Maternally derived antibody titer dynamics and risk of hospitalized infant dengue disease.

Infants less than 1 y of age experience high rates of dengue disease in dengue virus (DENV) endemic countries. This burden is commonly attributed to antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), whereby concentrations of maternally derived DENV antibodies become subneutralizing, and infection-enhancing. Understanding antibody-related mechanisms of enhanced infant dengue disease risk represents a significant challenge due to the dynamic nature of antibodies and their imperfect measurement processes. Further, key uncertainties exist regarding the impact of long-term shifts in birth rates, population-level infection risks, and maternal ages on the DENV immune landscape of newborns and their subsequent risks of severe dengue disease in infancy. Here, we analyze DENV antibody data from two infant cohorts (N = 142 infants with 605 blood draws) and 40 y of infant dengue hospitalization data from Thailand. We use mathematical models to reconstruct maternally derived antibody dynamics, accounting for discretized measurement processes and limits of assay detection. We then explore possible antibody-related mechanisms of enhanced infant dengue disease risk and their ability to reconstruct the observed age distribution of hospitalized infant dengue cases. We find that ADE mechanisms are best able to reconstruct the observed data. Finally, we describe how the shifting epidemiology of dengue in Thailand, combined with declining birth rates, have decreased the absolute risk of infant dengue disease by 88% over a 40-y period while having minimal impact on the mean age of infant hospitalized dengue disease.

Assessing the role of multiple mechanisms increasing the age of dengue cases in Thailand.

The mean age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases increased considerably in Thailand from 8.1 to 24.3 y between 1981 and 2017 (mean annual increase of 0.45 y). Alternative proposed explanations for this trend, such as changes in surveillance practices, reduced mosquito­human contact, and shifts in population demographics, have different implications for global dengue epidemiology. To evaluate the contribution of each of these hypothesized mechanisms to the observed data, we developed 20 nested epidemiological models of dengue virus infection, allowing for variation over time in population demographics, infection hazards, and reporting rates. We also quantified the effect of removing or retaining each source of variation in simulations of the age trajectory. Shifts in the age structure of susceptibility explained 58% of the observed change in age. Adding heterogeneous reporting by age and reductions in per-serotype infection hazard to models with shifts in susceptibility explained an additional 42%. Reductions in infection hazards were mostly driven by changes in the number of infectious individuals at any time (another consequence of shifting age demographics) rather than changes in the transmissibility of individual infections. We conclude that the demographic transition drives the overwhelming majority of the observed change as it changes both the age structure of susceptibility and the number of infectious individuals. With the projected Thai population age structure, our results suggest a continuing increase in age of DHF cases, shifting the burden toward individuals with more comorbidity. These insights into dengue epidemiology may be relevant to many regions of the globe currently undergoing comparable changes in population demographics.

Genetic variation that determines TAPBP expression levels associates with the course of malaria in an HLA allotype-dependent manner.

HLA class I (HLA-I) allotypes vary widely in their dependence on tapasin (TAPBP), an integral component of the peptide-loading complex, to present peptides on the cell surface. We identified two single-nucleotide polymorphisms that regulate TAPBP messenger RNA (mRNA) expression in Africans, rs111686073 (G/C) and rs59097151 (A/G), located in an AP-2α transcription factor binding site and a microRNA (miR)-4486 binding site, respectively. rs111686073G and rs59097151A induced significantly higher TAPBP mRNA expression relative to the alternative alleles due to higher affinity for AP-2α and abrogation of miR-4486 binding, respectively. These variants associated with lower Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence and lower incidence of clinical malaria specifically among individuals carrying tapasin-dependent HLA-I allotypes, presumably by augmenting peptide loading, whereas tapasin-independent allotypes associated with relative protection, regardless of imputed TAPBP mRNA expression levels. Thus, an attenuated course of malaria may occur through enhanced breadth and/or magnitude of antigen presentation, an important consideration when evaluating vaccine efficacy.

Beneath the surface: Amino acid variation underlying two decades of dengue virus antigenic dynamics in Bangkok, Thailand.

