Modelling the bimodal distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose-rates in Great Britain.

Gamma radiation from naturally occurring sources (including directly ionizing cosmic-rays) is a major component of background radiation. An understanding of the magnitude and variation of doses from these sources is important, and the ability to predict them is required for epidemiological studies. In the present paper, indoor measurements of naturally occurring gamma-rays at representative locations in Great Britain are summarized. It is shown that, although the individual measurement data appear unimodal, the distribution of gamma-ray dose-rates when averaged over relatively small areas, which probably better represents the underlying distribution with inter-house variation reduced, appears bimodal. The dose-rate distributions predicted by three empirical and geostatistical models are also bimodal and compatible with the distributions of the areally averaged dose-rates. The distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose-rates in the UK is compared with those in other countries, which also tend to appear bimodal (or possibly multimodal). The variation of indoor gamma-ray dose-rates with geology, socio-economic status of the area, building type, and period of construction are explored. The factors affecting indoor dose-rates from background gamma radiation are complex and frequently intertwined, but geology, period of construction, and socio-economic status are influential; the first is potentially most influential, perhaps, because it can be used as a general proxy for local building materials. Various statistical models are tested for predicting indoor gamma-ray dose-rates at unmeasured locations. Significant improvements over previous modelling are reported. The dose-rate estimates generated by these models reflect the imputed underlying distribution of dose-rates and provide acceptable predictions at geographical locations without measurements.

Buccal mucosa micronuclei counts in relation to exposure to low dose-rate radiation from the Chornobyl nuclear accident and other medical and occupational radiation exposures.

BACKGROUND: Ionizing radiation is a well-known carcinogen. Chromosome aberrations, and in particular micronuclei represent an early biological predictor of cancer risk. There are well-documented associations of micronuclei with ionizing radiation dose in some radiation-exposed groups, although not all. That associations are not seen in all radiation-exposed groups may be because cells with micronuclei will not generally pass through mitosis, so that radiation-induced micronuclei decay, generally within a few years after exposure. METHODS: Buccal samples from a group of 111 male workers in Ukraine exposed to ionizing radiation during the cleanup activities at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant were studied. Samples were taken between 12 and 18 years after their last radiation exposure from the Chornobyl cleanup. The frequency of binucleated micronuclei was analyzed in relation to estimated bone marrow dose from the cleanup activities along with a number of environmental/occupational risk factors using Poisson regression adjusted for overdispersion. RESULTS: Among the 105 persons without a previous cancer diagnosis, the mean Chornobyl-related dose was 59.5 mSv (range 0-748.4 mSv). There was a borderline significant increase in micronuclei frequency among those reporting work as an industrial radiographer compared with all others, with a relative risk of 6.19 (95% CI 0.90, 31.08, 2-sided p = 0.0729), although this was based on a single person. There was a borderline significant positive radiation dose response for micronuclei frequency with increase in micronuclei per 1000 scored cells per Gy of 3.03 (95% CI -0.78, 7.65, 2-sided p = 0.1170), and a borderline significant reduction of excess relative MN prevalence with increasing time since last exposure (p = 0.0949). There was a significant (p = 0.0388) reduction in MN prevalence associated with bone X-ray exposure, but no significant trend (p = 0.3845) of MN prevalence with numbers of bone X-ray procedures. CONCLUSIONS: There are indications of increasing trends of micronuclei prevalence with Chornobyl-cleanup-associated dose, and indications of reduction in radiation-associated excess prevalence of micronuclei with time after exposure. There are also indications of substantially increased micronuclei associated with work as an industrial radiographer. This analysis adds to the understanding of the long-term effects of low-dose radiation exposures on relevant cellular structures and methods appropriate for long-term radiation biodosimetry.

Breast cancer risk and protracted low-to-moderate dose occupational radiation exposure in the US Radiologic Technologists Cohort, 1983-2008.

