Guidelines for clinical evaluation of chronic kidney disease in early stages : AMED research on regulatory science of pharmaceuticals and medical devices.

BACKGROUND: For the development of pharmaceutical products in kidney field, appropriate surrogate endpoints which can predict long-term prognosis are needed as an alternative to hard endpoints, such as end-stage kidney disease. Though international workshop has proposed estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) slope reduction of 0.5-1.0 mL/min/1.73 m /year and 30% decrease in albuminuria/proteinuria as surrogate endpoints in early and advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), it was not clear whether these are applicable to Japanese patients. METHODS: We analyzed J-CKD-DB and CKD-JAC, Japanese databases/cohorts of CKD patients, and J-DREAMS, a Japanese database of patients with diabetes mellitus to investigate the applicability of eGFR slope and albuminuria/proteinuria to the Japanese population. Systematic review on those endpoints was also conducted including the results of clinical trials published after the above proposal. RESULTS: Our analysis showed an association between eGFR slope and the risk of end-stage kidney disease. A 30% decrease in albuminuria/proteinuria over 2 years corresponded to a 20% decrease in the risk of end-stage kidney disease patients with baseline UACR ≥ 30 mg/gCre or UPCR ≥ 0.15 g/gCre in the analysis of CKD-JAC, though this analysis was not performed on the other database/cohort. Those results suggested similar trends to those of the systematic review. CONCLUSION: The results suggested that eGFR slope and decreased albuminuria/proteinuria may be used as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for early CKD (including diabetic kidney disease) in Japanese population, though its validity and cutoff values must be carefully considered based on the latest evidence and other factors.

Cigarette smoking and progression of kidney dysfunction: a longitudinal cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Cigarette smoking is one of the most important life-modifiable risk factors for CVD events. The effect on CKD progression caused by smoking remained uncertain, while the effect on CVD had been established. METHOD: The study population included participants from the specific health check and specific health guidance, an annual health check-up for all inhabitants of Japan who were aged between 40 and 74 years. 149,260 subjects (male, 37.1%; female, 62.9%) were included in this analysis. RESULTS: The relationship between smoking status along with new-onset proteinuria and eGFR deterioration more than 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 was examined. Median observation periods were 1427 days [738, 1813] in males and 1437 days [729, 1816] in females. In male participants, the strongest factor upon kidney dysfunction was new-onset proteinuria (1.41 [1.31 1.51], P < 0.001). The second strongest factor on kidney deterioration was smoking (1.24 [1.16 1.31], P < 0.001). In female participants, strongest factor upon kidney dysfunction was smoking (1.27 [1.16-1.39], P < 0.001). The second strongest factor on kidney deterioration was new-onset proteinuria (1.26 [1.17 1.36], P < 0.001). To reveal the relationship of effects from new-onset proteinuria and smoking on the kidney function, the participants were divided into four groups with and without new-onset proteinuria and smoking. The group with both proteinuria and smoking had significantly worst renal prognosis (P for trend < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Large longitudinal observation study revealed smoking has an evil effect on the progression of CKD. This evil effect could be observed in CKD patients with proteinuria as well as in general population without new-onset proteinuria.

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation: Evaluation of Novel Input Variables including eGFR Estimated Using the CKD-EPI 2021 Equation in 59 Cohorts.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure in populations with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . However, the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR is now recommended for use but has not been fully tested in the context of KFRE. In 59 cohorts comprising 312,424 patients with CKD, the authors assessed the predictive performance and calibration associated with the use of the CKD-EPI 2021 equation and whether additional variables and accounting for the competing risk of death improves the KFRE's performance. The KFRE generally performed well using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR in populations with eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and was not improved by adding the 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. BACKGROUND: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict kidney failure risk in people with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . METHODS: Using 59 cohorts with 312,424 patients with CKD, we tested several modifications to the KFRE for their potential to improve the KFRE: using the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR, substituting 1-year average ACR for single-measure ACR and 1-year average eGFR in participants with high eGFR variability, and adding 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. We also assessed calibration of the KFRE in subgroups of eGFR and age before and after accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: The KFRE remained accurate and well calibrated overall using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR equation. The other modifications did not improve KFRE performance. In subgroups of eGFR 45-59 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and in older adults using the 5-year time horizon, the KFRE demonstrated systematic underprediction and overprediction, respectively. We developed and tested a new model with a spline term in eGFR and incorporating the competing risk of mortality, resulting in more accurate calibration in those specific subgroups but not overall. CONCLUSIONS: The original KFRE is generally accurate for eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 when using the CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Incorporating competing risk methodology and splines for eGFR may improve calibration in low-risk settings with longer time horizons. Including historical averages, eGFR slopes, or a competing risk design did not meaningfully alter KFRE performance in most circumstances.

