Acceptability of data linkage to identify women at risk of postnatal complication for the development of digital risk prediction tools and interventions to better optimise postnatal care, a qualitative descriptive study design.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy acts as a cardiovascular stress test. Although many complications resolve following birth, women with hypertensive disorder of pregnancy have an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) long-term. Monitoring postnatal health can reduce this risk but requires better methods to identity high-risk women for timely interventions. METHODS: Employing a qualitative descriptive study design, focus groups and/or interviews were conducted, separately engaging public contributors and clinical professionals. Diverse participants were recruited through social media convenience sampling. Semi-structured, facilitator-led discussions explored perspectives of current postnatal assessment and attitudes towards linking patient electronic healthcare data to develop digital tools for identifying postpartum women at risk of CVD. Participant perspectives were gathered using post-it notes or a facilitator scribe and analysed thematically. RESULTS: From 27 public and seven clinical contributors, five themes regarding postnatal check expectations versus reality were developed, including 'limited resources', 'low maternal health priority', 'lack of knowledge', 'ineffective systems' and 'new mum syndrome'. Despite some concerns, all supported data linkage to identify women postnatally, targeting intervention to those at greater risk of CVD. Participants outlined potential benefits of digitalisation and risk prediction, highlighting design and communication needs for diverse communities. CONCLUSIONS: Current health system constraints in England contribute to suboptimal postnatal care. Integrating data linkage and improving education on data and digital tools for maternal healthcare shows promise for enhanced monitoring and improved future health. Recognised for streamlining processes and risk prediction, digital tools may enable more person-centred care plans, addressing the gaps in current postnatal care practice.

Trends for opioid prescribing and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases between 2006 and 2021.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate opioid prescribing trends and assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on opioid prescribing in rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs). METHODS: Adult patients with RA, PsA, axial spondyloarthritis (AxSpA), SLE, OA and FM with opioid prescriptions between 1 January 2006 and 31 August 2021 without cancer in UK primary care were included. Age- and gender-standardized yearly rates of new and prevalent opioid users were calculated between 2006 and 2021. For prevalent users, monthly measures of mean morphine milligram equivalents (MME)/day were calculated between 2006 and 2021. To assess the impact of the pandemic, we fitted regression models to the monthly number of prevalent opioid users between January 2015 and August 2021. The time coefficient reflects the trend pre-pandemic and the interaction term coefficient represents the change in the trend during the pandemic. RESULTS: The study included 1 313 519 RMD patients. New opioid users for RA, PsA and FM increased from 2.6, 1.0 and 3.4/10 000 persons in 2006 to 4.5, 1.8 and 8.7, respectively, in 2018 or 2019. This was followed by a fall to 2.4, 1.2 and 5.9, respectively, in 2021. Prevalent opioid users for all RMDs increased from 2006 but plateaued or dropped beyond 2018, with a 4.5-fold increase in FM between 2006 and 2021. In this period, MME/day increased for all RMDs, with the highest for FM (≥35). During COVID-19 lockdowns, RA, PsA and FM showed significant changes in the trend of prevalent opioid users. The trend for FM increased pre-pandemic and started decreasing during the pandemic. CONCLUSION: The plateauing or decreasing trend of opioid users for RMDs after 2018 may reflect the efforts to tackle rising opioid prescribing in the UK. The pandemic led to fewer people on opioids for most RMDs, providing reassurance that there was no sudden increase in opioid prescribing during the pandemic.

Calibration plots for multistate risk predictions models.

INTRODUCTION: There is currently no guidance on how to assess the calibration of multistate models used for risk prediction. We introduce several techniques that can be used to produce calibration plots for the transition probabilities of a multistate model, before assessing their performance in the presence of random and independent censoring through a simulation. METHODS: We studied pseudo-values based on the Aalen-Johansen estimator, binary logistic regression with inverse probability of censoring weights (BLR-IPCW), and multinomial logistic regression with inverse probability of censoring weights (MLR-IPCW). The MLR-IPCW approach results in a calibration scatter plot, providing extra insight about the calibration. We simulated data with varying levels of censoring and evaluated the ability of each method to estimate the calibration curve for a set of predicted transition probabilities. We also developed evaluated the calibration of a model predicting the incidence of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease among a cohort of patients derived from linked primary and secondary healthcare records. RESULTS: The pseudo-value, BLR-IPCW, and MLR-IPCW approaches give unbiased estimates of the calibration curves under random censoring. These methods remained predominately unbiased in the presence of independent censoring, even if the censoring mechanism was strongly associated with the outcome, with bias concentrated in low-density regions of predicted transition probability. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend implementing either the pseudo-value or BLR-IPCW approaches to produce a calibration curve, combined with the MLR-IPCW approach to produce a calibration scatter plot. The methods have been incorporated into the "calibmsm" R package available on CRAN.