Neutralizing antibodies are important correlates of protection against dengue. Yet, determinants of variation in neutralization across strains within the four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) is imperfectly understood. Studies focus on structural DENV proteins, especially the envelope (E), the primary target of anti-DENV antibodies. Although changes in immune recognition (antigenicity) are often attributed to variation in epitope residues, viral processes influencing conformation and epitope accessibility also affect neutralizability, suggesting possible modulating roles of nonstructural proteins. We estimated effects of residue changes in all 10 DENV proteins on antigenic distances between 348 DENV collected from individuals living in Bangkok, Thailand (1994-2014). Antigenic distances were derived from response of each virus to a panel of twenty non-human primate antisera. Across 100 estimations, excluding 10% of virus pairs each time, 77 of 295 positions with residue variability in E consistently conferred antigenic effects; 52 were within ±3 sites of known binding sites of neutralizing human monoclonal antibodies, exceeding expectations from random assignments of effects to sites (p = 0.037). Effects were also identified for 16 sites on the stem/anchor of E which were only recently shown to become exposed under physiological conditions. For all proteins, except nonstructural protein 2A (NS2A), root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) in predicting distances between pairs held out in each estimation did not outperform sequences of equal length derived from all proteins or E, suggesting that antigenic signals present were likely through linkage with E. Adjusted for E, we identified 62/219 sites embedding the excess signals in NS2A. Concatenating these sites to E additionally explained 3.4% to 4.0% of observed variance in antigenic distances compared to E alone (50.5% to 50.8%); RMSE outperformed concatenating E with sites from any protein of the virus (ΔRMSE, 95%IQR: 0.01, 0.05). Our results support examining antigenic determinants beyond the DENV surface.

Reconstruction of antibody dynamics and infection histories to evaluate dengue risk.

As with many pathogens, most dengue infections are subclinical and therefore unobserved 1 . Coupled with limited understanding of the dynamic behaviour of potential serological markers of infection, this observational problem has wide-ranging implications, including hampering our understanding of individual- and population-level correlates of infection and disease risk and how these change over time, between assay interpretations and with cohort design. Here we develop a framework that simultaneously characterizes antibody dynamics and identifies subclinical infections via Bayesian augmentation from detailed cohort data (3,451 individuals with blood draws every 91 days, 143,548 haemagglutination inhibition assay titre measurements)2,3. We identify 1,149 infections (95% confidence interval, 1,135-1,163) that were not detected by active surveillance and estimate that 65% of infections are subclinical. After infection, individuals develop a stable set point antibody load after one year that places them within or outside a risk window. Individuals with pre-existing titres of ≤1:40 develop haemorrhagic fever 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-8.2) times more often than naive individuals compared to 0.0 times for individuals with titres >1:40 (95% confidence interval: 0.0-1.3). Plaque reduction neutralization test titres ≤1:100 were similarly associated with severe disease. Across the population, variability in the size of epidemics results in large-scale temporal changes in infection and disease risk that correlate poorly with age.

SARS-CoV-2 Serology Across Scales: A Framework for Unbiased Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Incorporating Antibody Kinetics and Epidemic Recency.

Serosurveys are a key resource for measuring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) population exposure. A growing body of evidence suggests that asymptomatic and mild infections (together making up over 95% of all infections) are associated with lower antibody titers than severe infections. Antibody levels also peak a few weeks after infection and decay gradually. We developed a statistical approach to produce estimates of cumulative incidence from raw seroprevalence survey results that account for these sources of spectrum bias. We incorporate data on antibody responses on multiple assays from a postinfection longitudinal cohort, along with epidemic time series to account for the timing of a serosurvey relative to how recently individuals may have been infected. We applied this method to produce estimates of cumulative incidence from 5 large-scale SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys across different settings and study designs. We identified substantial differences between raw seroprevalence and cumulative incidence of over 2-fold in the results of some surveys, and we provide a tool for practitioners to generate cumulative incidence estimates with preset or custom parameter values. While unprecedented efforts have been launched to generate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimates over this past year, interpretation of results from these studies requires properly accounting for both population-level epidemiologic context and individual-level immune dynamics.

