The value of implementing a nursing and midwifery clinical accreditation programme at two NHS trusts.

Unit/ward accreditation programmes have been widely implemented by nursing and midwifery teams across healthcare providers in the UK over the recent years and have many associated benefits. These include promoting quality improvement on a wider scale across the organisation, strengthening oversight and accountability of quality and safety from ward to board and vice versa, promoting shared learning, and providing opportunities for sharing and celebrating excellence. The Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust and Walsall Healthcare NHS Trust have recognised the value of this approach, launching a clinical accreditation programme in April 2023. This initially focused on nursing and midwifery, with plans to widen the approach to other disciplines and specialist teams. Up to the time of writing, 56 visits had been undertaken with 30 clinical areas accredited. The remaining visited areas are awaiting their accreditation outcome. The approach has positively contributed to improvements in patient outcomes, such as more patient observations being completed on time, a reduction in patient falls and improvements in pressure ulcers. Colleagues participating in the programme and frontline staff working in the clinical areas assessed have reported how positive the approach has been, providing opportunities for shared learning and celebrating excellence.

Comparing Sexual Network Mean Active Degree Measurement Metrics Among Men Who Have Sex With Men.

BACKGROUND: Mean active degree is an important proxy measure of cross-sectional network connectivity commonly used in HIV/sexually transmitted infection epidemiology research. No current studies have compared measurement methods of mean degree using a cross-sectional study design for men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States. We compared mean degree estimates based on reported ongoing main and casual sexual partnerships (current method) against dates of first and last sex (retrospective method). METHODS: We used data from ARTnet, a cross-sectional survey of MSM in the United States (2017-2019). ARTnet collected data on the number and types of sexual partners in the past year, limited to the 5 most recent partners (data truncation). We quantified partnerships for months 0 to 12 before the survey date (retrospective method) and compared that with ongoing partnerships on the day of survey (current method). We used linear regression to understand the impact of truncated partnership data on mean degree estimation. RESULTS: The retrospective method yielded similar degree estimates to the current for months proximate to the day of survey. The retrospective method mean degree systematically decreased as the month increased from 0 to 12 months before survey date. This was driven by data truncation: among participants with >5 partners in the past year compared with those with ≤5, the average change in main partnership degree between 12 and 0 months before survey date was -0.05 (95% confidence interval, -0.08 to -0.03) after adjusting for race/ethnicity, age, and education. The adjusted average change in casual partnership degree was -0.40 (95% confidence interval, -0.45 to -0.35). CONCLUSIONS: The retrospective method underestimates mean degree for MSM in surveys with truncated partnership data, especially for casual partnerships. The current method is less prone to bias from partner truncation when the target population has high rate of partners per year.

Impact of Survey Design on Estimation of Exponential-Family Random Graph Models from Egocentrically-Sampled Data.

Egocentric sampling of networks selects a subset of nodes ("egos") and collects information from them on themselves and their immediate network neighbours ("alters"), leaving the rest of the nodes in the network unobserved. This design is popular because it is relatively inexpensive to implement and can be integrated into standard sample surveys. Recent methodological developments now make it possible to statistically analyse this type of network data with Exponential-family Random Graph Models (ERGMs). This provides a framework for principled statistical inference, and the fitted models can in turn be used to simulate complete networks of arbitrary size that are consistent with the observed sample data, allowing one to infer the distribution of whole-network properties generated by the observed egocentric network statistics. In this paper, we discuss how design choices for egocentric network studies impact statistical estimation and inference for ERGMs. The design choices include both measurement strategies (for ego and alter attributes, and for ego-alter and alter-alter ties) and sampling strategies (for egos and alters). We discuss the importance of harmonising measurement specifications across egos and alters, and conduct simulation studies to demonstrate the impact of sampling design on statistical inference, specifically stratified sampling and degree censoring.

HIV and Sexually Transmitted Infection Epidemic Potential of Networks of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Two Cities.

