Inequality in Place: Effects of Exposure to Neighborhood-Level Economic Inequality on Mortality.

This study contributes to the debate on whether income inequality is harmful for health by addressing several analytical weaknesses of previous studies. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics in combination with tract-level measures of income inequality in the United States, we estimate the effects of differential exposure to income inequality during three decades of the life course on mortality. Our study is among the first to consider the implications of income inequality within U.S. tracts for mortality using longitudinal and individual-level data. In addition, we improve upon prior work by accounting for the dynamic relationship between local areas and individuals' health, using marginal structural models to account for changes in exposure to local income inequality. In contrast to other studies that found no significant relation between income inequality and mortality, we find that recent exposure to higher local inequality predicts higher relative risk of mortality among individuals at ages 45 or older.

Educational inequalities in obesity: a multilevel analysis of survey data from cities in Latin America.

OBJECTIVE: Using newly harmonised individual-level data on health and socio-economic environments in Latin American cities (from the Salud Urbana en América Latina (SALURBAL) study), we assessed the association between obesity and education levels and explored potential effect modification of this association by city-level socio-economic development. DESIGN: This cross-sectional study used survey data collected between 2002 and 2017. Absolute and relative educational inequalities in obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2, derived from measured weight and height) were calculated first. Then, a two-level mixed-effects logistic regression was run to test for effect modification of the education-obesity association by city-level socio-economic development. All analyses were stratified by sex. SETTING: One hundred seventy-six Latin American cities within eight countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico and Peru). PARTICIPANTS: 53 186 adults aged >18 years old. RESULTS: Among women, 25 % were living with obesity and obesity was negatively associated with educational level (higher education-lower obesity) and this pattern was consistent across city-level socio-economic development. Among men, 18 % were living with obesity and there was a positive association between education and obesity (higher education-higher obesity) for men living in cities with lower levels of development, whereas for those living in cities with higher levels of development, the pattern was inverted and university education was protective of obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Among women, education was protective of obesity regardless, whereas among men, it was only protective in cities with higher levels of development. These divergent results suggest the need for sex- and city-specific interventions to reduce obesity prevalence and inequalities.

Examining the dynamics between young people's mental health, poverty and life chances in six low- and middle-income countries: protocol for the CHANCES-6 study.

PURPOSE: Poverty and poor mental health are closely related and may need to be addressed together to improve the life chances of young people. There is currently little evidence about the impact of poverty-reduction interventions, such as cash transfer programmes, on improved youth mental health and life chances. The aim of the study (CHANCES-6) is to understand the impact and mechanisms of such programmes. METHODS: CHANCES-6 will employ a combination of quantitative, qualitative and economic analyses. Secondary analyses of longitudinal datasets will be conducted in six low- and middle-income countries (Brazil, Colombia, Liberia, Malawi, Mexico and South Africa) to examine the impact of cash transfer programmes on mental health, and the mechanisms leading to improved life chances for young people living in poverty. Qualitative interviews and focus groups (conducted among a subset of three countries) will explore the views and experiences of young people, families and professionals with regard to poverty, mental health, life chances, and cash transfer programmes. Decision-analytic modelling will examine the potential economic case and return-on-investment from programmes. We will involve stakeholders and young people to increase the relevance of findings to national policies and practice. RESULTS: Knowledge will be generated on the potential role of cash transfer programmes in breaking the cycle between poor mental health and poverty for young people, to improve their life chances. CONCLUSION: CHANCES-6 seeks to inform decisions regarding the future design and the merits of investing in poverty-reduction interventions alongside investments into the mental health of young people.

