CSM-CROPGRO model to simulate safflower phenological development and yield.

Crop simulation models are valuable tools for decision making regarding evaluation and crop improvement under different field conditions. CSM-CROPGRO model integrates genotype, environment and crop management portfolios to simulate growth, development and yield. Modeling the safflower response to varied climate regimes are needed to strengthen its productivity dynamics. The main objective of the study was to evaluate the performance of DSSAT-CSM-CROPGRO-Safflower (Version 4.8.2) under diverse climatic conditions. The model was calibrated using the field observations for phenology, biomass and safflower grain yield (SGY) of the year 2016-17. Estimation of genetic coefficients was performed using GLUE (Genetic Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) program. Simulated results for days to flowering, maturity, biomass at flowering and maturity and SGY were predicted reasonably with good statistical indices. Model evaluation results elucidate phenological events with low root mean square error (6.32 and 6.52) and high d-index (0.95 and 0.96) for days to flowering and maturity respectively for all genotypes and climate conditions. Fair prediction of safflower biomass at flowering and maturity showed low RMSE (887.3 and 564.3 kg ha-1) and high d-index (0.67 and 0.93) for the studied genotypes across the environments. RMSE for validated safflower grain yield (101.8 kg ha-1) and d-index (0.95) depicted that model outperformed for all genotypes and growing conditions. Longer appropriate growing conditions at NARC-Islamabad took optimal duration to assimilate photosynthetic products lead to higher grain yield. Safflower resilience to different environments showed that it can be used as an alternate crop for different agroecological regions. Furthermore, CROPGRO-Safflower model can be used as tool to further evaluate inclusion of safflower in the existing cropping systems of studied regions.

Developing a simple and efficient modeling solution for predicting key phenological stages of table grapes in a non-traditional viticulture zone in south Asia.

Phenological shifts are one of the most visible signs of climatic variability and change in the biosphere. However, modeling plant phenological responses has always been a key challenge due to climatic variability and plant adaptation. Grapevine is a phenologically sensitive crop and, thus, its developmental stages are affected by the increase in temperature. The goal of this study was to develop a temperature-based grapevine phenology model (GPM) for predicting key developmental stages for different table grape cultivars for a non-traditional viticulture zone in south Asia. Experiments were conducted in two vineyards at two locations (Chakwal and Islamabad) in the Pothawar region of Pakistan during the 2019 and 2020 growing seasons for four cultivars including Perlette, King's Ruby, Sugraone and NARC Black. Detailed phenological observations were obtained starting in January until harvest of the grapes. The Mitscherlich monomolecular equation was used to develop the phenology model for table grapes. There was a strong non-linear correlation between the Eichhorn and Lorenz phenological (ELP) scale and growing degree days (GDD) for all cultivars with coefficient of determinations (R2) ranging from 0.90 to 0.94. The results for model development indicated that GPM was able to predict phenological stages with high skill scores, i.e., a root mean square (RMSE) of 2.14 to 2.78 and mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.86 to 2.26 days. The prediction variability of the model for the onset timings of phenological stages was up to 3 days. The results also reveal that the phenology model based on GDD approach provides an efficient planning tool for viticulture industry in different grape growing regions. The proposed methodology, being a simpler one, can be easily applied to other regions and cultivars as a predictor for grapevine phenology.

Seasonal variability in the effect of temperature on key phenological stages of four table grapes cultivars.

Progressive warming of the grape growing regions has reduced the land capability for sustainable grapevine production and the geographical distribution of grapes. Bud burst, blooming, berry set, veraison, and harvest are the key phenological stages of grapevine, and are crucial for managing vineyard activities. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of seasonal temperature variability on the timing of key phenological stages of table grape cultivars in a new emerging viticulture region, i.e., the Pothwar region of Pakistan. Phenological stages of four table grape cultivars were recorded during two consecutive growing seasons at two locations. All phenological stages were attained earlier for the relatively warmer location, i.e., Chakwal. Similarly, the length of the growing season from bud burst to harvest was 15 to 21 days longer for the 2020 growing season than for the 2019 growing season, which corresponds to the inter-annual temperature variability. Moreover, the grapevine cultivars showed a distinct response for each growth phase; cv. Perlette matured earlier while cv. NARC Black was the last to ripen. Despite the large variability in the length of the active growing period from bud burst to harvest, accumulated growing degree days (GDD) varied only in a narrow range, i.e., 1510-1557 for cv. Perlette, 1641-1683 for cv. King's Ruby, 1744-1770 for cv. Sugraone, and 1869-1906 for cv. NARC Black. This implies that seasonal temperature variability using GDD is a better indicator for the phenology of table grape cultivars compared to regular time. It is clear from the results from this study that the variation in phenological responses of table grape cultivars due to temperature differences necessitates genotype and site-specific vineyard management.

