Medication Cost Concerns and Disparities in Patient-Reported Outcomes Among a Multiethnic Cohort of Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

OBJECTIVE: Concerns about the affordability of medications are common in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), but the relationship between medication cost concerns and health outcomes is poorly understood. We assessed the association of self-reported medication cost concerns and patient-reported outcomes (PROs) in a multiethnic SLE cohort. METHODS: The California Lupus Epidemiology Study is a cohort of individuals with physician-confirmed SLE. Medication cost concerns were defined as having difficulties affording SLE medications, skipping doses, delaying refills, requesting lower-cost alternatives, purchasing medications outside the United States, or applying for patient assistance programs. Linear regression and mixed effects models assessed the cross-sectional and longitudinal association of medication cost concerns and PROs, respectively, adjusting for age, sex, race and ethnicity, income, principal insurance, immunomodulatory medications, and organ damage. RESULTS: Of 334 participants, medication cost concerns were reported by 91 (27%). Medication cost concerns were associated with worse Systemic Lupus Activity Questionnaire (SLAQ; beta coefficient [ß] 5.9, 95% CI 4.3-7.6; P < 0.001), 8-item Patient Health Questionnaire depression scale (PHQ-8; ß 2.7, 95% CI 1.4-4.0; P < 0.001), and Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS; ß for physical function -4.6, 95% CI -6.7 to -2.4; P < 0.001) scores after adjusting for covariates. Medication cost concerns were not associated with significant changes in PROs over 2-year follow-up. CONCLUSION: More than a quarter of participants reported at least 1 medication cost concern, which was associated with worse PROs. Our results reveal a potentially modifiable risk factor for poor outcomes rooted in the unaffordability of SLE care.

Reconsidering the Utility of Race-Specific Lung Function Prediction Equations.

Rationale: African American individuals have worse outcomes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Objectives: To assess whether race-specific approaches for estimating lung function contribute to racial inequities by failing to recognize pathological decrements and considering them normal. Methods: In a cohort with and at risk for COPD, we assessed whether lung function prediction equations applied in a race-specific versus universal manner better modeled the relationship between FEV1, FVC, and other COPD outcomes, including the COPD Assessment Test, St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire, computed tomography percent emphysema, airway wall thickness, and 6-minute-walk test. We related these outcomes to differences in FEV1 using multiple linear regression and compared predictive performance between fitted models using root mean squared error and Alpaydin's paired F test. Measurements and Main Results: Using race-specific equations, African American individuals were calculated to have better lung function than non-Hispanic White individuals (FEV1, 76.8% vs. 71.8% predicted; P = 0.02). Using universally applied equations, African American individuals were calculated to have worse lung function. Using Hankinson's Non-Hispanic White equation, FEV1 was 64.7% versus 71.8% (P < 0.001). Using the Global Lung Initiative's Other race equation, FEV1 was 70.0% versus 77.9% (P < 0.001). Prediction errors from linear regression were less for universally applied equations compared with race-specific equations when examining FEV1% predicted with the COPD Assessment Test (P < 0.01), St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (P < 0.01), and airway wall thickness (P < 0.01). Although African American participants had greater adversity (P < 0.001), less adversity was only associated with better FEV1 in non-Hispanic White participants (P for interaction = 0.041). Conclusions: Race-specific equations may underestimate COPD severity in African American individuals.Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01969344).

