Developing an individualized treatment rule for Veterans with major depressive disorder using electronic health records.

Efforts to develop an individualized treatment rule (ITR) to optimize major depressive disorder (MDD) treatment with antidepressant medication (ADM), psychotherapy, or combined ADM-psychotherapy have been hampered by small samples, small predictor sets, and suboptimal analysis methods. Analyses of large administrative databases designed to approximate experiments followed iteratively by pragmatic trials hold promise for resolving these problems. The current report presents a proof-of-concept study using electronic health records (EHR) of n = 43,470 outpatients beginning MDD treatment in Veterans Health Administration Primary Care Mental Health Integration (PC-MHI) clinics, which offer access not only to ADMs but also psychotherapy and combined ADM-psychotherapy. EHR and geospatial databases were used to generate an extensive baseline predictor set (5,865 variables). The outcome was a composite measure of at least one serious negative event (suicide attempt, psychiatric emergency department visit, psychiatric hospitalization, suicide death) over the next 12 months. Best-practices methods were used to adjust for nonrandom treatment assignment and to estimate a preliminary ITR in a 70% training sample and to evaluate the ITR in the 30% test sample. Statistically significant aggregate variation was found in overall probability of the outcome related to baseline predictors (AU-ROC = 0.68, S.E. = 0.01), with test sample outcome prevalence of 32.6% among the 5% of patients having highest predicted risk compared to 7.1% in the remainder of the test sample. The ITR found that psychotherapy-only was the optimal treatment for 56.0% of patients (roughly 20% lower risk of the outcome than if receiving one of the other treatments) and that treatment type was unrelated to outcome risk among other patients. Change in aggregate treatment costs of implementing this ITR would be negligible, as 16.1% fewer patients would be prescribed ADMs and 2.9% more would receive psychotherapy. A pragmatic trial would be needed to confirm the accuracy of the ITR.

Patterns, predictors, and patient-reported reasons for antidepressant discontinuation in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Despite their documented efficacy, substantial proportions of patients discontinue antidepressant medication (ADM) without a doctor's recommendation. The current report integrates data on patient-reported reasons into an investigation of patterns and predictors of ADM discontinuation. METHODS: Face-to-face interviews with community samples from 13 countries (n = 30 697) in the World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys included n = 1890 respondents who used ADMs within the past 12 months. RESULTS: 10.9% of 12-month ADM users reported discontinuation-based on recommendation of the prescriber while 15.7% discontinued in the absence of prescriber recommendation. The main patient-reported reason for discontinuation was feeling better (46.6%), which was reported by a higher proportion of patients who discontinued within the first 2 weeks of treatment than later. Perceived ineffectiveness (18.5%), predisposing factors (e.g. fear of dependence) (20.0%), and enabling factors (e.g. inability to afford treatment cost) (5.0%) were much less commonly reported reasons. Discontinuation in the absence of prescriber recommendation was associated with low country income level, being employed, and having above average personal income. Age, prior history of psychotropic medication use, and being prescribed treatment from a psychiatrist rather than from a general medical practitioner, in comparison, were associated with a lower probability of this type of discontinuation. However, these predictors varied substantially depending on patient-reported reasons for discontinuation. CONCLUSION: Dropping out early is not necessarily negative with almost half of individuals noting they felt better. The study underscores the diverse reasons given for dropping out and the need to evaluate how and whether dropping out influences short- or long-term functioning.

Associations of vulnerability to stressful life events with suicide attempts after active duty among high-risk soldiers: results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-longitudinal study (STARRS-LS).

BACKGROUND: The transition from military service to civilian life is a high-risk period for suicide attempts (SAs). Although stressful life events (SLEs) faced by transitioning soldiers are thought to be implicated, systematic prospective evidence is lacking. METHODS: Participants in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) completed baseline self-report surveys while on active duty in 2011-2014. Two self-report follow-up Longitudinal Surveys (LS1: 2016-2018; LS2: 2018-2019) were subsequently administered to probability subsamples of these baseline respondents. As detailed in a previous report, a SA risk index based on survey, administrative, and geospatial data collected before separation/deactivation identified 15% of the LS respondents who had separated/deactivated as being high-risk for self-reported post-separation/deactivation SAs. The current report presents an investigation of the extent to which self-reported SLEs occurring in the 12 months before each LS survey might have mediated/modified the association between this SA risk index and post-separation/deactivation SAs. RESULTS: The 15% of respondents identified as high-risk had a significantly elevated prevalence of some post-separation/deactivation SLEs. In addition, the associations of some SLEs with SAs were significantly stronger among predicted high-risk than lower-risk respondents. Demographic rate decomposition showed that 59.5% (s.e. = 10.2) of the overall association between the predicted high-risk index and subsequent SAs was linked to these SLEs. CONCLUSIONS: It might be possible to prevent a substantial proportion of post-separation/deactivation SAs by providing high-risk soldiers with targeted preventive interventions for exposure/vulnerability to commonly occurring SLEs.

