AlphaFold2-Enabled Atomistic Modeling of Structure, Conformational Ensembles, and Binding Energetics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 Spike Protein with ACE2 Host Receptor and Antibodies: Compensatory Functional Effects of Binding Hotspots in Modulating Mechanisms of Receptor Binding and Immune Escape.

The latest wave of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants displayed a growth advantage and increased viral fitness through convergent evolution of functional hotspots that work synchronously to balance fitness requirements for productive receptor binding and efficient immune evasion. In this study, we combined AlphaFold2-based structural modeling approaches with atomistic simulations and mutational profiling of binding energetics and stability for prediction and comprehensive analysis of the structure, dynamics, and binding of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 spike variant with ACE2 host receptor and distinct classes of antibodies. We adapted several AlphaFold2 approaches to predict both the structure and conformational ensembles of the Omicron BA.2.86 spike protein in the complex with the host receptor. The results showed that the AlphaFold2-predicted structural ensemble of the BA.2.86 spike protein complex with ACE2 can accurately capture the main conformational states of the Omicron variant. Complementary to AlphaFold2 structural predictions, microsecond molecular dynamics simulations reveal the details of the conformational landscape and produced equilibrium ensembles of the BA.2.86 structures that are used to perform mutational scanning of spike residues and characterize structural stability and binding energy hotspots. The ensemble-based mutational profiling of the receptor binding domain residues in the BA.2 and BA.2.86 spike complexes with ACE2 revealed a group of conserved hydrophobic hotspots and critical variant-specific contributions of the BA.2.86 convergent mutational hotspots R403K, F486P, and R493Q. To examine the immune evasion properties of BA.2.86 in atomistic detail, we performed structure-based mutational profiling of the spike protein binding interfaces with distinct classes of antibodies that displayed significantly reduced neutralization against the BA.2.86 variant. The results revealed the molecular basis of compensatory functional effects of the binding hotspots, showing that BA.2.86 lineage may have evolved to outcompete other Omicron subvariants by improving immune evasion while preserving binding affinity with ACE2 via through a compensatory effect of R493Q and F486P convergent mutational hotspots. This study demonstrated that an integrative approach combining AlphaFold2 predictions with complementary atomistic molecular dynamics simulations and robust ensemble-based mutational profiling of spike residues can enable accurate and comprehensive characterization of structure, dynamics, and binding mechanisms of newly emerging Omicron variants.

Exploring conformational landscapes and binding mechanisms of convergent evolution for the SARS-CoV-2 spike Omicron variant complexes with the ACE2 receptor using AlphaFold2-based structural ensembles and molecular dynamics simulations.

In this study, we combined AlphaFold-based approaches for atomistic modeling of multiple protein states and microsecond molecular simulations to accurately characterize conformational ensembles evolution and binding mechanisms of convergent evolution for the SARS-CoV-2 spike Omicron variants BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.75, BA.3, BA.4/BA.5 and BQ.1.1. We employed and validated several different adaptations of the AlphaFold methodology for modeling of conformational ensembles including the introduced randomized full sequence scanning for manipulation of sequence variations to systematically explore conformational dynamics of Omicron spike protein complexes with the ACE2 receptor. Microsecond atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide a detailed characterization of the conformational landscapes and thermodynamic stability of the Omicron variant complexes. By integrating the predictions of conformational ensembles from different AlphaFold adaptations and applying statistical confidence metrics we can expand characterization of the conformational ensembles and identify functional protein conformations that determine the equilibrium dynamics for the Omicron spike complexes with the ACE2. Conformational ensembles of the Omicron RBD-ACE2 complexes obtained using AlphaFold-based approaches for modeling protein states and MD simulations are employed for accurate comparative prediction of the binding energetics revealing an excellent agreement with the experimental data. In particular, the results demonstrated that AlphaFold-generated extended conformational ensembles can produce accurate binding energies for the Omicron RBD-ACE2 complexes. The results of this study suggested complementarities and potential synergies between AlphaFold predictions of protein conformational ensembles and MD simulations showing that integrating information from both methods can potentially yield a more adequate characterization of the conformational landscapes for the Omicron RBD-ACE2 complexes. This study provides insights in the interplay between conformational dynamics and binding, showing that evolution of Omicron variants through acquisition of convergent mutational sites may leverage conformational adaptability and dynamic couplings between key binding energy hotspots to optimize ACE2 binding affinity and enable immune evasion.

