Perceived effects of COVID-19 restrictions on smallholder farmers: Evidence from seven lower- and middle-income countries.

CONTEXT: The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented global disruption and continues to wreak havoc. Dire predictions were made about the risks to smallholder farmers in lower- and middle- income, but hard data have been lacking. We present the results from 9201 interviews with smallholder farmers from seven countries. OBJECTIVE: The objectives are to describe: i) how farmers perceive the key effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures on livelihoods and food security; ii) the effects on agricultural activities; iii) the coping strategies households deployed. METHODS: Household surveys were conducted as part of ongoing monitoring programs during the latter half of 2020. Sites in seven countries were covered: Burundi; Kenya; Rwanda; Tanzania; Uganda; Zambia; and Vietnam. Findings are representative of smallholder farmers across multiple districts per country. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The effects of the COVID-19 containment measures were widespread and often perceived to be severe. Food purchase, off-farm income, sale of farm produce, and access to crop inputs were all affected. In locations under more stringent restrictions during the time of the survey, up to 80% of households had to reduce food consumption and/or variety. Almost all households with off-farm incomes reported reductions, by half on average. A half to three-quarters of households (depending on the location) with income from farm sales reported losses compared to the pre-pandemic situation. In locations with more relaxed containment measures in place during the time of the survey, less frequent and less severe economic and food security outcomes were perceived by the respondent, with around 20% of households reporting negative outcomes. Mobility restrictions, reduced market access, crashes in sale price for agricultural goods, and soaring prices for food purchase were key factors. Sale prices generally dropped for all agricultural products in any given location, and affected not only high-value perishable products, but also staple crops such as maize and cassava. Depending on the location, between 30% and 90% of the households applied coping strategies in response to the pandemic during 2020. There was an almost complete absence of official aid amongst households interviewed. SIGNIFICANCE: Our results raise the thorny issue of how best to balance containment of disease against the wellbeing of the vulnerable rural population in lower- and middle-income countries. There is a risk that the buffering capacity of rural people will become exhausted. Possible policy measures to limit negative outcomes include i) tiered mobility restrictions with travel allowed for economic reasons; ii) short-term price guarantee schemes to stabilise the food system; iii) direct aid; iv) the timely re-installation of distribution channels for agricultural inputs.

Rumen liquor from slaughtered cattle as inoculum for feed evaluation.

Use of nonlinear mathematical models has been majorly based on in vitro gas production (GP) data generated when substrates are incubated with rumen liquor from fistulated steers. However, existing evidence suggests that rumen liquor from slaughtered cattle of unknown dietary history also generates quantifiable in vitro GP data. Fitting and description of GP data obtained from 4 diets incubated with rumen liquor from slaughtered cattle was evaluated using single-pool exponential model with discrete lag time (EXPL), logistic (LOG), Groot's (GRTS) and Gompertz (GOMP) models. Diets were formulated by varying proportions of Rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) hay and a concentrate mixed on dry matter basis to be: 1,000 g/kg Rhodes grass hay (RGH) and 0 of the concentrate (D1), 900 g/kg RGH and 100 g/kg concentrate (D2), 800 g/kg RGH and 200 g/kg concentrate (D3), 700 g/kg RGH and 300 g/kg concentrate (D4). Dietary kinetics for the models were determined by measuring GP at 2, 4, 8, 10, 18, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96 and 120 h. Model comparison was based on derived GP kinetics, graphical analysis of observed versus predicted GP profiles plus residual distribution and goodness-of-fit from analysis of root mean square error (RMSE), adjusted coefficient of determination (Adj-R2) and Akaike's information criterion (AIC). Asymptotic GP, half-life and fractional rate of GP differed (P < 0.001) among the 4 models. The RMSE, Adj-R2 and AIC ranged from 1.555 to 4.429, 0.906 to 0.984 and 2.452 to 15.874, respectively, for all diets compared across the 4 models. Based on the goodness-of-fit statistical criterion, GP profiles of D1 were more appropriately fitted and described by GRTS and GOMP than the EXPL and LOG models. The GRTS model had the lowest AIC value for D2 (2.452). Although GRTS model had the most homogenous residual dispersion for the 4 diets, all the 4 models exhibited a sigmoidal behavior. Therefore, rumen liquor from slaughtered cattle of unknown dietary history can be used to derive nutritionally important feed parameters, but choice of the most appropriate model should be made based on fitting criteria and dietary substrates incubated.