Individual, Household, and Community Drivers of Dengue Virus Infection Risk in Kamphaeng Phet Province, Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Dengue virus (DENV) often circulates endemically. In such settings with high levels of transmission, it remains unclear whether there are risk factors that alter individual infection risk. METHODS: We tested blood taken from individuals living in multigenerational households in Kamphaeng Phet province, Thailand for DENV antibodies (N = 2364, mean age 31 years). Seropositivity ranged from 45.4% among those 1-5 years old to 99.5% for those >30 years. Using spatially explicit catalytic models, we estimated that 11.8% of the susceptible population gets infected annually. RESULTS: We found that 37.5% of the variance in seropositivity was explained by unmeasured household-level effects with only 4.2% explained by spatial differences between households. The serostatus of individuals from the same household remained significantly correlated even when separated by up to 15 years in age. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show that despite highly endemic transmission, persistent differences in infection risk exist across households, the reasons for which remain unclear.

Association of Inhibitory Killer Cell Immunoglobulin-like Receptor Ligands With Higher Plasmodium falciparum Parasite Prevalence.

Killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs) and their HLA ligands influence the outcome of many infectious diseases. We analyzed the relationship of compound KIR-HLA genotypes with risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection in a longitudinal cohort of 890 Ugandan individuals. We found that presence of HLA-C2 and HLA-Bw4, ligands for inhibitory KIR2DL1 and KIR3DL1, respectively, increased the likelihood of P. falciparum parasitemia in an additive manner. Individuals homozygous for HLA-C2, which mediates strong inhibition via KIR2DL1, had the highest odds of parasitemia, HLA-C1/C2 heterozygotes had intermediate odds, and individuals homozygous for HLA-C1, which mediates weaker inhibition through KIR2DL2/3, had the lowest odds of parasitemia. In addition, higher surface expression of HLA-C, the ligand for inhibitory KIR2DL1/2/3, was associated with a higher likelihood of parasitemia. Together these data indicate that stronger KIR-mediated inhibition confers a higher risk of P. falciparum parasitemia and suggest that KIR-expressing effector cells play a role in mediating antiparasite immunity.

Age-Related Changes in Malaria Clinical Phenotypes During Infancy Are Modified by Sickle Cell Trait.

BACKGROUND: Infants are protected against Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Mechanisms that drive this protection remain unclear due to a poor understanding of malaria clinical phenotypes during infancy. METHODS: We enrolled a birth cohort of 678 infants in Busia, Uganda, an area of high malaria transmission. We followed infants through 12 months of age and quantified protection against parasitemia and clinical disease. RESULTS: Symptomatic malaria incidence increased from 1.2 to 2.6 episodes per person-year between 0 and <6 months and between 6 and 12 months of age, while the monthly probability of asymptomatic parasitemia given infection decreased from 32% to 21%. Sickle cell trait (HbAS) was protective against symptomatic malaria (incidence rate ratio  = 0.57 comparing HbAS vs hemoglobin AA (HbAA); 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.74; P < .001), but age modified this relationship (Pint = <0.001), with nonlinear protection that waned between 0 and 9 months of age before increasing. Increasing age was associated with higher parasite densities at the time of infection and, in infants with HbAS, a reduced ability to tolerate high parasite densities without fever. CONCLUSIONS: Age-dependent changes in HbAS protective efficacy in infancy were accompanied by differential loss of antiparasite and antidisease protection among HbAS and HbAA infants. This provides a framework for investigating the mechanisms that underlie infant protection against malaria. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02793622.

Comparison of infection control strategies to reduce COVID-19 outbreaks in homeless shelters in the United States: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 outbreaks have occurred in homeless shelters across the US, highlighting an urgent need to identify the most effective infection control strategy to prevent future outbreaks. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a homeless shelter and calibrated it to data from cross-sectional polymerase chain reaction (PCR) surveys conducted during COVID-19 outbreaks in five homeless shelters in three US cities from March 28 to April 10, 2020. We estimated the probability of averting a COVID-19 outbreak when an exposed individual is introduced into a representative homeless shelter of 250 residents and 50 staff over 30 days under different infection control strategies, including daily symptom-based screening, twice-weekly PCR testing, and universal mask wearing. RESULTS: The proportion of PCR-positive residents and staff at the shelters with observed outbreaks ranged from 2.6 to 51.6%, which translated to the basic reproduction number (R0) estimates of 2.9-6.2. With moderate community incidence (~ 30 confirmed cases/1,000,000 people/day), the estimated probabilities of averting an outbreak in a low-risk (R0 = 1.5), moderate-risk (R0 = 2.9), and high-risk (R0 = 6.2) shelter were respectively 0.35, 0.13, and 0.04 for daily symptom-based screening; 0.53, 0.20, and 0.09 for twice-weekly PCR testing; 0.62, 0.27, and 0.08 for universal masking; and 0.74, 0.42, and 0.19 for these strategies in combination. The probability of averting an outbreak diminished with higher transmissibility (R0) within the simulated shelter and increasing incidence in the local community. CONCLUSIONS: In high-risk homeless shelter environments and locations with high community incidence of COVID-19, even intensive infection control strategies (incorporating daily symptom screening, frequent PCR testing, and universal mask wearing) are unlikely to prevent outbreaks, suggesting a need for non-congregate housing arrangements for people experiencing homelessness. In lower-risk environments, combined interventions should be employed to reduce outbreak risk.