BACKGROUND: The speed with which a pathogen circulates in a sexual network is a function of network connectivity. Cross-sectional connectivity is a function of network features like momentary degree and assortative mixing. Temporal connectivity is driven by partner acquisition rates. The forward-reachable path (FRP) has been proposed as a summary measure of these two aspects of transmission potential. We use empirical data from San Francisco and Atlanta to estimate the generative parameters of the FRP and compare results to the HIV/sexually transmitted infection epidemics in each city. METHODS: We used temporal exponential random graph models to estimate the generative parameters for each city's dynamic sexual network from survey data. We then simulated stochastic dynamic networks from the fitted models and calculated the FRP for each realization, overall, and stratified by partnership type and demographics. RESULTS: The overall mean and median paths were higher in San Francisco than in Atlanta. The overall paths for each city were greater than the sum of the paths in each individual partnership network. In the casual partnership network, the mean path was highest in the youngest age group and lowest in the oldest age group, despite the fact that the youngest group had the lowest mean momentary degree and past-year partner counts. CONCLUSIONS: The FRP by age group revealed the additional utility of the measure beyond the temporal and cross-sectional network connectivity measures. Other nonnetwork factors are still necessary to infer total epidemic potential for any specific pathogen.

A Behavioral Cascade of HIV Seroadaptation Among US Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Era of PrEP and U = U.

Seroadaptive behaviors help reduce HIV risk for some men who have sex with men (MSM), and have been well documented across MSM populations. Advancements in biomedical prevention have changed the contexts in which seroadaptive behaviors occur. We thus sought to estimate and compare the prevalence of four stages of the "seroadaptive cascade" by PrEP use in the recent era: knowledge of own serostatus, knowledge of partner serostatus; serosorting (matching by status), and condomless anal intercourse. Serosorting overall appeared to remain common, especially with casual and one-time partners. Although PrEP use did not impact status discussion, it did impact serosorting and the likelihood of having condomless anal intercourse. For respondents not diagnosed with HIV and not on PrEP, condomless anal intercourse occurred in just over half of relationships with HIV-positive partners who were not on treatment. Biomedical prevention has intertwined with rather than supplanted seroadaptive behaviors, while contexts involving neither persist.

RESUMEN: Los comportamientos seroadaptivos ayudan a reducir el riesgo de VIH en algunos hombres que tienen sexo con otros hombres (HSH) y han sido bien documentados en varias comunidades de HSH. Los avances en prevención biomédica han cambiado los contextos de los comportamientos seroadaptivos. Por ello buscamos estimar y comparar la prevalencia de cuatro fases de la 'cascada seroadaptiva' mediante el uso de PrEP en la era reciente: conocimiento del seroestatus personal, conocimiento del seroestatus del compañero, serosorting (emparejamiento por estatus) y coito anal sin condón. En general, el serosorting parece seguir siendo común especialmente con parejas casuales o de una noche. A pesar de que el uso de PrEP no impactó la discusión sobre el estatus, sí impactó el serosorting y la probabilidad de coito anal sin condón. Los encuestados no diagnosticados con VIH y sin PrEP tuvieron coito anal sin condón en la mitad de las relaciones con parejas VIH-positivo que no estaban bajo tratamiento. La prevención biomédica se ha entremezclado en lugar de suplantar los comportamientos seropositivos, mientras persisten los contextos en los que no aparece ninguno.

Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies.

Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.

Monitoring HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis Use Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Washington State: Findings From an Internet-Based Survey.

BACKGROUND: Many state and local health departments now promote and support the use of HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), yet monitoring use of the intervention at the population level remains challenging. METHODS: We report the results of an online survey designed to measure PrEP use among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Washington State. Data on the proportion of men with indications for PrEP based on state guidelines and levels of awareness, interest, and use of PrEP are presented for 1080 cisgender male respondents who completed the survey between January 1 and February 28, 2017. We conducted bivariate and multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with current PrEP use. To examine patterns of discontinuation, we conducted Cox proportional hazards regression and fit a Kaplan-Meier curve to reported data on time on PrEP. RESULTS: Eighty percent of respondents had heard of PrEP, 19% reported current use, and 36% of men who had never used PrEP wanted to start taking it. Among MSM for whom state guidelines recommend PrEP, 31% were taking it. In multivariable analysis, current PrEP use was associated with older age, higher education, and meeting indications for PrEP use. Our data suggest that 20% of PrEP users discontinue within 12 months, and men with lower educational attainment were more likely to discontinue. CONCLUSIONS: Despite high levels of use, there is significant unmet need for PrEP in Washington. Our experience indicates that Internet surveys are feasible and informative for monitoring PrEP use in MSM.

EpiModel: An R Package for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease over Networks.

