Genetic variants regulating immune cell levels in health and disease.

The complex network of specialized cells and molecules in the immune system has evolved to defend against pathogens, but inadvertent immune system attacks on "self" result in autoimmune disease. Both genetic regulation of immune cell levels and their relationships with autoimmunity are largely undetermined. Here, we report genetic contributions to quantitative levels of 95 cell types encompassing 272 immune traits, in a cohort of 1,629 individuals from four clustered Sardinian villages. We first estimated trait heritability, showing that it can be substantial, accounting for up to 87% of the variance (mean 41%). Next, by assessing ∼8.2 million variants that we identified and confirmed in an extended set of 2,870 individuals, 23 independent variants at 13 loci associated with at least one trait. Notably, variants at three loci (HLA, IL2RA, and SH2B3/ATXN2) overlap with known autoimmune disease associations. These results connect specific cellular phenotypes to specific genetic variants, helping to explicate their involvement in disease.

Common and rare variant associations with clonal haematopoiesis phenotypes.

Clonal haematopoiesis involves the expansion of certain blood cell lineages and has been associated with ageing and adverse health outcomes1-5. Here we use exome sequence data on 628,388 individuals to identify 40,208 carriers of clonal haematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP). Using genome-wide and exome-wide association analyses, we identify 24 loci (21 of which are novel) where germline genetic variation influences predisposition to CHIP, including missense variants in the lymphocytic antigen coding gene LY75, which are associated with reduced incidence of CHIP. We also identify novel rare variant associations with clonal haematopoiesis and telomere length. Analysis of 5,041 health traits from the UK Biobank (UKB) found relationships between CHIP and severe COVID-19 outcomes, cardiovascular disease, haematologic traits, malignancy, smoking, obesity, infection and all-cause mortality. Longitudinal and Mendelian randomization analyses revealed that CHIP is associated with solid cancers, including non-melanoma skin cancer and lung cancer, and that CHIP linked to DNMT3A is associated with the subsequent development of myeloid but not lymphoid leukaemias. Additionally, contrary to previous findings from the initial 50,000 UKB exomes6, our results in the full sample do not support a role for IL-6 inhibition in reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease among CHIP carriers. Our findings demonstrate that CHIP represents a complex set of heterogeneous phenotypes with shared and unique germline genetic causes and varied clinical implications.

Exome sequencing and analysis of 454,787 UK Biobank participants.

A major goal in human genetics is to use natural variation to understand the phenotypic consequences of altering each protein-coding gene in the genome. Here we used exome sequencing1 to explore protein-altering variants and their consequences in 454,787 participants in the UK Biobank study2. We identified 12 million coding variants, including around 1 million loss-of-function and around 1.8 million deleterious missense variants. When these were tested for association with 3,994 health-related traits, we found 564 genes with trait associations at P ≤ 2.18 × 10-11. Rare variant associations were enriched in loci from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), but most (91%) were independent of common variant signals. We discovered several risk-increasing associations with traits related to liver disease, eye disease and cancer, among others, as well as risk-lowering associations for hypertension (SLC9A3R2), diabetes (MAP3K15, FAM234A) and asthma (SLC27A3). Six genes were associated with brain imaging phenotypes, including two involved in neural development (GBE1, PLD1). Of the signals available and powered for replication in an independent cohort, 81% were confirmed; furthermore, association signals were generally consistent across individuals of European, Asian and African ancestry. We illustrate the ability of exome sequencing to identify gene-trait associations, elucidate gene function and pinpoint effector genes that underlie GWAS signals at scale.