A quasi-experimental study estimating the impact of long-lasting insecticidal nets with and without piperonyl butoxide on pregnancy outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are the main vector control tool for pregnant women, but their efficacy may be compromised, in part, due to pyrethroid resistance. In 2017, the Ugandan Ministry of Health embedded a cluster randomized controlled trial into the national LLIN campaign, where a random subset of health subdistricts (HSDs) received LLINs treated with piperonyl butoxide (PBO), a chemical synergist known to partially restore pyrethroid sensitivity. Using data from a small, non-randomly selected subset of HSDs, this secondary analysis used quasi-experimental methods to quantify the overall impact of the LLIN campaign on pregnancy outcomes. In an exploratory analysis, differences between PBO and conventional (non-PBO) LLINs on pregnancy outcomes were assessed. METHODS: Birth registry data (n = 39,085) were retrospectively collected from 21 health facilities across 12 HSDs, 29 months before and 9 months after the LLIN campaign (from 2015 to 2018). Of the 12 HSDs, six received conventional LLINs, five received PBO LLINs, and one received a mix of conventional and PBO LLINs. Interrupted time-series analyses (ITSAs) were used to estimate changes in monthly incidence of stillbirth and low birthweight (LBW; <2500 g) before-and-after the campaign. Poisson regression with robust standard errors modeled campaign effects, adjusting for health facility-level differences, seasonal variation, and time-varying maternal characteristics. Comparisons between PBO and conventional LLINs were estimated using difference-in-differences estimators. RESULTS: ITSAs estimated the campaign was associated with a 26% [95% CI: 7-41] reduction in stillbirth incidence (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.74 [0.59-0.93]) and a 15% [-7, 33] reduction in LBW incidence (IRR=0.85 [0.67-1.07]) over a 9-month period. The effect on stillbirth incidence was greatest for women delivering 7-9 months after the campaign (IRR=0.60 [0.41-0.87]) for whom the LLINs would have covered most of their pregnancy. The IRRs estimated from difference-in-differences analyses comparing PBO to conventional LLINs was 0.78 [95% CI: 0.52, 1.16] for stillbirth incidence and 1.15 [95% CI: 0.87, 1.52] for LBW incidence. CONCLUSIONS: In this region of Uganda, where pyrethroid resistance is high, this study found that a mass LLIN campaign was associated with reduced stillbirth incidence. Effects of the campaign were greatest for women who would have received LLINs early in pregnancy, suggesting malaria protection early in pregnancy can have important benefits that are not necessarily realized through antenatal malaria services. Results from the exploratory analyses comparing PBO and conventional LLINs on pregnancy outcomes were inconclusive, largely due to the wide confidence intervals that crossed the null. Thus, future studies with larger sample sizes are needed.

Examining socioeconomic status disparities in facility-based childbirth in Kenya: role of perceived need, accessibility, and quality of care.

BACKGROUND: Giving birth in health facilities with skilled birth attendants (SBAs) is one of the key efforts promoted to reduce preventable maternal deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. However, research has revealed large socioeconomic status (SES) disparities in facility-based childbirth. We seek to extend the literature on the factors underlying these SES disparities. Drawing on the Disparities in Skilled Birth Attendance (DiSBA) framework, we examined the contribution of three proximal factors-perceived need, accessibility, and quality of care-that influence the use of SBAs. METHODS: We used data from a survey conducted in Migori County, Kenya in 2016, among women aged 15-49 years who gave birth nine weeks before the survey (N = 1020). The primary outcome is facility-based childbirth. The primary predictors are wealth, measured in quintiles calculated from a wealth index based on principal component analysis of household assets, and highest education level attained. Proposed mediating variables include maternal perceptions of need, accessibility (physical and financial), and quality of care (antenatal services received and experience of care). Logistic regression with mediation analysis was used to investigate the mediating effects. RESULTS: Overall, 85% of women in the sample gave birth in a health facility. Women in the highest wealth quintile were more likely to give birth in a facility than women in the lowest quintile, controlling for demographic factors (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.97, 95% CI: 1.69-5.22). College-educated women were five times more likely than women with no formal education or primary education to give birth in a health facility (aOR: 4.96; 95% CI: 1.43-17.3). Women who gave birth in health facilities had higher perceived accessibility and quality of care than those who gave birth at home. The five mediators were estimated to account for between 15% and 48% of the differences in facility births between women in the lowest and higher wealth quintiles. CONCLUSION: Our results confirm SES disparities in facility-based childbirth, with the proximal factors accounting for some of these differences. These proximal factors - particularly perceived accessibility and quality of care - warrant attention due to their relationship with facility-birth overall, and their impact on inequities in this care.

