ABSTRACT
There are only about 7,100 adolescent and adult cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) remaining in the wild. With the majority occurring outside protected areas, their numbers are rapidly declining. Evidence-based conservation measures are essential for the survival of this species. Genetic data is routinely used to inform conservation strategies, e.g., by establishing conservation units (CU). A commonly used marker in conservation genetics is mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). Here, we investigated the cheetah's phylogeography using a large-scale mtDNA data set to refine subspecies distributions and better assign individuals to CUs. Our dataset mostly consisted of historic samples to cover the cheetah's whole range as the species has been extinct in most of its former distribution. While our genetic data largely agree with geography-based subspecies assignments, several geographic regions show conflicting mtDNA signals. Our analyses support previous findings that evolutionary forces such as incomplete lineage sorting or mitochondrial capture likely confound the mitochondrial phylogeography of this species, especially in East and, to some extent, in Northeast Africa. We caution that subspecies assignments solely based on mtDNA should be treated carefully and argue for an additional standardized nuclear single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) marker set for subspecies identification and monitoring. However, the detection of the A. j. soemmeringii specific haplogroup by a newly designed Amplification-Refractory Mutation System (ARMS) can already provide support for conservation measures. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10592-022-01483-1.
ABSTRACT
We live in a world characterized by biodiversity loss and global environmental change. The extinction of large carnivores can have ramifying effects on ecosystems like an uncontrolled increase in wild herbivores, which in turn can have knock-on impacts on vegetation regeneration and communities. Cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) serve important ecosystem functions as apex predators; yet, they are quickly heading towards an uncertain future. Threatened by habitat loss, human-wildlife conflict and illegal trafficking, there are only approximately 7100 individuals remaining in nature. We present the most comprehensive genome-wide analysis of cheetah phylogeography and conservation genomics to date, assembling samples from nearly the entire current and past species' range. We show that their phylogeography is more complex than previously thought, and that East African cheetahs (A. j. raineyi) are genetically distinct from Southern African individuals (A. j. jubatus), warranting their recognition as a distinct subspecies. We found strong genetic differentiation between all classically recognized subspecies, thus refuting earlier findings that cheetahs show only little differentiation. The strongest differentiation was observed between the Asiatic and all the African subspecies. We detected high inbreeding in the Critically Endangered Iranian (A. j. venaticus) and North-western (A. j. hecki) subspecies, and show that overall cheetahs, along with snow leopards, have the lowest genome-wide heterozygosity of all the big cats. This further emphasizes the cheetah's perilous conservation status. Our results provide novel and important information on cheetah phylogeography that can support evidence-based conservation policy decisions to help protect this species. This is especially relevant in light of ongoing and proposed translocations across subspecies boundaries, and the increasing threats of illegal trafficking.
Subject(s)
Acinonyx , Acinonyx/genetics , Animals , Ecosystem , Genome , Genomics , Humans , IranABSTRACT
Protected areas (PAs) play an important role in conserving biodiversity and providing ecosystem services, yet their effectiveness is undermined by funding shortfalls. Using lions (Panthera leo) as a proxy for PA health, we assessed available funding relative to budget requirements for PAs in Africa's savannahs. We compiled a dataset of 2015 funding for 282 state-owned PAs with lions. We applied three methods to estimate the minimum funding required for effective conservation of lions, and calculated deficits. We estimated minimum required funding as $978/km2 per year based on the cost of effectively managing lions in nine reserves by the African Parks Network; $1,271/km2 based on modeled costs of managing lions at ≥50% carrying capacity across diverse conditions in 115 PAs; and $2,030/km2 based on Packer et al.'s [Packer et al. (2013) Ecol Lett 16:635-641] cost of managing lions in 22 unfenced PAs. PAs with lions require a total of $1.2 to $2.4 billion annually, or â¼$1,000 to 2,000/km2, yet received only $381 million annually, or a median of $200/km2 Ninety-six percent of range countries had funding deficits in at least one PA, with 88 to 94% of PAs with lions funded insufficiently. In funding-deficit PAs, available funding satisfied just 10 to 20% of PA requirements on average, and deficits total $0.9 to $2.1 billion. African governments and the international community need to increase the funding available for management by three to six times if PAs are to effectively conserve lions and other species and provide vital ecological and economic benefits to neighboring communities.