Within-household clustering of genetically related Plasmodium falciparum infections in a moderate transmission area of Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Evaluation of genetic relatedness of malaria parasites is a useful tool for understanding transmission patterns, but patterns are not easily detectable in areas with moderate to high malaria transmission. To evaluate the feasibility of detecting genetic relatedness in a moderate malaria transmission setting, relatedness of Plasmodium falciparum infections was measured in cohort participants from randomly selected households in the Kihihi sub-county of Uganda (annual entomological inoculation rate of 27 infectious bites per person). METHODS: All infections detected via microscopy or Plasmodium-specific loop mediated isothermal amplification from passive and active case detection during August 2011-March 2012 were genotyped at 26 microsatellite loci, providing data for 349 samples from 230 participants living in 80 households. Pairwise genetic relatedness was calculated using identity by state (IBS). RESULTS: As expected, genetic diversity was high (mean heterozygosity [He] = 0.73), and the majority (76.5 %) of samples were polyclonal. Despite the high genetic diversity, fine-scale population structure was detectable, with significant spatiotemporal clustering of highly related infections. Although the difference in malaria incidence between households at higher (mean 1127 metres) versus lower elevation (mean 1015 metres) was modest (1.4 malaria cases per person-year vs. 1.9 per person-year, respectively), there was a significant difference in multiplicity of infection (2.2 vs. 2.6, p = 0.008) and, more strikingly, a higher proportion of highly related infections within households (6.3 % vs. 0.9 %, p = 0.0005) at higher elevation compared to lower elevation. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic data from a relatively small number of diverse, multiallelic loci reflected fine scale patterns of malaria transmission. Given the increasing interest in applying genetic data to augment malaria surveillance, this study provides evidence that genetic data can be used to inform transmission patterns at local spatial scales even in moderate transmission areas.

Dynamics and determinants of the force of infection of dengue virus from 1994 to 2015 in Managua, Nicaragua.

Dengue virus (DENV) is the most prevalent human vector-borne viral disease. The force of infection (FoI), the rate at which susceptible individuals are infected in a population, is an important metric for infectious disease modeling. Understanding how and why the FoI of DENV changes over time is critical for developing immunization and vector control policies. We used age-stratified seroprevalence data from 12 years of the Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study in Nicaragua to estimate the annual FoI of DENV from 1994 to 2015. Seroprevalence data revealed a change in the rate at which children acquire DENV-specific immunity: in 2004, 50% of children age >4 years were seropositive, but by 2015, 50% seropositivity was reached only by age 11 years. We estimated a spike in the FoI in 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 and a gradual decline thereafter, and children age <4 years experienced a lower FoI. Two hypotheses to explain the change in the FoI were tested: (i) a transition from introduction of specific DENV serotypes to their endemic transmission and (ii) a population demographic transition due to declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. We used mathematical models to simulate these hypotheses. We show that the initial high FoI can be explained by the introduction of DENV-3 in 1994-1998, and that the overall gradual decline in the FoI can be attributed to demographic shifts. Changes in immunity and demographics strongly impacted DENV transmission in Nicaragua. Population-level measures of transmission intensity are dynamic and thus challenging to use to guide vaccine implementation locally and globally.

Are Seroprevalence Estimates for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Biased?

Biased seroprevalence estimates can occur using serological assays optimized with validation sets unrepresentative of disease spectrum in the general population. Correct interpretation of serosurveys for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 requires quantifying variations in sensitivity with disease severity and over time.