A practical risk calculator for suicidal behavior among transitioning U.S. Army soldiers: results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS).

BACKGROUND: Risk of suicide-related behaviors is elevated among military personnel transitioning to civilian life. An earlier report showed that high-risk U.S. Army soldiers could be identified shortly before this transition with a machine learning model that included predictors from administrative systems, self-report surveys, and geospatial data. Based on this result, a Veterans Affairs and Army initiative was launched to evaluate a suicide-prevention intervention for high-risk transitioning soldiers. To make targeting practical, though, a streamlined model and risk calculator were needed that used only a short series of self-report survey questions. METHODS: We revised the original model in a sample of n = 8335 observations from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS) who participated in one of three Army STARRS 2011-2014 baseline surveys while in service and in one or more subsequent panel surveys (LS1: 2016-2018, LS2: 2018-2019) after leaving service. We trained ensemble machine learning models with constrained numbers of item-level survey predictors in a 70% training sample. The outcome was self-reported post-transition suicide attempts (SA). The models were validated in the 30% test sample. RESULTS: Twelve-month post-transition SA prevalence was 1.0% (s.e. = 0.1). The best constrained model, with only 17 predictors, had a test sample ROC-AUC of 0.85 (s.e. = 0.03). The 10-30% of respondents with the highest predicted risk included 44.9-92.5% of 12-month SAs. CONCLUSIONS: An accurate SA risk calculator based on a short self-report survey can target transitioning soldiers shortly before leaving service for intervention to prevent post-transition SA.

Antidepressant use in low- middle- and high-income countries: a World Mental Health Surveys report.

BACKGROUND: The most common treatment for major depressive disorder (MDD) is antidepressant medication (ADM). Results are reported on frequency of ADM use, reasons for use, and perceived effectiveness of use in general population surveys across 20 countries. METHODS: Face-to-face interviews with community samples totaling n = 49 919 respondents in the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys asked about ADM use anytime in the prior 12 months in conjunction with validated fully structured diagnostic interviews. Treatment questions were administered independently of diagnoses and asked of all respondents. RESULTS: 3.1% of respondents reported ADM use within the past 12 months. In high-income countries (HICs), depression (49.2%) and anxiety (36.4%) were the most common reasons for use. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), depression (38.4%) and sleep problems (31.9%) were the most common reasons for use. Prevalence of use was 2-4 times as high in HICs as LMICs across all examined diagnoses. Newer ADMs were proportionally used more often in HICs than LMICs. Across all conditions, ADMs were reported as very effective by 58.8% of users and somewhat effective by an additional 28.3% of users, with both proportions higher in LMICs than HICs. Neither ADM class nor reason for use was a significant predictor of perceived effectiveness. CONCLUSION: ADMs are in widespread use and for a variety of conditions including but going beyond depression and anxiety. In a general population sample from multiple LMICs and HICs, ADMs were widely perceived to be either very or somewhat effective by the people who use them.

Predicting suicide attempts among U.S. Army soldiers after leaving active duty using information available before leaving active duty: results from the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS).