Disparities in COVID-19 infection, hospitalisation and death in people with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depressive disorder: a cohort study of the UK Biobank.

People with severe mental illness (SMI; including schizophrenia/psychosis, bipolar disorder (BD), major depressive disorder (MDD)) experience large disparities in physical health. Emerging evidence suggests this group experiences higher risks of infection and death from COVID-19, although the full extent of these disparities are not yet established. We investigated COVID-19 related infection, hospitalisation and mortality among people with SMI in the UK Biobank (UKB) cohort study. Overall, 447,296 participants from UKB (schizophrenia/psychosis = 1925, BD = 1483 and MDD = 41,448, non-SMI = 402,440) were linked with healthcare and death records. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to examine differences in COVID-19 outcomes by diagnosis, controlling for sociodemographic factors and comorbidities. In unadjusted analyses, higher odds of COVID-19 mortality were seen among people with schizophrenia/psychosis (odds ratio [OR] 4.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.00-7.34), BD (OR 3.76, 95% CI 2.00-6.35), and MDD (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.69-2.33) compared to people with no SMI. Higher odds of infection and hospitalisation were also seen across all SMI groups, particularly among people with schizophrenia/psychosis (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.32-1.96; OR 3.47, 95% CI 2.47-4.72) and BD (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.16-1.85; OR 3.31, 95% CI 2.22-4.73). In fully adjusted models, mortality and hospitalisation odds remained significantly higher among all SMI groups, though infection odds remained significantly higher only for MDD. People with schizophrenia/psychosis, BD and MDD have higher risks of COVID-19 infection, hospitalisation and mortality. Only a proportion of these disparities were accounted for by pre-existing demographic characteristics or comorbidities. Vaccination and preventive measures should be prioritised in these particularly vulnerable groups.

Developing prediction models to estimate the risk of two survival outcomes both occurring: A comparison of techniques.

INTRODUCTION: This study considers the prediction of the time until two survival outcomes have both occurred. We compared a variety of analytical methods motivated by a typical clinical problem of multimorbidity prognosis. METHODS: We considered five methods: product (multiply marginal risks), dual-outcome (directly model the time until both events occur), multistate models (msm), and a range of copula and frailty models. We assessed calibration and discrimination under a variety of simulated data scenarios, varying outcome prevalence, and the amount of residual correlation. The simulation focused on model misspecification and statistical power. Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we compared model performance when predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes both occurring. RESULTS: Discrimination was similar for all methods. The product method was poorly calibrated in the presence of residual correlation. The msm and dual-outcome models were the most robust to model misspecification but suffered a drop in performance at small sample sizes due to overfitting, which the copula and frailty model were less susceptible to. The copula and frailty model's performance were highly dependent on the underlying data structure. In the clinical example, the product method was poorly calibrated when adjusting for 8 major cardiovascular risk factors. DISCUSSION: We recommend the dual-outcome method for predicting the risk of two survival outcomes both occurring. It was the most robust to model misspecification, although was also the most prone to overfitting. The clinical example motivates the use of the methods considered in this study.

The Complexity of Transferring Remote Monitoring and Virtual Care Technology Between Countries: Lessons From an International Workshop.