Poor health as a potential risk factor for job loss due to automation: the case of Norway.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to quantify the extent to which health characteristics of workers are related to the potential risk of experiencing job displacement due to automation. METHODS: Linking the 2015 Norwegian Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey (n=6393) with predicted probabilities of automation by occupation, we used Kruskal-Wallis tests and multivariate generalised linear models to assess the association between long-standing illnesses and risk of job automation. RESULTS: Individuals with long-standing illnesses face substantially greater risks of losing their job due to automation. Whereas the average risk of job automation is 57% for men and 49% for women with long-standing illnesses, the risk is only 50% for men and 44% for women with limitations (p<0.001). Controlling for age, having a long-standing illness significantly increases the relative risk of facing job automation among men (risk ratio (RR) 1.13, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.19), as well as women (RR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.17). While, among men, the association between long-standing illness and risk of job automation remains significant when controlling for education and income, it becomes insignificant among women. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with poor health are likely to carry the highest burden of technological change in terms of worsening employment prospects because of working in occupations disproportionally more likely to be automated. Although the extent of technology-related job displacement will depend on several factors, given the far-reaching negative consequences of job loss on health and well-being, this process represents a significant challenge for public health and social equity.

Economic downturns during the life-course and late-life health: an analysis of 11 European countries.

BACKGROUND: Research has shown that individual socio-economic circumstances throughout life affect health in older ages. However, little attention has been paid to the broad economic context affecting individual's life-chances. This paper examines whether economic downturns experienced during young and mid-adulthood have long-run effects on physical health. METHODS: We exploit data on economic fluctuations in the period 1945-2010 in 11 European countries, linked to longitudinal data from three waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. We estimate a country fixed effect model assessing whether downturns experienced at 5-year intervals between ages 25 and 54 are associated with levels and onset of new limitations with Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) in older age (55-80). RESULTS: Experiencing an economic downturn at ages 45-59 is associated with increased risk of having at least one disability limitation in later-life (odds ratio [OR] for ADL = 1.66, 95% CI [Confidence Interval] 1.24, 2.22; OR for IADL = 1.46, 95% CI 1.10, 1.94). Economic downturns at ages 40-44 and 45-49 also increase the risk of a new functional limitation in later-life (OR for IADL ages 40-44 = 1.20, 95% CI 1.03, 1.40; OR for IADL ages 45-49 = 1.44, CI 1.10-1.88). Economic downturns experienced around these ages are also associated with significantly greater risks of smoking and excessive alcohol consumption as well as lower incomes in older age. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to an economic downturn at ages 40-49 is associated with poorer health in older ages, possibly by increasing risk of unhealthy behaviours and low incomes persisting into older age.

The public health impact of economic fluctuations in a Latin American country: mortality and the business cycle in Colombia in the period 1980-2010.

INTRODUCTION: Studies in high-income countries suggest that mortality is related to economic cycles, but few studies have examined how fluctuations in the economy influence mortality in low- and middle-income countries. We exploit regional variations in gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) over the period 1980-2010 in Colombia to examine how changes in economic output relate to adult mortality. METHODS: Data on the number of annual deaths at ages 20 years and older (n = 3,506,600) from mortality registries, disaggregated by age groups, sex and region, were linked to population counts for the period 1980-2010. We used region fixed effect models to examine whether changes in regional GDPpc were associated with changes in mortality. We carried out separate analyses for the periods 1980-1995 and 2000-2010 as well as by sex, distinguishing three age groups: 20-44 (predominantly young working adults), 45-64 (middle aged working adults), and 65+ (senior, predominantly retired individuals). RESULTS: The association between regional economic conditions and mortality varied by period and age groups. From 1980 to 1995, increases in GDPpc were unrelated to mortality at ages 20 to 64, but they were associated with reductions in mortality for senior men. In contrast, from 2000 to 2010, changes in GDPpc were not associated with old age mortality, while an increase in GDPpc was associated with a decline in mortality at ages 20-44 years. Analyses restricted to regions with high registration coverage yielded similar albeit less precise estimates for most sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between business cycles and mortality varied by period and age in Colombia. Most notably, mortality shifted from being acyclical to being countercyclical for males aged 20-44, while it shifted from being countercyclical to being acyclical for males aged 65+.

Can primary health care mitigate the effects of economic crises on child health in Latin America? An integrated multicountry evaluation and forecasting analysis.

