Simvastatin in Critically Ill Patients with Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of simvastatin in critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is unclear. METHODS: In an ongoing international, multifactorial, adaptive platform, randomized, controlled trial, we evaluated simvastatin (80 mg daily) as compared with no statin (control) in critically ill patients with Covid-19 who were not receiving statins at baseline. The primary outcome was respiratory and cardiovascular organ support-free days, assessed on an ordinal scale combining in-hospital death (assigned a value of -1) and days free of organ support through day 21 in survivors; the analyis used a Bayesian hierarchical ordinal model. The adaptive design included prespecified statistical stopping criteria for superiority (>99% posterior probability that the odds ratio was >1) and futility (>95% posterior probability that the odds ratio was <1.2). RESULTS: Enrollment began on October 28, 2020. On January 8, 2023, enrollment was closed on the basis of a low anticipated likelihood that prespecified stopping criteria would be met as Covid-19 cases decreased. The final analysis included 2684 critically ill patients. The median number of organ support-free days was 11 (interquartile range, -1 to 17) in the simvastatin group and 7 (interquartile range, -1 to 16) in the control group; the posterior median adjusted odds ratio was 1.15 (95% credible interval, 0.98 to 1.34) for simvastatin as compared with control, yielding a 95.9% posterior probability of superiority. At 90 days, the hazard ratio for survival was 1.12 (95% credible interval, 0.95 to 1.32), yielding a 91.9% posterior probability of superiority of simvastatin. The results of secondary analyses were consistent with those of the primary analysis. Serious adverse events, such as elevated levels of liver enzymes and creatine kinase, were reported more frequently with simvastatin than with control. CONCLUSIONS: Although recruitment was stopped because cases had decreased, among critically ill patients with Covid-19, simvastatin did not meet the prespecified criteria for superiority to control. (REMAP-CAP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02735707.).

Conservative versus liberal oxygenation targets in critically ill children (Oxy-PICU): a UK multicentre, open, parallel-group, randomised clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The optimal target for systemic oxygenation in critically ill children is unknown. Liberal oxygenation is widely practiced, but has been associated with harm in paediatric patients. We aimed to evaluate whether conservative oxygenation would reduce duration of organ support or incidence of death compared to standard care. METHODS: Oxy-PICU was a pragmatic, multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial in 15 UK paediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Children admitted as an emergency, who were older than 38 weeks corrected gestational age and younger than 16 years receiving invasive ventilation and supplemental oxygen were randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio via a concealed, central, web-based randomisation system to conservative peripheral oxygen saturations ([SpO2] 88-92%) or liberal (SpO2 >94%) targets. The primary outcome was the duration of organ support at 30 days following random allocation, a rank-based endpoint with death either on or before day 30 as the worst outcome (a score equating to 31 days of organ support), with survivors assigned a score between 1 and 30 depending on the number of calendar days of organ support received. The primary effect estimate was the probabilistic index, a value greater than 0·5 indicating more than 50% probability that conservative oxygenation is superior to liberal oxygenation for a randomly selected patient. All participants in whom consent was available were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. The completed study was registered with the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN92103439). FINDINGS: Between Sept 1, 2020, and May 15, 2022, 2040 children were randomly allocated to conservative or liberal oxygenation groups. Consent was available for 1872 (92%) of 2040 children. The conservative oxygenation group comprised 939 children (528 [57%] of 927 were female and 399 [43%] of 927 were male) and the liberal oxygenation group included 933 children (511 [56%] of 920 were female and 409 [45%] of 920 were male). Duration of organ support or death in the first 30 days was significantly lower in the conservative oxygenation group (probabilistic index 0·53, 95% CI 0·50-0·55; p=0·04 Wilcoxon rank-sum test, adjusted odds ratio 0·84 [95% CI 0·72-0·99]). Prespecified adverse events were reported in 24 (3%) of 939 patients in the conservative oxygenation group and 36 (4%) of 933 patients in the liberal oxygenation group. INTERPRETATION: Among invasively ventilated children who were admitted as an emergency to a PICU receiving supplemental oxygen, a conservative oxygenation target resulted in a small, but significant, greater probability of a better outcome in terms of duration of organ support at 30 days or death when compared with a liberal oxygenation target. Widespread adoption of a conservative oxygenation saturation target (SpO2 88-92%) could help improve outcomes and reduce costs for the sickest children admitted to PICUs. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Temporal Trends in Mortality of Critically Ill Patients with Sepsis in the United Kingdom, 1988-2019.