Suicide risk is elevated among military service members who recently transitioned to civilian life. Identifying high-risk service members before this transition could facilitate provision of targeted preventive interventions. We investigated the feasibility of doing this by attempting to develop a prediction model for self-reported suicide attempts (SAs) after leaving or being released from active duty in the Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers-Longitudinal Study (STARRS-LS). This study included two self-report panel surveys (LS1: 2016-2018, LS2: 2018-2019) administered to respondents who previously participated while on active duty in one of three Army STARRS 2011-2014 baseline self-report surveys. We focus on respondents who left active duty >12 months before their LS survey (n = 8899). An ensemble machine learning model using predictors available prior to leaving active duty was developed in a 70% training sample and validated in a 30% test sample. The 12-month self-reported SA prevalence (SE) was 1.0% (0.1). Test sample AUC (SE) was 0.74 (0.06). The 15% of respondents with highest predicted risk included nearly two-thirds of 12-month SAs and over 80% of medically serious 12-month SAs. These results show that it is possible to identify soldiers at high post-transition self-report SA risk before the transition. Future model development is needed to examine prediction of SAs assessed by administrative data and using surveys administered closer to the time of leaving active duty.

Determinants of effective treatment coverage for posttraumatic stress disorder: findings from the World Mental Health Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with significant morbidity, but efficacious pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy are available. Data from the World Mental Health Surveys were used to investigate extent and predictors of treatment coverage for PTSD in high-income countries (HICs) as well as in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Seventeen surveys were conducted across 15 countries (9 HICs, 6 LMICs) by the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health Surveys. Of 35,012 respondents, 914 met DSM-IV criteria for 12-month PTSD. Components of treatment coverage analyzed were: (a) any mental health service utilization; (b) adequate pharmacotherapy; (c) adequate psychotherapy; and (d) effective treatment coverage. Regression models investigated predictors of treatment coverage. RESULTS: 12-month PTSD prevalence in trauma exposed individuals was 1.49 (S.E., 0.08). A total of 43.0% (S.E., 2.2) received any mental health services, with fewer receiving adequate pharmacotherapy (13.5%), adequate psychotherapy (17.2%), or effective treatment coverage (14.4%), and with all components of treatment coverage lower in LMICs than HICs. In a multivariable model having insurance (OR = 2.31, 95 CI 1.17, 4.57) and severity of symptoms (OR = .35, 95% CI 0.18, 0.70) were predictive of effective treatment coverage. CONCLUSION: There is a clear need to improve pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy coverage for PTSD, particularly in those with mild symptoms, and especially in LMICs. Universal health care insurance can be expected to increase effective treatment coverage and therefore improve outcomes.

Socio-demographic and trauma-related predictors of depression within eight weeks of motor vehicle collision in the AURORA study.

BACKGROUND: This is the first report on the association between trauma exposure and depression from the Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA(AURORA) multisite longitudinal study of adverse post-traumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS) among participants seeking emergency department (ED) treatment in the aftermath of a traumatic life experience. METHODS: We focus on participants presenting at EDs after a motor vehicle collision (MVC), which characterizes most AURORA participants, and examine associations of participant socio-demographics and MVC characteristics with 8-week depression as mediated through peritraumatic symptoms and 2-week depression. RESULTS: Eight-week depression prevalence was relatively high (27.8%) and associated with several MVC characteristics (being passenger v. driver; injuries to other people). Peritraumatic distress was associated with 2-week but not 8-week depression. Most of these associations held when controlling for peritraumatic symptoms and, to a lesser degree, depressive symptoms at 2-weeks post-trauma. CONCLUSIONS: These observations, coupled with substantial variation in the relative strength of the mediating pathways across predictors, raises the possibility of diverse and potentially complex underlying biological and psychological processes that remain to be elucidated in more in-depth analyses of the rich and evolving AURORA database to find new targets for intervention and new tools for risk-based stratification following trauma exposure.

Socio-demographic and trauma-related predictors of PTSD within 8 weeks of a motor vehicle collision in the AURORA study.

This is the initial report of results from the AURORA multisite longitudinal study of adverse post-traumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae (APNS) among participants seeking emergency department (ED) treatment in the aftermath of a traumatic life experience. We focus on n = 666 participants presenting to EDs following a motor vehicle collision (MVC) and examine associations of participant socio-demographic and participant-reported MVC characteristics with 8-week posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) adjusting for pre-MVC PTSD and mediated by peritraumatic symptoms and 2-week acute stress disorder (ASD). Peritraumatic Symptoms, ASD, and PTSD were assessed with self-report scales. Eight-week PTSD prevalence was relatively high (42.0%) and positively associated with participant sex (female), low socioeconomic status (education and income), and several self-report indicators of MVC severity. Most of these associations were entirely mediated by peritraumatic symptoms and, to a lesser degree, ASD, suggesting that the first 2 weeks after trauma may be a uniquely important time period for intervening to prevent and reduce risk of PTSD. This observation, coupled with substantial variation in the relative strength of mediating pathways across predictors, raises the possibility of diverse and potentially complex underlying biological and psychological processes that remain to be elucidated with more in-depth analyses of the rich and evolving AURORA data.

