Preparing for Mpox Resurgence: Surveillance Lessons From Outbreaks in Toronto, Canada.

BACKGROUND: With many global jurisdictions, Toronto, Canada, experienced an mpox outbreak in spring/summer 2022. Cases declined following implementation of a large vaccination campaign. A surge in early 2023 led to speculation that asymptomatic and/or undetected local transmission was occurring in the city. METHODS: Mpox cases and positive laboratory results are reported to Toronto Public Health. Epidemic curves and descriptive risk factor summaries for the 2022 and 2023 outbreaks were generated. First- and second-dose vaccination was monitored. Mpox virus wastewater surveillance and whole genome sequencing were conducted to generate hypotheses about the source of the 2023 resurgence. RESULTS: An overall 515 cases were reported in spring/summer 2022 and 17 in the 2022-2023 resurgence. Wastewater data correlated with the timing of cases. Whole genome sequencing showed that 2022-2023 cases were distinct from 2022 cases and closer to sequences from another country, suggesting a new importation as a source. At the start of the resurgence, approximately 16% of first-dose vaccine recipients had completed their second dose. CONCLUSIONS: This investigation demonstrates the importance of ongoing surveillance and preparedness for mpox outbreaks. Undetected local transmission was not a likely source of the 2022-2023 resurgence. Ongoing preexposure vaccine promotion remains important to mitigate disease burden.

Characteristics of the Sexual Networks of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver: Insights from Canada's 2022 Mpox Outbreak.

BACKGROUND: The 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak disproportionately affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM). We investigated differences in GBM's sexual partner distributions across Canada's 3 largest cities and over time, and how they shaped transmission. METHODS: The Engage Cohort Study (2017-2023) recruited GBM via respondent-driven sampling in Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver (n = 2449). We compared reported sexual partner distributions across cities and periods: before COVID-19 (2017-2019), pandemic (2020-2021), and after lifting of restrictions (2021-2023). We used Bayesian regression and poststratification to model partner distributions. We estimated mpox's basic reproduction number (R0) using a risk-stratified compartmental model. RESULTS: Pre-COVID-19 pandemic distributions were comparable: fitted average partners (past 6 months) were 10.4 (95% credible interval: 9.4-11.5) in Montréal, 13.1 (11.3-15.1) in Toronto, and 10.7 (9.5-12.1) in Vancouver. Sexual activity decreased during the pandemic and increased after lifting of restrictions, but remained below prepandemic levels. Based on reported cases, we estimated R0 of 2.4 to 2.7 and similar cumulative incidences (0.7%-0.9%) across cities. CONCLUSIONS: Similar sexual partner distributions may explain comparable R0 and cumulative incidence across cities. With potential for further recovery in sexual activity, mpox vaccination and surveillance strategies should be maintained.

Examining the Influence of Imbalanced Social Contact Matrices in Epidemic Models.

Transmissible infections such as those caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread according to who contacts whom. Therefore, many epidemic models incorporate contact patterns through contact matrices. Contact matrices can be generated from social contact survey data. However, the resulting matrices are often imbalanced, such that the total number of contacts reported by group A with group B do not match those reported by group B with group A. We examined the theoretical influence of imbalanced contact matrices on the estimated basic reproduction number (R0). We then explored how imbalanced matrices may bias model-based epidemic projections using an illustrative simulation model of SARS-CoV-2 with 2 age groups (<15 and ≥15 years). Models with imbalanced matrices underestimated the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, had later time to peak incidence, and had smaller peak incidence. Imbalanced matrices also influenced cumulative infections observed per age group, as well as the estimated impact of an age-specific vaccination strategy. Stratified transmission models that do not consider contact balancing may generate biased projections of epidemic trajectory and the impact of targeted public health interventions. Therefore, modeling studies should implement and report methods used to balance contact matrices for stratified transmission models.