BACKGROUND: Although high-dose ionising radiation is associated with increased breast cancer risks, the association with protracted low-dose-rate exposures remains unclear. The US Radiologic Technologist study provides an opportunity to examine the association between low-to-moderate dose radiation and breast cancer incidence and mortality. METHODS: One thousand nine hundred and twenty-two self-reported first primary cancers were diagnosed during 1983-2005 among 66 915 female technologists, and 586 breast cancer deaths occurred during 1983-2008 among 83 538 female cohort members. Occupational breast dose estimates were based on work histories, historical data, and, after the mid-1970s, individual film badge measurements. Excess relative risks were estimated using Poisson regression with birth cohort stratification and adjustment for menopause, reproductive history, and other risk factors. RESULTS: Higher doses were associated with increased breast cancer incidence, with an excess relative risk at 100 mGy of 0.07 (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.005 to 0.19). Associations were strongest for technologists born before 1930 (excess relative risk at 100 mGy=0.16; 95% CI: 0.03-0.39) with similar patterns for mortality among technologists born before 1930. CONCLUSIONS: Occupational radiation to the breast was positively associated with breast cancer risk. The risk was more pronounced for women born before 1930 who began working before 1950 when mean annual doses (37 mGy) were considerably higher than in later years (1.3 mGy). However, because of the uncertainties and possible systematic errors in the occupational dose estimates before 1960, these findings should be treated with caution.

Levels of naturally occurring gamma radiation measured in British homes and their prediction in particular residences.

Gamma radiation from natural sources (including directly ionising cosmic rays) is an important component of background radiation. In the present paper, indoor measurements of naturally occurring gamma rays that were undertaken as part of the UK Childhood Cancer Study are summarised, and it is shown that these are broadly compatible with an earlier UK National Survey. The distribution of indoor gamma-ray dose rates in Great Britain is approximately normal with mean 96 nGy/h and standard deviation 23 nGy/h. Directly ionising cosmic rays contribute about one-third of the total. The expanded dataset allows a more detailed description than previously of indoor gamma-ray exposures and in particular their geographical variation. Various strategies for predicting indoor natural background gamma-ray dose rates were explored. In the first of these, a geostatistical model was fitted, which assumes an underlying geologically determined spatial variation, superimposed on which is a Gaussian stochastic process with Matérn correlation structure that models the observed tendency of dose rates in neighbouring houses to correlate. In the second approach, a number of dose-rate interpolation measures were first derived, based on averages over geologically or administratively defined areas or using distance-weighted averages of measurements at nearest-neighbour points. Linear regression was then used to derive an optimal linear combination of these interpolation measures. The predictive performances of the two models were compared via cross-validation, using a randomly selected 70 % of the data to fit the models and the remaining 30 % to test them. The mean square error (MSE) of the linear-regression model was lower than that of the Gaussian-Matérn model (MSE 378 and 411, respectively). The predictive performance of the two candidate models was also evaluated via simulation; the OLS model performs significantly better than the Gaussian-Matérn model.

Residential mobility and associated factors in relation to the assessment of exposure to naturally occurring radiation in studies of childhood cancer.

Migration, that is the study subjects moving from one residential address to another, is a complication for epidemiological studies where exposures to the agent of interest depend on place of residence [corrected]. In this paper we explore migration in cases from a large British case-control study of childhood cancer and natural background radiation. We find that 44% of cases had not moved house between birth and diagnosis, and about two-thirds were living within 2 km of their residence at birth. The estimated dose at the diagnosis address was strongly correlated with that at the birth address, suggesting that use of just the birth address in this case-control study does not lead to serious bias in risk estimates. We also review other individual-based studies of naturally occurring radiation, with particular emphasis on those from Great Britain. Interview-based case-control and cohort studies can potentially establish full residential histories for study subjects and make direct measurements of radiation levels in the dwellings in question. However, in practice, because of study size and difficulties in obtaining adequate response rates, interview-based studies generally do not use full residential histories, and a substantial proportion of dose estimates often derive from models rather than direct measurements. More seriously, problems of incomplete response may lead to bias, not just to loss of power. Record-based case-control studies, which do not require direct contact with study subjects, avoid such problems, but at the expense of having only model-based exposure estimates that use databases of measurements.

Breast cancer risk after radiotherapy for heritable and non-heritable retinoblastoma: a US-UK study.

