Competing risks analysis for neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as a predictor of diabetic retinopathy incidence in the Scottish population.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a major sight-threatening microvascular complication in individuals with diabetes. Systemic inflammation combined with oxidative stress is thought to capture most of the complexities involved in the pathology of diabetic retinopathy. A high level of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an indicator of abnormal immune system activity. Current estimates of the association of NLR with diabetes and its complications are almost entirely derived from cross-sectional studies, suggesting that the nature of the reported association may be more diagnostic than prognostic. Therefore, in the present study, we examined the utility of NLR as a biomarker to predict the incidence of DR in the Scottish population. METHODS: The incidence of DR was defined as the time to the first diagnosis of R1 or above grade in the Scottish retinopathy grading scheme from type 2 diabetes diagnosis. The effect of NLR and its interactions were explored using a competing risks survival model adjusting for other risk factors and accounting for deaths. The Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard model (FGR) was used to predict the effect of NLR on the incidence of DR. RESULTS: We analysed data from 23,531 individuals with complete covariate information. At 10 years, 8416 (35.8%) had developed DR and 2989 (12.7%) were lost to competing events (death) without developing DR and 12,126 individuals did not have DR. The median (interquartile range) level of NLR was 2.04 (1.5 to 2.7). The optimal NLR cut-off value to predict retinopathy incidence was 3.04. After accounting for competing risks at 10 years, the cumulative incidence of DR and deaths without DR were 50.7% and 21.9%, respectively. NLR was associated with incident DR in both Cause-specific hazard (CSH = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.28-2.07) and FGR models the subdistribution hazard (sHR = 2.24; 95% CI: 1.70-2.94). Both age and HbA1c were found to modulate the association between NLR and the risk of DR. CONCLUSIONS: The current study suggests that NLR has a promising potential to predict DR incidence in the Scottish population, especially in individuals less than 65 years and in those with well-controlled glycaemic status.

Postradioiodine Graves' management: The PRAGMA study.

OBJECTIVE: Thyroid status in the months following radioiodine (RI) treatment for Graves' disease can be unstable. Our objective was to quantify frequency of abnormal thyroid function post-RI and compare effectiveness of common management strategies. DESIGN: Retrospective, multicentre and observational study. PATIENTS: Adult patients with Graves' disease treated with RI with 12 months' follow-up. MEASUREMENTS: Euthyroidism was defined as both serum thyrotropin (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH]) and free thyroxine (FT4) within their reference ranges or, when only one was available, it was within its reference range; hypothyroidism as TSH ≥ 10 mU/L, or subnormal FT4 regardless of TSH; hyperthyroidism as TSH below and FT4 above their reference ranges; dysthyroidism as the sum of hypo- and hyperthyroidism; subclinical hypothyroidism as normal FT4 and TSH between the upper limit of normal and <10 mU/L; and subclinical hyperthyroidism as low TSH and normal FT4. RESULTS: Of 812 patients studied post-RI, hypothyroidism occurred in 80.7% and hyperthyroidism in 48.6% of patients. Three principal post-RI management strategies were employed: (a) antithyroid drugs alone, (b) levothyroxine alone, and (c) combination of the two. Differences among these were small. Adherence to national guidelines regarding monitoring thyroid function in the first 6 months was low (21.4%-28.7%). No negative outcomes (new-onset/exacerbation of Graves' orbitopathy, weight gain, and cardiovascular events) were associated with dysthyroidism. There were significant differences in demographics, clinical practice, and thyroid status postradioiodine between centres. CONCLUSIONS: Dysthyroidism in the 12 months post-RI was common. Differences between post-RI strategies were small, suggesting these interventions alone are unlikely to address the high frequency of dysthyroidism.