Rationale: Sepsis is a frequent cause of ICU admission and mortality. Objectives: To evaluate temporal trends in the presentation and outcomes of patients admitted to the ICU with sepsis and to assess the contribution of changing case mix to outcomes. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to 261 ICUs in the United Kingdom during 1988-1990 and 1996-2019 with nonsurgical sepsis. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 426,812 patients met study inclusion criteria. The patients had a median (interquartile range) age of 66 (53-75) years, and 55.6% were male. The most common sites of infection were respiratory (60.9%), genitourinary (11.5%), and gastrointestinal (10.3%). Compared with patients in 1988-1990, patients in 2017-2019 were older (median age, 66 vs. 63 yr), were less acutely ill (median Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II acute physiology score, 14 vs. 20), and more often had genitourinary sepsis (13.4% vs. 2.0%). Hospital mortality decreased from 54.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 51.0-58.1%) in 1988-1990 to 32.4% (95% CI, 32.1-32.7%) in 2017-2019, with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.64 (95% CI, 0.54-0.75). The adjusted absolute hospital mortality reduction from 1988-1990 to 2017-2019 was 8.8% (95% CI, 5.6-12.1). Thus, of the observed 22.2-percentage point reduction in hospital mortality, 13.4 percentage points (60% of total reduction) were explained by case mix changes, whereas 8.8 percentage points (40% of total reduction) were not explained by measured factors and may be a result of improvements in ICU management. Conclusions: Over a 30-year period, mortality for ICU admissions with sepsis decreased substantially. Although changes in case mix accounted for the majority of observed mortality reduction, there was an 8.8-percentage point reduction in mortality not explained by case mix.

Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial to Evaluate a Permissive Blood Pressure Target Versus Usual Care in Critically Ill Children with Hypotension (PRESSURE).

OBJECTIVES: Management of hypotension is a fundamental part of pediatric critical care, with cardiovascular support in the form of fluids or vasoactive drugs offered to every hypotensive child. However, optimal blood pressure (BP) targets are unknown. The PRotocolised Evaluation of PermiSSive BP Targets Versus Usual CaRE (PRESSURE) trial aims to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a permissive mean arterial pressure (MAP) target of greater than a fifth centile for age compared with usual care. DESIGN: Pragmatic, open, multicenter, parallel-group randomized control trial (RCT) with integrated economic evaluation. SETTING: Eighteen PICUs across the United Kingdom. PATIENTS: Infants and children older than 37 weeks corrected gestational age to 16 years accepted to a participating PICU, on mechanical ventilation and receiving vasoactive drugs for hypotension. INTERVENTIONS: Adjustment of hemodynamic support to achieve a permissive MAP target greater than fifth centile for age during invasive mechanical ventilation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Randomization is 1:1 to a permissive MAP target or usual care, stratified by site and age group. Due to the emergency nature of the treatment, approaching patients for written informed consent will be deferred until after randomization. The primary clinical outcome is a composite of death and days of ventilatory support at 30 days. Baseline demographics and clinical status will be recorded as well as daily measures of BP and organ support, and discharge outcomes. This RCT received Health Research Authority approval (reference 289545), and a favorable ethical opinion from the East of England-Cambridge South Research Ethics Committee on May 10, 2021 (reference number 21/EE/0084). The trial is registered and has an International Standard RCT Number (reference 20609635). CONCLUSIONS: Trial findings will be disseminated in U.K. national and international conferences and in peer-reviewed journals.

The effect of blood pressure on mortality following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a retrospective cohort study of the United Kingdom Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre database.

BACKGROUND: Hypotension following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) may cause secondary brain injury and increase mortality rates. Current guidelines recommend avoiding hypotension. However, the optimal blood pressure following OHCA is unknown. We hypothesised that exposure to hypotension and hypertension in the first 24 h in ICU would be associated with mortality following OHCA. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of OHCA patients included in the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Case Mix Programme from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2019. Restricted cubic splines were created following adjustment for important prognostic variables. We report the adjusted odds ratio for associations between lowest and highest mean arterial pressure (MAP) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) in the first 24 h of ICU care and hospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 32,349 patients were included in the analysis. Hospital mortality was 56.2%. The median lowest and highest MAP and SBP were similar in survivors and non-survivors. Both hypotension and hypertension were associated with increased mortality. Patients who had a lowest recorded MAP in the range 60-63 mmHg had the lowest associated mortality. Patients who had a highest recorded MAP in the range 95-104 mmHg had the lowest associated mortality. The association between SBP and mortality followed a similar pattern to MAP. CONCLUSIONS: We found an association between hypotension and hypertension in the first 24 h in ICU and mortality following OHCA. The inability to distinguish between the median blood pressure of survivors and non-survivors indicates the need for research into individualised blood pressure targets for survivors following OHCA.

