Propofol vs etomidate for induction prior to invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) have a high mortality. However, little is known regarding the impact of induction agents, used prior to IMV, on clinical outcomes in this population. We assessed for the association between induction agent and mortality in patients with AMI requiring IMV. METHODS: We compared clinical outcomes between those receiving propofol compared to etomidate for induction among adults with AMI between October 2015 and December 2019 using the Vizient® Clinical Data Base, a multicenter, US national database. We used inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) to assess for the association between induction agent and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: We identified 5,147 patients, 1,386 (26.9%) of received propofol and 3,761 (73.1%) received etomidate for IMV induction. The mean (SD) age was 66.1 (12.4) years, 33.0% were women, and 51.6% and 39.8% presented with STEMI and cardiogenic shock, respectively. Patients in the propofol group were more likely to require preintubation vasoactive medication and mechanical circulatory support (both, P < .05). Utilization of propofol was associated with lower mortality compared to etomidate (32.3% vs 36.1%, P = .01). After propensity weighting, propofol use remained associated with lower mortality (weighted mean difference -4.7%; 95% confidence interval: -7.6% to -1.8%, P = .002). Total cost, ventilator days, and length of stay were higher in the propofol group (all, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Induction with propofol, compared with etomidate, was associated with lower mortality for patients with AMI requiring IMV. Randomized trials are needed to determine the optimal induction agent for this critically ill patient population.

Current practices in the management of temporary mechanical circulatory support: A survey of CICU directors in North America.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the growing use of temporary mechanical circulatory support (tMCS), little data exists to inform management and weaning of these devices. METHODS: We performed an online survey among cardiac intensive care unit directors in North America to examine current practices in the management of patients treated with intraaortic balloon pump and Impella. RESULTS: We received responses from 84% of surveyed centers (n=37). Our survey focused on three key aspects of daily management: 1. Hemodynamic monitoring; 2. Hemocompatibility; and 3. Weaning and removal. We found substantial variability surrounding all three areas of care. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the need for consensus around practices associated with improved outcomes in patients treated with tMCS.

Temperature Control Parameters Are Important: Earlier Preinduction Is Associated With Improved Outcomes Following Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Temperature control trials in cardiac arrest patients have not reliably conferred neuroprotective benefit but have been limited by inconsistent treatment parameters. To evaluate the presence of a time dependent treatment effect, we assessed the association between preinduction time and clinical outcomes. METHODS: In this retrospective, single academic center study between 2014 and 2022, consecutive out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients treated with temperature control were identified. Preinduction was defined as the time from hospital arrival to initiation of a closed-loop temperature feedback device [door to temperature control initiation time], and early door to temperature control device time was defined a priori as <3 hours. We assessed the association between good neurologic outcome (cerebral performance category 1 to 2) and door to temperature control device time using logistic regression. The proportion of patients who survived to hospital discharge was evaluated as a secondary outcome. A sensitivity analysis using inverse probability treatment weighting, created using a propensity score, was performed to minimize measurable confounding. RESULTS: Three hundred and forty-seven OHCA patients were included; the early door to temperature control device cohort included 75 (21.6%) patients with a median (interquartile range) door to temperature control device time of 2.50 (2.03 to 2.75) hours, whereas the late door to temperature control device cohort included 272 (78.4%) patients with a median (interquartile range) door to temperature control device time of 5.18 (4.19 to 6.41) hours. In the multivariable logistic regression model, early door to temperature control device time was associated with improved good neurologic outcome and survival before [adjusted odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval) 2.36 (1.16 to 4.81) and 3.02 (1.54 to 6.02)] and after [adjusted OR (95% confidence interval) 1.95 (1.19 to 3.79) and 2.14 (1.33 to 3.36)] inverse probability of treatment weighting, respectively. CONCLUSION: In our study of OHCA patients, a shorter preinduction time for temperature control was associated with improved good neurologic outcome and survival. This finding may indicate that early initiation in the emergency department will confer benefit. Our findings are hypothesis generating and need to be validated in future prospective trials.