Predicting Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease for Adults Using Practical Clinical Measures: Evidence from the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Many adults have risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Screening all adults with risk factors for NAFLD using imaging is not feasible. OBJECTIVE: To develop a practical scoring tool for predicting NAFLD using participant demographics, medical history, anthropometrics, and lab values. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. PARTICIPANTS: Data came from 6194 white, African American, Hispanic, and Chinese American participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort, ages 45-85 years. MAIN MEASURES: NAFLD was identified by liver computed tomography (≤ 40 Hounsfield units indicating > 30% hepatic steatosis) and data on 14 predictors was assessed for predicting NAFLD. Random forest variable importance was used to identify the minimum subset of variables required to achieve the highest predictive power. This subset was used to derive (n = 4132) and validate (n = 2063) a logistic regression-based score (NAFLD-MESA Index). A second NAFLD-Clinical Index excluding laboratory predictors was also developed. KEY RESULTS: NAFLD prevalence was 6.2%. The model included eight predictors: age, sex, race/ethnicity, type 2 diabetes, smoking history, body mass index, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), and triglycerides (TG). The NAFLD-Clinical Index model excluded GGT and TG. In the NAFLD-MESA model, the derivation set achieved an AUCNAFLD-MESA = 0.83 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.86), and the validation set an AUCNAFLD-MESA = 0.80 (0.77 to 0.84). The NAFLD-Clinical Index model was AUCClinical = 0.78 [0.75 to 0.81] in the derivation set and AUCClinical = 0.76 [0.72 to 0.80] in the validation set (pBonferroni-adjusted < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The two models are simple but highly predictive tools that can aid clinicians to identify individuals at high NAFLD risk who could benefit from imaging.

Effect of Acute Stroke Care Regionalization on Intravenous Alteplase Use in Two Urban Counties.

Importance: Intravenous alteplase is an effective treatment for acute ischemic stroke and is significantly underutilized. It is known that stroke centers with accreditation are more likely to provide intravenous alteplase treatment, and therefore, policies that increase the number of certified stroke centers and the number of acute ischemic stroke patients routed to these centers may be beneficial. Objective: To determine whether increasing access to primary stroke centers (regionalization) led to an increase in intravenous alteplase use in acute ischemic stroke patients. Design: An observational, longitudinal study to examine treatment trends with log-link binomial regression modeling to compare pre-post policy implementation changes in the proportions of patients treated with intravenous alteplase in two counties. Setting: Two urban counties, Santa Clara and San Mateo, in the western region of US that regionalized acute stroke care between 2005 and 2010. Participants: Patients with primary or secondary diagnosis of stroke were identified from the statewide patient discharge database by International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) codes. We linked ambulance and hospital data to create complete patient care records. Main outcomes and measures: Stroke treatment, defined as a documented primary procedure code for intravenous alteplase administration (ICD-9: 99.10). Results: In Santa Clara County, intravenous alteplase was administered to 35 patients (1.7%) in the pre-regionalization period and 240 patients (2.1%) in the post-regionalization period. In San Mateo County, intravenous alteplase was administered to 29 patients (1.3%) in the pre-policy period and 135 patients (3.2%) in the post-policy period. After regionalization of stroke care, intravenous alteplase increased two-fold in San Mateo County [adjusted RR 2.20, p = 0.003, 95% CI (1.31, 3.69)] but did not show any statistically significant change in Santa Clara County [adjusted RR 1.10, p = 0.55, 95% CI (0.80, 1.51)]. In the post-regionalization phase, when compared with Santa Clara County, we found that San Mateo County had greater change in paramedic stroke detection, higher number of transports to primary stroke centers and more frequent use of intravenous alteplase at stroke centers. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that greater post-regionalization improvements in San Mateo County contributed to significantly better county-level thrombolysis use than Santa Clara County.