Package EpiModel provides tools for building, simulating, and analyzing mathematical models for the population dynamics of infectious disease transmission in R. Several classes of models are included, but the unique contribution of this software package is a general stochastic framework for modeling the spread of epidemics on networks. EpiModel integrates recent advances in statistical methods for network analysis (temporal exponential random graph models) that allow the epidemic modeling to be grounded in empirical data on contacts that can spread infection. This article provides an overview of both the modeling tools built into EpiModel, designed to facilitate learning for students new to modeling, and the application programming interface for extending package EpiModel, designed to facilitate the exploration of novel research questions for advanced modelers.

Effectiveness of combination packages for HIV-1 prevention in sub-Saharan Africa depends on partnership network structure: a mathematical modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: Combination packages for HIV prevention can leverage the effectiveness of biomedical and behavioural elements to lower disease incidence with realistic targets for individual and population risk reduction. We investigated how sexual network structures can maximise the effectiveness of a package targeting sexually active adults in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with intervention components for medical male circumcision (MMC) and sexual partnership concurrency (having >1 ongoing partner). METHODS: Network-based mathematical models of HIV type 1 (HIV-1) transmission dynamics among heterosexual couples were used to explore how changes to MMC alone and in combination with changes to concurrency impacted endemic HIV-1 prevalence and incidence. Starting from a base model parameterised from empirical data from West Africa, we simulated the prevalence of circumcision from 10% to 90% and concurrency was modelled at four discrete levels corresponding to values observed across SSA. RESULTS: MMC and concurrency could contribute to the empirical variation in HIV-1 disease prevalence across SSA. Small reductions in concurrency resulted in large declines in HIV-1 prevalence. Scaling up circumcision in low-concurrency settings yields a greater relative benefit, but the absolute number of infections averted depends on both the circumcision coverage and baseline incidence. Epidemic extinction with this package will require substantial scale-up of MMC in low-concurrency settings. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic sexual network structure should be considered in the design and targeting of MMC within combination HIV-1 prevention packages. Realistic levels of coverage for these packages within southern Africa could lead to a reduction of incidence to the low levels observed in western Africa, and possibly, epidemic extinction.

A preliminary evaluation of a community-based campaign to increase awareness of concurrency and HIV transmission in African American and African-Born communities.

We evaluate an innovative grassroots community-based campaign in Seattle, WA focused on educating African American and African-born communities about concurrent partnerships and HIV transmission. Respondents completed a short self-administered questionnaire on a handheld personal digital assistant to evaluate the reach, acceptability and preliminary efficacy of the campaign. Of those who remembered seeing the campaign materials (82 %), social networks were the most common source of exposure (80 %). Respondents rated campaign materials very visually attractive (86 %), very interesting (91 %), and very important for themselves (90 %) and their community (93 %). Respondents reported that the campaign increased their knowledge about concurrency (84 %), changed their attitudes about it (77 %), and 65 % said it was likely or very likely that they would change their behavior as a result. This inexpensive grassroots campaign demonstrated extensive reach in the local black community and was able to move beyond individual exposure and into social networks.

Comparing Estimates of Multiple and Concurrent Partnerships Across Population Based Surveys: Implications for Combination HIV Prevention.

We compare estimates of multiple and concurrent sexual partnerships from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) with comparable Population Services International (PSI) surveys in four African countries (Kenya, Lesotho, Uganda, Zambia). DHS data produce significantly lower estimates of all indicators for both sexes in all countries. PSI estimates of multiple partnerships are 1.7 times higher [1.4 for men (M), 3.0 for women (W)], cumulative prevalence of concurrency is 2.4 times higher (2.2 M, 2.7 W), the point prevalence of concurrency is 3.5 times higher (3.5 M, 3.3 W), and the fraction of multi-partnered persons who report concurrency last year is 1.4 times higher (1.6 M, 0.9 W). These findings provide strong empirical evidence that DHS surveys systematically underestimate levels of multiple and concurrent partnerships. The underestimates will contaminate both empirical analyses of the link between sexual behavior and HIV infection, and theoretical models for combination prevention that use these data for inputs.

Improving and Extending STERGM Approximations Based on Cross-Sectional Data and Tie Durations.

