Effectiveness and optimal duration of early intervention treatment in adult-onset psychosis: a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Contrasting the well-described effects of early intervention (EI) services for youth-onset psychosis, the potential benefits of the intervention for adult-onset psychosis are uncertain. This paper aims to examine the effectiveness of EI on functioning and symptomatic improvement in adult-onset psychosis, and the optimal duration of the intervention. METHODS: 360 psychosis patients aged 26-55 years were randomized to receive either standard care (SC, n = 120), or case management for two (2-year EI, n = 120) or 4 years (4-year EI, n = 120) in a 4-year rater-masked, parallel-group, superiority, randomized controlled trial of treatment effectiveness (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00919620). Primary (i.e. social and occupational functioning) and secondary outcomes (i.e. positive and negative symptoms, and quality of life) were assessed at baseline, 6-month, and yearly for 4 years. RESULTS: Compared with SC, patients with 4-year EI had better Role Functioning Scale (RFS) immediate [interaction estimate = 0.008, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.001-0.014, p = 0.02] and extended social network (interaction estimate = 0.011, 95% CI = 0.004-0.018, p = 0.003) scores. Specifically, these improvements were observed in the first 2 years. Compared with the 2-year EI group, the 4-year EI group had better RFS total (p = 0.01), immediate (p = 0.01), and extended social network (p = 0.05) scores at the fourth year. Meanwhile, the 4-year (p = 0.02) and 2-year EI (p = 0.004) group had less severe symptoms than the SC group at the first year. CONCLUSIONS: Specialized EI treatment for psychosis patients aged 26-55 should be provided for at least the initial 2 years of illness. Further treatment up to 4 years confers little benefits in this age range over the course of the study.

Barriers to preventive care utilization among Hong Kong community-dwelling older people and their views on using financial incentives to improve preventive care utilization.

BACKGROUND: Financial incentive is increasingly used as a mean to promote preventive care utilization (PCU), but the current Elderly Health Care Voucher Scheme (EHCVS) in Hong Kong is ineffective for encouraging PCU. OBJECTIVE: To explore the older people's barriers to PCU and their views on financial incentive, including EHCVS, for improving private PCU. DESIGN AND SETTING: Focus-group discussions were conducted in community elderly centres located in five districts of Hong Kong. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling older people aged 60 years or above. RESULTS: Lack of understanding about preventive care and low awareness of the need for preventive care were key factors for the low motivation for PCU. Uncertainty over the level of service fee charged and concerns over service quality hindered the choice of using the private service providers under the current EHCVS. Financial incentives specific for preventive care services were thought to be cues to actions and guides for service promotion. However, some flexibility in service coverage and a set time limit of the financial incentives were preferred to accommodate individual needs. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from promoting knowledge of preventive care, official monitoring for service fee and quality is important for empowering older people to choose private service providers for preventive care. Financial incentives for preventive care services should be more specific to cue service promotion and uptake of preventive care while maintaining flexibility to accommodate individual needs. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Participants were recruited using purposive sampling with the coordination of community elderly centres. Data were analysed using thematic coding.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of a Patient Empowerment Programme for type 2 diabetes mellitus in primary care.

AIM: To evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of a Patient Empowerment Programme (PEP) for type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) in primary care. MATERIALS AND METHODS: PEP participants were subjects with type 2 DM who enrolled into PEP in addition to enrolment in the Risk Assessment and Management Programme for DM (RAMP-DM) at primary care level. The comparison group was subjects who only enrolled into RAMP-DM without participating in PEP (non-PEP). A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a patient-level simulation model (with fixed-time increments) from a societal perspective. We incorporated the empirical data from a matched cohort of PEP and non-PEP groups to simulate lifetime costs and outcomes for subjects with DM with or without PEP. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) in terms of cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained were calculated. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted with results presented as a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. RESULTS: With an assumption that the PEP effect would last for 5 years as shown by the empirical data, the incremental cost per subject was US $197 and the incremental QALYs gained were 0.06 per subject, which resulted in an ICER of US $3290 per QALY gained compared with no PEP across the lifetime. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed 66% likelihood that PEP is cost-effective compared with non-PEP when willingness-to-pay for a QALY is ≥US $46 153 (based on per capita GDP 2017). CONCLUSIONS: Based on this carefully measured cost of PEP and its potentially large benefits, PEP could be highly cost-effective from a societal perspective as an adjunct intervention for patients with DM.

Economic Costs Attributable to Smoking in Hong Kong in 2011: A Possible Increase From 1998.