Challenges and Opportunities in Big Data Science to Address Health Inequities and Focus the HIV Response.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Big Data Science can be used to pragmatically guide the allocation of resources within the context of national HIV programs and inform priorities for intervention. In this review, we discuss the importance of grounding Big Data Science in the principles of equity and social justice to optimize the efficiency and effectiveness of the global HIV response. RECENT FINDINGS: Social, ethical, and legal considerations of Big Data Science have been identified in the context of HIV research. However, efforts to mitigate these challenges have been limited. Consequences include disciplinary silos within the field of HIV, a lack of meaningful engagement and ownership with and by communities, and potential misinterpretation or misappropriation of analyses that could further exacerbate health inequities. Big Data Science can support the HIV response by helping to identify gaps in previously undiscovered or understudied pathways to HIV acquisition and onward transmission, including the consequences for health outcomes and associated comorbidities. However, in the absence of a guiding framework for equity, alongside meaningful collaboration with communities through balanced partnerships, a reliance on big data could continue to reinforce inequities within and across marginalized populations.

Enhancing detection of SARS-CoV-2 re-infections using longitudinal sero-monitoring: demonstration of a methodology in a cohort of people experiencing homelessness in Toronto, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Accurate estimation of SARS-CoV-2 re-infection is crucial to understanding the connection between infection burden and adverse outcomes. However, relying solely on PCR testing results in underreporting. We present a novel approach that includes longitudinal serologic data, and compared it against testing alone among people experiencing homelessness. METHODS: We recruited 736 individuals experiencing homelessness in Toronto, Canada, between June and September 2021. Participants completed surveys and provided saliva and blood serology samples every three months over 12 months of follow-up. Re-infections were defined as: positive PCR or rapid antigen test (RAT) results > 90 days after initial infection; new serologic evidence of infection among individuals with previous infection who sero-reverted; or increases in anti-nucleocapsid in seropositive individuals whose levels had begun to decrease. RESULTS: Among 381 participants at risk, we detected 37 re-infections through PCR/RAT and 98 re-infections through longitudinal serology. The comprehensive method identified 37.4 re-infection events per 100 person-years, more than four-fold more than the rate detected through PCR/RAT alone (9.0 events/100 person-years). Almost all test-confirmed re-infections (85%) were also detectable by longitudinal serology. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal serology significantly enhances the detection of SARS-CoV-2 re-infections. Our findings underscore the importance and value of combining data sources for effective research and public health surveillance.

Differential Patterns by Area-Level Social Determinants of Health in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-Related Mortality and Non-COVID-19 Mortality: A Population-Based Study of 11.8 Million People in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Social determinants of health (SDOH) have been associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. We examined patterns in COVID-19-related mortality by SDOH and compared these patterns to those for non-COVID-19 mortality. METHODS: Residents of Ontario, Canada, aged ≥20 years were followed from 1 March 2020 to 2 March 2021. COVID-19-related death was defined as death within 30 days following or 7 days prior to a positive COVID-19 test. Area-level SDOH from the 2016 census included median household income; proportion with diploma or higher educational attainment; proportion essential workers, racially minoritized groups, recent immigrants, apartment buildings, and high-density housing; and average household size. We examined associations between SDOH and COVID-19-related mortality, and non-COVID-19 mortality using cause-specific hazard models. RESULTS: Of 11 810 255 individuals, we observed 3880 COVID-19-related deaths and 88 107 non-COVID-19 deaths. After accounting for demographics, baseline health, and other area-level SDOH, the following were associated with increased hazards of COVID-19-related death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: lower income (1.30 [1.04-1.62]), lower educational attainment (1.27 [1.07-1.52]), higher proportions essential workers (1.28 [1.05-1.57]), racially minoritized groups (1.42 [1.08-1.87]), apartment buildings (1.25 [1.07-1.46]), and large vs medium household size (1.30 [1.12-1.50]). Areas with higher proportion racially minoritized groups were associated with a lower hazard of non-COVID-19 mortality (0.88 [0.84-0.92]). CONCLUSIONS: Area-level SDOH are associated with COVID-19-related mortality after accounting for demographic and clinical factors. COVID-19 has reversed patterns of lower non-COVID-19 mortality among racially minoritized groups. Pandemic responses should include strategies to address disproportionate risks and inequitable coverage of preventive interventions associated with SDOH.