Blood Pressure, Hypertension, and the Risk of Aortic Dissection Incidence and Mortality: Results From the J-SCH Study, the UK Biobank Study, and a Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension or elevated blood pressure (BP) is an important risk factor for aortic dissection (AD); however, few prospective studies on this topic have been published. We investigated the association between hypertension/elevated BP and AD in 2 cohorts and conducted a meta-analysis of published prospective studies, including these 2 studies. METHODS: We analyzed data from the J-SHC study (Japan-Specific Health Checkups) and UK Biobank, which prospectively followed up 534 378 and 502 424 participants, respectively. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for the association of hypertension/elevated BP with AD incidence in the UK Biobank and AD mortality in the J-SHC Study. In the meta-analysis, summary relative risks were calculated with random-effects models. A potential nonlinear dose-response relationship between BP and AD was tested with fractional polynomial models, and the best-fitting second-order fractional polynomial regression model was determined. RESULTS: In the J-SHC study and UK Biobank, there were 84 and 182 ADs during the 4- and 9-year follow-up, and the adjusted hazard ratios of AD were 3.57 (95% CI, 2.17-6.11) and 2.68 (95% CI, 1.78-4.04) in hypertensive individuals, 1.33 (95% CI, 1.05-1.68) and 1.27 (95% CI, 1.11-1.48) per 20-mm Hg increase in systolic BP (SBP), and 1.67 (95% CI, 1.40-2.00) and 1.66 (95% CI, 1.46-1.89) per 10-mm Hg increase in diastolic BP (DBP), respectively. In the meta-analysis, the summary relative risks were 3.07 (95% CI, 2.15-4.38, I2=76.7%, n=7 studies, 2818 ADs, 4 563 501 participants) for hypertension and 1.39 (95% CI, 1.16-1.66, I2=47.7%, n=3) and 1.79 (95% CI: 1.51-2.12, I2 = 57.0%, n=3) per 20-mm Hg increase in SBP and per 10-mm Hg increase in DBP, respectively. The AD risk showed a strong, positive dose-response relationship with SBP and even more so with DBP. The risk of AD in the nonlinear dose-response analysis was significant at SBP >132 mm Hg and DBP >75 mm Hg. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension and elevated SBP and DBP are associated with a high risk of AD. The risk of AD was positively dose dependent, even within the normal BP range. These findings provide further evidence for the optimization of BP to prevent AD.

Long-term effectiveness of a primary care practice facilitation program for chronic kidney disease management: an extended follow-up of a cluster-randomized FROM-J study.

BACKGROUND: Practice facilitation program by multidisciplinary care for primary care physicians (PCPs) is expected to improve chronic kidney disease (CKD) outcomes, but there is no clear evidence of its long-term effectiveness. We have previously performed a cluster-randomized controlled trial for 3.5 years (the Frontier of Renal Outcome Modifications in Japan (FROM-J) study) with two arms-group A without the program and group B with the program. We aimed to assess the long-term effectiveness of the practice facilitation program on CKD outcomes via an extended 10-year follow-up of the FROM-J study. METHODS: We enrolled patients who were in the FROM-J study. The primary composite endpoint comprised cardiovascular disease (CVD), renal replacement therapy initiation and a 50% decrease in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The secondary endpoints were survival rate, eGFR decline rate and collaboration rate between PCPs and nephrologists. RESULTS: The occurrence of the primary composite endpoint tended to be lower in group B (group A: 27.1% versus group B: 22.1%, P = 0.051). Furthermore, CVD incidence was remarkably lower in group B (group A: 10.5% versus group B: 6.4%, P = 0.001). Although both mortality and the rate of eGFR decline were identical between both groups, the eGFR decline rate was significantly better in group B than in group A only in patients with stage G3a at enrollment (group A: 2.35 ± 3.87 mL/min/1.73 m2/year versus group B: 1.68 ± 2.98 mL/min/1.73 m2/year, P = 0.02). The collaboration rate was higher in group B. CONCLUSIONS: The CKD practice facilitation program for PCPs reliably decreases CVD events and may reduce the progression of cases to end-stage kidney disease.

