ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The Multi-Omics for Mothers and Infants consortium aims to improve birth outcomes. Preterm birth is a major obstetrical complication globally and causes significant infant and childhood morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE: We analyzed placental samples (basal plate, placenta or chorionic villi, and the chorionic plate) collected by the 5 Multi-Omics for Mothers and Infants sites, namely The Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement Bangladesh, The Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement Pakistan, The Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement Tanzania, The Global Alliance to Prevent Prematurity and Stillbirth Bangladesh, and The Global Alliance to Prevent Prematurity and Stillbirth Zambia. The goal was to analyze the morphology and gene expression of samples collected from preterm and uncomplicated term births. STUDY DESIGN: The teams provided biopsies from 166 singleton preterm (<37 weeks' gestation) and 175 term (≥37 weeks' gestation) deliveries. The samples were fixed in formalin and paraffin embedded. Tissue sections from these samples were stained with hematoxylin and eosin and subjected to morphologic analyses. Other placental biopsies (n=35 preterm, 21 term) were flash frozen, which enabled RNA purification for bulk transcriptomics. RESULTS: The morphologic analyses revealed a surprisingly high rate of inflammation that involved the basal plate, placenta or chorionic villi, and the chorionic plate. The rate of inflammation in chorionic villus samples, likely attributable to chronic villitis, ranged from 25% (Pakistan site) to 60% (Zambia site) of cases. Leukocyte infiltration in this location vs in the basal plate or chorionic plate correlated with preterm birth. Our transcriptomic analyses identified 267 genes that were differentially expressed between placentas from preterm vs those from term births (123 upregulated, 144 downregulated). Mapping the differentially expressed genes onto single-cell RNA sequencing data from human placentas suggested that all the component cell types, either singly or in subsets, contributed to the observed dysregulation. Consistent with the histopathologic findings, gene ontology analyses highlighted the presence of leukocyte infiltration or activation and inflammatory responses in both the fetal and maternal compartments. CONCLUSION: The relationship between placental inflammation and preterm birth is appreciated in developed countries. In this study, we showed that this link also exists in developing geographies. In addition, among the participating sites, we found geographic- and population-based differences in placental inflammation and preterm birth, suggesting the importance of local factors.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are a significant cause of maternal mortality worldwide. The classification and treatment of hypertension in pregnancy remain debated. We aim to compare the effectiveness of the revised 2017 ACC/AHA blood pressure threshold in predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a secondary data analysis of the Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement (AMANHI) biorepository study, including 10,001 pregnant women from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Tanzania. Blood pressure was measured using validated devices at different antenatal care visits. The blood pressure readings were categorized as: normal blood pressure (systolic blood pressure (sBP) < 120 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure (dBP) < 80 mm Hg), elevated blood pressure (sBP 120-129 and dBP < 80), stage 1 hypertension (sBP 130-139 or dBP 80-89, or both), and stage 2 hypertension (sBP ≥ 140 or dBP ≥ 90, or both). We estimated risk ratios for stillbirths and preterm births, as well as diagnostic test properties of both the pre-existing JNC7 (≥ 140/90) and revised ACC/AHA (≥ 130/80) thresholds using normal blood pressure as reference group. RESULTS: From May 2014 to June 2018, blood pressure readings were available for 9,448 women (2,894 in Bangladesh, 2,303 in Pakistan, and 4,251 in Tanzania). We observed normal blood pressure in 70%, elevated blood pressure in 12.4%, stage 1 hypertension in 15.2%, and stage 2 hypertension in 2.5% of the pregnant women respectively. Out of these, 310 stillbirths and 9,109 live births were recorded, with 887 preterm births. Using the ACC/AHA criteria, the stage 1 hypertension cut-off revealed 15.3% additional hypertension diagnoses as compared to JNC7 criteria. ACC/AHA defined hypertension was significantly associated with stillbirths (RR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4, 2.3). The JNC 7 hypertension cut-off of ≥ 140/90 was significantly associated with a higher risk of preterm births (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2, 2.2) and stillbirths (RR 3.6, 95% CI 2.5, 5.3). Both criteria demonstrated low sensitivities (8.4 for JNC-7 and 28.1 for ACC/AHA) and positive predictive values (11.0 for JNC7 and 5.2 for ACC/AHA) in predicting adverse outcomes. CONCLUSION: The ACC/AHA criteria (≥ 130/80) identified additional cases of hypertension but had limited predictive accuracy for stillbirths and preterm births, highlighting the ongoing need for improved criteria in managing pregnancy-related hypertension.