Germline Mutations in CIDEB and Protection against Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND: Exome sequencing in hundreds of thousands of persons may enable the identification of rare protein-coding genetic variants associated with protection from human diseases like liver cirrhosis, providing a strategy for the discovery of new therapeutic targets. METHODS: We performed a multistage exome sequencing and genetic association analysis to identify genes in which rare protein-coding variants were associated with liver phenotypes. We conducted in vitro experiments to further characterize associations. RESULTS: The multistage analysis involved 542,904 persons with available data on liver aminotransferase levels, 24,944 patients with various types of liver disease, and 490,636 controls without liver disease. We found that rare coding variants in APOB, ABCB4, SLC30A10, and TM6SF2 were associated with increased aminotransferase levels and an increased risk of liver disease. We also found that variants in CIDEB, which encodes a structural protein found in hepatic lipid droplets, had a protective effect. The burden of rare predicted loss-of-function variants plus missense variants in CIDEB (combined carrier frequency, 0.7%) was associated with decreased alanine aminotransferase levels (beta per allele, -1.24 U per liter; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.66 to -0.83; P = 4.8×10-9) and with 33% lower odds of liver disease of any cause (odds ratio per allele, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.57 to 0.79; P = 9.9×10-7). Rare coding variants in CIDEB were associated with a decreased risk of liver disease across different underlying causes and different degrees of severity, including cirrhosis of any cause (odds ratio per allele, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.70). Among 3599 patients who had undergone bariatric surgery, rare coding variants in CIDEB were associated with a decreased nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score (beta per allele in score units, -0.98; 95% CI, -1.54 to -0.41 [scores range from 0 to 8, with higher scores indicating more severe disease]). In human hepatoma cell lines challenged with oleate, CIDEB small interfering RNA knockdown prevented the buildup of large lipid droplets. CONCLUSIONS: Rare germline mutations in CIDEB conferred substantial protection from liver disease. (Funded by Regeneron Pharmaceuticals.).

Pan-ancestry exome-wide association analyses of COVID-19 outcomes in 586,157 individuals.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a respiratory illness that can result in hospitalization or death. We used exome sequence data to investigate associations between rare genetic variants and seven COVID-19 outcomes in 586,157 individuals, including 20,952 with COVID-19. After accounting for multiple testing, we did not identify any clear associations with rare variants either exome wide or when specifically focusing on (1) 13 interferon pathway genes in which rare deleterious variants have been reported in individuals with severe COVID-19, (2) 281 genes located in susceptibility loci identified by the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative, or (3) 32 additional genes of immunologic relevance and/or therapeutic potential. Our analyses indicate there are no significant associations with rare protein-coding variants with detectable effect sizes at our current sample sizes. Analyses will be updated as additional data become available, and results are publicly available through the Regeneron Genetics Center COVID-19 Results Browser.

Correlations between H2 Permeation and Physical/Mechanical Properties in Ethylene Propylene Diene Monomer Polymers Blended with Carbon Black and Silica Fillers.

H2 permeation in peroxide-crosslinked EPDM blended with carbon black (CB) and silica fillers was studied at pressures ranging from 1.2 MPa to 90 MPa via the volumetric analysis technique. H2 uptake in the CB-filled EPDM revealed dual-sorption behaviors via Henry's law and the Langmuir model, which were attributed to H2 absorption by the polymer chains and H2 adsorption at the filler interfaces, respectively. Additionally, single-sorption mechanisms were observed for neat EPDM and silica-blended EPDM according to Henry's law, indicating H2 absorption by the polymer chain. The linear decreases in the diffusivity with filler content for the silica-blended EPDMs were attributed to increases in the diffusion paths caused by the filler. Exponential decreases in the diffusivity with increasing filler content and in the permeation with the physical/mechanical properties for CB-filled EPDMs were caused by decreases in the fractional free volume due to increased densities for the EPDM composites. Moreover, good filler-dependent correlations between permeability and density, hardness, and tensile strength were demonstrated for EPDMs used as sealing materials for O-rings. From the resulting equation, we predicted the permeation value without further measurements. Thus, we can select EPDM candidates satisfying the permeation guidelines used in hydrogen infrastructure for the future hydrogen economy.

Genome-wide Study of Atrial Fibrillation Identifies Seven Risk Loci and Highlights Biological Pathways and Regulatory Elements Involved in Cardiac Development.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia and a major risk factor for stroke, heart failure, and premature death. The pathogenesis of AF remains poorly understood, which contributes to the current lack of highly effective treatments. To understand the genetic variation and biology underlying AF, we undertook a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 6,337 AF individuals and 61,607 AF-free individuals from Norway, including replication in an additional 30,679 AF individuals and 278,895 AF-free individuals. Through genotyping and dense imputation mapping from whole-genome sequencing, we tested almost nine million genetic variants across the genome and identified seven risk loci, including two novel loci. One novel locus (lead single-nucleotide variant [SNV] rs12614435; p = 6.76 × 10-18) comprised intronic and several highly correlated missense variants situated in the I-, A-, and M-bands of titin, which is the largest protein in humans and responsible for the passive elasticity of heart and skeletal muscle. The other novel locus (lead SNV rs56202902; p = 1.54 × 10-11) covered a large, gene-dense chromosome 1 region that has previously been linked to cardiac conduction. Pathway and functional enrichment analyses suggested that many AF-associated genetic variants act through a mechanism of impaired muscle cell differentiation and tissue formation during fetal heart development.

