A quantitative assessment of renal function utilizing albuminuria in pediatric heart transplant recipients.

INTRODUCTION: Kidney disease is common after pediatric heart transplantation. Serum creatinine-based glomerular filtration rate is the most frequently reported measure of kidney function. Albuminuria is an additional marker of kidney dysfunction and is not well described in this population. In this study, we evaluate the prevalence and degree of albuminuria and describe clinical factors associated with albuminuria in a cohort of pediatric heart transplant recipients. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of pediatric heart transplant recipients. Albuminuria was assessed using spot urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio collected at the most recent annual screening cardiac catheterization through August 2019. RESULTS: In 115 patients at a median duration of 10.2 years post-transplant, 39% had albuminuria. Stage 3 or greater chronic kidney disease was present in 6%. The immunosuppressive regimen at the time of measurement contained a calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) in 88% and a proliferation signal inhibitor (PSI) in 62%. In multivariable modeling, lower eGFR, PSI use, and younger age at transplant were associated with higher levels of albuminuria, whereas CNI use was associated with lower levels of albuminuria. CONCLUSION: Albuminuria is a prevalent finding in medium-term follow up of pediatric heart transplant recipients, reflecting kidney injury, and is associated with other markers of kidney dysfunction, such as low eGFR. Younger age at transplant, lower eGFR, and PSI use were among the associations with albuminuria.

Predictors of post-operative left atrioventricular valve regurgitation in pediatric patients with complete atrioventricular canal defects.

BACKGROUND: In infants with complete atrioventricular canal (CAVC) defects, post-operative left atrioventricular valve regurgitation (LAVVR) is a known major cause of morbidity and mortality and a common indication for re-operation. However, there is scarce data to identify risk factors for poor outcomes. Our study aims to find echocardiographic characteristics that predict post-operative LAVVR at discharge and 1-year follow-up. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of patients with initial CAVC repair at our hospital who were followed for 1 year between 2013 and 2022. Patients with major co-morbid conditions were excluded. Serial echocardiograms were reviewed. Anatomic details, quantitative and qualitative measure of LAVVR including the number of regurgitant jets, regurgitant jet length and vena contracta width, and ventricular function were collected. The time points measured include pre-operative transthoracic echocardiogram (TTE), post-operative transesophageal echocardiogram (PO-TEE), routine protocol based post-operative day 1 (POD1) TTE, discharge TTE and 1-year post-operative (1yPO) TTE. Paired t-tests, chi-square analysis, and linear regression analysis were performed comparing measured variables to LAVVR outcomes. RESULTS: Fifty-two patients were included; 92% had Trisomy 21. The majority were classified as Rastelli A (71%), others Rastelli C (29%). Only two patients had moderate or greater LAVVR pre-operatively. The mean age at repair was 125 ± 44 days. Pre-operative LAVVR was the only significant predictor of LAVVR severity at 1 year after backward stepwise regression. Of those with < moderate LAVVR on PO-TEE, 20% had worsening to ≥ moderate at discharge, but only 9% remained that way at 1 year. Of those with ≥ moderate LAVVR on PO-TEE, 40% improved to < moderate by 1 year. Two patients who worsened at 1 year, both secondary to likely cleft suture dehiscence. Only one patient required reoperation in the immediate post-operative period secondary to severe LAVVR due to suture dehiscence. Routine protocol-based POD1 echo did not have any association with altered outcomes. CONCLUSION: Pre-operative LAVVR was the only significant predictor of LAVVR severity at 1 year. A significant percentage (40%) of patient with ≥ moderate LAVVR on PO-TEE improved to < moderate by 1 year. Furthermore, routine protocol-based POD1 echo did not have any association with altered outcomes.