Subject(s)
Hypertension, Pregnancy-Induced , Practice Guidelines as Topic , Premature Birth , Stillbirth , Humans , Female , Pregnancy , Premature Birth/epidemiology , Stillbirth/epidemiology , Adult , Hypertension, Pregnancy-Induced/diagnosis , Hypertension, Pregnancy-Induced/epidemiology , United States/epidemiology , Pakistan/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , American Heart Association , Bangladesh/epidemiology , Tanzania/epidemiology , Young Adult , Blood Pressure , Infant, Newborn , Asia, SouthernABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Hyperglycemia during pregnancy leads to adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Thus, strict monitoring of blood glucose levels is warranted. This study aims to determine the association of early to mid-pregnancy HbA1c levels with the development of pregnancy complications in women from three countries in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of the AMANHI (Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement) cohort, which enrolled 10,001 pregnant women between May 2014 and June 2018 across Sylhet-Bangladesh, Karachi-Pakistan, and Pemba Island-Tanzania. HbA1c assays were performed at enrollment (8 to < 20 gestational weeks), and epidemiological data were collected during 2-3 monthly household visits. The women were followed-up till the postpartum period to determine the pregnancy outcomes. Multivariable logistic regression models assessed the association between elevated HbA1c levels and adverse events while controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: A total of 9,510 pregnant women were included in the analysis. The mean HbA1c level at enrollment was found to be the highest in Bangladesh (5.31 ± 0.37), followed by Tanzania (5.22 ± 0.49) and then Pakistan (5.07 ± 0.58). We report 339 stillbirths and 9,039 live births. Among the live births were 892 preterm births, 892 deliveries via cesarean section, and 532 LGA babies. In the multivariate pooled analysis, maternal HbA1c levels of ≥ 6.5 were associated with increased risks of stillbirths (aRR = 6.3, 95% CI = 3.4,11.6); preterm births (aRR = 3.5, 95% CI = 1.8-6.7); and Large for Gestational Age (aRR = 5.5, 95% CI = 2.9-10.6). CONCLUSION: Maternal HbA1c level is an independent risk factor for predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes such as stillbirth, preterm birth, and LGA among women in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. These groups may benefit from early interventional strategies.
Subject(s)
Pregnancy Outcome , Premature Birth , Pregnancy , Female , Infant, Newborn , Humans , Pregnancy Outcome/epidemiology , Stillbirth/epidemiology , Premature Birth/epidemiology , Glycated Hemoglobin , Cesarean Section , Developing Countries , Bangladesh , Pakistan , TanzaniaABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Pakistan reports a significant burden of neonatal mortality, with infections as one of the major causes. We aim to assess the long-term impact of early infancy infections on neurodevelopmental outcomes during later childhood. METHODS: We conducted a prospective follow-up study of the cohort enrolled at the Karachi site of the Aetiology of Neonatal Infection in South Asia (ANISA) during 2019-2020. Children with a possible serious bacterial infection (based on the WHO IMCI algorithm) at early infancy were assessed for neurodevelopment at 6-9 years of age and compared with healthy controls. The Ten Questions (TQS) questionnaire, Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), and Parent's Evaluation of Developmental Stage Assessment Level (PEDS: DM-AL) neurodevelopmental assessment tools, were administered and scored by the research staff who were blinded to the child's exposure status. Generalized Structural Equation Modelling (GSEM) was employed to verify relationships and associations among developmental milestones, anthropometry, and sociodemographic variables. RESULTS: A total of 398 children (241 cases and 157 controls) completed neurodevelopmental and growth assessments. Cases had a significantly higher rate of abnormal TQS scores (54.5% vs. 35.0%, p-value 0.001), greater delays in motor milestones (21.2% vs. 12.1%, p-value 0.02), lower fine motor skills (78.4 ± 1.4 vs. 83.2 ± 1.5, p-value 0.02). The receptive language skills were well-developed in both groups. According to the logistic regression model, exposure to infection during the first 59 days of life was associated with delayed TQS milestones (ß = -0.6, 95% CI -1.2,-0.04), TQS hearing domain (ß = -0.3, 95% CI: -1.2 to 0.7), PEDS: DM-AL fine motor domain (ß = -1.3, 95% CI: -4.4 to 1.7), PEDS: DM-AL receptive language development (ß = -1.1, 95% CI: -3.7 to 1.4) and child anthropometric measurements such as weight and height (ß = -0.2, 95% CI: -0.4 to 0.01 and ß = -0.2, 95% CI: -0.4 to -0.01, respectively). Early pSBI exposure was positively associated with PEDS: DM-AL self-help domain (ß = 0.6, 95% CI: -1.2 to 2.4) and SDQ-P overall score (ß = 0.02, 95% CI: -0.3 to 0.3). CONCLUSION: Children exposed to PSBI during early infancy have higher rates of abnormal development, motor delays, and lower fine motor skills during later childhood in Pakistan. Socioeconomic challenges and limited healthcare access contribute to these challenges, highlighting the need for long-term follow-ups with integrated neurodevelopment assessments.
