Protection efforts have resulted in ~10% of existing fish biomass on coral reefs.

The amount of ocean protected from fishing and other human impacts has often been used as a metric of conservation progress. However, protection efforts have highly variable outcomes that depend on local conditions, which makes it difficult to quantify what coral reef protection efforts to date have actually achieved at a global scale. Here, we develop a predictive model of how local conditions influence conservation outcomes on ~2,600 coral reef sites across 44 ecoregions, which we used to quantify how much more fish biomass there is on coral reefs compared to a modeled scenario with no protection. Under the assumptions of our model, our study reveals that without existing protection efforts there would be ~10% less fish biomass on coral reefs. Thus, we estimate that coral reef protection efforts have led to approximately 1 in every 10 kg of existing fish biomass.

Harnessing island-ocean connections to maximize marine benefits of island conservation.

Islands support unique plants, animals, and human societies found nowhere else on the Earth. Local and global stressors threaten the persistence of island ecosystems, with invasive species being among the most damaging, yet solvable, stressors. While the threat of invasive terrestrial mammals on island flora and fauna is well recognized, recent studies have begun to illustrate their extended and destructive impacts on adjacent marine environments. Eradication of invasive mammals and restoration of native biota are promising tools to address both island and ocean management goals. The magnitude of the marine benefits of island restoration, however, is unlikely to be consistent across the globe. We propose a list of six environmental characteristics most likely to affect the strength of land-sea linkages: precipitation, elevation, vegetation cover, soil hydrology, oceanographic productivity, and wave energy. Global databases allow for the calculation of comparable metrics describing each environmental character across islands. Such metrics can be used today to evaluate relative potential for coupled land-sea conservation efforts and, with sustained investment in monitoring on land and sea, can be used in the future to refine science-based planning tools for integrated land-sea management. As conservation practitioners work to address the effects of climate change, ocean stressors, and biodiversity crises, it is essential that we maximize returns from our management investments. Linking efforts on land, including eradication of island invasive mammals, with marine restoration and protection should offer multiplied benefits to achieve concurrent global conservation goals.

Closing the gap between existing large-area imaging research and marine conservation needs.

Emerging technology has immense potential to increase the scale and efficiency of marine conservation. One such technology is large-area imaging (LAI), which relies on structure-from-motion photogrammetry to create composite products, including 3-dimensional (3-D) environmental models, that are larger in spatial extent than the individual images used to create them. Use of LAI has become widespread in certain fields of marine science, primarily to measure the 3D structure of benthic ecosystems and track change over time. However, the use of LAI in the field of marine conservation appears limited. We conducted a review of the coral reef literature on the use of LAI to identify research themes and regional trends in applications of this technology. We also surveyed 135 coral reef scientists and conservation practitioners to determine community familiarity with LAI, evaluate barriers practitioners face in using LAI, and identify applications of LAI believed to be most exciting or relevant to coral conservation. Adoption of LAI was limited primarily to researchers at institutions based in advanced economies and was applied infrequently to conservation, although conservation practitioners and survey respondents from emerging economies indicated they expect to use LAI in the future. Our results revealed disconnect between current LAI research topics and conservation priorities identified by practitioners, highlighting the need for more diverse, conservation-relevant research using LAI. We provide recommendations for how early adopters of LAI (typically Global North scientists from well-resourced institutions) can facilitate access to this conservation technology. These recommendations include developing training resources, creating partnerships for data storage and analysis, publishing standard operating procedures for LAI workflows, standardizing methods, developing tools for efficient data extraction from LAI products, and conducting conservation-relevant research using LAI.