Temporal exponential-family random graph models (TERGMs) are a flexible class of models for network ties that change over time. Separable TERGMs (STERGMs) are a subclass of TERGMs in which the dynamics of tie formation and dissolution can be separated within each discrete time step and may depend on different factors. The Carnegie et al. (2015) approximation improves estimation efficiency for a subclass of STERGMs, allowing them to be reliably estimated from inexpensive cross-sectional study designs. This approximation adapts to cross-sectional data by attempting to construct a STERGM with two specific properties: a cross-sectional equilibrium distribution defined by an exponential-family random graph model (ERGM) for the network structure, and geometric tie duration distributions defined by constant hazards for tie dissolution. In this paper we focus on approaches for improving the behavior of the Carnegie et al. approximation and increasing its scope of application. We begin with Carnegie et al.'s observation that the exact result is tractable when the ERGM is dyad-independent, and then show that taking the sparse limit of the exact result leads to a different approximation than the one they presented. We show that the new approximation outperforms theirs for sparse, dyad-independent models, and observe that the errors tend to increase with the strength of dependence for dyad-dependent models. We then develop theoretical results in the dyad-dependent case, showing that when the ERGM is allowed to have arbitrary dyad-dependent terms and some dyad-dependent constraints, both the old and new approximations are asymptotically exact as the size of the STERGM time step goes to zero. We note that the continuous-time limit of the discrete-time approximations has the desired cross-sectional equilibrium distribution and exponential tie duration distributions with the desired means. We show that our results extend to hypergraphs, and we propose an extension of the Carnegie et al. framework to dissolution hazards that depend on tie age.

Concurrent sexual partnerships among female sex workers and their non-commercial male partners in Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prevalence and correlates of concurrent (overlapping) sexual partnerships among female sex workers (FSWs) and their non-commercial male partners in two Mexico-US border cities. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of FSWs and their non-commercial male partners was conducted in Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez, Mexico (2010-2011). Eligible FSWs and verified non-commercial partners were aged ≥18 years; FSWs had ever used hard drugs (lifetime) and recently exchanged sex for money, drugs or other goods (past month). Participants underwent baseline questionnaires obtaining dates of sex and condom use with ≤5 other recurring partners, including FSWs' regular clients. These dates were compared with dates of sex with enrolled study partners to determine overlap (ie, 'recurring' concurrency). Bivariate probit regression identified recurring concurrency correlates. RESULTS: Among 428 individuals (214 couples), past-year recurring concurrency prevalence was 16% and was higher among women than their non-commercial male partners (26% vs 6%). In 10 couples (5%), both partners reported recurring concurrency. The majority of couples (64%) always had unprotected sex, and most of the individuals (70%) with recurring concurrency 'sometimes' or 'never' used condoms with their concurrent partners. Recurring concurrency was positively associated with FSWs' income, men's caballerismo (a form of traditional masculinity) and men's belief that their FSW partners had sexually transmitted infections (STIs). CONCLUSIONS: Recurring concurrency, representing sustained periods of overlapping partnerships in which unprotected sex was common, should be addressed by couple-based STI prevention interventions.

Sex, drugs, and race: how behaviors differentially contribute to the sexually transmitted infection risk network structure.

OBJECTIVES: We examined how risk behaviors differentially connect a population at high risk for sexually transmitted infections. METHODS: Starting from observed networks representing the full risk network and the risk network among respondents only, we constructed a series of edge-deleted counterfactual networks that selectively remove sex ties, drug ties, and ties involving both sex and drugs and a comparison random set. With these edge-deleted networks, we have demonstrated how each tie type differentially contributes to the connectivity of the observed networks on a series of standard network connectivity measures (component and bicomponent size, distance, and transitivity ratio) and the observed network racial segregation. RESULTS: Sex ties are unique from the other tie types in the network, providing wider reach in the network in relatively nonredundant ways. In this population, sex ties are more likely to bridge races than are other tie types. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions derived from only 1 mode of transmission at a time (e.g., condom promotion or needle exchange) would have different potential for curtailing sexually transmitted infection spread through the population than would attempts that simultaneously address all risk-relevant behaviors.

Partnership types and coital frequency as predictors of gonorrhea and chlamydia among young MSM and young transgender women.

