Macroprolactin over time: Is there any point in rechecking it in people with a persistently elevated serum prolactin?

OBJECTIVE AND DESIGN: Macroprolactinemia may influence the interpretation of serum prolactin levels-a recognised phenomenon since 1981. The degree of macroprolactinaemia over time is less well described. We determined how macroprolactin status (based on polyethylene glycol (PEG) precipitation) varied by analysing serial measurements in hyperprolactinaemic individuals over a period of 9 years. PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS: Results from 1810 individuals were included. All serum total prolactin results (measured using Roche Cobas 8000 analyser) were extracted from the laboratory information system for the period 1 January 2012 to 1 April 2021, along with relevant patient demographic/test data. Samples with a macroprolactin screening test performed (on samples with prolactin > 700 miu/L) were included in the main analysis. RESULTS: During the study period, 2782 macroprolactin checks were performed (12.5% of all prolactin tests) in 1810 individuals (599 males/2183 females, median-age: 35, interquartile range: 25-47, range: 16-93 years). Multiple macroprolactin checks were carried out on 465 patients (1437 measurements) with 94 patients (141 measurements) screening positive (<60% recovery). Only 19 patients (18 female) had at least one result above and one below the 60% screening cut-off, with 10 of these patients having results close to the 60% cut-off; in 9 patients, results were clearly different between repeat samples. In seven cases, the adjusted monomeric prolactin showed a potentially clinically significant difference. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, only 19/465 patients appeared to change macroprolactin status based on a 60% PEG recovery cut-off. The majority of these 19 patients were on antipsychotic/antidepressant medication(s) or had a prolactinoma; in only 7 did monomeric prolactin change significantly. This suggests that once macroprolactin status has been determined, clinical decision making is rarely affected by repeating it.

Counting the lifetime cost of obesity: Analysis based on national England data.

AIM: Obesity has a significant impact on all-cause mortality rate and overall health care resource use (HCRU). These outcomes are also strongly linked to age, sex and local deprivation of the population. We aimed to establish the lifetime costs of obesity by demographic group/geographic area using published mortality rates and HCRU use for integrated care boards (ICB) in England in the context of costs of therapeutic intervention. METHODS: Population and expected mortality rates by age, sex and deprivation were obtained from national data. Obesity class prevalence was taken from the health of the nation study. The published impact of obesity by age, group, sex and deprivation on mortality and HCRU were applied to estimate life years lost and lifetime HCRU [by sex, age band and body mass index (BMI) class for each ICB]. The year 2019 was chosen as the study basis data to avoid influences of COVID-19 pandemic on obesity rates with application of 2022/23 HCRU values. Outcomes including prevalence, deaths, life years lost, HCRU and lifetime HCRU were compared by age and sex groups across four BMI classes normal/underweight (BMI <25 kg/m2 ), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m2 ), obese class I and II (30-39.9 kg/m2 ), and obese class III (≥40), with benchmarking being set against all population being BMI <25 kg/m2 overall and by each of the 42 ICBs. We also associated future life with deaths to provide an estimate of 'future life years lost' occurring each year. RESULTS: Total population aged >16 years was 45.4 million (51% female). PREVALENCE: 13.7 million (28% of the total adult population) had a BMI ≥30 mg/m2 and BMI ≥40 kg/m2 were 1.50 million (12%) of these 1.0 million (68%) were female and of these 0.6 million 40% were women aged 16-49 years. In addition, 35% of those with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 were in the top deprivation quintile (i.e. overall 20%). Mortality was based on expected deaths of 518K/year, and modelling suggested that if a BMI <25 kg/m2 was achieved in all individuals, the death rate would fall by 63K to 455K/year for the English population (12% reduction). For those with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 the predicted reduction was 12K deaths (54% lower); while in those aged 16-49 years with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 72% of deaths were linked to obesity. For future life years lost, we estimated 2.5 years were lost in people with BMI 30-39.9 kg/m2 6.7 years when BMI ≥40 kg/m2 . However, for those aged 16-49 years with a BMI ≥40 kg/m2 , 8.3 years were lost. HCRU, for weight reduction, the annual HCRU decrease from BMI ≥40 kg/m2 to BMI 30-39.9 kg/m2 was £342 per person and from BMI 30-39.9 to 25-29.9 kg/m2 the reduction was £316/person. However, lifetime costs were similar because of reduced life expectancy for obese individuals. In quality adjusted life years (QALY), overall, 791 689 future life years were lost (13.1% of all) in people with BMI ≥25 kg/m2 and were related to excess weight. When the NICE £30 000 per QALY value was applied to the estimated total 791 689 future life years lost then the potential QALY value reduction lost was equivalent to £24 billion/year or £522/person in the obese population. For morbidly obese men and women the potential QALY value lost was £2864/person/year. Regarding geography, across the 42 ICBs, we observed significant variation in the prevalence of BMI ≥40 (1.8%-4.3%), excess mortality (11.6%-15.4%) and HCRU linked to higher BMI (7.2%-8.8%). The areas with the greatest impact on HCRU were in the north-west, north-east and Midlands of England, while the south shows less impact. CONCLUSION: The expected increases in annual HCRU because of obesity, when considered over a lifetime, are being mitigated by the increased mortality of obese individuals. Our data suggest that simple short-term HCRU reduction brought about through BMI reduction will be insufficient to fund additional specialist weight reduction interventions. The HRCUs associated with BMI are not in most cases related to short-term health conditions. They are a cumulative result over a number of years, so for age 16-49 years reducing BMI from ≥40 to 30-39.9 kg/m2 might show an annual decrease in HCRU/person by £325/year for women and £80/year for men but this might not have immediately occurred within that year. For those aged >70 years reducing BMI from ≥40 to 30-39.9 kg/m2 might show an annual decrease in HCRU/person by £777/year for women and £796/year for men but also may not be manifest within that year. However, for the morbidly obese men and women, the potential QALY value lost was £2864 per person per year with the potential for these funds to be applied to intensive weight management programmes, including pharmacotherapy.