BACKGROUND: Latin American and Caribbean countries are dealing with the combined challenges of pandemic-induced socicoeconomic stress and increasing public debt, potentially leading to reductions in welfare and health-care services, including primary care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of primary health-care coverage on child mortality in Latin America over the past two decades and to forecast the potential effects of primary health-care mitigation during the current economic crisis. METHODS: This multicountry study integrated retrospective impact evaluations in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico from 2000 to 2019 with forecasting models covering up to 2030. We estimated the impact of coverage of primary health care on mortality rates in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5 mortality) across different age groups and causes of death, adjusting for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health-care factors, with fixed-effects multivariable negative binomial models in 5647 municipalities with an adequate quality of vital statistics. We also performed several sensitivity and triangulation analyses. We integrated previous longitudinal datasets with validated dynamic microsimulation models and projected trends in under-5 mortality rates under alternative policy response scenarios until 2030. FINDINGS: High primary health-care coverage was associated with substantial reductions in post-neonatal mortality rates (rate ratio [RR] 0·72, 95% CI 0·71-0·74), toddler (ie, aged between 1 year and <5 years) mortality rates (0·75, 0·73-0·76), and under-5 mortality rates (0·81, 0·80-0·82), preventing 305 890 (95% CI 251 826-360 517) deaths of children younger than 5 years over the period 2000-19. High primary health-care coverage was also associated with lower under-5 mortality rates from nutritional deficiencies (RR 0·55, 95% CI 0·52-0·58), anaemia (0·64, 0·57-0·72), vaccine-preventable and vaccine-sensitive conditions (0·70, 0·68-0·72), and infectious gastroenteritis (0·78, 0·73-0·84). Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation response strategy implemented in the period 2020-30 that increases primary health-care coverage could reduce the under-5 mortality rate by up to 23% (RR 0·77, 95% CI 0·72-0·84) when compared with a fiscal austerity response, and this strategy would avoid 142 285 (95% CI 120 217-164 378) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico. INTERPRETATION: The improvement in primary health-care coverage in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico over the past two decades has substantially contributed to improving child survival. Expansion of primary health-care coverage should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health effects of the current economic crisis and to achieve Sustainable Development Goals related to child health. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

'It's a delicate topic': Stigma, capabilities and young people's mental health in post-conflict Colombia.

Young people in Colombia present high rates of mental health problems, to which the country's history of armed internal conflict contributes in complex ways. Mental health services in Colombia are fragmented, inadequate, and difficult to access for many. Young people's help-seeking is often hindered by mental health stigma and/or poor experiences with services. This paper presents a thematic analysis of qualitative data from a mixed-methods study aimed at developing and testing a mental health intervention for Colombian youths. We draw upon theoretical lenses from scholarly work on stigma and Sen's 'capabilities approach' to inform our analysis of interviews and group discussions with staff and young people involved in the state-funded human capital building programme 'Jovenes en Acción' (JeA). By illustrating how study participants talked about stigma, vulnerability, mental health services organisation, and the challenges of discussing mental health topics in a learning environment, we illuminate aspects of mental health support and anti-stigma interventions that might need enhancing. In particular, we suggest that more emphasis on 'community competencies' as complementary to and interrelated with individual competencies would strengthen young people's individual and collective resources for mental wellbeing while being in line with the sociocritical principles of existing human capital-enhancing programmes.

The long-term effects of cash transfer programmes on young adults' mental health: A quasi-experimental study of Colombia, Mexico and South Africa.

Poverty is associated with poorer mental health in early adulthood. Cash transfers (CTs) have been shown to improve child health and education outcomes, but it is unclear whether these effects may translate into better mental health outcomes as children reach young adulthood. Using a quasi-experimental approach that exploits variation across countries in the timing of national CT programme introduction, we examine whether longer exposure to CTs during childhood (0-17 years) reduces depressive symptoms in early adulthood (18-30 years). Based on harmonized data from Colombia, Mexico and South Africa (N= 14 431) we applied logistic regression models with country- and birth-cohort fixed effects to estimate the impact of cumulative years of CT exposure on mental health, educational attainment and employment outcomes. Our findings indicate that each additional year of CT exposure during childhood is associated with a 4% reduction in the odds of serious depressive symptoms in early adulthood (OR = 0.96, 95% CIs: 0.93 to 0.98). We find no consistent effect of years of exposure on completion of secondary school (OR = 1.01, 95% CIs: 0.99, 1.03), and a negative effect on the probability of employment in early adulthood (OR = 0.90, 95% CIs: 0.88, 0.91). These results suggest that longer exposure to CTs may contribute to modest but meaningful reductions in population level depressive symptoms during early adulthood.