Association of Postoperative Antibiotics With Surgical Site Infection in Mohs Micrographic Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Surgical site infection (SSI) is the most frequent complication of Mohs micrographic surgery. Previous studies have identified risk factors for SSI, but it is not known whether antibiotic prophylaxis mitigates this risk. OBJECTIVE: To measure the association between antibiotic prophylaxis and SSI in a convenience sample of Mohs cases and to report on the utility of propensity scoring to control for confounding by indication in registry data. METHODS: Data were drawn from a pilot quality improvement registry of 816 Mohs cases. The relationship between antibiotic prophylaxis and SSI was assessed with logistic regression modeling using propensity score methods to adjust for confounding. RESULTS: One hundred fifty-one cases were prescribed antibiotic prophylaxis (18.5%). Of 467 cases with follow-up, 16 (3.4%) developed SSI. Infection rates were higher in subjects prescribed prophylaxis, but propensity adjustment reduced this effect. Adjusted odds of infection were 1.47-fold higher in subjects prescribed antibiotics and not statistically significant (95% confidence interval 0.29-7.39; p = .64). CONCLUSION: Although there was no significant difference in SSI among patients prescribed prophylactic antibiotics, statistical precision was limited by the low incidence of infection. Larger population-based prospective registry studies including propensity adjustment are needed to confirm the benefit of prophylactic antibiotics in high-risk surgical cases.

Continued Transmission of HIV Among Young Adults Who Inject Drugs in San Francisco: Still Room for Improvement.

We measured HIV incidence rate, trend and risk factors in 564 HIV-negative young people (< 30 years) who inject drugs (PWID) in San Francisco between 2000 and 2014. HIV incidence was 0.93/100 person-years (PY; 95% CI 0.50, 1.73). Incidence varied between 0.62/100 PY in 2000-2002 and 1.06/100 PY in 2012-2014 (P for trend = 1.0). HIV incidence varied significantly (P < 0.01) by race/ethnicity: among Hispanics it was 8.19/100 PY (95% CI 3.41, 19.68), African-Americans 4.59/100 PY (95% CI 1.15, 18.37), and Whites 0.26/100 PY (95% CI 0.06, 1.03). Male participants who reported sex with men (MSM) had higher HIV incidence (2.63/100 PY; 95% CI 1.31, 5.25) compared to males who did not report MSM (0.50/100 PY; 95% CI 0.12, 1.99) (P = 0.01). Despite an overall stable HIV incidence trend, incidence was elevated among African-American and Hispanic PWID, and men who have sex with men. Addressing prevention needs in these key populations is critical for the goal of eliminating HIV transmission.

Correction to: Hydroxychloroquine dosing in immune-mediated diseases: implications for patient safety.

The given and family name of a co-author R. Adams Dudley was swapped in the published article. The correct given name is R. Adams and the family name is Dudley.

Cellular immune correlates analysis of an HIV-1 preexposure prophylaxis trial.

HIV-1-specific T-cell responses in exposed seronegative subjects suggest that a viral breach of the exposure site is more common than current transmission rates would suggest and that host immunity can extinguish subsequent infection foci. The Preexposure Prophylaxis Initiative (iPrEx) chemoprophylaxis trial provided an opportunity to rigorously investigate these responses in a case-control immunology study; 84 preinfection peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples from individuals enrolled in the iPrEx trial who later seroconverted were matched with 480 samples from enrolled subjects who remained seronegative from both the placebo and active treatment arms. T-cell responses to HIV-1 Gag, Protease, Integrase, Reverse Transcriptase, Vif, and Nef antigens were quantified for all subjects in an IFN-γ enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISpot) assay. IFN-γ responses varied in magnitude and frequency across subjects. A positive response was more prevalent in those who remained persistently HIV-1-negative for Gag (P = 0.007), Integrase (P < 0.001), Vif (P < 0.001), and Nef (P < 0.001). When correlated with outcomes in the iPrEx trial, Vif- and Integrase-specific T-cell responses were associated with reduced HIV-1 infection risk [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.36, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 0.19-0.66 and HR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.28-0.96, respectively]. Antigen-specific responses were independent of emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate use. IFN-γ secretion in the ELISpot was confirmed using multiparametric flow cytometry and largely attributed to effector memory CD4+ or CD8+ T cells. Our results show that HIV-1-specific T-cell immunity can be detected in exposed but uninfected individuals and that these T-cell responses can differentiate individuals according to infection outcomes.