Apixaban to Prevent Recurrence After Cryptogenic Stroke in Patients With Atrial Cardiopathy: The ARCADIA Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Atrial cardiopathy is associated with stroke in the absence of clinically apparent atrial fibrillation. It is unknown whether anticoagulation, which has proven benefit in atrial fibrillation, prevents stroke in patients with atrial cardiopathy and no atrial fibrillation. Objective: To compare anticoagulation vs antiplatelet therapy for secondary stroke prevention in patients with cryptogenic stroke and evidence of atrial cardiopathy. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter, double-blind, phase 3 randomized clinical trial of 1015 participants with cryptogenic stroke and evidence of atrial cardiopathy, defined as P-wave terminal force greater than 5000 µV × ms in electrocardiogram lead V1, serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level greater than 250 pg/mL, or left atrial diameter index of 3 cm/m2 or greater on echocardiogram. Participants had no evidence of atrial fibrillation at the time of randomization. Enrollment and follow-up occurred from February 1, 2018, through February 28, 2023, at 185 sites in the National Institutes of Health StrokeNet and the Canadian Stroke Consortium. Interventions: Apixaban, 5 mg or 2.5 mg, twice daily (n = 507) vs aspirin, 81 mg, once daily (n = 508). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary efficacy outcome in a time-to-event analysis was recurrent stroke. All participants, including those diagnosed with atrial fibrillation after randomization, were analyzed according to the groups to which they were randomized. The primary safety outcomes were symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and other major hemorrhage. Results: With 1015 of the target 1100 participants enrolled and mean follow-up of 1.8 years, the trial was stopped for futility after a planned interim analysis. The mean (SD) age of participants was 68.0 (11.0) years, 54.3% were female, and 87.5% completed the full duration of follow-up. Recurrent stroke occurred in 40 patients in the apixaban group (annualized rate, 4.4%) and 40 patients in the aspirin group (annualized rate, 4.4%) (hazard ratio, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.64-1.55]). Symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage occurred in 0 patients taking apixaban and 7 patients taking aspirin (annualized rate, 1.1%). Other major hemorrhages occurred in 5 patients taking apixaban (annualized rate, 0.7%) and 5 patients taking aspirin (annualized rate, 0.8%) (hazard ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.29-3.52]). Conclusions and Relevance: In patients with cryptogenic stroke and evidence of atrial cardiopathy without atrial fibrillation, apixaban did not significantly reduce recurrent stroke risk compared with aspirin. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03192215.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: The MESA Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvements in population health, marked racial and ethnic disparities in longevity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality persist. This study aimed to describe risks for all-cause and CVD mortality by race and ethnicity, before and after accounting for socioeconomic status (SES) and other factors, in the MESA study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). METHODS: MESA recruited 6814 US adults, 45 to 84 years of age, free of clinical CVD at baseline, including Black, White, Hispanic, and Chinese individuals (2000-2002). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling with time-updated covariates, we evaluated the association of self-reported race and ethnicity with all-cause and adjudicated CVD mortality, with progressive adjustments for age and sex, SES (neighborhood SES, income, education, and health insurance), lifestyle and psychosocial risk factors, clinical risk factors, and immigration history. RESULTS: During a median of 15.8 years of follow-up, 22.8% of participants (n=1552) died, of which 5.3% (n=364) died of CVD. After adjusting for age and sex, Black participants had a 34% higher mortality hazard (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]), Chinese participants had a 21% lower mortality hazard (HR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.66-0.95]), and there was no mortality difference in Hispanic participants (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.86-1.14]) compared with White participants. After adjusting for SES, the mortality HR for Black participants compared with White participants was reduced (HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.01-1.34]) but still statistically significant. With adjustment for SES, the mortality hazards for Chinese and Hispanic participants also decreased in comparison with White participants. After further adjustment for additional risk factors and immigration history, Hispanic participants (HR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.63-0.94]) had a lower mortality risk than White participants, and hazard ratios for Black participants (HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.92-1.26]) and Chinese participants (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.60-1.08]) were not significantly different from those of White participants. Similar trends were seen for CVD mortality, although the age- and sex-adjusted HR for CVD mortality for Black participants compared with White participants was greater than all-cause mortality (HR, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.34-2.21] compared with HR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.19-1.51]). CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight persistent racial and ethnic differences in overall and CVD mortality, largely attributable to social determinants of health, and support the need to identify and act on systemic factors that shape differences in health across racial and ethnic groups.

Mycophenolic acid therapeutic drug monitoring using area under the curve in pediatric heart transplant recipients.