BACKGROUND: Sexually transmitted infections pose a major public health challenge in the United States and this burden is especially acute in subpopulations like young men who have sex with men (YMSM) and young transgender women (YTW). Yet, the direct behavioral antecedents of these infections are not well understood making it difficult to identify the cause of recent increases in incidence. This study examines how variations in partnership rates and the number of condomless sex acts are associated with STI infections among YMSM-YTW. METHOD: This study leveraged 3 years of data from a large longitudinal cohort of YMSM-YTW. A series of generalized linear mixed models examined the association between the number of condomless anal sex acts, number of one-time partners, number of casual partners, and number of main partners and chlamydia, gonorrhea, or any STI. RESULTS: Results indicated the number of casual partners was associated with gonorrhea [aOR = 1.17 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.26)], chlamydia [aOR = 1.12 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.20)], and any STI [aOR = 1.14 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.21)] while the number of one-time partners was only associated with gonorrhea [aOR = 1.13 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.26)]. The number of condomless anal sex acts was not associated with any outcome. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest the number of casual partners is a consistent predictor of STI infection among YMSM-YTW. This may reflect the quick saturation of risk within partnerships making the number of partners, rather than the number of acts, the more relevant factor for STI risk.

Concurrent partnerships, acute infection and HIV epidemic dynamics among young adults in Zimbabwe.

This paper explores the roles of acute infection and concurrent partnerships in HIV transmission dynamics among young adults in Zimbabwe using realistic representations of the partnership network and all published estimates of stage-specific infectivity. We use dynamic exponential random graph models to estimate partnership network parameters from an empirical study of sexual behavior and drive a stochastic simulation of HIV transmission through this dynamic network. Our simulated networks match observed frequencies and durations of short- and long-term partnerships, with concurrency patterns specific to gender and partnership type. Our findings suggest that, at current behavior levels, the epidemic cannot be sustained in this population without both concurrency and acute infection; removing either brings transmission below the threshold for persistence. With both present, we estimate 20-25% of transmissions stem from acute-stage infections, 30-50% from chronic-stage, and 30-45% from AIDS-stage. The impact of acute infection is strongly moderated by concurrency. Reducing this impact by reducing concurrency could potentially end the current HIV epidemic in Zimbabwe.

A qualitative study of barriers to consistent condom use among HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Kenya.

This study explored barriers to consistent condom use among heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples who were aware of the HIV-1 serodiscordant status and had been informed about condom use as a risk reduction strategy. We conducted 28 in-depth interviews and 9 focus group discussions among purposively selected heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples from Thika and Nairobi districts in Kenya. We analyzed the transcribed data with a grounded theory approach. The most common barriers to consistent condom use included male partners' reluctance to use condoms regardless of HIV-1 status coupled with female partners' inability to negotiate condom use, misconceptions about HIV-1 serodiscordance, and desire for children. Specific areas of focus should include development of skills for women to effectively negotiate condom use, ongoing information on HIV-1 serodiscordance and education on safer conception practices that minimize risk of HIV-1 transmission.

Adjusting for Network Size and Composition Effects in Exponential-Family Random Graph Models.

Exponential-family random graph models (ERGMs) provide a principled way to model and simulate features common in human social networks, such as propensities for homophily and friend-of-a-friend triad closure. We show that, without adjustment, ERGMs preserve density as network size increases. Density invariance is often not appropriate for social networks. We suggest a simple modification based on an offset which instead preserves the mean degree and accommodates changes in network composition asymptotically. We demonstrate that this approach allows ERGMs to be applied to the important situation of egocentrically sampled data. We analyze data from the National Health and Social Life Survey (NHSLS).

Temporal Variation in One-Time Partnership Rates Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men and Transgender Women.

BACKGROUND: Volatility in sexual contact rates has been recognized as an important factor influencing HIV transmission dynamics. One-time partnerships may be particularly important given the potential to quickly accumulate large number of contacts. Yet, empirical data documenting individual variation in contact rates remain rare. This study provides much needed data on temporal variation in one-time partners to better understand behavioral dynamics and improve the accuracy of transmission models. METHODS: Data for this study were obtained from a longitudinal cohort study of young men who have sex with men and transgender women in Chicago. Participants provided sexual network data every 6 months for 2 years. A series of random effects models examined variation in one-time partnership rates and disaggregated within and between associations of exposure variables. Exposure variables included prior number of one-time partners, number of casual partners, and having a main partner. RESULTS: Results indicated substantial between-person and within-person variation in one-time partners. Casual partnerships were positively associated and main partnerships negatively associated with one-time partnership rates. There remained a small positive association between prior one-time partnerships and the current number of one-time partnerships. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the preponderance of a low number of one-time partners, substantial variation in one-time partnership rates exists among young men who have sex with men and transgender women. Accordingly, focusing on high contact rate individuals alone may be insufficient to identify periods of highest risk. Future studies should use these estimates to more accurately model how volatility impacts HIV transmission and better understand how this variation influences intervention effectiveness.