Patterns of care and dropout rates from outpatient mental healthcare in low-, middle- and high-income countries from the World Health Organization's World Mental Health Survey Initiative.

BACKGROUND: There is a substantial proportion of patients who drop out of treatment before they receive minimally adequate care. They tend to have worse health outcomes than those who complete treatment. Our main goal is to describe the frequency and determinants of dropout from treatment for mental disorders in low-, middle-, and high-income countries. METHODS: Respondents from 13 low- or middle-income countries (N = 60 224) and 15 in high-income countries (N = 77 303) were screened for mental and substance use disorders. Cross-tabulations were used to examine the distribution of treatment and dropout rates for those who screened positive. The timing of dropout was examined using Kaplan-Meier curves. Predictors of dropout were examined with survival analysis using a logistic link function. RESULTS: Dropout rates are high, both in high-income (30%) and low/middle-income (45%) countries. Dropout mostly occurs during the first two visits. It is higher in general medical rather than in specialist settings (nearly 60% v. 20% in lower income settings). It is also higher for mild and moderate than for severe presentations. The lack of financial protection for mental health services is associated with overall increased dropout from care. CONCLUSIONS: Extending financial protection and coverage for mental disorders may reduce dropout. Efficiency can be improved by managing the milder clinical presentations at the entry point to the mental health system, providing adequate training, support and specialist supervision for non-specialists, and streamlining referral to psychiatrists for more severe cases.

Toward measuring effective treatment coverage: critical bottlenecks in quality- and user-adjusted coverage for major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Shortfalls in treatment quantity and quality are well-established, but the specific gaps in pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy are poorly understood. This paper analyzes the gap in treatment coverage for MDD and identifies critical bottlenecks. METHODS: Seventeen surveys were conducted across 15 countries by the World Health Organization-World Mental Health Surveys Initiative. Of 35 012 respondents, 3341 met DSM-IV criteria for 12-month MDD. The following components of effective treatment coverage were analyzed: (a) any mental health service utilization; (b) adequate pharmacotherapy; (c) adequate psychotherapy; and (d) adequate severity-specific combination of both. RESULTS: MDD prevalence was 4.8% (s.e., 0.2). A total of 41.8% (s.e., 1.1) received any mental health services, 23.2% (s.e., 1.5) of which was deemed effective. This 90% gap in effective treatment is due to lack of utilization (58%) and inadequate quality or adherence (32%). Critical bottlenecks are underutilization of psychotherapy (26 percentage-points reduction in coverage), underutilization of psychopharmacology (13-point reduction), inadequate physician monitoring (13-point reduction), and inadequate drug-type (10-point reduction). High-income countries double low-income countries in any mental health service utilization, adequate pharmacotherapy, adequate psychotherapy, and adequate combination of both. Severe cases are more likely than mild-moderate cases to receive either adequate pharmacotherapy or psychotherapy, but less likely to receive an adequate combination. CONCLUSIONS: Decision-makers need to increase the utilization and quality of pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy. Innovations such as telehealth for training and supervision plus non-specialist or community resources to deliver pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy could address these bottlenecks.

Developing an optimal short-form of the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5).

BACKGROUND: Although several short-forms of the posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) Checklist (PCL) exist, all were developed using heuristic methods. This report presents the results of analyses designed to create an optimal short-form PCL for DSM-5 (PCL-5) using both machine learning and conventional scale development methods. METHODS: The short-form scales were developed using independent datasets collected by the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience among Service members. We began by using a training dataset (n = 8,917) to fit short-form scales with between 1 and 8 items using different statistical methods (exploratory factor analysis, stepwise logistic regression, and a new machine learning method to find an optimal integer-scored short-form scale) to predict dichotomous PTSD diagnoses determined using the full PCL-5. A smaller subset of best short-form scales was then evaluated in an independent validation sample (n = 11,728) to select one optimal short-form scale based on multiple operating characteristics (area under curve [AUC], calibration, sensitivity, specificity, net benefit). RESULTS: Inspection of AUCs in the training sample and replication in the validation sample led to a focus on 4-item integer-scored short-form scales selected with stepwise regression. Brier scores in the validation sample showed that a number of these scales had comparable calibration (0.015-0.032) and AUC (0.984-0.994), but that one had consistently highest net benefit across a plausible range of decision thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: The recommended 4-item integer-scored short-form PCL-5 generates diagnoses that closely parallel those of the full PCL-5, making it well-suited for screening.

