Incremental Sampling Methodology: Applications for Background Screening Assessments.

This article presents the findings from a numerical simulation study that was conducted to evaluate the performance of alternative statistical analysis methods for background screening assessments when data sets are generated with incremental sampling methods (ISMs). A wide range of background and site conditions are represented in order to test different ISM sampling designs. Both hypothesis tests and upper tolerance limit (UTL) screening methods were implemented following U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidance for specifying error rates. The simulations show that hypothesis testing using two-sample t-tests can meet standard performance criteria under a wide range of conditions, even with relatively small sample sizes. Key factors that affect the performance include unequal population variances and small absolute differences in population means. UTL methods are generally not recommended due to conceptual limitations in the technique when applied to ISM data sets from single decision units and due to insufficient power given standard statistical sample sizes from ISM.

Ammonium perchlorate effects on thyroid function and growth in bobwhite quail chicks.

Bobwhite quail chicks were used to investigate ammonium perchlorate (AP; NH4ClO4) effects on thyroid function and growth. Beginning at 3 to 4 d posthatch, we evaluated organismal thyroid status (circulating hormones), activation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis (thyroid wt) and thyroidal hormone content over a wide range of AP concentrations (50 microg/L - 4,000 mg/L) in drinking water, for relatively short (2-week) and longer (8-week) exposures. Thyroidal thyroxine (T4) content, the most sensitive index of decreased thyroid function, decreased markedly in response to increasing perchlorate exposure. Thyroid weight and plasma T4 were less sensitive indicators and similar in their ability to detect thyroid changes. Growth measurements (body wt and skeletal growth) were very insensitive indices. Because thyroids contain large hormone stores, with low exposures or short time periods, these stores can be used to maintain circulating hormones, at least temporarily. Most depletion of thyroidal T4 occurred during the first two weeks of AP exposure. Subsequent decreases were at a slower rate presumably because thyrotropin stimulation of the thyroids at least partially compensated for some of the perchlorate effect. Additional studies of the interactions between AP concentration and exposure time are needed for understanding the complex nature of thyroid responses to perchlorate.

Evaluating ecological indicators: lakes in the northeastern United States.

We use data from a survey of several hundred lakes in the northeastern United States by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to illustrate an approach to identifying promising indicators of lake condition. We construct a hypothetical gold standard of water quality from the first principal component of 16 chemical variables measured in the lakes, and examine its associations with 71 candidate indicators based on measurements of human activity, birds, fish and zooplankton in the lakes or their watersheds. Nonparametric summaries of these associations--based on rank correlations and receiver-operating-characteristic curves--suggest that variables summarizing the extent of human disturbance are generally the strongest indicators. To the extent that our water-quality variable is a useful proxy for ecological condition, our results suggest that easily-obtained measures of human activity are at least as predictive as many of the harder-to-measure biological indicators that have been proposed.