The association of polypharmacy and high-risk drug classes with adverse health outcomes in the Scottish population with type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to map the number of prescribed drugs over age, sex and area-based socioeconomic deprivation, and to examine the association between the number of drugs and particular high-risk drug classes with adverse health outcomes among a national cohort of individuals with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Utilising linked healthcare records from the population-based diabetes register of Scotland, we identified 28,245 individuals with a diagnosis of type 1 diabetes on 1 January 2017. For this population, we obtained information on health status, predominantly reflecting diabetes-related complications, and information on the total number of drugs and particular high-risk drug classes prescribed. We then studied the association of these baseline-level features with hospital admissions for falls, diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), and hypoglycaemia or death within the subsequent year using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Not considering insulin and treatment for hypoglycaemia, the mean number of prescribed drugs was 4.00 (SD 4.35). The proportion of individuals being prescribed five or more drugs at baseline consistently increased with age (proportion [95% CI]: 0-19 years 2.04% [1.60, 2.49]; 40-49 years 28.50% [27.08, 29.93]; 80+ years 76.04% [67.73, 84.84]). Controlling for age, sex, area-based socioeconomic deprivation and health status, each additional drug at baseline was associated with an increase in the hazard for hospitalisation for falls, hypoglycaemia and death but not for DKA admissions (HR [95% CI]: falls 1.03 [1.01, 1.06]; DKA 1.01 [1.00, 1.03]; hypoglycaemia 1.05 [1.02, 1.07]; death 1.04 [1.02, 1.06]). We found a number of drug classes to be associated with an increased hazard of one or more of these adverse health outcomes, including antithrombotic/anticoagulant agents, corticosteroids, opioids, antiepileptics, antipsychotics, hypnotics and sedatives, and antidepressants. CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy is common among the Scottish population with type 1 diabetes and is strongly patterned by sociodemographic factors. The number of prescribed drugs and the prescription of particular high-risk drug classes are strong markers of an increased risk of adverse health outcomes, including acute complications of diabetes.

Preventing foot ulceration in diabetes: systematic review and meta-analyses of RCT data.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Foot ulceration is a serious complication for people with diabetes that results in high levels of morbidity for individuals and significant costs for health and social care systems. Nineteen systematic reviews of preventative interventions have been published, but none provides a reliable numerical summary of treatment effects. The aim of this study was to systematically review the evidence from RCTs and, where possible, conduct meta-analyses to make the best possible use of the currently available data. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of RCTs of preventative interventions for foot ulceration. OVID MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched to February 2019 and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials to October 2018. RCTs of interventions to prevent foot ulcers in people with diabetes who were free from foot ulceration at trial entry were included. Two independent reviewers read the full-text articles and extracted data. The quality of trial reporting was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. The primary outcome of foot ulceration was summarised using pooled relative risks in meta-analyses. RESULTS: Twenty-two RCTs of eight interventions were eligible for analysis. One trial of digital silicone devices (RR 0.07 [95% CI 0.01, 0.55]) and meta-analyses of dermal infrared thermometry (RR 0.41 [95% CI 0.19, 0.86]), complex interventions (RR 0.59 [95% CI 0.38, 0.90], and custom-made footwear and offloading insoles (RR 0.53 [95% CI 0.33, 0.85]) showed beneficial effects for these interventions. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Four interventions were identified as being effective in preventing foot ulcers in people with diabetes, but uncertainty remains about what works and who is most likely to benefit.

Time trends in deaths before age 50 years in people with type 1 diabetes: a nationwide analysis from Scotland 2004-2017.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to examine whether crude mortality and mortality relative to the general population below 50 years of age have improved in recent years in those with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Individuals with type 1 diabetes aged below 50 and at least 1 year old at any time between 2004 and 2017 in Scotland were identified using the national register. Death data were obtained by linkage to Scottish national death registrations. Indirect age standardisation was used to calculate sex-specific standardised mortality ratios (SMRs). Poisson regression was used to test for calendar-time effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). RESULTS: There were 1138 deaths in 251,143 person-years among 27,935 people with type 1 diabetes. There was a significant decline in mortality rate over time (IRR for calendar year 0.983 [95% CI 0.967, 0.998], p = 0.03), but the SMR remained approximately stable at 3.1 and 3.6 in men and 4.09 and 4.16 in women for 2004 and 2017, respectively. Diabetic ketoacidosis or coma (DKAoC) accounted for 22% of deaths and the rate did not decline significantly (IRR 0.975 [95% CI 0.94, 1.011], p = 0.168); 79.3% of DKAoC deaths occurred out of hospital. Circulatory diseases accounted for 27% of deaths and did decline significantly (IRR 0.946 [95% CI 0.914, 0.979], p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Absolute mortality has fallen, but the relative impact of type 1 diabetes on mortality below 50 years has not improved. There is scope to improve prevention of premature circulatory diseases and DKAoC and to develop more effective strategies for enabling people with type 1 diabetes to avoid clinically significant hyper- or hypoglycaemia. Graphical abstract.