The Impact of Multiple Rounds of Indoor Residual Spraying on Malaria Incidence and Hemoglobin Levels in a High-Transmission Setting.

BACKGROUND: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is widely used as a vector control measure, although there are conflicting findings of its effectiveness in reducing malaria incidence. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of multiple IRS rounds on malaria incidence and hemoglobin levels in a cohort of children in rural southeastern Uganda. METHODS: The study was based upon a dynamic cohort of children aged 0.5-10 years enrolled from August 2011 to June 2017 in Nagongera Subcounty. Confirmed malaria infections and hemoglobin levels were recorded over time for each participant. After each of 4 rounds of IRS, malaria incidence, hemoglobin levels, and parasite density were evaluated and compared with pre-IRS levels. Analyses were carried out at the participant level while accounting for repeated measures and clustering by household. RESULTS: Incidence rate ratios comparing post-IRS to pre-IRS incidence rates for age groups 0-3, 3-5, and 5-11 were 0.108 (95% confidence interval [CI], .078-.149), 0.173 (95% CI, .136-.222), and 0.226 (95% CI, .187-.274), respectively. The mean hemoglobin levels significantly increased from 11.01 (pre-IRS) to 12.18 g/dL (post-IRS). CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports the policy recommendation of IRS usage in a stable and perennial transmission area to rapidly reduce malaria transmission.

Estimating malaria incidence from routine health facility-based surveillance data in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Accurate measures of malaria incidence are essential to track progress and target high-risk populations. While health management information system (HMIS) data provide counts of malaria cases, quantifying the denominator for incidence using these data is challenging because catchment areas and care-seeking behaviours are not well defined. This study's aim was to estimate malaria incidence using HMIS data by adjusting the population denominator accounting for travel time to the health facility. METHODS: Outpatient data from two public health facilities in Uganda (Kihihi and Nagongera) over a 3-year period (2011-2014) were used to model the relationship between travel time from patient village of residence (available for each individual) to the facility and the relative probability of attendance using Poisson generalized additive models. Outputs from the model were used to generate a weighted population denominator for each health facility and estimate malaria incidence. Among children aged 6 months to 11 years, monthly HMIS-derived incidence estimates, with and without population denominators weighted by probability of attendance, were compared with gold standard measures of malaria incidence measured in prospective cohorts. RESULTS: A total of 48,898 outpatient visits were recorded across the two sites over the study period. HMIS incidence correlated with cohort incidence over time at both study sites (correlation in Kihihi = 0.64, p < 0.001; correlation in Nagongera = 0.34, p = 0.045). HMIS incidence measures with denominators unweighted by probability of attendance underestimated cohort incidence aggregated over the 3 years in Kihihi (0.5 cases per person-year (PPY) vs 1.7 cases PPY) and Nagongera (0.3 cases PPY vs 3.0 cases PPY). HMIS incidence measures with denominators weighted by probability of attendance were closer to cohort incidence, but remained underestimates (1.1 cases PPY in Kihihi and 1.4 cases PPY in Nagongera). CONCLUSIONS: Although malaria incidence measured using HMIS underestimated incidence measured in cohorts, even when adjusting for probability of attendance, HMIS surveillance data are a promising and scalable source for tracking relative changes in malaria incidence over time, particularly when the population denominator can be estimated by incorporating information on village of residence.

Rapid shifts in the age-specific burden of malaria following successful control interventions in four regions of Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Malaria control using long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) has been associated with reduced transmission throughout Africa. However, the impact of transmission reduction on the age distribution of malaria cases remains unclear. METHODS: Over a 10-year period (January 2009 to July 2018), outpatient surveillance data from four health facilities in Uganda were used to estimate the impact of control interventions on temporal changes in the age distribution of malaria cases using multinomial regression. Interventions included mass distribution of LLINs at all sites and IRS at two sites. RESULTS: Overall, 896,550 patient visits were included in the study; 211,632 aged < 5 years, 171,166 aged 5-15 years and 513,752 > 15 years. Over time, the age distribution of patients not suspected of malaria and those malaria negative either declined or remained the same across all sites. In contrast, the age distribution of suspected and confirmed malaria cases increased across all four sites. In the two LLINs-only sites, the proportion of malaria cases in < 5 years decreased from 31 to 16% and 35 to 25%, respectively. In the two sites receiving LLINs plus IRS, these proportions decreased from 58 to 30% and 64 to 47%, respectively. Similarly, in the LLINs-only sites, the proportion of malaria cases > 15 years increased from 40 to 61% and 29 to 39%, respectively. In the sites receiving LLINs plus IRS, these proportions increased from 19 to 44% and 18 to 31%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate a shift in the burden of malaria from younger to older individuals following implementation of successful control interventions, which has important implications for malaria prevention, surveillance, case management and control strategies.

