What Is the Economic Benefit of Annual COVID-19 Vaccination From the Adult Individual Perspective?

BACKGROUND: With coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination no longer mandated by many businesses/organizations, it is now up to individuals to decide whether to get any new boosters/updated vaccines going forward. METHODS: We developed a Markov model representing the potential clinical/economic outcomes from an individual perspective in the United States of getting versus not getting an annual COVID-19 vaccine. RESULTS: For an 18-49 year old, getting vaccinated at its current price ($60) can save the individual on average $30-$603 if the individual is uninsured and $4-$437 if the individual has private insurance, as long as the starting vaccine efficacy against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is ≥50% and the weekly risk of getting infected is ≥0.2%, corresponding to an individual interacting with 9 other people in a day under Winter 2023-2024 Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant conditions with an average infection prevalence of 10%. For a 50-64 year old, these cost-savings increase to $111-$1278 and $119-$1706 for someone without and with insurance, respectively. The risk threshold increases to ≥0.4% (interacting with 19 people/day), when the individual has 13.4% preexisting protection against infection (eg, vaccinated 9 months earlier). CONCLUSIONS: There is both clinical and economic incentive for the individual to continue to get vaccinated against COVID-19 each year.

A Systems Map of the Challenges of Climate Communication.

Over the past sixty years, scientists have been warning about climate change and its impacts on human health, but evidence suggests that many may not be heeding these concerns. This raises the question of whether new communication approaches are needed to overcome the unique challenges of communicating what people can do to slow or reverse climate change. To better elucidate the challenges of communicating about the links between human activity, climate change and its effects, and identify potential solutions, we developed a systems map of the factors and processes involved based on systems mapping sessions with climate change and communication experts. The systems map revealed 27 communication challenges such as "Limited information on how individual actions contribute to collective human activity," "Limited information on how present activity leads to long-term effects," and "Difficult to represent and communicate complex relationships." The systems map also revealed several themes among the identified challenges that exist in communicating about climate change, including a lack of available data and integrated databases, climate change disciplines working in silos, a need for a lexicon that is easily understood by the public, and the need for new communication strategies to describe processes that take time to manifest.

The Need for Systems Approaches for Precision Communications in Public Health.

A major challenge in communicating health-related information is the involvement of multiple complex systems from the creation of the information to the sources and channels of dispersion to the information users themselves. To date, public health communications approaches have often not adequately accounted for the complexities of these systems to the degree necessary to have maximum impact. The virality of COVID-19 misinformation and disinformation has brought to light the need to consider these system complexities more extensively. Unaided, it is difficult for humans to see and fully understand complex systems. Luckily, there are a range of systems approaches and methods, such as systems mapping and systems modeling, that can help better elucidate complex systems. Using these methods to better characterize the various systems involved in communicating public health-related information can lead to the development of more tailored, precise, and proactive communications. Proceeding in an iterative manner to help design, implement, and adjust such communications strategies can increase impact and leave less opportunity for misinformation and disinformation to spread.

The potential epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of a universal coronavirus vaccine: a modelling study.

Background: With efforts underway to develop a universal coronavirus vaccine, otherwise known as a pan-coronavirus vaccine, this is the time to offer potential funders, researchers, and manufacturers guidance on the potential value of such a vaccine and how this value may change with differing vaccine and vaccination characteristics. Methods: Using a computational model representing the United States (U.S.) population, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the various clinical and economic outcomes of COVID-19 such as hospitalisations, deaths, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, productivity losses, direct medical costs, and total societal costs, we explored the impact of a universal vaccine under different circumstances. We developed and populated this model using data reported by the CDC as well as observational studies conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: A pan-coronavirus vaccine would be cost saving in the U.S. as a standalone intervention as long as its vaccine efficacy is ≥10% and vaccination coverage is ≥10%. Every 1% increase in efficacy between 10% and 50% could avert an additional 395,000 infections and save $1.0 billion in total societal costs ($45.3 million in productivity losses, $1.1 billion in direct medical costs). It would remain cost saving even when a strain-specific coronavirus vaccine would be subsequently available, as long as it takes at least 2-3 months to develop, test, and bring that more specific vaccine to the market. Interpretation: Our results provide support for the development and stockpiling of a pan-coronavirus vaccine and help delineate the vaccine characteristics to aim for in development of such a vaccine. Funding: The National Science Foundation, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, and the City University of New York.