The effect of dapagliflozin on glycaemic control and other cardiovascular disease risk factors in type 2 diabetes mellitus: a real-world observational study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, is indicated for improving glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Whether its effects on HbA1c and other variables, including safety outcomes, in clinical trials are obtained in real-world practice needs to be established. METHODS: We used data from the comprehensive national diabetes register, the Scottish Care Information-Diabetes (SCI-Diabetes) collaboration database, available from 2004 to mid-2016. Data within this database were linked to mortality data from the General Registrar, available from the Information Services Division (ISD) of the National Health Service in Scotland. We calculated crude within-person differences between pre- and post-drug-initiation values of HbA1c, BMI, body weight, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and eGFR. We used mixed-effects regression models to adjust for within-person time trajectories in these measures. For completeness, we evaluated safety outcomes, cardiovascular disease events, lower-limb amputation and diabetic ketoacidosis, focusing on cumulative exposure effects, using Cox proportional hazard models, though power to detect such effects was limited. RESULTS: Among 8566 people exposed to dapagliflozin over a median of 210 days the crude within-person change in HbA1c was -10.41 mmol/mol (-0.95%) after 3 months' exposure. The crude change after 12 months was -12.99 mmol/mol (-1.19%) but considering the expected rise over time in HbA1c gave a dapagliflozin-exposure-effect estimate of -15.14 mmol/mol (95% CI -15.87, -14.41) (-1.39% [95% CI -1.45, -1.32]) at 12 months that was maintained thereafter. A drop in SBP of -4.32 mmHg (95% CI -4.84, -3.79) on exposure within the first 3 months was also maintained thereafter. Reductions in BMI and body weight stabilised by 6 months at -0.82 kg/m2 (95% CI -0.87, -0.77) and -2.20 kg (95% CI -2.34, -2.06) and were maintained thereafter. eGFR declined initially by -1.81 ml min-1 [1.73 m]-2 (95% CI -2.10, -1.52) at 3 months but varied thereafter. There were no significant effects of cumulative drug exposure on safety outcomes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Dapagliflozin exposure was associated with reductions in HbA1c, SBP, body weight and BMI that were at least as large as in clinical trials. Dapagliflozin also prevented the expected rise in HbA1c and SBP over the period of study.

Use of personalised risk-based screening schedules to optimise workload and sojourn time in screening programmes for diabetic retinopathy: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: National guidelines in most countries set screening intervals for diabetic retinopathy (DR) that are insufficiently informed by contemporary incidence rates. This has unspecified implications for interval disease risks (IDs) of referable DR, disparities in ID between groups or individuals, time spent in referable state before screening (sojourn time), and workload. We explored the effect of various screening schedules on these outcomes and developed an open-access interactive policy tool informed by contemporary DR incidence rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Scottish Diabetic Retinopathy Screening Programme data from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2016 were linked to diabetes registry data. This yielded 128,606 screening examinations in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and 1,384,360 examinations in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Among those with T1D, 47% of those without and 44% of those with referable DR were female, mean diabetes duration was 21 and 23 years, respectively, and mean age was 26 and 24 years, respectively. Among those with T2D, 44% of those without and 42% of those with referable DR were female, mean diabetes duration was 9 and 14 years, respectively, and mean age was 58 and 52 years, respectively. Individual probability of developing referable DR was estimated using a generalised linear model and was used to calculate the intervals needed to achieve various IDs across prior grade strata, or at the individual level, and the resultant workload and sojourn time. The current policy in Scotland-screening people with no or mild disease annually and moderate disease every 6 months-yielded large differences in ID by prior grade (13.2%, 3.6%, and 0.6% annually for moderate, mild, and no prior DR strata, respectively, in T1D) and diabetes type (2.4% in T1D and 0.6% in T2D overall). Maintaining these overall risks but equalising risk across prior grade strata would require extremely short intervals in those with moderate DR (1-2 months) and very long intervals in those with no prior DR (35-47 months), with little change in workload or average sojourn time. Changing to intervals of 12, 9, and 3 months in T1D and to 24, 9, and 3 months in T2D for no, mild, and moderate DR strata, respectively, would substantially reduce disparity in ID across strata and between diabetes types whilst reducing workload by 26% and increasing sojourn time by 2.3 months. Including clinical risk factor data gave a small but significant increment in prediction of referable DR beyond grade (increase in C-statistic of 0.013 in T1D and 0.016 in T2D, both p < 0.001). However, using this model to derive personalised intervals did not have substantial workload or sojourn time benefits over stratum-specific intervals. The main limitation is that the results are pertinent only to countries that share broadly similar rates of retinal disease and risk factor distributions to Scotland. CONCLUSIONS: Changing current policies could reduce disparities in ID and achieve substantial reductions in workload within the range of IDs likely to be deemed acceptable. Our tool should facilitate more rational policy setting for screening.