BACKGROUND: Reduction in smoking prevalence does not necessarily reduce the costs of smoking as evidence shows in developed countries. We provide up-to-date estimates for direct and indirect costs attributable to smoking in Hong Kong in 2011 and compare with our 1998 estimates. METHODS: We took a societal perspective to include lives and life years lost, health care costs and time lost from work in the costing. We followed guidelines on estimating costs of active smoking for those aged 35 years or above (35+) and costs due to second-hand smoking (SHS) exposure for 35+, infants aged 12 months and under and children aged 15 and below. All costs are in US dollars. RESULTS: We estimated that 6154 deaths among 35+ in Hong Kong in 2011 were attributable to active smoking, an increase of 10% from 1998. Besides, 672 deaths were attributable to SHS exposure, that is, 10% of the total 6826 smoking-attributable deaths. The estimate of productive life lost due to deaths from active smoking by those aged under 65 years in 2011 was $166 million, an increase of about 4% over the estimate in 1998. Our conservative estimate of the annual tobacco-related disease cost in 2011 was $716 million which accounted for 0.3% of GDP. If we added the value of attributable lives lost, the annual cost would be $4.7 billion. CONCLUSION: Despite the reduction in smoking prevalence, smoking-attributable disease still imposes a substantial economic burden on Hong Kong society. These findings support more stringent and effective tobacco control legislation, policies, and measures. IMPLICATIONS: Current evidence shows reduction in smoking prevalence does not necessarily reduce the economic costs of smoking. Most studies in developed countries employed a societal perspective, including costs of productivity loss and indirect costs, but not all studies estimated costs associated with second-hand smoking (SHS). The present study estimated the total costs of smoking in Hong Kong including direct and indirect costs attributable to active smoking and to SHS exposure. Our study confirms the pattern of smoking epidemic in developed countries, forewarns the increasing economic burdens from tobacco, and provides East Asian countries with a prediction of their own future costs.

Mothers' Preferences and Willingness to Pay for Human Papillomavirus Vaccination for Their Daughters: A Discrete Choice Experiment in Hong Kong.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the preference of mothers in Hong Kong and their willingness to pay (WTP) for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination for their daughters. METHOD: A discrete choice experiment survey with a two-alternative study design was developed. Data were collected from pediatric specialist outpatient clinics from 482 mothers with daughters aged between 8 and 17 years. Preferences of the four attributes of HPV vaccines (protection against cervical cancer, protection duration, side effects, and out-of-pocket costs) were evaluated. The marginal and overall WTP were estimated using multinomial logistic regression. A subgroup analysis was conducted to explore the impact of socioeconomic factors on mothers' WTP. RESULTS: Side effects, protection against cervical cancer, protection duration, and out-of-pocket cost determined the decision to receive or not receive the vaccine. All attributes had a statistically significant effect on the preference of and the WTP for the vaccine. Maximum WTP for ideal vaccines (i.e., 100% protection, lifetime protection duration, and 0% side effects) was HK$8976 (US $1129). The estimated WTP for vaccines currently available was HK$1620 (US $208), lower than the current market price. Among those who had a monthly household income of more than HK$100,000 (US $12,821), the WTP for vaccines currently offered was higher than the market price. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides new data on how features of the HPV vaccine are viewed and valued by mothers by determining their perception of ideal or improved and current vaccine technologies. These findings could contribute to future policies on the improvement of HPV vaccine and be useful for the immunization service in Hong Kong.

Five-year cost-effectiveness of the Patient Empowerment Programme (PEP) for type 2 diabetes mellitus in primary care.

This study evaluated the short-term cost-effectiveness of the Patient Empowerment Programme (PEP) for diabetes mellitus (DM) in Hong Kong. Propensity score matching was used to select a matched group of PEP and non-PEP subjects. A societal perspective was adopted to estimate the cost of PEP. Outcome measures were the cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality and diabetic complication over a 5-year follow-up period and the number needed to treat (NNT) to avoid 1 event. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of cost per event avoided was calculated using the PEP cost per subject multiplied by the NNT. The PEP cost per subject from the societal perspective was US$247. There was a significantly lower cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality (2.9% vs 4.6%, P < .001), any DM complication (9.5% vs 10.8%, P = .001) and CVD events (6.8% vs 7.6%, P = .018), in the PEP group. The costs per death from any cause, DM complication or case of CVD avoided were US$14 465, US$19 617 and US$30 796, respectively. The extra amount allocated to managing PEP was small and it appears cost-effective in the short-term as an addition to RAMP.

The smoke-free legislation in Hong Kong: its impact on mortality.