Ensemble-Based Mutational Profiling and Network Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Omicron XBB Lineages for Interactions with the ACE2 Receptor and Antibodies: Cooperation of Binding Hotspots in Mediating Epistatic Couplings Underlies Binding Mechanism and Immune Escape.

In this study, we performed a computational study of binding mechanisms for the SARS-CoV-2 spike Omicron XBB lineages with the host cell receptor ACE2 and a panel of diverse class one antibodies. The central objective of this investigation was to examine the molecular factors underlying epistatic couplings among convergent evolution hotspots that enable optimal balancing of ACE2 binding and antibody evasion for Omicron variants BA.1, BA2, BA.3, BA.4/BA.5, BQ.1.1, XBB.1, XBB.1.5, and XBB.1.5 + L455F/F456L. By combining evolutionary analysis, molecular dynamics simulations, and ensemble-based mutational scanning of spike protein residues in complexes with ACE2, we identified structural stability and binding affinity hotspots that are consistent with the results of biochemical studies. In agreement with the results of deep mutational scanning experiments, our quantitative analysis correctly reproduced strong and variant-specific epistatic effects in the XBB.1.5 and BA.2 variants. It was shown that Y453W and F456L mutations can enhance ACE2 binding when coupled with Q493 in XBB.1.5, while these mutations become destabilized when coupled with the R493 position in the BA.2 variant. The results provided a molecular rationale of the epistatic mechanism in Omicron variants, showing a central role of the Q493/R493 hotspot in modulating epistatic couplings between convergent mutational sites L455F and F456L in XBB lineages. The results of mutational scanning and binding analysis of the Omicron XBB spike variants with ACE2 receptors and a panel of class one antibodies provide a quantitative rationale for the experimental evidence that epistatic interactions of the physically proximal binding hotspots Y501, R498, Q493, L455F, and F456L can determine strong ACE2 binding, while convergent mutational sites F456L and F486P are instrumental in mediating broad antibody resistance. The study supports a mechanism in which the impact on ACE2 binding affinity is mediated through a small group of universal binding hotspots, while the effect of immune evasion could be more variant-dependent and modulated by convergent mutational sites in the conformationally adaptable spike regions.

Predicting Mutation-Induced Allosteric Changes in Structures and Conformational Ensembles of the ABL Kinase Using AlphaFold2 Adaptations with Alanine Sequence Scanning.

Despite the success of AlphaFold2 approaches in predicting single protein structures, these methods showed intrinsic limitations in predicting multiple functional conformations of allosteric proteins and have been challenged to accurately capture the effects of single point mutations that induced significant structural changes. We examined several implementations of AlphaFold2 methods to predict conformational ensembles for state-switching mutants of the ABL kinase. The results revealed that a combination of randomized alanine sequence masking with shallow multiple sequence alignment subsampling can significantly expand the conformational diversity of the predicted structural ensembles and capture shifts in populations of the active and inactive ABL states. Consistent with the NMR experiments, the predicted conformational ensembles for M309L/L320I and M309L/H415P ABL mutants that perturb the regulatory spine networks featured the increased population of the fully closed inactive state. The proposed adaptation of AlphaFold can reproduce the experimentally observed mutation-induced redistributions in the relative populations of the active and inactive ABL states and capture the effects of regulatory mutations on allosteric structural rearrangements of the kinase domain. The ensemble-based network analysis complemented AlphaFold predictions by revealing allosteric hotspots that correspond to state-switching mutational sites which may explain the global effect of regulatory mutations on structural changes between the ABL states. This study suggested that attention-based learning of long-range dependencies between sequence positions in homologous folds and deciphering patterns of allosteric interactions may further augment the predictive abilities of AlphaFold methods for modeling of alternative protein sates, conformational ensembles and mutation-induced structural transformations.