Whole-Genome Sequencing Identifies Novel Functional Loci Associated with Lung Function in Puerto Rican Youth.

Rationale: Puerto Ricans have the highest childhood asthma prevalence in the United States (23.6%); however, the etiology is uncertain.Objectives: In this study, we sought to uncover the genetic architecture of lung function in Puerto Rican youth with and without asthma who were recruited from the island (n = 836).Methods: We used admixture-mapping and whole-genome sequencing data to discover genomic regions associated with lung function. Functional roles of the prioritized candidate SNPs were examined with chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing, RNA sequencing, and expression quantitative trait loci data.Measurements and Main Results: We discovered a genomic region at 1q32 that was significantly associated with a 0.12-L decrease in the lung volume of exhaled air (95% confidence interval, -0.17 to -0.07; P = 6.62 × 10-8) with each allele of African ancestry. Within this region, two SNPs were expression quantitative trait loci of TMEM9 in nasal airway epithelial cells and MROH3P in esophagus mucosa. The minor alleles of these SNPs were associated with significantly decreased lung function and decreased TMEM9 gene expression. Another admixture-mapping peak was observed on chromosome 5q35.1, indicating that each Native American ancestry allele was associated with a 0.15-L increase in lung function (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.21; P = 5.03 × 10-6). The region-based association tests identified four suggestive windows that harbored candidate rare variants associated with lung function.Conclusions: We identified common and rare genetic variants that may play a critical role in lung function among Puerto Rican youth. We independently validated an inflammatory pathway that could potentially be used to develop more targeted treatments and interventions for patients with asthma.

Common α-globin variants modify hematologic and other clinical phenotypes in sickle cell trait and disease.

Co-inheritance of α-thalassemia has a significant protective effect on the severity of complications of sickle cell disease (SCD), including stroke. However, little information exists on the association and interactions for the common African ancestral α-thalassemia mutation (-α3.7 deletion) and ß-globin traits (HbS trait [SCT] and HbC trait) on important clinical phenotypes such as red blood cell parameters, anemia, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). In a community-based cohort of 2,916 African Americans from the Jackson Heart Study, we confirmed the expected associations between SCT, HbC trait, and the -α3.7 deletion with lower mean corpuscular volume/mean corpuscular hemoglobin and higher red blood cell count and red cell distribution width. In addition to the recently recognized association of SCT with lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), we observed a novel association of the -α3.7 deletion with higher HbA1c levels. Co-inheritance of each additional copy of the -α3.7 deletion significantly lowered the risk of anemia and chronic kidney disease among individuals with SCT (P-interaction = 0.031 and 0.019, respectively). Furthermore, co-inheritance of a novel α-globin regulatory variant was associated with normalization of red cell parameters in individuals with the -α3.7 deletion and significantly negated the protective effect of α-thalassemia on stroke in 1,139 patients with sickle cell anemia from the Cooperative Study of Sickle Cell Disease (CSSCD) (P-interaction = 0.0049). Functional assays determined that rs11865131, located in the major alpha-globin enhancer MCS-R2, was the most likely causal variant. These findings suggest that common α- and ß-globin variants interact to influence hematologic and clinical phenotypes in African Americans, with potential implications for risk-stratification and counseling of individuals with SCD and SCT.

Genome-Wide Association Study of Diabetic Kidney Disease Highlights Biology Involved in Glomerular Basement Membrane Collagen.