Effectiveness of locally produced ready-to-use supplementary foods on the prevention of stunting in children aged 6-23 months: a community-based trial from Pakistan.

Undernutrition is a major public health problem in developing countries. Around 40·2 % of children are stunted in Pakistan. This longitudinal study aimed to assess the effectiveness of locally produced ready-to-use supplementary foods in the prevention of stunting by detecting change in of children in intervention v. control arm against the 2006 WHO growth reference. A community-based non-randomised cluster-controlled trial was conducted from January 2018 to December 2020 in the district of Kurram, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. A total of 80 clusters (each cluster comprising ≈ 250-300 households) were defined in the catchment population of twelve health facilities. Children aged 6-18 months were recruited n 1680. The intervention included a daily ration of 50 g - locally produced ready-to-use-supplementary food (Wawa-Mum). The main outcome of this study was a change in length for age z-score (LAZ) v. WHO growth standards. Comparison between the interventions was by t test and ANOVA. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the association between stunting occurrence and the utilisation of locally produced supplement. Out of the total 1680, fifty-one out of the total 1680, 51·1 out of the total 1680 and 51·1 % (n 859) were male. Mean age 13·9 months (sd + 859) were male. Mean age 13·9 months (sd + -4·4). At baseline, 36·9 % (n 618) were stunted. In the intervention group, mean LAZ score significantly increased from -1·13(2·2 sd) at baseline to -0·93(1·8 sd) at 6-month follow-up (P value 0·01) compared with the control group. The incidence rate of stunting in the intervention arm was 1·3 v. 3·4 per person year in the control arm. The control group had a significantly increased likelihood of stunting (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1·7, 95 % CI 1·46, 2·05, P value < 0·001) v. the intervention group. Locally produced ready-to-use supplementary food is an effective intervention for reducing stunting in children below 2 years of age. This can be provided as part of a malnutrition prevention package to overcome the alarming rates of stunting in Pakistan.

Weight change following diagnosis with psychosis: a retrospective cohort study in Greater Manchester, UK.

INTRODUCTION: Weight gain in the months/years after diagnosis/treatment of severe enduring mental illness (SMI) is a major predictor of future diabetes, dysmetabolic profile and increased risk of cardiometabolic diseases. There is limited data on the longer-term profile of weight change in people with a history of SMI and how this may differ between individuals. We here report a retrospective study on weight change over the 5 years following an SMI diagnosis in Greater Manchester UK, an ethnically and culturally diverse community, with particular focus on comparing non-affective psychosis (NAP) vs affective psychosis (AP) diagnoses. METHODS: We undertook an anonymised search in the Greater Manchester Care Record (GMCR). We reviewed the health records of anyone who had been diagnosed for the first time with first episode psychosis, schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, delusional disorder (non-affective psychosis = NAP) or affective psychosis (AP). We analysed body mass index (BMI) change in the 5-year period following the first prescription of antipsychotic medication. All individuals had taken an antipsychotic agent for at least 3 months. The 5-year follow-up point was anywhere between 2003 and 2023. RESULTS: We identified 9125 people with the diagnoses above. NAP (n = 5618; 37.3% female) mean age 49.9 years; AP (n = 4131; 60.5% female) mean age 48.7 years. 27.0% of NAP were of non-White ethnicity vs 17.8% of AP individuals. A higher proportion of people diagnosed with NAP were in the highest quintile of social disadvantage 52.4% vs 39.5% for AP. There were no significant differences in baseline BMI profile. In a subsample with HbA1c data (n = 2103), mean HbA1c was higher in NAP at baseline (40.4 mmol/mol in NAP vs 36.7 mmol/mol for AP). At 5-year follow-up, there was similarity in both the overall % of individuals in the obese ≥ 30 kg/m2 category (39.8% NAP vs 39.7% AP), and % progressing from a normal healthy BMI transitioned to obese/overweight BMI (53.6% of NAP vs 55.6% with AP). 43.7% of those NAP with normal BMI remained at a healthy BMI vs 42.7% with AP. At 5-year follow-up for NAP, 83.1% of those with BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 stayed in this category vs 81.5% of AP. CONCLUSION: The results of this real-world longitudinal cohort study suggest that the changes in BMI with treatment of non-affective psychosis vs bipolar disorder are not significantly different, while 43% maintain a healthy weight in the first 5 years following antipsychotic prescription.

