Ecosystem warming extends vegetation activity but heightens vulnerability to cold temperatures.

Shifts in vegetation phenology are a key example of the biological effects of climate change1-3. However, there is substantial uncertainty about whether these temperature-driven trends will continue, or whether other factors-for example, photoperiod-will become more important as warming exceeds the bounds of historical variability4,5. Here we use phenological transition dates derived from digital repeat photography6 to show that experimental whole-ecosystem warming treatments7 of up to +9 °C linearly correlate with a delayed autumn green-down and advanced spring green-up of the dominant woody species in a boreal Picea-Sphagnum bog. Results were confirmed by direct observation of both vegetative and reproductive phenology of these and other bog plant species, and by multiple years of observations. There was little evidence that the observed responses were constrained by photoperiod. Our results indicate a likely extension of the period of vegetation activity by 1-2 weeks under a 'CO2 stabilization' climate scenario (+2.6 ± 0.7 °C), and 3-6 weeks under a 'high-CO2 emission' scenario (+5.9 ± 1.1 °C), by the end of the twenty-first century. We also observed severe tissue mortality in the warmest enclosures after a severe spring frost event. Failure to cue to photoperiod resulted in precocious green-up and a premature loss of frost hardiness8, which suggests that vulnerability to spring frost damage will increase in a warmer world9,10. Vegetation strategies that have evolved to balance tradeoffs associated with phenological temperature tracking may be optimal under historical climates, but these strategies may not be optimized for future climate regimes. These in situ experimental results are of particular importance because boreal forests have both a circumpolar distribution and a key role in the global carbon cycle11.

A high spatial resolution land surface phenology dataset for AmeriFlux and NEON sites.

Vegetation phenology is a key control on water, energy, and carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. Because vegetation canopies are heterogeneous, spatially explicit information related to seasonality in vegetation activity provides valuable information for studies that use eddy covariance measurements to study ecosystem function and land-atmosphere interactions. Here we present a land surface phenology (LSP) dataset derived at 3 m spatial resolution from PlanetScope imagery across a range of plant functional types and climates in North America. The dataset provides spatially explicit information related to the timing of phenophase changes such as the start, peak, and end of vegetation activity, along with vegetation index metrics and associated quality assurance flags for the growing seasons of 2017-2021 for 10 × 10 km windows centred over 104 eddy covariance towers at AmeriFlux and National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites. These LSP data can be used to analyse processes controlling the seasonality of ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes, to evaluate predictions from land surface models, and to assess satellite-based LSP products.