BACKGROUND: Although diabetic kidney disease demonstrates both familial clustering and single nucleotide polymorphism heritability, the specific genetic factors influencing risk remain largely unknown. METHODS: To identify genetic variants predisposing to diabetic kidney disease, we performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) analyses. Through collaboration with the Diabetes Nephropathy Collaborative Research Initiative, we assembled a large collection of type 1 diabetes cohorts with harmonized diabetic kidney disease phenotypes. We used a spectrum of ten diabetic kidney disease definitions based on albuminuria and renal function. RESULTS: Our GWAS meta-analysis included association results for up to 19,406 individuals of European descent with type 1 diabetes. We identified 16 genome-wide significant risk loci. The variant with the strongest association (rs55703767) is a common missense mutation in the collagen type IV alpha 3 chain (COL4A3) gene, which encodes a major structural component of the glomerular basement membrane (GBM). Mutations in COL4A3 are implicated in heritable nephropathies, including the progressive inherited nephropathy Alport syndrome. The rs55703767 minor allele (Asp326Tyr) is protective against several definitions of diabetic kidney disease, including albuminuria and ESKD, and demonstrated a significant association with GBM width; protective allele carriers had thinner GBM before any signs of kidney disease, and its effect was dependent on glycemia. Three other loci are in or near genes with known or suggestive involvement in this condition (BMP7) or renal biology (COLEC11 and DDR1). CONCLUSIONS: The 16 diabetic kidney disease-associated loci may provide novel insights into the pathogenesis of this condition and help identify potential biologic targets for prevention and treatment.

Comparing variant calling algorithms for target-exon sequencing in a large sample.

BACKGROUND: Sequencing studies of exonic regions aim to identify rare variants contributing to complex traits. With high coverage and large sample size, these studies tend to apply simple variant calling algorithms. However, coverage is often heterogeneous; sites with insufficient coverage may benefit from sophisticated calling algorithms used in low-coverage sequencing studies. We evaluate the potential benefits of different calling strategies by performing a comparative analysis of variant calling methods on exonic data from 202 genes sequenced at 24x in 7,842 individuals. We call variants using individual-based, population-based and linkage disequilibrium (LD)-aware methods with stringent quality control. We measure genotype accuracy by the concordance with on-target GWAS genotypes and between 80 pairs of sequencing replicates. We validate selected singleton variants using capillary sequencing. RESULTS: Using these calling methods, we detected over 27,500 variants at the targeted exons; >57% were singletons. The singletons identified by individual-based analyses were of the highest quality. However, individual-based analyses generated more missing genotypes (4.72%) than population-based (0.47%) and LD-aware (0.17%) analyses. Moreover, individual-based genotypes were the least concordant with array-based genotypes and replicates. Population-based genotypes were less concordant than genotypes from LD-aware analyses with extended haplotypes. We reanalyzed the same dataset with a second set of callers and showed again that the individual-based caller identified more high-quality singletons than the population-based caller. We also replicated this result in a second dataset of 57 genes sequenced at 127.5x in 3,124 individuals. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend population-based analyses for high quality variant calls with few missing genotypes. With extended haplotypes, LD-aware methods generate the most accurate and complete genotypes. In addition, individual-based analyses should complement the above methods to obtain the most singleton variants.

Systems genetic analysis of osteoblast-lineage cells.

The osteoblast-lineage consists of cells at various stages of maturation that are essential for skeletal development, growth, and maintenance. Over the past decade, many of the signaling cascades that regulate this lineage have been elucidated; however, little is known of the networks that coordinate, modulate, and transmit these signals. Here, we identify a gene network specific to the osteoblast-lineage through the reconstruction of a bone co-expression network using microarray profiles collected on 96 Hybrid Mouse Diversity Panel (HMDP) inbred strains. Of the 21 modules that comprised the bone network, module 9 (M9) contained genes that were highly correlated with prototypical osteoblast maker genes and were more highly expressed in osteoblasts relative to other bone cells. In addition, the M9 contained many of the key genes that define the osteoblast-lineage, which together suggested that it was specific to this lineage. To use the M9 to identify novel osteoblast genes and highlight its biological relevance, we knocked-down the expression of its two most connected "hub" genes, Maged1 and Pard6g. Their perturbation altered both osteoblast proliferation and differentiation. Furthermore, we demonstrated the mice deficient in Maged1 had decreased bone mineral density (BMD). It was also discovered that a local expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) regulating the Wnt signaling antagonist Sfrp1 was a key driver of the M9. We also show that the M9 is associated with BMD in the HMDP and is enriched for genes implicated in the regulation of human BMD through genome-wide association studies. In conclusion, we have identified a physiologically relevant gene network and used it to discover novel genes and regulatory mechanisms involved in the function of osteoblast-lineage cells. Our results highlight the power of harnessing natural genetic variation to generate co-expression networks that can be used to gain insight into the function of specific cell-types.