OBJECTIVES: To examine trends in deaths for conditions associated with secondhand smoke exposure over the years prior to and following the implementation of a smoke-free policy in Hong Kong. DESIGN: Time-series study. SETTING: Death registration data from Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) Government Census and Statistics Department. PARTICIPANTS: All deaths registered from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2011. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths for conditions associated with passive smoking include cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease and other causes. RESULTS: There was a decline in the annual proportional change for ischaemic heart disease (IHD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and CVD mortality in the year after the intervention for all ages and those aged 65 years or older. There were also clear declines in the cool season peaks for these three conditions in the first postintervention year. There was a further drop in the cool season peak for AMI among all ages in the year after the exemptions ceased. No declines in annual proportional change or changes in seasonal peaks of mortality were found for any of the control conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The findings in this study add to the evidence base, as summarised in the Surgeon General's report, extending the impact of effective smoke-free legislation to those aged 65 years or older and to cerebrovascular events in younger age groups. They also reinforced the need for comprehensive, enforced and effective smoke-free laws if the full extent of the health gains are to be achieved.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening for Intermediate Age-Related Macular Degeneration during Diabetic Retinopathy Screening.

PURPOSE: To determine whether screening for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) during a diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening program would be cost effective in Hong Kong. DESIGN: We compared and evaluated the impacts of screening, grading, and vitamin treatment for intermediate AMD compared with no screening using a Markov model. It was based on the natural history of AMD in a cohort with a mean age of 62 years, followed up until 100 years of age or death. PARTICIPANTS: Subjects attending a DR screening program were recruited. METHOD: A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken from a public provider perspective. It included grading for AMD using the photographs obtained for DR screening and treatment with vitamin therapy for those with intermediate AMD. The measures of effectiveness were obtained largely from a local study, but the transition probabilities and utility values were from overseas data. Costs were all from local sources. The main assumptions and estimates were tested in sensitivity analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome was cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Both costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. All costs are reported in United States dollars ($). RESULTS: The cost per QALY gained through screening for AMD and vitamin treatment for appropriate cases was $12,712 after discounting. This would be considered highly cost effective based on the World Health Organization's threshold of willingness to pay (WTP) for a QALY, that is, less than the annual per capita gross domestic product of $29,889. Because of uncertainty regarding the utility value for those with advanced AMD, we also tested an extreme, conservative value for utility under which screening remained cost effective. One-way sensitivity analyses revealed that, besides utility values, the cost per QALY was most sensitive to the progression rate from intermediate to advanced AMD. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve showed a WTP for a QALY of $29,000 or more has a more than 86% probability of being cost effective compared with no screening. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis demonstrated that AMD screening carried out simultaneously with DR screening for patients with diabetes would be cost effective in a Hong Kong public healthcare setting.

Long-term effects of the multidisciplinary risk assessment and management program for patients with diabetes mellitus (RAMP-DM): a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Studies on the long-term effectiveness of multidisciplinary risk-stratification based management in Chinese population were rare. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary risk assessment and management program for patients with diabetes mellitus (RAMP-DM) in reducing the risks of cardiovascular complications and all-cause mortality. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted in 18,188 propensity score matched RAMP-DM participants and subjects with diabetes under usual primary care (9,094 subjects in each group). The study endpoints were the first occurrence of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), total cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. We constructed multivariable Cox proportional hazard regressions to estimate the association between the RAMP-DM intervention and the first occurrence of study endpoints. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 36 months. Three hundred and ninety-nine CVD events occurred in the RAMP-DM group, as compared with 608 in the control group [adjusted hazard ratio, 0.629; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.554-0.715; P < 0.001]. The total number of all-cause deaths in RAMP-DM group was less than half that of control group (202 vs 552, adjusted hazard ratio, 0.363; 95% CI, 0.308-0.428; P < 0.001). The adjusted hazard ratios of the RAMP-DM group for CHD, stroke, and HF were 0.570 (95% CI, 0.470-0.691; P < 0.001), 0.652 (95% CI, 0.546-0.780; P < 0.001), and 0.598 (95%CI, 0.446-0.802; P = 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The RAMP-DM intervention was associated with lower incidences of individual and total cardiovascular complications, as well as all-cause mortality over 3 years follow-up. The encouraging results provided evidence to support that the structured risk-stratification management leading by a multidisciplinary clinical team was an effective approach to reduce future cardiovascular complications in people with diabetes. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY: NCT02034695, http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov.

Economic evaluation of the differential benefits of home visits with telephone calls and telephone calls only in transitional discharge support.