Reducción de la brecha entre la investigación actual de imágenes de gran superficie y las necesidades de la conservación marina Resumen Las nuevas tecnologías tienen un enorme potencial para aumentar la escala y la eficiencia de la conservación marina. Una de ellas son las imágenes de gran superficie (IGS), que se basan en la fotogrametría de estructura a partir del movimiento para crear productos compuestos, incluidos modelos ambientales tridimensionales (3D), cuya extensión espacial es mayor que la de las imágenes individuales utilizadas para crearlos. El uso de las IGS se ha generalizado en determinados campos de las ciencias marinas, principalmente para medir la estructura tridimensional de los ecosistemas bentónicos y realizar un seguimiento de los cambios a lo largo del tiempo. Sin embargo, el uso de las IGS en el campo de la conservación marina parece limitado. Realizamos una revisión de la bibliografía sobre el uso de las IGS en los arrecifes de coral para identificar temas de investigación y tendencias regionales en las aplicaciones de esta tecnología. También encuestamos a 135 científicos de arrecifes de coral y profesionales de la conservación para determinar la familiaridad de la comunidad con las IGS, evaluar las barreras a las que se enfrentan los profesionales en el uso de las IGS e identificar sus aplicaciones consideradas como las más interesantes o relevantes para la conservación del coral. La adopción de las IGS se limitó principalmente a los investigadores de las instituciones con sede en las economías avanzadas y se aplicó con poca frecuencia a la conservación, aunque los profesionales de la conservación y los encuestados de las economías emergentes indicaron que esperan utilizar las IGS en el futuro. Nuestros resultados revelaron una desconexión entre los actuales temas de investigación de las IGS y las prioridades de conservación identificadas por los profesionales, lo que subraya la necesidad de una investigación más diversa y relevante para la conservación mediante el uso de las IGS.

Evidence of Biological Self-Organization in Spatial Patterns of a Common Tropical Alga.

AbstractTropical reef communities contain spatial patterns at multiple scales, observable from microscope and satellite alike. Many of the smaller-scale patterns are generated physiologically (e.g., skeletal structures of corals at <1-m scale), while some of the larger patterns have been attributed to scale-dependent feedbacks (e.g., spur and groove reefs at 10-100-m scales). In describing the spatial patterning of reef benthic communities at landscape levels, we uncovered unique spatial patterning among living marine algae. Populations of the calcifying green alga Halimeda were observed to form a consistent polygonal pattern at a characteristic scale of 3-4 m. The pattern showed no clear evidence of having been formed through biologically created shifts in hydrodynamical conditions or related mechanisms. In considering the specifics of Halimeda growth patterns, a model of self-organization involving separation and patterned extension is proposed, a mechanism revealed in some geological pattern formation. This observation reinforces the diversity of pathways by which striking spatial patterns can occur in ecosystems.

Life history mediates the association between parasite abundance and geographic features.

Although parasites are ubiquitous in marine ecosystems, predicting the abundance of parasites present within marine ecosystems has proven challenging due to the unknown effects of multiple interacting environmental gradients and stressors. Furthermore, parasites often are considered as a uniform group within ecosystems despite their significant diversity. We aim to determine the potential importance of multiple predictors of parasite abundance in coral reef ecosystems, including reef area, island area, human population density, chlorophyll-a, host diversity, coral cover, host abundance and island isolation. Using a model selection approach within a database of more than 1,200 individual fish hosts and their parasites from 11 islands within the Pacific Line Islands archipelago, we reveal that geographic gradients, including island area and island isolation, emerged as the best predictors of parasite abundance. Life history moderated the relationship; parasites with complex life cycles increased in abundance with increasing island isolation, while parasites with direct life cycles decreased with increasing isolation. Direct life cycle parasites increased in abundance with increasing island area, although complex life cycle parasite abundance was not associated with island area. This novel analysis of a unique dataset indicates that parasite abundance in marine systems cannot be predicted precisely without accounting for the independent and interactive effects of each parasite's life history and environmental conditions.

Post-settlement demographics of reef building corals suggest prolonged recruitment bottlenecks.

For many organisms, early life stages experience significantly higher rates of mortality relative to adults. However, tracking early life stage individuals through time in natural settings is difficult, limiting our understanding of the duration of these 'mortality bottlenecks', and the time required for survivorship to match that of adults. Here, we track a cohort of juvenile corals (1-5 cm maximum diameter) from 12 taxa at a remote atoll in the Central Pacific from 2013 to 2017 and describe patterns of annual survivorship. Of the 537 juveniles initially detected, 219 (41%) were alive 4 years later, 163 (30%) died via complete loss of live tissue from the skeleton, and the remaining 155 (29%) died via dislodgement. The differing mortality patterns suggest that habitat characteristics, as well as species-specific features, may influence early life stage survival. Across most taxa, survival fit a logistic model, reaching > 90% annual survival within 4 years. These data suggest that mortality bottlenecks characteristic of 'recruitment' extend up to 5 years after individuals can be visually detected. Ultimately, replenishment of adult coral populations via sexual reproduction is needed to maintain both coral cover and genetic diversity. This study provides key insights into the dynamics and time scales that characterize these critical early life stages.

Bright spots among the world's coral reefs.