Modeling the relationship between air temperature and grapefruit quality traits.

BACKGROUND: Consumers of grapefruit require consistent fruit quality with a good physical appearance and taste. The air temperature during the growing season affects both the external (external color index (ECI)) and internal (titratable acidity (TA) and total soluble solids ratio (TSS/TA)) fruit quality of grapefruit. The objective of this study was to develop computer models that encompass the relationship between preharvest air temperature and fruit quality to predict fruit quality of grapefruit at harvest. RESULTS: There was a logarithmic relationship between the number of days with a daily minimum air temperature ≤13 °C and ECI, with a greater number of days resulting in higher ECI. In addition, there was a second-order polynomial relationship between the number of hours ≥21 °C and both TA and TSS/TA, with a greater number of hours resulting in lower TA and higher TSS/TA. Model performance for predicting the ECI, TA, and TSS/TA during 2004-05 and 2005-06 growing seasons was good, with Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) values for each season of 0.835 and 0.917 respectively for ECI, 0.896 and 0.965 respectively for TA and 0.898 and 0.966 respectively for TSS/TA. Applying the model to statistical survey data covering 13 growing seasons demonstrated that the TSS/TA model was robust. CONCLUSION: Statistical models were developed that predicted the development of grapefruit ECI, TA, and TSS/TA. The TSS/TA model was confirmed after application to long-term statistical survey data covering 13 growing seasons. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Simulation of winter wheat response to variable sowing dates and densities in a high-yielding environment.

Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change. Here, we explore the performance of a MME of 29 wheat crop models to predict the effect of changing sowing dates and rates on yield and yield components, on two sites located in a high-yielding environment in New Zealand. The experiment was conducted for 6 years and provided 50 combinations of sowing date, sowing density and growing season. We show that the MME simulates seasonal growth of wheat well under standard sowing conditions, but fails under early sowing and high sowing rates. The comparison between observed and simulated in-season fraction of intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (FIPAR) for early sown wheat shows that the MME does not capture the decrease of crop above ground biomass during winter months due to senescence. Models need to better account for tiller competition for light, nutrients, and water during vegetative growth, and early tiller senescence and tiller mortality, which are exacerbated by early sowing, high sowing densities, and warmer winter temperatures.

A trait-based model ensemble approach to design rice plant types for future climate.

Crop models are powerful tools to support breeding because of their capability to explore genotype × environment×management interactions that can help design promising plant types under climate change. However, relationships between plant traits and model parameters are often model specific and not necessarily direct, depending on how models formulate plant morphological and physiological features. This hinders model application in plant breeding. We developed a novel trait-based multi-model ensemble approach to improve the design of rice plant types for future climate projections. We conducted multi-model simulations targeting enhanced productivity, and aggregated results into model-ensemble sets of phenotypic traits as defined by breeders rather than by model parameters. This allowed to overcome the limitations due to ambiguities in trait-parameter mapping from single modelling approaches. Breeders' knowledge and perspective were integrated to provide clear mapping from designed plant types to breeding traits. Nine crop models from the AgMIP-Rice Project and sensitivity analysis techniques were used to explore trait responses under different climate and management scenarios at four sites. The method demonstrated the potential of yield improvement that ranged from 15.8% to 41.5% compared to the current cultivars under mid-century climate projections. These results highlight the primary role of phenological traits to improve crop adaptation to climate change, as well as traits involved with canopy development and structure. The variability of plant types derived with different models supported model ensembles to handle related uncertainty. Nevertheless, the models agreed in capturing the effect of the heterogeneity in climate conditions across sites on key traits, highlighting the need for context-specific breeding programmes to improve crop adaptation to climate change. Although further improvement is needed for crop models to fully support breeding programmes, a trait-based ensemble approach represents a major step towards the integration of crop modelling and breeding to address climate change challenges and develop adaptation options.

Modeling growth, development and yield of cassava: A review.

Cassava is an important crop in the developing world. The goal of this study was to review published cassava models (18) for their capability to simulate storage root biomass and to categorize them into static and dynamic models. The majority (14) are dynamic and capture within season growth dynamics. Most (13) of the dynamic models consider environmental factors such as temperature, solar radiation, soil water and nutrient restrictions. More than half (10) have been calibrated for a distinct genotype. Only one of the four static models includes environmental variables. While the static regression models are useful to estimate final yield, their application is limited to the locations or varieties used for their development unless recalibrated for distinct conditions. Dynamic models simulate growth process and provide estimates of yield over time with, in most cases, no fixed maturity date. The dynamic models that simulate the detailed development of nodal units tend to be less accurate in determining final yield compared to the simpler dynamic and statistic models. However, they can be more safely applied to novel environmental conditions that can be explored in silico. Deficiencies in the current models are highlighted including suggestions on how they can be improved. None of the current dynamic cassava models adequately simulates the starch content of fresh cassava roots with almost all models based on dry biomass simulations. Further studies are necessary to develop a new module for existing cassava models to simulate cassava quality.