Predeployment predictors of psychiatric disorder-symptoms and interpersonal violence during combat deployment.

BACKGROUND: Preventing suicides, mental disorders, and noncombat-related interpersonal violence during deployment are priorities of the US Army. We used predeployment survey and administrative data to develop actuarial models to identify soldiers at high risk of these outcomes during combat deployment. METHODS: The models were developed in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) Pre-Post Deployment Study, a panel study of soldiers deployed to Afghanistan in 2012-2013. Soldiers completed self-administered questionnaires before deployment and one (T1), three (T2), and nine months (T3) after deployment, and consented to administrative data linkage. Seven during-deployment outcomes were operationalized using the postdeployment surveys. Two overlapping samples were used because some outcomes were assessed at T1 (n = 7,048) and others at T2-T3 (n = 7,081). Ensemble machine learning was used to develop a model for each outcome from 273 predeployment predictors, which were compared to simple logistic regression models. RESULTS: The relative improvement in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) obtained by machine learning compared to the logistic models ranged from 1.11 (major depression) to 1.83 (suicidality).The best-performing machine learning models were for major depression (AUC = 0.88), suicidality (0.86), and generalized anxiety disorder (0.85). Roughly 40% of these outcomes occurred among the 5% of soldiers with highest predicted risk. CONCLUSIONS: Actuarial models could be used to identify high risk soldiers either for exclusion from deployment or preventive interventions. However, the ultimate value of this approach depends on the associated costs, competing risks (e.g. stigma), and the effectiveness to-be-determined interventions.

Improving risk prediction accuracy for new soldiers in the U.S. Army by adding self-report survey data to administrative data.

BACKGROUND: High rates of mental disorders, suicidality, and interpersonal violence early in the military career have raised interest in implementing preventive interventions with high-risk new enlistees. The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) developed risk-targeting systems for these outcomes based on machine learning methods using administrative data predictors. However, administrative data omit many risk factors, raising the question whether risk targeting could be improved by adding self-report survey data to prediction models. If so, the Army may gain from routinely administering surveys that assess additional risk factors. METHODS: The STARRS New Soldier Survey was administered to 21,790 Regular Army soldiers who agreed to have survey data linked to administrative records. As reported previously, machine learning models using administrative data as predictors found that small proportions of high-risk soldiers accounted for high proportions of negative outcomes. Other machine learning models using self-report survey data as predictors were developed previously for three of these outcomes: major physical violence and sexual violence perpetration among men and sexual violence victimization among women. Here we examined the extent to which this survey information increases prediction accuracy, over models based solely on administrative data, for those three outcomes. We used discrete-time survival analysis to estimate a series of models predicting first occurrence, assessing how model fit improved and concentration of risk increased when adding the predicted risk score based on survey data to the predicted risk score based on administrative data. RESULTS: The addition of survey data improved prediction significantly for all outcomes. In the most extreme case, the percentage of reported sexual violence victimization among the 5% of female soldiers with highest predicted risk increased from 17.5% using only administrative predictors to 29.4% adding survey predictors, a 67.9% proportional increase in prediction accuracy. Other proportional increases in concentration of risk ranged from 4.8% to 49.5% (median = 26.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Data from an ongoing New Soldier Survey could substantially improve accuracy of risk models compared to models based exclusively on administrative predictors. Depending upon the characteristics of interventions used, the increase in targeting accuracy from survey data might offset survey administration costs.

Suicidal thoughts and behaviors among college students and same-aged peers: results from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys.