INTRODUCTION: Pharmacokinetics of mycophenolic acid (MPA) display substantial interpatient variability, with up to 10-fold difference of exposure in individual patients under a fixed-dose regimen. MPA trough level (C0) monitoring is common in clinical practice but has not proven sufficiently informative in predicting MPA exposure or patient outcomes, especially in children. No limited sampling strategies (LSSs) have been generated from pediatric heart transplant (HTx) recipients to estimate MPA AUC. METHODS: Single-center, observational analysis of 135 de novo pediatric HTx recipients ≤21 years old who underwent MPA AUC between 2011 and 2021. RESULTS: Median age was 4 years (IQR .6-12.1). Median time from transplant to MPA AUC sampling was 15 days (IQR 11-19). MMF doses (mg or mg/day) had low, negative Pearson correlation coefficients (r) while doses adjusted for weight or body surface area had low correlation with Trapezoidal MPA AUC0-24 h (r = .3 and .383, respectively). MPA C0 had weak association (r = .451) with Trapezoidal MPA AUC0-24 h . LSS with two pharmacokinetic sampling time points at 90 (C3 ) and 360 (C5 ) min after MMF administration (estimated AUC0-24 h  = 32.82 + 4.12 × C3  + 11.53 × C5 ) showed strong correlation with Trapezoidal MPA AUC0-24 h (r = .87). CONCLUSION: MMF at fixed or weight-adjusted doses, as well as MPA trough levels, correlate poorly with MPA AUC0-24 h . We developed novel LSSs to estimate Trapezoidal MPA AUC from a large cohort of pediatric HTx recipients. Validation of our LSSs should be completed in a separate cohort of pediatric HTx recipients.

Lung function impairment and risk of incident heart failure: the NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study.

AIMS: The aim is to evaluate associations of lung function impairment with risk of incident heart failure (HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were pooled across eight US population-based cohorts that enrolled participants from 1987 to 2004. Participants with self-reported baseline cardiovascular disease were excluded. Spirometry was used to define obstructive [forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) <0.70] or restrictive (FEV1/FVC ≥0.70, FVC <80%) lung physiology. The incident HF was defined as hospitalization or death caused by HF. In a sub-set, HF events were sub-classified as HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF; EF <50%) or preserved EF (HFpEF; EF ≥50%). The Fine-Gray proportional sub-distribution hazards models were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, smoking, and cardiovascular risk factors. In models of incident HF sub-types, HFrEF, HFpEF, and non-HF mortality were treated as competing risks. Among 31 677 adults, there were 3344 incident HF events over a median follow-up of 21.0 years. Of 2066 classifiable HF events, 1030 were classified as HFrEF and 1036 as HFpEF. Obstructive [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.27] and restrictive physiology (adjusted HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.27-1.62) were associated with incident HF. Obstructive and restrictive ventilatory defects were associated with HFpEF but not HFrEF. The magnitude of the association between restrictive physiology and HFpEF was similar to associations with hypertension, diabetes, and smoking. CONCLUSION: Lung function impairment was associated with increased risk of incident HF, and particularly incident HFpEF, independent of and to a similar extent as major known cardiovascular risk factors.

Nonclassical Monocytes (CD14dimCD16+) Are Associated With Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Progression for Men but Not Women: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis-Brief Report.

[Figure: see text].

Association Between Cytomegalovirus Serostatus, Antiviral Therapy, and Allograft Survival in Pediatric Heart Transplantation.

Background: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is an important complication of heart transplantation and has been associated with graft loss in adults. The data in pediatric transplantation, however, is limited and conflicting. We conducted a large-scale cohort study to better characterize the relationship between CMV serostatus, CMV antiviral use, and graft survival in pediatric heart transplantation. Methods: 4,968 pediatric recipients of solitary heart transplants from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients were stratified into three groups based on donor or recipient seropositivity and antiviral use: CMV seronegative (CMV-) transplants, CMV seropositive (CMV+) transplants without antiviral therapy, and CMV+ transplants with antiviral therapy. The primary endpoint was retransplantation or death. Results: CMV+ transplants without antiviral therapy experienced worse graft survival than CMV+ transplants with antiviral therapy (10-year: 57 vs 65%). CMV+ transplants with antiviral therapy experienced similar survival as CMV- transplants. Compared to CMV seronegativity, CMV seropositivity without antiviral therapy had a hazard ratio of 1.21 (1.07-1.37 95% CI, p-value = .003). Amongst CMV+ transplants, antiviral therapy had a hazard ratio of .82 (0.74-.92 95% CI, p-value < .001). During the first year after transplantation, these hazard ratios were 1.32 (1.06-1.64 95% CI, p-value .014) and .59 (.48-.73 95% CI, p-value < .001), respectively. Conclusions: CMV seropositivity is associated with an increased risk of graft loss in pediatric heart transplant recipients, which occurs early after transplantation and may be mitigated by antiviral therapy.