Long-term Weight Loss as a Predictor of Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients.

BACKGROUND: Serial weight decrease can be a prognostic predictor in chronic hemodialysis (HD) patients. We investigated the impact of long-term post-HD body weight (BW) changes on all-cause mortality among HD patients. METHODS: This longitudinal cohort study and post-hoc analysis evaluated participants of a previous randomized controlled trial conducted between 2006 and 2011 who were followed up until 2018. Weight change slopes were generated with repeated measurements every 6 months during the trial for patients having ≥5 BW measurements. Participants were categorized into four groups based on quartiles of weight change slopes; the median weight changes per 6 months were -1.02 kg, -0.25 kg, +0.26 kg, and +0.86 kg for first, second, third, and fourth quartile, respectively. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to evaluate differences in subsequent survival among the four groups. BW trajectories were plotted with a backward time-scale and multilevel regression analysis to visualize the difference in BW trajectories between survivors and non-survivors. RESULTS: Among the 461 patients, 404 were evaluated, and 168 (41.6%) died within a median follow-up period of 10.2 years. The Cox proportional hazard regression adjusted for covariates and baseline BW showed that a higher rate of weight loss was associated with higher mortality. The hazard ratios were 2.02 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28-3.20), 1.77 (95% CI, 1.10-2.85), 1.00 (reference), and 1.11 (95% CI, 0.67-1.83) for the first, second, third (reference), and fourth quartiles, respectively. BW trajectories revealed a significant decrease in BW in non-survivors. CONCLUSION: Weight loss elucidated via serial BW measurements every 6 months is significantly associated with higher mortality among HD patients.

Trace proteinuria detected via dipstick test is associated with kidney function decline and new-onset overt proteinuria: the Japan Specific Health Checkups (J-SHC) Study.

BACKGROUND: Microalbuminuria is associated with mortality, cardiovascular disease, and end-stage kidney disease. The association between trace proteinuria (detected via dipstick test) and kidney outcomes is unclear. METHODS: This nationwide longitudinal study used data from the Japan Specific Health Checkups Study conducted during 2008-2014. The frequency of trace proteinuria (detected via dipstick test) during first two visits was used as an exposure variable (TrUP 0/2, no trace proteinuria; TrUP 1/2, detected once; TrUP 2/2, detected twice), and kidney outcomes were evaluated. The association between the frequency of trace proteinuria and incidence of 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine levels and overt proteinuria was analyzed using Cox regression analysis. Trajectories of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were compared using a mixed-effect model. RESULTS: Among 306,317 participants, 3188 and 17,461 developed a 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine levels and new-onset overt proteinuria, respectively, during the median follow-up period of 36.2 months. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine level in the TrUP 1/2 and TrUP 2/2 groups, compared to TrUP 0/2 group, were 1.23 (1.07-1.42) and 1.39 (1.01-1.92), respectively, and the adjusted HR (95% CI) for overt proteinuria were 2.94 (2.83-3.06) and 5.14 (4.80-5.51), respectively. The eGFR decline rates in the TrUP 1/2 and TrUP 2/2 groups were higher than that in the TrUP 0/2 group (p for interaction < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Trace proteinuria (detected via dipstick test) was associated with subsequent kidney function decline and overt proteinuria in the general population.

Synergistic effect of proteinuria on dipstick hematuria-related decline in kidney function: The Japan Specific Health Checkups (J-SHC) Study.