Number of CAG repeats and mortality in middle aged and older men.

DESIGN: The androgen receptor (AR) mediates peripheral effects of testosterone. Previous data suggests an association between the number of CAG repeats in exon-1 of the AR gene and AR transcriptional activity. The aim of this analysis was to determine the association between the number of AR CAG repeats and all-cause mortality in men and the influence of testosterone level on the association. PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS: Follow-up data to 27 January 2018 were available for men aged 40-79 years recruited across six countries of the European Male Aging Study between 2003 and 2005. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine the association between CAG repeat number/mortality. Results were expressed as hazard ratios (HR)/95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: One thousand nine hundred and seventy-seven men were followed up. Mean baseline age was 60 ± 11.1 years. Mean duration of follow-up was 12.2 years. At follow up 25.1% of men had died. CAG repeat length ranged from 6 to 39, with the highest proportion of CAG repeat number at 21 repeats (16.4%). In a multivariable model, compared to men with 22-23 AR CAG repeats: for men with <22 and >23 AR CAG HR, 95% CI for mortality were, <22 CAG repeats 1.17 (0.93-1.49) and >23 CAG repeats 1.14 (0.88-1.47). In a post-hoc analysis, the association was significant for men in the lowest tertile of baseline testosterone (<14.2 nmol/L) with >23 CAG repeats: in the adjusted model for <22 and >23 CAG repeats, respectively, 1.49 (0.97-2.27) and 1.68 (1.06-2.67) versus 22-23 repeats. CONCLUSIONS: Our European-wide cohort data overall found no association of androgen receptor CAG repeat number and mortality in men. However, post hoc analysis suggested that an association might be present in men with lower baseline testosterone concentrations, which merits further investigation.

Failure to control conventional cardiovascular risk factors in women with type 2 diabetes might explain worse mortality.

INTRODUCTION: The standardised mortality rate (SMR) for people with diabetes in England is 1.5-1.7, with differences in outcomes between sexes. There has been little work examining the factors that could have an impact on this or on what may determine sex differences in outcome. METHODS: Data were extracted for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Salford (England) in 2010 for the years up to 2020, including any deaths recorded. Expected deaths were calculated from annual Office of National Statistics mortality rate and life expectancy by age and gender, adjusted for the local Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). This provided the SMR deprivation (SMRd), and life expectancy years lost per death (LEYLD). The effects of treatment type, and clinical features on SMRd relative to sex were examined by univariable and multivariable analysis. RESULTS: Data from n = 11,806 (F = 5184; M = 6622) patients were included. Of these, n = 5540 were newly diagnosed and n = 3921 died (F = 1841; M = 2080). In total, n = 78,930 patient years. The expected deaths numbered n = 2596 (adjusted for age, sex, and IMD). Excess deaths were n = 1325 (F = 689; M = 636). Life expectancy years lost (LEYL) 18,989 (F = 9714; M = 9275). SMRd 1.51 (F = 1.60; M = 1.44) and LEYLD 4.84 years (F = 5.28; M = 4.46). The impact of risk factors was not different by sex. However, women had higher prevalence of % diagnosed >65 years of age; % last eGFR <60 mLs/min/1.73 m2 , and lower prevalence of % prescribed ACE-inhibitor/ARB, DPP4-inhibitor and SGLT2-inhibitor. Applying the male prevalence rate to the female population and expected mortality suggested n = 437 (55%) of excess T2D female deaths were attributed to sex difference in the prevalence of these risk and protective factors. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes in women with T2DM are worse than in men, contributed to by greater prevalence of adverse factors and less prescribing of cardioprotective medication.

Evaluation of thyroid function monitoring in people treated with lithium: Advice based on real-world data.