Cost-effectiveness of severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing and isolation strategies in nursing homes.

OBJECTIVE: Nursing home residents may be particularly vulnerable to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Therefore, a question is when and how often nursing homes should test staff for COVID-19 and how this may change as severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolves. DESIGN: We developed an agent-based model representing a typical nursing home, COVID-19 spread, and its health and economic outcomes to determine the clinical and economic value of various screening and isolation strategies and how it may change under various circumstances. RESULTS: Under winter 2023-2024 SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant conditions, symptom-based antigen testing averted 4.5 COVID-19 cases compared to no testing, saving $191 in direct medical costs. Testing implementation costs far outweighed these savings, resulting in net costs of $990 from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services perspective, $1,545 from the third-party payer perspective, and $57,155 from the societal perspective. Testing did not return sufficient positive health effects to make it cost-effective [$50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold], but it exceeded this threshold in ≥59% of simulation trials. Testing remained cost-ineffective when routinely testing staff and varying face mask compliance, vaccine efficacy, and booster coverage. However, all antigen testing strategies became cost-effective (≤$31,906 per QALY) or cost saving (saving ≤$18,372) when the severe outcome risk was ≥3 times higher than that of current omicron variants. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 testing costs outweighed benefits under winter 2023-2024 conditions; however, testing became cost-effective with increasingly severe clinical outcomes. Cost-effectiveness can change as the epidemic evolves because it depends on clinical severity and other intervention use. Thus, nursing home administrators and policy makers should monitor and evaluate viral virulence and other interventions over time.

Modeling Nursing Home Harms From COVID-19 Staff Furlough Policies.

Importance: Current guidance to furlough health care staff with mild COVID-19 illness may prevent the spread of COVID-19 but may worsen nursing home staffing shortages as well as health outcomes that are unrelated to COVID-19. Objective: To compare COVID-19-related with non-COVID-19-related harms associated with allowing staff who are mildly ill with COVID-19 to work while masked. Design, Setting, and Participants: This modeling study, conducted from November 2023 to June 2024, used an agent-based model representing a 100-bed nursing home and its residents, staff, and their interactions; care tasks; and resident and staff health outcomes to simulate the impact of different COVID-19 furlough policies over 1 postpandemic year. Exposures: Simulating increasing proportions of staff who are mildly ill and are allowed to work while wearing N95 respirators under various vaccination coverage, SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and severity, and masking adherence. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were staff and resident COVID-19 cases, staff furlough days, missed care tasks, nursing home resident hospitalizations (related and unrelated to COVID-19), deaths, and costs. Results: In the absence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the study's 100-bed agent-based model, nursing home understaffing resulted in an annual mean (SD) 93.7 (0.7) missed care tasks daily (22.1%), 38.0 (7.6) resident hospitalizations (5.2%), 4.6 (2.2) deaths (0.6%), and 39.7 (19.8) quality-adjusted life years lost from non-COVID-19-related harms, costing $1 071 950 ($217 200) from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) perspective and $1 112 800 ($225 450) from the societal perspective. Under the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant conditions from 2023 to 2024, furloughing all staff who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 was associated with a mean (SD) 326.5 (69.1) annual furlough days and 649.5 (95% CI, 593.4-705.6) additional missed care tasks, resulting in 4.3 (95% CI, 2.9-5.9) non-COVID-19-related resident hospitalizations and 0.7 (95% CI, 0.2-1.1) deaths, costing an additional $247 090 (95% CI, $203 160-$291 020) from the CMS perspective and $405 250 (95% CI, $358 550-$451 950) from the societal perspective. Allowing 75% of staff who were mildly ill to work while masked was associated with 5 additional staff and 5 additional resident COVID-19 cases without added COVID-19-related hospitalizations but mitigated staffing shortages, with 475.9 additional care tasks being performed annually, 3.5 fewer non-COVID-19-related hospitalizations, and 0.4 fewer non-COVID-19-related deaths. Allowing staff who were mildly ill to work ultimately saved an annual mean $85 470 (95% CI, $41 210-$129 730) from the CMS perspective and $134 450 (95% CI, $86 370-$182 540) from the societal perspective. These results were robust to increased vaccination coverage, increased nursing home transmission, increased importation of COVID-19 from the community, and failure to mask while working ill. Conclusion and Relevance: In this modeling study of staff COVID-19 furlough policies, allowing nursing home staff to work with mild COVID-19 illness was associated with fewer resident harms from staffing shortages and missed care tasks than harms from increased COVID-19 transmission, ultimately saving substantial direct medical and societal costs.