Current and Projected Mortality and Hospitalization Rates Associated With Conditional Cash Transfer, Social Pension, and Primary Health Care Programs in Brazil, 2000-2030.

Importance: The health outcomes of increased poverty and inequalities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been substantially amplified as a consequence of converging multiple crises. Brazil has some of the world's largest conditional cash transfer (Programa Bolsa Família [PBF]), social pension (Beneficio de Prestacão Continuada [BPC]), and primary health care (Estratégia de Saúde da Família [ESF]) programs that could act as mitigating interventions during the current polycrisis era of increasing poverty, slow or contracting economic growth, and conflicts. Objective: To evaluate the combined association of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer, social pension, and primary health care programs with the reduction of morbidity and mortality over the last 2 decades and forecast their potential mitigation of the current global polycrisis and beyond. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a longitudinal ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models (adjusted for relevant socioeconomic, demographic, and health care variables) integrating the retrospective analysis from 2000 to 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. Participants included a cohort of 2548 Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019, projected from 2020 to 2030. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023. Exposure: PBF coverage of the target population (those who were poorest) was categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). ESF coverage was categorized as null (0), low (0.1%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), and consolidated (70.0%-100%). BPC coverage was categorized by terciles. Main outcomes and measures: Age-standardized, all-cause mortality and hospitalization rates calculated for the entire population and by age group (<5 years, 5-29 years, 30-69 years, and ≥70 years). Results: Among the 2548 Brazilian municipalities studied from 2004 to 2019, the mean (SD) age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 16.64% (from 6.73 [1.14] to 5.61 [0.94] deaths per 1000 population). Consolidated coverages of social welfare programs studied were all associated with reductions in overall mortality rates (PBF: rate ratio [RR], 0.95 [95% CI, 0.94-0.96]; ESF: RR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.93-0.94]; BPC: RR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.91-0.92]), having all together prevented an estimated 1 462 626 (95% CI, 1 332 128-1 596 924) deaths over the period 2004 to 2019. The results were higher on mortality for the group younger than age 5 years (PBF: RR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.85-0.90]; ESF: RR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.87-0.93]; BPC: RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.82-0.86]), on mortality for the group aged 70 years and older, and on hospitalizations. Considering a shorter scenario of economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of PBF, BPC, and ESF to proportionally cover the newly poor and at-risk individuals was projected to avert 1 305 359 (95% CI, 1 163 659-1 449 256) deaths and 6 593 224 (95% CI, 5 534 591-7 651 327) hospitalizations up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity scenarios that would reduce the coverage of these interventions. Conclusions and relevance: This cohort study's results suggest that combined expansion of conditional cash transfers, social pensions, and primary health care should be considered a viable strategy to mitigate the adverse health outcomes of the current global polycrisis in LMICs, whereas the implementation of fiscal austerity measures could result in large numbers of preventable deaths.

Have health trends worsened in Greece as a result of the financial crisis? A quasi-experimental approach.