BACKGROUND: home visits and telephone calls are two often used approaches in transitional care, but their differential economic effects are unknown. OBJECTIVE: to examine the differential economic benefits of home visits with telephone calls and telephone calls only in transitional discharge support. DESIGN: cost-effectiveness analysis conducted alongside a randomised controlled trial (RCT). PARTICIPANTS: patients discharged from medical units randomly assigned to control (control, N = 210), home visits with calls (home, N = 196) and calls only (call, N = 204). METHODS: cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted from the societal perspective comparing monetary benefits and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. RESULTS: the home arm was less costly but less effective at 28 days and was dominating (less costly and more effective) at 84 days. The call arm was dominating at both 28 and 84 days. The incremental QALY for the home arm was -0.0002/0.0008 (28/84 days), and the call arm was 0.0022/0.0104 (28/84 days). When the three groups were compared, the call arm had a higher probability being cost-effective at 84 days but not at 28 days (home: 53%, call: 35% (28 days) versus home: 22%, call: 73% (84 days)) measuring against the NICE threshold of £20,000. CONCLUSION: the original RCT showed that the bundled intervention involving home visits and calls was more effective than calls only in the reduction of hospital readmissions. This study adds a cost perspective to inform policymakers that both home visits and calls only are cost-effective for transitional care support, but calls only have a higher chance of being cost-effective for a sustained period after intervention.

Did the tobacco industry inflate estimates of illicit cigarette consumption in Asia? An empirical analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Estimates of illicit cigarette consumption are limited and the data obtained from studies funded by the tobacco industry have a tendency to inflate them. This study aimed to validate an industry-funded estimate of 35.9% for Hong Kong using a framework taken from an industry-funded report, but with more transparent data sources. METHODS: Illicit cigarette consumption was estimated as the difference between total cigarette consumption and the sum of legal domestic sales and legal personal imports (duty-free consumption). Reliable data from government reports and scientifically valid routine sources were used to estimate the total cigarette consumption by Hong Kong smokers and legal domestic sales in Hong Kong. Consumption by visitors and legal duty-free consumption by Hong Kong passengers were estimated under three scenarios for the assumptions to examine the uncertainty around the estimate. A two-way sensitivity analysis was conducted using different levels of possible undeclared smoking and under-reporting of self-reported daily consumption. RESULTS: Illicit cigarette consumption was estimated to be about 8.2-15.4% of the total cigarette consumption in Hong Kong in 2012 with a midpoint estimate of 11.9%, as compared with the industry-funded estimate of 35.9% of cigarette consumption. The industry-funded estimate was inflated by 133-337% of the probable true value. Only with significant levels of under-reporting of daily cigarette consumption and undeclared smoking could we approximate the value reported in the industry-funded study. CONCLUSIONS: The industry-funded estimate inflates the likely levels of illicit cigarette consumption.

A comparison of Hong Kong and United Kingdom SF-6D health states valuations using a nonparametric Bayesian method.

OBJECTIVES: There is interest in the extent to which valuations of health may differ between different countries and cultures, but few studies have compared preference values of health states obtained in different countries. The present study applies a nonparametric model to estimate and compare two HK and UK standard gamble values for six-dimensional health state short form (derived from short-form 36 health survey) (SF-6D) health states using Bayesian methods. METHODS: The data set is the HK and UK SF-6D valuation studies in which two samples of 197 and 249 states defined by the SF-6D were valued by representative samples of the HK and UK general populations, respectively, both using the standard gamble technique. We estimated a function applicable across both countries that explicitly accounts for the differences between them, and is estimated using the data from both countries. RESULTS: The results suggest that differences in SF-6D health state valuations between the UK and HK general populations are potentially important. In particular, the valuations of Hong Kong were meaningfully higher than those of the United Kingdom for most of the selected SF-6D health states. The magnitude of these country-specific differences in health state valuation depended, however, in a complex way on the levels of individual dimensions. CONCLUSIONS: The new Bayesian nonparametric method is a powerful approach for analyzing data from multiple nationalities or ethnic groups to understand the differences between them and potentially to estimate the underlying utility functions more efficiently.

The incidental findings of age-related macular degeneration during diabetic retinopathy screening.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability of detecting age-related macular degeneration (AMD) during screening for diabetic retinopathy (DR). METHODS: This prospective study included 2,003 subjects with diabetes mellitus who underwent photographic screening for DR. The reliability of detecting AMD lesions was tested by interobserver and intraobserver agreement, and the sensitivity and specificity of diagnosing AMD at different grades of severity were tested using the consensus grading of a group as the reference standard. RESULTS: DR affected 24.7% of the subjects. The age-standardized prevalence of early AMD was 17.9%, and late AMD was 0.1%. The interobserver and intraobserver agreement for grading AMD was substantial (k = 0.72 and 0.71 respectively, p < 0.001). It was equally good in those with different severities of DR. There was also no difference in sensitivity and specificity of detecting AMD in those with different levels of DR (sensitivity 62-68% and specificity 97-98%). CONCLUSION: Intermediate- and high-risk AMD that warrant treatment with zinc and anti-oxidant supplements could be reliably detected during screening for diabetic retinopathy.