Clinical Severity of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron Variant Relative to Delta in British Columbia, Canada: A Retrospective Analysis of Whole-Genome Sequenced Cases.

BACKGROUND: In late 2021, the Omicron severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant emerged and rapidly replaced Delta as the dominant variant. The increased transmissibility of Omicron led to surges in case rates and hospitalizations; however, the true severity of the variant remained unclear. We aimed to provide robust estimates of Omicron severity relative to Delta. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted with data from the British Columbia COVID-19 Cohort, a large provincial surveillance platform with linkage to administrative datasets. To capture the time of cocirculation with Omicron and Delta, December 2021 was chosen as the study period. Whole-genome sequencing was used to determine Omicron and Delta variants. To assess the severity (hospitalization, intensive care unit [ICU] admission, length of stay), we conducted adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, weighted by inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW). RESULTS: The cohort was composed of 13 128 individuals (7729 Omicron and 5399 Delta). There were 419 coronavirus disease 2019 hospitalizations, with 118 (22%) among people diagnosed with Omicron (crude rate = 1.5% Omicron, 5.6% Delta). In multivariable IPTW analysis, Omicron was associated with a 50% lower risk of hospitalization compared with Delta (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.43 to 0.59), a 73% lower risk of ICU admission (aHR = 0.27, 95% CI = 0.19 to 0.38), and a 5-day shorter hospital stay (aß = -5.03, 95% CI = -8.01 to -2.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis supports findings from other studies that have demonstrated lower risk of severe outcomes in Omicron-infected individuals relative to Delta.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination Is Associated With Reduced Outpatient Antibiotic Prescribing in Older Adults With Confirmed Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2: A Population-Wide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics are frequently prescribed unnecessarily in outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We sought to evaluate factors associated with antibiotic prescribing in outpatients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. METHODS: We performed a population-wide cohort study of outpatients aged ≥66 years with polymerase chain reaction-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2021 in Ontario, Canada. We determined rates of antibiotic prescribing within 1 week before (prediagnosis) and 1 week after (postdiagnosis) reporting of the positive SARS-CoV-2 result, compared to a self-controlled period (baseline). We evaluated predictors of prescribing, including a primary-series COVID-19 vaccination, in univariate and multivariable analyses. RESULTS: We identified 13 529 eligible nursing home residents and 50 885 eligible community-dwelling adults with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the nursing home and community residents, 3020 (22%) and 6372 (13%), respectively, received at least 1 antibiotic prescription within 1 week of a SARS-CoV-2 positive result. Antibiotic prescribing in nursing home and community residents occurred, respectively, at 15.0 and 10.5 prescriptions per 1000 person-days prediagnosis and 20.9 and 9.8 per 1000 person-days postdiagnosis, higher than the baseline rates of 4.3 and 2.5 prescriptions per 1000 person-days. COVID-19 vaccination was associated with reduced prescribing in nursing home and community residents, with adjusted postdiagnosis incidence rate ratios (95% confidence interval) of 0.7 (0.4-1) and 0.3 (0.3-0.4), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic prescribing was high and with little or no decline following SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis but was reduced in COVID-19-vaccinated individuals, highlighting the importance of vaccination and antibiotic stewardship in older adults with COVID-19.

Testing Whether Higher Contact Among the Vaccinated Can Be a Mechanism for Observed Negative Vaccine Effectiveness.

