Understanding the dynamics of the obesity transition associated with physical activity, sedentary lifestyle, and consumption of ultra-processed foods in Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: We investigate the obesity transition at the country- and regional-levels, by age, gender, and socioeconomic status (SES) and its relationship to three health behavior attributes, including physical activity (PA), sedentary activities (ST), and consumption of ultra-processed foods (CUPF) within the urban population of Colombia, from 20,010 to 2050. METHODS: The study is informed by cross-sectional data from ENSIN survey. We used these data to develop a system dynamics model that simulates the dynamics of obesity by body mass index (BMI) categories, gender, and SES. This model also uses a conservative co-flow structure for three health-related behaviors (PA, ST, and CUPF). RESULTS: At the national level, our results indicate that the burden of obesity is shifting towards populations with lower SES as the gross domestic product (GDP) increases, particularly women aged 20-59 years with lower SES. Among this group of women, the highest burden of obesity is among those who do not meet the PA, ST and CUPF recommendations. At the regional level, our findings suggest that the regions are at different stages in the obesity transition. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of obesity is shifting towards women with lower SES as GDP increases at the national level and across several regions. This obesity transition is paralleled by a high prevalence of women from low SES groups who do not meet the minimum recommendations for PA, CUPF, and ST. Our findings can be used by decision-makers to inform age- and SES- specific policies seeking to tackle the obesity.

Our Voice in a rural community: empowering Colombian adolescents to advocate for school community well-being through citizen science.

BACKGROUND: Santa Ana is home to an Afro-descendant rural population of the island of Barú in Cartagena, Colombia. While a popular area for tourism, Santa Ana's population is affected by multidimensional poverty, precarious work conditions, homelessness, broken streets and sewer systems, limited quality education, and a lack of recreation and sport spaces. While Santa Ana's Community Action Board aims to unify efforts and resources to solve these problems, the state's capacity to meet the requirements of the Board is limited. METHODS: We evaluated the relationship between healthy lifestyles and characteristics of Santa Ana's school using the Our Voice Citizen Science Research Method. This systemic approach combines information and communication technologies with group facilitation to empower adolescents to: 1) collect and discuss data about factors in their local environments that facilitate or hinder well-being within their school community; 2) identify relevant local stakeholders who could help to address the issues identified; and 3) advocate collectively for local improvements to support increased well-being at a community level. RESULTS: Eleven citizen scientists ages 13 to 17 years from the science club of Institución Educativa Santa Ana were recruited and together conducted 11 walks within the school to collect data about the facilitators and barriers to student well-being. They identified barriers to well-being related to school infrastructure, furniture, bathrooms, and sense of belonging. They then advocated with school stakeholders and reached agreements on concrete actions to address identified barriers, including fostering a culture among students of caring for school property and presenting their findings to the community action board. This methodology allowed the community to realize how students can become agents of change and take collective action when motivated by solution-oriented methodologies such as Our Voice. Project ripple effects, including greater empowerment and participation in collective actions by students, also were observed. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the importance of the school's built environment in the well-being of students in rural areas. The Our Voice method provided the opportunity to inform school-based interventions, and promoted ripple effects that expanded productive dialogue to the community level and generated systemic actions involving actors outside of the school community.

Cross-sector co-creation of a community-based physical activity program for breast cancer survivors in Colombia.

Benefits of physical activity (PA) in breast cancer survivors (BCS) are well established. However, programs to promote PA among BCS tailored to real-world contexts within low- to middle-income countries are limited. Cross-sector co-creation can be key to effective and scalable programs for BCS in these countries. This study aimed to evaluate the networking process to engage multisector stakeholders in the co-creation of a PA program for Colombian BCS called My Body. We employed a mixed-methods design including semistructured interviews, workshops and a social network analysis of centrality measures to assess stakeholders' engagement, resources and skills enabling the collaborative work, challenges, outcomes and lessons learned. The descriptive analysis and the centrality measures of the network revealed that 19 cross-sector stakeholders engaged in the My Body collaborative network. Through ongoing communication and cooperation, My Body built relationships between the academic lead institutions (local and international), and local and national public, private and academic institutions working in public health, sports and recreation, social sciences and engineering fields. The outcomes included the co-creation of the community-based PA program for BCS, its implementation through cross-sector synergies, increased relationships and communications among stakeholders, and successful dissemination of evidence and project results to the collaboration partners and other relevant stakeholders and community members. The mixed-methods assessment enabled understanding of ways to advance cross-sector co-creation of health promotion programs. The findings can help to enable continued development of sustainable cross-sector co-creation processes aimed at advancing PA promotion.