Screening for diabetic retinopathy with or without a copayment in a randomized controlled trial: influence of the inverse care law.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the inverse care law operates in a screening program for diabetic retinopathy (DR) based on fee for service in Hong Kong. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial. PARTICIPANTS: All those with type 1 or 2 diabetes from 2 clinics were recruited. INTERVENTION: Diabetic retinopathy screening with a small copayment versus free access in a publicly funded family medicine service. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Uptake of screening and severity of DR detected. Association between these outcome variables and independent variables were determined using multivariate logistic regression models and reported as odds ratios (ORs). RESULTS: After randomization, 1387 subjects in the free group and 1379 subjects in the pay group were eligible for screening, and 94.9% (1316/1387) and 92.6% (1277/1379), respectively, agreed to participate in the study. The offer of screening was accepted by 94.8% (1247/1316) in the free group and 91.2% (1164/1277) in the pay group, and the final uptake ratios were 88.5% (1165/1316) and 82.4% (1052/1277), respectively (Pearson chi = 19.74, P<0.001). Being in the pay group was associated with a lower uptake of screening than being in the free group (OR, 0.59; confidence interval [CI], 0.47-0.74) and a lower detection rate of DR (OR, 0.73; CI, 0.60-0.90) after adjustment for potential confounding factors. Subjects with higher socioeconomic status were more likely to attend screening and had a lower prevalence of DR detected. CONCLUSIONS: The inverse care law seems to operate in a preventive intervention when a relatively small copayment is applied. There is a case for making effective preventive services free of charge. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.

Modeling SF-6D Hong Kong standard gamble health state preference data using a nonparametric Bayesian method.

OBJECTIVES: This article reports on the findings from applying a recently described approach to modeling health state valuation data and the impact of the respondent characteristics on health state valuations. The approach applies a nonparametric model to estimate a Bayesian six-dimensional health state short form (derived from short-form 36 health survey) health state valuation algorithm. METHODS: A sample of 197 states defined by the six-dimensional health state short form (derived from short-form 36 health survey)has been valued by a representative sample of the Hong Kong general population by using standard gamble. The article reports the application of the nonparametric model and compares it to the original model estimated by using a conventional parametric random effects model. The two models are compared theoretically and in terms of empirical performance. RESULTS: Advantages of the nonparametric model are that it can be used to predict scores in populations with different distributions of characteristics than observed in the survey sample and that it allows for the impact of respondent characteristics to vary by health state (while ensuring that full health passes through unity). The results suggest an important age effect with sex, having some effect, but the remaining covariates having no discernible effect. CONCLUSIONS: The nonparametric Bayesian model is argued to be more theoretically appropriate than previously used parametric models. Furthermore, it is more flexible to take into account the impact of covariates.

Prevalence, time trends, and correlates of major depressive episode and other psychiatric conditions among young people amid major social unrest and COVID-19 in Hong Kong: a representative epidemiological study from 2019 to 2022.

Background: Hong Kong is among the many populations that has experienced the combined impacts of social unrest and the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite concerns about further deteriorations in youth mental health globally, few epidemiological studies have been conducted to examine the prevalence and correlates of major depressive episode (MDE) and other major psychiatric disorders across periods of population-level changes using diagnostic interviews. Methods: We conducted a territory-wide household-based epidemiological study from 2019 to 2022 targeting young people aged 15-24 years. MDE, generalised anxiety disorder (GAD), panic disorder (PD), and bipolar disorder (BD) were assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview-Screening Scales in 3340 young people. Psychotic disorders were assessed by experienced psychiatrists according to the DSM. Help-seeking patterns were also explored. Findings: 16.6% had any mental disorder (13.7% 12-month MDE, 2.3% BD, 2.1% GAD, 1.0% PD, 0.6% psychotic disorder). The prevalence of MDE increased from 13.2% during period 1 (May 2019-June 2020) to 18.1% during period 2 (July-December 2020), followed by 14.0% during period 3 (January-June 2021) and 13.2% during period 4 (July 2021-June 2022). Different stressors uniquely contributed to MDE across periods: social unrest-related stressors during period 1, COVID-19 stressors during period 2, and personal stressors during periods 3-4. Lower resilience, loneliness, frequent nightmares, and childhood adversity were consistently associated with MDE. Compared to other conditions, those with MDE showed the lowest service utilisation rate (16.7%). Perceiving services to "cost too much" and "talked to friends or relatives instead" were among the major reasons for not seeking help. MDE was also significantly associated with poorer functioning and health-related quality of life. Interpretation: MDE can be sensitive to population-level changes, although its persistently elevated prevalence across the study period is of concern. Efforts to mitigate their impacts on youth mental health alongside personal risk factors are needed. Further work is required to increase the availability and acceptability of youth-targeted mental health services. Funding: Food and Health Bureau (HKSAR Government).