Noninvasive Ventilation in the Cardiac Intensive Care Unit.

Over the last several decades, the cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) has seen an increase in the complexity of the patient population and etiologies requiring CICU admission. Currently, respiratory failure is the most common reason for admission to the contemporary CICU. As a result, noninvasive ventilation (NIV), including noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation and high-flow nasal cannula, has been increasingly utilized in the management of patients admitted to the CICU. In this review, we detail the different NIV modalities and summarize the evidence supporting their use in conditions frequently encountered in the CICU. We describe the unique pathophysiologic interactions between positive pressure ventilation and left and/or right ventricular dysfunction. Additionally, we discuss the evidence and strategies for utilization of NIV as a method to reduce extubation failure in patients who required invasive mechanical ventilation. Lastly, we examine unique considerations for managing respiratory failure in certain, high-risk patient populations such as those with right ventricular failure, severe valvular disease, and adult congenital heart disease. Overall, it is critical for clinicians who practice in the CICU to be experts with the application, risks, benefits, and modalities of NIV in cardiac patients with respiratory failure.

Tracheostomy in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction and Respiratory Failure.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) complicated by respiratory failure require antiplatelet regimens which often cannot be stopped and may increase bleeding from tracheostomy. However, there is limited available data on both the proportion of patients undergoing tracheostomy and the impact on antiplatelet regimens on outcomes. METHODS: Utilizing the Vizient® Clinical Data Base, we identified patients ≥18 years admitted from 2015 to 2019 with a primary diagnosis of AMI and requiring invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). We assessed for the incidence of patients undergoing tracheostomy, outcomes stratified by the timing of tracheostomy (≤10 vs >10 days), and the association between dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) use and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: We identified 26 435 patients presenting with AMI requiring IMV. The mean (SD) age was 66.8 (12.3) years and 33.4% were women. The incidence of tracheostomy was 6.0% (n = 1573), and the median IMV time to tracheostomy was 12 days, 55.6% of which underwent percutaneous and 44.4% underwent open tracheostomy. Over 90% (n = 1424) underwent tracheostomy (>10 days) and had a similar mortality when compared to early (≤10 days) tracheostomy (22.5% vs 22.8%, P = 0.94). On the day of tracheostomy, only 24.7% were given DAPT, which was associated with a lower mortality than those not on DAPT (17.4% vs 23.7%, P = 0.01). After multivariable adjustment, DAPT use on the day of tracheostomy remained associated with lower in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 0.68; 95% confidence interval: 0.49-0.94, P = 0.02). Tracheostomy complications were not different between groups (P > 0.05), but more patients in the DAPT group required post-tracheostomy blood transfusions (5.6% vs 2.7%, P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Approximately 1 in 20 intubated AMI patients requires tracheostomy. The lack of DAPT interruption on the day of tracheostomy but not the timing of tracheostomy was associated with a lower in-hospital mortality. Our results suggest that DAPT should not be a barrier to tracheostomy for patients with AMI.

Trends in outcomes and resource utilization for acute myocardial infarction admissions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the early COVID-19 pandemic, resources were at times rationed, and as a result, cardiovascular outcomes may have suffered, however despite this, there is a paucity of national data specifically examining the relationship between COVID-19 and acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Some of the most robust previous cohort studies suggest the risk of AMI is increased in patients with COVID-19 infection, and disproportionately so in certain patient populations. To better define national trends in the associations between COVID-19 and AMI, this study aimed to examine demographics, outcomes, and health care utilization in hospitalizations for AMI with a codiagnosis of COVID-19 using a nationally representative database.

Effects of COVID-19 on heart failure admissions.

Despite significant investigation into the effects of COVID-19 on cardiovascular disease, there is a paucity of national data specifically examining its effects on heart failure (HF) hospitalizations. Previous cohort study data demonstrate worsened outcomes in HF patients with recent COVID-19 infection. To better understand this association, this study aimed to utilize a nationally representative database to examine demographics, outcomes, and health care utilization in hospitalizations for HF with a codiagnosis of COVID-19.