BACKGROUND: Health in Greece deteriorated after the recent financial crisis, but whether this decline was caused by the recent financial crisis has not been established. This article uses a quasi-experimental approach to examine the impact of the recent financial crisis on health in Greece. METHODS: Data came from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey for the years 2006-09. We applied a difference-in-differences approach that compares health trends before and after the financial crisis in Greece with trends in a control population (Poland) that did not experience a recession and had health trends comparable with Greece before the crisis. We used logistic regression to model the impact of the financial crisis on poor self-rated health, controlling for demographic confounders. RESULTS: Results provide strong evidence of a statistically significant negative effect of the financial crisis on health trends. Relative to the control population, Greece experienced a significantly larger increase in the odds of reporting poor health after the crisis (odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.29). There was no difference in health trends between Poland and Greece before the financial crisis, supporting a causal interpretation of health declines in Greece as a result of the financial crisis. CONCLUSION: Results provide evidence that trends in self-rated health in Greece worsened as a result of the recent financial crisis. Findings stress the need for urgent health policy responses to the recent economic collapse in Greece as the full impact of austerity measures unfolds in the coming years.

Women's empowerment and infant mortality in Latin America: evidence from 286 cities.

Levels of women's empowerment (WE) can contribute to differences in infant mortality rates (IMRs) across cities. We used a cross-sectional multilevel study to examine associations of WE with IMRs across 286 cities in seven Latin American countries. We estimated IMRs for 2014-2016 period and combined city socioeconomic indicators into factors reflecting living conditions and service provision. WE was operationalized: (1) in cities, by using scores for women's labor force participation (WLFP) and educational attainment among women derived from education and employment indicators disaggregated by sex; (2) in countries, by including a scale of enforcements of laws related to women's rights. We estimated adjusted percent differences in IMRs associated with higher WE scores across all cities and stratified by country GDP. We found substantial heterogeneity in IMRs and WE across cities. Higher WLFP was associated with lower IMRs. Higher women's educational attainment was associated with lower IMRs only in cities from countries with lower GDP. Poorer national enforcement of laws protecting women's rights was associated with higher IMRs in all countries. Women's empowerment could have positive implications for population health. Fostering women's socioeconomic development and girls' education should be part of strategies to reduce IMRs in cities of Global South.

Combining cash transfers and cognitive behavioral therapy to reduce antisocial behavior in young men: A mediation analysis of a randomized controlled trial in Liberia.

BACKGROUND: Interventions that combine cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) with unconditional cash transfers (UCT) reduce the risk of antisocial behavior (ASB), but the underlying mechanisms are unclear. In this paper, we test the role of psychological and cognitive mechanisms in explaining this effect. We assessed the mediating role of executive function, self-control, and time preferences. METHODS: We used data from the Sustainable Transformation of Youth in Liberia, a community-based randomized controlled trial of criminally engaged men. The men were randomized into: Group-1: control (n = 237); and Group-2: CBT+UCT (n = 207). ASB was measured 12-13 months after the interventions were completed, and the following mediators were assessed 2-5 weeks later: (i) self-control, (ii) time preferences and (iii) executive functions. We estimated the natural direct effect (NDE) and the natural indirect effect (NIE) of the intervention over ASB. RESULTS: Self-control, time preferences and a weighted index of all three mediators were associated with ASB scores, but the intervention influenced time preferences only [B = 0.09 95%CI (0.03; 0.15)]. There was no evidence that the effect of the intervention on ASB was mediated by self-control [BNIE = 0.007 95%CI (-0.01; 0.02)], time preferences [BNIE = -0.02 95%CI (-0.05; 0.01)], executive functions [BNIE = 0.002 95%CI (-0.002; 0.006)] or the weighted index of the mediators [BNIE = -0.0005 95%CI (-0.03; 0.02)]. CONCLUSIONS: UCT and CBT lead to improvements in ASB, even in the absence of mediation via psychological and cognitive functions. Findings suggest that the causal mechanisms may involve non-psychological pathways.

Evaluation and Forecasting Analysis of the Association of Conditional Cash Transfer With Child Mortality in Latin America, 2000-2030.