International deployment of remote monitoring and virtual care (RMVC) technologies would efficiently harness their positive impact on outcomes. Since Canada and the United Kingdom have similar populations, health care systems, and digital health landscapes, transferring digital health innovations between them should be relatively straightforward. Yet examples of successful attempts are scarce. In a workshop, we identified 6 differences that may complicate RMVC transfer between Canada and the United Kingdom and provided recommendations for addressing them. These key differences include (1) minority groups, (2) physical geography, (3) clinical pathways, (4) value propositions, (5) governmental priorities and support for digital innovation, and (6) regulatory pathways. We detail 4 broad recommendations to plan for sustainability, including the need to formally consider how highlighted country-specific recommendations may impact RMVC and contingency planning to overcome challenges; the need to map which pathways are available as an innovator to support cross-country transfer; the need to report on and apply learnings from regulatory barriers and facilitators so that everyone may benefit; and the need to explore existing guidance to successfully transfer digital health solutions while developing further guidance (eg, extending the nonadoption, abandonment, scale-up, spread, sustainability framework for cross-country transfer). Finally, we present an ecosystem readiness checklist. Considering these recommendations will contribute to successful international deployment and an increased positive impact of RMVC technologies. Future directions should consider characterizing additional complexities associated with global transfer.

Does coprescribing nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and oral anticoagulants increase the risk of major bleeding, stroke and systemic embolism?

AIMS: To examine the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, major bleeding, stroke and systemic embolism associated with prescribing nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) to adults receiving oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study in adults receiving OAC therapy using linked primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD) and hospital (Hospital Episodes Statistics) electronic health records. We used cause-specific Cox regression models with time-dependent NSAID treatment in a propensity score matched population to estimate the increased risk of GI bleeding, stroke, major bleeding and systemic embolism associated with NSAID use. RESULTS: The matched cohort contained 3177 patients with OAC therapy alone and 3177 with at least 1 concomitant NSAID prescription. Compared with OAC therapy alone, concomitant prescription of NSAIDs with OACs was associated with increased risk of GI bleeding (hazard ratio [HR] 3.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.63 to 5.55), stroke (HR 2.71, 95% CI 1.48 to 4.96) and major bleeding (HR 2.77, 95% CI 1.84 to 4.19). The association with systemic embolism did not reach statistical significance (HR 3.02, 95% CI 0.82 to 11.07). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the results were robust to changes in exclusion criteria and the choice of potential confounding variables. CONCLUSION: When OACs are coprescribed with NSAIDs, the risk of adverse bleeding events increases and, simultaneously, the protective effect of OACs to prevent strokes reduces. There is a need for interventions that reduce hazardous prescribing of NSAIDs in people receiving OAC therapy.

Risk prediction of 30-day mortality after stroke using machine learning: a nationwide registry-based cohort study.

BACKGROUNDS: We aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models for 30-day stroke mortality for mortality risk stratification and as benchmarking models for quality improvement in stroke care. METHODS: Data from the UK Sentinel Stroke National Audit Program between 2013 to 2019 were used. Models were developed using XGBoost, Logistic Regression (LR), LR with elastic net with/without interaction terms using 80% randomly selected admissions from 2013 to 2018, validated on the 20% remaining admissions, and temporally validated on 2019 admissions. The models were developed with 30 variables. A reference model was developed using LR and 4 variables. Performances of all models was evaluated in terms of discrimination, calibration, reclassification, Brier scores and Decision-curves. RESULTS: In total, 488,497 stroke patients with a 12.3% 30-day mortality rate were included in the analysis. In 2019 temporal validation set, XGBoost model obtained the lowest Brier score (0.069 (95% CI: 0.068-0.071)) and the highest area under the ROC curve (AUC) (0.895 (95% CI: 0.891-0.900)) which outperformed LR reference model by 0.04 AUC (p < 0.001) and LR with elastic net and interaction term model by 0.003 AUC (p < 0.001). All models were perfectly calibrated for low (< 5%) and moderate risk groups (5-15%) and ≈1% underestimation for high-risk groups (> 15%). The XGBoost model reclassified 1648 (8.1%) low-risk cases by the LR reference model as being moderate or high-risk and gained the most net benefit in decision curve analysis. CONCLUSIONS: All models with 30 variables are potentially useful as benchmarking models in stroke-care quality improvement with ML slightly outperforming others.

Using discrete-choice experiments to elicit preferences for digital wearable health technology for self-management of chronic kidney disease.