BACKGROUND: The effect of isolated hematuria without proteinuria on kidney function decline, and the modification by the severity of proteinuria in general population are not fully elucidated. METHODS: Participants were included in the Japan Specific Health Checkups Study between 2008 and 2014. The exposure of interest was the frequency of dipstick hematuria during the observation. In each proteinuria frequency category (non-, occasional, persistent), hematuria-related decline in the eGFR rate was examined by analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). eGFR decline trajectories were also assessed using mixed-effects models. RESULTS: Among the 552,951 participants, 146,753 (26.5%) had hematuria, and 56,021 (10.1%) and 8,061 (1.5%) had occasional and persistent proteinuria, respectively. During the median follow-up of 3.0 years, annual change in eGFR decline in participants with hematuria was significantly faster than in those without hematuria (mean [95% confidence interval]: - 0.95 [- 0.98 to - 0.92] vs - 0.86 [- 0.87 to - 0.84] mL/min/1.73 m2/year; P < 0.001). In ANCOVA, the hematuria-related annual eGFR decline rate increased as proteinuria frequency categories increased (differences in annual eGFR decline rate between participants with and without hematuria: 0.08 [0.06 to 0.09] in participants with non-proteinuria category, 0.17 [0.15 to 0.18] in occasional proteinuria category, and 0.68 [0.65 to 0.71] mL/min/1.73 m2/year in persistent proteinuria category; P for interaction < 0.001). Similar results were obtained by the linear mixed-effect model. CONCLUSIONS: Proteinuria has a synergistic effect on dipstick hematuria-related decline in kidney function. Among the general population without proteinuria throughout the observational period, the "isolated hematuria"-related eGFR decline was statistically significant but the difference was small.

Risk Factors of Preterm Birth in Okinawa Prefecture, the Southernmost Island Prefecture of Japan.

OBJECTIVES: A high rate of preterm birth has been reported in Okinawa Prefecture, the southernmost island prefecture of Japan. Hence, this study aimed to identify the risk factors for preterm birth in this prefecture. METHODS: This retrospective study included data from January 2013 to December 2019 from three facilities in Okinawa Prefecture. Of 13,468 cases of preterm birth at ≥ 22 weeks of gestation, 11,868 were included in this study. Stillbirth and multiparity cases were excluded. First, we compared the overall preterm and full-term birth groups by categorizing the patient background, obstetric, and fetal risk factors. Further, we categorized preterm births into three groups (22-27, 28-33, and 34-36 weeks of gestation) and examined patient background factors to identify potential risk factors for the occurrence of preterm birth in each group. RESULTS: Preterm births accounted for 21.2% (2,521 cases) of all cases, with the rates of 2.6% (317 cases), 6.7% (800 cases), and 11.8% (1,404 cases) at 22-27, 28-33, and 34-36 weeks of gestation, respectively. To prevent preterm birth in Okinawa Prefecture, the present study specifically focused on patient background characteristics. In the multinomial logistic regression, the risk factors for preterm birth at 22-27 weeks of gestation were previous preterm birth (P < 0.0001) and lower age (P = 0.026); at 28-33 weeks of gestation, the risk factors were previous preterm birth (P < 0.0001) and history of cervical conization (P = 0.009); and at 34-36 weeks of gestation, only previous preterm birth (P < 0.0001) was a risk factor. CONCLUSIONS FOR PRACTICE: Previous preterm birth, younger age, and history of cervical conization were risk factors for Preterm birth in Okinawa. To reduce premature births in Okinawa Prefecture, it is important to pick up women with these risk factors and provide them with appropriate guidance and education on an ongoing basis.