Trends in transcatheter and surgical aortic valve replacement in the United States, 2008-2018.

We conducted a retrospective study using the NIS database from 2008 to 2018 to examine the most contemporary national hospitalization trends of transcatheter (TAVR) and surgical (SAVR) aortic valve replacement regarding volume, patient and hospital demographics and economics, resource utilization, total cost of stay, and in-hospital mortality. We demonstrate that TAVR procedures have been performed on a slow by steadily diversifying patient population while volume has grown significantly, while in-hospital mortality, length of stay, discharge home, and costs have improved, whereas these metrics have generally remained stable for SAVR. These trends will likely drive continued TAVR adoption, greatly expanding the overall aortic stenosis patient population eligible for AVR.

Trends in Heart Failure Hospitalizations in the US from 2008 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a major driver of health care costs in the United States and is increasing in prevalence. There is a paucity of contemporary data examining trends among hospitalizations for HF that specifically compare HF with reduced or preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF or HFpEF, respectively). METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the National Inpatient Sample, we identified 11,692,995 hospitalizations due to HF. Hospitalizations increased from 1,060,540 in 2008 to 1,270,360 in 2018. Over time, the median age of patients hospitalized because of HF decreased from 76.0 to 73.0 years (P < 0.001). There were increases in the proportions of Black patients (18.4% in 2008 to 21.2% in 2018) and of Hispanic patients (7.1% in 2008 to 9.0% in 2018; P < 0.001, all). Over the study period, we saw an increase in comorbid diabetes, sleep apnea and obesity (P < 0.001, all) in the entire cohort with HF as well as in the HFrEF and HFpEF subgroups. Persons admitted because of HFpEF were more likely to be white and older compared to admissions because of HFrEF and also had lower costs. Inpatient mortality decreased from 2008 to 2018 for overall HF (3.3% to 2.6%) and HFpEF (2.4% to 2.1%; P < 0.001, all) but was stable for HFrEF (2.8%, both years). Hospital costs, adjusted for inflation, decreased in all 3 groups across the study period, whereas length of stay was relatively stable over time for all groups. CONCLUSIONS: The volume of patients hospitalized due to HF has increased over time and across subgroups of ejection fraction. The demographics of HF, HFrEF and HFpEF have become more diverse over time, and hospital inpatient costs have decreased, regardless of HF type. Inpatient mortality rates improved for overall HF and HFpEF admissions but remained stable for HFrEF admissions.

Staffing models in the cardiac intensive care unit.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The modern cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) has evolved into a high-intensity unit that cares for critically ill patients. Despite this transformation, changes to the staffing model and organizational structure in these specialized units have only recently begun to meet these challenges. We describe the most recent evidence which will inform future CICU staffing models. RECENT FINDINGS: In the United States, the majority of CICUs are open as opposed to closed units, yet recent data suggests that transition to a closed staffing model is associated with a decrease in mortality. These reductions in mortality in closed CICUs are most pronounced in the most critically ill populations, such as patients with mechanical circulatory support, cardiac arrest, and respiratory failure. In addition, one study has shown that transition to a cardiac intensivist staffed CICU was associated with a reduction in mortality. Finally, multidisciplinary and protocolized teams imbedded within the CICU, specifically 'shock teams,' have recently been developed and may reduce mortality in this particularly sick patient population. SUMMARY: Although the preponderance of data suggests improved outcomes with a closed, intensivist staffed CICU model, future multicenter studies are needed to better define the ideal staffing models for the contemporary CICU.

Trends in Therapy and Outcomes Associated With Respiratory Failure in Patients Admitted to the Cardiac Intensive Care Unit.

