Predicting the main pollen season of Broussonetia Papyrifera (paper mulberry) tree.

Paper mulberry pollen, declared a pest in several countries including Pakistan, can trigger severe allergies and cause asthma attacks. We aimed to develop an algorithm that could accurately predict high pollen days to underpin an alert system that would allow patients to take timely precautionary measures. We developed and validated two prediction models that take historical pollen and weather data as their input to predict the start date and peak date of the pollen season in Islamabad, the capital city of Pakistan. The first model is based on linear regression and the second one is based on phenological modelling. We tested our models on an original and comprehensive dataset from Islamabad. The mean absolute errors (MAEs) for the start day are 2.3 and 3.7 days for the linear and phenological models, respectively, while for the peak day, the MAEs are 3.3 and 4.0 days, respectively. These encouraging results could be used in a website or app to notify patients and healthcare providers to start preparing for the paper mulberry pollen season. Timely action could reduce the burden of symptoms, mitigate the risk of acute attacks and potentially prevent deaths due to acute pollen-induced allergy.

Association of asthma exacerbations with paper mulberry (Broussenetia papyrifera) pollen in Islamabad: An observational study.

Background: Although the role of airborne plant pollen in causing allergic rhinitis has been established, the association of concentrations of paper mulberry (Broussenetia papyrifera) pollens in the air and incidence of asthma exacerbations has not, despite an observed increase in the number of asthma patients attending physician clinics and hospital Accident and Emergency (A&E) Departments during the paper mulberry pollen season. We aimed to assess the association between paper mulberry pollen concentrations (typically peaking in March each year) and asthma exacerbations in the city of Islamabad. Methods: We used three approaches to investigate the correlation of paper mulberry pollen concentration with asthma exacerbations: A retrospective analysis of historical records (2000-2019) of asthma exacerbations of patients from the Allergy and Asthma Institute, Pakistan (n = 284), an analysis of daily nebulisations in patients attending the A&E Department of the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (March 2020 to July 2021), a prospective peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) diary from participants (n = 40) with or without asthma and with or without paper mulberry sensitisation. We examined associations between pollen data and asthma exacerbations using Pearson correlation. Results: We found a strong positive correlation between mean paper mulberry pollen counts and clinical records of asthma exacerbations in patients sensitised to paper mulberry (Pearson correlation coefficient (r) = 0.86; P < 0.001), but not in non-sensitised patients (r = 0.32; P = 0.3). There was a moderate positive correlation between monthly nebulisation counts and pollen counts (r = 0.56; P = 0.03), and a strong negative correlation between percent predicted PEFR and pollen counts in sensitised asthma patients (r = -0.72, P < 0.001). However, these correlations were of low magnitude in the non-sensitised asthma (r = -0.16; P < 0.001) and sensitised non-asthma (r = -0.28; P < 0.001) groups. Conclusions: Our three approaches to analysis all showed an association between high paper mulberry pollen concentration in Islamabad and asthma exacerbations. Predicting pollen peaks could enable alerts and mobilise strategies to proactively manage these peaks of asthma exacerbations.

Understanding the usability issues in contact management of illiterate and semi-literate users.

The effective utilization of a communication channel like calling a person involves two steps. The first step is storing the contact information of another user, and the second step is finding contact information to initiate a voice or text communication. However, the current smartphone interfaces for contact management are mainly textual; which leaves many emergent users at a severe disadvantage in using this most basic functionality to the fullest. Previous studies indicated that less-educated users adopt various coping strategies to store and identify contacts. However, all of these studies investigated the contact management issues of these users from a qualitative angle. Although qualitative or subjective investigations are very useful, they generally need to be augmented by a quantitative investigation for a comprehensive problem understanding. This work presents an exploratory study to identify the usability issues and coping strategies in contact management by emergent users; by using a mixture of qualitative and quantitative approaches. We identified coping strategies of the Pakistani population and the effectiveness of these strategies through a semi-structured qualitative study of 15 participants and a usability study of 9 participants, respectively. We then obtained logged data of 30 emergent and 30 traditional users, including contact-books and dual-channel (call and text messages) logs to infer a more detailed understanding; and to analyse the differences in the composition of contact-books of both user groups. The analysis of the log data confirmed problems that affect the emergent users' communication behaviour due to the various difficulties they face in storing and searching contacts. Our findings revealed serious usability issues in current communication interfaces over smartphones. The emergent users were found to have smaller contact-books and preferred voice communication due to reading/writing difficulties. They also reported taking help from others for contact saving and text reading. The alternative contact management strategies adopted by our participants include: memorizing whole number or last few digits to recall important contacts; adding special character sequence with contact numbers for better recall; writing a contact from scratch rather than searching it in the phone-book; voice search; and use of recent call logs to redial a contact. The identified coping strategies of emergent users could aid the developers and designers to come up with solutions according to emergent users' mental models and needs.

Exploiting contextual information to improve call prediction.

With the increase in contact list size of mobile phone users, the management and retrieval of contacts has becomes a tedious job. In this study, we analysed some important dimensions that can effectively contribute in predicting which contact a user is going to call at time t. We improved a state of the art algorithm, that uses frequency and recency by adding temporal information as an additional dimension for predicting future calls. The proposed algorithm performs better in overall analysis, but more significantly there was an improvement in the prediction of top contacts of a user as compared to the base algorithm.