Randomization to a Liberal Versus Conservative Oxygenation Target: Redox Responses in Critically Ill Children.

RATIONALE: Optimal systemic oxygenation targets in pediatric critical illness are unknown. A U-shaped relationship exists between blood oxygen levels and PICU mortality. Redox stress or iatrogenic injury from intensive treatments are potential mechanisms of harm from hyperoxia. OBJECTIVES: To measure biomarkers of oxidative status in children admitted to PICU and randomized to conservative (oxygen-hemoglobin saturation [Sp o2 ] 88-92%) versus liberal (Sp o2 > 94%) peripheral oxygenation targets. DESIGN: Mechanistic substudy nested within the Oxygen in PICU (Oxy-PICU) pilot randomized feasibility clinical trial ( ClinicalTrials.gov : NCT03040570). SETTING: Three U.K. mixed medical and surgical PICUs in university hospitals. PATIENTS: Seventy-five eligible patients randomized to the Oxy-PICU randomized feasibility clinical trial. INTERVENTIONS: Randomization to a conservative (Sp o2 88-92%) versus liberal (Sp o2 > 94%) peripheral oxygenation target. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Blood and urine samples were collected at two timepoints: less than 24 hours and up to 72 hours from randomization in trial participants (March 2017 to July 2017). Plasma was analyzed for markers of ischemic/oxidative response, namely thiobarbituric acid-reactive substances (TBARS; lipid peroxidation marker) and ischemia-modified albumin (protein oxidation marker). Total urinary nitrate/nitrite was measured as a marker of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species (RONS). Blood hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-1a messenger RNA (mRNA) expression (hypoxia response gene) was measured by reverse transcription- polymerase chain reaction. Total urinary nitrate/nitrite levels were greater in the liberal compared with conservative oxygenation group at 72 hours (median difference 32.6 µmol/mmol of creatinine [95% CI 13.7-93.6]; p < 0.002, Mann-Whitney test). HIF-1a mRNA expression was increased in the conservative group compared with liberal in less than 24-hour samples (6.0-fold [95% CI 1.3-24.0]; p = 0.032). There were no significant differences in TBARS or ischemia-modified albumin. CONCLUSIONS: On comparing liberal with conservative oxygenation targets, we show, first, significant redox response (increase in urinary markers of RONS), but no changes in markers of lipid or protein oxidation. We also show what appears to be an early hypoxic response (increase in HIF-1a gene expression) in subjects exposed to conservative rather than liberal oxygenation targets.

Effect of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor and Angiotensin Receptor Blocker Initiation on Organ Support-Free Days in Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective: To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non-critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was organ support-free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS: On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support-free days among critically ill patients was 10 (-1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (-1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support-free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707.

The Association Between the Decision to Withdraw Life-Sustaining Therapy and Patient Mortality in U.K. ICUs.

OBJECTIVES: Differences in decisions to limit life-sustaining therapy are often supported by perceptions that patients receive unnecessary and expensive treatment which provide negligible survival benefit. However, the assumption behind those beliefs-that is, that life-sustaining therapy provides no significant marginal survival benefit-remains unproven. Our objective was to quantify the effects of variations in decisions to withdraw or withhold life-sustaining treatment on 180-day mortality in critically ill patients. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study of a national clinical database. SETTING: Adult ICUs participating in the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center Case Mix Program in the United Kingdom. PATIENTS: Adult patients admitted to general ICUs between April 1, 2009, and March 31, 2016. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: During the study period, 795,721 patients were admitted to 247 ICUs across the United Kingdom. A decision to withdraw or withhold life-sustaining treatment was made for 92,327 patients (11.6%). A multilevel model approach was used to estimate ICU-level practice variation. The ICU-level practice variation was then used as an instrument to measure the effects of decision to withdraw or withhold life-sustaining treatment on 180-day mortality. The marginal population was estimated to be 5.9% of the total cohort. A decision to withdraw or withhold life-sustaining treatment was associated with a marginal increase in 180-day mortality of 25.6% (95% CI, 23.2-27.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Decision to withdraw or withhold life-sustaining treatment in critically ill adults in the United Kingdom was associated with increased 180-day mortality in the marginal patients. The increased mortality from a decision to withdraw or withhold life-sustaining treatment in the marginal patient may be informative when establishing patients' preferences and evaluating the cost-effectiveness of intensive treatments.