Importance: Latin America has implemented the world's largest and most consolidated conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs during the last 2 decades. As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, poverty rates have markedly increased, and a large number of newly low-income individuals, especially children, have been left unprotected. Objective: To evaluate the association of CCT programs with child health in Latin American countries during the last 2 decades and forecast child mortality trends up to 2030 according to CCT alternative implementation options. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a multicountry, longitudinal, ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models, which were adjusted for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health care variables, integrating the retrospective impact evaluations from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. The study cohort included 4882 municipalities from Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico with adequate quality of civil registration and vital statistics according to a validated multidimensional criterion. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023. Exposure: Conditional cash transfer coverage of the target (lowest-income) population categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were mortality rates for those younger than 5 years and hospitalization rates (per 1000 live births), overall and by poverty-related causes (diarrheal, malnutrition, tuberculosis, malaria, lower respiratory tract infections, and HIV/AIDS), and the mortality rates for those younger than 5 years by age groups, namely, neonatal (0-28 days), postneonatal (28 days to 1 year), infant (<1 year), and toddler (1-4 years). Results: The retrospective analysis included 4882 municipalities. During the study period of January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, mortality in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico decreased by 7.8% in children and 6.5% in infants, and an increase in coverage of CCT programs of 76.8% was observed in these Latin American countries. Conditional cash transfer programs were associated with significant reductions of mortality rates in those younger than 5 years (rate ratio [RR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.76), having prevented 738 919 (95% CI, 695 641-782 104) child deaths during this period. The association of highest coverage of CCT programs was stronger with poverty-related diseases, such as malnutrition (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.31-0.35), diarrhea (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.40-0.43), lower respiratory tract infections (RR, 0.66, 95% CI, 0.65-0.68), malaria (RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.93), tuberculosis (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.48-0.79), and HIV/AIDS (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.28-0.37). Several sensitivity and triangulation analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of CCTs to protect those newly in poverty could reduce the mortality rate for those younger than 5 years by up to 17% (RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.85) and prevent 153 601 (95% CI, 127 441-180 600) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this cohort study suggest that the expansion of CCT programs could strongly reduce childhood hospitalization and mortality in Latin America and should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health impact of the current global economic crisis in low- and middle-income countries.

Potential mechanisms by which cash transfer programmes could improve the mental health and life chances of young people: A conceptual framework and lines of enquiry for research and policy.

Mental health is inextricably linked to both poverty and future life chances such as education, skills, labour market attachment and social function. Poverty can lead to poorer mental health, which reduces opportunities and increases the risk of lifetime poverty. Cash transfer programmes are one of the most common strategies to reduce poverty and now reach substantial proportions of populations living in low- and middle-income countries. Because of their rapid expansion in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have recently gained even more importance. Recently, there have been suggestions that these cash transfers might improve youth mental health, disrupting the cycle of disadvantage at a critical period of life. Here, we present a conceptual framework describing potential mechanisms by which cash transfer programmes could improve the mental health and life chances of young people. Furthermore, we explore how theories from behavioural economics and cognitive psychology could be used to more specifically target these mechanisms and optimise the impact of cash transfers on youth mental health and life chances. Based on this, we identify several lines of enquiry and action for future research and policy.

Piloting a mental health intervention for young adults in poverty enrolled in post-secondary education in post-conflict regions in Colombia: a study protocol.

Background: Colombia has endured more than five decades of internal armed conflict, which led to substantial costs for human capital and mental health. There is currently little evidence about the impact of incorporating a mental health intervention within an existing public cash transfer program to address poverty, and this project aims to develop and pilot a mental health support intervention embedded within the human capital program to achieve better outcomes among beneficiaries, especially those displaced by conflict and the most socioeconomically vulnerable. Methods: The study will consist of three phases: semi-structured one-to-one interviews, co-design and adaptations of the proposed intervention with participants and pilot of the digital intervention based on cognitive behavioral therapy and transdiagnostic techniques to determine its feasibility, acceptability, efficacy, and usefulness in 'real settings'. Results will inform if the intervention improves clinical, educational and employment prospects among those who use it. Results: Knowledge will be generated on whether the mental health intervention could potentially improve young people's mental health and human capital in conflict-affected areas? We will evaluate of the impact of potential mental health improvements on human capital outcomes, including educational and employment outcomes. Conclusion: Findings will help to make conclusions about the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention, and it will assess its effectiveness to improve the mental health and human capital outcomes of beneficiaries. This will enable the identification of strategies to address mental health problems among socioeconomically vulnerable young people that can be adapted to different contexts in in low and middle-income countries.

