Natal legacies cause social and spatial marginalization during dispersal.

Early-life experiences can drive subsequent variation in social behaviours, but how differences among individuals emerge remains unknown. We combined experimental manipulations with GPS-tracking to investigate the pathways through which developmental conditions affect social network position during the early dispersal of wild red kites (Milvus milvus). Across 211 juveniles from 140 broods, last-hatched chicks-the least competitive-had the fewest number of peer encounters after fledging. However, when food supplemented, they had more encounters than all others. Using 4425 bird-days of GPS data, we revealed that this was driven by differential responses to competition, with less competitive individuals naturally spreading out into marginal areas, and clustering in central foraging areas when food supplemented. Our results suggest that early-life adversities can cause significant natal legacies on individual behaviour beyond independence, with potentially far-reaching consequences on the social and spatial structure of animal populations.

Fitting individual-based models of spatial population dynamics to long-term monitoring data.

Generating spatial predictions of species distribution is a central task for research and policy. Currently, correlative species distribution models (cSDMs) are among the most widely used tools for this purpose. However, a fundamental assumption of cSDMs, that species distributions are in equilibrium with their environment, is rarely fulfilled in real data and limits the applicability of cSDMs for dynamic projections. Process-based, dynamic SDMs (dSDMs) promise to overcome these limitations as they explicitly represent transient dynamics and enhance spatiotemporal transferability. Software tools for implementing dSDMs are becoming increasingly available, but their parameter estimation can be complex. Here, we test the feasibility of calibrating and validating a dSDM using long-term monitoring data of Swiss red kites (Milvus milvus). This population has shown strong increases in abundance and a progressive range expansion over the last decades, indicating a nonequilibrium situation. We construct an individual-based model using the RangeShiftR modeling platform and use Bayesian inference for model calibration. This allows the integration of heterogeneous data sources, such as parameter estimates from published literature and observational data from monitoring schemes, with a coherent assessment of parameter uncertainty. Our monitoring data encompass counts of breeding pairs at 267 sites across Switzerland over 22 years. We validate our model using a spatial-block cross-validation scheme and assess predictive performance with a rank-correlation coefficient. Our model showed very good predictive accuracy of spatial projections and represented well the observed population dynamics over the last two decades. Results suggest that reproductive success was a key factor driving the observed range expansion. According to our model, the Swiss red kite population fills large parts of its current range but has potential for further increases in density. We demonstrate the practicality of data integration and validation for dSDMs using RangeShiftR. This approach can improve predictive performance compared to cSDMs. The workflow presented here can be adopted for any population for which some prior knowledge on demographic and dispersal parameters as well as spatiotemporal observations of abundance or presence/absence are available. The fitted model provides improved quantitative insights into the ecology of a species, which can greatly aid conservation and management efforts.

Pollinator foraging tactics have divergent consequences for the mating system of a tropical plant.

Resolving the consequences of pollinator foraging behaviour for plant mating systems is a fundamental challenge in evolutionary ecology. Pollinators may adopt particular foraging tactics: complete trapline foraging (repeated movements along a fixed route), sample-and-shift trapline foraging (a variable route that incorporates information from previous experiences) and territorial foraging (stochastic movements within a restricted area). Studies that integrate these pollinator foraging tactics with plant mating systems are generally lacking. We investigate the consequences of particular pollinator foraging tactics for Heliconia tortuosa. We combine parentage and sibship inference analysis with simulation modelling to: estimate mating system parameters; infer the foraging tactic adopted by the pollinators; and quantify the impact of pollinator foraging tactics on mating system parameters. We found high outcrossing rates, ubiquitous multiple paternity and a pronounced departure from near-neighbour mating. We also found that plants repeatedly receive pollen from a series of particular donors. We infer that the pollinators primarily adopt complete trapline foraging and occasionally engage in sample-and-shift trapline foraging. This enhances multiple paternity without a substantial increase in near-neighbour mating. The particular pollinator foraging tactics have divergent consequences for multiple paternity and near-neighbour mating. Thus, pollinator foraging behaviour is an important driver of the ecology and evolution of plant mating systems.

Hungry or angry? Experimental evidence for the effects of food availability on two measures of stress in developing wild raptor nestlings.

Food shortage challenges the development of nestlings; yet, to cope with this stressor, nestlings can induce stress responses to adjust metabolism or behaviour. Food shortage also enhances the antagonism between siblings, but it remains unclear whether the stress response induced by food shortage operates via the individual nutritional state or via the social environment experienced. In addition, the understanding of these processes is hindered by the fact that effects of food availability often co-vary with other environmental factors. We used a food supplementation experiment to test the effect of food availability on two complementary stress measures, feather corticosterone (CORTf) and heterophil/lymphocyte ratio (H/L) in developing red kite (Milvus milvus) nestlings, a species with competitive brood hierarchy. By statistically controlling for the effect of food supplementation on the nestlings' body condition, we disentangled the effects of food and ambient temperature on nestlings during development. Experimental food supplementation increased body condition, and both CORTf and H/L were reduced in nestlings of high body condition. Additionally, CORTf decreased with age in non-supplemented nestlings. H/L decreased with age in all nestlings and was lower in supplemented last-hatched nestlings compared with non-supplemented ones. Ambient temperature showed a negative effect on H/L. Our results indicate that food shortage increases the nestlings' stress levels through a reduced food intake affecting both their nutritional state and their social environment. Thus, food availability in conjunction with ambient temperature shapes between- and within-nest differences in stress load, which may have carry-over effects on behaviour and performance in further life-history stages.

