Early transfusion patterns improve the Molecular International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-M) prediction in myelodysplastic syndromes.

BACKGROUND: The Molecular International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-M) is the new gold standard for diagnostic outcome prediction in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). This study was designed to assess the additive prognostic impact of dynamic transfusion parameters during early follow-up. METHODS: We retrieved complete transfusion data from 677 adult Swedish MDS patients included in the IPSS-M cohort. Time-dependent erythrocyte transfusion dependency (E-TD) was added to IPSS-M features and analyzed regarding overall survival and leukemic transformation (acute myeloid leukemia). A multistate Markov model was applied to assess the prognostic value of early changes in transfusion patterns. RESULTS: Specific clinical and genetic features were predicted for diagnostic and time-dependent transfusion patterns. Importantly, transfusion state both at diagnosis and within the first year strongly predicts outcomes in both lower (LR) and higher-risk (HR) MDSs. In multivariable analysis, 8-month landmark E-TD predicted shorter survival independently of IPSS-M (p < 0.001). A predictive model based on IPSS-M and 8-month landmark E-TD performed significantly better than a model including only IPSS-M. Similar trends were observed in an independent validation cohort (n = 218). Early transfusion patterns impacted both future transfusion requirements and outcomes in a multistate Markov model. CONCLUSION: The transfusion requirement is a robust and available clinical parameter incorporating the effects of first-line management. In MDS, it provides dynamic risk information independently of diagnostic IPSS-M and, in particular, clinical guidance to LR MDS patients eligible for potentially curative therapeutic intervention.

Patient-Specific Measurable Residual Disease Markers Predict Outcome in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome and Related Diseases After Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation.

PURPOSE: Clinical relapse is the major threat for patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) undergoing hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT). Early detection of measurable residual disease (MRD) would enable preemptive treatment and potentially reduced relapse risk. METHODS: Patients with MDS planned for HSCT were enrolled in a prospective, observational study evaluating the association between MRD and clinical outcome. We collected bone marrow (BM) and peripheral blood samples until relapse, death, or end of study 24 months after HSCT. Patient-specific mutations were identified with targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS) panel and traced using droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR). RESULTS: Of 266 included patients, estimated relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) rates 3 years after HSCT were 59% and 64%, respectively. MRD results were available for 221 patients. Relapse was preceded by positive BM MRD in 42/44 relapses with complete MRD data, by a median of 71 (23-283) days. Of 137 patients in continuous complete remission, 93 were consistently MRD-negative, 39 reverted from MRD+ to MRD-, and five were MRD+ at last sampling. Estimated 1 year-RFS after first positive MRD was 49%, 39%, and 30%, using cutoff levels of 0.1%, 0.3%, and 0.5%, respectively. In a multivariate Cox model, MRD (hazard ratio [HR], 7.99), WHO subgroup AML (HR, 4.87), TP53 multi-hit (HR, 2.38), NRAS (HR, 3.55), and acute GVHD grade III-IV (HR, 4.13) were associated with shorter RFS. MRD+ was also independently associated with shorter OS (HR, 2.65). In a subgroup analysis of 100 MRD+ patients, presence of chronic GVHD was associated with longer RFS (HR, 0.32). CONCLUSION: Assessment of individualized MRD using NGS + ddPCR is feasible and can be used for early detection of relapse. Positive MRD is associated with shorter RFS and OS (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02872662).