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, Albuminuria, and Adverse Outcomes: An Individual-Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

Importance: Chronic kidney disease (low estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or albuminuria) affects approximately 14% of adults in the US. Objective: To evaluate associations of lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine combined with cystatin C, and more severe albuminuria with adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular outcomes, and other health outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-participant data meta-analysis of 27 503 140 individuals from 114 global cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine alone) and 720 736 individuals from 20 cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C) and 9 067 753 individuals from 114 cohorts (albuminuria) from 1980 to 2021. Exposures: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2021 equations for eGFR based on creatinine alone and eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C; and albuminuria estimated as urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR). Main Outcomes and Measures: The risk of kidney failure requiring replacement therapy, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, acute kidney injury, any hospitalization, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and peripheral artery disease. The analyses were performed within each cohort and summarized with random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine alone (mean age, 54 years [SD, 17 years]; 51% were women; mean follow-up time, 4.8 years [SD, 3.3 years]), the mean eGFR was 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 11 mg/g (IQR, 8-16 mg/g). Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C (mean age, 59 years [SD, 12 years]; 53% were women; mean follow-up time, 10.8 years [SD, 4.1 years]), the mean eGFR was 88 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 9 mg/g (IQR, 6-18 mg/g). Lower eGFR (whether based on creatinine alone or based on creatinine and cystatin C) and higher UACR were each significantly associated with higher risk for each of the 10 adverse outcomes, including those in the mildest categories of chronic kidney disease. For example, among people with a UACR less than 10 mg/g, an eGFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 based on creatinine alone was associated with significantly higher hospitalization rates compared with an eGFR of 90 to 104 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2-1.3]; 161 vs 79 events per 1000 person-years; excess absolute risk, 22 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 19-25 events per 1000 person-years]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective analysis of 114 cohorts, lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C, and more severe UACR were each associated with increased rates of 10 adverse outcomes, including adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular diseases, and hospitalizations.

Cost-effectiveness of mass screening for dipstick hematuria in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Dipstick urine tests are a simple and inexpensive method for detecting kidney and urological diseases, such as IgA nephropathy and bladder cancer. The nationwide mass screening program, Specific Health Checkup (SHC), started in Japan in 2008 and targeted all adults between 40 and 74 years of age. Dipstick urine tests for proteinuria and glucosuria are mandatory as part of the SHC, but dipstick urine tests for hematuria are not. However, the dipstick hematuria test is often administered simultaneously with these mandatory tests by some health insurers. Hematuria is common in Japanese general screening participants, particularly elderly women, and the necessity of mass screening using the dipstick hematuria test has been discussed. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of mass screening for dipstick hematuria tests in addition to the SHC. METHODS: Using a decision tree and Markov modeling, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis from a Japanese societal perspective. RESULTS: Compared with the current SHC, mass screening for dipstick hematuria tests, in addition to the SHC, costs less and gains more, which means cost-saving. Similar findings were observed in the sex-specific analysis. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that mandating the dipstick hematuria test could be justifiable as an efficient use of finite healthcare resources. The results have implications for mass screening programs not only in Japan but worldwide.

Behaviour modification intervention for patients with chronic kidney disease could provide a mid- to long-term reduction in public health care expenditure: budget impact analysis.

BACKGROUND: A recent cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) study evaluated the widespread diffusion of behaviour modification intervention for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Incorporating this behaviour modification intervention, comprising educational sessions on nutrition/lifestyle and support for regular patient visits, to the current CKD guideline-based practice was found to be cost-effective. This study aimed to examine the affordability of this efficient new practice under the hypothesis that the behaviour modification intervention would be initiated by general physicians (GPs). METHODS: A budget impact analysis was conducted by defining the target population as patients aged 40-74 years with stage-3-5 CKD based on the prevalence of definitive CKD in the Japanese general population. Costs expended by social insurers without discount were counted as budgets. We estimated the annual budget impact for 15 years by running our CEA model, assuming that it would be good for the span. RESULTS: We estimated the number of patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) to decrease by 4,496 in the fifteenth year of the new practice using our CEA model. Compared to that in the current practice, the budget impact as total additional expenditure of the new practice was estimated to be negative by the tenth year in the base case. CONCLUSIONS: The widespread diffusion of behaviour modification intervention would contain public health care expenditure over the mid-to-long term, resulting from a reduction in progression to ESKD. We suggest that providing sufficient economic incentives to GPs and strengthening recommendations in CKD guidelines would realise effective GP-initiated interventions.