BACKGROUND: Retinoblastoma is a rare childhood eye cancer caused by germline or somatic mutations in the RB1 gene. Previous studies observed elevated breast cancer risk among retinoblastoma survivors. However, there has been no research on breast cancer risk in relation to radiation (primarily scatter radiation from the primary treatment) and genetic susceptibility of retinoblastoma survivors. METHODS: Two groups of retinoblastoma survivors from the US and UK were selected, and breast cancer risk analysed using a case-control methodology, nesting within the respective cohorts, matching on heritability (that is to say, having bilateral retinoblastoma or being unilateral cases with at least one relative with retinoblastoma), and using exact statistical methods. There were a total of 31 cases and 77 controls. RESULTS: Overall there was no significant variation of breast cancer risk with dose (P>0.5). However, there was a pronounced and significant (P=0.047) increase in the risk of breast cancer with increasing radiation dose for non-heritable retinoblastoma patients and a slight and borderline significant (P=0.072) decrease in risk of breast cancer with increasing radiation dose for heritable retinoblastoma patients, implying significant (P=0.024) heterogeneity in radiation risk between the heritable and non-heritable retinoblastoma groups; this was unaffected by the blindness status. There was no significant effect of any type of alkylating-agent chemotherapy on breast cancer risk (P>0.5). CONCLUSIONS: There is significant radiation-related risk of breast cancer for non-heritable retinoblastoma survivors but no excess risk for heritable retinoblastoma survivors, and no significant risk overall. However, these results are based on very small numbers of cases; therefore, they must be interpreted with caution.

The Evidence for Excess Risk of Cancer and Non-Cancer Disease at Low Doses and Dose Rates.

The question of whether there are excess radiation-associated health risks at low dose is controversial. We present evidence of excess cancer risks in a number of (largely pediatrically or in utero exposed) groups exposed to low doses of radiation (<0.1 Gy). Moreover, the available data on biological mechanisms do not provide support for the idea of a low-dose threshold or hormesis for any of these endpoints. There are emerging data suggesting risks of cardiovascular disease and cataract at low doses, but this is less well established. This large body of evidence does not suggest and, indeed, is not statistically compatible with any very large threshold in dose (>10 mGy), or with possible beneficial effects from exposures. The presented data suggest that exposure to low-dose radiation causes excess cancer risks and quite possibly also excess risks of various non-cancer endpoints.

THYROID SCREENING AND RELIABILITY OF RADIATION THYROID DOSES FOR THE BELARUSIAN IN UTERO COHORT.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the status and results of thyroid disease screening and assessment of reliability of radiationthyroid doses in the Belarusian in utero cohort of 2,965 individuals exposed to Chernobyl (Chornobyl) fallout. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thyroid screening examinations are currently underway including thyroid palpation by anendocrinologist, ultrasonographic examination by an ultrasonographer and analysis of blood samples for diagnosisof hypo- and hyperthyroidism, autoimmune thyroiditis, thyroid function tests (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH],thyroxine [T4], thyroid peroxidase antibody [anti-TPO], and thyroglobulin antibodies [anti-TG]). Reliability of (i)information from 780 pairs of questionnaires obtained during the first and second interviews of the mothers and (ii)thyroid doses, which were calculated for the cohort members using this information, is evaluated. RESULTS: As of 15 August 2021, 1,267 in utero exposed study subjects had been screened. A single thyroid nodule wasdiagnosed in 167 persons (13.2 % of the total) and multiple thyroid nodules in 101 persons (8.0 %): 189 (14.9 %)persons had nodules detected for the first time at the screening while 79 (6.2 %) persons had nodules detected pre-viously (pre-screening nodules). Fifty-nine out of 268 subjects (22.0 %) with a suspicious thyroid nodule werereferred to fine needle aspiration biopsy, and among them 33 (55.9 %) were biopsied. Reasonable agreement wasobserved for modelqbased doses calculated for the Belarusian in utero cohort members using data from the two inter-views (Spearman's rank-correlation coefficient rs = 0.74, p < 0.001), while measurementqbased doses yielded almost per-fect agreement (rs = 0.99, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: During the thyroid screening, at least one thyroid nodule was identified in 268 of 1,267 (21.2 %) inutero exposed cohort members. Seven thyroid cancer cases were identified in the cohort, including 5 pre-screeningcases and 2 cases detected during the screening. Ongoing research on this unique cohort will provide importantinformation on adverse health effects following prenatal and postnatal exposure to radioiodine and radiocesium iso-topes, for which available epidemiological data are scant.