INTRODUCTION: Blood test monitoring is essential for the management of lithium treatment and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance recommends 6-monthly serum testing of thyroid function. We examined conformity to these guidelines and the impact of monitoring outside these intervals. METHODS: We extracted serum lithium and thyroid hormone results at one centre between January 2009 and December 2020. We identified 266 patients who started lithium during this period with no history of thyroid abnormality within the previous 2 years and were at risk of developing thyroid abnormalities. We examined the interval between tests, time between onset of lithium testing and first thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) outside the laboratory reference range and assessed impact of testing outside recommended 6-monthly intervals. RESULTS: The most common testing frequency was 3 months (±1 month), accounting for 17.3% of test intervals. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that most thyroid dysfunction manifests within 3 years (proportion with abnormal TSH at 3 years = 91.4%, 19.9% of total patients). In the first 3 months after commencing lithium therapy, eight patients developed subclinical hypothyroidism and had clinical follow-up data available. Of these, half spontaneously normalized without clinical intervention. In the remaining patients, thyroxine replacement was only initiated after multiple occasions of subclinical hypothyroidism (median = 2 years after initiating lithium, range: 6 months to 3 years). CONCLUSION: The peak interval at 3 months suggests that thyroid function is frequently checked at the same time as serum lithium, indicating too frequent testing. Our data support the recommended 6-monthly testing interval and highlight poor adherence to it.

Diabetes foot complications and standardized mortality rate in type 2 diabetes.

AIM: To quantify the impact of foot complications on mortality outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D), and how routinely measured factors might modulate that risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data for individuals with T2D for 2010-2020, from the Salford Integrated Care Record (Salford, UK), were extracted for laboratory and clinical data, and deaths. Annual expected deaths were taken from Office of National Statistics mortality data. An index of multiple deprivation (IMD) adjusted the standardized mortality ratio (SMR_IMD). Life years lost per death (LYLD) was estimated from the difference between expected and actual deaths. RESULTS: A total of 11 806 T2D patients were included, with 5583 new diagnoses and 3921 deaths during 2010-2020. The number of expected deaths was 2135; after IMD adjustment, there were 2595 expected deaths. Therefore, excess deaths numbered 1326 (SMR_IMD 1.51). No foot complications were evident in n = 9857. This group had an SMR_IMD of 1.13 and 2.74 LYLD. In total, 2979 patients had any foot complication recorded. In this group, the SMD_IMR was 2.29; of these, 2555 (75%) had only one foot complication. Patients with a foot complication showed little difference in percentage HbA1c more than 58 mmol/mol. In multivariate analysis, for those with a foot complication and an albumin-to-creatinine ratio of more than 3 mg/mmol, the odds ratio (OR) for death was 1.93, and for an estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min/1.73m2 , the OR for death was 1.92. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with T2D but without a foot complication have an SMR_IMD that is only slightly higher than that of the general population. Those diagnosed with a foot complication have a mortality risk that is double that of those without T2D.

Impact of Bariatric Surgery on Subtilisin/Kexin Type 9 (PCSK9) Gene Expression and Inflammation in the Adipose Tissue of Obese Diabetic Rats.

Bariatric surgery improves dyslipidaemia and reduces body weight, but it remains unclear how bariatric surgery modulates gene expression in fat cells to influence the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK-9) and low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR) gene expression. The expression of the PCSK9/LDLR/tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFα) gene in adipose tissue was measured in two groups of Zucker Diabetic Sprague Dawley (ZDSD) rats after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery or 'SHAM' operation. There was lower PCSK9 (p = 0.02) and higher LDLR gene expression (p = 0.02) in adipose tissue in rats after RYGB. Weight change did not correlate with PCSK9 gene expression (r = -0.5, p = 0.08) or TNFα gene expression (r = -0.4, p = 0.1). TNFα gene expression was positively correlated with PCSK9 gene expression (r = 0.7, p = 0.001) but not correlated with LDLR expression (r = -0.3, p = 0.3). Circulating triglyceride levels were lower in RYGB compared to the SHAM group (1.1 (0.8-1.4) vs. 1.5 (1.0-4.2), p = 0.038) mmol/L with no difference in cholesterol levels. LDLR gene expression was increased post-bariatric surgery with the potential to reduce the number of circulating LDL particles. PCSK9 gene expression and TNFα gene expression were positively correlated after RYGB in ZDSD rats, suggesting that the modulation of pro-inflammatory pathways in adipose tissue after RYGB may partly relate to PCSK9 and LDLR gene expression.

Saving the foot: Simple orthopaedic surgical intervention demonstrates improved outcomes and reduced costs.