Benefits of Meeting the Healthy People 2030 Youth Sports Participation Target.

INTRODUCTION: Healthy People 2030, a U.S. government health initiative, has indicated that increasing youth sports participation to 63.3% is a priority in the U.S. This study quantified the health and economic value of achieving this target. METHODS: An agent-based model developed in 2023 represents each person aged 6-17 years in the U.S. On each simulated day, agents can participate in sports that affect their metabolic and mental health in the model. Each agent can develop different physical and mental health outcomes, associated with direct and indirect costs. RESULTS: Increasing the proportion of youth participating in sports from the most recent participation levels (50.7%) to the Healthy People 2030 target (63.3%) could reduce overweight/obesity prevalence by 3.37% (95% CI=3.35%, 3.39%), resulting in 1.71 million fewer cases of overweight/obesity (95% CI=1.64, 1.77 million). This could avert 352,000 (95% CI=336,200, 367,500) cases of weight-related diseases and gain 1.86 million (95% CI=1.86, 1.87 million) quality-adjusted life years, saving $22.55 billion (95% CI=$22.46, $22.63 billion) in direct medical costs and $25.43 billion (95% CI= $25.25, $25.61 billion) in productivity losses. This would also reduce depression/anxiety symptoms, saving $3.61 billion (95% CI=$3.58, $3.63 billion) in direct medical costs and $28.38 billion (95% CI=$28.20, $28.56 billion) in productivity losses. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that achieving the Healthy People 2030 objective could save third-party payers, businesses, and society billions of dollars for each cohort of persons aged 6-17 years, savings that would continue to repeat with each new cohort. This suggests that even if a substantial amount is invested toward this objective, such investments could pay for themselves.

How the Timing of Annual COVID-19 Vaccination of Nursing Home Residents and Staff Affects Its Value.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of an annual nursing home (NH) COVID-19 vaccine campaign and the impact of when vaccination starts. DESIGN: Agent-based model representing a typical NH. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: NH residents and staff. METHODS: We used the model representing an NH with 100 residents, its staff, their interactions, COVID-19 spread, and its health and economic outcomes to evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of varying schedules of annual COVID-19 vaccine campaigns. RESULTS: Across a range of scenarios with a 60% vaccine efficacy that wanes starting 4 months after protection onset, vaccination was cost saving or cost-effective when initiated in the late summer or early fall. Annual vaccination averted 102 to 105 COVID-19 cases when 30-day vaccination campaigns began between July and October (varying with vaccination start), decreasing to 97 and 85 cases when starting in November and December, respectively. Starting vaccination between July and December saved $3340 to $4363 and $64,375 to $77,548 from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and societal perspectives, respectively (varying with vaccination start). Vaccination's value did not change when varying the COVID-19 peak between December and February. The ideal vaccine campaign timing was not affected by reducing COVID-19 levels in the community, or varying transmission probability, preexisting immunity, or COVID-19 severity. However, if vaccine efficacy wanes more quickly (over 1 month), earlier vaccination in July resulted in more cases compared with vaccinating later in October. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Annual vaccination of NH staff and residents averted the most cases when initiated in the late summer through early fall, at least 2 months before the COVID-19 winter peak but remained cost saving or cost-effective when it starts in the same month as the peak. This supports tethering COVID vaccination to seasonal influenza campaigns (typically in September-October) for providing protection against SARS-CoV-2 winter surges in NHs.