Do non-targeted effects increase or decrease low dose risk in relation to the linear-non-threshold (LNT) model?

In this paper we review the evidence for departure from linearity for malignant and non-malignant disease and in the light of this assess likely mechanisms, and in particular the potential role for non-targeted effects. Excess cancer risks observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in many medically and occupationally exposed groups exposed at low or moderate doses are generally statistically compatible. For most cancer sites the dose-response in these groups is compatible with linearity over the range observed. The available data on biological mechanisms do not provide general support for the idea of a low dose threshold or hormesis. This large body of evidence does not suggest, indeed is not statistically compatible with, any very large threshold in dose for cancer, or with possible hormetic effects, and there is little evidence of the sorts of non-linearity in response implied by non-DNA-targeted effects. There are also excess risks of various types of non-malignant disease in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in other groups. In particular, elevated risks of cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and digestive disease are observed in the A-bomb data. In contrast with cancer, there is much less consistency in the patterns of risk between the various exposed groups; for example, radiation-associated respiratory and digestive diseases have not been seen in these other (non-A-bomb) groups. Cardiovascular risks have been seen in many exposed populations, particularly in medically exposed groups, but in contrast with cancer there is much less consistency in risk between studies: risks per unit dose in epidemiological studies vary over at least two orders of magnitude, possibly a result of confounding and effect modification by well known (but unobserved) risk factors. In the absence of a convincing mechanistic explanation of epidemiological evidence that is, at present, less than persuasive, a cause-and-effect interpretation of the reported statistical associations for cardiovascular disease is unreliable but cannot be excluded. Inflammatory processes are the most likely mechanism by which radiation could modify the atherosclerotic disease process. If there is to be modification by low doses of ionizing radiation of cardiovascular disease through this mechanism, a role for non-DNA-targeted effects cannot be excluded.

Review and meta-analysis of epidemiological associations between low/moderate doses of ionizing radiation and circulatory disease risks, and their possible mechanisms.

Although the link between high doses of ionizing radiation and damage to the heart and coronary arteries has been well established for some time, the association between lower-dose exposures and late occurring cardiovascular disease has only recently begun to emerge, and is still controversial. In this paper, we extend an earlier systematic review by Little et al. on the epidemiological evidence for associations between low and moderate doses of ionizing radiation exposure and late occurring blood circulatory system disease. Excess relative risks per unit dose in epidemiological studies vary over at least two orders of magnitude, possibly a result of confounding and effect modification by well-known (but unobserved) risk factors, and there is statistically significant (p < 0.00001) heterogeneity between the risks. This heterogeneity is reduced, but remains significant, if adjustments are made for the effects of fractionated delivery or if there is stratification by endpoint (cardiovascular disease vs. stroke, morbidity vs. mortality). One possible biological mechanism is damage to endothelial cells and subsequent induction of an inflammatory response, although it seems unlikely that this would extend to low-dose and low-dose-rate exposure. A recent paper of Little et al. proposed an arguably more plausible mechanism for fractionated low-dose effects, based on monocyte cell killing in the intima. Although the predictions of the model are consistent with the epidemiological data, the experimental predictions made have yet to be tested. Further epidemiological and biological evidence will allow a firmer conclusion to be drawn.

A systematic review of epidemiological associations between low and moderate doses of ionizing radiation and late cardiovascular effects, and their possible mechanisms.