PURPOSE: To describe the epidemiology, outcomes, and temporal trends of respiratory failure in the cardiac intensive care unit (CICU). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis of 2,986 unique Mayo Clinic CICU patients from 2007 to 2018 with respiratory failure. Temporal trends were analyzed, along with hospital and 1-year mortality. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine adjusted hospital mortality trends. RESULTS: The prevalence of respiratory failure in the CICU increased from 15% to 38% during the study period (P < 0.001 for trend). Among patients with respiratory failure, the utilization of invasive ventilation decreased and noninvasive ventilation modalities increased over time. Hospital mortality and 1-year mortality were 24% and 54%, respectively, with variation according to the type of respiratory support (highest among patients receiving invasive ventilation alone: 35% and 46%, respectively). Hospital mortality was highest among patients with concomitant cardiac arrest and/or shock (52% for patients with both). Hospital mortality decreased in the overall population from 35% to 25% (P < 0.001 for trend), but was unchanged among patients receiving positive-pressure ventilation. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of respiratory failure in CICU more than doubled during the last decade. The use of noninvasive respiratory support increased, while overall mortality declined over time. Cardiac arrest and shock accounted for the majority of deaths. Further research is needed to optimize the outcomes of high-risk CICU patients with respiratory failure.

Electronic health record risk score provides earlier prognostication of clinical outcomes in patients admitted to the cardiac intensive care unit.

In this observational study, we compared the prognostic ability of an electronic health record (EHR)-derived risk score, the Rothman Index (RI), automatically derived on admission, to the first 24-hour Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score for outcome prediction in the modern cardiac intensive care unit (CICU). We found that while the 24-hour SOFA score provided modestly superior discrimination for both in-hospital and CICU mortality, the RI upon CICU admission had better calibration for both outcomes. Given the ubiquitous nature of EHR utilization in the United States, the RI may become an important tool to rapidly risk stratify CICU patients within the ICU and improve resource allocation.

Association between Respiratory Failure and Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Acute Heart Failure: Analysis of 5 Pooled Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: Despite a temporal increase in respiratory failure in patients hospitalized with acute heart failure (HF), clinical trials have largely not reported the incidence or associated clinical outcomes for patients requiring mechanical ventilation. METHODS AND RESULTS: After pooling 5 acute HF clinical trials, we used multivariable logistic regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, examinations, and laboratory findings to assess associations between mechanical ventilation and clinical outcomes. Among the 8296 patients, 210 (2.5%) required mechanical ventilation. Age, sex, smoking history, baseline ejection fraction, HF etiology, and the proportion of patients randomized to treatment or placebo in the original clinical trial were similar between groups (all, P > 0.05). Baseline diabetes mellitus was more common in the mechanical ventilation group (P = 0.02), but other comorbidities, including chronic lung disease, were otherwise similar (all P > 0.05). HF rehospitalization at 30 days (12.7% vs 6.6%, P < 0.001) and all-cause 60-day mortality (33.3% vs 6.1%, P < 0.001) was higher among patients requiring mechanical ventilation. After multivariable adjustment, mechanical ventilation use was associated with an increased 30-day HF rehospitalization (odds ratio 2.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-3.21, P = 0.002), 30-day mortality (odds ratio 10.40; 95% confidence interval, 7.22-14.98, P < 0.001), and 60-day mortality (odds ratio 7.68; 95% confidence interval, 5.50-10.74, P < 0.001). The influence of mechanical ventilation did not differ by HF etiology or baseline ejection fraction (both, interaction P > 0.20). CONCLUSIONS: Respiratory failure during an index hospitalization for acute HF was associated with increased rehospitalization and all-cause mortality. The development of respiratory failure during an acute HF admission identifies a particularly vulnerable population, which should be identified for closer monitoring.