BACKGROUND: Forefoot ulceration in diabetes requires significant resources, with high cost and low rates of success. The authors present the results of tendon procedures (percutaneous toe tenotomy and percutaneous tendo-achilles lengthening) under local anaesthetic to adjust mechanics in patients with diabetic neuropathic forefoot ulceration. METHODS: Retrospective review of electronic patient record of 19 patients (22 feet) undergoing local anaesthetic tendon procedures between April 2019 and April 2021 with a 12 month follow up period. Size of ulcer, rate of ulcer healing, complication rates and ulcer recurrence were recorded and compared to a population of conservatively-managed patients (14 patients, 15 feet) treated prior to the introduction of tendon procedures. All clinical information obtained from electronic patient records. RESULTS: All patients undergoing tendon procedures achieved complete ulcer healing at a mean time of 3.3 weeks for toe tip ulcers (after toe tenotomy) and 4.5 weeks for metatarsal head ulcers (after Achilles lengthening). There were no admissions for diabetic foot sepsis, reduced recurrence, reduced amputation rates and no mortality. Of the conservatively managed cohort, only 3 of the 15 achieved ulcer resolution without recurrence within the 12 month study period. The cohort managed conservatively had an average cost of £ 9902 per patient, per annum. The intervention cost was £ 1211 per patient, saving an average of £ 8691 per patient, per annum with ulcer resolution (88 % reduction in costs). CONCLUSION: Significant patient benefit, reduction in resource use and cost saving was seen with this simple intervention, which merits full evaluation in a clinical trial. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level-IV.

The change in glycaemic control immediately after COVID-19 vaccination in people with type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: Evidence suggests that some people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) experience temporary instability of blood glucose (BG) levels after COVID-19 vaccination. We aimed to assess this objectively. METHODS: We examined the interstitial glucose profile of 97 consecutive adults (age ≥ 18 years) with T1DM using the FreeStyle Libre® flash glucose monitor in the periods immediately before and after their first COVID-19 vaccination. The primary outcome measure was percentage (%) interstitial glucose readings within the target range 3.9-10 mmol/L for 7 days prior to the vaccination and the 7 days after the vaccination. Data are mean ± standard error. RESULTS: There was a significant decrease in the % interstitial glucose on target (3.9-10.0) for the 7 days following vaccination (mean 52.2% ± 2.0%) versus pre-COVID-19 vaccination (mean 55.0% ± 2.0%) (p = 0.030). 58% of individuals with T1DM showed a reduction in the 'time in target range' in the week after vaccination. 30% showed a decrease of time within the target range of over 10%, and 10% showed a decrease in time within target range of over 20%. The change in interstitial glucose proportion on target in the week following vaccination was most pronounced for people taking metformin/dapagliflozin + basal bolus insulin (change -7.6%) and for people with HbA1c below the median (change -5.7%). CONCLUSION: In T1DM, we have shown that initial COVID-19 vaccination can cause temporary perturbation of interstitial glucose, with this effect more pronounced in people talking oral hypoglycaemic medication plus insulin, and when HbA1c is lower.

The number of androgen receptor CAG repeats and mortality in men.

INTRODUCTION: The androgen receptor (AR) mediates peripheral effects of testosterone. Evidence suggests that the number of CAG repeats in exon-1 of the AR gene negatively correlates with AR transcriptional activity. The aim of this analysis was to determine the association between CAG repeat number and mortality in men. METHODS: Men aged 40-79 years were recruited from primary care for participation in the UK arm of the European Male Aging Study between 2003 and 2005. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine the association between CAG repeat number/mortality. Results were expressed as hazard ratios(HR)/95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: 312 men were followed up. The mean baseline age was 59.5 years. At follow up, 85/312(27%) men had died. CAG repeat length ranged from 14 to 39, with the highest proportion of CAG repeat number at 21 repeats(16.4%). In a multivariable model, using men with CAG repeat numbers of 22-23 as the reference, men with a lower number of CAG repeats(<22) showed a trend for a higher mortality in the follow-up period (HR 1.46 (0.75, 2.81)) as did men with higher number of repeats (>23) (1.37 (0.65, 2.91)). CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that CAG repeat number may partially influence the risk of mortality in men. Further larger studies are required to quantify the effect.

Trends in costs and prescribing for liothyronine and levothyroxine in England and wales 2011-2020.

INTRODUCTION: Recent prescribing policies in England and Wales have imposed significant restrictions on liothyronine prescribing in general practice driven by the prohibitive costs and uncertain benefits of liothyronine in the management of hypothyroidism. However, the impact of these policies on liothyronine usage and costs is still unclear. METHODS: Data were downloaded from the NHS monthly General Practice Prescribing Data in England and from the Comparative Analysis System for Prescribing Audit (CASPA) in Wales for 2011-2020. Trends over the period in amount and costs of levothyroxine and liothyronine prescribing were analysed. RESULTS: The total medication costs per year for England Wales for hypothyroidism rose from £60.8 million to £129.8 million in 2015-16 and have since reduced to £88.4 million. Levothyroxine prescriptions have been growing above the population growth rate at 0.7%/annum in England and 1.1% in Wales. The costs/patient/year for liothyronine rose from £550 to £3000 in 2015-16 and has since fallen to £2500. Use of liothyronine as a percentage of levothyroxine started to fall in 2015-16 at 7%/annum in England and 3% in Wales. Nevertheless, 0.5% of levothyroxine-treated patients continue to receive liothyronine. All Clinical Commission Groups (CCGs) in England continue to have at least one liothyronine prescribing practice and 48.5% of English general practices prescribed liothyronine in 2019-20. CONCLUSION: In spite of strenuous attempts to limit prescribing of liothyronine in general practice, a significant number of patients continue to receive this therapy. The price differential of liothyronine vs levothyroxine should be examined again in light of the continuing use of liothyronine.