Little, M. P., Tawn, E. J., Tzoulaki, I., Wakeford, R., Hildebrandt, G., Paris, F., Tapio, S. and Elliott, P. A Systematic Review of Epidemiological Associations Between Low and Moderate Doses of Ionizing Radiation and Late Cardiovascular Effects, and Their Possible Mechanisms. Radiat. Res. 169, 99-109 (2008). The link between high doses of ionizing radiation and damage to the heart and coronary arteries is established. In this paper, we systematically review the epidemiological evidence for associations between low and moderate doses (<5 Gy) of ionizing radiation and late-occurring cardiovascular disease. Risks per unit dose in epidemiological studies vary over at least two orders of magnitude, possibly a result of confounding factors. An examination of possible biological mechanisms indicates that the most likely causative effect of radiation exposure is damage to endothelial cells and subsequent induction of an inflammatory response, although it seems unlikely that this would extend to low-dose and low-dose-rate exposure. However, a role for somatic mutation has been proposed that would indicate a stochastic effect. In the absence of a convincing mechanistic explanation of epidemiological evidence that is less than persuasive at present, a cause-and-effect interpretation of the reported statistical associations cannot be reliably inferred, although neither can it be reliably excluded. Further epidemiological and biological evidence will allow a firmer conclusion to be drawn.

New models for evaluation of radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk and its uncertainty employed in the UNSCEAR 2006 report.

Generalized relative and absolute risk models are fitted to the latest Japanese atomic bomb survivor solid cancer and leukemia mortality data (through 2000), with the latest (DS02) dosimetry, by classical (regression calibration) and Bayesian techniques, taking account of errors in dose estimates and other uncertainties. Linear-quadratic and linear-quadratic-exponential models are fitted and used to assess risks for contemporary populations of China, Japan, Puerto Rico, the U.S. and the UK. Many of these models are the same as or very similar to models used in the UNSCEAR 2006 report. For a test dose of 0.1 Sv, the solid cancer mortality for a UK population using the generalized linear-quadratic relative risk model is estimated as 5.4% Sv(-1) [90% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) 3.1, 8.0]. At 0.1 Sv, leukemia mortality for a UK population using the generalized linear-quadratic relative risk model is estimated as 0.50% Sv(-1) (90% BCI 0.11, 0.97). Risk estimates varied little between populations; at 0.1 Sv the central estimates ranged from 3.7 to 5.4% Sv(-1) for solid cancers and from 0.4 to 0.6% Sv(-1) for leukemia. Analyses using regression calibration techniques yield central estimates of risk very similar to those for the Bayesian approach. The central estimates of population risk were similar for the generalized absolute risk model and the relative risk model. Linear-quadratic-exponential models predict lower risks (at least at low test doses) and appear to fit as well, although for other (theoretical) reasons we favor the simpler linear-quadratic models.

Leukaemia following childhood radiation exposure in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in medically exposed groups.

Incidence and mortality risks of radiation-associated leukaemia are surveyed in the Japanese atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors exposed in early childhood and in utero. Leukaemia incidence and mortality risks are also surveyed in 16 other studies of persons who received appreciable doses of ionizing radiation in the course of treatment in childhood and for whom there is adequate dosimetry and cancer incidence or mortality follow-up. Relative risks tend to be lower in the medical series than in the Japanese A-bomb survivors. The relative risks in the medical studies tend to diminish with increasing average therapy dose. After taking account of cell sterilisation and dose fractionation, the apparent differences between the relative risks for leukaemia in the Japanese A-bomb survivors and in the medical series largely disappear. This suggests that cell sterilisation largely accounts for the discrepancy between the relative risks in the Japanese data and the medical studies. Excess absolute risk has also been assessed in four studies, and there is found to be more variability in this measure than in excess relative risk. In particular, there is a substantial difference between the absolute risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivor data and those in three other (European) populations. In summary, the relative risks of leukaemia in studies of persons exposed to appreciable doses of ionizing radiation in the course of treatment for a variety of malignant and non-malignant conditions in childhood are generally less than those in the Japanese A-bomb survivor data. The effects of cell sterilisation can largely explain the discrepancy between the Japanese and the medical series.

Evidence for dose and dose rate effects in human and animal radiation studies.