Does Unprecedented ICU Capacity Strain, As Experienced During the COVID-19 Pandemic, Impact Patient Outcome?

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether patients admitted to an ICU during times of unprecedented ICU capacity strain, during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom, experienced a higher risk of death. DESIGN: Multicenter, observational cohort study using routine clinical audit data. SETTING: Adult general ICUs participating the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. PATIENTS: One-hundred thirty-thousand six-hundred eighty-nine patients admitted to 210 adult general ICUs in 207 hospitals. INTERVENTIONS: Multilevel, mixed effects, logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between levels of ICU capacity strain on the day of admission (typical low, typical, typical high, pandemic high, and pandemic extreme) and risk-adjusted hospital mortality. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In adjusted analyses, compared with patients admitted during periods of typical ICU capacity strain, we found that COVID-19 patients admitted during periods of pandemic high or pandemic extreme ICU capacity strain during the first wave had no difference in hospital mortality, whereas those admitted during the pandemic high or pandemic extreme ICU capacity strain in the second wave had a 17% (odds ratio [OR], 1.17; 95% CI, 1.05-1.30) and 15% (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.00-1.31) higher odds of hospital mortality, respectively. For non-COVID-19 patients, there was little difference in trend between waves, with those admitted during periods of pandemic high and pandemic extreme ICU capacity strain having 16% (OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.08-1.25) and 30% (OR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.14-1.48) higher overall odds of acute hospital mortality, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: For patients admitted to ICU during the pandemic, unprecedented levels of ICU capacity strain were significantly associated with higher acute hospital mortality, after accounting for differences in baseline characteristics. Further study into possible differences in the provision of care and outcome for COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients is needed.

Protocol for a Randomized Multiple Center Trial of Conservative Versus Liberal Oxygenation Targets in Critically Ill Children (Oxy-PICU): Oxygen in Pediatric Intensive Care.

OBJECTIVES: Oxygen administration is a fundamental part of pediatric critical care, with supplemental oxygen offered to nearly every acutely unwell child. However, optimal targets for systemic oxygenation are unknown. Oxy-PICU aims to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a conservative peripheral oxygen saturation (Sp o2 ) target of 88-92% compared with a liberal target of more than 94%. DESIGN: Pragmatic, open, multiple-center, parallel group randomized control trial with integrated economic evaluation. SETTING: Fifteen PICUs across England, Wales, and Scotland. PATIENTS: Infants and children age more than 38 week-corrected gestational age to 16 years who are accepted to a participating PICU as an unplanned admission and receiving invasive mechanical ventilation with supplemental oxygen for abnormal gas exchange. INTERVENTION: Adjustment of ventilation and inspired oxygen settings to achieve an Sp o2 target of 88-92% during invasive mechanical ventilation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Randomization is 1:1 to a liberal Sp o2 target of more than 94% or a conservative Sp o2 target of 88-92% (inclusive), using minimization with a random component. Minimization will be performed on: age, site, primary reason for admission, and severity of abnormality of gas exchange. Due to the emergency nature of the treatment, approaching patients for written informed consent will be deferred to after randomization. The primary clinical outcome is a composite of death and days of organ support at 30 days. Baseline demographics and clinical status will be recorded as well as daily measures of oxygenation and organ support, and discharge outcomes. This trial received Health Research Authority approval on December 23, 2019 (reference: 272768), including a favorable ethical opinion from the East of England-Cambridge South Research Ethics Committee (reference number: 19/EE/0362). Trial findings will be disseminated in national and international conferences and peer-reviewed journals.

Trends in Intensive Care for Patients with COVID-19 in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

Rationale: By describing trends in intensive care for patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) we aim to support clinical learning, service planning, and hypothesis generation.Objectives: To describe variation in ICU admission rates over time and by geography during the first wave of the epidemic in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland; to describe trends in patient characteristics on admission to ICU, first-24-hours physiology in ICU, processes of care in ICU and patient outcomes; and to explore deviations in trends during the peak period.Methods: A cohort of 10,741 patients with COVID-19 in the Case Mix Program national clinical audit from February 1 to July 31, 2020, was used. Analyses were stratified by time period (prepeak, peak, and postpeak periods) and geographical region. Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted differences in 28-day in-hospital mortality between periods.Measurements and Main Results: Admissions to ICUs peaked almost simultaneously across regions but varied 4.6-fold in magnitude. Compared with patients admitted in the prepeak period, patients admitted in the postpeak period were slightly younger but with higher degrees of dependency and comorbidity on admission to ICUs and more deranged first-24-hours physiology. Despite this, receipt of invasive ventilation and renal replacement therapy decreased, and adjusted 28-day in-hospital mortality was reduced by 11.8% (95% confidence interval, 8.7%-15.0%). Many variables exhibited u-shaped or n-shaped curves during the peak.Conclusions: The population of patients with COVID-19 admitted to ICUs, and the processes of care in ICUs, changed over the first wave of the epidemic. After adjustment for important risk factors, there was a substantial improvement in patient outcomes.