Ongoing declines in the structure and function of the world's coral reefs require novel approaches to sustain these ecosystems and the millions of people who depend on them3. A presently unexplored approach that draws on theory and practice in human health and rural development is to systematically identify and learn from the 'outliers'­places where ecosystems are substantially better ('bright spots') or worse ('dark spots') than expected, given the environmental conditions and socioeconomic drivers they are exposed to. Here we compile data from more than 2,500 reefs worldwide and develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to generate expectations of how standing stocks of reef fish biomass are related to 18 socioeconomic drivers and environmental conditions. We identify 15 bright spots and 35 dark spots among our global survey of coral reefs, defined as sites that have biomass levels more than two standard deviations from expectations. Importantly, bright spots are not simply comprised of remote areas with low fishing pressure; they include localities where human populations and use of ecosystem resources is high, potentially providing insights into how communities have successfully confronted strong drivers of change. Conversely, dark spots are not necessarily the sites with the lowest absolute biomass and even include some remote, uninhabited locations often considered near pristine6. We surveyed local experts about social, institutional, and environmental conditions at these sites to reveal that bright spots are characterized by strong sociocultural institutions such as customary taboos and marine tenure, high levels of local engagement in management, high dependence on marine resources, and beneficial environmental conditions such as deep-water refuges. Alternatively, dark spots are characterized by intensive capture and storage technology and a recent history of environmental shocks. Our results suggest that investments in strengthening fisheries governance, particularly aspects such as participation and property rights, could facilitate innovative conservation actions that help communities defy expectations of global reef degradation.

Brilliantia kiribatiensis, a new genus and species of Cladophorales (Chlorophyta) from the remote coral reefs of the Southern Line Islands, Pacific Ocean.

The marine green alga Brilliantia kiribatiensis gen. et sp. nov. is described from samples collected from the coral reefs of the Southern Line Islands, Republic of Kiribati, Pacific Ocean. Phylogenetic analysis of sequences of the large- and small-subunit rDNA and the rDNA internal transcribed spacer region revealed that Brilliantia is a member of the Boodleaceae (Cladophorales), containing the genera Apjohnia, Boodlea, Cladophoropsis, Chamaedoris, Phyllodictyon, and Struvea. Within this clade it formed a distinct lineage, sister to Struvea elegans, but more distantly related to the bona fide Struvea species (including the type S. plumosa). Brilliantia differs from the other genera by having a very simple architecture forming upright, unbranched, single-celled filaments attached to the substratum by a rhizoidal mat. Cell division occurs by segregative cell division only at the onset of reproduction. Based on current sample collection, B. kiribatiensis seems to be largely restricted to the Southern Line Islands, although it was also observed on neighboring islands, including Orona Atoll in the Phoenix Islands of Kiribati, and the Rangiroa and Takapoto Atolls in the Tuamotus of French Polynesia. This discovery highlights the likeliness that there is still much biodiversity yet to be discovered from these remote and pristine reefs of the central Pacific.

Gravity of human impacts mediates coral reef conservation gains.

Coral reefs provide ecosystem goods and services for millions of people in the tropics, but reef conditions are declining worldwide. Effective solutions to the crisis facing coral reefs depend in part on understanding the context under which different types of conservation benefits can be maximized. Our global analysis of nearly 1,800 tropical reefs reveals how the intensity of human impacts in the surrounding seascape, measured as a function of human population size and accessibility to reefs ("gravity"), diminishes the effectiveness of marine reserves at sustaining reef fish biomass and the presence of top predators, even where compliance with reserve rules is high. Critically, fish biomass in high-compliance marine reserves located where human impacts were intensive tended to be less than a quarter that of reserves where human impacts were low. Similarly, the probability of encountering top predators on reefs with high human impacts was close to zero, even in high-compliance marine reserves. However, we find that the relative difference between openly fished sites and reserves (what we refer to as conservation gains) are highest for fish biomass (excluding predators) where human impacts are moderate and for top predators where human impacts are low. Our results illustrate critical ecological trade-offs in meeting key conservation objectives: reserves placed where there are moderate-to-high human impacts can provide substantial conservation gains for fish biomass, yet they are unlikely to support key ecosystem functions like higher-order predation, which is more prevalent in reserve locations with low human impacts.

Foraging consistency of coral reef fishes across environmental gradients in the central Pacific.