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2 ], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2 ]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management.

Importance of genetic parameters and uncertainty of MANIHOT, a new mechanistic cassava simulation model.

We identified the most sensitive genotype-specific parameters (GSPs) and their contribution to the uncertainty of the MANIHOT simulation model. We applied a global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSUA) of the GSPs to the simulation outputs for the cassava development, growth, and yield in contrasting environments. We compared enhanced Sampling for Uniformity, a qualitative screening method new to crop simulation modeling, and Sobol, a quantitative, variance-based method. About 80% of the GSPs contributed to most of the variation in maximum leaf area index (LAI), yield, and aboveground biomass at harvest. Relative importance of the GSPs varied between warm and cool temperatures but did not differ between rainfed and no water limitation conditions. Interactions between GSPs explained 20% of the variance in simulated outputs. Overall, the most important GSPs were individual node weight, radiation use efficiency, and maximum individual leaf area. Base temperature for leaf development was more important for cool compared to warm temperatures. Parameter uncertainty had a substantial impact on model predictions in MANIHOT simulations, with the uncertainty 2-5 times larger for warm compared to cool temperatures. Identification of important GSPs provides an objective way to determine the processes of a simulation model that are critical versus those that have little relevance.

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming.

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein.

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

Multimodel ensembles improve predictions of crop-environment-management interactions.

A recent innovation in assessment of climate change impact on agricultural production has been to use crop multimodel ensembles (MMEs). These studies usually find large variability between individual models but that the ensemble mean (e-mean) and median (e-median) often seem to predict quite well. However, few studies have specifically been concerned with the predictive quality of those ensemble predictors. We ask what is the predictive quality of e-mean and e-median, and how does that depend on the ensemble characteristics. Our empirical results are based on five MME studies applied to wheat, using different data sets but the same 25 crop models. We show that the ensemble predictors have quite high skill and are better than most and sometimes all individual models for most groups of environments and most response variables. Mean squared error of e-mean decreases monotonically with the size of the ensemble if models are added at random, but has a minimum at usually 2-6 models if best-fit models are added first. Our theoretical results describe the ensemble using four parameters: average bias, model effect variance, environment effect variance, and interaction variance. We show analytically that mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) of e-mean will always be smaller than MSEP averaged over models and will be less than MSEP of the best model if squared bias is less than the interaction variance. If models are added to the ensemble at random, MSEP of e-mean will decrease as the inverse of ensemble size, with a minimum equal to squared bias plus interaction variance. This minimum value is not necessarily small, and so it is important to evaluate the predictive quality of e-mean for each target population of environments. These results provide new information on the advantages of ensemble predictors, but also show their limitations.

Coupling individual kernel-filling processes with source-sink interactions into GREENLAB-Maize.

Background and Aims: Failure to account for the variation of kernel growth in a cereal crop simulation model may cause serious deviations in the estimates of crop yield. The goal of this research was to revise the GREENLAB-Maize model to incorporate source- and sink-limited allocation approaches to simulate the dry matter accumulation of individual kernels of an ear (GREENLAB-Maize-Kernel). Methods: The model used potential individual kernel growth rates to characterize the individual potential sink demand. The remobilization of non-structural carbohydrates from reserve organs to kernels was also incorporated. Two years of field experiments were conducted to determine the model parameter values and to evaluate the model using two maize hybrids with different plant densities and pollination treatments. Detailed observations were made on the dimensions and dry weights of individual kernels and other above-ground plant organs throughout the seasons. Key Results: Three basic traits characterizing an individual kernel were compared on simulated and measured individual kernels: (1) final kernel size; (2) kernel growth rate; and (3) duration of kernel filling. Simulations of individual kernel growth closely corresponded to experimental data. The model was able to reproduce the observed dry weight of plant organs well. Then, the source-sink dynamics and the remobilization of carbohydrates for kernel growth were quantified to show that remobilization processes accompanied source-sink dynamics during the kernel-filling process. Conclusions: We conclude that the model may be used to explore options for optimizing plant kernel yield by matching maize management to the environment, taking into account responses at the level of individual kernels.

Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in an increase in vulnerable households and the poverty rate.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments.