Evidence from early observational studies suggested negative vaccine effectiveness (${V}_{Eff}$) for the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant. Since true ${V}_{Eff}$ is unlikely to be negative, we explored how differences in contact among vaccinated persons (e.g., potentially from the implementation of vaccine mandates) could lead to observed negative ${V}_{Eff}$. Using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) transmission model, we examined how vaccinated-contact heterogeneity, defined as an increase in the contact rate only between vaccinated individuals, interacted with 2 mechanisms of vaccine efficacy: vaccine efficacy against susceptibility ($V{E}_S$) and vaccine efficacy against infectiousness ($V{E}_I$), to produce underestimated and in some cases, negative measurements of ${V}_{Eff}$. We found that vaccinated-contact heterogeneity led to negative estimates when $V{E}_I$, and especially $V{E}_S$, were low. Moreover, we determined that when contact heterogeneity was very high, ${V}_{Eff}$ could still be underestimated given relatively high vaccine efficacies (0.7), although its effect on ${V}_{Eff}$ was strongly reduced. We also found that this contact heterogeneity mechanism generated a signature temporal pattern: The largest underestimates and negative measurements of ${V}_{Eff}$ occurred during epidemic growth. Overall, our research illustrates how vaccinated-contact heterogeneity could have feasibly produced negative measurements during the Omicron period and highlights its general ability to bias observational studies of ${V}_{Eff}$.

Clinical severity of Omicron subvariants BA.1, BA.2, and BA.5 in a population-based cohort study in British Columbia, Canada.

The SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron emerged in late 2021. In British Columbia (BC), Canada, and globally, three genetically distinct subvariants of Omicron, BA.1, BA.2, and BA.5, emerged and became dominant successively within an 8-month period. SARS-CoV-2 subvariants continue to circulate in the population, acquiring new mutations that have the potential to alter infectivity, immunity, and disease severity. Here, we report a propensity-matched severity analysis from residents of BC over the course of the Omicron wave, including 39,237 individuals infected with BA.1, BA.2, or BA.5 based on paired high-quality sequence data and linked to comprehensive clinical outcomes data between December 23, 2021 and August 31, 2022. Relative to BA.1, BA.2 cases were associated with a 15% and 28% lower risk of hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission (aHRhospital = 1.17; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.096-1.252; aHRICU = 1.368; 95% CI = 1.152-1.624), whereas BA.5 infections were associated with an 18% higher risk of hospitalization (aHRhospital = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.133-1.224) after accounting for age, sex, comorbidities, vaccination status, geography, and social determinants of health. Phylogenetic analysis revealed no specific subclades associated with more severe clinical outcomes for any Omicron subvariant. In summary, BA.1, BA.2, and BA.5 subvariants were associated with differences in clinical severity, emphasizing how variant-specific monitoring programs remain critical components of patient and population-level public health responses as the pandemic continues.

Exploring the dynamics of the 2022 mpox outbreak in Canada.

The 2022 mpox outbreak predominantly impacted gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM). Two models were developed to support situational awareness and management decisions in Canada. A compartmental model characterized epidemic drivers at national/provincial levels, while an agent-based model (ABM) assessed municipal-level impacts of vaccination. The models were parameterized and calibrated using empirical case and vaccination data between 2022 and 2023. The compartmental model explored: (1) the epidemic trajectory through community transmission, (2) the potential for transmission among non-gbMSM, and (3) impacts of vaccination and the proportion of gbMSM contributing to disease transmission. The ABM incorporated sexual-contact data and modeled: (1) effects of vaccine uptake on disease dynamics, and (2) impacts of case importation on outbreak resurgence. The calibrated, compartmental model followed the trajectory of the epidemic, which peaked in July 2022, and died out in December 2022. Most cases occurred among gbMSM, and epidemic trajectories were not consistent with sustained transmission among non-gbMSM. The ABM suggested that unprioritized vaccination strategies could increase the outbreak size by 47%, and that consistent importation (≥5 cases per 10 000) is necessary for outbreak resurgence. These models can inform time-sensitive situational awareness and policy decisions for similar future outbreaks.