PURPOSE: The primary aims are to (1) obtain representative prevalence estimates of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) among college students worldwide and (2) investigate whether STB is related to matriculation to and attrition from college. METHODS: Data from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys were analyzed, which include face-to-face interviews with 5750 young adults aged 18-22 spanning 21 countries (weighted mean response rate = 71.4%). Standardized STB prevalence estimates were calculated for four well-defined groups of same-aged peers: college students, college attriters (i.e., dropouts), secondary school graduates who never entered college, and secondary school non-graduates. Logistic regression assessed the association between STB and college entrance as well as attrition from college. RESULTS: Twelve-month STB in college students was 1.9%, a rate significantly lower than same-aged peers not in college (3.4%; OR 0.5; p < 0.01). Lifetime prevalence of STB with onset prior to age 18 among college entrants (i.e., college students or attriters) was 7.2%, a rate significantly lower than among non-college attenders (i.e., secondary school graduates or non-graduates; 8.2%; OR 0.7; p = 0.03). Pre-matriculation onset STB (but not post-matriculation onset STB) increased the odds of college attrition (OR 1.7; p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: STB with onset prior to age 18 is associated with reduced likelihood of college entrance as well as greater attrition from college. Future prospective research should investigate the causality of these associations and determine whether targeting onset and persistence of childhood-adolescent onset STB leads to improved educational attainment.

Long-term effects of mental disorders on marital outcomes in the National Comorbidity Survey ten-year follow-up.

PURPOSE: Epidemiological research has consistently shown an association between mental disorders and marital dissolution. However, this research mostly examined the association of divorce as a risk factor for mental illness. This study prospectively examined the associations of mood, anxiety, and substance use disorders with future marital dissolution and new marriages in a representative population sample. METHODS: The study used data from the National Comorbidity Survey panel study-a two-wave community epidemiological survey of 5001 participants interviewed in 1990-1992 and re-interviewed in 2001-2003. Mental disorders were ascertained with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured instrument. Associations of baseline lifetime disorders and disorders with onset after the baseline with subsequent divorce and marriage/remarriage were examined using discrete-time survival analysis models. RESULTS: Mental disorders at baseline or with onset after baseline were associated with significantly greater odds of subsequent divorce among respondents who either were married at baseline or got married after baseline. Mental disorders with onset after baseline were associated with smaller odds of marriage or remarriage. Projections assuming causal effects of mental illness on marital outcomes suggest that preventing the effects of common mood, anxiety, and substance use disorders would be associated with 6.7 million fewer divorces and 3.5 million more marriages in the US population over an 11-year period. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with common mental disorders are at greater risk of marital dissolution and are less likely to enter new marriages. These factors contribute to the diminished social engagement and social support for individuals with these disorders. Interventions aimed at improving marital and family relationships could potentially ameliorate the effect of mental disorders on these vital social ties.

Lifetime prevalence of DSM-IV mental disorders among new soldiers in the U.S. Army: results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of 30-day mental disorders with retrospectively reported early onsets is significantly higher in the U.S. Army than among socio-demographically matched civilians. This difference could reflect high prevalence of preenlistment disorders and/or high persistence of these disorders in the context of the stresses associated with military service. These alternatives can to some extent be distinguished by estimating lifetime disorder prevalence among new Army recruits. METHODS: The New Soldier Study (NSS) in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) used fully structured measures to estimate lifetime prevalence of 10 DSM-IV disorders in new soldiers reporting for Basic Combat Training in 2011-2012 (n = 38,507). Prevalence was compared to estimates from a matched civilian sample. Multivariate regression models examined socio-demographic correlates of disorder prevalence and persistence among new soldiers. RESULTS: Lifetime prevalence of having at least one internalizing, externalizing, or either type of disorder did not differ significantly between new soldiers and civilians, although three specific disorders (generalized anxiety, posttraumatic stress, and conduct disorders) and multimorbidity were significantly more common among new soldiers than civilians. Although several socio-demographic characteristics were significantly associated with disorder prevalence and persistence, these associations were uniformly weak. CONCLUSIONS: New soldiers differ somewhat, but not consistently, from civilians in lifetime preenlistment mental disorders. This suggests that prior findings of higher prevalence of current disorders with preenlistment onsets among soldiers than civilians are likely due primarily to a more persistent course of early-onset disorders in the context of the special stresses experienced by Army personnel.

Prevalence and correlates of suicidal behavior among new soldiers in the U.S. Army: results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS).