Mapping the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-general or -Colorectal to SF-6D in Chinese patients with colorectal neoplasm.

OBJECTIVES: To map Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General (FACT-G) and Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Colorectal (FACT-C) subscale scores onto six-dimensional health state short form (derived from short form 36 health survey) (SF-6D) preference-based values in patients with colorectal neoplasm, with and without adjustment for clinical and demographic characteristics. These results can then be applied to studies that have used FACT-G or FACT-C to predict SF-6D utility values to inform economic evaluation. METHODS: Ordinary least square regressions were estimated mapping FACT-G and FACT-C onto SF-6D by using cross-sectional data of 537 Chinese subjects with different stages of colorectal neoplasm. Mapping functions for SF-6D preference-based values were developed separately for FACT-G and FACT-C in four sequential models for addition of variables: 1) main-effect terms, 2) squared terms, 3) interaction terms, and 4) clinical and demographic variables. Predictive performance in each model was assessed by the R(2), adjusted R(2), predicted R(2), information criteria (Akaike information criteria and Bayesian information criteria), the root mean square error, the mean absolute error, and the proportions of absolute error within the threshold of 0.05 and 0.10. RESULTS: Models including FACT variables and clinical and demographic variables had the best predictive performance measured by using R(2) (FACT-G: 59.98%; FACT-C: 60.43%), root mean square error (FACT-G: 0.086; FACT-C: 0.084), and mean absolute error (FACT-G: 0.065; FACT-C: 0.065). The FACT-C-based mapping function had better predictive ability than did the FACT-G-based mapping function. CONCLUSIONS: Models mapping FACT-G and FACT-C onto SF-6D reached an acceptable degree of precision. Mapping from the condition-specific measure (FACT-C) had better performance than did mapping from the general cancer measure (FACT-G). These mapping functions can be applied to FACT-G or FACT-C data sets to estimate SF-6D utility values for economic evaluation of medical interventions for patients with colorectal neoplasm. Further research assessing model performance in independent data sets and non-Chinese populations are encouraged.

Cost-effectiveness of a health-social partnership transitional program for post-discharge medical patients.

BACKGROUND: Readmissions are costly and have implications for quality of care. Studies have been reported to support effects of transitional care programs in reducing hospital readmissions and enhancing clinical outcomes. However, there is a paucity of studies executing full economic evaluation to assess the cost-effectiveness of these transitional care programs. This study is therefore launched to fill this knowledge gap. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted alongside a randomized controlled trial that examined the effects of a Health-Social Transitional Care Management Program (HSTCMP) for medical patients discharged from an acute regional hospital in Hong Kong. The cost and health outcomes were compared between the patients receiving the HSTCMP and usual care. The total costs comprised the pre-program, program, and healthcare utilization costs. Quality of life was measured with SF-36 and transformed to utility values between 0 and 1. RESULTS: The readmission rates within 28 (control 10.2%, study 4.0%) and 84 days (control 19.4%, study 8.1%) were significantly higher in the control group. Utility values showed no difference between the control and study groups at baseline (p = 0.308). Utility values for the study group were significantly higher than in the control group at 28 (p < 0.001) and 84 days (p = 0.002). The study group also had a significantly higher QALYs gain (p < 0.001) over time at 28 and 84 days when compared with the control group. The intervention had an 89% chance of being cost-effective at the threshold of £20000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Previous studies on transitional care focused mainly on clinical outcomes and not too many included cost as an outcome measure. Studies examining the cost-effectiveness of the post-discharge support services are scanty. This study is the first to examine the cost-effectiveness of a transitional care program that used nurse-led services participated by volunteers. Results have shown that a health-social partnership transitional care program is cost-effective in reducing healthcare costs and attaining QALY gains. Economic evaluation helps to inform funders and guide decisions for the effective use of competing healthcare resources.

Impact of the 1990 Hong Kong legislation for restriction on sulfur content in fuel.