Collaborative work among stakeholders and researchers from different governmental sectors and disciplinary fields can be key to design and implement effective and scalable programs to promote physical activity (PA) among breast cancer survivors (BCS). This might be particularly critical in low- to middle-income countries where the implementation of evidence-based health-promoting programs tailored to real-world contexts are limited. This study aimed to evaluate the networking process to engage multisector stakeholders in the co-creation of a PA program for Colombian BCS. We employed qualitative methods and social network analyses to assess stakeholders' engagement, resources and skills enabling the collaborative work, challenges, outcomes and lessons learned. The co-creation of the program improved synergies between research, policy and practice. Communication through several channels including e-mail and workshops was the key resource to advance the collaborative work. Stakeholders underscored that cross-sector networking allowed allocating resources and achieving shared goals. Sustainable cross-sector collaborative processes are key for health promotion.

College integration and social class.

What is the impact of social class on college integration? Higher education institutions are becoming more diverse, yet the integration of underprivileged students remains a challenge. Using a social network approach, we analyze the general integration of low socioeconomic status (SES) students, as well as how segregated by class these friends are. The object of analysis is the extreme case of an elite university that, based on a government loan program (Ser Pilo Paga), opened its doors to many low-SES students in a very unequal country, Colombia. Using a mixed methods perspective, including a survey, 61 in depth interviews, and ethnographic observation, we analyze friendship networks and their meanings, barriers, and facilitators. Contrary to the literature, we find that low-SES students had, on average, the same number of connections and were no more isolated than students from upper social classes. Also, low-SES students' networks were not more segregated, even if relations with the upper classes were less likely and required more relational work than with middle or lower class friends. This high level of social integration stemmed from the intense relational work that low-SES students engage in, so as to fit in. Middle class friends act as a catalyst that can enable cross-class friendships.

Building a Methodological Foundation for Impactful Urban Planetary Health Science.

Anthropogenic environmental change will heavily impact cities, yet associated health risks will depend significantly on decisions made by urban leaders across a wide range of non-health sectors, including transport, energy, housing, basic urban services, and others. A subset of planetary health researchers focus on understanding the urban health impacts of global environmental change, and how these vary globally and within cities. Such researchers increasingly adopt collaborative transdisciplinary approaches to engage policy-makers, private citizens, and other actors in identifying and evaluating potential policy solutions that will reduce environmental impacts in ways that simultaneously promote health, equity, and/or local economies-in other words, maximising 'co-benefits'. This report presents observations from a participatory workshop focused on challenges and opportunities for urban planetary health research. The workshop, held at the 16th International Conference on Urban Health (ICUH) in Xiamen, China, in November 2019, brought together 49 participants and covered topics related to collaboration, data, and research impact. It featured research projects funded by the Wellcome Trust's Our Planet Our Health (OPOH) programme. This report aims to concisely summarise and disseminate participants' collective contributions to current methodological practice in urban planetary health research.

Fifteen-Year Follow-Up of Stapedotomy Patients: Audiological Outcomes and Associated Factors in a Middle Income Country.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the short-term (postoperative), medium-term (5 years), and long-term (10 and 15 years) audiometric results of patients who underwent stapedotomy and to determine specific factors associated with better postoperative outcomes. METHODS: This study is a retrospective case review of 486 ears with surgically confirmed stapes fixation who underwent microscopic small fenestra stapedotomy. Preoperative, postoperative, and medium- and long-term air conduction (AC), bone conduction (BC), and air-bone gap (ABG) were assessed. Postoperative factors associated with better postoperative outcomes were evaluated. RESULTS: At 10- and 15-year follow-ups, ABG, AC, and BC were significantly deteriorated but clinically preserved in comparison with postoperative results. According to a multiple quantile regression, younger age was associated with better postoperative results at 0.25 kHz (p = 0.003) and 4 kHz (p = 0.028) and a smaller preoperative ABG was associated with better audiometric results at 0.25 kHz (p = 0.048), 0.5 kHz (p = 0.001), and 4 kHz (p = 0.001). In addition, younger age (p = 0.001 for AC and p < 0.001 for BC) and preoperative AC PTA (p < 0.001 for AC) were significantly associated with better postoperative AC and BC PTA. CONCLUSIONS: Stapedotomy surgery provides short-, medium-, and long-term hearing benefits in our studied cohort. ABG, AC, and BC thresholds obtained after the surgery are clinically preserved in 5-, 10-, and 15-year follow-ups, with an age-expected BC deterioration. Smaller preoperative ABG and younger age were positive predictors for better postoperative ABG. Future research should address long-term subjective and quality of life outcomes.