Effect of High-Flow Nasal Cannula Therapy vs Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Therapy on Liberation From Respiratory Support in Acutely Ill Children Admitted to Pediatric Critical Care Units: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The optimal first-line mode of noninvasive respiratory support for acutely ill children is not known. Objective: To evaluate the noninferiority of high-flow nasal cannula therapy (HFNC) as the first-line mode of noninvasive respiratory support for acute illness, compared with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), for time to liberation from all forms of respiratory support. Design, Setting, and Participants: Pragmatic, multicenter, randomized noninferiority clinical trial conducted in 24 pediatric critical care units in the United Kingdom among 600 acutely ill children aged 0 to 15 years who were clinically assessed to require noninvasive respiratory support, recruited between August 2019 and November 2021, with last follow-up completed in March 2022. Interventions: Patients were randomized 1:1 to commence either HFNC at a flow rate based on patient weight (n = 301) or CPAP of 7 to 8 cm H2O (n = 299). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was time from randomization to liberation from respiratory support, defined as the start of a 48-hour period during which a participant was free from all forms of respiratory support (invasive or noninvasive), assessed against a noninferiority margin of an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.75. Seven secondary outcomes were assessed, including mortality at critical care unit discharge, intubation within 48 hours, and use of sedation. Results: Of the 600 randomized children, consent was not obtained for 5 (HFNC: 1; CPAP: 4) and respiratory support was not started in 22 (HFNC: 5; CPAP: 17); 573 children (HFNC: 295; CPAP: 278) were included in the primary analysis (median age, 9 months; 226 girls [39%]). The median time to liberation in the HFNC group was 52.9 hours (95% CI, 46.0-60.9 hours) vs 47.9 hours (95% CI, 40.5-55.7 hours) in the CPAP group (absolute difference, 5.0 hours [95% CI -10.1 to 17.4 hours]; adjusted hazard ratio 1.03 [1-sided 97.5% CI, 0.86-∞]). This met the criterion for noninferiority. Of the 7 prespecified secondary outcomes, 3 were significantly lower in the HFNC group: use of sedation (27.7% vs 37%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.39-0.88]); mean duration of critical care stay (5 days vs 7.4 days; adjusted mean difference, -3 days [95% CI, -5.1 to -1 days]); and mean duration of acute hospital stay (13.8 days vs 19.5 days; adjusted mean difference, -7.6 days [95% CI, -13.2 to -1.9 days]). The most common adverse event was nasal trauma (HFNC: 6/295 [2.0%]; CPAP: 18/278 [6.5%]). Conclusions and Relevance: Among acutely ill children clinically assessed to require noninvasive respiratory support in a pediatric critical care unit, HFNC compared with CPAP met the criterion for noninferiority for time to liberation from respiratory support. Trial Registration: ISRCTN.org Identifier: ISRCTN60048867.

Effect of High-Flow Nasal Cannula Therapy vs Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Following Extubation on Liberation From Respiratory Support in Critically Ill Children: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The optimal first-line mode of noninvasive respiratory support following extubation of critically ill children is not known. Objective: To evaluate the noninferiority of high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) therapy as the first-line mode of noninvasive respiratory support following extubation, compared with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), on time to liberation from respiratory support. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a pragmatic, multicenter, randomized, noninferiority trial conducted at 22 pediatric intensive care units in the United Kingdom. Six hundred children aged 0 to 15 years clinically assessed to require noninvasive respiratory support within 72 hours of extubation were recruited between August 8, 2019, and May 18, 2020, with last follow-up completed on November 22, 2020. Interventions: Patients were randomized 1:1 to start either HFNC at a flow rate based on patient weight (n = 299) or CPAP of 7 to 8 cm H2O (n = 301). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was time from randomization to liberation from respiratory support, defined as the start of a 48-hour period during which the child was free from all forms of respiratory support (invasive or noninvasive), assessed against a noninferiority margin of an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.75. There were 6 secondary outcomes, including mortality at day 180 and reintubation within 48 hours. Results: Of the 600 children who were randomized, 553 children (HFNC, 281; CPAP, 272) were included in the primary analysis (median age, 3 months; 241 girls [44%]). HFNC failed to meet noninferiority, with a median time to liberation of 50.5 hours (95% CI, 43.0-67.9) vs 42.9 hours (95% CI, 30.5-48.2) for CPAP (adjusted HR, 0.83; 1-sided 97.5% CI, 0.70-∞). Similar results were seen across prespecified subgroups. Of the 6 prespecified secondary outcomes, 5 showed no significant difference, including the rate of reintubation within 48 hours (13.3% for HFNC vs 11.5 % for CPAP). Mortality at day 180 was significantly higher for HFNC (5.6% vs 2.4% for CPAP; adjusted odds ratio, 3.07 [95% CI, 1.1-8.8]). The most common adverse events were abdominal distension (HFNC: 8/281 [2.8%] vs CPAP: 7/272 [2.6%]) and nasal/facial trauma (HFNC: 14/281 [5.0%] vs CPAP: 15/272 [5.5%]). Conclusions and Relevance: Among critically ill children requiring noninvasive respiratory support following extubation, HFNC compared with CPAP following extubation failed to meet the criterion for noninferiority for time to liberation from respiratory support. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN60048867.