INTRODUCTION: After the implementation of a regulation restricting sulfur to 0.5% by weight in fuel on July 1, 1990, in Hong Kong, sulfur dioxide (SO2*) levels fell by 45% on average and as much as 80% in the most polluted districts (Hedley et al. 2002). In addition, a reduction of respiratory symptoms and an improvement in bronchial hyperresponsiveness in children were observed (Peters et al. 1996; Wong et al. 1998). A recent time-series study (Hedley et al. 2002) found an immediate reduction in mortality during the cool season at six months after the intervention, followed by an increase in cool-season mortality in the second and third years, suggesting that the reduction in pollution was associated with a delay in mortality. Proportional changes in mortality trends between the 5-year periods before and after the intervention were measured as relative risks and used to assess gains in life expectancy using the life table method (Hedley et al. 2002). To further explore the relation between changes in pollution-related mortality before and after the intervention, our study had three objectives: (1) to evaluate the short-term effects on mortality of changes in the pollutant mix after the Hong Kong sulfur intervention, particularly with changes in the particulate matter (PM) chemical species; (2) to improve the methodology for assessment of the health impact in terms of changes in life expectancy using linear regression models; and (3) to develop an approach for analyzing changes in life expectancy from Poisson regression models. A fourth overarching objective was to determine the relation between short- and long-term benefits due to an improvement in air quality. METHODS: For an assessment of the short-term effects on mortality due to changes in the pollutant mix, we developed Poisson regression Core Models with natural spline smoothers to control for long-term and seasonal confounding variations in the mortality counts and with covariates to adjust for temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH). We assessed the adequacy of the Core Models by evaluating the results against the Akaike Information Criterion, which stipulates that, at a minimum, partial autocorrelation plots should be between -0.1 and 0.1, and by examining the residual plots to make sure they were free from patterns. We assessed the effects for gaseous pollutants (NO2, SO2, and O3), PM with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm (PM10), and its chemical species (aluminum [Al], iron [Fe], manganese [Mn], nickel [Ni], vanadium [V], lead [Pb], and zinc [Zn]) using the Core Models, which were developed for the periods 5 years (or 2 years in the case of the sensitivity analysis) before and 5 years after the intervention, as well as in the10-year (or 7-year in the case of the sensitivity analysis) period pre- and post-intervention. We also included an indicator to separate the pre- and post-intervention periods, as well as the product of the indicator with an air pollution concentration variable. The health outcomes were mortality for all natural causes and for cardiovascular and respiratory causes, at all ages and in the 65 years or older age group. To assess the short- and long-term effects, we developed two methods: one using linear regression models reflecting the age-standardized mortality rate D(j) at day j, divided by a reference D(ref); and the other using Poisson regression models with daily mortality counts as the outcome variables. We also used both models to evaluate the relation between outcome variables and daily air pollution concentrations in the current day up to all previous days in the past 3 to 4 years. In the linear regression approach, we adjusted the data for temperature and relative humidity. We then removed season as a potential confounder, or deseasonalized them, by calculating a standard seasonal mortality rate profile, normalized to an annual average of unity, and dividing the mortality rates by this profile. Finally, to correct for long-term trends, we calculated a reference mortality rate D(ref)(j) as a moving average of the corrected and deseasonalized D(j) over the observation window. Then we regressed the outcome variable D(j)/D(ref) on an entire exposure sequence {c(i)} with lags up to 4 years in order to obtain impact coefficient f(i) from the regression model shown below: deltaD(j)/D (ref) = i(max)sigma f(i) c(j - i)(i = 0). The change in life expectancy (LE) for a change of units (deltac) in the concentration of pollutants on T(day)--representing the short interval (i.e., a day)--was calculated from the following equation (deltaL(pop) = average loss in life expectancy of an entire population): deltaL(pop) = -deltac T(day) infinity sigma (j = 0) infinity sigma f(i) (i = 0). In the Poisson regression approach, we fitted a distributed-lag model for exposure to previous days of up to 4 years in order to obtain the cumulative lag effect sigma beta(i). We fit the linear regression model of log(LE*/LE) = gamma(SMR - 1) + alpha to estimate the parameter gamma by gamma, where LE* and LE are life expectancy for an exposed and an unexposed population, respectively, and SMR represents the standardized mortality ratio. The life expectancy change per Ac increase in concentration is LE {exp[gamma delta c(sigma beta(i))]-1}. RESULTS: In our assessment of the changes in pollutant levels, the mean levels of SO2, Ni, and V showed a statistically significant decline, particularly in industrial areas. Ni and V showed the greatest impact on mortality, especially for respiratory diseases in the 5-year pre-intervention period for both the all-ages and 65+ groups among all chemical species. There were decreases in excess risks associated with Ni and V after the intervention, but they were nonsignificant. Using the linear regression approach, with a window of 1095 days (3 years), the losses in life expectancy with a 10-microg/m3 increase in concentrations, using two methods of estimation (one with adjustment for temperature and RH before the regression against pollutants, the other with adjustment for temperature and RH within the regression against pollutants), were 19.2 days (95% CI, 12.5 to 25.9) and 31.4 days (95% CI, 25.6 to 37.2) for PM10; and 19.7 days (95% CI, 15.2 to 24.2) and 12.8 days (95% CI, 8.9 to 16.8) for SO2. The losses in life expectancy in the current study were smaller than the ones implied by Elliott and colleagues (2007) and Pope and colleagues (2002) as expected since the observation window in our study was only 3 years whereas these other studies had windows of 16 years. In particular, the coefficients used by Elliott and colleagues (2007) for windows of 12 and 16 years were non-zero, which suggests that our window of at most 3 years cannot capture the full life expectancy loss and the effects were most likely underestimated. Using the Poisson regression approach, with a window of 1461 days (4 years), we found that a 10-microg/m3 increase in concentration of PM10 was associated with a change in life expectancy of -69 days (95% CI, -140 to 1) and a change of -133 days (95% CI, -172 to -94) for the same increase in SO2. The effect estimates varied as expected according to most variations in the sensitivity analysis model, specifically in terms of the Core Model definition, exposure windows, constraint of the lag effect pattern, and adjustment for smoking prevalence or socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: Our results on the excess risks of mortality showed exposure to chemical species to be a health hazard. However, the statistical power was not sufficient to detect the differences between the pre- and post-intervention periods in Hong Kong due to the data limitations (specifically, the chemical species data were available only once every 6 days, and data were not available from some monitoring stations). Further work is needed to develop methods for maximizing the information from the data in order to assess any changes in effects due to the intervention. With complete daily air pollution and mortality data over a long period, time-series analysis methods can be applied to assess the short- and long-term effects of air pollution, in terms of changes in life expectancy. Further work is warranted to assess the duration and pattern of the health effects from an air pollution pulse (i.e., an episode of a rapid rise in air pollution) so as to determine an appropriate length and constraint on the distributed-lag assessment model.