Socio-environmental and psychosocial predictors of smoking susceptibility among adolescents with contrasting socio-cultural characteristics: a comparative analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite a steady decline in adolescent smoking globally, it remains a prevalent risk factor for non-communicable disease. Previous research points to differences in socio-environmental and psychosocial risk factors for smoking and how they vary across different settings with disparate social and cultural characteristics. As a result, smoking rates have remained disproportionately higher in some settings while decreasing in others. This study explored the socio-environmental and psychosocial risk factors for smoking susceptibility in a high-income and upper-middle income setting. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were obtained from 1,573 male and female adolescents aged 11-15 years who completed self-administered questionnaires in schools in Northern Ireland and Bogotá, Colombia. Using logistic regression analysis, we examined how socio-environmental and psychosocial predictors of smoking susceptibility compared across the two countries. RESULTS: In Northern Ireland, reduced odds of smoking susceptibility were significantly associated with less family smoking (OR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.41-1.00); having access to information about smoking in school (OR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.59-0.96); negative attitudes towards smoking (OR: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.23-0.51); higher levels of openness (OR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.50-0.69); and higher levels of self-reported wellbeing (OR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.44-0.74). Increased odds of smoking susceptibility were associated with reporting less smoking of a mother (OR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.06-1.76); higher levels of extraversion (OR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.04-1.90); and receiving pocket money (OR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.06-1.37). In Bogotá, reduced odds of smoking susceptibility were significantly associated with reporting less smoking among friends (OR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.76-0.98); higher levels of self-efficacy (OR: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.40-0.83); greater perceived behavioural control to quit smoking (OR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.56-0.90); and lower levels of truancy (OR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.52-0.92). In Bogotá, no factors were associated with increased odds of smoking susceptibility in the final model. CONCLUSIONS: The findings illustrate that there were differences in predictors of adolescent smoking susceptibility across the two settings. By using a comparative approach we demonstrate that smoking interventions and policies must be sensitive to the cultural and normative context within which they are implemented.

A systematic review of empirical and simulation studies evaluating the health impact of transportation interventions.

Urban transportation is an important determinant of health and environmental outcomes, and therefore essential to achieving the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. To better understand the health impacts of transportation initiatives, we conducted a systematic review of longitudinal health evaluations involving: a) bus rapid transit (BRT); b) bicycle lanes; c) Open Streets programs; and d) aerial trams/cable cars. We also synthesized systems-based simulation studies of the health-related consequences of walking, bicycling, aerial tram, bus and BRT use. Two reviewers screened 3302 unique titles and abstracts identified through a systematic search of MEDLINE (Ovid), Scopus, TRID and LILACS databases. We included 39 studies: 29 longitudinal evaluations and 10 simulation studies. Five studies focused on low- and middle-income contexts. Of the 29 evaluation studies, 19 focused on single component bicycle lane interventions; the rest evaluated multi-component interventions involving: bicycle lanes (n = 5), aerial trams (n = 1), and combined bicycle lane/BRT systems (n = 4). Bicycle lanes and BRT systems appeared effective at increasing bicycle and BRT mode share, active transport duration, and number of trips using these modes. Of the 10 simulation studies, there were 9 agent-based models and one system dynamics model. Five studies focused on bus/BRT expansions and incentives, three on interventions for active travel, and the rest investigated combinations of public transport and active travel policies. Synergistic effects were observed when multiple policies were implemented, with several studies showing that sizable interventions are required to significantly shift travel mode choices. Our review indicates that bicycle lanes and BRT systems represent promising initiatives for promoting population health. There is also evidence to suggest that synergistic effects might be achieved through the combined implementation of multiple transportation policies. However, more rigorous evaluation and simulation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, aerial trams and Open Streets programs, and a more diverse set of health and health equity outcomes is required.

TransMilenio, a Scalable Bus Rapid Transit System for Promoting Physical Activity.

