Global threat to agriculture from invasive species.

Invasive species present significant threats to global agriculture, although how the magnitude and distribution of the threats vary between countries and regions remains unclear. Here, we present an analysis of almost 1,300 known invasive insect pests and pathogens, calculating the total potential cost of these species invading each of 124 countries of the world, as well as determining which countries present the greatest threat to the rest of the world given their trading partners and incumbent pool of invasive species. We find that countries vary in terms of potential threat from invasive species and also their role as potential sources, with apparently similar countries sometimes varying markedly depending on specifics of agricultural commodities and trade patterns. Overall, the biggest agricultural producers (China and the United States) could experience the greatest absolute cost from further species invasions. However, developing countries, in particular, Sub-Saharan African countries, appear most vulnerable in relative terms. Furthermore, China and the United States represent the greatest potential sources of invasive species for the rest of the world. The analysis reveals considerable scope for ongoing redistribution of known invasive pests and highlights the need for international cooperation to slow their spread.

Including a diverse set of voices to address biological invasions.

Inclusivity is fundamental to progress in understanding and addressing the global phenomena of biological invasions because inclusivity fosters a breadth of perspectives, knowledge, and solutions. Here, we report on how the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assessment on invasive alien species (IAS) prioritized inclusivity, the benefits of this approach, and the remaining challenges.

Curbing the major and growing threats from invasive alien species is urgent and achievable.

Although invasive alien species have long been recognized as a major threat to nature and people, until now there has been no comprehensive global review of the status, trends, drivers, impacts, management and governance challenges of biological invasions. The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and Their Control (hereafter 'IPBES invasive alien species assessment') drew on more than 13,000 scientific publications and reports in 15 languages as well as Indigenous and local knowledge on all taxa, ecosystems and regions across the globe. Therefore, it provides unequivocal evidence of the major and growing threat of invasive alien species alongside ambitious but realistic approaches to manage biological invasions. The extent of the threat and impacts has been recognized by the 143 member states of IPBES who approved the summary for policymakers of this assessment. Here, the authors of the IPBES assessment outline the main findings of the IPBES invasive alien species assessment and highlight the urgency to act now.

Optimal management strategies to control local population growth or population spread may not be the same.

The objective of most pest management programs is to "control" the pest species. However, optimal control of local abundance and population growth may require different management strategies than optimal control of spatial spread. We use coupled demographic-dispersal models to address the relative importance of different management approaches to these two main control objectives for the invasive thistle Carduus nutans. The models are parameterized with data from thistle populations in the native (France) and invaded ranges (Australia and New Zealand). We assess a wide range of commonly used management strategies for their absolute and relative impacts on population growth and spread in both invaded-range scenarios. The projected population growth rate in New Zealand is more than twice that in Australia, while the spread rate is more than four times the Australian value. In general, spread and growth are both most strongly affected by the same life cycle transitions; however, in a few cases certain vital rates disproportionately affect either spread or growth. The transition that represents the contribution of large rosettes in one year to the number of large rosettes in the following year (the large rosette-large rosette transition) in Australia is dominated by reproduction (rather than survival) and hence is relatively more important to spread than to population growth. In New Zealand, the small rosette-small rosette transition is also predominantly dispersal-related. However, establishment of small plants from the seed bank contributes more to population growth than spread, as no dispersal is involved. The fine-resolution vital-rate-based modeling approach allows us to identify potentially novel optimal management strategies: approaches that reduce microsite availability show promise for reducing both population growth and spread, while strategies that affect dispersal parameters will affect spread. Additionally, the relative ranking of some biocontrol agents shifts depending on whether control of population growth or population spread is the desired outcome and therefore could alter which of the agents are preferred for release in a new area. The possibility of differences in ranked agent effectiveness has been predicted theoretically, but never before demonstrated using field data.

Quantifying the social and economic benefits of the biological control of invasive alien plants in natural ecosystems.

Invasive alien plants reduce ecosystem service delivery, resulting in environmental, economic and social costs. Here we review the returns on investment from biological control of alien plants that invade natural ecosystems. Quantifying the economic benefits of biological control requires estimates of the reductions in ecosystem goods and services arising from invasion. It also requires post-release monitoring to assess whether biological control can restore them, and conversion of these estimates to monetary values, which has seldom been done. Past studies, mainly from Australia and South Africa, indicate that biological control delivers positive and substantial returns on investment, with benefit:cost ratios ranging from 8:1 to over 3000:1. Recent studies are rare, but they confirm that successful biological control delivers attractive returns on investment, which increase over time as the value of avoided impacts accumulates.

Gene technologies in weed management: a technical feasibility analysis.

With the advent of new genetic technologies such as gene silencing and gene drive, efforts to develop additional management tools for weed management is gaining significant momentum. These technologies promise novel ways to develop sustainable weed control options because gene silencing can switch-off genes mediating adaptation (e.g. growth, herbicide resistance), and gene drive can be used to spread modified traits and to engineer wild populations with reduced fitness. However, applying gene silencing and/or gene drive is expected to be inherently complex as their application is constrained by several methodological and technological difficulties. In this review we explore the challenges of these technologies, and discuss strategies and resources accessible to accelerate the development of gene-tech based tools for weed management. We also highlight how gene technologies can be integrated into existing management tactics such as classical biological control, and their possible interactions.

A model for plant invasions: the role of distributed generation times.

An analytical model consisting of adult plants and two types of seeds (unripe and mature) is considered and successfully tested using experimental data available for some invasive weeds (Echium plantagineum, Cytisus scoparius, Carduus nutans andCarduus acanthoides) from their native and exotic ranges. The model accounts for probability distribution functions (pdfs) for times of germination, growth, death and dispersal on two dimensions, so the general life-cycle of individuals is considered with high level of description. Our work provides for the first time, for a model containing all that life-cycle information, explicit relationship conditions for the invasive success and expressions for the speed of invasive fronts, which can be useful tools for invasions assessment. The expressions derived allow us to prove that the different phenotypes showed by the weeds in their native (exotic) ranges can explain their corresponding non-invasive (invasive) behavior.

Seed dormancy and delayed flowering in monocarpic plants: selective interactions in a stochastic environment.

We explore the effects of temporal variation in multiple demographic rates on the joint evolution of delayed reproduction and seed dormancy using integral projection models (IPMs). To do this, we extend the standard IPM to include a discrete state variable representing the number of seeds in the seed bank, density-dependent recruitment, and temporal variation in demography. Parameter estimates for Carlina vulgaris and Carduus nutans are obtained from long-term studies. Carlina is relatively long lived and has a short-lived seed bank, whereas most Carduus plants flower in their first year and the seed bank is long lived. Using the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) approach, we predict the observed flowering and germination strategies. There is excellent agreement between the predictions and the field observations. The effects of temporal variation on the joint ESS are partitioned into components arising from nonlinear averaging (systematic changes in the mean resulting from the interaction between variability and nonlinearity) and nonequilibrium dynamics (fluctuations in fitness caused by temporal variation). This shows that temporal variation can have substantial effects on the observed flowering and germination strategies and that covariance between demographic processes is important. We extend the models to include spatial population structure and assess the robustness of the results from the nonspatial models.