Atomistic Prediction of Structures, Conformational Ensembles and Binding Energetics for the SARS-CoV-2 Spike JN.1, KP.2 and KP.3 Variants Using AlphaFold2 and Molecular Dynamics Simulations: Mutational Profiling and Binding Free Energy Analysis Reveal Epistatic Hotspots of the ACE2 Affinity and Immune Escape.

The most recent wave of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants descending from BA.2 and BA.2.86 exhibited improved viral growth and fitness due to convergent evolution of functional hotspots. These hotspots operate in tandem to optimize both receptor binding for effective infection and immune evasion efficiency, thereby maintaining overall viral fitness. The lack of molecular details on structure, dynamics and binding energetics of the latest FLiRT and FLuQE variants with the ACE2 receptor and antibodies provides a considerable challenge that is explored in this study. We combined AlphaFold2-based atomistic predictions of structures and conformational ensembles of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike complexes with the host receptor ACE2 for the most dominant Omicron variants JN.1, KP.1, KP.2 and KP.3 to examine the mechanisms underlying the role of convergent evolution hotspots in balancing ACE2 binding and antibody evasion. Using the ensemble-based mutational scanning of the spike protein residues and computations of binding affinities, we identified binding energy hotspots and characterized molecular basis underlying epistatic couplings between convergent mutational hotspots. The results suggested that the existence of epistatic interactions between convergent mutational sites at L455, F456, Q493 positions that enable to protect and restore ACE2 binding affinity while conferring beneficial immune escape. To examine immune escape mechanisms, we performed structure-based mutational profiling of the spike protein binding with several classes of antibodies that displayed impaired neutralization against BA.2.86, JN.1, KP.2 and KP.3. The results confirmed the experimental data that JN.1, KP.2 and KP.3 harboring the L455S and F456L mutations can significantly impair the neutralizing activity of class-1 monoclonal antibodies, while the epistatic effects mediated by F456L can facilitate the subsequent convergence of Q493E changes to rescue ACE2 binding. Structural and energetic analysis provided a rationale to the experimental results showing that BD55-5840 and BD55-5514 antibodies that bind to different binding epitopes can retain neutralizing efficacy against all examined variants BA.2.86, JN.1, KP.2 and KP.3. The results support the notion that evolution of Omicron variants may favor emergence of lineages with beneficial combinations of mutations involving mediators of epistatic couplings that control balance of high ACE2 affinity and immune evasion.

AlphaFold2 Modeling and Molecular Dynamics Simulations of the Conformational Ensembles for the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Omicron JN.1, KP.2 and KP.3 Variants: Mutational Profiling of Binding Energetics Reveals Epistatic Drivers of the ACE2 Affinity and Escape Hotspots of Antibody Resistance.

The most recent wave of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants descending from BA.2 and BA.2.86 exhibited improved viral growth and fitness due to convergent evolution of functional hotspots. These hotspots operate in tandem to optimize both receptor binding for effective infection and immune evasion efficiency, thereby maintaining overall viral fitness. The lack of molecular details on structure, dynamics and binding energetics of the latest FLiRT and FLuQE variants with the ACE2 receptor and antibodies provides a considerable challenge that is explored in this study. We combined AlphaFold2-based atomistic predictions of structures and conformational ensembles of the SARS-CoV-2 spike complexes with the host receptor ACE2 for the most dominant Omicron variants JN.1, KP.1, KP.2 and KP.3 to examine the mechanisms underlying the role of convergent evolution hotspots in balancing ACE2 binding and antibody evasion. Using the ensemble-based mutational scanning of the spike protein residues and computations of binding affinities, we identified binding energy hotspots and characterized the molecular basis underlying epistatic couplings between convergent mutational hotspots. The results suggested the existence of epistatic interactions between convergent mutational sites at L455, F456, Q493 positions that protect and restore ACE2-binding affinity while conferring beneficial immune escape. To examine immune escape mechanisms, we performed structure-based mutational profiling of the spike protein binding with several classes of antibodies that displayed impaired neutralization against BA.2.86, JN.1, KP.2 and KP.3. The results confirmed the experimental data that JN.1, KP.2 and KP.3 harboring the L455S and F456L mutations can significantly impair the neutralizing activity of class 1 monoclonal antibodies, while the epistatic effects mediated by F456L can facilitate the subsequent convergence of Q493E changes to rescue ACE2 binding. Structural and energetic analysis provided a rationale to the experimental results showing that BD55-5840 and BD55-5514 antibodies that bind to different binding epitopes can retain neutralizing efficacy against all examined variants BA.2.86, JN.1, KP.2 and KP.3. The results support the notion that evolution of Omicron variants may favor emergence of lineages with beneficial combinations of mutations involving mediators of epistatic couplings that control balance of high ACE2 affinity and immune evasion.