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of suicide among U.S. Army soldiers has risen dramatically in recent years. Prior studies suggest that most soldiers with suicidal behaviors (i.e., ideation, plans, and attempts) had first onsets prior to enlistment. However, those data are based on retrospective self-reports of soldiers later in their Army careers. Unbiased examination of this issue requires investigation of suicidality among new soldiers. METHOD: The New Soldier Study (NSS) of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) used fully structured self-administered measures to estimate preenlistment histories of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts among new soldiers reporting for Basic Combat Training in 2011-2012. Survival models examined sociodemographic correlates of each suicidal outcome. RESULTS: Lifetime prevalence estimates of preenlistment suicide ideation, plans, and attempts were 14.1, 2.3, and 1.9%, respectively. Most reported onsets of suicide plans and attempts (73.3-81.5%) occurred within the first year after onset of ideation. Odds of these lifetime suicidal behaviors among new soldiers were positively, but weakly associated with being female, unmarried, religion other than Protestant or Catholic, and a race/ethnicity other than non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, or Hispanic. CONCLUSIONS: Lifetime prevalence estimates of suicidal behaviors among new soldiers are consistent with retrospective reports of preenlistment prevalence obtained from soldiers later in their Army careers. Given that prior suicidal behaviors are among the strongest predictors of later suicides, consideration should be given to developing methods of obtaining valid reports of preenlistment suicidality from new soldiers to facilitate targeting of preventive interventions.

Long-term effects of mental disorders on employment in the National Comorbidity Survey ten-year follow-up.

PURPOSE: Although significant negative associations of mental disorders with employment have been documented in epidemiological research, much of this research was based on cross-sectional samples and focused only on severe and persistent mental disorders. The present study examined the longitudinal associations of more common mental disorders with employment. METHODS: Data on the associations of common mental disorders with employment are presented here from 4501 respondents in the National Comorbidity Survey panel study, a two-wave community epidemiological survey of respondents aged 15-54 at baseline (1990-1992) who were re-interviewed in 2001-2003 and were employed, unemployed in the labor force or student at baseline. Lifetime mental disorders at baseline and disorders with onset after baseline were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured interview that assessed lifetime prevalence of internalizing fear disorders (panic, phobias), anxiety/misery disorders (major depression, generalized anxiety disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder), externalizing disorders (conduct disorder, alcohol and illicit drug abuse-dependence), and bipolar disorder. RESULTS: Both baseline lifetime disorders and disorders with onsets after baseline were associated with significantly reduced odds of subsequent employment among respondents who were either employed or students at baseline. Population projections based on the assumption that these associations represented causal effects suggest that the mental disorders considered here were associated with 1.7-3.2 million adults being unemployed in the US population at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Expanded access to treatment among current employees and students with mental disorders might lead to improved employment outcomes in these segments of the population.

Long-term effects of mental disorders on educational attainment in the National Comorbidity Survey ten-year follow-up.

PURPOSE: The study sought to examine the association of mental disorders with educational attainment in a community sample. METHODS: Data were from 5001 respondents aged 15-54 in the 1990-1992 National Comorbidity Survey (NCS), re-interviewed in the 2001-2003 NCS follow-up (NCS-2). Discrete-time survival analysis was used to examine the association of disorders present at baseline (NCS) or having first onset after the baseline (assessed in NCS-2) with educational outcomes among 3954 eligible respondents. Mental disorders were categorized into internalizing fear disorders (simple phobia, social phobia, panic disorder with/without agoraphobia and agoraphobia without panic disorder), internalizing anxiety-misery disorders (major depressive disorder, generalized anxiety disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder), externalizing disorders (alcohol and drug use disorders, conduct disorder) and bipolar disorder. Analyses were conducted separately in students and non-students at baseline. RESULTS: Among students, baseline bipolar and externalizing disorders, as well as fear, anxiety-misery and externalizing disorders with onset after baseline were associated with lower odds of high school graduation; baseline anxiety-misery disorders with lower odds of going to college; and baseline externalizing disorders and bipolar disorder with onset after baseline with lower odds of college graduation. Among non-students, baseline fear disorders were associated with lower odds of high school graduation and bipolar disorder with lower odds of going to college. Assuming that the regression coefficients represent causal effects, mental disorders accounted for 5.8-11.0% of high school and 3.2-11.4% of college non-completion. CONCLUSIONS: Expanding access to mental health services for youth might have a net positive societal value by helping to prevent some of these adverse educational outcomes.