Prevalence of depression, syndemic factors and their impact on viral suppression among female sex workers living with HIV in eThekwini, South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Over half of female sex workers (FSW) in South Africa are living with HIV and clinical depression has been frequently documented among FSW. Data characterizing structural determinants of depression and the role of syndemic theory, synergistically interacting disease states, on viral suppression among FSW in South Africa are limited. METHODS: Between July 2018-March 2020, non-pregnant, cisgender women (≥ 18 years), reporting sex work as their primary income source, and diagnosed with HIV for ≥ 6 months were enrolled into the Siyaphambili trial in eThekwini, South Africa. Using baseline data, robust Poisson regression models were used to assess correlates of depression and associations between depression and syndemic factors on viral suppression. RESULTS: Of 1,384 participants, 459 (33%) screened positive for depression, defined as a score of ≥ 10 on the PHQ-9. Physical and sexual violence, drug use, alcohol use, anticipated stigma and internalized stigma were univariately associated with depression (all p's < 0.05) and included the multivariate model. In the multivariate regression, prevalence of depression was higher among participants experiencing sexual violence (PR = 1.47 95% CI:1.24,1.73), physical violence 5 times or more in < 6 months (PR = 1.38 95% CI:1.07, 1.80), using illicit drugs in the last month (PR = 1.23 95%:CI 1.04, 1.48), and reporting higher levels of internalized stigma (PR = 1.11, 95% CI:1.04,1.18). Depression in the absence of the Substance Abuse, Violence and AIDS SAVA syndemic factors was associated with increased prevalence of unsuppressed viral load (aPR 1.24; 95% CI:1.08,1.43), and the SAVA substance use and violence syndemic was associated with an increase in unsuppressed viral load among non-depressed FSW (aPR 1.13; 95% CI:1.01, 1.26). Compared to those experiencing neither factors, those jointly experiencing depression and the SAVA syndemics were at increased risk for unsuppressed viral load (aPR 1.15; 95% CI:1.02,1.28). CONCLUSION: Substance use, violence, and stigma were all associated with depression. Depression and syndemic factors (substance use + violence) were related to unsuppressed viral load; we did not observe higher unsuppressed viral load amongst those experiencing both depression and syndemic factors. Our findings point to the need to understand the unmet mental health needs of FSW living with HIV. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trial Number: NCT03500172.

A cross-sectional survey exploring HIV and HCV prevalence among men who purchase sex in Dnipro, Ukraine.

BACKGROUND: HIV programming in Ukraine largely targets "key population" groups. Men who purchase sex are not directly reached. The aim of our study was to explore the prevalence of sexually transmitted and blood-borne infections (STBBIs) among men who purchase sex from female sex workers. METHODS: Following geographic mapping and population size estimation at each "hotspot", we conducted a cross-sectional bio-behavioural survey with men who purchase sex between September 2017 and March 2018 in Dnipro, Ukraine. Eligibility criteria included purchasing sex services at a "hotspot" and being ≥ 18 years. Participants completed a structured questionnaire, followed by HIV/HCV rapid testing and a dried blood spot (DBS) sample collection for confirmatory serology. RESULTS: The study enrolled 370 participants. The median age was 32 (interquartile range [IQR] = 27-38) and the median age of first purchase of sexual services was 22 (IQR = 19-27). Over half (56%) of participants reported ever testing for HIV; four participants (2%, N = 206) reported having tested positive for HIV, with three out of the four reporting being on ART. Forty percent of participants had ever tested for HCV, with three (2%, N = 142) having ever tested positive for HCV. In DBS testing, nine participants (2.4%) tested positive for HIV and 24 (6.5%) tested positive for ever having an HCV infection. CONCLUSION: Prevalence of HIV and HCV in this population was high. Given high rates of study enrolment and testing, efforts should be made to reach men who purchase sex with expanded STBBI programming.