Understanding the social determinants of child mortality in Latin America over the last two decades: a machine learning approach.

The reduction of child mortality rates remains a significant global public health challenge, particularly in regions with high levels of inequality such as Latin America. We used machine learning (ML) algorithms to explore the relationship between social determinants and child under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico over two decades. We created a municipal-level cohort from 2000 to 2019 and trained a random forest model (RF) to estimate the relative importance of social determinants in predicting U5MR. We conducted a sensitivity analysis training two more ML models and presenting the mean square error, root mean square error, and median absolute deviation. Our findings indicate that poverty, illiteracy, and the Gini index were the most important variables for predicting U5MR according to the RF. Furthermore, non-linear relationships were found mainly for Gini index and U5MR. Our study suggests that long-term public policies to reduce U5MR in Latin America should focus on reducing poverty, illiteracy, and socioeconomic inequalities. This research provides important insights into the relationships between social determinants and child mortality rates in Latin America. The use of ML algorithms, combined with large longitudinal data, allowed us to evaluate the effects of social determinants on health more carefully than traditional models.

Strengthening self-regulation and reducing poverty to prevent adolescent depression and anxiety: Rationale, approach and methods of the ALIVE interdisciplinary research collaboration in Colombia, Nepal and South Africa.

AIMS: Depression and anxiety are the leading contributors to the global burden of disease among young people, accounting for over a third (34.8%) of years lived with disability. Yet there is limited evidence for interventions that prevent adolescent depression and anxiety in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 90% of adolescents live. This article introduces the 'Improving Adolescent mentaL health by reducing the Impact of poVErty (ALIVE)' study, its conceptual framework, objectives, methods and expected outcomes. The aim of the ALIVE study is to develop and pilot-test an intervention that combines poverty reduction with strengthening self-regulation to prevent depression and anxiety among adolescents living in urban poverty in Colombia, Nepal and South Africa. METHODS: This aim will be achieved by addressing four objectives: (1) develop a conceptual framework that identifies the causal mechanisms linking poverty, self-regulation and depression and anxiety; (2) develop a multi-component selective prevention intervention targeting self-regulation and poverty among adolescents at high risk of developing depression or anxiety; (3) adapt and validate instruments to measure incidence of depression and anxiety, mediators and implementation parameters of the prevention intervention; and (4) undertake a four-arm pilot cluster randomised controlled trial to assess the feasibility, acceptability and cost of the selective prevention intervention in the three study sites. RESULTS: The contributions of this study include the active engagement and participation of adolescents in the research process; a focus on the causal mechanisms of the intervention; building an evidence base for prevention interventions in LMICs; and the use of an interdisciplinary approach. CONCLUSIONS: By developing and evaluating an intervention that addresses multidimensional poverty and self-regulation, ALIVE can make contributions to evidence on the integration of mental health into broader development policy and practice.

Multidimensional poverty and adolescent mental health: Unpacking the relationship.

Extensive research suggests that poverty is associated with adolescent mental health problems. However, studies typically focus on monetary poverty and have not examined how other dimensions of poverty relate to adolescent mental health. This study examines the association between multidimensional poverty and mental health among adolescents using a Multidimensional Poverty Index. Based on data from the National Mental Health Survey in Colombia, we show that adolescents living in multidimensionally poor households have 50% higher risk of having mental health problems compared to adolescents in non-poor households. We unpack and assess the relation between each of the dimensions of poverty and mental health, and whether deprivations directly experienced by the adolescent are more strongly associated with mental health problems than deprivations experienced by other household members. Individual deprivations associated with human capital linked to schooling, work, health insurance and employment are more strongly associated with adolescent mental health problems than material deprivations. Lagging behind in school and working while studying has the strongest association with adolescent mental health problems. Results suggest that public policies that address dimensions of poverty associated with adolescents human capital accumulation may be critical to address mental health problems among adolescents.