ABSTRACT
We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms report significant or severe disruptions to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruptions, they expect to lower near-term selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the end of 2020. These cuts stem from firms that have been disproportionally negatively impacted by the pandemic. Second, firms (like professional forecasters) have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by lowering their one-year-ahead inflation expectations. These responses stand in stark contrast to that of household inflation expectations (as measured by the University of Michigan or the New York Fed). Indeed, firms' one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell precipitously (to a series low) following the onset of the pandemic, while household measures of inflation expectations jumped markedly. Third, despite the dramatic decline in firms' near-term inflation expectations, their longer-run inflation expectations have remained relatively stable.
ABSTRACT
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based policy uncertainty, Twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about business growth, forecaster disagreement about future GDP growth, and a model-based measure of macro uncertainty. Four results emerge. First, all indicators show huge uncertainty jumps in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Indeed, most indicators reach their highest values on record. Second, peak amplitudes differ greatly - from a 35% rise for the model-based measure of US economic uncertainty (relative to January 2020) to a 20-fold rise in forecaster disagreement about UK growth. Third, time paths also differ: Implied volatility rose rapidly from late February, peaked in mid-March, and fell back by late March as stock prices began to recover. In contrast, broader measures of uncertainty peaked later and then plateaued, as job losses mounted, highlighting differences between Wall Street and Main Street uncertainty measures. Fourth, in Cholesky-identified VAR models fit to monthly U.S. data, a COVID-size uncertainty shock foreshadows peak drops in industrial production of 12-19%.
ABSTRACT
The efficacy of an intranasal (IN) bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) vaccine administered in the presence of passive immunity was assessed. Pooled colostrum was administered by intubation to 50 beef-dairy crossbred calves the day they were born. The calves were transported to a research facility and were blocked by age and sex, and randomly assigned into two groups: sham-vaccinated intranasally with a placebo (sterile water) or vaccinated with a trivalent (BRSV, bovine herpesvirus 1 and bovine parainfluenza 3) modified live viral (MLV) vaccine. The calves were 9 ± 2 days old when vaccinated (day 0). The calves were challenged by aerosolized BRSV on days 80 and 81 as a respiratory challenge. The study was terminated on day 88. Lung lesion scores (LLS) were significantly lower for calves vaccinated with trivalent MLV vaccine than those for calves that were sham-vaccinated. Serum neutralization (SN) antibody against BRSV in calves vaccinated with the trivalent MLV vaccine demonstrated an anamnestic response on day 88. After challenge, the calves sham-vaccinated with the placebo lost weight, while those vaccinated with the trivalent MLV vaccine gained weight. In this study, colostrum-derived antibodies did not interfere with the immune response or protection provided by one dose of the trivalent MLV vaccine.