OBJECTIVES: Wearable digital health technologies (DHTs) have the potential to improve chronic kidney disease (CKD) management through patient engagement. This study aimed to investigate and elicit preferences of individuals with CKD toward wearable DHTs designed to support self-management of their condition. METHODS: Using the results of our review of the published literature and after conducting qualitative patient interviews, five-choice attributes were identified and included in a discrete-choice experiment. The design consisted of 10-choice tasks, each comprising two hypothetical technologies and one opt-out scenario. We collected data from 113 adult patients with CKD stages 3-5 not on dialysis and analyzed their responses via a latent class model to explore preference heterogeneity. RESULTS: Two patient segments were identified. In all preference segments, the most important attributes were the device appearance, format, and type of information provided. Patients within the largest preference class (70 percent) favored information provided in any format except the audio, while individuals in the other class preferred information in text format. In terms of the style of engagement with the device, both classes wanted a device that provides options rather than telling them what to do. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis indicates that user preferences differ between patient subgroups, supporting the case for offering a different design of the device for different patients' strata, thus moving away from a one-size-fits-all service provision. Furthermore, we showed how to leverage the information from user preferences early in the R&D process to inform and support the provision of nuanced person-centered wearable DHTs.

Understanding How the Design and Implementation of Online Consultations Affect Primary Care Quality: Systematic Review of Evidence With Recommendations for Designers, Providers, and Researchers.

BACKGROUND: Online consultations (OCs) allow patients to contact their care providers on the web. Worldwide, OCs have been rolled out in primary care rapidly owing to policy initiatives and COVID-19. There is a lack of evidence regarding how OC design and implementation influence care quality. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to synthesize research on the impacts of OCs on primary care quality, and how these are influenced by system design and implementation. METHODS: We searched databases from January 2010 to February 2022. We included quantitative and qualitative studies of real-world OC use in primary care. Quantitative data were transformed into qualitative themes. We used thematic synthesis informed by the Institute of Medicine domains of health care quality, and framework analysis informed by the nonadoption, abandonment, scale-up, spread, and sustainability framework. Strength of evidence was judged using the GRADE-CERQual approach. RESULTS: We synthesized 63 studies from 9 countries covering 31 OC systems, 14 (22%) of which used artificial intelligence; 41% (26/63) of studies were published from 2020 onward, and 17% (11/63) were published after the COVID-19 pandemic. There was no quantitative evidence for negative impacts of OCs on patient safety, and qualitative studies suggested varied perceptions of their safety. Some participants believed OCs improved safety, particularly when patients could describe their queries using free text. Staff workload decreased when sufficient resources were allocated to implement OCs and patients used them for simple problems or could describe their queries using free text. Staff workload increased when OCs were not integrated with other software or organizational workflows and patients used them for complex queries. OC systems that required patients to describe their queries using multiple-choice questionnaires increased workload for patients and staff. Health costs decreased when patients used OCs for simple queries and increased when patients used them for complex queries. Patients using OCs were more likely to be female, younger, and native speakers, with higher socioeconomic status. OCs increased primary care access for patients with mental health conditions, verbal communication difficulties, and barriers to attending in-person appointments. Access also increased by providing a timely response to patients' queries. Patient satisfaction increased when using OCs owing to better primary care access, although it decreased when using multiple-choice questionnaire formats. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first theoretically informed synthesis of research on OCs in primary care and includes studies conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. It contributes new knowledge that, in addition to having positive impacts on care quality such as increased access, OCs also have negative impacts such as increased workload. Negative impacts can be mitigated through appropriate OC system design (eg, free text format), incorporation of advanced technologies (eg, artificial intelligence), and integration into technical infrastructure (eg, software) and organizational workflows (eg, timely responses). TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020191802; https://tinyurl.com/2p84ezjy.

Attention-based bidirectional long short-term memory networks for extracting temporal relationships from clinical discharge summaries.

Temporal relation extraction between health-related events is a widely studied task in clinical Natural Language Processing (NLP). The current state-of-the-art methods mostly rely on engineered features (i.e., rule-based modelling) and sequence modelling, which often encodes a source sentence into a single fixed-length context. An obvious disadvantage of this fixed-length context design is its incapability to model longer sentences, as important temporal information in the clinical text may appear at different positions. To address this issue, we propose an Attention-based Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Att-BiLSTM) model to enable learning the important semantic information in long source text segments and to better determine which parts of the text are most important. We experimented with two embeddings and compared the performances to traditional state-of-the-art methods that require elaborate linguistic pre-processing and hand-engineered features. The experimental results on the i2b2 2012 temporal relation test corpus show that the proposed method achieves a significant improvement with an F-score of 0.811, which is at least 10% better than state-of-the-art in the field. We show that the model can be remarkably effective at classifying temporal relations when provided with word embeddings trained on corpora in a general domain. Finally, we perform an error analysis to gain insight into the common errors made by the model.