We take advantage of a natural gradient of human exploitation and oceanic primary production across five central Pacific coral reefs to examine foraging patterns in common coral reef fishes. Using stomach content and stable isotope (δ15N and δ13C) analyses, we examined consistency across islands in estimated foraging patterns. Surprisingly, species within the piscivore-invertivore group exhibited the clearest pattern of foraging consistency across all five islands despite there being a considerable difference in mean body mass (14 g-1.4 kg) and prey size (0.03-3.8 g). In contrast, the diets and isotopic values of the grazer-detritivores varied considerably and exhibited no consistent patterns across islands. When examining foraging patterns across environmental contexts, we found that δ15N values of species of piscivore-invertivore and planktivore closely tracked gradients in oceanic primary production; again, no comparable patterns existed for the grazer-detritivores. The inter-island consistency in foraging patterns within the species of piscivore-invertivore and planktivore and the lack of consistency among species of grazer-detritivores suggests a linkage to different sources of primary production among reef fish functional groups. Our findings suggest that piscivore-invertivores and planktivores are likely linked to well-mixed and isotopically constrained allochthonous oceanic primary production, while grazer-detritivores are likely linked to sources of benthic primary production and autochthonous recycling. Further, our findings suggest that species of piscivore-invertivore, independent of body size, converge toward consuming low trophic level prey, with a hypothesized result of reducing the number of steps between trophic levels and increasing the trophic efficiency at a community level.

On the prevalence and dynamics of inverted trophic pyramids and otherwise top-heavy communities.

Classically, biomass partitioning across trophic levels was thought to add up to a pyramidal distribution. Numerous exceptions have, however, been noted including complete pyramidal inversions. Elevated levels of biomass top-heaviness (i.e. high consumer/resource biomass ratios) have been reported from Arctic tundra communities to Brazilian phytotelmata, and in species assemblages as diverse as those dominated by sharks and ants. We highlight two major pathways for creating top-heaviness, via: (1) endogenous channels that enhance energy transfer across trophic boundaries within a community and (2) exogenous pathways that transfer energy into communities from across spatial and temporal boundaries. Consumer-resource models and allometric trophic network models combined with niche models reveal the nature of core mechanisms for promoting top-heaviness. Outputs from these models suggest that top-heavy communities can be stable, but they also reveal sources of instability. Humans are both increasing and decreasing top-heaviness in nature with ecological consequences. Current and future research on the drivers of top-heaviness can help elucidate fundamental mechanisms that shape the architecture of ecological communities and govern energy flux within and between communities. Questions emerging from the study of top-heaviness also usefully draw attention to the incompleteness and inconsistency by which ecologists often establish definitional boundaries for communities.

Community-wide scan identifies fish species associated with coral reef services across the Indo-Pacific.

Determining whether many functionally complementary species or only a subset of key species are necessary to maintain ecosystem functioning and services is a critical question in community ecology and biodiversity conservation. Identifying such key species remains challenging, especially in the tropics where many species co-occur and can potentially support the same or different processes. Here, we developed a new community-wide scan (CWS) approach, analogous to the genome-wide scan, to identify fish species that significantly contribute, beyond the socio-environmental and species richness effects, to the biomass and coral cover on Indo-Pacific reefs. We found that only a limited set of species (51 out of approx. 400, approx. 13%), belonging to various functional groups and evolutionary lineages, are strongly and positively associated with fish biomass and live coral cover. Many of these species have not previously been identified as functionally important, and thus may be involved in unknown, yet important, biological mechanisms that help sustain healthy and productive coral reefs. CWS has the potential to reveal species that are key to ecosystem functioning and services and to guide management strategies as well as new experiments to decipher underlying causal ecological processes.

Human impacts decouple a fundamental ecological relationship-The positive association between host diversity and parasite diversity.

Human impacts on ecosystems can decouple the fundamental ecological relationships that create patterns of diversity in free-living species. Despite the abundance, ubiquity, and ecological importance of parasites, it is unknown whether the same decoupling effects occur for parasitic species. We investigated the influence of fishing on the relationship between host diversity and parasite diversity for parasites of coral reef fishes on three fished and three unfished islands in the central equatorial Pacific. Fishing was associated with a shallowing of the positive host-diversity-parasite-diversity relationship. This occurred primarily through negative impacts of fishing on the presence of complex life-cycle parasites, which created a biologically impoverished parasite fauna of directly transmitted parasites resilient to changes in host biodiversity. Parasite diversity appears to be decoupled from host diversity by fishing impacts in this coral reef ecosystem, which suggests that such decoupling might also occur for parasites in other ecosystems affected by environmental change.