A likelihood-based framework for variant calling and de novo mutation detection in families.

Family samples, which can be enriched for rare causal variants by focusing on families with multiple extreme individuals and which facilitate detection of de novo mutation events, provide an attractive resource for next-generation sequencing studies. Here, we describe, implement, and evaluate a likelihood-based framework for analysis of next generation sequence data in family samples. Our framework is able to identify variant sites accurately and to assign individual genotypes, and can handle de novo mutation events, increasing the sensitivity and specificity of variant calling and de novo mutation detection. Through simulations we show explicit modeling of family relationships is especially useful for analyses of low-frequency variants and that genotype accuracy increases with the number of individuals sequenced per family. Compared with the standard approach of ignoring relatedness, our methods identify and accurately genotype more variants, and have high specificity for detecting de novo mutation events. The improvement in accuracy using our methods over the standard approach is particularly pronounced for low-frequency variants. Furthermore the family-aware calling framework dramatically reduces Mendelian inconsistencies and is beneficial for family-based analysis. We hope our framework and software will facilitate continuing efforts to identify genetic factors underlying human diseases.

Comparative analysis of proteome and transcriptome variation in mouse.

The relationships between the levels of transcripts and the levels of the proteins they encode have not been examined comprehensively in mammals, although previous work in plants and yeast suggest a surprisingly modest correlation. We have examined this issue using a genetic approach in which natural variations were used to perturb both transcript levels and protein levels among inbred strains of mice. We quantified over 5,000 peptides and over 22,000 transcripts in livers of 97 inbred and recombinant inbred strains and focused on the 7,185 most heritable transcripts and 486 most reliable proteins. The transcript levels were quantified by microarray analysis in three replicates and the proteins were quantified by Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry using O(18)-reference-based isotope labeling approach. We show that the levels of transcripts and proteins correlate significantly for only about half of the genes tested, with an average correlation of 0.27, and the correlations of transcripts and proteins varied depending on the cellular location and biological function of the gene. We examined technical and biological factors that could contribute to the modest correlation. For example, differential splicing clearly affects the analyses for certain genes; but, based on deep sequencing, this does not substantially contribute to the overall estimate of the correlation. We also employed genome-wide association analyses to map loci controlling both transcript and protein levels. Surprisingly, little overlap was observed between the protein- and transcript-mapped loci. We have typed numerous clinically relevant traits among the strains, including adiposity, lipoprotein levels, and tissue parameters. Using correlation analysis, we found that a low number of clinical trait relationships are preserved between the protein and mRNA gene products and that the majority of such relationships are specific to either the protein levels or transcript levels. Surprisingly, transcript levels were more strongly correlated with clinical traits than protein levels. In light of the widespread use of high-throughput technologies in both clinical and basic research, the results presented have practical as well as basic implications.

Fine mapping of five loci associated with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol detects variants that double the explained heritability.

Complex trait genome-wide association studies (GWAS) provide an efficient strategy for evaluating large numbers of common variants in large numbers of individuals and for identifying trait-associated variants. Nevertheless, GWAS often leave much of the trait heritability unexplained. We hypothesized that some of this unexplained heritability might be due to common and rare variants that reside in GWAS identified loci but lack appropriate proxies in modern genotyping arrays. To assess this hypothesis, we re-examined 7 genes (APOE, APOC1, APOC2, SORT1, LDLR, APOB, and PCSK9) in 5 loci associated with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in multiple GWAS. For each gene, we first catalogued genetic variation by re-sequencing 256 Sardinian individuals with extreme LDL-C values. Next, we genotyped variants identified by us and by the 1000 Genomes Project (totaling 3,277 SNPs) in 5,524 volunteers. We found that in one locus (PCSK9) the GWAS signal could be explained by a previously described low-frequency variant and that in three loci (PCSK9, APOE, and LDLR) there were additional variants independently associated with LDL-C, including a novel and rare LDLR variant that seems specific to Sardinians. Overall, this more detailed assessment of SNP variation in these loci increased estimates of the heritability of LDL-C accounted for by these genes from 3.1% to 6.5%. All association signals and the heritability estimates were successfully confirmed in a sample of ∼10,000 Finnish and Norwegian individuals. Our results thus suggest that focusing on variants accessible via GWAS can lead to clear underestimates of the trait heritability explained by a set of loci. Further, our results suggest that, as prelude to large-scale sequencing efforts, targeted re-sequencing efforts paired with large-scale genotyping will increase estimates of complex trait heritability explained by known loci.