Lessons learnt from the variation across 6741 family/general practices in England in the use of treatments for hypogonadism.

INTRODUCTION: We have previously reported rates of diagnosis of male hypogonadism in United Kingdom (UK) general practices. We aimed to identify factors associated with testosterone prescribing in UK general practice. METHODS: We determined for 6741 general practices in England, the level of testosterone prescribing in men and the relation between volume of testosterone prescribing and (1) demographic characteristics of the practice, (2) % patients with specific comorbidities and (3) national GP patient survey results. RESULTS: The largest volume (by prescribing volume) agents were injectable preparations at a total cost in the 12-month period 2018/19 of £8,172,519 with gel preparations in second place: total cost £4,795,057. Transdermal patches, once the only alternative to testosterone injections or implants, were little prescribed: total cost £222,022. The analysis accounted for 0.27 of the variance in testosterone prescribing between general practices. Thus, most of this variance was not accounted for by the analysis. There was a strong univariant relation (r = .95, P < .001) between PDE5-I prescribing and testosterone prescribing. Other multivariant factors independently linked with more testosterone prescribing were as follows: HIGHER proportion of men with type 2 diabetes(T2DM) on target control (HbA1c ≤ 58 mmol/mol) and HIGHER overall practice rating on the National Patient Survey for good experience, while non-white ethnicity and socio-economic deprivation were associated with less testosterone prescribing. There were a number of comorbidity factors associated with less prescribing of testosterone (such as T2DM, hypertension and stroke/TIA). CONCLUSION: Our analysis has indicated that variation between general practices in testosterone prescribing in a well developed health economy is only related to small degree (r2  = 0.27) to factors that we can define. This suggests that variation in amount of testosterone prescribed is largely related to general practitioner choice/other factors not studied and may be amenable to measures to increase knowledge/awareness of male hypogonadism, with implications for men's health.

Mortality in 98 type 1 diabetes mellitus and type 2 diabetes mellitus: Foot ulcer location is an independent risk determinant.

INTRODUCTION: We previously demonstrated in both a longitudinal study and in meta-analysis (pooled relative-risk RR, 2.45) that all-cause mortality is significantly higher in people with diabetes foot ulceration (DFU) than with those without a foot ulcer. In this prospective study, we looked at the factors linked to mortality after presentation to podiatry with DFU. METHODS: Ninety-eight individuals recruited consecutively from the Salford Royal Hospital Multidisciplinary Foot Clinic in Spring 2016 were followed up for up to 48 months. Data concerning health outcomes were extracted from the electronic patient record (EPR). RESULTS: Seventeen people (17) had type 1 diabetes mellitus, and 81 had type 2 diabetes mellitus. Thirty-one were women. The mean age (range) was 63.6 (28-90) years with maximum diabetes duration 45 years. Mean HbA1c was 72 (95% CI: 67-77) mmol/mol; 97% had neuropathy (International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot (IWGDF) monofilament); 62% had vascular insufficiency (Doppler studies); 69% of ulcers were forefoot, and 23% of ulcers were hind foot in location. Forty of 98 (40%) patients died in follow-up with 27% of death certificates including sepsis (not foot-related) and 35% renal failure as cause of death. Multivariate regression analysis indicated a 6.3 (95% CI: 3.9-8.1) fold increased risk of death with hind foot ulcer, independent of age/BMI/gender/HbA1c/eGFR/total cholesterol level. CONCLUSION: This prospective study has indicated a very high long-term mortality rate in individuals with DFU, greater for those with a hind foot ulcer and shown a close relation between risk of sepsis/renal failure and DFU mortality, highlighting again the importance of addressing all risk factors as soon as people present with a foot ulcer.

Genetically defined favourable adiposity is not associated with a clinically meaningful difference in clinical course in people with type 2 diabetes but does associate with a favourable metabolic profile.