Increased mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic hypoparathyroidism: A population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: A population-based study was undertaken to determine the mortality and morbidity for people with hypoparathyroidism compared to the general population. METHODS: In this study, patients identified with chronic hypoparathyroidism using data linkage from regional datasets were compared with five age- and gender-matched controls from the general population. Data from biochemistry, hospital admissions, prescribing and the demographic dataset were linked. Outcomes for mortality and specified conditions were examined for all patients and subdivided into post-surgical and non-surgical cases of hypoparathyroidism. RESULTS: All patients had an increased risk of epilepsy (HR 1.65 [95% CI 1.12-2.44]) and cataracts (HR 2.10 [1.30-3.39]) but no increased fracture risk. Only non-surgical hypoparathyroid patients also had increased mortality (HR 2.11 [1.49-2.98]), cardiovascular disease (HR 2.18 [1.41-3.39]), cerebrovascular disease (HR 2.95 [1.46-5.97]), infection (HR 1.87 [1.2-2.92]) and mental illness (HR 1.59 [1.21-2.11]). There was an increased risk of renal failure (HR 10.05 [95% CI 4.71-21.43]) during the first 2000 days (5.5 years) of follow-up. Renal failure and death were associated with increasing serum calcium concentrations. CONCLUSION: Patients with hypoparathyroidism have an increased risk of cataract and epilepsy. Non-surgical hypoparathyroidism is associated with increased mortality and additional morbidities.

Amputation-free survival in 17,353 people at high risk for foot ulceration in diabetes: a national observational study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to investigate amputation-free survival in people at high risk for foot ulceration in diabetes ('high-risk foot'), and to compare different subcategories of high-risk foot. METHODS: Overall, 17,353 people with diabetes and high-risk foot from January 2008 to December 2011 were identified from the Scotland-wide diabetes register (Scottish Care Information-Diabetes: N = 247,278). Participants were followed-up for up to 2 years from baseline and were categorised into three groups: (1) those with no previous ulcer, (2) those with an active ulcer or (3) those with a healed previous ulcer. Participants with prior minor or major amputation were excluded. Accelerated failure time models were used to compare amputation-free survival up to 2 years between the three exposure groups. RESULTS: The 2 year amputation-free survival rate in all people with diabetes with high-risk foot was 84.5%. In this study group, 270 people (10.0%) had an amputation and 2424 (90.0%) died during the 2 year follow-up period. People who had active and healed previous ulcers at baseline had significantly lower 2 year amputation-free survival compared with those who had no previous ulcer (both p < 0.0001). The percentage of people who died within 2 years for those with healed ulcer, active ulcer or no baseline ulcer was 22.8%, 16% and 12.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In people judged to be at high risk of foot ulceration, the risk of death was up to nine times the risk of amputation. Death rates were higher for people with diabetes who had healed ulcers than for those with active ulcers. However, people with active ulcers had the highest risk of amputation.