Subject(s)
Conservation of Natural Resources/economics , Lions/physiology , Models, Statistical , Africa , Animals , Conservation of Natural Resources/legislation & jurisprudence , Datasets as Topic , EcosystemABSTRACT
Individual specialization, when individuals exploit only a subset of resources utilized by the population, is a widespread phenomenon. It provides the basis for evolutionary diversification and can impact population and community dynamics. Both phenotypic traits and environmental conditions are predicted to influence individual specialization; however, its adaptive consequences are poorly understood, particularly among large mammalian carnivores that play an important role in shaping ecosystems. We used observations of 2,960 kills made by 49 leopards Panthera pardus in the Sabi Sand Game Reserve, South Africa, to quantify the magnitude of individual dietary specialization in a solitary large carnivore, and to examine the proximate and ultimate drivers of this behaviour. We found evidence of individual specialization in leopard diet, with respect to both the species and size of prey killed. Males tended to be more specialized than females, likely because they could access a wider range of prey due to larger body size. Similarly, individuals that encountered a greater diversity of prey tended to be more specialized. Our results confirmed that ecological opportunity was a key determinant of individual specialization; however, contrary to predictions, per capita resource availability (and by extension, intraspecific competition) did not affect the degree of specialization exhibited by individuals. Surprisingly, dietary specialization appeared to disadvantage male leopards. Specialist males overlapped with fewer resident females, had fewer cubs born on their home ranges and had fewer cubs survive to independence on their home ranges than generalist males. This may have resulted from the high degree of environmental stochasticity experienced during our study, as dietary specialization is expected to advantage individuals more during periods of resource predictability. In summary, we showed that a species usually considered to be a dietary generalist was in fact a heterogeneous collection of specialist and generalist individuals. Individual specialization is typically assumed to be maintained by disruptive and/or fluctuating selection; hence, the somewhat paradoxical coexistence of both in the same population might be explained by a dynamic evolutionary equilibrium that exists between specialists and generalists, in which each benefit under different conditions.
Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Panthera , Animals , Diet , Female , Male , South Africa , SpecializationABSTRACT
Research on drivers of demographic rates has mostly focused on top predators and their prey, and comparatively less research has considered the drivers of mesopredator demography. Of those limited studies, most focused on top-down effects of apex predators on mesopredator population dynamics, whereas studies investigating alternative mechanisms are less common. In this study, we tested hypotheses related to top-down, bottom-up and density-dependent regulation of demographic rates in an imperilled mesopredator, the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus). We used a 25-year dataset of lion density, cheetah density and prey density from the Mun-Ya-Wana Conservancy in South Africa and assessed the effects of top-down, bottom-up and density-dependent drivers on cheetah survival and reproduction. In contrast to the top-down and bottom-up predictions, both adult and juvenile cheetahs experienced the lowest survival during months with high prey densities and low lion densities. We observed support only for a density-dependent response in juvenile cheetahs, where they had a higher probability of reaching independence during times with low cheetah density and low prey density. We did not identify any strong drivers of litter size. Collectively, our results indicate that high apex predator abundance might not always have negative effects on mesopredator populations, and suggest that context dependency in top-down, bottom-up and density-dependent factors may regulate demographic rates of cheetahs and other mesopredators. Our results highlight the complexities of population-level drivers of cheetah demographic rates and the importance of considering multiple hypotheses of mesopredator population regulation.
Subject(s)
Acinonyx , Lions , Animals , Population Dynamics , South AfricaABSTRACT
Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at â¼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.