Associations between red blood cell variants and malaria among children and adults from three areas of Uganda: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Multiple red blood cell (RBC) variants appear to offer protection against the most severe forms of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Associations between these variants and uncomplicated malaria are less clear. METHODS: Data from a longitudinal cohort study conducted in 3 sub-counties in Uganda was used to quantify associations between three red blood cell variants Hb [AA, AS, S (rs334)], alpha thalassaemia 3.7 kb deletion, and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency A-(G6PD 202A genotype) and malaria incidence, parasite prevalence, parasite density (a measure of anti-parasite immunity) and body temperature adjusted for parasite density (a measure of anti-disease immunity). All analyses were adjusted for age, average household entomological inoculation rate, and study site. Results for all variants were compared to those for wild type genotypes. RESULTS: In children, HbAS was associated, compared to wild type, with a lower incidence of malaria (IRR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.66-0.92, p = 0.003), lower parasite density upon infection (PR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.51-0.85, p = 0.001), and lower body temperature for any given parasite density (- 0.13 â„ƒ, 95% CI - 0.21, - 0.05, p = 0.002). In children, HbSS was associated with a lower incidence of malaria (IRR = 0.17, 95% CI 0.04-0.71, p = 0.02) and lower parasite density upon infection (PR = 0.31, 95% CI 0.18-0.54, p < 0.001). α-/αα thalassaemia, was associated with higher parasite prevalence in both children and adults (RR = 1.23, 95% CI 1.06-1.43, p = 0.008 and RR = 1.52, 95% CI 1.04-2.23, p = 0.03, respectively). G6PD deficiency was associated with lower body temperature for any given parasite density only among male hemizygote children (- 0.19 â„ƒ, 95% CI - 0.31, - 0.06, p = 0.003). CONCLUSION: RBC variants were associated with non-severe malaria outcomes. Elucidation of the mechanisms by which they confer protection will improve understanding of genetic protection against malaria.

Impact of Microscopic and Submicroscopic Parasitemia During Pregnancy on Placental Malaria in a High-Transmission Setting in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Placental malaria is a major cause of adverse birth outcomes. However, data are limited on the relationships between longitudinal measures of parasitemia during pregnancy and placental malaria. METHODS: Data came from 637 women enrolled in a randomized controlled trial of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy (IPTp) from Uganda. Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia was assessed using microscopy and ultrasensitive quantitative PCR at intervals of 28 days from 12 to 20 weeks gestation through delivery. Multivariate analysis was used to measure associations between characteristics of parasitemia during pregnancy and the risk of placental malaria based on histopathology. RESULTS: Overall risk of placental malaria was 44.6%. None of the 34 women without parasitemia detected during pregnancy had evidence of placental malaria. Increasing proportion of interval assessments with parasitemia and higher parasite densities were independently associated with an increased risk of placental malaria. Higher gravidity and more effective IPTp were associated with a decreased risk of placental malaria. Women with parasitemia only detected before the third trimester still had an increased risk of placental malaria. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency, density, and timing of parasitemia are all important risk factors for placental malaria. Interventions should target the prevention of all levels of parasitemia throughout pregnancy.