Ranking sets of morbidities using hypergraph centrality.

Multi-morbidity, the health state of having two or more concurrent chronic conditions, is becoming more common as populations age, but is poorly understood. Identifying and understanding commonly occurring sets of diseases is important to inform clinical decisions to improve patient services and outcomes. Network analysis has been previously used to investigate multi-morbidity, but a classic application only allows for information on binary sets of diseases to contribute to the graph. We propose the use of hypergraphs, which allows for the incorporation of data on people with any number of conditions, and also allows us to obtain a quantitative understanding of the centrality, a measure of how well connected items in the network are to each other, of both single diseases and sets of conditions. Using this framework we illustrate its application with the set of conditions described in the Charlson morbidity index using data extracted from routinely collected population-scale, patient level electronic health records (EHR) for a cohort of adults in Wales, UK. Stroke and diabetes were found to be the most central single conditions. Sets of diseases featuring diabetes; diabetes with Chronic Pulmonary Disease, Renal Disease, Congestive Heart Failure and Cancer were the most central pairs of diseases. We investigated the differences between results obtained from the hypergraph and a classic binary graph and found that the centrality of diseases such as paraplegia, which are connected strongly to a single other disease is exaggerated in binary graphs compared to hypergraphs. The measure of centrality is derived from the weighting metrics calculated for disease sets and further investigation is needed to better understand the effect of the metric used in identifying the clinical significance and ranked centrality of grouped diseases. These initial results indicate that hypergraphs can be used as a valuable tool for analysing previously poorly understood relationships and information available in EHR data.

Evaluation of a pharmacist-led actionable audit and feedback intervention for improving medication safety in UK primary care: An interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the impact of the pharmacist-led Safety Medication dASHboard (SMASH) intervention on medication safety in primary care. METHODS AND FINDINGS: SMASH comprised (1) training of clinical pharmacists to deliver the intervention; (2) a web-based dashboard providing actionable, patient-level feedback; and (3) pharmacists reviewing individual at-risk patients, and initiating remedial actions or advising general practitioners on doing so. It was implemented in 43 general practices covering a population of 235,595 people in Salford (Greater Manchester), UK. All practices started receiving the intervention between 18 April 2016 and 26 September 2017. We used an interrupted time series analysis of rates (prevalence) of potentially hazardous prescribing and inadequate blood-test monitoring, comparing observed rates post-intervention to extrapolations from a 24-month pre-intervention trend. The number of people registered to participating practices and having 1 or more risk factors for being exposed to hazardous prescribing or inadequate blood-test monitoring at the start of the intervention was 47,413 (males: 23,073 [48.7%]; mean age: 60 years [standard deviation: 21]). At baseline, 95% of practices had rates of potentially hazardous prescribing (composite of 10 indicators) between 0.88% and 6.19%. The prevalence of potentially hazardous prescribing reduced by 27.9% (95% CI 20.3% to 36.8%, p < 0.001) at 24 weeks and by 40.7% (95% CI 29.1% to 54.2%, p < 0.001) at 12 months after introduction of SMASH. The rate of inadequate blood-test monitoring (composite of 2 indicators) reduced by 22.0% (95% CI 0.2% to 50.7%, p = 0.046) at 24 weeks; the change at 12 months (23.5%) was no longer significant (95% CI -4.5% to 61.6%, p = 0.127). After 12 months, 95% of practices had rates of potentially hazardous prescribing between 0.74% and 3.02%. Study limitations include the fact that practices were not randomised, and therefore unmeasured confounding may have influenced our findings. CONCLUSIONS: The SMASH intervention was associated with reduced rates of potentially hazardous prescribing and inadequate blood-test monitoring in general practices. This reduction was sustained over 12 months after the start of the intervention for prescribing but not for monitoring of medication. There was a marked reduction in the variation in rates of hazardous prescribing between practices.

Correction to: The comorbidity burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus: patterns, clusters and predictions from a large English primary care cohort.