Diabetes and pregnancy: national trends over a 15 year period.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to examine time trends in national perinatal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by pre-existing type 1 or type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We analysed episode-level data on all obstetric inpatient delivery events (live or stillbirth) between 1 April 1998 and 31 March 2013 (n = 813,921) using the Scottish Morbidity Record (SMR02). Pregnancies to mothers with type 1 (n = 3229) and type 2 (n = 1452) diabetes were identified from the national diabetes database (Scottish Care Information-Diabetes), and perinatal outcomes were compared among women with type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes and those without diabetes. RESULTS: The number of pregnancies complicated by diabetes increased significantly, by 44% in type 1 diabetes and 90% in type 2 diabetes, across the 15 years examined, to rates of 1 in 210 and 1 in 504 deliveries, respectively. Compared with women without diabetes, delivery occurred 2.6 weeks earlier (type 1 diabetes 36.7 ± 2.3 weeks) and 2 weeks earlier (type 2 diabetes 37.3 ± 2.4 weeks), respectively, showing significant reductions for both type 1 (from 36.7 weeks to 36.4 weeks, p = 0.03) and type 2 (from 38.0 weeks to 37.2 weeks, p < 0.001) diabetes across the time period. The proportions of preterm delivery were markedly increased in women with diabetes (35.3% type 1 diabetes, 21.8% type 2 diabetes, 6.1% without diabetes; p < 0.0001), and these proportions increased with time for both groups (p < 0.005). Proportions of elective Caesarean sections (29.4% type 1 diabetes, 30.5% type 2 diabetes, 9.6% without diabetes) and emergency Caesarean sections (38.3% type 1 diabetes, 29.1% type 2 diabetes, 14.6% without diabetes) were greatly increased in women with diabetes and increased over time except for stable rates of emergency Caesarean section in type 1 diabetes. Gestational age-, sex- and parity-adjusted z score for birthweight (1.33 ± 1.34; p < 0.001) were higher in type 1 diabetes and increased over time from 1.22 to 1.47 (p < 0.001). Birthweight was also increased in type 2 diabetes (0.94 ± 1.34; p < 0.001) but did not alter with time. There were 65 perinatal deaths in offspring of mothers with type 1 diabetes and 39 to mothers with type 2 diabetes, representing perinatal mortality rates of 20.1 (95% CI 14.7, 24.3) and 26.9 (16.7, 32.9) per 1000 births, respectively, and rates 3.1 and 4.2 times, respectively, those observed in the non-diabetic population (p < 0.001). Stillbirth rates in type 1 and type 2 diabetes were 4.0-fold and 5.1-fold that in the non-diabetic population (p < 0.001). Perinatal mortality and stillbirth rates showed no significant fall over time despite small falls in the rates for the non-diabetic population. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Women with diabetes are receiving increased intervention in pregnancy (earlier delivery, increased Caesarean section rates), but despite this, higher birthweights are being recorded. Improvements in rates of stillbirth seen in the general population are not being reflected in changes in stillbirth or perinatal mortality in our population with diabetes.

Replication confirms the association of loci in FOXE1, PDE8B, CAPZB and PDE10A with thyroid traits: a Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research Tayside study (GoDARTS).

OBJECTIVE: Replication of associations in genome-wide association studies is desirable to ensure that such signals are potentially clinically meaningful. This study aimed to replicate associations of selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with hypothyroidism and serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) using electronic medical records (EMRs). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out among patients of European Caucasian ethnicity from the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research Tayside recruited in Tayside (Scotland, UK). EMRs (biochemistry, prescribing, hospital admissions and demographics) were used to ascertain patients with hypothyroidism and their controls as well as average serum TSH concentration, and linked to genetic biobank data. Genetic tests of association were performed using logistic and linear regression models. RESULTS: We analysed 1703 cases of hypothyroidism and 9457 controls. All four SNPs located on chromosome 9 at FOXE1 were associated with hypothyroidism with similar effect estimates (odds ratio=0.75-0.76, P<5e-08). Also, loci on chromosomes 1 (PTPN22), six (HLA-E/HLA-C) and 12 (SH2B3) were replicated. For serum TSH, we confirmed 12 SNPs previously reported at PDE8B, CAPZB, PDE10A, LOC105371356, NR3C2, VEGFA, IGFBP5, INSR, PRDM11, NFIA, ITPK1 and ABO. Overall, these SNPs accounted for 6.8% of the serum TSH variation (P<1e-04). CONCLUSION: EMRs linked to genomic data in large populations enable validation of genome-wide association studies discoveries without additional genotyping costs. Our replication confirmed at genome-wide significance the association of loci at FOXE1 with hypothyroidism, and PDE8B, CAPZB and PDE10A with serum TSH. A total of 12 SNPs seemed to explain nearly 7% of the serum TSH variation.

The epidemiology of hyperprolactinaemia over 20 years in the Tayside region of Scotland: the Prolactin Epidemiology, Audit and Research Study (PROLEARS).