Local genomic adaptation of coral reef-associated microbiomes to gradients of natural variability and anthropogenic stressors.

Holobionts are species-specific associations between macro- and microorganisms. On coral reefs, the benthic coverage of coral and algal holobionts varies due to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Different benthic macroorganisms are predicted to have specific microbiomes. In contrast, local environmental factors are predicted to select for specific metabolic pathways in microbes. To reconcile these two predictions, we hypothesized that adaptation of microbiomes to local conditions is facilitated by the horizontal transfer of genes responsible for specific metabolic capabilities. To test this hypothesis, microbial metagenomes were sequenced from 22 coral reefs at 11 Line Islands in the central Pacific that together span a wide range of biogeochemical and anthropogenic influences. Consistent with our hypothesis, the percent cover of major benthic functional groups significantly correlated with particular microbial taxa. Reefs with higher coral cover had a coral microbiome with higher abundances of Alphaproteobacteria (such as Rhodobacterales and Sphingomonadales), whereas microbiomes of algae-dominated reefs had higher abundances of Gammaproteobacteria (such as Alteromonadales, Pseudomonadales, and Vibrionales), Betaproteobacteria, and Bacteriodetes. In contrast to taxa, geography was the strongest predictor of microbial community metabolism. Microbial communities on reefs with higher nutrient availability (e.g., equatorial upwelling zones) were enriched in genes involved in nutrient-related metabolisms (e.g., nitrate and nitrite ammonification, Ton/Tol transport, etc.). On reefs further from the equator, microbes had more genes encoding chlorophyll biosynthesis and photosystems I/II. These results support the hypothesis that core microbiomes are determined by holobiont macroorganisms, and that those core taxa adapt to local conditions by selecting for advantageous metabolic genes.

Re-evaluating the health of coral reef communities: baselines and evidence for human impacts across the central Pacific.

Numerous studies have documented declines in the abundance of reef-building corals over the last several decades and in some but not all cases, phase shifts to dominance by macroalgae have occurred. These assessments, however, often ignore the remainder of the benthos and thus provide limited information on the present-day structure and function of coral reef communities. Here, using an unprecedentedly large dataset collected within the last 10 years across 56 islands spanning five archipelagos in the central Pacific, we examine how benthic reef communities differ in the presence and absence of human populations. Using islands as replicates, we examine whether benthic community structure is associated with human habitation within and among archipelagos and across latitude. While there was no evidence for coral to macroalgal phase shifts across our dataset we did find that the majority of reefs on inhabited islands were dominated by fleshy non-reef-building organisms (turf algae, fleshy macroalgae and non-calcifying invertebrates). By contrast, benthic communities from uninhabited islands were more variable but in general supported more calcifiers and active reef builders (stony corals and crustose coralline algae). Our results suggest that cumulative human impacts across the central Pacific may be causing a reduction in the abundance of reef builders resulting in island scale phase shifts to dominance by fleshy organisms.

Metabolomics of reef benthic interactions reveals a bioactive lipid involved in coral defence.

Holobionts are assemblages of microbial symbionts and their macrobial host. As extant representatives of some of the oldest macro-organisms, corals and algae are important for understanding how holobionts develop and interact with one another. Using untargeted metabolomics, we show that non-self interactions altered the coral metabolome more than self-interactions (i.e. different or same genus, respectively). Platelet activating factor (PAF) and Lyso-PAF, central inflammatory modulators in mammals, were major lipid components of the coral holobionts. When corals were damaged during competitive interactions with algae, PAF increased along with expression of the gene encoding Lyso-PAF acetyltransferase; the protein responsible for converting Lyso-PAF to PAF. This shows that self and non-self recognition among some of the oldest extant holobionts involve bioactive lipids identical to those in highly derived taxa like humans. This further strengthens the hypothesis that major players of the immune response evolved during the pre-Cambrian.

Productivity and fishing pressure drive variability in fish parasite assemblages of the Line Islands, equatorial Pacific.