The original article [1] contains an omitted grant acknowledgement and affiliation as relates to the contribution of co-author, Rafael Perera-Salazar. As such, the following two amendments should apply to the original article.

Extraction of temporal relations from clinical free text: A systematic review of current approaches.

BACKGROUND: Temporal relations between clinical events play an important role in clinical assessment and decision making. Extracting such relations from free text data is a challenging task because it lies on between medical natural language processing, temporal representation and temporal reasoning. OBJECTIVES: To survey existing methods for extracting temporal relations (TLINKs) between events from clinical free text in English; to establish the state-of-the-art in this field; and to identify outstanding methodological challenges. METHODS: A systematic search in PubMed and the DBLP computer science bibliography was conducted for studies published between January 2006 and December 2018. The relevant studies were identified by examining the titles and abstracts. Then, the full text of selected studies was analyzed in depth and information were collected on TLINK tasks, TLINK types, data sources, features selection, methods used, and reported performance. RESULTS: A total of 2834 publications were identified for title and abstract screening. Of these publications, 51 studies were selected. Thirty-two studies used machine learning approaches, 15 studies used a hybrid approaches, and only four studies used a rule-based approach. The majority of studies use publicly available corpora: THYME (28 studies) and the i2b2 corpus (17 studies). CONCLUSION: The performance of TLINK extraction methods ranges widely depending on relation types and events (e.g. from 32% to 87% F-score for identifying relations between clinical events and document creation time). A small set of TLINKs (before, after, overlap and contains) has been widely studied with relatively good performance, whereas other types of TLINK (e.g., started by, finished by, precedes) are rarely studied and remain challenging. Machine learning classifiers (such as Support Vector Machine and Conditional Random Fields) and Deep Neural Networks were among the best performing methods for extracting TLINKs, but nearly all the work has been carried out and tested on two publicly available corpora only. The field would benefit from the availability of more publicly available, high-quality, annotated clinical text corpora.

Understanding the utilisation of a novel interactive electronic medication safety dashboard in general practice: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: Improving medication safety is a major concern in primary care settings worldwide. The Salford Medication safety dASHboard (SMASH) intervention provided general practices in Salford (Greater Manchester, UK) with feedback on their safe prescribing and monitoring of medications through an online dashboard, and input from practice-based trained clinical pharmacists. In this study we explored how staff working in general practices used the SMASH dashboard to improve medication safety, through interactions with the dashboard to identify potential medication safety hazards and their workflow to resolve identified hazards. METHODS: We used a mixed-methods study design involving quantitative data from dashboard user interaction logs from 43 general practices during the first year of receiving the SMASH intervention, and qualitative data from semi-structured interviews with 22 pharmacists and physicians from 18 practices in Salford. RESULTS: Practices interacted with the dashboard a median of 12.0 (interquartile range, 5.0-15.2) times per month during the first quarter of use to identify and resolve potential medication safety hazards, typically starting with the most prevalent hazards or those they perceived to be most serious. Having observed a potential hazard, pharmacists and practice staff worked together to resolve that in a sequence of steps (1) verifying the dashboard information, (2) reviewing the patient's clinical records, and (3) deciding potential changes to the patient's medicines. Over time, dashboard use transitioned towards regular but less frequent (median of 5.5 [3.5-7.9] times per month) checks to identify and resolve new cases. The frequency of dashboard use was higher in practices with a larger number of at-risk patients. In 24 (56%) practices only pharmacists used the dashboard; in 12 (28%) use by other practice staff increased as pharmacist use declined after the initial intervention period; and in 7 (16%) there was mixed use by both pharmacists and practice staff over time. CONCLUSIONS: An online medication safety dashboard enabled pharmacists to identify patients at risk of potentially hazardous prescribing. They subsequently worked with GPs to resolve risks on a case-by-case basis, but there were marked variations in processes between some practices. Workload diminished over time as it shifted towards resolving new cases of hazardous prescribing.

The comorbidity burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus: patterns, clusters and predictions from a large English primary care cohort.