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence and incidence of hyperprolactinaemia. Hyperprolactinaemia is a common problem in endocrine practice, but its epidemiology has not been accurately established. STUDY DESIGN: A population-based retrospective follow-up study in Tayside, Scotland (population 400,000), from 1993 to 2013. PATIENTS: Record linkage technology (biochemistry, prescribing, hospital admissions, radiology, mortality and maternity data) was used to identify all patients with a serum prolactin measurement. From these, cases were defined as those with a prolactin greater than 1000 mU/L (47·2 ng/ml) or at least three prescriptions for a dopamine agonist. MEASUREMENTS: Number of prevalent and incident cases of hyperprolactinaemia per calendar year by age, sex and cause of hyperprolactinaemia. RESULTS: A total of 32289 patients had a serum prolactin assay undertaken, of which 1301 had hyperprolactinaemia not related to pregnancy: 25·6% patients had pituitary disorder, 45·9% were drug-induced, 7·5% had macroprolactin and 6·1% had hypothyroidism, leaving 15·0% idiopathic. Over the 20 years, there was a fourfold increase in the number of prolactin assays performed, and prevalence of hyperprolactinaemia was initially 0·02%, but rose to 0·23% by 2013. Overall incidence was 13·8 cases per 100000 person-years (20·6 in 2008-13) and was 3·5 times higher in women than in men. The highest rates were found in women aged 25-44 years. Drug-induced causes tripled during the 20 years. CONCLUSIONS: Rising prevalence of hyperprolactinaemia is probably due to an increased ascertainment and increased incidence of psychoactive drug-related causes. Rates are higher in women than in men but only before the age of 65 years.

Risk of acute kidney injury and survival in patients treated with Metformin: an observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Whether metformin precipitates lactic acidosis in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains under debate. We examined whether metformin use was associated with an increased risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) as a proxy for lactic acidosis and whether survival among those with AKI varied by metformin exposure. METHODS: All individuals with type 2 diabetes and available prescribing data between 2004 and 2013 in Tayside, Scotland were included. The electronic health record for diabetes which includes issued prescriptions was linked to laboratory biochemistry, hospital admission, death register and Scottish Renal Registry data. AKI events were defined using the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes criteria with a rise in serum creatinine of at least  26.5 µmol/l or a rise of greater than 150% from baseline for all hospital admissions. Cox Regression Analyses were used to examine whether person-time periods in which current metformin exposure occurred were associated with an increased rate of first AKI compared to unexposed periods. Cox regression was also used to compare 28 day survival rates following first AKI events in those exposed to metformin versus those not exposed. RESULTS: Twenty-five thousand one-hundred fourty-eight patients were included with a total person-time of 126,904 person years. 4944 (19.7%) people had at least one episode of AKI during the study period. There were 32.4 cases of first AKI/1000pyrs in current metformin exposed person-time periods compared to 44.9 cases/1000pyrs in unexposed periods. After adjustment for age, sex, diabetes duration, calendar time, number of diabetes drugs and baseline renal function, current metformin use was not associated with AKI incidence, HR 0.94 (95% CI 0.87, 1.02, p = 0.15). Among those with incident AKI, being on metformin at admission was associated with a higher rate of survival at 28 days (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.69, 0.94, p = 0.006) even after adjustment for age, sex, pre-admission eGFR, HbA1c and diabetes duration. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to common perceptions, we found no evidence that metformin increases incidence of AKI and was associated with higher 28 day survival following incident AKI.

Diabetic foot infection: Antibiotic therapy and good practice recommendations.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare events related to diabetic foot disease carry a burden of morbidity, mortality and economic cost. Prompt identification of clinical infection with appropriate tissue sampling limits use of broad spectrum empirical antibiotics and improves antibiotic stewardship. Staphylococcus aureus remains the commonest infecting organism and high-dose flucloxacillin remains the empirical antibiotic of choice for antibiotic naïve patients. Barriers to microbe-specific treatment include: adequate tissue sampling, delays in culture results, drug allergies and the emergence of multidrug-resistant organisms which can complicate the choice of targeted antibiotics. Even appropriate antibiotic treatment carries a risk of adverse events including the selection of resistant organisms. AIMS: Multidisciplinary clinical assessment of a diabetic foot infection is supported by the use of appropriate imaging modalities and deep tissue sampling, both of which are encouraged to enhance sampling accuracy. Narrow-spectrum, high dose, short duration antimicrobial therapy is ideal. Further clarity in these areas would be of benefit to clinicians involved in management of diabetic foot infections. METHODS: A combination of literature review with expert discussion was used to generate consensus on management of diabetic foot infection, with a specific focus on empirical antimicrobial therapy. RESULTS: Gram positive organisms represent the commonest pathogens in diabetic foot infection. However there are developing challenges in antimicrobial resistance and antibiotic availability. DISCUSSION: Recommendations for empirical therapy, including the choice of alternative oral agents and use of outpatient antibiotics would be of benefit to those involved in diabetic foot care. CONCLUSION: This paper provides advice on empirical antibiotic therapy that may be used as a framework for local guideline development to support clinicians in the management of diabetic foot infection.