Subject(s)
Acinonyx , Conservation of Natural Resources , Africa , Animals , Asia , Biodiversity , Computer Simulation , Extinction, Biological , Models, Biological , Population Dynamics/trends , Risk FactorsABSTRACT
We compiled all credible repeated lion surveys and present time series data for 47 lion (Panthera leo) populations. We used a Bayesian state space model to estimate growth rate-λ for each population and summed these into three regional sets to provide conservation-relevant estimates of trends since 1990. We found a striking geographical pattern: African lion populations are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe). Population models indicate a 67% chance that lions in West and Central Africa decline by one-half, while estimating a 37% chance that lions in East Africa also decline by one-half over two decades. We recommend separate regional assessments of the lion in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: already recognized as critically endangered in West Africa, our analysis supports listing as regionally endangered in Central and East Africa and least concern in southern Africa. Almost all lion populations that historically exceeded â¼ 500 individuals are declining, but lion conservation is successful in southern Africa, in part because of the proliferation of reintroduced lions in small, fenced, intensively managed, and funded reserves. If management budgets for wild lands cannot keep pace with mounting levels of threat, the species may rely increasingly on these southern African areas and may no longer be a flagship species of the once vast natural ecosystems across the rest of the continent.
Subject(s)
Endangered Species , Lions/physiology , Models, Biological , Africa , Animals , Female , Male , Population DynamicsABSTRACT
Deciding when to terminate care of offspring is a key consideration for parents. Prolonging care may increase fitness of current offspring, but it can also reduce opportunities for future reproduction. Despite its evolutionary importance, few studies have explored the optimal duration of parental care, particularly among large carnivores. We used a 40-year dataset to assess the trade-offs associated with the length of maternal care in leopards in the Sabi Sand Game Reserve, South Africa. We compared the costs imposed by care on the survival and residual reproductive value of leopard mothers against the benefits derived from maternal care in terms of increased offspring survival, recruitment and reproduction. We also examined the demographic and ecological factors affecting the duration of care in the light of five explanatory hypotheses: litter size, sex allocation, resource limitation, timing of independence and terminal investment. Duration of care exhibited by female leopards varied markedly, from 9 to 35 months. Mothers did not appear to suffer any short- or long-term survival costs from caring for cubs, but extending care reduced the number of litters that mothers could produce during their lifetimes. Interestingly, the duration of care did not appear to affect the post-independence survival or reproductive success of offspring (although it may have indirectly affected offspring survival by influencing dispersal distance). However, results from generalised linear mixed models showed that mothers prolonged care during periods of prey scarcity, supporting the resource limitation hypothesis. Female leopards also cared for sons longer than daughters, in line with the sex-allocation hypothesis. Cub survival is an important determinant of the lifetime reproductive success in leopards. By buffering offspring against environmental perturbation without jeopardising their own survivorship, female leopards apparently "hedge their bets" with current offspring rather than gamble on future offspring which have a small probability of surviving. In many species, parents put their own needs before that of their offspring. Leopard mothers appear sensitive to their offspring's demands, and adjust levels of care accordingly.