Variability in primary productivity and fishing pressure can shape the abundance, species composition, and diversity of marine life. Though parasites comprise nearly half of marine species, their responses to these important forces remain little explored. We quantified parasite assemblages at two spatial scales, across a gradient in productivity and fishing pressure that spans six coral islands of the Line Islands archipelago and within the largest Line Island, Kiritimati, which experiences a west-to-east gradient in fishing pressure and upwelling-driven productivity. In the across-islands data set, we found that increasing productivity was correlated with increased parasite abundance overall, but that the effects of productivity differed among parasite groups. Trophically transmitted parasites increased in abundance with increasing productivity, but directly transmitted parasites did not exhibit significant changes. This probably arises because productivity has stronger effects on the abundance of the planktonic crustaceans and herbivorous snails that serve as the intermediate hosts of trophically transmitted parasites than on the higher-trophic level fishes that are the sole hosts of directly transmitted parasites. We also found that specialist parasites increased in response to increasing productivity, while generalists did not, possibly because specialist parasites tend to be more strongly limited by host availability than are generalist parasites. After the effect of productivity was controlled for, fishing was correlated with decreases in the abundance of trophically transmitted parasites, while directly transmitted parasites appeared to track host density; we observed increases in the abundance of parasites using hosts that experienced fishing-driven compensatory increases in abundance. The within-island data set confirmed these patterns for the combined effects of productivity and fishing on parasite abundance, suggesting that our conclusions are robust across a span of spatial scales. Overall, these results indicate that there are strong and variable effects of anthropogenic and natural drivers on parasite abundance and taxonomic richness. These effects are likely to be mediated by parasite traits, particularly by parasite transmission strategies.

Fishing drives declines in fish parasite diversity and has variable effects on parasite abundance.

Despite the ubiquity and ecological importance of parasites, relatively few studies have assessed their response to anthropogenic environmental change. Heuristic models have predicted both increases and decreases in parasite abundance in response to human disturbance, with empirical support for both. However, most studies focus on one or a few selected parasite species. Here, we assess the abundance of parasites of seven species of coral reef fishes collected from three fished and three unfished islands of the Line Islands archipelago in the central equatorial Pacific. Because we chose fish hosts that spanned different trophic levels, taxonomic groups, and body sizes, we were able to compare parasite responses across a broad cross section of the total parasite community in the presence and absence of fishing, a major human impact on marine ecosystems. We found that overall parasite species richness was substantially depressed on fished islands, but that the response of parasite abundance varied among parasite taxa: directly transmitted parasites were significantly more abundant on fished than on unfished islands, while the reverse was true for trophically transmitted parasites. This probably arises because trophically transmitted parasites require multiple host species, some of which are the top predators most sensitive to fishing impacts. The increase in directly transmitted parasites appeared to be due to fishing-driven compensatory increases in the abundance of their hosts. Together, these results provide support for the predictions of both heuristic models, and indicate that the direction of fishing's impact on parasite abundance is mediated by parasite traits, notably parasite transmission strategies.

Global human footprint on the linkage between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in reef fishes.

Difficulties in scaling up theoretical and experimental results have raised controversy over the consequences of biodiversity loss for the functioning of natural ecosystems. Using a global survey of reef fish assemblages, we show that in contrast to previous theoretical and experimental studies, ecosystem functioning (as measured by standing biomass) scales in a non-saturating manner with biodiversity (as measured by species and functional richness) in this ecosystem. Our field study also shows a significant and negative interaction between human population density and biodiversity on ecosystem functioning (i.e., for the same human density there were larger reductions in standing biomass at more diverse reefs). Human effects were found to be related to fishing, coastal development, and land use stressors, and currently affect over 75% of the world's coral reefs. Our results indicate that the consequences of biodiversity loss in coral reefs have been considerably underestimated based on existing knowledge and that reef fish assemblages, particularly the most diverse, are greatly vulnerable to the expansion and intensity of anthropogenic stressors in coastal areas.

Why fishing magnifies fluctuations in fish abundance.

It is now clear that fished populations can fluctuate more than unharvested stocks. However, it is not clear why. Here we distinguish among three major competing mechanisms for this phenomenon, by using the 50-year California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) larval fish record. First, variable fishing pressure directly increases variability in exploited populations. Second, commercial fishing can decrease the average body size and age of a stock, causing the truncated population to track environmental fluctuations directly. Third, age-truncated or juvenescent populations have increasingly unstable population dynamics because of changing demographic parameters such as intrinsic growth rates. We find no evidence for the first hypothesis, limited evidence for the second and strong evidence for the third. Therefore, in California Current fisheries, increased temporal variability in the population does not arise from variable exploitation, nor does it reflect direct environmental tracking. More fundamentally, it arises from increased instability in dynamics. This finding has implications for resource management as an empirical example of how selective harvesting can alter the basic dynamics of exploited populations, and lead to unstable booms and busts that can precede systematic declines in stock levels.