AlphaFold2 Predictions of Conformational Ensembles and Atomistic Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike XBB Lineages Reveal Epistatic Couplings between Convergent Mutational Hotspots that Control ACE2 Affinity.

In this study, we combined AlphaFold-based atomistic structural modeling, microsecond molecular simulations, mutational profiling, and network analysis to characterize binding mechanisms of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein with the host receptor ACE2 for a series of Omicron XBB variants including XBB.1.5, XBB.1.5+L455F, XBB.1.5+F456L, and XBB.1.5+L455F+F456L. AlphaFold-based structural and dynamic modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Spike XBB lineages can accurately predict the experimental structures and characterize conformational ensembles of the spike protein complexes with the ACE2. Microsecond molecular dynamics simulations identified important differences in the conformational landscapes and equilibrium ensembles of the XBB variants, suggesting that combining AlphaFold predictions of multiple conformations with molecular dynamics simulations can provide a complementary approach for the characterization of functional protein states and binding mechanisms. Using the ensemble-based mutational profiling of protein residues and physics-based rigorous calculations of binding affinities, we identified binding energy hotspots and characterized the molecular basis underlying epistatic couplings between convergent mutational hotspots. Consistent with the experiments, the results revealed the mediating role of the Q493 hotspot in the synchronization of epistatic couplings between L455F and F456L mutations, providing a quantitative insight into the energetic determinants underlying binding differences between XBB lineages. We also proposed a network-based perturbation approach for mutational profiling of allosteric communications and uncovered the important relationships between allosteric centers mediating long-range communication and binding hotspots of epistatic couplings. The results of this study support a mechanism in which the binding mechanisms of the XBB variants may be determined by epistatic effects between convergent evolutionary hotspots that control ACE2 binding.

Predicting Functional Conformational Ensembles and Binding Mechanisms of Convergent Evolution for SARS-CoV-2 Spike Omicron Variants Using AlphaFold2 Sequence Scanning Adaptations and Molecular Dynamics Simulations.

In this study, we combined AlphaFold-based approaches for atomistic modeling of multiple protein states and microsecond molecular simulations to accurately characterize conformational ensembles and binding mechanisms of convergent evolution for the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Omicron variants BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.75, BA.3, BA.4/BA.5 and BQ.1.1. We employed and validated several different adaptations of the AlphaFold methodology for modeling of conformational ensembles including the introduced randomized full sequence scanning for manipulation of sequence variations to systematically explore conformational dynamics of Omicron Spike protein complexes with the ACE2 receptor. Microsecond atomistic molecular dynamic simulations provide a detailed characterization of the conformational landscapes and thermodynamic stability of the Omicron variant complexes. By integrating the predictions of conformational ensembles from different AlphaFold adaptations and applying statistical confidence metrics we can expand characterization of the conformational ensembles and identify functional protein conformations that determine the equilibrium dynamics for the Omicron Spike complexes with the ACE2. Conformational ensembles of the Omicron RBD-ACE2 complexes obtained using AlphaFold-based approaches for modeling protein states and molecular dynamics simulations are employed for accurate comparative prediction of the binding energetics revealing an excellent agreement with the experimental data. In particular, the results demonstrated that AlphaFold-generated extended conformational ensembles can produce accurate binding energies for the Omicron RBD-ACE2 complexes. The results of this study suggested complementarities and potential synergies between AlphaFold predictions of protein conformational ensembles and molecular dynamics simulations showing that integrating information from both methods can potentially yield a more adequate characterization of the conformational landscapes for the Omicron RBD-ACE2 complexes. This study provides insights in the interplay between conformational dynamics and binding, showing that evolution of Omicron variants through acquisition of convergent mutational sites may leverage conformational adaptability and dynamic couplings between key binding energy hotspots to optimize ACE2 binding affinity and enable immune evasion.