AIMS: Change in weight, HbA1c , lipids, blood pressure and cardiometabolic events over time is variable in individuals with type 2 diabetes. We hypothesised that people with a genetic predisposition to a more favourable adiposity distribution could have a less severe clinical course/progression. METHODS: We involved people with type 2 diabetes from two UK-based cohorts: 11,914 individuals with GP follow-up data from the UK Biobank and 723 from Salford. We generated a 'favourable adiposity' genetic score and conducted cross-sectional and longitudinal studies to test its association with weight, BMI, lipids, blood pressure, medication use and risk of myocardial infarction and stroke using 15 follow-up time points with 1-year intervals. RESULTS: The 'favourable adiposity' genetic score was cross-sectionally associated with higher weight (effect size per 1 standard deviation higher genetic score: 0.91 kg [0.59,1.23]) and BMI (0.30 kg/m2 [0.19,0.40]), but higher high-density lipoprotein (0.02 mmol/L [0.01,0.02]) and lower triglycerides (-0.04 mmol/L [-0.07, -0.02]) in the UK Biobank at baseline, and this pattern of association was consistent across follow-up. There was a trend for participants with higher 'favourable adiposity' genetic score to have lower risk of myocardial infarction and/or stroke (odds ratio 0.79 [0.62, 1.00]) compared to those with lower score. A one standard deviation higher score was associated with lower odds of using lipid-lowering (0.91 [0.86, 0.97]) and anti-hypertensive medication (0.95 [0.91, 0.99]). CONCLUSIONS: In individuals with type 2 diabetes, having more 'favourable adiposity' alleles is associated with a marginally better lipid profile long-term and having lower odds of requiring lipid-lowering or anti-hypertensive medication in spite of relatively higher adiposity.

Serum lithium test requesting across three UK regions: an evaluation of adherence to monitoring guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorder is the fourth most common mental health condition, affecting ~ 1% of UK adults. Lithium is an effective treatment for prevention of relapse and hospital admission, and is widely recommended as a first-line treatment. We previously showed in other areas that laboratory testing patterns are variable with sub-optimal conformity to guidance. We therefore examined lithium results and requesting patterns relative to monitoring recommendations. METHODS: Data on serum lithium levels and intervals between requests were extracted from Clinical Biochemistry laboratory information systems at the University Hospitals of North Midlands, Salford Royal Foundation Trust and Pennine Acute Hospitals from 2012 to 2018 (46,555 requests; 3371 individuals). Data were examined with respect to region/source of request, age and sex. RESULTS: Across all sites, lithium levels on many requests were outside the recommended UK therapeutic range (0.4-0.99 mmol/L); 19.2% below the range and 6.1% above the range (median [Li]: 0.60 mmol/L). A small percentage were found at the extremes (3.2% at < 0.1 mmol/L, 1.0% at ≥1.4 mmol/L). Most requests were from general practice (56.3%) or mental health units (34.4%), though those in the toxic range (≥1.4 mmol/L) were more likely to be from secondary care (63.9%). For requesting intervals, there was a distinct peak at 12 weeks, consistent with guidance for those stabilised on lithium therapy. There was no peak at 6 months, as recommended for those aged < 65 years on unchanging therapy, though re-test intervals in this age group were more likely to be longer. There was a peak at 0-7 days, reflecting those requiring closer monitoring (e.g. treatment initiation, toxicity). However, for those with initial lithium concentrations within the BNF range (0.4-0.99 mmol/L), 69.4% of tests were requested outside expected testing frequencies. CONCLUSIONS: Our data showed: (a) lithium levels are often maintained at the lower end of the recommended therapeutic range, (b) patterns of lithium results and testing frequency were comparable across three UK sites with differing models of care and, (c) re-test intervals demonstrate a noticeable peak at the recommended 3-monthly, but not at 6-monthly intervals. Many tests were repeated outside expected frequencies, indicating the need for measures to minimise inappropriate testing.

Comparing cost of intravenous infusion and subcutaneous biologics in COVID-19 pandemic care pathways for rheumatoid arthritis and inflammatory bowel disease: A brief UK stakeholder survey.