This study presents results of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions. This first CGRA application provides multi-discipline, multi-scale, and multi-model perspectives to elucidate major challenges for the agricultural sector caused by direct biophysical impacts of climate changes as well as ramifications of associated mitigation strategies. Agriculture in both target climate stabilizations is characterized by differential impacts across regions and farming systems, with tropical maize Zea mays experiencing the largest losses, while soy Glycine max mostly benefits. The result is upward pressure on prices and area expansion for maize and wheat Triticum aestivum, while soy prices and area decline (results for rice Oryza sativa are mixed). An example global mitigation strategy encouraging bioenergy expansion is more disruptive to land use and crop prices than the climate change impacts alone, even in the +2.0°C scenario which has a larger climate signal and lower mitigation requirement than the +1.5°C scenario. Coordinated assessments reveal that direct biophysical and economic impacts can be substantially larger for regional farming systems than global production changes. Regional farmers can buffer negative effects or take advantage of new opportunities via mitigation incentives and farm management technologies. Primary uncertainties in the CGRA framework include the extent of CO2 benefits for diverse agricultural systems in crop models, as simulations without CO2 benefits show widespread production losses that raise prices and expand agricultural area.

A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels.

A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach.

Soybean yield in relation to distance from the Itaipu reservoir.

Crops close to small water bodies may exhibit changes in yield if the water mass causes significant changes in the microclimate of areas near the reservoir shoreline. The scientific literature describes this effect as occurring gradually, with higher intensity in the sites near the shoreline and decreasing intensity with distance from the reservoir. Experiments with two soybean cultivars were conducted during four crop seasons to evaluate soybean yield in relation to distance from the Itaipu reservoir and determine the effect of air temperature and water availability on soybean crop yield. Fifteen experimental sites were distributed in three transects perpendicular to the Itaipu reservoir, covering an area at approximately 10 km from the shoreline. The yield gradient between the site closest to the reservoir and the sites farther away in each transect did not show a consistent trend, but varied as a function of distance, crop season, and cultivar. This finding indicates that the Itaipu reservoir does not affect the yield of soybean plants grown within approximately 10 km from the shoreline. In addition, the variation in yield among the experimental sites was not attributed to thermal conditions because the temperature was similar within transects. However, the crop water availability was responsible for higher differences in yield among the neighboring experimental sites related to water stress caused by spatial variability in rainfall, especially during the soybean reproductive period in January and February.

Climate change enhances stability of wheat-flowering-date.

The stability of winter wheat-flowering-date is crucial for ensuring consistent and robust crop performance across diverse climatic conditions. However, the impact of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates remains uncertain. This study aims to elucidate the influence of climate change on wheat-flowering-dates, predict how projected future climate conditions will affect flowering date stability, and identify the most stable wheat genotypes in the study region. We applied a multi-locus genotype-based (MLG-based) model for simulating wheat-flowering-dates, which we calibrated and evaluated using observed data from the Northern China winter wheat region (NCWWR). This MLG-based model was employed to project flowering dates under different climate scenarios. The simulated flowering dates were then used to assess the stability of flowering dates under varying allelic combinations in projected climatic conditions. Our MLG-based model effectively simulated flowering dates, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.3 days, explaining approximately 88.5 % of the genotypic variation in flowering dates among 100 wheat genotypes. We found that, in comparison to the baseline climate, wheat-flowering-dates are expected to shift earlier within the target sowing window by approximately 11 and 14 days by 2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis revealed that wheat-flowering-date stability is likely to be further strengthened under projected climate scenarios due to early flowering trends. Ultimately, we demonstrate that the combination of Vrn and Ppd genes, rather than individual Vrn or Ppd genes, plays a critical role in wheat-flowering-date stability. Our results suggest that the combination of Ppd-D1a with winter genotypes carrying the vrn-D1 allele significantly contributes to flowering date stability under current and projected climate scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights for wheat breeders and producers under future climatic conditions.

Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change.

Increasing global food demand will require more food production1 without further exceeding the planetary boundaries2 while simultaneously adapting to climate change3. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models with improved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes4 to quantify potential yield gains and associated nitrogen requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved sink and source traits increased yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential-a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen use efficiency, along with yield potential.

Crop model determined mega-environments for cassava yield trials on paddy fields following rice.

The Cropping System Model (CSM)-MANIHOT-Cassava provides the opportunity to determine target environments for cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) yield trials by simulating growth and yield data for various environments. The aim of this research was to investigate whether cassava production on paddy fields in Northeast, Thailand could be grouped into mega-environments using the model. Simulations for four different cassava genotypes grown on paddy field following rice harvest was conducted for various soil types and the weather data from 1988 to 2017. The genotype main effect plus genotype by environment interaction (GGE biplot) technique was used to group the mega-environments. The analyses of yearly data showed inconsistent results across years for environment grouping and for the winning genotypes of the individual environment group. An analysis using GGE biplot with the average value of the simulated storage root dry weight (SDW) for 30 years indicated that all 41 environments were grouped into two different mega-environments. This study demonstrated the ability of the CSM-MANIHOT-Cassava to help identify the mega-environments for cassava yield trials on paddy field during off-season of rice that could help reduce both time and resources.