Probing Functional Allosteric States and Conformational Ensembles of the Allosteric Protein Kinase States and Mutants: Atomistic Modeling and Comparative Analysis of AlphaFold2, OmegaFold, and AlphaFlow Approaches and Adaptations.

This study reports a comprehensive analysis and comparison of several AlphaFold2 adaptations and OmegaFold and AlphaFlow approaches in predicting distinct allosteric states, conformational ensembles, and mutation-induced structural effects for a panel of state-switching allosteric ABL mutants. The results revealed that the proposed AlphaFold2 adaptation with randomized alanine sequence scanning can generate functionally relevant allosteric states and conformational ensembles of the ABL kinase that qualitatively capture a unique pattern of population shifts between the active and inactive states in the allosteric ABL mutants. Consistent with the NMR experiments, the proposed AlphaFold2 adaptation predicted that G269E/M309L/T408Y mutant could induce population changes and sample a significant fraction of the fully inactive I2 form which is a low-populated, high-energy state for the wild-type ABL protein. We also demonstrated that other ABL mutants G269E/M309L/T334I and M309L/L320I/T334I that introduce a single activating T334I mutation can reverse equilibrium and populate exclusively the active ABL form. While the precise quantitative predictions of the relative populations of the active and various hidden inactive states in the ABL mutants remain challenging, our results provide evidence that AlphaFold2 adaptation with randomized alanine sequence scanning can adequately detect a spectrum of the allosteric ABL states and capture the equilibrium redistributions between structurally distinct functional ABL conformations. We further validated the robustness of the proposed AlphaFold2 adaptation for predicting the unique inactive architecture of the BSK8 kinase and structural differences between ligand-unbound apo and ATP-bound forms of BSK8. The results of this comparative study suggested that AlpahFold2, OmegaFold, and AlphaFlow approaches may be driven by structural memorization of existing protein folds and are strongly biased toward predictions of the thermodynamically stable ground states of the protein kinases, highlighting limitations and challenges of AI-based methodologies in detecting alternative functional conformations, accurate characterization of physically significant conformational ensembles, and prediction of mutation-induced allosteric structural changes.

Prediction of Conformational Ensembles and Structural Effects of State-Switching Allosteric Mutants in the Protein Kinases Using Comparative Analysis of AlphaFold2 Adaptations with Sequence Masking and Shallow Subsampling.

Despite the success of AlphaFold2 approaches in predicting single protein structures, these methods showed intrinsic limitations in predicting multiple functional conformations of allosteric proteins and have been challenged to accurately capture of the effects of single point mutations that induced significant structural changes. We systematically examined several implementations of AlphaFold2 methods to predict conformational ensembles for state-switching mutants of the ABL kinase. The results revealed that a combination of randomized alanine sequence masking with shallow multiple sequence alignment subsampling can significantly expand the conformational diversity of the predicted structural ensembles and capture shifts in populations of the active and inactive ABL states. Consistent with the NMR experiments, the predicted conformational ensembles for M309L/L320I and M309L/H415P ABL mutants that perturb the regulatory spine networks featured the increased population of the fully closed inactive state. On the other hand, the predicted conformational ensembles for the G269E/M309L/T334I and M309L/L320I/T334I triple ABL mutants that share activating T334I gate-keeper substitution are dominated by the active ABL form. The proposed adaptation of AlphaFold can reproduce the experimentally observed mutation-induced redistributions in the relative populations of the active and inactive ABL states and capture the effects of regulatory mutations on allosteric structural rearrangements of the kinase domain. The ensemble-based network analysis complemented AlphaFold predictions by revealing allosteric mediating centers that often directly correspond to state-switching mutational sites or reside in their immediate local structural proximity, which may explain the global effect of regulatory mutations on structural changes between the ABL states. This study suggested that attention-based learning of long-range dependencies between sequence positions in homologous folds and deciphering patterns of allosteric interactions may further augment the predictive abilities of AlphaFold methods for modeling of alternative protein sates, conformational ensembles and mutation-induced structural transformations.