Estimating filling pressures in paediatric heart transplant recipients using echocardiographic parameters and B-type natriuretic peptide.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal evaluation of allograft diastolic function in paediatric heart transplant recipients is important for early detection of acute rejection, cardiac allograft vasculopathy, and graft dysfunction. Mean diastolic right atrial and pulmonary capillary wedge pressures obtained at catheterisation are the reference standards for assessment. Echocardiography is non-invasive and more suitable for serial surveillance, but individual parameters have lacked accuracy. This study aimed to identify covariates of post-transplant mean right atrial and pulmonary capillary wedge pressures, including B-type natriuretic peptide and certain echocardiographic parameters. METHODS: A retrospective review of 143 scheduled cardiac catheterisations and echocardiograms from 56 paediatric recipients transplanted from 2007 to 2011 was performed. Samples with rejection were excluded. Univariate and multivariate linear regression models using backward selection were applied to a database consisting of B-type natriuretic peptide, haemodynamic, and echocardiographic data. RESULTS: Ln B-type natriuretic peptide, heart rate z-score, left ventricular end-diastolic dimension z-score, mitral E/e', and percent interventricular septal thickening in systole were independently associated with mean right atrial pressure. Ln B-type natriuretic peptide, heart rate z-score, left ventricular end-diastolic dimension z-score, left ventricular mass (observed/predicted), and mitral E/e' were independently associated with mean pulmonary capillary wedge pressure. Covariates of B-type natriuretic peptide included mean pulmonary artery and pulmonary capillary wedge pressures, height, haemoglobin, fractional shortening, percent interventricular septal thickening in systole, and pulmonary vascular resistance index. CONCLUSIONS: B-type natriuretic peptide and echocardiographic indices of diastolic function were independently related to post-transplant mean right atrial and pulmonary capillary wedge pressures in paediatric heart transplant recipients without rejection.

Associations of Angiopoietins With Heart Failure Incidence and Severity.

BACKGROUND: Angiopoietin-1 and 2 (Ang1, Ang2) are important mediators of angiogenesis. Angiopoietin levels are perturbed in cardiovascular disease, but it is unclear whether angiopoietin signaling is causative, an adaptive response, or merely epiphenomenon of disease activity. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a cohort free of cardiovascular disease at baseline (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA]), relationships between angiopoietins, cardiac morphology, and subsequent incidence of heart failure or cardiovascular death were evaluated. In cohorts with pulmonary arterial hypertension or left heart disease, associations between angiopoietins, invasive hemodynamics, and adverse clinical outcomes were evaluated. In MESA, Ang2 was associated with a higher incidence of heart failure or cardiovascular death (hazard ratio 1.21 per standard deviation, P < .001). Ang2 was associated with increased right atrial pressure (pulmonary arterial hypertension cohort) and increased wedge pressure and right atrial pressure (left heart disease cohort). Elevated Ang2 was associated with mortality in the pulmonary arterial hypertension cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Ang2 was associated with incident heart failure or death among adults without cardiovascular disease at baseline and with disease severity in individuals with existing heart failure. Our finding that Ang2 is increased before disease onset and that elevations reflect disease severity, suggests Ang2 may contribute to heart failure pathogenesis.

Validation of Prenatal Aortic Arch Angle Measurements in the Diagnosis of Neonatal Coarctation of the Aorta.

Prenatal prediction of coarctation of the aorta (CoA) is challenging. Methods identifying prenatal CoA have high sensitivity with significant false positives. We previously derived prenatal aortic arch angles for identifying CoA with high sensitivity and specificity and aim to validate these angles and compare them with a model utilizing ascending aorta (AAo) and isthmus (Aoi) measures. Retrospective case/cohort study of fetuses with prenatal suspicion for CoA. 35 fetuses were included. Measurements included: ascending-descending aortic angle (AAo.DAo), transverse-descending aortic angle (TAo.DAo); diameters and z-scores of Aoi from sagittal (Aoi-sag), three-vessel (Aoi-3VV) view and AAo. Discriminant functions for the 5 variables were compared using histograms and positive/negative predictive values (PPV/NPV). CoA was confirmed in 28/35 neonates. The PPV and NPV for angle measures were 100% and 77%. The AAo + Aoi-3VV model PPV and NPV were 92% and 80% and Aoi-sag + Aoi-3VV model were 82% and 71%. A linear discriminant model utilizing the 3 most predictive variables improved NPV to 90% and PPV to 100%. In conclusion, we validate that angle measures are superior to standard models of predicting CoA. An optimized 3 variable model maintains accuracy of identifying CoA while eliminating false positives.