Subject(s)
Neurodevelopmental Disorders , Humans , Pakistan/epidemiology , Male , Prospective Studies , Female , Child , Infant , Follow-Up Studies , Infant, Newborn , Neurodevelopmental Disorders/etiology , Neurodevelopmental Disorders/epidemiology , Bacterial Infections/epidemiology , Child Development , Case-Control StudiesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends oral amoxicillin for patients who have pneumonia with tachypnea, yet trial data indicate that not using amoxicillin to treat this condition may be noninferior to using amoxicillin. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled noninferiority trial involving children at primary health care centers in low-income communities in Karachi, Pakistan. Children who were 2 to 59 months of age and who met WHO criteria for nonsevere pneumonia with tachypnea were randomly assigned to a 3-day course of a suspension of amoxicillin (the active control) of 50 mg per milliliter or matched volume of placebo (the test regimen), according to WHO weight bands (500 mg every 12 hours for a weight of 4 to <10 kg, 1000 mg every 12 hours for a weight of 10 to <14 kg, or 1500 mg every 12 hours for a weight of 14 to <20 kg). The primary outcome was treatment failure during the 3-day course of amoxicillin or placebo. The prespecified noninferiority margin was 1.75 percentage points. RESULTS: From November 9, 2014, through November 30, 2017, a total of 4002 children underwent randomization (1999 in the placebo group and 2003 in the amoxicillin group). In the per-protocol analysis, the incidence of treatment failure was 4.9% among placebo recipients (95 of 1927 children) and 2.6% among amoxicillin recipients (51 of 1929 children) (between-group difference, 2.3 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.9 to 3.7). Results were similar in the intention-to-treat analysis. The presence of fever and wheeze predicted treatment failure. The number needed to treat to prevent one treatment failure was 44 (95% CI, 31 to 80). One patient (<0.1%) in each group died. Relapse occurred in 40 children (2.2%) in the placebo group and in 58 children (3.1%) in the amoxicillin group. CONCLUSIONS: Among children younger than 5 years of age with nonsevere pneumonia, the frequency of treatment failure was higher in the placebo group than in the amoxicillin group, a difference that did not meet the noninferiority margin for placebo. (Funded by the Joint Global Health Trials Scheme [of the Department for International Development, Medical Research Council, and Wellcome] and others; RETAPP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02372461.).