Predictors of Survival in Chronic Hemodialysis Patients: A 10-Year Longitudinal Follow-Up Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Risk factors of mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients have not yet been sufficiently evaluated. In particular, chronological transits and interactions of the impact of risk factors have rarely been described. METHODS: This study is a post hoc analysis of the participants in the Olme-sartan Clinical Trial in Okinawan Patients under OKIDS (OCTOPUS) study conducted between June 2006 and June 2011. We additionally followed up on the prognosis of the participants until July 31, 2018. Standardized univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the influences of the participants' baseline characteristics on all-cause mortality. We also evaluated chronological changes in the impacts of risk factors, interactions among predictors, and the influence of missing values using sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Of the 469 original trial participants, 461 participants were evaluated. The median time of follow-up was 10.2 years. A total of 211 (45.8%) participants were deceased. The leading causes of death were infection (n = 72, 34.1%) and cardiovascular disease (n = 66, 31.3%). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that the impact of diabetes mellitus, history of coronary intervention, and hypoalbuminemia were significant risk factors for mortality during the whole follow-up period. During the early follow-up period (≤3 years), standardized univariate Cox regression analyses revealed that history of amputation (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.61, p < 0.001), lower dry weight, higher cardiothoracic ratio, and lower potassium levels were statistically significant risks. In those who survived for longer than 3 years, a history of stroke (HR = 1.73, p = 0.006), higher systolic blood pressure, lower serum sodium levels, and higher levels of hemoglobin, and serum phosphate were significant risks. We also observed a stable interaction between the impacts of serum phosphate and albumin on all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: In chronic hemodialysis patients, targets to improve the short-term prognosis and long-term prognosis are not equivalent. Hyperphosphatemia was a significant risk factor for the all-cause mortality among patients with normal serum albumin levels but not among patients with compromised albumin levels.

One-Year Change in Diastolic Blood Pressure and Aortic Disease-Related Mortality in a Japanese General Population Aged 50-75 Years.

BACKGROUND: Aortic diseases (ADs), including aortic dissection, aortic aneurysm, and aortic rupture, are fatal diseases with extremely high mortality rates. Hypertension has been reported to be associated with AD development; however, it remains unclear whether a 1-year change in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) is a risk factor for AD-related mortality in the general population.Methods and Results:This study used a nationwide database of 235,076 individuals (aged 50-75 years) who participated in the annual "Specific Health Check and Guidance in Japan" for 2 consecutive years between 2008 and 2010. There were 55 AD-related deaths during the follow-up period of 1,770 days. All subjects were divided into 4 groups based on the baseline DBP and change in DBP at 1 year: persistent high DBP, increasing DBP, decreasing DBP, and normal DBP. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that the persistent high DBP group had the greatest risk among the 4 groups. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis demonstrated that both DBP and 1-year change in DBP were significantly associated with AD-related deaths. The prediction capacity was significantly improved by the addition of 1-year change in DBP to confounding risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated for the first time that a 1-year change in DBP was associated with AD-related deaths in the general population. Monitoring changes in DBP are of critical importance in the primary prevention of AD-related deaths in apparently healthy subjects aged 50-75 years.

Estimating the prevalence of definitive chronic kidney disease in the Japanese general population.

BACKGROUND: Most data on chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence has been based on single measurements of renal function and proteinuria. The aim was to determine the prevalence of CKD diagnosed by chronic proteinuria and/or reduced eGFR in a recent year in Japan. METHODS: In the main study, using a population-based cohort in Japan, the overall prevalence of CKD, defined as persistent positive proteinuria and/or eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, was determined. Of 2,849,557 persons, 763,104 had data for eGFR and proteinuria in both 2014 and 2015. For estimating number of CKD cases in Japanese adults, a regional cohort data with age ranging 22-87 years (N = 22,037) was further applied to the analysis. RESULTS: Definitive CKD was present in 2.3-23.0% of men and 1.7-17.1% of women age from 40 to 74 years in the main cohort. The estimated prevalence of reduced eGFR and/or proteinuria in the baseline year alone was 15.7% in men and 13.6% in women; the prevalence of definitive CKD was 10.9% in men and 9.2% in women. The number of CKD cases based on a single-year test in Japanese adults over 20 years of age increased from 13.3 million to 14.8 million between 2005 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Recent changes in prevalence of CKD seem to be mainly caused by an increase in Japan's elderly population. Although past reports may lead to overdiagnosis of CKD by a single-year test, the estimated number of definitive CKD was 10.2 million in 2015.