Health and Economic Value of Eliminating Socioeconomic Disparities in US Youth Physical Activity.

Importance: There are considerable socioeconomic status (SES) disparities in youth physical activity (PA) levels. For example, studies show that lower-SES youth are less active, have lower participation in organized sports and physical education classes, and have more limited access to PA equipment. Objective: To determine the potential public health and economic effects of eliminating disparities in PA levels among US youth SES groups. Design and Setting: An agent-based model representing all 6- to 17-year-old children in the US was used to simulate the epidemiological, clinical, and economic effects of disparities in PA levels among different SES groups and the effect of reducing these disparities. Main Outcomes and Measures: Anthropometric measures (eg, body mass index) and the presence and severity of risk factors associated with weight (stroke, coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes, or cancer), as well as direct and indirect cost savings. Results: This model, representing all 50 million US children and adolescents 6 to 17 years old, found that if the US eliminates the disparity in youth PA levels across SES groups, absolute overweight and obesity prevalence would decrease by 0.826% (95% CI, 0.821%-0.832%), resulting in approximately 383 000 (95% CI, 368 000-399 000) fewer cases of overweight and obesity and 101 000 (95% CI, 98 000-105 000) fewer cases of weight-related diseases (stroke and coronary heart disease events, type 2 diabetes, or cancer). This would result in more than $15.60 (95% CI, $15.01-$16.10) billion in cost savings over the youth cohort's lifetime. There are meaningful benefits even when reducing the disparity by just 25%, which would result in $1.85 (95% CI, $1.70-$2.00) billion in direct medical costs averted and $2.48 (95% CI, $2.04-$2.92) billion in productivity losses averted. For every 1% in disparity reduction, total productivity losses would decrease by about $83.8 million, and total direct medical costs would decrease by about $68.7 million. Conclusions and Relevance: This study quantified the potential savings from eliminating or reducing PA disparities, which can help policymakers, health care systems, schools, funders, sports organizations, and other businesses better prioritize investments toward addressing these disparities.

The potential epidemiologic, clinical, and economic impact of requiring schools to offer Physical Education (PE) classes in Mexico City.

BACKGROUND: Many schools have been cutting physical education (PE) classes due to budget constraints, which raises the question of whether policymakers should require schools to offer PE classes. Evidence suggests that PE classes can help address rising physical inactivity and obesity prevalence. However, it would be helpful to determine if requiring PE is cost-effective. METHODS: We developed an agent-based model of youth in Mexico City and the impact of all schools offering PE classes on changes in weight, weight-associated health conditions and the corresponding direct and indirect costs over their lifetime. RESULTS: If schools offer PE without meeting guidelines and instead followed currently observed class length and time active during class, overweight and obesity prevalence decreased by 1.3% (95% CI: 1.0%-1.6%) and was cost-effective from the third-party payer and societal perspectives ($5,058 per disability-adjusted life year [DALY] averted and $5,786/DALY averted, respectively, assuming PE cost $50.3 million). When all schools offered PE classes meeting international guidelines for PE classes, overweight and obesity prevalence decreased by 3.9% (95% CI: 3.7%-4.3%) in the cohort at the end of five years compared to no PE. Long-term, this averted 3,183 and 1,081 obesity-related health conditions and deaths, respectively and averted ≥$31.5 million in direct medical costs and ≥$39.7 million in societal costs, assuming PE classes cost ≤$50.3 million over the five-year period. PE classes could cost up to $185.5 million and $89.9 million over the course of five years and still remain cost-effective and cost saving respectively, from the societal perspective. CONCLUSION: Requiring PE in all schools could be cost-effective when PE class costs, on average, up to $10,340 per school annually. Further, the amount of time students are active during class is a driver of PE classes' value (e.g., it is cost saving when PE classes meet international guidelines) suggesting the need for specific recommendations.