Transport systems can play an important role in increasing physical activity (PA). Bogotá has been recognized for its bus rapid transit (BRT) system, TransMilenio (TM). To date, BRTs have been implemented in over 160 cities worldwide. The aim of this study was to assess the association between PA and the use of TM among adults in Bogotá. The study consists of a cross-sectional study conducted from 2010 to 2011 with 1000 adults. PA was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. In a subsample of 250 adults, PA was objectively measured using ActiGraph accelerometers. Analyses were conducted using multilevel logistic regression models. The use of TM was associated with meeting moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA). TM users were more likely to complete an average of >22 min a day of MVPA (odds ratio [OR] = 3.1, confidence interval [CI] = 95 % 1.4-7.1) and to walk for transportation for ≥150 min per week (OR = 1.5; CI = 95 % 1.1-2.0). The use of TM was associated with 12 or more minutes of MVPA (95 % CI 4.5-19.4, p < 0.0001). Associations between meeting PA recommendations and use of TM did not differ by socioeconomic status (p value = 0.106) or sex (p value = 0.288). The use of TM is a promising strategy for enhancing public health efforts to reduce physical inactivity through walking for transport. Given the expansion of BRTs, these results could inform the development of transport PA programs in low- to high-income countries.

Ammonia emission model for whole farm evaluation of dairy production systems.

Ammonia (NH) emissions vary considerably among farms as influenced by climate and management. Because emission measurement is difficult and expensive, process-based models provide an alternative for estimating whole farm emissions. A model that simulates the processes of NH formation, speciation, aqueous-gas partitioning, and mass transfer was developed and incorporated in a whole farm simulation model (the Integrated Farm System Model). Farm sources included manure on the floor of the housing facility, manure in storage (if used), field-applied manure, and deposits on pasture (if grazing is used). In a comprehensive evaluation of the model, simulated daily, seasonal, and annual emissions compared well with data measured over 2 yr for five free stall barns and two manure storages on dairy farms in the eastern United States. In a further comparison with published data, simulated and measured barn emissions were similar over differing barn designs, protein feeding levels, and seasons of the year. Simulated emissions from manure storage were also highly correlated with published emission data across locations, seasons, and different storage covers. For field applied manure, the range in simulated annual emissions normally bounded reported mean values for different manure dry matter contents and application methods. Emissions from pastures measured in northern Europe across seasons and fertilization levels were also represented well by the model. After this evaluation, simulations of a representative dairy farm in Pennsylvania illustrated the effects of animal housing and manure management on whole farm emissions and their interactions with greenhouse gas emissions, nitrate leaching, production costs, and farm profitability.

Extended high-frequency hearing loss among Afro-Colombian adolescents from a rural area in Colombia: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: Research trends concerning hearing loss within teen rural populations are limited and current evidence suggests that extended high-frequency audiometry can be a sensitive tool to detect subclinical hearing loss. Moreover, current research emphasises the importance of representing different ethnic populations in science. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of acquired hearing loss through conventional pure-tone (0.25-8 kHz) and extended high frequency (EHF) (9-20 kHz) audiometry in Afro-Colombian adolescents from a rural area in Colombia. DESIGN: Observational, cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: 230 Afro-Colombian adolescents aged 13-17 years who attended high school in a rural population from Cartagena, Colombia. INTERVENTIONS: Otoscopic examination, conventional (0.25-8 kHz) and EHF (9-20 kHz) audiometry tests were performed during February-March 2021. Sociodemographic and associated factor questionnaires were also applied to assess probable factors associated with EHF hearing loss. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of acquired hearing loss using conventional and EHF audiometry, and factors associated with hearing loss. RESULTS: Of 230 adolescents who met the eligibility criteria, 133 (57.82%) were female. The mean age was 15.22 years (SD: 1.62). The prevalence of hearing loss in at least one ear assessed with conventional audiometry was 21.30% and with EHF audiometry 14.78%. The main abnormal otoscopic findings included: neotympanum (1.30%), myringosclerosis (0.87%) and monomeric scars (0.43%). Factors associated with a higher probability of EHF hearing loss found through logistic regression were older age (prevalence ratio (PR): 1.45; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.80), attending the 'Picó' four or more times a month (PR: 6.63; 95% CI 2.16 to 20.30), attending bars more than three times a month (PR: 1.14; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.59) and self-reported hearing difficulties (PR: 1.24; 95% CI 1.22 to 4.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that acquired hearing loss is already widespread among this young rural population.

Adolescent Social Networks and Physical Intimate Partner Violence Among Colombian Rural Adolescents.