The distribution of eGFR by age in a community-based healthy population: the Japan specific health checkups study (J-SHC study).

BACKGROUND: Renal function gradually declines with age. However, the association between changes in renal function and healthy aging has not been determined. This study examined the distribution of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values in healthy subjects by age using large-scale cross-sectional data of health check-up participants in Japan. METHODS: Among the 394,180 health check-up participants, 75,217 (19.1%) subjects without hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, obesity, proteinuria, smoking, past history of cardiovascular diseases, and renal failure/not undergoing dialysis were included in the healthy group. The distribution of eGFR values was determined at each age between 39 and 74 years. RESULTS: in healthy subjects, the mean (± 2 SD range) values of eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2) at ages 40, 50, 60, and 70 were 88.0 (55.4-121.7), 82.3 (51.2-113.3), 77.8 (48.1-107.6), and 72.9 (44.7-101.1), respectively. The difference in the mean eGFR by age was almost constant across all ages. In the linear regression analysis adjusted for sex, the regression coefficient of mean eGFR for a one-year increase in age was -0.46 mL/min/1.73 m2 in healthy subjects (P < 0.001). By sex, the distribution of eGFR and the 1-year change in eGFR showed similar results in both men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Renal function slowly declined with age in a healthy population; however, it was relatively preserved until the mid 70 s. This result suggests that a decline in renal function often observed in the elderly does not attribute to aging alone, and further examination might be required to clarify the cause of renal impairment.

Higher cardiovascular mortality in men with persistent dipstick hematuria.

BACKGROUND: We previously reported that dipstick hematuria (UH) was associated with higher all-cause mortality in men, but not in women. We extended the observation and examined the causes of death using repeated urinalysis in men. METHODS: Subjects were those who participated the Tokutei-Kenshin between 2008 to 2015 in seven districts. Using National database of death certificate, we identified those who might have died and confirmed further with the collaborations of the regional National Health Insurance agency and public health nurses. Dipstick results of 1 + and higher were defined as hematuria. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard analysis. We adjusted for age, body mass index, eGFR, proteinuria, comorbid condition (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and dyslipidemia), past history (stroke, heart disease, and kidney disease), and lifestyle (smoking, drinking, walking, and exercise). RESULTS: A total of 170,119 men were studied and 70,350 (41.4% of the total) were re-examined next year. The prevalence of UH (-/-), UH (-/+), UH (±), and UH (+ /+) was 77.2% (N = 54,298), 14.0% (N = 9,838), 1.4% (N = 1014) and 7.4% (N = 5,200), respectively. We identified 1,162 deaths (1.7% of the total of the re-examined). The adjusted HR (95% CI) was 1.49 (1.22-1.81) for all-cause mortality and 1.83 (1.23-2.71) for cardiovascular death compared to those with UH (-/-), respectively. However, that for cancer mortality risk was not significant: 1.23 (0.92-1.64). CONCLUSIONS: In men, persistent dipstick hematuria is a significantly risk factor of all-cause mortality, in particular cardiovascular death among general screening participants.

Weight loss reduces the incidence of dipstick proteinuria: a cohort study from the Japanese general population.