Routinized Syphilis Screening Among Men Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Stepped Wedge Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: We implemented an opt-out clinic-based intervention pairing syphilis tests with routine human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) viral load testing. The primary objective was to determine the degree to which this intervention increased the detection of early syphilis. METHODS: The Enhanced Syphilis Screening Among HIV-Positive Men (ESSAHM) Trial was a stepped wedge cluster-randomized controlled trial involving 4 urban HIV clinics in Ontario, Canada, from 2015 to 2017. The population was HIV-positive adult males. The intervention was standing orders for syphilis serological testing with viral loads, and control was usual practice. We obtained test results via linkage with the centralized provincial laboratory and defined cases using a standardized clinical worksheet and medical record review. We employed a generalized linear mixed model with a logit link to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the intervention. RESULTS: A total of 3895 men were followed over 7471 person-years. The mean number of syphilis tests increased from 0.53 to 2.02 tests per person per year. There were 217 new diagnoses of syphilis (control, 81; intervention, 136), for which 147 (68%) were cases of early syphilis (control, 61 [75%]; intervention, 86 [63%]). The annualized proportion with newly detected early syphilis increased from 0.009 to 0.032 with implementation of the intervention; the corresponding time-adjusted OR was 1.25 (95% CI, .71-2.20). CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of standing orders for syphilis testing with HIV viral loads was feasible and increased testing, yet produced less-than-expected increases in case detection compared to past uncontrolled pre-post trials. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02019043.

Maximizing the impact of limited vaccine supply under different early epidemic conditions: a 2-city modelling analysis of monkeypox virus transmission among men who have sex with men.

BACKGROUND: The current global monkeypox virus (MPXV) outbreak has disproportionately affected gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Given that many jurisdictions have been faced with limited supplies of MPXV vaccine, we aimed to explore optimal vaccine allocation between 2 linked GBMSM transmission networks over a short-term time horizon, across several epidemic conditions. METHODS: We constructed a deterministic compartmental MPXV transmission model. We parameterized the model to reflect 2 representative, partially connected GBMSM sexual networks ( cities), using 2022 data from Ontario. We simulated a roll-out of 5000 vaccine doses over 30 days that started 45 days after epidemic seeding with 10 imported cases. Within this model, we varied the relative city (network) sizes, epidemic potentials (R 0), between-city mixing and distribution of seed cases between cities. For each combination of varied factors, we identified the allocation of doses between cities that maximized infections averted by day 90. RESULTS: Under our modelling assumptions, we found that a limited MPXV vaccine supply could generally avert more early infections when prioritized to networks that were larger, had more initial infections or had greater R 0. Greater between-city mixing decreased the influence of initial seed cases and increased the influence of city R 0 on optimal allocation. Under mixed conditions (e.g., fewer seed cases but greater R 0), optimal allocation required doses shared between cities. INTERPRETATION: In the context of the current global MPXV outbreak, we showed that prioritization of a limited supply of vaccines based on network-level factors can help maximize infections averted during an emerging epidemic. Such prioritization should be grounded in an understanding of context-specific risk drivers and should acknowledge potential connectedness of multiple transmission networks.

Geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases by social determinants of health in metropolitan areas in Canada: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding inequalities in SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with the social determinants of health could help the development of effective mitigation strategies that are responsive to local transmission dynamics. This study aims to quantify social determinants of geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases across 16 census metropolitan areas (hereafter, cities) in 4 Canadian provinces, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. METHODS: We used surveillance data on confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and census data for social determinants at the level of the dissemination area (DA). We calculated Gini coefficients to determine the overall geographic heterogeneity of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in each city, and calculated Gini covariance coefficients to determine each city's heterogeneity by each social determinant (income, education, housing density and proportions of visible minorities, recent immigrants and essential workers). We visualized heterogeneity using Lorenz (concentration) curves. RESULTS: We observed geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases in cities, as half of the cumulative cases were concentrated in DAs containing 21%-35% of their population, with the greatest geographic heterogeneity in Ontario cities (Gini coefficients 0.32-0.47), followed by British Columbia (0.23-0.36), Manitoba (0.32) and Quebec (0.28-0.37). Cases were disproportionately concentrated in areas with lower income and educational attainment, and in areas with a higher proportion of visible minorities, recent immigrants, high-density housing and essential workers. Although a consistent feature across cities was concentration by the proportion of visible minorities, the magnitude of concentration by social determinant varied across cities. INTERPRETATION: Geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases was observed in all of the included cities, but the pattern by social determinants varied. Geographically prioritized allocation of resources and services should be tailored to the local drivers of inequalities in transmission in response to the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2.

