ABSTRACT
Quantitative adverse outcome pathways (qAOPs) describe the response-response relationships that link the magnitude and/or duration of chemical interaction with a specific molecular target to the probability and/or severity of the resulting apical-level toxicity of regulatory relevance. The present study developed the first qAOP for latent toxicities showing that early life exposure adversely affects health at adulthood. Specifically, a qAOP for embryonic activation of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor 2 (AHR2) of fishes by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) leading to decreased fecundity of females at adulthood was developed by building on existing qAOPs for (1) activation of the AHR leading to early life mortality in birds and fishes, and (2) inhibition of cytochrome P450 aromatase activity leading to decreased fecundity in fishes. Using zebrafish (Danio rerio) as a model species and benzo[a]pyrene as a model PAH, three linked quantitative relationships were developed: (1) plasma estrogen in adult females as a function of embryonic exposure, (2) plasma vitellogenin in adult females as a function of plasma estrogen, and (3) fecundity of adult females as a function of plasma vitellogenin. A fourth quantitative relationship was developed for early life mortality as a function of sensitivity to activation of the AHR2 in a standardized in vitro AHR transactivation assay to integrate toxic equivalence calculations that would allow prediction of effects of exposure to untested PAHs. The accuracy of the predictions from the resulting qAOP were evaluated using experimental data from zebrafish exposed as embryos to another PAH, benzo[k]fluoranthene. The qAOP developed in the present study demonstrates the potential of the AOP framework in enabling consideration of latent toxicities in quantitative ecological risk assessments and regulatory decision-making. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:2145-2156. © 2024 SETAC.