Interpretable Atomistic Prediction and Functional Analysis of Conformational Ensembles and Allosteric States in Protein Kinases Using AlphaFold2 Adaptation with Randomized Sequence Scanning and Local Frustration Profiling.

The groundbreaking achievements of AlphaFold2 (AF2) approaches in protein structure modeling marked a transformative era in structural biology. Despite the success of AF2 tools in predicting single protein structures, these methods showed intrinsic limitations in predicting multiple functional conformations of allosteric proteins and fold-switching systems. The recent NMR-based structural determination of the unbound ABL kinase in the active state and two inactive low-populated functional conformations that are unique for ABL kinase presents an ideal challenge for AF2 approaches. In the current study we employ several implementations of AF2 methods to predict protein conformational ensembles and allosteric states of the ABL kinase including (a) multiple sequence alignments (MSA) subsampling approach; (b) SPEACH_AF approach in which alanine scanning is performed on generated MSAs; and (c) introduced in this study randomized full sequence mutational scanning for manipulation of sequence variations combined with the MSA subsampling. We show that the proposed AF2 adaptation combined with local frustration mapping of conformational states enable accurate prediction of the ABL active and intermediate structures and conformational ensembles, also offering a robust approach for interpretable characterization of the AF2 predictions and limitations in detecting hidden allosteric states. We found that the large high frustration residue clusters are uniquely characteristic of the low-populated, fully inactive ABL form and can define energetically frustrated cracking sites of conformational transitions, presenting difficult targets for AF2 methods. This study uncovered previously unappreciated, fundamental connections between distinct patterns of local frustration in functional kinase states and AF2 successes/limitations in detecting low-populated frustrated conformations, providing a better understanding of benefits and limitations of current AF2-based adaptations in modeling of conformational ensembles.

Integration of a Randomized Sequence Scanning Approach in AlphaFold2 and Local Frustration Profiling of Conformational States Enable Interpretable Atomistic Characterization of Conformational Ensembles and Detection of Hidden Allosteric States in the ABL1 Protein Kinase.

Despite the success of AlphaFold methods in predicting single protein structures, these methods showed intrinsic limitations in the characterization of multiple functional conformations of allosteric proteins. The recent NMR-based structural determination of the unbound ABL kinase in the active state and discovery of the inactive low-populated functional conformations that are unique for ABL kinase present an ideal challenge for the AlphaFold2 approaches. In the current study, we employ several adaptations of the AlphaFold2 methodology to predict protein conformational ensembles and allosteric states of the ABL kinase including randomized alanine sequence scanning combined with the multiple sequence alignment subsampling proposed in this study. We show that the proposed new AlphaFold2 adaptation combined with local frustration profiling of conformational states enables accurate prediction of the protein kinase structures and conformational ensembles, also offering a robust approach for interpretable characterization of the AlphaFold2 predictions and detection of hidden allosteric states. We found that the large high frustration residue clusters are uniquely characteristic of the low-populated, fully inactive ABL form and can define energetically frustrated cracking sites of conformational transitions, presenting difficult targets for AlphaFold2. The results of this study uncovered previously unappreciated fundamental connections between local frustration profiles of the functional allosteric states and the ability of AlphaFold2 methods to predict protein structural ensembles of the active and inactive states. This study showed that integration of the randomized sequence scanning adaptation of AlphaFold2 with a robust landscape-based analysis allows for interpretable atomistic predictions and characterization of protein conformational ensembles, providing a physical basis for the successes and limitations of current AlphaFold2 methods in detecting functional allosteric states that play a significant role in protein kinase regulation.