Impact of Abstinence and of Reducing Illicit Drug Use Without Abstinence on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Viral Load.

BACKGROUND: Substance use is common among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) and a barrier to achieving viral suppression. Among PLWH who report illicit drug use, we evaluated associations between HIV viral load (VL) and reduced use of illicit opioids, methamphetamine/crystal, cocaine/crack, and marijuana, regardless of whether or not abstinence was achieved. METHODS: This was a longitudinal cohort study of PLWH from 7 HIV clinics or 4 clinical studies. We used joint longitudinal and survival models to examine the impact of decreasing drug use and of abstinence for each drug on viral suppression. We repeated analyses using linear mixed models to examine associations between change in frequency of drug use and VL. RESULTS: The number of PLWH who were using each drug at baseline ranged from n = 568 (illicit opioids) to n = 4272 (marijuana). Abstinence was associated with higher odds of viral suppression (odds ratio [OR], 1.4-2.2) and lower relative VL (ranging from 21% to 42% by drug) for all 4 drug categories. Reducing frequency of illicit opioid or methamphetamine/crystal use without abstinence was associated with VL suppression (OR, 2.2, 1.6, respectively). Reducing frequency of illicit opioid or methamphetamine/crystal use without abstinence was associated with lower relative VL (47%, 38%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Abstinence was associated with viral suppression. In addition, reducing use of illicit opioids or methamphetamine/crystal, even without abstinence, was also associated with viral suppression. Our findings highlight the impact of reducing substance use, even when abstinence is not achieved, and the potential benefits of medications, behavioral interventions, and harm-reduction interventions.

A Dyadic Growth Modeling Approach for Examining Associations Between Weight Gain and Lung Function Decline.

The relationship between body weight and lung function is complex. Using a dyadic multilevel linear modeling approach, treating body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) and lung function as paired, within-person outcomes, we tested the hypothesis that persons with more rapid increase in BMI exhibit more rapid decline in lung function, as measured by forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and their ratio (FEV1:FVC). Models included random intercepts and slopes and adjusted for sociodemographic and smoking-related factors. A sample of 9,115 adults with paired measurements of BMI and lung function taken at ≥3 visits were selected from a pooled set of 5 US population-based cohort studies (1983-2018; mean age at baseline = 46 years; median follow-up, 19 years). At age 46 years, average annual rates of change in BMI, FEV1, FVC, and FEV1:FVC ratio were 0.22 kg/m2/year, -25.50 mL/year, -21.99 mL/year, and -0.24%/year, respectively. Persons with steeper BMI increases had faster declines in FEV1 (r = -0.16) and FVC (r = -0.26) and slower declines in FEV1:FVC ratio (r = 0.11) (all P values < 0.0001). Results were similar in subgroup analyses. Residual correlations were negative (P < 0.0001), suggesting additional interdependence between BMI and lung function. Results show that greater rates of weight gain are associated with greater rates of lung function loss.

Albuminuria, Lung Function Decline, and Risk of Incident Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. The NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study.

RATIONALE: Chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRDs), including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma, are the fourth leading cause of death. Prior studies suggest that albuminuria, a biomarker of endothelial injury, is increased in patients with COPD. OBJECTIVES: To test whether albuminuria was associated with lung function decline and incident CLRDs. METHODS: Six U.S. population-based cohorts were harmonized and pooled. Participants with prevalent clinical lung disease were excluded. Albuminuria (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio) was measured in spot samples. Lung function was assessed by spirometry. Incident CLRD-related hospitalizations and deaths were classified via adjudication and/or administrative criteria. Mixed and proportional hazards models were used to test individual-level associations adjusted for age, height, weight, sex, race/ethnicity, education, birth year, cohort, smoking status, pack-years of smoking, renal function, hypertension, diabetes, and medications. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 10,961 participants with preserved lung function, mean age at albuminuria measurement was 60 years, 51% were never-smokers, median albuminuria was 5.6 mg/g, and mean FEV1 decline was 31.5 ml/yr. For each SD increase in log-transformed albuminuria, there was 2.81% greater FEV1 decline (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.86-4.76%; P = 0.0047), 11.02% greater FEV1/FVC decline (95% CI, 4.43-17.62%; P = 0.0011), and 15% increased hazard of incident spirometry-defined moderate-to-severe COPD (95% CI, 2-31%, P = 0.0021). Each SD log-transformed albuminuria increased hazards of incident COPD-related hospitalization/mortality by 26% (95% CI, 18-34%, P < 0.0001) among 14,213 participants followed for events. Asthma events were not significantly associated. Associations persisted in participants without current smoking, diabetes, hypertension, or cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Albuminuria was associated with greater lung function decline, incident spirometry-defined COPD, and incident COPD-related events in a U.S. population-based sample.