Protective Effect of Indoor Residual Spraying of Insecticide on Preterm Birth Among Pregnant Women With HIV Infection in Uganda: A Secondary Data Analysis.

Background: Recent evidence demonstrated improved birth outcomes among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-uninfected pregnant women protected by indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS). Evidence regarding its impact on HIV-infected pregnant women is lacking. Methods: Data were pooled from 2 studies conducted before and after an IRS campaign in Tororo, Uganda, among HIV-infected pregnant women who received bed nets, daily trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and combination antiretroviral therapy at enrollment. Exposure was the proportion of pregnancy protected by IRS. Adverse birth outcomes included preterm birth, low birth weight, and fetal or neonatal death. Multivariate Poisson regression with robust standard errors was used to estimate risk ratios. Results: Of 565 women in our analysis, 380 (67%), 88 (16%), and 97 (17%) women were protected by IRS for 0%, >0% to 90%, and >90% of their pregnancy, respectively. Any IRS protection significantly reduced malaria incidence during pregnancy and placental malaria risk. Compared with no IRS protection, >90% IRS protection reduced preterm birth risk (risk ratio, 0.35; 95% confidence interval, .15-.84), with nonsignificant decreases in the risk of low birth weight (0.68; .29-1.57) and fetal or neonatal death (0.24; .04-1.52). Discussion: Our exploratory analyses support the hypothesis that IRS may significantly reduce malaria and preterm birth risk among pregnant women with HIV receiving bed nets, daily trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and combination antiretroviral therapy.

Geographic Differences in Temporal Incidence Trends of Hepatitis C Virus Infection Among People Who Inject Drugs: The InC3 Collaboration.

BACKGROUND: We determined temporal trends (1985-2011) in hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence and associated behavioral exposures for people who inject drugs (PWID) from the United States (Boston, Baltimore, and San Francisco), Canada (Montreal), the Netherlands (Amsterdam), and Australia (Sydney and Melbourne). METHODS: Using population-based cohort data from HCV-negative PWID, we calculated overall and within-city HCV incidence trends, HCV rates by study enrollment period (1985-2011), and temporal trends in exposure behaviors. Poisson regression models estimated trends in HCV incidence over calendar-time. Survival models identified risk factors for HCV incidence across cities and estimated independent effects of city and calendar period on HCV infection risk. RESULTS: Among 1391 initially HCV-negative participants followed prospectively (1644.5 person-years of observation [PYO]), 371 HCV incident infections resulted in an overall incidence of 22.6 per 100 PYO (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.4-25.0). Incidence was highest and remained elevated in Baltimore (32.6/100 PYO), San Francisco (24.7/100 PYO), and Montreal (23.5/100 PYO), lowest in Melbourne and Amsterdam (7.5/100 PYO and 13.1/100 PYO, respectively), and moderate (21.4/100 PYO) in Sydney. Higher rates of syringe and equipment sharing and lower prevalence of opioid agonist therapy were associated with HCV incidence in cities with the highest incidence. Risk for infection dropped by 18% for every 3-year increase in calendar-time (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.8 [95% CI, .8-.9]) in the multivariable model. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in prevention strategies and injecting contexts may explain the ongoing high HCV incidence in these North American cities and emphasize the need for scale-up of opioid agonist therapy and increased coverage of needle and syringe programs in North America.