Reconciling biodiversity with timber production and revenue via an intensive forest management experiment.

Understanding how land-management intensification shapes the relationships between biodiversity, yield, and economic benefit is critical for managing natural resources. Yet, manipulative experiments that test how herbicides affect these relationships are scarce, particularly in forest ecosystems where considerable time lags exist between harvest revenue and initial investments. We assessed these relationships by combining 7 yr of biodiversity surveys (>800 taxa) and forecasts of timber yield and economic return from a replicated, large-scale experiment that manipulated herbicide application intensity in operational timber plantations. Herbicides reduced species richness across trophic groups (-18%), but responses by higher-level trophic groups were more variable (0-38% reduction) than plant responses (-40%). Financial discounting, a conventional economic method to standardize past and future cash flows, strongly modified biodiversity-revenue relationships caused by management intensity. Despite a projected 28% timber yield gain with herbicides, biodiversity-revenue trade-offs were muted when opportunity costs were high (i.e., economic discount rates ≥7%). Although herbicides can drive biodiversity-yield trade-offs, under certain conditions, financial discounting provides opportunities to reconcile biodiversity conservation with revenue.

Landscape configurational heterogeneity by small-scale agriculture, not crop diversity, maintains pollinators and plant reproduction in western Europe.

Agricultural intensification is one of the main causes for the current biodiversity crisis. While reversing habitat loss on agricultural land is challenging, increasing the farmland configurational heterogeneity (higher field border density) and farmland compositional heterogeneity (higher crop diversity) has been proposed to counteract some habitat loss. Here, we tested whether increased farmland configurational and compositional heterogeneity promote wild pollinators and plant reproduction in 229 landscapes located in four major western European agricultural regions. High-field border density consistently increased wild bee abundance and seed set of radish (Raphanus sativus), probably through enhanced connectivity. In particular, we demonstrate the importance of crop-crop borders for pollinator movement as an additional experiment showed higher transfer of a pollen analogue along crop-crop borders than across fields or along semi-natural crop borders. By contrast, high crop diversity reduced bee abundance, probably due to an increase of crop types with particularly intensive management. This highlights the importance of crop identity when higher crop diversity is promoted. Our results show that small-scale agricultural systems can boost pollinators and plant reproduction. Agri-environmental policies should therefore aim to halt and reverse the current trend of increasing field sizes and to reduce the amount of crop types with particularly intensive management.

Turning tables: food availability shapes dynamic aggressive behaviour among asynchronously hatching siblings in red kites Milvus milvus.

Aggression represents the backbone of dominance acquisition in several animal societies, where the decision to interact is dictated by its relative cost. Among siblings, such costs are weighted in the light of inclusive fitness, but how this translates to aggression patterns in response to changing external and internal conditions remains unclear. Using a null-model-based approach, we investigate how day-to-day changes in food provisioning affect aggression networks and food allocation in growing red kite (Milvus milvus) nestlings, whose dominance rank is largely dictated by age. We show that older siblings, irrespective of age, change from targeting only close-aged peers (close-competitor pattern) when food provisioning is low, to uniformly attacking all other peers (downward heuristic pattern) as food conditions improve. While food allocation was generally skewed towards the older siblings, the youngest sibling in the nest increased its probability of accessing food as more was provisioned and as downward heuristic patterns became more prominent, suggesting that different aggression patterns allow for catch-up growth after periods of low food. Our results indicate that dynamic aggression patterns within the nest modulate environmental effects on juvenile development by influencing the process of dominance acquisition and potentially impacting the fledging body condition, with far-reaching fitness consequences.

Climate-driven variation in dispersal ability predicts responses to forest fragmentation in birds.

Species sensitivity to forest fragmentation varies latitudinally, peaking in the tropics. A prominent explanation for this pattern is that historical landscape disturbance at higher latitudes has removed fragmentation-sensitive species or promoted the evolution of more resilient survivors. However, it is unclear whether this so-called extinction filter is the dominant driver of geographic variation in fragmentation sensitivity, particularly because climatic factors may also cause latitudinal gradients in dispersal ability, a key trait mediating sensitivity to habitat fragmentation. Here we combine field survey data with a morphological proxy for avian dispersal ability (hand-wing index) to assess responses to forest fragmentation in 1,034 bird species worldwide. We find that fragmentation sensitivity is strongly predicted by dispersal limitation and that other factors-latitude, body mass and historical disturbance events-have relatively limited explanatory power after accounting for species differences in dispersal. We also show that variation in dispersal ability is only weakly predicted by historical disturbance and more strongly associated with intra-annual temperature fluctuations (seasonality). Our results suggest that climatic factors play a dominant role in driving global variation in the impacts of forest fragmentation, emphasizing the need for more nuanced environmental policies that take into account local context and associated species traits.