Prognostic Factors for 30-Day Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019: An Observational Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: To identify characteristics that predict 30-day mortality among patients critically ill with coronavirus disease 2019 in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: A total of 258 adult critical care units. PATIENTS: A total of 10,362 patients with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 with a start of critical care between March 1, 2020, and June 22, 2020, of whom 9,990 were eligible (excluding patients with a duration of critical care less than 24 hr or missing core variables). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The main outcome measure was time to death within 30 days of the start of critical care. Of 9,990 eligible patients (median age 60 yr, 70% male), 3,933 died within 30 days of the start of critical care. As of July 22, 2020, 189 patients were still receiving critical care and a further 446 were still in acute hospital. Data were missing for between 0.1% and 7.2% of patients across prognostic factors. We imputed missing data ten-fold, using fully conditional specification and continuous variables were modeled using restricted cubic splines. Associations between the candidate prognostic factors and time to death within 30 days of the start of critical care were determined after adjustment for multiple variables with Cox proportional hazards modeling. Significant associations were identified for age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, prior dependency, immunocompromise, lowest systolic blood pressure, highest heart rate, highest respiratory rate, Pao2/Fio2 ratio (and interaction with mechanical ventilation), highest blood lactate concentration, highest serum urea, and lowest platelet count over the first 24 hours of critical care. Nonsignificant associations were found for sex, sedation, highest temperature, and lowest hemoglobin concentration. CONCLUSIONS: We identified patient characteristics that predict an increased likelihood of death within 30 days of the start of critical care for patients with coronavirus disease 2019. These findings may support development of a prediction model for benchmarking critical care providers.

Treatment strategies for new onset atrial fibrillation in patients treated on an intensive care unit: a systematic scoping review.

BACKGROUND: New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) in patients treated on an intensive care unit (ICU) is common and associated with significant morbidity and mortality. We undertook a systematic scoping review to summarise comparative evidence to inform NOAF management for patients admitted to ICU. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science, OpenGrey, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, ISRCTN, ClinicalTrials.gov, EU Clinical Trials register, additional WHO ICTRP trial databases, and NIHR Clinical Trials Gateway in March 2019. We included studies evaluating treatment or prevention strategies for NOAF or acute anticoagulation in general medical, surgical or mixed adult ICUs. We extracted study details, population characteristics, intervention and comparator(s), methods addressing confounding, results, and recommendations for future research onto study-specific forms. RESULTS: Of 3,651 citations, 42 articles were eligible: 25 primary studies, 12 review articles and 5 surveys/opinion papers. Definitions of NOAF varied between NOAF lasting 30 s to NOAF lasting > 24 h. Only one comparative study investigated effects of anticoagulation. Evidence from small RCTs suggests calcium channel blockers (CCBs) result in slower rhythm control than beta blockers (1 study), and more cardiovascular instability than amiodarone (1 study). Evidence from 4 non-randomised studies suggests beta blocker and amiodarone therapy may be equivalent in respect to rhythm control. Beta blockers may be associated with improved survival compared to amiodarone, CCBs, and digoxin, though supporting evidence is subject to confounding. Currently, the limited evidence does not support therapeutic anticoagulation during ICU admission. CONCLUSIONS: From the limited evidence available beta blockers or amiodarone may be superior to CCBs as first line therapy in undifferentiated patients in ICU. The little evidence available does not support therapeutic anticoagulation for NOAF whilst patients are critically ill. Consensus definitions for NOAF, rate and rhythm control are needed.