Accurate Characterization of Conformational Ensembles and Binding Mechanisms of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 and BA.2.86 Spike Protein with the Host Receptor and Distinct Classes of Antibodies Using AlphaFold2-Augmented Integrative Computational Modeling.

The latest wave SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants displayed a growth advantage and the increased viral fitness through convergent evolution of functional hotspots that work synchronously to balance fitness requirements for productive receptor binding and efficient immune evasion. In this study, we combined AlphaFold2-based structural modeling approaches with all-atom MD simulations and mutational profiling of binding energetics and stability for prediction and comprehensive analysis of the structure, dynamics, and binding of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.86 spike variant with ACE2 host receptor and distinct classes of antibodies. We adapted several AlphaFold2 approaches to predict both structure and conformational ensembles of the Omicron BA.2.86 spike protein in the complex with the host receptor. The results showed that AlphaFold2-predicted conformational ensemble of the BA.2.86 spike protein complex can accurately capture the main dynamics signatures obtained from microscond molecular dynamics simulations. The ensemble-based dynamic mutational scanning of the receptor binding domain residues in the BA.2 and BA.2.86 spike complexes with ACE2 dissected the role of the BA.2 and BA.2.86 backgrounds in modulating binding free energy changes revealing a group of conserved hydrophobic hotspots and critical variant-specific contributions of the BA.2.86 mutational sites R403K, F486P and R493Q. To examine immune evasion properties of BA.2.86 in atomistic detail, we performed large scale structure-based mutational profiling of the S protein binding interfaces with distinct classes of antibodies that displayed significantly reduced neutralization against BA.2.86 variant. The results quantified specific function of the BA.2.86 mutations to ensure broad resistance against different classes of RBD antibodies. This study revealed the molecular basis of compensatory functional effects of the binding hotspots, showing that BA.2.86 lineage may have primarily evolved to improve immune escape while modulating binding affinity with ACE2 through cooperative effect of R403K, F486P and R493Q mutations. The study supports a hypothesis that the impact of the increased ACE2 binding affinity on viral fitness is more universal and is mediated through cross-talk between convergent mutational hotspots, while the effect of immune evasion could be more variant-dependent.

AlphaFold2-Enabled Atomistic Modeling of Epistatic Binding Mechanisms for the SARS-CoV-2 Spike Omicron XBB.1.5, EG.5 and FLip Variants: Convergent Evolution Hotspots Cooperate to Control Stability and Conformational Adaptability in Balancing ACE2 Binding and Antibody Resistance.

In this study, we combined AI-based atomistic structural modeling and microsecond molecular simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike complexes with the host receptor ACE2 for XBB.1.5+L455F, XBB.1.5+F456L(EG.5) and XBB.1.5+L455F/F456L (FLip) lineages to examine the mechanisms underlying the role of convergent evolution hotspots in balancing ACE2 binding and antibody evasion. Using the ensemble-based mutational scanning of the spike protein residues and physics-based rigorous computations of binding affinities, we identified binding energy hotspots and characterized molecular basis underlying epistatic couplings between convergent mutational hotspots. Consistent with the experiments, the results revealed the mediating role of Q493 hotspot in synchronization of epistatic couplings between L455F and F456L mutations providing a quantitative insight into the mechanism underlying differences between XBB lineages. Mutational profiling is combined with network-based model of epistatic couplings showing that the Q493, L455 and F456 sites mediate stable communities at the binding interface with ACE2 and can serve as stable mediators of non-additive couplings. Structure-based mutational analysis of Spike protein binding with the class 1 antibodies quantified the critical role of F456L and F486P mutations in eliciting strong immune evasion response. The results of this analysis support a mechanism in which the emergence of EG.5 and FLip variants may have been dictated by leveraging strong epistatic effects between several convergent revolutionary hotspots that provide synergy between the improved ACE2 binding and broad neutralization resistance. This interpretation is consistent with the notion that functionally balanced substitutions which simultaneously optimize immune evasion and high ACE2 affinity may continue to emerge through lineages with beneficial pair or triplet combinations of RBD mutations involving mediators of epistatic couplings and sites in highly adaptable RBD regions.