Subject(s)
Amoxicillin/therapeutic use , Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use , Pneumonia/drug therapy , Administration, Oral , Amoxicillin/administration & dosage , Amoxicillin/adverse effects , Anti-Bacterial Agents/administration & dosage , Anti-Bacterial Agents/adverse effects , Child, Preschool , Double-Blind Method , Duration of Therapy , Female , Humans , Infant , Male , Pakistan , Placebos/therapeutic use , Pneumonia/physiopathology , Recurrence , Tachypnea , Treatment FailureABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Public health and clinical recommendations are established from systematic reviews and retrospective meta-analyses combining effect sizes, traditionally, from aggregate data and more recently, using individual participant data (IPD) of published studies. However, trials often have outcomes and other meta-data that are not defined and collected in a standardized way, making meta-analysis problematic. IPD meta-analysis can only partially fix the limitations of traditional, retrospective, aggregate meta-analysis; prospective meta-analysis further reduces the problems. METHODS: We developed an initiative including seven clinical intervention studies of balanced energy-protein (BEP) supplementation during pregnancy and/or lactation that are being conducted (or recently concluded) in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, India, Nepal, and Pakistan to test the effect of BEP on infant and maternal outcomes. These studies were commissioned after an expert consultation that designed recommendations for a BEP product for use among pregnant and lactating women in low- and middle-income countries. The initiative goal is to harmonize variables across studies to facilitate IPD meta-analyses on closely aligned data, commonly called prospective meta-analysis. Our objective here is to describe the process of harmonizing variable definitions and prioritizing research questions. A two-day workshop of investigators, content experts, and advisors was held in February 2020 and harmonization activities continued thereafter. Efforts included a range of activities from examining protocols and data collection plans to discussing best practices within field constraints. Prior to harmonization, there were many similar outcomes and variables across studies, such as newborn anthropometry, gestational age, and stillbirth, however, definitions and protocols differed. As well, some measurements were being conducted in several but not all studies, such as food insecurity. Through the harmonization process, we came to consensus on important shared variables, particularly outcomes, added new measurements, and improved protocols across studies. DISCUSSION: We have fostered extensive communication between investigators from different studies, and importantly, created a large set of harmonized variable definitions within a prospective meta-analysis framework. We expect this initiative will improve reporting within each study in addition to providing opportunities for a series of IPD meta-analyses.
Subject(s)
Dietary Supplements , Lactation , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Pregnancy , Data Collection , Prospective Studies , Retrospective StudiesABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Fellowship programs offer training in a subspecialty focusing on distinct and advanced clinical/academic skills. This advanced postgraduate training allows physicians, who desire a more specialized practice, to further develop clinical, academic, research, and leadership/administrative skills. The Aga Khan University (AKU) is one of the few institutes offering paediatric sub-specialty training in Pakistan. We aimed to evaluate the current Paediatric fellowship programs at AKU. METHODS: Process evaluation of six paediatric fellowship programs (cardiology, neurology, endocrinology, critical care medicine, neonatology, and infectious disease) was conducted from September 2020 to April 2021 by senior clinicians and medical educationists. Evidence was collected through document review (using existing postgraduate medical education program information form), observation of teaching and learning support, and focused group discussions/interviews with program faculty and fellows were conducted. A review of the evaluation report was done as part of this study. This study received an exemption from the ethical review committee. The quantitative data were analyzed using SPSS (22.0) while the reports of discussion with fellows and friends underwent content analysis. RESULTS: All fellowship programs met the criteria for having a robust competency-based fellowship curriculum as per the institutional and national guidelines. Formative assessment in the form of continuous evaluation was found to be integrated into all the fellowship programs, however, most of the programs were found to lack a summative assessment plan. Fellows in training and program faculty were satisfied with the opportunities for mentorship, teaching, and learning. Thematic analysis of the discussion reports with faculty and fellows revealed three key themes including, program aspects translating into strengthening the training, gaps in the training program in delivering the expectations, and making ways to reach par excellence. CONCLUSIONS: The process evaluation of paediatric fellowship programs provided an opportunity to holistically review the current strengths and quality of the training in individual programs along with the unmet needs of the trainees. This will help the program stakeholders to prioritize, align and allocate the resources to further enhance the quality of training and outcome of individual fellowship programs to ensure wider impacts at a regional, national, and international health system level.
Subject(s)
Curriculum , Fellowships and Scholarships , Humans , Child , Pakistan , Learning , Hospitals, UniversityABSTRACT
Objective: This study aims to assess the effectiveness of integrating simulation for teaching pediatric clinical examination skills to undergraduate, MBBS Year-IV medical students at The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan. Methods: In this mixed method study, the Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) scores of the students who were taught using simulation (batch 2017-2018) were compared with the batch of the academic year 2016 -2017 (taught via traditional methods). In order to explore the experiences of the intervention group, a questionnaire with four open-ended questions was administered at the end of the clerkship. Results: Students who were taught by simulation, scored significantly higher on the clinical skills stations in Objective Structured Clinical Examination, than in the pre-intervention group (p-value <0.01). The students quoted safety of the learning environment, opportunities for deliberate practice, debriefing and facilitation skills maximized quoted that their experience of learning through simulation, however, some challenges were identified for future improvement. Conclusion: The result of the study suggested simulation as a useful instructional strategy for teaching examination skills to students in their early years. The student gained confidence through deliberate practice and feedback without compromising patient safety, which translated into improved performance in the high-stakes OSCE examination at the end of the clerkship.