Effect of Lower Tidal Volume Ventilation Facilitated by Extracorporeal Carbon Dioxide Removal vs Standard Care Ventilation on 90-Day Mortality in Patients With Acute Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure: The REST Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: In patients who require mechanical ventilation for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure, further reduction in tidal volumes, compared with conventional low tidal volume ventilation, may improve outcomes. Objective: To determine whether lower tidal volume mechanical ventilation using extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal improves outcomes in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter, randomized, allocation-concealed, open-label, pragmatic clinical trial enrolled 412 adult patients receiving mechanical ventilation for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure, of a planned sample size of 1120, between May 2016 and December 2019 from 51 intensive care units in the UK. Follow-up ended on March 11, 2020. Interventions: Participants were randomized to receive lower tidal volume ventilation facilitated by extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal for at least 48 hours (n = 202) or standard care with conventional low tidal volume ventilation (n = 210). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality 90 days after randomization. Prespecified secondary outcomes included ventilator-free days at day 28 and adverse event rates. Results: Among 412 patients who were randomized (mean age, 59 years; 143 [35%] women), 405 (98%) completed the trial. The trial was stopped early because of futility and feasibility following recommendations from the data monitoring and ethics committee. The 90-day mortality rate was 41.5% in the lower tidal volume ventilation with extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal group vs 39.5% in the standard care group (risk ratio, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.83-1.33]; difference, 2.0% [95% CI, -7.6% to 11.5%]; P = .68). There were significantly fewer mean ventilator-free days in the extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal group compared with the standard care group (7.1 [95% CI, 5.9-8.3] vs 9.2 [95% CI, 7.9-10.4] days; mean difference, -2.1 [95% CI, -3.8 to -0.3]; P = .02). Serious adverse events were reported for 62 patients (31%) in the extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal group and 18 (9%) in the standard care group, including intracranial hemorrhage in 9 patients (4.5%) vs 0 (0%) and bleeding at other sites in 6 (3.0%) vs 1 (0.5%) in the extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal group vs the control group. Overall, 21 patients experienced 22 serious adverse events related to the study device. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure, the use of extracorporeal carbon dioxide removal to facilitate lower tidal volume mechanical ventilation, compared with conventional low tidal volume mechanical ventilation, did not significantly reduce 90-day mortality. However, due to early termination, the study may have been underpowered to detect a clinically important difference. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02654327.

Early, Goal-Directed Therapy for Septic Shock - A Patient-Level Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: After a single-center trial and observational studies suggesting that early, goal-directed therapy (EGDT) reduced mortality from septic shock, three multicenter trials (ProCESS, ARISE, and ProMISe) showed no benefit. This meta-analysis of individual patient data from the three recent trials was designed prospectively to improve statistical power and explore heterogeneity of treatment effect of EGDT. METHODS: We harmonized entry criteria, intervention protocols, outcomes, resource-use measures, and data collection across the trials and specified all analyses before unblinding. After completion of the trials, we pooled data, excluding the protocol-based standard-therapy group from the ProCESS trial, and resolved residual differences. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included 1-year survival, organ support, and hospitalization costs. We tested for treatment-by-subgroup interactions for 16 patient characteristics and 6 care-delivery characteristics. RESULTS: We studied 3723 patients at 138 hospitals in seven countries. Mortality at 90 days was similar for EGDT (462 of 1852 patients [24.9%]) and usual care (475 of 1871 patients [25.4%]); the adjusted odds ratio was 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.14; P=0.68). EGDT was associated with greater mean (±SD) use of intensive care (5.3±7.1 vs. 4.9±7.0 days, P=0.04) and cardiovascular support (1.9±3.7 vs. 1.6±2.9 days, P=0.01) than was usual care; other outcomes did not differ significantly, although average costs were higher with EGDT. Subgroup analyses showed no benefit from EGDT for patients with worse shock (higher serum lactate level, combined hypotension and hyperlactatemia, or higher predicted risk of death) or for hospitals with a lower propensity to use vasopressors or fluids during usual resuscitation. CONCLUSIONS: In this meta-analysis of individual patient data, EGDT did not result in better outcomes than usual care and was associated with higher hospitalization costs across a broad range of patient and hospital characteristics. (Funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences and others; PRISM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02030158 .).