2016 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism classification criteria for primary Sjögren's syndrome: A consensus and data-driven methodology involving three international patient cohorts.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate an international set of classification criteria for primary Sjögren's syndrome (SS) using guidelines from the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) and the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR). These criteria were developed for use in individuals with signs and/or symptoms suggestive of SS. METHODS: We assigned preliminary importance weights to a consensus list of candidate criteria items, using multi-criteria decision analysis. We tested and adapted the resulting draft criteria using existing cohort data on primary SS cases and non-SS controls, with case/non-case status derived from expert clinical judgement. We then validated the performance of the classification criteria in a separate cohort of patients. RESULTS: The final classification criteria are based on the weighted sum of five items: anti-SSA/Ro antibody positivity and focal lymphocytic sialadenitis with a focus score of ≥1 foci/4 mm2, each scoring 3; an abnormal Ocular Staining Score of ≥5 (or van Bijsterveld score of ≥4), a Schirmer's test result of ≤5 mm/5 min and an unstimulated salivary flow rate of ≤0.1 mL/min, each scoring 1. Individuals with signs and/or symptoms suggestive of SS who have a total score of ≥4 for the above items meet the criteria for primary SS. Sensitivity and specificity against clinician-expert-derived case/non-case status in the final validation cohort were high, that is, 96% (95% CI92% to 98%) and 95% (95% CI 92% to 97%), respectively. CONCLUSION: Using methodology consistent with other recent ACR/EULAR-approved classification criteria, we developed a single set of data-driven consensus classification criteria for primary SS, which performed well in validation analyses and are well suited as criteria for enrolment in clinical trials.

The effect of intrauterine devices on acquisition and clearance of human papillomavirus.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have shown a decrease in cervical cancer associated with intrauterine device use. It has been hypothesized that intrauterine device use may alter the natural history of human papillomavirus infections, preempting development of precancerous lesions of the cervix and cervical cancer, but the effect of intrauterine devices on the natural history of human papillomavirus infection and subsequent development of cervical cancer is poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between intrauterine device use and cervical high-risk human papillomavirus acquisition and clearance. STUDY DESIGN: This is a prospective cohort study conducted from October 2000 through June 2014 among 676 sexually active young women and girls enrolled from family planning clinics in San Francisco, CA. Data were analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model, including time-varying indicators of intrauterine device use, and adjusting for fixed and time-dependent predictor variables. RESULTS: A total of 85 women used an intrauterine device at some time during follow-up. Among 14,513 study visits, women reported intrauterine device use at 505 visits. After adjusting for potential behavioral confounders, there was no association between intrauterine device use and human papillomavirus acquisition (hazard ratio, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.20-1.23; P = .13) or clearance of human papillomavirus infection (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-2.72; P = .26). CONCLUSION: Current intrauterine device use is not associated with acquisition or persistence of human papillomavirus infection. Intrauterine device use is safe among women and girls with human papillomavirus infections and at risk for human papillomavirus acquisition. Intrauterine device use may play a role further downstream in the natural history of cervical cancer by inhibiting the development of precancerous lesions of the cervix in human papillomavirus-infected women, or enhancing clearance of established precancerous lesions.

Relationship Between a Sepsis Intervention Bundle and In-Hospital Mortality Among Hospitalized Patients: A Retrospective Analysis of Real-World Data.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a systemic response to infection that can lead to tissue damage, organ failure, and death. Efforts have been made to develop evidence-based intervention bundles to identify and manage sepsis early in the course of the disease to decrease sepsis-related morbidity and mortality. We evaluated the relationship between a minimally invasive sepsis intervention bundle and in-hospital mortality using robust methods for observational data. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study at the University of California, San Francisco, Medical Center among adult patients discharged between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2014, and who received a diagnosis of severe sepsis/septic shock (SS/SS). Sepsis intervention bundle elements included measurement of blood lactate; drawing of blood cultures before starting antibiotics; initiation of broad spectrum antibiotics within 3 hours of sepsis presentation in the emergency department or 1 hour of presentation on an inpatient unit; administration of intravenous fluid bolus if the patient was hypotensive or had a lactate level >4 mmol/L; and starting intravenous vasopressors if the patient remained hypotensive after fluid bolus administration. Poisson regression for a binary outcome variable was used to estimate an adjusted incidence-rate ratio (IRR) comparing mortality in groups defined by bundle compliance measured as a binary predictor, and to estimate an adjusted number needed to treat (NNT). RESULTS: Complete bundle compliance was associated with a 31% lower risk of mortality (adjusted IRR, 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.53-0.91), adjusting for SS/SS presentation in the emergency department, SS/SS present on admission (POA), age, admission severity of illness and risk of mortality, Medicaid/Medicare payor status, immunocompromised host status, and congestive heart failure POA. The adjusted NNT to save one life was 15 (CI, 8-69). Other factors independently associated with mortality included SS/SS POA (adjusted IRR, 0.55; CI, 0.32-0.92) and increased age (adjusted IRR, 1.13 per 10-year increase in age; CI, 1.03-1.24). CONCLUSIONS: The University of California, San Francisco, sepsis bundle was associated with a decreased risk of in-hospital mortality across hospital units after robust control for confounders and risk adjustment. The adjusted NNT provides a reasonable and achievable goal to observe measureable improvements in outcomes for patients diagnosed with SS/SS.