Liothyronine use in a 17 year observational population-based study - the tears study.

OBJECTIVE: To look at adverse outcomes for patients on liothyronine compared to l-thyroxine. Some trials have examined the relative merits of liothyronine but none have looked at adverse outcomes in large numbers. STUDY DESIGN: An observational study of all patients prescribed thyroid hormone replacement in Tayside Scotland (population 400 000) from 1997 to 2014. PATIENTS: A study group of patients having ever used liothyronine (n = 400) was compared to those who had only used l-thyroxine (n = 33 955). All patients were followed up until end-point, death or leaving Tayside. MEASUREMENTS: Mortality rates and admissions with cardiovascular disease, atrial fibrillation, fractures, breast cancer and mental diseases were compared. Incident use of bisphosphonates, statins, antidepressants and antipsychotics was compared. RESULTS: Compared to patients only taking l-thyroxine, those using liothyronine had no increased risk of cardiovascular disease [hazard ratio (HR) 1·04; 95% CI 0·70-1·54], atrial fibrillation (HR 0·91: 0·47-1·75), or fractures (HR 0·79: 0·49-1·27) after adjusting for age. There was no difference in the number of prescriptions for bisphosphonates or statins. There was an increased risk of new prescriptions for antipsychotic medication (HR 2·26: 1·64-3·11 P < 0·0001) which was proportional to the number of liothyronine prescriptions. There was a non-significant trend towards an increase in breast cancer and new use of antidepressant medications. During follow-up, median TSH was higher for patients on l-thyroxine alone (2·08 vs 1·07 mU/L; P < 0·001). CONCLUSION: For patients taking long-term liothyronine we did not identify any additional risk of atrial fibrillation, cardiovascular disease or fractures. There was an increased incident use of antipsychotic medication during follow-up.

When and how to audit a diabetic foot service.

Quality improvement depends on data collection and audit of clinical services to inform clinical improvements. Various steps in the care of the diabetic foot can be used to audit a service but need defined audit standards. A diabetes foot service should have risk stratification system in place that should compare to the population-based figures of 76% having low-risk feet, 17% moderate risk and 7% being at high risk of ulceration. Resources can then be directed towards those with high-risk feet. Prevalence of foot ulceration needs to be audited. Community-based studies give an audit standard of around 2%, with 2 to 9% having had an ulcer at some stage in the past. Amputation rates should be easier to measure, and the best results are reported to be around 1.5-3 per 1000 people with diabetes. This is a useful benchmark figure, and the rate has been shown to decrease by approximately a third over the last 15 years in some centres. Ulceration rates and ulcer healing rates are the ultimate outcome audit measure as they are always undesirable, whilst occasionally for defined individuals, an amputation can be a good outcome. In addition to clinical outcomes, processes of care can be audited such as provision of clinical services, time from new ulcer to be seen by health care professional, inpatient foot care or use of antibiotics. Measurement of clinical services can be a challenge in the diabetic foot, but it is essential if clinical services and patient outcomes are to be improved.

Drugs that interact with levothyroxine: an observational study from the Thyroid Epidemiology, Audit and Research Study (TEARS).

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the extent of drug interactions affecting levothyroxine, using study drugs often co-administered to patients on long-term levothyroxine therapy. DESIGN: A retrospective population analysis linking biochemistry and prescription data between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2012 was used. PATIENTS: The study population was Tayside residents prescribed levothyroxine on at least three occasions, within a six-month period, prior to the start of a study drug. Individuals acted as their own controls pre- and postinitiation of study drug. Overall, 10 999 patients (mean age 58 years, 82% female) being treated with thyroxine were included in the study. MEASUREMENTS: Changes in TSH following initiation of study drug. RESULTS: Iron, calcium, proton pump inhibitors and oestrogen all increased serum TSH concentration: an increase of 0·22 mU/l (P < 0.001), 0·27 mU/l (P < 0·001), 0·12 mU/l (P < 0·01), and 0·08 mU/l (P < 0·007), respectively. For these four study drugs, there was a clinically significant increase of over 5 mU/l in serum TSH, in 7·5%, 4·4%, 5·6% and 4·3% patients, respectively. There was a decrease of 0·17 mU/l (P-value 0.01) in the TSH concentration for those patients on statins. The TSH decreased by 5 mU/l in 3·7% of patients. There was no effect with H2 receptor antagonists or glucocorticoids. CONCLUSION: This large population-based study demonstrates significant interaction between levothyroxine and iron, calcium, proton pump inhibitors, statins and oestrogens. These drugs may reduce the effectiveness of levothyroxine, and patients' TSH concentrations should be carefully monitored.