BACKGROUND: Though elimination of obesity is one of main therapeutic goal for lifestyle-related diseases, the impact of appropriate weight loss on reduction of the incidence of proteinuria in the general population is still unclear. METHODS: The study cohort was based on a general population of 9,33,490 from 40 to 74 years of age who had undergone annual specific health checkups. The subjects who were finally included were the 2,74,598 people for whom all the data necessary for this study were available. The incidence of proteinuria in this study was defined as negative proteinuria at the primary and secondary survey years, and newly developed proteinuria during subsequent follow-up years. RESULTS: Whereas people with rapidly decreased weight tended to have a high incidence of proteinuria in the underweight (BMI < 18.5 kg/m2) and normal weight (18.5-24.9 kg/m2) groups, the obese group (≥ 25.0 kg/m2) with rapidly decreased weight had a lower incidence compared to those with stable weight. In the obese population, a rapid decline of BMI (- 1 to - 5 kg/m2 per year) was associated with a reduced risk (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]; 0.89 [0.80-0.98], P = 0.02) of proteinuria. CONCLUSIONS: Weight reduction can lead to a risk reduction of 11% in the incidence of proteinuria in obese Japanese adults. This is the first study to report the effects of weight reduction on the early phase of chronic kidney disease in obesity relevant to the characteristics of the Japanese general population. The present findings might have a role in renal health promotion in Japan.

Comparison of annual eGFR decline among primary kidney diseases in patients with CKD G3b-5: results from a REACH-J CKD cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Disease-specific trajectories of renal function in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) are not well defined. Here, we compared these trajectories in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by CKD stages. METHODS: Patients with multiple eGFR measurements during the 5-year preregistration period of the REACH-J study were enrolled. Mean annual eGFR declines were calculated from linear mixed effect models with the adjustment variables of baseline CKD stage, age, sex and the current CKD stage and the level of proteinuria (CKDA1-3). RESULTS: Among 1,969 eligible patients with CKDG3b-5, the adjusted eGFR decline (ml/min/1.73 m2/year) was significantly faster in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) patients and polycystic kidney disease (PKD) patients than in patients with other kidney diseases (DKD, - 2.96 ± 0.13; PKD, - 2.82 ± 0.17; and others, - 1.95 ± 0.05, p < 0.01). The declines were faster with higher CKD stages. In DKD patients, the eGFR decline was significantly faster in CKDG5 than CKDG4 (- 4.10 ± 0.18 vs - 2.76 ± 0.20, p < 0.01), while these declines in PKD patients were similar. The eGFR declines in PKD patients were significantly faster than DKD patients in CKDG4 (- 2.92 ± 0.23 vs - 2.76 ± 0.20, p < 0.01) and in CKDA2 (- 3.36 ± 0.35 vs - 1.40 ± 0.26, p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Our study revealed the disease-specific annual eGFR declines by CKD stages and the level of proteinuria. Comparing to the other kidney diseases, the declines in PKD patients were getting faster from early stages of CKD. These results suggest the importance of CKD managements in PKD patients from the early stages.

Cost-Effectiveness of Behavior Modification Intervention for Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease in the FROM-J Study.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem. An advanced, or innovative, CKD care system of clinical practice collaboration among general physicians (GPs), nephrologists, and other healthcare workers achieved behavior modification in patients with Stage 3 CKD in the Frontier of Renal Outcome Modifications in Japan (FROM-J) study. This behavior modification intervention consisted of educational sessions on nutrition and lifestyle, as well as encouragement of patients' regular visits. The intervention contributed to slowing CKD progression. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the widespread diffusion of the behavior modification intervention proven effective by the FROM-J study. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was carried out to compare the behavior modification intervention with the current practice recommended by the latest CKD clinical guidelines for GPs. A Markov model with a societal perspective under Japan's health system was constructed. We assumed that the behavior modification intervention proven effective by the FROM-J study would be initiated by GPs for targeted patient cohorts-patients aged 40-74 years with Stage 3 CKD-as a part of the innovative CKD care system. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the behavior modification intervention compared with current guideline-based practice was calculated as 145,593 Japanese yen (¥; $1,324 United States dollars [$]) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). CONCLUSIONS: Using the suggested value of social willingness to pay for a one-QALY gain in Japan of ¥5 million (US$45,455) as the threshold to judge cost-effectiveness, the behavior modification intervention is cost-effective. Our results suggest that diffusing the behavior modification intervention proven effective by the FROM-J study could be justifiable as an efficient use of finite healthcare resources. GPs could be encouraged to initiate this intervention by revising the National Health Insurance fee schedule and strengthening clinical guidelines regarding behavior modification interventions.