Lung function and exposure to workplace second-hand smoke during exemptions from smoking ban legislation: an exposure-response relationship based on indoor PM2.5 and urinary cotinine levels.

BACKGROUND: The effects of workplace second-hand smoke (SHS) on lung function remain uncertain because of a lack of objective measures for SHS exposures. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether an exposure-response association exists between lung function and two different markers of SHS based on indoor fine particulate (PM(2.5)) and urinary cotinine levels in non-smoking catering workers. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study during a 1.5-year exemption of licensed catering premises from smoke-free legislation. Participants 186 non-smoking catering workers aged 18-65 years in Hong Kong were recruited. A declared non-smoking status was accepted in workers with exhaled breath carbon monoxide levels <6 ppm and urinary cotinine levels <100 ng/ml. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lung function measures of forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV(1) in litres), forced vital capacity (FVC in litres) and forced expiratory flow as 25-75% of FVC (FEF(25-75) in l/s) were recorded. RESULTS: Indoor fine particulate (PM(2.5)) concentrations were 4.4 times as high in smoking premises (267.9 µg/m(3)) than in non-smoking premises (60.3 µg/m(3)) and were strongly associated with the probability of permitted smoking (R(2)=0.99). Smoking was the dominant source of particulates (R(2)=0.66). Compared with workers exposed to the lowest indoor PM(2.5) stratum (<25 µg/m(3)), lung function was lower in the three higher PM(2.5) strata (25-75, 75-175, >175 µg/m(3)) with FEV(1) -0.072 (95% CI -0.123 to -0.021), -0.078 (95% CI -0.132 to -0.024), -0.101 (95% CI -0.187 to -0.014); FEF(25-75) -0.368 (95% CI -0.660 to -0.077), -0.489 (95% CI -0.799 to -0.179), -0.597 (95% CI -0.943 to -0.251); and FEV(1)/FVC (%) -2.9 (95% CI -4.8 to -1.0), -3.2 (95% CI -5.1 to -1.4) and -4.4 (95% CI -7.4 to -1.3), respectively. Urinary cotinine was associated positively with indoor PM(2.5) but negatively with lung function. Consistently lower values for lung function per unit increase of indoor PM(2.5) were found. CONCLUSION: Lung function is inversely associated with workplace SHS. Workplace exemptions and delays in implementing smoke-free policies and current moves to relax legislation are a major threat to the health of workers.