Progression from gestational diabetes to type 2 diabetes in one region of Scotland: an observational follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate long-term risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) following a diagnosis of gestational diabetes and to identify factors that were associated with increased risk of T2D. METHODS: An observational cohort design was used, following up all women diagnosed with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) attending a Diabetes Antenatal Clinic in the Dundee and Angus region of Scotland between 1994 and 2004 for a subsequent diagnosis of T2D, as recorded on SCI-DC (a comprehensive diabetes clinical information system). RESULTS: There were 164 women in the study who were followed up until 2012. One quarter developed T2D after a pregnancy with GDM in a mean time period of around eight years. Factors associated with a higher risk of developing T2D after GDM were increased weight during pregnancy, use of insulin during pregnancy, higher glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels at diagnosis of GDM, and fasting blood glucose. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest there is a viable time window to prevent progression from GDM to T2D and highlights those women who are at the greatest risk and should therefore be prioritised for preventative intervention.

What predicts adverse outcomes in untreated primary hyperparathyroidism? The Parathyroid Epidemiology and Audit Research Study (PEARS).

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to identify the best biochemical risk factors alongside other factors for predicting adverse outcomes seen in untreated primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT). DESIGN: Population-based cohort study, 1997-2006. SETTING: Tayside, Scotland, UK. PATIENTS: Patients with untreated diagnosed PHPT. OUTCOME MEASURES AND METHODS: Outcomes considered were all-cause mortality, fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD). Models were derived using survival analysis. Potential biochemical predictors tested were baseline serum calcium, parathyroid hormone (PTH), creatinine and alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and other covariates considered were gender, age at diagnosis, deprivation, previous comorbidities and bisphosphonates usage. RESULTS: From 1997 to 2006, 2097 patients (mean age, 68·4 years; 69·9% women) with untreated PHPT were identified with a total follow-up of 7338 person years, in the population of Tayside, Scotland. The median baseline calcium was 2·61 mm, and PTH was 7·2 pm. PTH was the only statistically significant risk factor in all outcomes observed adjusting for other covariates. Serum creatinine and ALP predicted mortality outcomes in the short term (≤3 years), but not long term. Calcium was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality in the short term but had no significant impact on other outcomes. CONCLUSION: Baseline PTH, rather than calcium, best predicts long-term outcomes in untreated PHPT.

Thyroid testing in pregnant women with thyroid dysfunction in Tayside, Scotland: the thyroid epidemiology, audit and research study (TEARS).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the rate of thyroid testing during pregnancy. DESIGN: Population-based, retrospective record-linkage study. SETTING: Health care data on pregnant women in Tayside, Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: All pregnant women who were 18 years and above and who delivered between 1 January 1993 and 31 March 2011 in Tayside were identified. Patients were included in the study if they have had at least three thyroxine prescriptions prior to pregnancy of which at least one prescription was within 6 months prior to pregnancy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) assays performed during pregnancy and the changes in dosage of thyroxine prescribed during pregnancy. RESULTS: We identified 950 pregnancies that had thyroxine prescribed prior to pregnancy. Overall, 96.9% (95% CI: 96-98) of these pregnancies had at least one TSH assay performed during or just prior to pregnancy, with 81.2% (95% CI: 79-84) in the first trimester. The prescription of thyroxine was increased in 60.0% (95% CI: 57-63) at any time during pregnancy and in 34.0% (95% CI: 31-37) of pregnancies during the first trimester. Overall, 60% (95% CI: 57-63) of pregnancies had at least one elevated serum TSH during pregnancy with 55% (95% CI: 51-58) in the first trimester. CONCLUSION: The TSH concentration is raised in many pregnancies in women taking long-term thyroxine.