Human monkeypox: a comparison of the characteristics of the new epidemic to the endemic disease.

In May 2022, a new global outbreak of mpox (formerly, human monkeypox) emerged that was declared a public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization on July 23, 2022. With new patterns of person-to-person spread within sexual networks in nonendemic countries and several differences from the classic disease course, we performed a comprehensive review of existing literature on human monkeypox to discuss epidemiology, modes of transmission, clinical presentation and asymptomatic infection, diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines with the primary aim to identify important areas for future research of this new epidemic form of the disease. A comprehensive literature search was performed of all published literature to August 15, 2022. Historically, in regions of monkeypox virus endemicity, human outbreaks have occurred related to discrete zoonotic events. The animal reservoir is unknown, but the virus has been isolated from rodents. Traditionally, transmission occurred by direct or indirect contact with an infected animal. In nonendemic countries affected in the 2022 outbreak, almost exclusive person-to-person spread has been observed, and most cases are connected to sexual networks of gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men. After an incubation period of approximately 13 days, in traditional human cases affected persons developed a febrile prodrome preceding a rash that started on the face and body, spread centrifugally to the palms and soles and healed monomorphically over two to four weeks. However, in the 2022 outbreak, the febrile illness is often absent or occurs after the onset of the rash. The rash presents primarily in the anogenital region and face before disseminating throughout the body, with lesions displaying regional pleomorphism. There is a paucity of data for the role of antiviral agents or vaccines. The epidemiology and clinical course of mpox has changed in the 2022 epidemic from that observed with the endemic disease. There is an urgent need to establish rapid and collaborative research platforms to diagnose, treat and prevent disease and inform important public health and other strategies to stop the spread of disease.

Past dynamics of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in Montréal, Canada: a mathematical modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM) experience disproportionate risks of HIV acquisition and transmission. In 2017, Montréal became the first Canadian Fast-Track City, setting the 2030 goal of zero new HIV infections. To inform local elimination efforts, we estimate the evolving role of prevention and sexual behaviours on HIV transmission dynamics among gbMSM in Montréal between 1975 and 2019. METHODS: Data from local bio-behavioural surveys were analyzed to develop, parameterize, and calibrate an agent-based model of sexual HIV transmission. Partnership dynamics, HIV's natural history, and treatment and prevention strategies were considered. The model simulations were analyzed to estimate the fraction of HIV acquisitions and transmissions attributable to specific groups, with a focus on age, sexual partnering level, and gaps in the HIV care-continuum. RESULTS: The model-estimated HIV incidence peaked in 1985 (2.3 per 100 person years (PY); 90% CrI: 1.4-2.9 per 100 PY) and decreased to 0.1 per 100 PY (90% CrI: 0.04-0.3 per 100 PY) in 2019. Between 2000-2017, the majority of HIV acquisitions and transmissions occurred among men aged 25-44 years, and men aged 35-44 thereafter. The unmet prevention needs of men with > 10 annual anal sex partners contributed 90-93% of transmissions and 67-73% of acquisitions annually. The primary stage of HIV played an increasing role over time, contributing to 11-22% of annual transmissions over 2000-2019. In 2019, approximately 70% of transmission events occurred from men who had discontinued, or never initiated antiretroviral therapy. CONCLUSIONS: The evolving HIV landscape has contributed to the declining HIV incidence among gbMSM in Montréal. The shifting dynamics identified in this study highlight the need for continued population-level surveillance to identify gaps in the HIV care continuum and core groups on which to prioritize elimination efforts.