For stochastic effects such as cancer, linear-quadratic models of dose are often used to extrapolate from the experience of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors to estimate risks from low doses and low dose rates. The low dose extrapolation factor (LDEF), which consists of the ratio of the low dose slope (as derived via fitting a linear-quadratic model) to the slope of the straight line fitted to a specific dose range, is used to derive the degree of overestimation (if LDEF > 1) or underestimation (if LDEF < 1) of low dose risk by linear extrapolation from effects at higher doses. Likewise, a dose rate extrapolation factor (DREF) can be defined, consisting of the ratio of the low dose slopes at high and low dose rates. This paper reviews a variety of human and animal data for cancer and non-cancer endpoints to assess evidence for curvature in the dose response (i.e. LDEF) and modifications of the dose response by dose rate (i.e. DREF). The JANUS mouse data imply that LDEF is approximately 0.2-0.8 and DREF is approximately 1.2-2.3 for many tumours following gamma exposure, with corresponding figures of approximately 0.1-0.9 and 0.0-0.2 following neutron exposure. This paper also cursorily reviews human data which allow direct estimates of low dose and low dose rate risk.

Spatial prediction of naturally occurring gamma radiation in Great Britain.

Gamma radiation from natural sources is an important component of background radiation, and correlates with childhood leukaemia risk in Great Britain. The geographic variation of indoor gamma radiation dose-rates in Great Britain is explored using various geo-statistical methods. A multi-resolution Gaussian-process model using radial basis functions with 2, 4, or 8 components, is fitted via maximum likelihood, and a non-spatial model is also used, fitted by ordinary least squares. Because of the dataset size (N = 10,199), four other parametric spatial models are fitted by variogram-fitting. A randomly selected 70:30 split is used for fitting:validation. The models are evaluated based on their predictive performance as measured by Mean Absolute Error, Mean Squared Error, as well as Pearson correlation and rank-correlation between predicted and actual dose-rates. Each of the four parametric models (Matérn, Gaussian, Bessel, Spherical) fitted the empirical variogram well, and yielded similar predictions at >50 km separation, although with more substantial differences in predicted variograms at <50 km. The multi-resolution Gaussian-process model with 8 components had the best predictive accuracy among the models considered. The Spherical, Bessel, Matérn, Gaussian and ordinary least squares models had progressively worse predictive performance, the ordinary least squares model being particularly poor in this respect.

Dose-rate effects in radiation biology and radiation protection.

Quantification of biological effects (cancer, other diseases, and cell damage) associated with exposure to ionising radiation has been a major issue for the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) since its foundation in 1928. While there is a wealth of information on the effects on human health for whole-body doses above approximately 100 mGy, the effects associated with doses below 100 mGy are still being investigated and debated intensively. The current radiological protection approach, proposed by ICRP for workers and the public, is largely based on risks obtained from high-dose and high-dose-rate studies, such as the Japanese Life Span Study on atomic bomb survivors. The risk coefficients obtained from these studies can be reduced by the dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) to account for the assumed lower effectiveness of low-dose and low-dose-rate exposures. The 2007 ICRP Recommendations continue to propose a value of 2 for DDREF, while other international organisations suggest either application of different values or abandonment of the factor. This paper summarises the current status of discussions, and highlights issues that are relevant to reassessing the magnitude and application of DDREF.

Association between microfilarial load and excess mortality in onchocerciasis: an epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: Infection with the parasitic filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus can lead to severe visual impairment and ultimately blindness. Excess mortality has been noted among people with onchocerciasis, but it is not clear whether this effect is entirely due to blindness, or mediated by some more direct effects of the infection. METHODS: We assessed the relations between infection with O volvulus, visual acuity, and host mortality with data obtained by the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa from 2315 villages in 11 countries. FINDINGS: 297,756 people were eligible for follow-up, and accumulated 2,579449 person-years of follow-up from 1971 through 2001. 24,517 people died during this period; 1283 (5.2%) of these deaths were due to onchocerciasis. Mortality of the human host was significantly and positively associated with increasing microfilarial burden (p<0.00001), but not with blindness after adjustment for microfilarial load and other variables. Overall, after adjustment for microfilarial load and other variables, female individuals had a risk of death about 7.5% lower than males (p<0.00001). Rates of mortality peaked in the mid 1980s but generally decreased thereafter. INTERPRETATION: We have shown a direct relation between O volvulus microfilarial load and host mortality in a comprehensive dataset and in both sexes.