Higher ICU Capacity Strain Is Associated With Increased Acute Mortality in Closed ICUs.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether patients admitted to an ICU during times of strain, when compared with its own norm (i.e. accommodating a greater number of patients, higher acuity of illness, or frequent turnover), is associated with a higher risk of death in ICUs with closed models of intensivist staffing. DESIGN: We conducted a large, multicenter, observational cohort study. Multilevel mixed effects logistic regression was used to examine relationships for three measures of ICU strain (bed census, severity-weighted bed census, and activity-weighted bed census) on the day of admission with risk-adjusted acute hospital mortality. SETTING: Pooled case mix and outcome database of adult general ICUs participating in the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Case Mix Programme. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The analysis included 149,310 patients admitted to 215 adult general ICUs in 213 hospitals in United Kingdom, Wales, and Northern Ireland. A relative lower strain in ICU capacity as measured by bed census on the calendar day (daytime hours) of admission was associated with decreased risk-adjusted acute hospital mortality (odds ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.99; p = 0.01), whereas a nonsignificant association was seen between higher strain and increased acute hospital mortality (odds ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.00-1.10; p = 0.07). The relationship between periods of high ICU strain and acute hospital mortality was strongest when bed census was composed of higher acuity patients (odds ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.10; p = 0.03). No relationship was seen between high strain and ICU mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In closed staffing models of care, variations in bed census within individual ICUs was associated with patient's predicted risk of acute hospital mortality, particularly when its standardized bed census consisted of sicker patients.

Demographic Shifts, Case Mix, Activity, and Outcome for Elderly Patients Admitted to Adult General ICUs in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

OBJECTIVES: Major increases in the proportion of elderly people in the population are predicted worldwide. These population increases, along with improving therapeutic options and more aggressive treatment of elderly patients, will have major impact on the future need for healthcare resources, including critical care. Our objectives were to explore the trends in admissions, resource use, and risk-adjusted hospital mortality for older patients, admitted over a 20-year period between 1997 and 2016 to adult general ICUs in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. DESIGN: RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL CLINICAL AUDIT DATABASE. SETTING: The Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme Database, the national clinical audit for adult general ICUs in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. PATIENTS: All adult patients 16 years old or older admitted to adult general ICUs contributing data to the Case Mix Programme Database between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2016. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The annual number, trends, and outcomes for patients across four age bands (16-64, 65-74, 75-84, and 85+ yr) admitted to ICUs contributing to the Case Mix Programme Database from 1997 to 2016 were examined. Case mix, activity, and outcome were described in detail for the most recent cohort of patients admitted in 2015-2016. Between 1997 to 2016, the annual number of admissions to ICU of patients in the older age bands increased disproportionately, with increases that could not be explained solely by general U.K. demographic shifts. The risk-adjusted acute hospital mortality decreased significantly within each age band over the 20-year period of the study. Although acute severity at ICU admission was comparable with that of the younger age group, apart from cardiovascular and renal dysfunction, older patients received less organ support. Older patients stayed longer in hospital post-ICU discharge, and hospital mortality increased with age, but the majority of patients surviving to hospital discharge returned home. CONCLUSIONS: Over the past two decades, elderly patients have been more commonly admitted to ICU than can be explained solely by the demographic shift. Importantly, as with the wider population, outcomes in elderly patients admitted to ICU are improving over time, with most patients returning home.

Maternal Risk Modeling in Critical Care-Development of a Multivariable Risk Prediction Model for Death and Prolonged Intensive Care.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop and validate an accurate risk prediction model for both mortality and a combined outcome of mortality and morbidity for maternal admissions to critical care. DESIGN: We used data from a high-quality prospectively collected national database, supported with literature review and expert opinion. We tested univariable associations between each risk factor and outcome. We then developed two separate multivariable logistic regression models for the outcomes of acute hospital mortality and death or prolonged ICU length of stay. We validated two parsimonious risk prediction models specific for a maternal population. SETTING: The Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Case Mix Programme is the national clinical audit for adult critical care in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. PATIENTS: All female admissions to adult general critical care units, for the period January 1, 2007-December 31, 2016, 16-50 years old, and admitted either while pregnant or within 42 days of delivery-a cohort of 15,480 women. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We aimed to develop and validate an accurate risk prediction model for both mortality and a combined outcome of mortality and morbidity for maternal admissions to critical care. For the primary outcome of acute hospital mortality, our parsimonious risk model consisting of eight variables had an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.96 (95% CI, 0.91-1.00); these variables are commonly available for all maternal admissions. For the secondary composite outcome of death or ICU length of stay greater than 48 hours, the risk model consisting of 17 variables had an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.78-0.83). CONCLUSIONS: We developed risk prediction models specific to the maternal critical care population. The models compare favorably against general adult ICU risk prediction models in current use within this population.