ABSTRACT
In low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), growth impairment is common; however, the trajectory of growth over the course of the first month has not been well characterised. To describe newborn growth trajectory and predictors of growth impairment, we assessed growth frequently over the first 30 days among infants born ≥2000 g in Guinea-Bissau, Nepal, Pakistan and Uganda. In this cohort of 741 infants, the mean birth weight was 3036 ± 424 g. For 721 (98%) infants, weight loss occurred for a median of 2 days (interquartile range, 1-4) following birth until weight nadir was reached 5.9 ± 4.3% below birth weight. At 30 days of age, the mean weight was 3934 ± 592 g. The prevalence of being underweight at 30 days ranged from 5% in Uganda to 31% in Pakistan. Of those underweight at 30 days of age, 56 (59%) had not been low birth weight (LBW), and 48 (50%) had reached weight nadir subsequent to 4 days of age. Male sex (relative risk [RR] 2.73 [1.58, 3.57]), LBW (RR 6.41 [4.67, 8.81]), maternal primiparity (1.74 [1.20, 2.51]) and reaching weight nadir subsequent to 4 days of age (RR 5.03 [3.46, 7.31]) were highly predictive of being underweight at 30 days of age. In this LMIC cohort, country of birth, male sex, LBW and maternal primiparity increased the risk of impaired growth, as did the modifiable factor of delayed initiation of growth. Interventions tailored to infants with modifiable risk factors could reduce the burden of growth impairment in LMIC.
Subject(s)
Thinness , Birth Weight , Female , Guinea-Bissau/epidemiology , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Nepal/epidemiology , Pakistan/epidemiology , Thinness/epidemiology , Uganda/epidemiologyABSTRACT
This was a cross sectional study, conducted at the Aga Khan University, Karachi, from December 2018 to December 2019, to determine the residents' performance as teachers and understand the difficulties they faced. Anonymous feedback was obtained from students (n=200) to rate the teaching skills of residents in the paediatric department. The residents (n=60) also filled out an anonymous survey to assess their teaching performance and barriers to teaching. Furthermore, the faculty rated the residents' teaching abilities on a 5-point scale. A total of 145 (98.7%) students considered teaching as an important role of the residents. Ten (40%) residents identified themselves as beginners in teaching. The main barriers were time limitation (n=19, 76%), critical patients (n=3, 12%) and lack of appropriate skills (n=3, 12%).
Subject(s)
Faculty, Medical , Internship and Residency , Child , Cross-Sectional Studies , Hospitals , Humans , Students , TeachingABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Maternal morbidity occurs several times more frequently than mortality, yet data on morbidity burden and its effect on maternal, foetal, and newborn outcomes are limited in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to generate prospective, reliable population-based data on the burden of major direct maternal morbidities in the antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal periods and its association with maternal, foetal, and neonatal death in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a prospective cohort study, conducted in 9 research sites in 8 countries of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. We conducted population-based surveillance of women of reproductive age (15 to 49 years) to identify pregnancies. Pregnant women who gave consent were include in the study and followed up to birth and 42 days postpartum from 2012 to 2015. We used standard operating procedures, data collection tools, and training to harmonise study implementation across sites. Three home visits during pregnancy and 2 home visits after birth were conducted to collect maternal morbidity information and maternal, foetal, and newborn outcomes. We measured blood pressure and proteinuria to define hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and woman's self-report to identify obstetric haemorrhage, pregnancy-related infection, and prolonged or obstructed labour. Enrolled women whose pregnancy lasted at least 28 weeks or those who died during pregnancy were included in the analysis. We used meta-analysis to combine site-specific estimates of burden, and regression analysis combining all data from all sites to examine associations between the maternal morbidities and adverse outcomes. Among approximately 735,000 women of reproductive age in the study population, and 133,238 pregnancies during the study period, only 1.6% refused consent. Of these, 114,927 pregnancies had morbidity data collected at least once in both antenatal and in postnatal period, and 114,050 of them were included in the analysis. Overall, 32.7% of included pregnancies had at least one major direct maternal morbidity; South Asia had almost double the burden compared to sub-Saharan Africa (43.9%, 95% CI 27.8% to 60.0% in South Asia; 23.7%, 95% CI 19.8% to 27.6% in sub-Saharan Africa). Antepartum haemorrhage was reported in 2.2% (95% CI 1.5% to 2.9%) pregnancies and severe postpartum in 1.7% (95% CI 1.2% to 2.2%) pregnancies. Preeclampsia or eclampsia was reported in 1.4% (95% CI 0.9% to 2.0%) pregnancies, and gestational hypertension alone was reported in 7.4% (95% CI 4.6% to 10.1%) pregnancies. Prolonged or obstructed labour was reported in about 11.1% (95% CI 5.4% to 16.8%) pregnancies. Clinical features of late third trimester antepartum infection were present in 9.1% (95% CI 5.6% to 12.6%) pregnancies and those of postpartum infection in 8.6% (95% CI 4.4% to 12.8%) pregnancies. There were 187 pregnancy-related deaths per 100,000 births, 27 stillbirths per 1,000 births, and 28 neonatal deaths per 1,000 live births with variation by country and region. Direct maternal morbidities were associated with each of these outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings imply that health programmes in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia must intensify their efforts to identify and treat maternal morbidities, which affected about one-third of all pregnancies and to prevent associated maternal and neonatal deaths and stillbirths. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is not a clinical trial.