Derivation of decision rules to predict clinically important outcomes in acute flank pain patients.

OBJECTIVE: Routine CT for patients with acute flank pain has not been shown to improve patient outcomes, and it may unnecessarily expose patients to radiation and increased costs. As preliminary steps toward the development of a guideline for selective CT, we sought to determine the prevalence of clinically important outcomes in patients with acute flank pain and derive preliminary decision rules. METHODS: We analyzed data from a randomized trial of CT vs. ultrasonography for patients with acute flank pain from 15 EDs between October 2011 and February 2013. Clinically important outcomes were defined as inpatient admission for ureteral stones and alternative diagnoses. Clinically important stones were defined as stones requiring urologic intervention. We sought to derive highly sensitive decision rules for both outcomes. RESULTS: Of 2759 participants, 236 (8.6%) had a clinically important outcome and 143 (5.2%) had a clinically important stone. A CDR including anemia (hemoglobin <13.2g/dl), WBC count >11000/µl, age>42years, and the absence of CVAT had a sensitivity of 97.9% (95% CI 94.8-99.2%) and specificity of 18.7% (95% 17.2-20.2%) for clinically important outcome. A CDR including hydronephrosis, prior history of stone, and WBC count <8300/µl had a sensitivity of 98.6% (95% CI 94.5-99.7%) and specificity of 26.0% (95% 24.2-27.7%) for clinically important stone. CONCLUSIONS: We determined the prevalence of clinically important outcomes in patients with acute flank pain, and derived preliminary high sensitivity CDRs that predict them. Validation of CDRs with similar test characteristics would require prospective enrollment of 2100 patients.

Medical expulsive therapy use in emergency department patients diagnosed with ureteral stones.

OBJECTIVE: Recent studies have clarified the role of alpha-blockers, such as tamsulosin, for patients diagnosed with ureteral stones <10mm not requiring an urgent intervention. Prior studies have reported low rates of use of MET by emergency physicians. We sought to describe patterns of alpha-blocker use and to determine factors associated with utilization in patients diagnosed with ureterolithiasis in the ED. METHODS: We used data from a randomized trial of CT scan vs. ultrasound in participants with suspected urolithiasis enrolled at 15 EDs between October 2011 and February 2013. The use of medical expulsive therapy was identified by the prescription of an alpha-blocker, calcium channel blocker, or steroid at the ED visit. The prevalence of alpha-blocker use in participants with ureteral stones on imaging was calculated, and multivariable models were used to examine risk factors for utilization. RESULTS: Of the 524 participants who were identified with a ureteral stone on CT scan and discharged from the ED, 375 (71.4%) received an alpha-blocker, and 2 (<1%) received a steroid. There was no significant difference in alpha-blocker use for participants based on stone size or location. However, there was a 3.6-fold difference in alpha-blocker use between the lowest and highest use ED sites. In the multivariable analysis, ED site was independently associated with utilization of alpha-blockers. CONCLUSIONS: Alpha-blockers were prescribed in more than two-thirds of patients with a distal ureteral stone on imaging, a much higher prevalence than previously reported. There was substantial variability in alpha-blocker use based on ED site.

Hydroxychloroquine dosing in immune-mediated diseases: implications for patient safety.