The Impact of Depression on Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction Treated in the GUIDE-IT Trial.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear why depression is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). We examine the relationship between depression and clinical outcomes among patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction managed with guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT). METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the GUIDE-IT trial, 894 patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction were stratified according to a history of depression, and Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was used to examine the association with outcomes. There were 140 patients (16%) in the overall cohort who had depression. They tended to be female (29% vs 46%, P < .001) and White (67% vs 53%, P = .002). There were no differences in GDMT rates at baseline or at 90 days; nor were there differences in target doses of these therapies achieved at 90 days (NS, all). amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels at all time points were similar between the cohorts (P > .05, all). After adjustment, depression was associated with all-cause hospitalizations (hazard ratio, 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.81, P < .01), cardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 1.69, 95% confidence interval 1.07-2.68, P = .025), and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.54, 95% confidence interval 1.03-2.32, P = .039). CONCLUSIONS: Depression impacts clinical outcomes in HF regardless of GDMT intensity and amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels. This finding underscores the need for a focus on mental health in parallel to achievement of optimal GDMT in these patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01685840, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01685840.

Cannabis use disorder among atrial fibrillation admissions, 2008-2018.

BACKGROUND: Despite changes inthe legality of cannabis use and the increasing prevalence of cannabis use disorder (CUD), there is little data investigating the association between CUD and inpatient atrial fibrillation (AF) hospitalizations. METHODS: Using the National Inpatient Sample, we identified Atrial Fibrillation (AF) hospitalizations with and without a codiagnosis of CUD using International Classification of Diseases diagnosis codes and compared demographics, socioeconomics, comorbidities, outcomes, and trends between cohorts. RESULTS: Between 2008 and 2018, we identified 5,155,789 admissions for AF of which 31,768 (0.6%) had a codiagnosis of CUD. The proportion of admissions with a history of CUD increased from 0.3% in 2008 to 1.0% in 2018 (p < .001). Hospital discharges of patients with CUD were significantly younger (53 vs. 72 years, p < .001), had a higher proportion of black race (CUD: 26.6% vs. 8.0%, p < .001), and had a higher proportion of income in the lowest income quartile than without a codiagnosis of CUD (CUD: 40.5% vs. 26.2%, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: CUD is increasingly prevalent among AF hospitalizations, particularly among young patients. Codiagnosis of CUD in AF hospitalizations is also more common in underserved patients. As a result, it is important for future research to examine and understand the impact of CUD on this population, particularly in the light of changing legislation surrounding the legality of cannabis.

Transition to Advanced Therapies in Elderly Patients Supported by Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Although the use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) continues to increase, very little is known about how age influences the transition to definitive advanced therapies. METHODS: Using the National Inpatient Sample database from 2008 to 2017, we analyzed patients supported by ECMO for cardiogenic shock and separated patients into 2 age cohorts: < 65 years and ≥ 65 years. Primary outcomes of interest included the proportion of patients undergoing orthotopic cardiac transplantation (OHT) and left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation. RESULTS: Over the study period, we identified 16,132 hospitalizations of people with cardiogenic shock requiring ECMO support. Significantly fewer patients in the older group underwent OHT compared to the younger group (0.4% vs 1.2%, P < 0.001). Compared to the younger group, a lower proportion of those ≥ 65 years received an LVAD (3.7% vs 5.8%, P < 0.001). LVAD implantation increased over the study period in both age cohorts, whereas OHT increased only in the < 65 group (P < 0.05, all). After multivariable adjustment, patients in the oldest age group were still less likely to receive an LVAD (odds ratio 0.54; confidence interval: 0.43-0.69, P < 0.001) and continued to have the highest odds of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.53; confidence interval : 1.39-1.69, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Survival of patients ≥ 65 years requiring ECMO for cardiogenic shock is poor and less commonly includes transition to definitive advanced therapies. Although we must stress that no patient should be denied ECMO based solely on age, we believe our results may be helpful for providers when counseling patients and their families.