Persistent Parasitemia Despite Dramatic Reduction in Malaria Incidence After 3 Rounds of Indoor Residual Spraying in Tororo, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) has been associated with reductions in the incidence of malaria, but its impact on malaria parasitemia is unclear. METHODS: We followed 469 participants from August 2011 to May 2016 in Tororo, Uganda, a historically high malaria transmission setting. Three rounds of IRS with bendiocarb were implemented from December 2014 to December 2015. Symptomatic malaria episodes were identified by passive surveillance. Parasitemia was identified by active surveillance every 1-3 months using microscopy and Plasmodium falciparum-specific loop-mediated isothermal amplification. RESULTS: IRS was associated with a significant decline in the incidence of symptomatic malaria irrespective of age (episodes per person per year declined from 3.98 to 0.13 in children aged <5 years, 2.30 to 0.15 in children aged 5-10 years, and 0.41 to 0 in adults; P < .001 for all). IRS significantly reduced the prevalence of parasitemia, but the prevalence remained high (pre-IRS to post-third round: 58.5% to 11.3% in children aged <5 years, 73.3% to 23.7% in children aged 5-10 years, and 52.2% to 15.4% in adults; P < .001 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Although IRS was associated with significant reductions in the incidence of malaria and prevalence of parasitemia, a proportion of the population remained parasitemic, providing a potential reservoir for malaria transmission.

Dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine for intermittent preventive treatment of malaria during pregnancy and risk of malaria in early childhood: A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy (IPTp) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (IPTp-DP) has been shown to reduce the burden of malaria during pregnancy compared to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (IPTp-SP). However, limited data exist on how IPTp regimens impact malaria risk during infancy. We conducted a double-blinded randomized controlled trial (RCT) to test the hypothesis that children born to mothers given IPTp-DP would have a lower incidence of malaria during infancy compared to children born to mothers who received IPTp-SP. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compared malaria metrics among children in Tororo, Uganda, born to women randomized to IPTp-SP given every 8 weeks (SP8w, n = 100), IPTp-DP every 8 weeks (DP8w, n = 44), or IPTp-DP every 4 weeks (DP4w, n = 47). After birth, children were given chemoprevention with DP every 12 weeks from 8 weeks to 2 years of age. The primary outcome was incidence of malaria during the first 2 years of life. Secondary outcomes included time to malaria from birth and time to parasitemia following each dose of DP given during infancy. Results are reported after adjustment for clustering (twin gestation) and potential confounders (maternal age, gravidity, and maternal parasitemia status at enrolment).The study took place between June 2014 and May 2017. Compared to children whose mothers were randomized to IPTp-SP8w (0.24 episodes per person year [PPY]), the incidence of malaria was higher in children born to mothers who received IPTp-DP4w (0.42 episodes PPY, adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 1.92; 95% CI 1.00-3.65, p = 0.049) and nonsignificantly higher in children born to mothers who received IPT-DP8w (0.30 episodes PPY, aIRR 1.44; 95% CI 0.68-3.05, p = 0.34). However, these associations were modified by infant sex. Female children whose mothers were randomized to IPTp-DP4w had an apparently 4-fold higher incidence of malaria compared to female children whose mothers were randomized to IPTp-SP8w (0.65 versus 0.20 episodes PPY, aIRR 4.39, 95% CI 1.87-10.3, p = 0.001), but no significant association was observed in male children (0.20 versus 0.28 episodes PPY, aIRR 0.66, 95% CI 0.25-1.75, p = 0.42). Nonsignificant increases in malaria incidence were observed among female, but not male, children born to mothers who received DP8w versus SP8w. In exploratory analyses, levels of malaria-specific antibodies in cord blood were similar between IPTp groups and sex. However, female children whose mothers were randomized to IPTp-DP4w had lower mean piperaquine (PQ) levels during infancy compared to female children whose mothers received IPTp-SP8w (coef 0.81, 95% CI 0.65-1.00, p = 0.048) and male children whose mothers received IPTp-DP4w (coef 0.72, 95% CI 0.57-0.91, p = 0.006). There were no significant sex-specific differences in PQ levels among children whose mothers were randomized to IPTp-SP8w or IPTp-DP8w. The main limitations were small sample size and childhood provision of DP every 12 weeks in infancy. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to our hypothesis, preventing malaria in pregnancy with IPTp-DP in the context of chemoprevention with DP during infancy does not lead to a reduced incidence of malaria in childhood; in this setting, it may be associated with an increased incidence of malaria in females. Future studies are needed to better understand the biological mechanisms of in utero drug exposure on drug metabolism and how this may affect the dosing of antimalarial drugs for treatment and prevention during infancy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT02163447.