The current study analyzes individual and social network correlates of adolescent engagement in physical intimate partner violence (IPV) utilizing socio-centric data from a high-school population of 242 adolescents from rural Colombia. We studied self-reported victimization and perpetration for boys and girls. First, we used logistic regression to explore the relationship between adolescents' IPV engagement and school peers' IPV engagement, school violence victimization, and social network position, controlling for gender and age (N=111). Second, we used social network statistical methods to investigate if there were more friendships of similar IPV status to the adolescent than expected by chance in their social networks. Our results show that the proportion of friends perpetrating physical IPV increased the probability of adolescents' IPV perpetration. Contrarywise, the proportion of friends experiencing IPV victimization decreased with the adolescent's own victimization. Being a victim (a status significantly more common among boys) was also associated with reporting perpetration for both genders. Furthermore, our results contradicted the social network literature, as we found no preferential ties among perpetrators/victims (e.g., adolescents do not seem to befriend each other by IPV engagement). Our study is unique to the global adolescent IPV literature given the scarcity of research examining physical IPV among adolescents in the context of both girls and boys in the context of their school networks. We also add to the understanding of IPV in the case of the global majority of adolescents with the highest rates of IPV victimization (living in Low and Middle-Income Countries).

Evidence-based intervention in physical activity: lessons from around the world.

Promotion of physical activity is a priority for health agencies. We searched for reviews of physical activity interventions, published between 2000 and 2011, and identified effective, promising, or emerging interventions from around the world. The informational approaches of community-wide and mass media campaigns, and short physical activity messages targeting key community sites are recommended. Behavioural and social approaches are effective, introducing social support for physical activity within communities and worksites, and school-based strategies that encompass physical education, classroom activities, after-school sports, and active transport. Recommended environmental and policy approaches include creation and improvement of access to places for physical activity with informational outreach activities, community-scale and street-scale urban design and land use, active transport policy and practices, and community-wide policies and planning. Thus, many approaches lead to acceptable increases in physical activity among people of various ages, and from different social groups, countries, and communities.

The implications of megatrends in information and communication technology and transportation for changes in global physical activity.

Physical inactivity accounts for more than 3 million deaths per year, most from non-communicable diseases in low-income and middle-income countries. We used reviews of physical activity interventions and a simulation model to examine how megatrends in information and communication technology and transportation directly and indirectly affect levels of physical activity across countries of low, middle, and high income. The model suggested that the direct and potentiating eff ects of information and communication technology, especially mobile phones, are nearly equal in magnitude to the mean eff ects of planned physical activity interventions. The greatest potential to increase population physical activity might thus be in creation of synergistic policies in sectors outside health including communication and transportation. However, there remains a glaring mismatch between where studies on physical activity interventions are undertaken and where the potential lies in low-income and middle-income countries for population-level effects that will truly affect global health.

Assessing cohesion and diversity in the collaboration network of the SALURBAL project.

The SALURBAL (Urban Health in Latin America) Project is an interdisciplinary multinational network aimed at generating and disseminating actionable evidence on the drivers of health in cities of Latin America. We conducted a temporal multilayer network analysis where we measured cohesion over time using network structural properties and assessed diversity within and between different project activities according to participant attributes. Between 2017 and 2020 the SALURBAL network comprised 395 participants across 26 countries, 23 disciplines, and 181 institutions. While the cohesion of the SALURBAL network fluctuated over time, overall, an increase was observed from the first to the last time point of our analysis (clustering coefficient increased [0.83-0.91] and shortest path decreased [1.70-1.68]). SALURBAL also exhibited balanced overall diversity within project activities (0.5-0.6) by designing activities for different purposes such as capacity building, team-building, research, and dissemination. The network's growth was facilitated by the creation of new diverse collaborations across a range of activities over time, while maintaining the diversity of existing collaborations (0.69-0.75 between activity diversity depending on the attribute). The SALURBAL experience can serve as an example for multinational research projects aiming to build cohesive networks while leveraging heterogeneity in countries, disciplines, career stage, and across sectors.

Exploring the mechanistic pathways of how social network influences social norms in adolescent smoking prevention interventions.

We know little about how smoking prevention interventions might leverage social network structures to enhance protective social norms. In this study we combined statistical and network science methods to explore how social networks influence social norms related to adolescent smoking in school-specific settings in Northern Ireland and Colombia. Pupils (12-15 years old) participated in two smoking prevention interventions in both countries (n = 1344). A Latent Transition Analysis identified three groups characterized by descriptive and injunctive norms towards smoking. We employed a Separable Temporal Random Graph Model to analyze homophily in social norms and conducted a descriptive analysis of the changes in the students' and their friends' social norms over time to account for social influence. The results showed that students were more likely to be friends with others who had social norms against smoking. However, students with social norms favorable towards smoking had more friends with similar views than the students with perceived norms against smoking, underlining the importance of network thresholds. Our results support the notation that the ASSIST intervention takes advantage of friendship networks to leverage greater change in the students' smoking social norms than the Dead Cool intervention, reiterating that social norms are subject to social influence.