The effect of catheter-directed thrombolytic use on readmission rates and in-hospital outcomes among cancer patients with venous thromboembolism in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Cancer inducing a hypercoagulable state, venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. We assessed the impacts of cancer on the likelihood for readmission after a VTE-targeted procedure. METHODS: We created a new cohort using discharge-level data from all hospitalizations from State Inpatient Databases of geographically dispersed participating states (18-27 states). RESULTS: In those presenting with VTE during index-admission (619 241), 2.4% patients underwent catheter directed thrombolytic therapy (CDL) on index admission and among those 20.3% had cancer. Moreover, the 30-day readmission rate amongst CDL recipients (10 776 overall) was 14.3% in those with cancer compared to 8.8% in those with no cancer history (P < .0001). Additionally, in-hospital mortality (5.7% vs 1.1%; P = 0.009) and cost-of-care ($11 014 ± 914 vs $10 520 ± 534; P = .04) was significantly higher in cancer compared to noncancer. CONCLUSION: The use of CDL does not appear to reduce the risk of returning for a VTE-related admission in cancer.

Readmission after inferior vena cava filter placement for acute venous thromboembolism in the United States: Impact of a cancer diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Inferior vena cava filter (IVCF) use is common after a venous thromboembolic event (VTE). Cancer is associated with higher rates of VTEs and is also seen in a significant proportion of patients requiring IVCF. As hospital readmissions remain a frequently scrutinized metric, we sought to evaluate the impact of cancer on hospital-readmission rates and in-hospital outcomes among patients with VTEs who received an IVCF. METHODS: Leveraging the 2013 to 2014 Nationwide Readmission Database, we identified adult patients presenting with a VTE in the United States and evaluated 30-day readmission rates and readmission in-hospital outcomes postindex-admission. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with readmission after an index-procedure, including traditional and nontraditional cardiovascular risk factors, as well as hospital-level characteristics. RESULTS: Among the 619 241 patients presenting with a VTE at index-admission, 11.2% of patients received IVCF on index-admission, of which 30.9% had cancer. The 30-day readmission rate amongst IVCF recipients was 15.8% (N = 10 927), and 19.9% amongst those with cancer compared to 13.9% in patients without cancer (P < .001). Moreover, cancer patients had longer lengths of stay in the hospital (4.5 ± 0.2 vs 4.0 ± 0.1 days; P = .02), higher cost of care ($10 900 ± 308 vs $9242 ± 206; P = .007), but no difference in mortality (8.3% vs 6.3%; P = .70) during readmission compared to noncancer patients. CONCLUSION: Readmission after IVCF placement is common. In patients readmitted after an IVCF implantation, those with cancer have longer hospital stays and higher costs of care. However, in-hospital mortality is similar to those without cancer.

Predictive Abilities of Machine Learning Techniques May Be Limited by Dataset Characteristics: Insights From the UNOS Database.

BACKGROUND: Traditional statistical approaches to prediction of outcomes have drawbacks when applied to large clinical databases. It is hypothesized that machine learning methodologies might overcome these limitations by considering higher-dimensional and nonlinear relationships among patient variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Unified Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database was queried from 1987 to 2014 for adult patients undergoing cardiac transplantation. The dataset was divided into 3 time periods corresponding to major allocation adjustments and based on geographic regions. For our outcome of 1-year survival, we used the standard statistical methods logistic regression, ridge regression, and regressions with LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and compared them with the machine learning methodologies neural networks, naïve-Bayes, tree-augmented naïve-Bayes, support vector machines, random forest, and stochastic gradient boosting. Receiver operating characteristic curves and C-statistics were calculated for each model. C-Statistics were used for comparison of discriminatory capacity across models in the validation sample. After identifying 56,477 patients, the major univariate predictors of 1-year survival after heart transplantation were consistent with earlier reports and included age, renal function, body mass index, liver function tests, and hemodynamics. Advanced analytic models demonstrated similarly modest discrimination capabilities compared with traditional models (C-statistic ≤0.66, all). The neural network model demonstrated the highest C-statistic (0.66) but this was only slightly superior to the simple logistic regression, ridge regression, and regression with LASSO models (C-statistic = 0.65, all). Discrimination did not vary significantly across the 3 historically important time periods. CONCLUSIONS: The use of advanced analytic algorithms did not improve prediction of 1-year survival from heart transplant compared with more traditional prediction models. The prognostic abilities of machine learning techniques may be limited by quality of the clinical dataset.