When are hypotheses useful in ecology and evolution?

Research hypotheses have been a cornerstone of science since before Galileo. Many have argued that hypotheses (1) encourage discovery of mechanisms, and (2) reduce bias-both features that should increase transferability and reproducibility. However, we are entering a new era of big data and highly predictive models where some argue the hypothesis is outmoded. We hypothesized that hypothesis use has declined in ecology and evolution since the 1990s, given the substantial advancement of tools further facilitating descriptive, correlative research. Alternatively, hypothesis use may have become more frequent due to the strong recommendation by some journals and funding agencies that submissions have hypothesis statements. Using a detailed literature analysis (N = 268 articles), we found prevalence of hypotheses in eco-evo research is very low (6.7%-26%) and static from 1990-2015, a pattern mirrored in an extensive literature search (N = 302,558 articles). Our literature review also indicates that neither grant success nor citation rates were related to the inclusion of hypotheses, which may provide disincentive for hypothesis formulation. Here, we review common justifications for avoiding hypotheses and present new arguments based on benefits to the individual researcher. We argue that stating multiple alternative hypotheses increases research clarity and precision, and is more likely to address the mechanisms for observed patterns in nature. Although hypotheses are not always necessary, we expect their continued and increased use will help our fields move toward greater understanding, reproducibility, prediction, and effective conservation of nature.

Do birds help trees grow? An experimental study of the effects of land-use intensification on avian trophic cascades.

By regulating populations of herbivores, predators can indirectly influence plant production. However, the factors influencing the strength of this type of trophic cascade are still unclear. We hypothesized that changes to plant community structure would affect the number of avian predators, thereby mediating cascade strength. Using a 4-yr, blocked, split-plot experiment, we independently manipulated both predators (birds) and plants in an early seral managed forest system in western Oregon, USA, and measured abundance across three trophic levels. We applied herbicides, as a surrogate for land-use intensification, to recently clear-cut stands to establish an experimental gradient in plant abundance and species richness, and excluded birds using 28, 225 m2 exclosures. In total, we counted and identified 94,738 arthropods of 141 families in paired control and bird exclosure plots. On average, insectivorous birds reduced arthropod abundance by 16% and plant damage by 14%, and some well-known pests (e.g., Adelges cooleyi) of crop trees (mostly Pseudotsuga menziesii) in our system were reduced by as much as 30%. However, this effect did not translate into a trophic cascade that increased crop-tree growth in the presence of birds. We experimentally reduced plant abundance and diversity by 67% and 55%, respectively, in the most intensive herbicide treatment in relation to untreated controls, but reduced vegetative resources did not change the strength of the direct effect of birds on arthropods or the indirect effect of birds on plants.

The Landscape Genetic Signature of Pollination by Trapliners: Evidence From the Tropical Herb, Heliconia tortuosa.

Animal-mediated pollination is essential for the maintenance of plant reproduction, especially in tropical ecosystems, where pollination networks have been thought to have highly generalized structures. However, accumulating evidence suggests that not all floral visitors provide equally effective pollination services, potentially reducing the number of realized pollinators and increasing the cryptic specialization of pollination networks. Thus, there is a need to understand how different functional groups of pollinators influence pollination success. Here, we examined whether patterns of contemporary pollen-mediated gene flow in Heliconia tortuosa are consistent with the foraging strategy of its territorial or traplining hummingbird pollinators. Territorial hummingbirds defend clumps of flowers and are expected to transfer pollen locally. In contrast, traplining hummingbirds forage across longer distances, thereby increasing pollen flow among forest fragments, and are thought to repeatedly visit particular plants. If trapliners indeed visit the same plants repeatedly along their regular routes, this could lead to a situation where neighboring plants sample genetically distinct pollen pools. To test this hypothesis, we genotyped 720 seeds and 71 mother plants from 18 forest fragments at 11 microsatellite loci. We performed TwoGener analysis to test pollen pool differentiation within sites (among neighboring plants within the same forest fragment: Φ SC ) and between sites (among forest fragments: Φ CT ). We found strong, statistically significant pollen pool differentiation among neighboring mother plants (Φ SC = 0.0506), and weaker, statistically significant differentiation among sites (Φ CT = 0.0285). We interpret this pattern of hierarchical pollen pool differentiation as the landscape genetic signature of the foraging strategy of traplining hummingbirds, where repeatable, long-distance, and high-fidelity routes transfer pollen among particular plants. Although H. tortuosa is also visited by territorial hummingbirds, our results suggest that these pollinators do not contribute substantially to successful pollination, highlighting differences in realized pollination efficiency. This cryptic reduction in the number of realized pollinators potentially increases the vulnerability of pollination success to the decline of populations of traplining hummingbirds, which have been shown to be sensitive to forest fragmentation. We conclude that maintaining habitat connectivity to sustain the foraging routes of trapliners may be essential for the maintenance of pollen-mediated gene flow in human-modified landscapes.