A scaling investigation of urban form features in Latin America cities.

This paper examines scaling behaviors of urban landscape and street design metrics with respect to city population in Latin America. We used data from the SALURBAL project, which has compiled and harmonized data on health, social, and built environment for 371 Latin American cities above 100,000 inhabitants. These metrics included total urbanized area, effective mesh size, area in km2 and number of streets. We obtained scaling relations by regressing log(metric) on log (city population). The results show an overall sub-linear scaling behavior of most variables, indicating a relatively lower value of each variable in larger cities. We also explored the potential influence of colonization on the current built environment, by analyzing cities colonized by Portuguese (Brazilian cities) or Spaniards (Other cities in Latin America) separately. We found that the scaling behaviors are similar for both sets of cities.

Do health benefits outweigh the costs of mass recreational programs? An economic analysis of four Ciclovía programs.

One promising public health intervention for promoting physical activity is the Ciclovía program. The Ciclovía is a regular multisectorial community-based program in which streets are temporarily closed for motorized transport, allowing exclusive access to individuals for recreational activities and physical activity. The objective of this study was to conduct an analysis of the cost-benefit ratios of physical activity of the Ciclovía programs of Bogotá and Medellín in Colombia, Guadalajara in México, and San Francisco in the U.S.A. The data of the four programs were obtained from program directors and local surveys. The annual cost per capita of the programs was: U.S. $6.0 for Bogotá, U.S. $23.4 for Medellín, U.S. $6.5 for Guadalajara, and U.S. $70.5 for San Francisco. The cost-benefit ratio for health benefit from physical activity was 3.23-4.26 for Bogotá, 1.83 for Medellín, 1.02-1.23 for Guadalajara, and 2.32 for San Francisco. For the program of Bogotá, the cost-benefit ratio was more sensitive to the prevalence of physically active bicyclists; for Guadalajara, the cost-benefit ratio was more sensitive to user costs; and for the programs of Medellín and San Francisco, the cost-benefit ratios were more sensitive to operational costs. From a public health perspective for promoting physical activity, these Ciclovía programs are cost beneficial.

Social cohesion emerging from a community-based physical activity program: A temporal network analysis.

Community-based physical activity programs, such as the Recreovía, are effective in promoting healthy behaviors in Latin America. To understand Recreovías' challenges and scalability, we characterized its social network longitudinally while studying its participants' social cohesion and interactions. First, we constructed the Main network of the program's Facebook profile in 2013 to determine the main stakeholders and communities of participants. Second, we studied the Temporal network growth of the Facebook profiles of three Recreovía locations from 2008 to 2016. We implemented a Time Windows in Networks algorithm to determine observation periods and a scaling model of cities' growth to measure social cohesion over time. Our results show physical activity instructors as the main stakeholders (20.84% nodes of the network). As emerging cohesion, we found: (1) incremental growth of Facebook users (43-272 nodes), friendships (55-2565 edges), clustering coefficient (0.19-0.21), and density (0.04-0.07); (2) no preferential attachment behavior; and (3) a social cohesion super-linear growth with 1.73 new friendships per joined user. Our results underscore the physical activity instructors' influence and the emergent cohesion in innovation periods as a co-benefit of the program. This analysis associates the social and healthy behavior dimensions of a program occurring in natural environments under a systemic approach.

Using cause-effect graphs to elicit expert knowledge for cross-impact balance analysis.

Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis leverages expert knowledge pertaining to the nature and strength of relationships between components of a system to identify the most plausible future 'scenarios' of the system. These scenarios, also referred to as 'storylines', provide qualitative insights into how the state of one factor can either promote or restrict the future state of one or multiple other factors in the system. This paper presents a novel, visually oriented questionnaire developed to elicit expert knowledge about the relationships between key factors in a system, for the purpose of CIB analysis. The questionnaire requires experts to make selections from a series of standardized cause-effect graphical profiles that depict a range of linear and non-linear relationships between factor pairs. The questionnaire and the process of translating the graphical selections into data that can be used for CIB analysis is described using an applied example which focuses on urban health in Latin American cities.