Curvilinearity in the dose-response curve for cancer in Japanese atomic bomb survivors.

Recently released data on cancer incidence in Japanese atomic bomb survivors are analyzed using a variety of relative risk models that take account of errors in estimates of dose to assess the dose response at low doses. If a relative risk model with a threshold (the dose response is assumed linear above the threshold) is fitted to solid cancer data, a threshold of more than about 0.2 Sv is inconsistent with the data, whereas these data are consistent with there being no threshold. Among solid cancer subtypes there is strong evidence for a possible dose threshold only for nonmelanoma skin cancer. If a relative risk model with a threshold (the dose response is assumed linear above the threshold) is fitted to the leukemia data, a threshold of more than about 0.3 Sv is inconsistent with the data. In contrast to the estimates for the threshold level for solid cancer data, the best estimate for the threshold level in the leukemia data is significantly different from zero even when allowance is made for a possible quadratic term in the dose response, albeit at borderline levels of statistical significance (p = 0.04). There is little evidence for curvature in the leukemia dose response from 0.2 Sv upwards. However, possible underestimation of the errors in the estimates of the dose threshold as a result of confounding and uncertainties not taken into account in the analysis, together with the lack of biological plausibility of a threshold, makes interpretation of this finding questionable.

The bystander effect in C3H 10T cells and radon-induced lung cancer.

Little, M. P. and Wakeford, R. The Bystander Effect in C3H 10T(1/2) Cells and Radon-Induced Lung Cancer. Radiat. Res. 156, 695-699 (2001).Bystander effects, whereby cells that are not directly exposed to radiation exhibit adverse biological effects, have been observed in a number of experimental systems, including C3H 10T(1/2) cells exposed to alpha-particle radiation. The bystander effect implies that risks from exposure to low doses of radiation obtained by linear extrapolation from data for high-dose exposures might be substantial underestimates. The best estimate of the ratio of the lung cancer risk among persons exposed to low (residential) doses of radon daughters to that among persons (underground miners) exposed to high doses of radon daughters is in the range of 2.4-4.0, with an upper 95% confidence limit of about 14. Assuming that the bystander effect observed in the in vitro C3H 10T(1/2) cell system applies to human lung cells in vivo, these epidemiological data imply that the central estimate of the number of neighboring cells that can contribute to the bystander effect is between 0 and 1, with an upper 95% confidence limit of about 7. As a consequence, the bystander effect observed in the experimental C3H 10T(1/2) cell system probably does not play a large part in the process of radon-induced lung carcinogenesis in humans.

Comparison of breast cancer incidence in the Massachusetts tuberculosis fluoroscopy cohort and in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors.

Breast cancer has occurred in excess among women exposed briefly to atomic bomb radiation and among those exposed repeatedly over many years to medical radiation for tuberculosis (TB). The excess relative risk of breast cancer incidence in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, however, is significantly higher (two-sided P = 0.04) than that in the Massachusetts TB fluoroscopy patients. The best estimate of the ratio between the excess relative risk coefficients for the Japanese and Massachusetts cohorts is 2.11 (95% CI 1.05, 4.95). However, this higher relative excess risk is attributable to the lower baseline risk of breast cancer among Japanese women compared with the Massachusetts women, and the excess absolute breast cancer risks in the two data sets are statistically indistinguishable (two-sided P = 0.32). The best estimate of the ratio between the excess absolute risk coefficients among Japanese and Massachusetts women is 0.73 (95% CI 0.41, 1.44). After childhood exposures, an early onset of radiation-induced breast cancer was seen among Japanese atomic bomb survivors but not among the Massachusetts women. There are some indications (two-sided P = 0.04) of differences in the patterns of risk over time since exposure between these groups exposed in childhood. However, in general there are no marked differences between the Massachusetts and Japanese data sets in the age and time distribution of risk of radiation-induced breast cancer. These data provide little evidence for a reduction of breast cancer risk after fractionated irradiation.