Evidence suggests that hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) retinal toxicity is more common than previously thought. Adhering to careful weight-based dosing can significantly reduce the risk of this adverse event and is recommended in recent guidelines. We used electronic health record data from a large health system to examine HCQ dosing over a 5-year period and identify risk factors associated with higher dosage of HCQ. We constructed a longitudinal, retrospective cohort of patients with HCQ prescriptions (1681 patients with 3490 prescribing events) between 2012 and 2016. We measured HCQ dosing patterns relative to guidelines (<6.5 and <5.0 mg/kg) over time and used longitudinal multivariate mixed effects logistic regression to identify sociodemographic, clinical and health system factors associated with receiving higher than recommended doses of HCQ. The proportion of patients receiving doses above 6.5 mg/kg decreased from 12% in 2012 to 7% by 2016. Similarly, the proportion of patients with doses above 5.0 mg/kg fell from 38% in 2012 to 30% in 2016. Low body weight (<68 kg) was strongly associated with receiving doses of HCQ above 6.5 mg/kg across all time points, even after adjusting for other factors (odds ratios ranging from 13.2 to 21.0). Although the proportion of patients receiving higher than recommended HCQ doses has declined over a period of 5 years, a substantial number of individuals remain at increased risk for toxicity. Given the widespread use of HCQ in immune-mediated diseases, our study suggests that interventions aimed to ensure appropriate dosing are warranted to improve patient safety.

Telomere length change plateaus at 4 years of age in Latino children: associations with baseline length and maternal change.

Telomeres are the protective complexes at the end of chromosomes, required for genomic stability. Little is known about predictors of attrition in young children or the relationship between parental and child patterns of telomere change. Telomere length was assessed twice over one year, at 4 and at 5 years of age, in Latino preschool children (n = 77) and their mothers (n = 70) in whole blood leukocytes. Maternal and child rates of attrition during the same time period were compared in 70 mother-child pairs. More children showed lengthened telomeres over one year compared to their mothers and very few children showed attrition (2.6 %). Approximately 31 % of children and 16 % of mothers displayed lengthening over one year while 66 % of children showed maintenance in contrast with 74 % of mothers. The strongest predictor for child telomere length change was child's baseline telomere length (r = -0.61, p < 0.01). Maternal rate of change was associated with child rate of change (r = 0.33, p < 0.01). After controlling for child baseline telomere length, the relationship between child and maternal rate of change trended towards significance (Coeff = 0.20, 95 % CI -0.03 to 0.43; p = 0.08). We found primarily maintenance and lengthening from 4 to 5 years of age in children, with minimal telomere attrition, indicating that most of the telomere loss happens in the first 4 years, plateauing by age 4. Lastly, we found close to 10 % of the variance in rate of change in children shared by mothers. While some of this shared variance is genetic, there are likely environmental factors that need to be further identified that impact rate of telomere length change.

A Risk Score for Childhood Obesity in an Urban Latino Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether individual obesity risk factors, present during gestation, and the first 6 months of life, can be combined into a simple prognostic model that has the ability to accurately predict childhood obesity at age 5 years in a high-risk cohort. STUDY DESIGN: A total of 201 Latina women were recruited during pregnancy, and their infants followed longitudinally. Ten risk factors for childhood obesity were included in an initial logistic model; a second reduced model was created via stepwise deletion (confirmed with nonparametric conditional random forest classifier), after which 5 risk factors remained. From each model, an obesity risk equation was derived, and an obesity risk score was generated for each patient. Derived algorithms were assessed using discrimination, calibration, and via predictive statistics. RESULTS: Of the 166 children followed through age 5 years, 56 (32%) met criteria for childhood obesity. Discrimination accuracy for both derivation models was excellent, and after optimism-corrected bootstrapping, both models showed meaningful clinical performance. Both models were adequately calibrated, showed strong sensitivity and negative predictive value at conservatively set obesity risk thresholds, and displayed excellent specificity among those classified as highest risk. Birth weight z-score and change in weight-for-age z-score between birth and 6 months were the risk factors with the strongest contribution to the obesity risk score. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity risk algorithms are reliable in their prediction of childhood obesity and have the potential to be integrated into the electronic medical record. These models could provide a filter for directing early prevention resources to children with high obesity risk but should be evaluated in a larger external dataset.