Subject(s)
Maternal Behavior , Panthera , Reproduction , Animals , Animals, Newborn , Environment , Female , Litter Size , Population Dynamics , Pregnancy , South AfricaABSTRACT
Food caching is a common strategy used by a diversity of animals, including carnivores, to store and/or secure food. Despite its prevalence, the drivers of caching behaviour, and its impacts on individuals, remain poorly understood, particularly for short-term food cachers. Leopards Panthera pardus exhibit a unique form of short-term food caching, regularly hoisting, storing and consuming prey in trees. We explored the factors motivating such behaviour among leopards in the Sabi Sand Game Reserve, South Africa, associated with four not mutually exclusive hypotheses: food-perishability, consumption-time, resource-pulse and kleptoparasitism-avoidance. Using data from 2032 prey items killed by 104 leopards from 2013 to 2015, we built generalized linear mixed models to examine how hoisting behaviour, feeding time and the likelihood of a kill being kleptoparasitized varied with leopard sex and age, prey size and vulnerability, vegetation, elevation, climate, and the immediate and long-term risk posed by dominant competitors. Leopards hoisted 51% of kills. They were more likely to hoist kills of an intermediate size, outside of a resource pulse and in response to the presence of some competitors. Hoisted kills were also fed on for longer than non-hoisted kills. At least 21% of kills were kleptoparasitized, mainly by spotted hyaenas Crocuta crocuta. Kills were more likely to be kleptoparasitized at lower temperatures and if prey were larger, not hoisted, and in areas where the risk of encountering hyaenas was greatest. Female leopards that suffered higher rates of kleptoparasitism exhibited lower annual reproductive success than females that lost fewer kills. Our results strongly support the kleptoparasitism-avoidance hypothesis and suggest hoisting is a key adaptation that enables leopards to coexist sympatrically with high densities of competitors. We further argue that leopards may select smaller-sized prey than predicted by optimal foraging theory, to balance trade-offs between kleptoparasitic losses and the energetic gains derived from killing larger prey. Although caching may provide the added benefits of delaying food perishability and enabling consumption over an extended period, the behaviour primarily appears to be a strategy for leopards, and possibly other short-term cachers, to reduce the risks of kleptoparasitism.
Subject(s)
Food Chain , Hyaenidae/physiology , Panthera/physiology , Predatory Behavior , Animals , Female , Male , South AfricaABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Tackling behavioural questions often requires identifying points in space and time where animals make decisions and linking these to environmental variables. State-space modeling is useful for analysing movement trajectories, particularly with hidden Markov models (HMM). Yet importantly, the ontogeny of underlying (unobservable) behavioural states revealed by the HMMs has rarely been verified in the field. METHODS: Using hidden Markov models of individual movement from animal location, biotelemetry, and environmental data, we explored multistate behaviour and the effect of associated intrinsic and extrinsic drivers across life stages. We also decomposed the activity budgets of different movement states at two general and caching phases. The latter - defined as the period following a kill which likely involves the caching of uneaten prey - was subsequently confirmed by field inspections. We applied this method to GPS relocation data of a caching predator, Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor in northeastern Iran. RESULTS: Multistate modeling provided strong evidence for an effect of life stage on the behavioural states and their associated time budget. Although environmental covariates (ambient temperature and diel period) and ecological outcomes (predation) affected behavioural states in non-resident leopards, the response in resident leopards was not clear, except that temporal patterns were consistent with a crepuscular and nocturnal movement pattern. Resident leopards adopt an energetically more costly mobile behaviour for most of their time while non-residents shift their behavioural states from high energetic expenditure states to energetically less costly encamped behaviour for most of their time, which is likely to be a risk avoidance strategy against conspecifics or humans. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that plasticity in predator behaviour depending on life stage may tackle a trade-off between successful predation and avoiding the risks associated with conspecifics, human presence and maintaining home range. Range residency in territorial predators is energetically demanding and can outweigh the predator's response to intrinsic and extrinsic variables such as thermoregulation or foraging needs. Our approach provides an insight into spatial behavior and decision making of leopards, and other large felids in rugged landscapes through the application of the HMMs in movement ecology.