BACKGROUND: The presence of additional chronic conditions has a significant impact on the treatment and management of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Little is known about the patterns of comorbidities in this population. The aims of this study are to quantify comorbidity patterns in people with T2DM, to estimate the prevalence of six chronic conditions in 2027 and to identify clusters of similar conditions. METHODS: We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked with the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) data to identify patients diagnosed with T2DM between 2007 and 2017. 102,394 people met the study inclusion criteria. We calculated the crude and age-standardised prevalence of 18 chronic conditions present at and after the T2DM diagnosis. We analysed longitudinally the 6 most common conditions and forecasted their prevalence in 2027 using linear regression. We used agglomerative hierarchical clustering to identify comorbidity clusters. These analyses were repeated on subgroups stratified by gender and deprivation. RESULTS: More people living in the most deprived areas had ≥ 1 comorbidities present at the time of diagnosis (72% of females; 64% of males) compared to the most affluent areas (67% of females; 59% of males). Depression prevalence increased in all strata and was more common in the most deprived areas. Depression was predicted to affect 33% of females and 15% of males diagnosed with T2DM in 2027. Moderate clustering tendencies were observed, with concordant conditions grouped together and some variations between groups of different demographics. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidities are common in this population, and high between-patient variability in comorbidity patterns emphasises the need for patient-centred healthcare. Mental health is a growing concern, and there is a need for interventions that target both physical and mental health in this population.

How unmeasured confounding in a competing risks setting can affect treatment effect estimates in observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Analysis of competing risks is commonly achieved through a cause specific or a subdistribution framework using Cox or Fine & Gray models, respectively. The estimation of treatment effects in observational data is prone to unmeasured confounding which causes bias. There has been limited research into such biases in a competing risks framework. METHODS: We designed simulations to examine bias in the estimated treatment effect under Cox and Fine & Gray models with unmeasured confounding present. We varied the strength of the unmeasured confounding (i.e. the unmeasured variable's effect on the probability of treatment and both outcome events) in different scenarios. RESULTS: In both the Cox and Fine & Gray models, correlation between the unmeasured confounder and the probability of treatment created biases in the same direction (upward/downward) as the effect of the unmeasured confounder on the event-of-interest. The association between correlation and bias is reversed if the unmeasured confounder affects the competing event. These effects are reversed for the bias on the treatment effect of the competing event and are amplified when there are uneven treatment arms. CONCLUSION: The effect of unmeasured confounding on an event-of-interest or a competing event should not be overlooked in observational studies as strong correlations can lead to bias in treatment effect estimates and therefore cause inaccurate results to lead to false conclusions. This is true for cause specific perspective, but moreso for a subdistribution perspective. This can have ramifications if real-world treatment decisions rely on conclusions from these biased results. Graphical visualisation to aid in understanding the systems involved and potential confounders/events leading to sensitivity analyses that assumes unmeasured confounders exists should be performed to assess the robustness of results.

Potential prognostic factors for delayed healing of common, non-traumatic skin ulcers: A scoping review.

Healing of non-traumatic skin ulcers is often suboptimal. Prognostic tools that identify people at high risk of delayed healing within the context of routine ulcer assessments may improve this, but robust evidence on which factors to include is lacking. Therefore, we scoped the literature to identify which potentially prognostic factors may warrant future systematic reviews and meta-analyses. We conducted electronic searches in MEDLINE and Embase to identify studies in English published between 1997 and 2017 that tested the association between healing of the three most common non-traumatic skin ulcers encountered by health care professionals (venous leg, diabetic foot, and pressure ulcers) and patient characteristics, ulcer characteristics, and results from clinical investigations. We included 42 studies that investigated factors which may be associated with the healing of venous leg ulcers (n = 17), diabetic foot ulcers (n = 15), and pressure ulcers (n = 10). Across ulcer types, ulcer characteristics were most commonly reported as potential prognostic factors for healing (n = 37), including the size of the ulcer area (n = 29) and ulcer duration at first assessment (n = 16). A total of 35 studies investigated the prognostic value of patient characteristics (n = 35), including age (n = 31), gender (n = 30), diabetes (n = 22), smoking status (n = 15), and history of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) (n = 13). Of these studies, 23 reported results from clinical investigations as potential prognostic factors, with the majority regarding vessel quality. Age, gender, diabetes, smoking status, history of DVT, ulcer area, and ulcer duration at time of first assessment warrant a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify their prognostic value for delayed ulcer healing.