OBJECTIVES: One important group of people at higher risk from the SARS-CoV-2(COVID-19) pandemic are those with autoimmune conditions including rheumatoid arthritis/inflammatory bowel disease. To minimise infection risk, many people have been switched from intravenous to subcutaneous biologics including biosimilars. DESIGN: The survey was designed to understand comparative economic issues related to the intravenous infusion vs subcutaneous biologic administration routes for infliximab. The survey focused on direct cost drivers/indirect cost drivers. Acquisition costs of medicines were not included due to data not being available publicly. Wider policy implications linked to the pandemic were also explored. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Semistructured single telephone interviews were carried out with twenty key stakeholders across the National Health Service(NHS) from 35 clinical/42 pharmacy/28 commissioning roles. The interviews were undertaken virtually during April 2020. From interview (n = 20) results, a simple cost analysis was developed plus a qualitative analysis of reports on wider policy/patient impacts. RESULTS: Key findings included evidence of significant variation in local infusion tariffs UK wide, with interviewees reporting that not all actual costs incurred are captured in published tariff costs. A cost analysis showed administration costs 50% lower in the subcutaneous compared to infusion routes, with most patients administering subcutaneous medicines themselves. Other indirect benefits to this route included less pressure on infusion unit waiting times/reduced risk of COVID-19 infection plus reduced patient 'out of pocket' costs. However, this was to some extent offset by increased pressure on home-care and community/primary care services. CONCLUSIONS: Switching from infusion to subcutaneous routes is currently driven by the COVID-19 pandemic in many services. A case for biologics (infusion vs subcutaneous) must be made on accurate real-world economic analysis. In an analysis of direct/indirect costs, excluding medicine acquisition costs, subcutaneous administration appears to be the more cost saving option for many patients even without the benefit of industry funded home-care. What's known One important group of people at high risk in COVID-19 pandemic are those with autoimmune conditions, including those with rheumatoid arthritis and inflammatory bowel disease. Depending on the complexity of their condition, some of the patients in this group may be receiving intravenous biologic infusion therapy which under normal circumstances is administered within a hospital or day hospital setting. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence has published new guidance to ensure that patients having intravenous treatment are assessed for possible switching to the same treatment in subcutaneous form. What's new A cost analysis showed that administration costs for subcutananous routes are 50% lower than for infusion routes, with most patients administering subcutaneous medicines themselves. Other indirect benefits to this route included less pressure on infusion unit waiting times and reduced risk of COVID-19 infection, along with reduced patient costs. Cost savings were partly offset by increased pressure on home-care and community/primary care services.

How fast should social restrictions be eased in England as COVID-19 vaccinations are rolled out?

INTRODUCTION: Vaccination against the COVID-19 virus began in December 2020 in the UK and into Spring 2021 has been running at 5% population/week. High levels of social restrictions were implemented for the third time in January 2021 to control the second wave and resulting increases in hospitalisations and deaths. Easing those restrictions must balance multiple challenging priorities, weighing the risk of more deaths and hospitalisations against damage done to mental health, incomes and standards of living, education and provision of non-Covid-19 healthcare. METHODS: Weekly and monthly officially published data for 2020/21 were used to estimate the influence of seasonality and social restrictions on the spread of COVID-19 by age group, on the economy and on healthcare services. These factors were combined with the estimated impact of vaccinations and immunity from past infections into a model that retrospectively reflected the actual numbers of reported deaths closely both in 2020 and early 2021. The model was applied prospectively to the next 6 months to evaluate the impact of different speeds of easing social restrictions. RESULTS: The results show vaccinations as significantly reducing the number of hospitalisations and deaths. The central estimate is that relative to rapid easing, the avoided loss of 57 000 life-years from a strategy of relatively slow easing over the next several  months comes at a cost in terms of GDP reduction of around £0.4 million/life-year loss avoided. This is over 10 times higher than the usual limit the NHS uses for spending against Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) saved. Alternative assumptions for key factors affecting the spread of the virus give significantly different trade-offs between costs and benefits of different speeds of easing. Disruption of non-Covid-19 Healthcare provision also increases in times of higher levels of social restrictions. CONCLUSION: In most cases, the results favour a somewhat faster easing of restrictions in England than current policy implies.

"Stay at Home, Protect the National Health Service, Save Lives": A cost benefit analysis of the lockdown in the United Kingdom.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed lives across the world. In the UK, a public health driven policy of population "lockdown" has had enormous personal and economic impact. METHODS: We compare UK response and outcomes with European countries of similar income and healthcare resources. We calibrate estimates of the economic costs as different % loss in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) against possible benefits of avoiding life years lost, for different scenarios where current COVID-19 mortality and comorbidity rates were used to calculate the loss in life expectancy and adjusted for their levels of poor health and quality of life. We then apply a quality-adjusted life years (QALY) value of £30,000 (maximum under national guidelines). RESULTS: There was a rapid spread of cases and significant variation both in severity and timing of both implementation and subsequent reductions in social restrictions. There was less variation in the trajectory of mortality rates and excess deaths, which have fallen across all countries during May/June 2020. The average age at death and life expectancy loss for non-COVID-19 was 79.1 and 11.4 years, respectively, while COVID-19 were 80.4 and 10.1 years; including adjustments for life-shortening comorbidities and quality of life plausibly reduces this to around 5 QALY lost for each COVID-19 death. The lowest estimate for lockdown costs incurred was 40% higher than highest benefits from avoiding the worst mortality case scenario at full life expectancy tariff and in more realistic estimations they were over 5 times higher. Future scenarios showed in the best case a QALY value of £220k (7xNICE guideline) and in the worst-case £3.7m (125xNICE guideline) was needed to justify the continuation of lockdown. CONCLUSION: This suggests that the costs of continuing severe restrictions are so great relative to likely benefits in lives saved that a rapid easing in restrictions is now warranted.