ABSTRACT
Anthropogenic mortality of wildlife is typically inferred from measures of the absolute decline in population numbers. However, increasing evidence suggests that indirect demographic effects including changes to the age, sex, and social structure of populations, as well as the behavior of survivors, can profoundly impact population health and viability. Specifically, anthropogenic mortality of wildlife (especially when unsustainable) and fragmentation of the spatial distribution of individuals (home-ranges) could disrupt natal dispersal mechanisms, with long-term consequences to genetic structure, by compromising outbreeding behavior and gene flow. We investigate this threat in African leopards (Panthera pardus pardus), a polygynous felid with male-biased natal dispersal. Using a combination of spatial (home-range) and genetic (21 polymorphic microsatellites) data from 142 adult leopards, we contrast the structure of two South African populations with markedly different histories of anthropogenically linked mortality. Home-range overlap, parentage assignment, and spatio-genetic autocorrelation together show that historical exploitation of leopards in a recovering protected area has disrupted and reduced subadult male dispersal, thereby facilitating opportunistic male natal philopatry, with sons establishing territories closer to their mothers and sisters. The resultant kin-clustering in males of this historically exploited population is comparable to that of females in a well-protected reserve and has ultimately led to localized inbreeding. Our findings demonstrate novel evidence directly linking unsustainable anthropogenic mortality to inbreeding through disrupted dispersal in a large, solitary felid and expose the genetic consequences underlying this behavioral change. We therefore emphasize the importance of managing and mitigating the effects of unsustainable exploitation on local populations and increasing habitat fragmentation between contiguous protected areas by promoting in situ recovery and providing corridors of suitable habitat that maintain genetic connectivity.
ABSTRACT
Variability in habitat selection can lead to differences in fitness; however limited research exists on how habitat selection of mid-ranking predators can influence population-level processes in multi-predator systems. For mid-ranking, or mesopredators, differences in habitat use might have strong demographic effects because mesopredators need to simultaneously avoid apex predators and acquire prey. We studied spatially-explicit survival of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Mun-Ya-Wana Conservancy, South Africa, to test hypotheses related to spatial influences of predation risk, prey availability, and vegetation complexity, on mesopredator survival. For each monitored cheetah, we estimated lion encounter risk, prey density, and vegetation complexity within their home range, on short-term (seasonal) and long-term (lifetime) scales and estimated survival based on these covariates. Survival was lowest for adult cheetahs and cubs in areas with high vegetation complexity on both seasonal and lifetime scales. Additionally, cub survival was negatively related to the long-term risk of encountering a lion. We suggest that complex habitats are only beneficial to mesopredators when they are able to effectively find and hunt prey, and show that spatial drivers of survival for mesopredators can vary temporally. Collectively, our research illustrates that individual variation in mesopredator habitat use can scale-up and have population-level effects.
Subject(s)
Acinonyx/physiology , Ecosystem , Predatory Behavior , Animals , Food Chain , Population Dynamics , South AfricaABSTRACT
The population densities of leopards vary widely across their global range, influenced by prey availability, intraguild competition and human persecution. In Asia, particularly the Middle East and the Caucasus, they generally occur at the lower extreme of densities recorded for the species. Reliable estimates of population density are important for understanding their ecology and planning their conservation. We used a photographic spatial capture-recapture (SCR) methodology incorporating animal movement to estimate density for the endangered Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor in three montane national parks, northeastern Iran. We combined encounter history data arising from images of bilaterally asymmetrical left- and right-sided pelage patterns using a Bayesian spatial partial identity model accommodating multiple "non-invasive" marks. We also investigated the effect of camera trap placement on detection probability. Surprisingly, considering the subspecies' reported low abundance and density based on previous studies, we found relatively high population densities in the three national parks, varying between 3.10 ± SD 1.84 and 8.86 ± SD 3.60 individuals/100 km2. The number of leopards detected in Tandoureh National Park (30 individuals) was larger than estimated during comparable surveys at any other site in Iran, or indeed globally. Capture and recapture probabilities were higher for camera traps placed near water resources compared with those placed on trails. Our results show the benefits of protecting even relatively small mountainous areas, which accommodated a high density of leopards and provided refugia in a landscape with substantial human activity.