Subject(s)
Infant Mortality , Maternal Mortality , Pregnancy Complications/mortality , Stillbirth/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology , Asia/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Complications/diagnosis , Pregnancy Outcome , Prospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Young AdultABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Babies born early and/or small for gestational age in Low and Middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute substantially to global neonatal and infant mortality. Tracking this metric is critical at a population level for informed policy, advocacy, resources allocation and program evaluation and at an individual level for targeted care. Early prenatal ultrasound examination is not available in these settings, gestational age (GA) is estimated using new-born assessment, last menstrual period (LMP) recalls and birth weight, which are unreliable. Algorithms in developed settings, using metabolic screen data, provided GA estimates within 1-2 weeks of ultrasonography-based GA. We sought to leverage machine learning algorithms to improve accuracy and applicability of this approach to LMICs settings. METHODS: This study uses data from AMANHI-ACT, a prospective pregnancy cohorts in Asia and Africa where early pregnancy ultrasonography estimated GA and birth weight are available and metabolite screening data in a subset of 1318 new-borns were also available. We utilized this opportunity to develop machine learning (ML) algorithms. Random Forest Regressor was used where data was randomly split into model-building and model-testing dataset. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate performance. Bootstrap procedures were used to estimate confidence intervals (CI) for RMSE and MAE. For pre-term birth identification ROC analysis with bootstrap and exact estimation of CI for area under curve (AUC) were performed. RESULTS: Overall model estimated GA had MAE of 5.2 days (95% CI 4.6-6.8), which was similar to performance in SGA, MAE 5.3 days (95% CI 4.6-6.2). GA was correctly estimated to within 1 week for 85.21% (95% CI 72.31-94.65). For preterm birth classification, AUC in ROC analysis was 98.1% (95% CI 96.0-99.0; p < 0.001). This model performed better than Iowa regression, AUC Difference 14.4% (95% CI 5-23.7; p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning algorithms and models applied to metabolomic gestational age dating offer a ladder of opportunity for providing accurate population-level gestational age estimates in LMICs settings. These findings also point to an opportunity for investigation of region-specific models, more focused feasible analyte models, and broad untargeted metabolome investigation.
Subject(s)
Algorithms , Gestational Age , Machine Learning , Neonatal Screening/methods , Premature Birth/epidemiology , Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology , Asia/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Developing Countries , Female , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Male , Metabolomics , Pregnancy , Prospective Studies , ROC Curve , Ultrasonography, PrenatalABSTRACT
á .