Rare coding variants in CHRNB2 reduce the likelihood of smoking.

Human genetic studies of smoking behavior have been thus far largely limited to common variants. Studying rare coding variants has the potential to identify drug targets. We performed an exome-wide association study of smoking phenotypes in up to 749,459 individuals and discovered a protective association in CHRNB2, encoding the ß2 subunit of the α4ß2 nicotine acetylcholine receptor. Rare predicted loss-of-function and likely deleterious missense variants in CHRNB2 in aggregate were associated with a 35% decreased odds for smoking heavily (odds ratio (OR) = 0.65, confidence interval (CI) = 0.56-0.76, P = 1.9 × 10-8). An independent common variant association in the protective direction ( rs2072659 ; OR = 0.96; CI = 0.94-0.98; P = 5.3 × 10-6) was also evident, suggesting an allelic series. Our findings in humans align with decades-old experimental observations in mice that ß2 loss abolishes nicotine-mediated neuronal responses and attenuates nicotine self-administration. Our genetic discovery will inspire future drug designs targeting CHRNB2 in the brain for the treatment of nicotine addiction.

Genome-wide analysis provides genetic evidence that ACE2 influences COVID-19 risk and yields risk scores associated with severe disease.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) enters human host cells via angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Here, through a genome-wide association study, we identify a variant (rs190509934, minor allele frequency 0.2-2%) that downregulates ACE2 expression by 37% (P = 2.7 × 10-8) and reduces the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection by 40% (odds ratio = 0.60, P = 4.5 × 10-13), providing human genetic evidence that ACE2 expression levels influence COVID-19 risk. We also replicate the associations of six previously reported risk variants, of which four were further associated with worse outcomes in individuals infected with the virus (in/near LZTFL1, MHC, DPP9 and IFNAR2). Lastly, we show that common variants define a risk score that is strongly associated with severe disease among cases and modestly improves the prediction of disease severity relative to demographic and clinical factors alone.

Sequencing of 640,000 exomes identifies GPR75 variants associated with protection from obesity.

Large-scale human exome sequencing can identify rare protein-coding variants with a large impact on complex traits such as body adiposity. We sequenced the exomes of 645,626 individuals from the United Kingdom, the United States, and Mexico and estimated associations of rare coding variants with body mass index (BMI). We identified 16 genes with an exome-wide significant association with BMI, including those encoding five brain-expressed G protein-coupled receptors (CALCR, MC4R, GIPR, GPR151, and GPR75). Protein-truncating variants in GPR75 were observed in ~4/10,000 sequenced individuals and were associated with 1.8 kilograms per square meter lower BMI and 54% lower odds of obesity in the heterozygous state. Knock out of Gpr75 in mice resulted in resistance to weight gain and improved glycemic control in a high-fat diet model. Inhibition of GPR75 may provide a therapeutic strategy for obesity.

Genetic signature to provide robust risk assessment of psoriatic arthritis development in psoriasis patients.

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is a complex chronic musculoskeletal condition that occurs in ~30% of psoriasis patients. Currently, no systematic strategy is available that utilizes the differences in genetic architecture between PsA and cutaneous-only psoriasis (PsC) to assess PsA risk before symptoms appear. Here, we introduce a computational pipeline for predicting PsA among psoriasis patients using data from six cohorts with >7000 genotyped PsA and PsC patients. We identify 9 new loci for psoriasis or its subtypes and achieve 0.82 area under the receiver operator curve in distinguishing PsA vs. PsC when using 200 genetic markers. Among the top 5% of our PsA prediction we achieve >90% precision with 100% specificity and 16% recall for predicting PsA among psoriatic patients, using conditional inference forest or shrinkage discriminant analysis. Combining statistical and machine-learning techniques, we show that the underlying genetic differences between psoriasis subtypes can be used for individualized subtype risk assessment.