ABSTRACT
Understanding the space use and movement ecology of apex predators, particularly in mosaic landscapes encompassing different land-uses, is fundamental for formulating effective conservation policy. The top extant big cat in the Middle East and the Caucasus, the Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor, has disappeared from most of its historic range. Its spatial ecology in the areas where it remains is almost unknown. Between September 2014 and May 2017, we collared and monitored six adult leopards (5 males and 1 female) using GPS-satellite Iridium transmitters in Tandoureh National Park (355 km2) along the Iran-Turkmenistan borderland. Using auto-correlated Kernel density estimation based on a continuous-time stochastic process for relocation data, we estimated a mean home range of 103.4 ± SE 51.8 km2 for resident males which is larger than has been observed in other studies of Asian leopards. Most predation events occurred in core areas, averaging 32.4 ± SE 12.7 km2. Although neighboring leopards showed high spatiotemporal overlap, their hunting areas were largely exclusive. Five out of six of leopards spent some time outside the national park, among human communities. Our study suggests that a national park can play an 'anchoring' role for individuals of an apex predator that spend some time in the surrounding human-dominated landscapes. Therefore, we envisage that instead of emphasizing either land sharing or land sparing, a combined approach can secure the viability of resilient large carnivores that are able to coexist with humans in the rugged montane landscapes of west and central Asia.
Subject(s)
Panthera/psychology , Spatial Behavior , Animals , Conservation of Natural Resources , Ecology , Female , Humans , Iran , Male , Territoriality , TurkmenistanABSTRACT
Niche differentiation, the partitioning of resources along one or more axes of a species' niche hyper-volume, is widely recognised as an important mechanism for sympatric species to reduce interspecific competition and predation risk, and thus facilitate co-existence. Resource partitioning may be facilitated by behavioural differentiation along three main niche dimensions: habitat, food and time. In this study, we investigate the extent to which these mechanisms can explain the coexistence of an assemblage of five sympatric felids in Borneo. Using multi-scale logistic regression, we show that Bornean felids exhibit differences in both their broad and fine-scale habitat use. We calculate temporal activity patterns and overlap between these species, and present evidence for temporal separation within this felid guild. Lastly, we conducted an all-subsets logistic regression to predict the occurrence of each felid species as a function of the co-occurrence of a large number of other species and showed that Bornean felids co-occurred with a range of other species, some of which could be candidate prey. Our study reveals apparent resource partitioning within the Bornean felid assemblage, operating along all three niche dimension axes. These results provide new insights into the ecology of these species and the broader community in which they live and also provide important information for conservation planning for this guild of predators.
Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Felidae/physiology , Sympatry , Animals , Body Weight , Borneo , Ecology , Female , Geography , Male , Predatory Behavior , Probability , Regression Analysis , Species Specificity , Time FactorsABSTRACT
The marbled cat Pardofelis marmorata is a poorly known wild cat that has a broad distribution across much of the Indomalayan ecorealm. This felid is thought to exist at low population densities throughout its range, yet no estimates of its abundance exist, hampering assessment of its conservation status. To investigate the distribution and abundance of marbled cats we conducted intensive, felid-focused camera trap surveys of eight forest areas and two oil palm plantations in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Study sites were broadly representative of the range of habitat types and the gradient of anthropogenic disturbance and fragmentation present in contemporary Sabah. We recorded marbled cats from all forest study areas apart from a small, relatively isolated forest patch, although photographic detection frequency varied greatly between areas. No marbled cats were recorded within the plantations, but a single individual was recorded walking along the forest/plantation boundary. We collected sufficient numbers of marbled cat photographic captures at three study areas to permit density estimation based on spatially explicit capture-recapture analyses. Estimates of population density from the primary, lowland Danum Valley Conservation Area and primary upland, Tawau Hills Park, were 19.57 (SD: 8.36) and 7.10 (SD: 1.90) individuals per 100 km2, respectively, and the selectively logged, lowland Tabin Wildlife Reserve yielded an estimated density of 10.45 (SD: 3.38) individuals per 100 km2. The low detection frequencies recorded in our other survey sites and from published studies elsewhere in its range, and the absence of previous density estimates for this felid suggest that our density estimates may be from the higher end of their abundance spectrum. We provide recommendations for future marbled cat survey approaches.
Subject(s)
Animals, Wild , Forests , Animals , Bayes Theorem , Borneo , Cats , Population DensityABSTRACT
Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network.