Subject(s)
Amoxicillin , Pneumonia , Anti-Bacterial Agents , Child , Humans , Medically Underserved AreaABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Benefits of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine programs have been linked to the vaccine's ability to disrupt nasopharyngeal carriage and transmission. The 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV10) was included in the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in Sindh, Pakistan in February 2013. This study was carried out immediately before PCV10 introduction to establish baseline pneumococcal carriage and prevalent serotypes in young children and to determine if carriage differed in urban and rural communities. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal specimens were collected from a random sample of children 3-11 and 12-59 months of age in an urban community (Karachi) and children 3-11 months of age in a rural community (Matiari). Samples were processed in a research laboratory in Karachi. Samples were transported in STGG media, enriched in Todd Hewitt broth, rabbit serum and yeast extract, cultured on 5% sheep blood agar, and serotyped using the CDC standardized sequential multiplex PCR assay. Serotypes were categorized into PCV10-type and non-vaccine types. RESULTS: We enrolled 670 children. Pneumococci were detected in 73.6% and 79.5 % of children in the infant group in Karachi and Matiari, respectively, and 78.2% of children 12 to 59 months of age in Karachi. In infants, 38.9% and 33.5% of those carrying pneumococci in Karachi and Matiari, respectively, had PCV10 types. In the older age group in Karachi, the proportion was 30.7%, not significantly different from infants. The most common serotypes were 6A, 23F, 19A, 6B and 19F. CONCLUSION: We found that about 3 of 4 children carried pneumococci, and this figure did not vary with age group or urban or rural residence. Planned annual surveys in the same communities will inform change in carriage of PCV10 serotype pneumococci after the introduction and uptake of PCV10 in these communities.
Subject(s)
Carrier State/epidemiology , Nasopharynx/microbiology , Pneumococcal Infections/epidemiology , Streptococcus pneumoniae/isolation & purification , Animals , Carrier State/immunology , Carrier State/microbiology , Child , Child, Preschool , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Immunization Programs , Infant , Male , Nasopharynx/immunology , Pakistan/epidemiology , Pneumococcal Infections/prevention & control , Pneumococcal Vaccines/therapeutic use , Prevalence , Rabbits , Rural Population/statistics & numerical data , Streptococcus pneumoniae/immunology , Urban Population/statistics & numerical dataABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To estimate neonatal mortality, particularly within 24 hours of birth, in six low- and lower-middle-income countries. METHODS: We analysed epidemiological data on a total of 149 570 live births collected between 2007 and 2013 in six prospective randomized trials and a cohort study from predominantly rural areas of Bangladesh, Ghana, India, Pakistan, the United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia. The neonatal mortality rate and mortality within 24 hours of birth were estimated for all countries and mortality within 6 hours was estimated for four countries with available data. The findings were compared with published model-based estimates of neonatal mortality. FINDINGS: Overall, the neonatal mortality rate observed at study sites in the six countries was 30.5 per 1000 live births (range: 13.6 in Zambia to 47.4 in Pakistan). Mortality within 24 hours was 14.1 per 1000 live births overall (range: 5.1 in Zambia to 20.1 in India) and 46.3% of all neonatal deaths occurred within 24 hours (range: 36.2% in Pakistan to 65.5% in the United Republic of Tanzania). Mortality in the first 6 hours was 8.3 per 1000 live births, i.e. 31.9% of neonatal mortality. CONCLUSION: Neonatal mortality within 24 hours of birth in predominantly rural areas of six low- and lower-middle-income countries was higher than model-based estimates for these countries. A little under half of all neonatal deaths occurred within 24 hours of birth and around one third occurred within 6 hours. Implementation of high-quality, effective obstetric and early newborn care should be a priority in these settings.
Subject(s)
Developing Countries , Infant Mortality , Parturition , Cohort Studies , Databases, Factual , Epidemiologic Studies , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic , Rural Population , Time FactorsABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Fast breathing pneumonia is characterized by tachypnoea in the absence of danger signs and is mostly viral in etiology. Current guidelines recommend antibiotic therapy for all children with fast breathing pneumonia in resource limited settings, presuming that most pneumonia is bacterial. High quality clinical trial evidence to challenge or support the continued use of antibiotics, as recommended by the World Health Organization is lacking. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a randomized double blinded placebo-controlled non-inferiority trial using parallel assignment with 1:1 allocation ratio, to be conducted in low income squatter settlements of urban Karachi, Pakistan. Children 2-59 months old with fast breathing, without any WHO-defined danger signs and seeking care at the primary health care center are randomized to receive either three days of placebo or amoxicillin. From prior studies, a sample size of 2430 children is required over a period of 28 months. Primary outcome is the difference in cumulative treatment failure between the two groups, defined as a new clinical sign based on preset definitions indicating illness progression or mortality and confirmed by two independent primary health care physicians on day 0, 1, 2 or 3 of therapy. Secondary outcomes include relapse measured between days 5-14. Modified per protocol analysis comparing hazards of treatment failure with 95% confidence intervals in the placebo arm with hazards in the amoxicillin arm will be done. DISCUSSION: This study will provide evidence to support or refute the use of antibiotics for fast breathing pneumonia paving a way for guideline change. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials (NIH) Register NCT02372461.