HIV- and sex work-related stigmas and quality of life of female sex workers living with HIV in South Africa: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Environmental quality of life (QoL) assesses individually perceived factors such as physical safety and security, accessibility, quality of healthcare, and physical environment. These factors are particularly relevant in the context of sex work and HIV, where stigma has been identified as an important barrier across several prevention and treatment domains. This study aims to examine the association between different types of HIV- and sex work-related stigmas and environmental QoL among female sex workers (FSW) living with HIV in Durban, South Africa. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional analyses using baseline data from the Siyaphambili randomized controlled trial. FSW who reported sex work as their primary source of income and had been diagnosed with HIV for ≥ 6 months were enrolled from June 2018-March 2020, in eThekwini, South Africa. We evaluated the association between environmental QoL, dichotomizing the environmental domain score collected by the WHO Quality of Life HIV Brief (WHOQOL-HIV BREF) questionnaire at the median, and stigma using modified robust Poisson regression models. Five stigma subscales were assessed: sex work-related (anticipated, enacted, or internalized stigma) and HIV-related (anticipated or enacted stigma). RESULTS: Among 1373 FSW, the median environmental QoL was 10.5 out of 20 [IQR: 9.0-12.5; range 4.0-19.0], while the median overall QoL was 3 out of 5 [IQR: 2-4; range 1-5]. One-third of FSW (n = 456) fell above the median environmental QoL score, while 67% were above the median overall QoL (n = 917). Reporting anticipated sex work stigma was associated with lower environmental QoL (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 0.74 [95% CI 0.61, 0.90]), as was severe internalized sex work stigma (aPR: 0.64, 95% CI 0.48, 0.86). Reporting enacted HIV stigma versus none was similarly associated with lower environmental QoL (aPR: 0.65, 95% CI 0.49, 0.87). Enacted sex work stigma and anticipated HIV stigma were not statistically associated with environmental QoL. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the need to consider the impact of multiple stigmas on FSW's non-HIV related clinical outcomes, including safety and physical well-being. Moreover, these results suggest that addressing underlying structural risks may support the impact of more proximal HIV prevention and treatment interventions. Trial registration NCT03500172 (April 17, 2018).

Modeling the potential impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV among men who have sex with men in Cameroon.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) are consistently burdened by HIV at higher levels than other adults. While HIV prevention programs for MSM are growing in coverage and quality, HIV incidence remains high. In response, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was introduced in 2019 to support HIV risk reduction among MSM in Cameroon. Understanding how PrEP initiation programs will change the HIV prevalence among MSM in Cameroon is important to developing effective programs. METHODS: This study uses a mathematical model to simulate population-level HIV transmission among MSM in the cities of Yaoundé and Douala, Cameroon. PrEP is incorporated into the model at rates that equal 25%, 50%, or 75% coverage after twenty years to assess the potential effects on HIV prevalence among MSM, requiring annual initiation rates of 2.5%, 6.8%, and 17.2% for Yaoundé and 2.2%, 5.6%, and 13.4% for Douala, respectively. The data utilized for this model are from a cross sectional study which recruited MSM through respondent-driven sampling of MSM in two major cities in Cameroon: Yaoundé and Douala. RESULTS: The model estimated an HIV prevalence of 43.2% among MSM, annual HIV diagnoses of 300 per 10,000 MSM and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage of 53.9% in Yaoundé. In Douala, estimated prevalence is 26.5% among MSM, 167 per 10,000 MSM annual diagnoses and ART coverage of 72.0%. Standalone PrEP interventions aimed at 50% coverage at the end of a 20-year program would reduce the prevalence from 43.2% to 35.4% in Yaoundé and from 26.5 to 20.1% in Douala. Combining PrEP with a 10% increase in HIV testing would decrease the number of MSM living with HIV and unaware of their status from 9.8 to 6.0% in Yaoundé and from 8.7 to 4.6% in Douala. CONCLUSIONS: PrEP would be beneficial in reducing prevalence even at varying initiation and coverage levels. Combination of PrEP and increased HIV testing further decreased the number of undiagnosed MSM. This study supports the utility of implementing PrEP as part of comprehensive HIV prevention programming among MSM in Cameroon.