Association of Dysanapsis With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Among Older Adults.

Importance: Smoking is a major risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), yet much of COPD risk remains unexplained. Objective: To determine whether dysanapsis, a mismatch of airway tree caliber to lung size, assessed by computed tomography (CT), is associated with incident COPD among older adults and lung function decline in COPD. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study of 2 community-based samples: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Lung Study, which involved 2531 participants (6 US sites, 2010-2018) and the Canadian Cohort of Obstructive Lung Disease (CanCOLD), which involved 1272 participants (9 Canadian sites, 2010-2018), and a case-control study of COPD: the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS), which involved 2726 participants (12 US sites, 2011-2016). Exposures: Dysanapsis was quantified on CT as the geometric mean of airway lumen diameters measured at 19 standard anatomic locations divided by the cube root of lung volume (airway to lung ratio). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was COPD defined by postbronchodilator ratio of forced expired volume in the first second to vital capacity (FEV1:FVC) less than 0.70 with respiratory symptoms. Secondary outcome was longitudinal lung function. All analyses were adjusted for demographics and standard COPD risk factors (primary and secondhand tobacco smoke exposures, occupational and environmental pollutants, and asthma). Results: In the MESA Lung sample (mean [SD] age, 69 years [9 years]; 1334 women [52.7%]), 237 of 2531 participants (9.4%) had prevalent COPD, the mean (SD) airway to lung ratio was 0.033 (0.004), and the mean (SD) FEV1 decline was -33 mL/y (31 mL/y). Of 2294 MESA Lung participants without prevalent COPD, 98 (4.3%) had incident COPD at a median of 6.2 years. Compared with participants in the highest quartile of airway to lung ratio, those in the lowest had a significantly higher COPD incidence (9.8 vs 1.2 cases per 1000 person-years; rate ratio [RR], 8.12; 95% CI, 3.81 to 17.27; rate difference, 8.6 cases per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 7.1 to 9.2; P < .001) but no significant difference in FEV1 decline (-31 vs -33 mL/y; difference, 2 mL/y; 95% CI, -2 to 5; P = .30). Among CanCOLD participants (mean [SD] age, 67 years [10 years]; 564 women [44.3%]), 113 of 752 (15.0%) had incident COPD at a median of 3.1 years and the mean (SD) FEV1 decline was -36 mL/y (75 mL/y). The COPD incidence in the lowest airway to lung quartile was significantly higher than in the highest quartile (80.6 vs 24.2 cases per 1000 person-years; RR, 3.33; 95% CI, 1.89 to 5.85; rate difference, 56.4 cases per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 38.0 to 66.8; P<.001), but the FEV1 decline did not differ significantly (-34 vs -36 mL/y; difference, 1 mL/y; 95% CI, -15 to 16; P=.97). Among 1206 SPIROMICS participants (mean [SD] age, 65 years [8 years]; 542 women [44.9%]) with COPD who were followed up for a median 2.1 years, those in the lowest airway to lung ratio quartile had a mean FEV1 decline of -37 mL/y (15 mL/y), which did not differ significantly from the decline in MESA Lung participants (P = .98), whereas those in highest quartile had significantly faster decline than participants in MESA Lung (-55 mL/y [16 mL/y ]; difference, -17 mL/y; 95% CI, -32 to -3; P = .004). Conclusions and Relevance: Among older adults, dysanapsis was significantly associated with COPD, with lower airway tree caliber relative to lung size associated with greater COPD risk. Dysanapsis appears to be a risk factor associated with COPD.