Subject(s)
Amoxicillin/administration & dosage , Anti-Bacterial Agents/administration & dosage , Pneumonia/drug therapy , Child, Preschool , Double-Blind Method , Female , Humans , Infant , Male , Pakistan , World Health OrganizationABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To assess the needs related to prenatal genetic counselling in a developing country. METHODS: The prospective observational study was conducted at the Prenatal-Genetic Counselling Clinic of Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, from October 2007 to September 2010. In-depth interviews were conducted and the data was stored in the form of patient charts. Information was then extracted from the charts and entered into a structured questionnaire. RESULTS: Of the 93 couples in the study, 49 (53%) were in the self-referral group and 44 (47%) were in the physician- referral group. Diagnosis was not given for previously affected children by the paediatrician or by obstetrician for recurrent miscarriages in 68 (73%)cases. Besides, 20 (22%) couples had voluntarily terminated a pregnancy without any tests because of the fear of having a diseased child. Eleven (12%) couples were looking for amniocentensis or chorionic villus sampling. Death in previous children was the main reason to seek genetic counselling and was seen in 57 (61%) couples. Consanguinity was seen in 77 (83%) couples. CONCLUSION: A clear deficiency of knowledge of genetics was seen among the non-genetic healthcare providers. Demand of antenatal genetic testing among the public was also seen, highlighting the need of diagnostic facility for genetic and metabolic disorders. However, this needs to be explored in the context of the existing healthcare infrastructure.
Subject(s)
Genetic Counseling/statistics & numerical data , Patient Acceptance of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , Prenatal Diagnosis/statistics & numerical data , Consanguinity , Developing Countries/statistics & numerical data , Female , Genetic Diseases, Inborn/diagnosis , Genetic Diseases, Inborn/genetics , Humans , Male , Pakistan/epidemiology , Parents , Pregnancy , Prospective StudiesABSTRACT
Declining herd immunity and severe manifestation of vaccine preventable infections underscores the need for vaccinations campaigns to urgently vaccinate children who missed their routine immunizations.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Neoplasms , Child , Humans , COVID-19/prevention & control , Pandemics/prevention & control , Immunization , VaccinationABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children < 5 years. We describe nasopharyngeal carriage of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV), and influenza virus among children with fast-breathing pneumonia in Karachi, Pakistan. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of nasopharyngeal swabs from children aged 2-59 months with fast-breathing pneumonia, enrolled in the randomized trial of amoxicillin versus placebo for fast-breathing pneumonia (RETAPP) (NCT02372461) from 2014 to 2016. Swabs were collected using WHO standardized methods, processed at the Aga Khan University, Pakistan. Viral detection was performed using LUMINEX xTAG respiratory viral panel assay and logistic regression identified clinical and sociodemographic predictors. FINDINGS: Of the 1000 children tested, 92.2% (n = 922) were positive for viral carriage. RSV, hMPV, and influenza virus were detected in 59 (6.4%), 56 (6.1%), and 58 (6.3%) children and co-infections in three samples (two RSV-hMPV and one influenza-hMPV). RSV carriage was common in infants (56%), we observed a higher occurrence of fever in children with hMPV and influenza virus (80% and 88%, respectively) and fast breathing in RSV (80%) carriage. RSV carriage was positively associated with a history of fast/difficulty breathing (aOR: 1.96, 95% CI 1.02-3.76) and low oxygen saturation (aOR: 2.52, 95% CI 1.32-4.82), hMPV carriage was positively associated with a complete vaccination status (aOR: 2.22, 95% CI 1.23-4.00) and body temperature ≥ 37.5°C (aOR: 2.34, 95% CI 1.35-4.04) whereas influenza viral carriage was associated with body temperature ≥ 37.5°C (aOR: 4.48, 95% CI 2.53-7.93). CONCLUSION: We observed a high nasopharyngeal viral carriage among children with WHO-defined fast-breathing pneumonia in Pakistan. Fever, difficulty in breathing, hypoxia and vaccination status are important clinical predictors for viral nonsevere community-acquired pneumonia.