Left Ventricular Mass at MRI and Long-term Risk of Cardiovascular Events: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

Background Few data exist on the long-term risk prediction of elevated left ventricular (LV) mass quantified by MRI for cardiovascular (CV) events in a contemporary, ethnically diverse cohort. Purpose To assess the long-term impact of elevated LV mass on CV events in a prospective cohort study of a multiethnic population in relationship to risk factors and coronary artery calcium (CAC) score. Materials and Methods The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, or MESA (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00005487), is an ongoing prospective multicenter population-based study in the United States. A total of 6814 participants (age range, 45-84 years) free of clinical CV disease at baseline were enrolled between 2000 and 2002. In 4988 participants (2613 [52.4%] women; mean age, 62 years ± 10.1 [standard deviation]) followed over 15 years for CV events, LV mass was derived from cardiac MRI at baseline enrollment by using semiautomated software at a central core laboratory. Cox proportional hazard models, Kaplan-Meier curves, and z scores were applied to assess the impact of LV hypertrophy. Results A total of 290 participants had hard coronary heart disease (CHD) events (207 myocardial infarctions [MIs], 95 CHD deaths), 57 had other CV disease-related deaths, and 215 had heart failure (HF). LV hypertrophy was an independent predictor of hard CHD events (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.9, 3.8), MI (HR: 2.8; 95% CI: 1.8, 4.0), CHD death (HR: 4.3; 95% CI: 2.5, 7.3), other CV death (HR: 7.5; 95% CI: 4.2, 13.5), and HF (HR: 5.4; 95% CI: 3.8, 7.5) (P < .001 for all end points). LV hypertrophy was a stronger predictor than CAC for CHD death, other CV death, and HF (z scores: 5.4 vs 3.4, 6.8 vs 2.4, and 9.7 vs 3.2 for LV hypertrophy vs CAC, respectively). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated an increased risk of CV events in participants with LV hypertrophy, particularly after 5 years. Conclusion Elevated left ventricular mass was strongly associated with hard coronary heart disease events, other cardiovascular death, and heart failure over 15 years of follow-up, independent of traditional risk factors and coronary artery calcium score. © RSNA, 2019 See also the editorial by Hanneman in this issue.

Ten-year association of coronary artery calcium with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA).

Aims: While coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been extensively validated for predicting clinical events, most outcome studies of CAC have evaluated coronary heart disease (CHD) rather than atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events (including stroke). Also, virtually all CAC studies are of short- or intermediate-term follow-up, so studies across multi-ethnic cohorts with long-term follow-up are warranted prior to widespread clinical use. We sought to evaluate the contribution of CAC using the population-based MESA cohort with over 10 years of follow-up for ASCVD events, and whether the association of CAC with events varied by sex, race/ethnicity, or age category. Methods and results: We utilized MESA, a prospective multi-ethnic cohort study of 6814 participants (51% women), aged 45-84 years, free of clinical CVD at baseline. We evaluated the relationship between CAC and incident ASCVD using Cox regression models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, income, cigarette smoking status, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes, lipid-lowering medication, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, intentional physical exercise, and body mass index. Only the first event for each individual was used in the analysis. Overall, 500 incident ASCVD (7.4%) events were observed in the total study population over a median of 11.1 years. Hard ASCVD included 217 myocardial infarction, 188 strokes (not transient ischaemic attack), 13 resuscitated cardiac arrest, and 82 CHD deaths. Event rates in those with CAC = 0 Agatston units ranged from 1.3% to 5.6%, while for those with CAC > 300, the 10-year event rates ranged from 13.1% to 25.6% across different age, gender, and racial subgroups. At 10 years of follow-up, all participants with CAC > 100 were estimated to have >7.5% risk regardless of demographic subset. Ten-year ASCVD event rates increased steadily across CAC categories regardless of age, sex, or race/ethnicity. For each doubling of CAC, we estimated a 14% relative increment in ASCVD risk, holding all other risk factors constant. This association was not significantly modified by age, sex, race/ethnicity, or baseline lipid-lowering use. Conclusions: Coronary artery calcium is associated strongly and in a graded fashion with 10-year risk of incident ASCVD as it is for CHD, independent of standard risk factors, and similarly by age, gender, and ethnicity. While 10-year event rates in those with CAC = 0 were almost exclusively below 5%, those with CAC ≥ 100 were consistently above 7.5%, making these potentially valuable cutpoints for the consideration of preventive therapies. Coronary artery calcium strongly predicts risk with the same magnitude of effect in all races, age groups, and both sexes, which makes it among the most useful markers for predicting ASCVD risk.

High-Sensitive Cardiac Troponin T as an Early Biochemical Signature for Clinical and Subclinical Heart Failure: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

BACKGROUND: Although small elevations of high-sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) are associated with incident heart failure (HF) in the general population, the underlying mechanisms are not well defined. Evaluating the association of hs-cTnT with replacement fibrosis and progression of structural heart disease before symptoms is fundamental to understanding the potential of this biomarker in a HF prevention strategy. METHODS: We measured hs-cTnT at baseline among 4986 participants in MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a cohort initially free of overt cardiovascular disease (CVD). Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging was performed at baseline. Repeat cardiac magnetic resonance was performed 10 years later among 2831 participants who remained free of interim CVD events; of these, 1723 received gadolinium-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance for characterization of replacement fibrosis by late gadolinium enhancement. Progression of subclinical CVD was defined by 10-year change in left ventricular structure and function. Associations of hs-cTnT with incident HF, CV-related mortality, and coronary heart disease were estimated using Cox regression models. RESULTS: Late gadolinium enhancement for replacement fibrosis was detectable in 6.3% participants without interim CVD events by follow-up cardiac magnetic resonance. A graded association was observed between higher baseline hs-cTnT categories and late gadolinium enhancement (≥7.42 ng/L versus 12% (highest category versus

Atrial Cardiopathy and the Risk of Ischemic Stroke in the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study).

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Emerging evidence suggests that an underlying atrial cardiopathy may result in thromboembolism before atrial fibrillation (AF) develops. We examined the association between various markers of atrial cardiopathy and the risk of ischemic stroke. METHODS: The CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) prospectively enrolled community-dwelling adults ≥65 years of age. For this study, we excluded participants diagnosed with stroke or AF before baseline. Exposures were several markers of atrial cardiopathy: baseline P-wave terminal force in ECG lead V1, left atrial dimension on echocardiogram, and N terminal pro B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), as well as incident AF. Incident AF was ascertained from 12-lead electrocardiograms at annual study visits for the first decade after study enrollment and from inpatient and outpatient Medicare data throughout follow-up. The primary outcome was incident ischemic stroke. We used Cox proportional hazards models that included all 4 atrial cardiopathy markers along with adjustment for demographic characteristics and established vascular risk factors. RESULTS: Among 3723 participants who were free of stroke and AF at baseline and who had data on all atrial cardiopathy markers, 585 participants (15.7%) experienced an incident ischemic stroke during a median 12.9 years of follow-up. When all atrial cardiopathy markers were combined in 1 Cox model, we found significant associations with stroke for P-wave terminal force in ECG lead V1 (hazard ratio per 1000 µV*ms 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.001-1.08), log-transformed NT-proBNP (hazard ratio per doubling of NT-proBNP, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.16), and incident AF (hazard ratio, 2.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.67-2.48) but not left atrial dimension (hazard ratio per cm, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-1.10). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to clinically apparent AF, other evidence of abnormal atrial substrate is associated with subsequent ischemic stroke. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that thromboembolism from the left atrium may occur in the setting of several different manifestations of atrial disease.

Harmonization of Respiratory Data From 9 US Population-Based Cohorts: The NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study.

Chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRDs) are the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. To support investigations into CLRD risk determinants and new approaches to primary prevention, we aimed to harmonize and pool respiratory data from US general population-based cohorts. Data were obtained from prospective cohorts that performed prebronchodilator spirometry and were harmonized following 2005 ATS/ERS standards. In cohorts conducting follow-up for noncardiovascular events, CLRD events were defined as hospitalizations/deaths adjudicated as CLRD-related or assigned relevant administrative codes. Coding and variable names were applied uniformly. The pooled sample included 65,251 adults in 9 cohorts followed-up for CLRD-related mortality over 653,380 person-years during 1983-2016. Average baseline age was 52 years; 56% were female; 49% were never-smokers; and racial/ethnic composition was 44% white, 22% black, 28% Hispanic/Latino, and 5% American Indian. Over 96% had complete data on smoking, clinical CLRD diagnoses, and dyspnea. After excluding invalid spirometry examinations (13%), there were 105,696 valid examinations (median, 2 per participant). Of 29,351 participants followed for CLRD hospitalizations, median follow-up was 14 years; only 5% were lost to follow-up at 10 years. The NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study provides a harmonization standard applied to a large, US population-based sample that may be used to advance epidemiologic research on CLRD.