Comparing fitness and drift explanations of Neanderthal replacement.

There is a general consensus among archaeologists that replacement of Neanderthals by anatomically modern humans in Europe occurred around 40-35 ka. However, the causal mechanism for this replacement continues to be debated. Proposed models have featured either fitness advantages in favour of anatomically modern humans or invoked neutral drift under various preconditions. Searching for specific fitness advantages in the archaeological record has proven difficult, as these may be obscured, absent or subject to interpretation. To bridge this gap, we rigorously compare the system-level properties of fitness- and drift-based explanations of Neanderthal replacement. Our stochastic simulations and analytical predictions show that, although both fitness and drift can produce replacement, they present important differences in (i) required initial conditions, (ii) reliability, (iii) time to replacement, and (iv) path to replacement (population histories). These results present useful opportunities for comparison with archaeological and genetic data. We find greater agreement between the available empirical evidence and the system-level properties of replacement by differential fitness, rather than by neutral drift.

Author Correction: Early Pastoral Economies and Herding Transitions in Eastern Eurasia.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Early Pastoral Economies and Herding Transitions in Eastern Eurasia.

While classic models for the emergence of pastoral groups in Inner Asia describe mounted, horse-borne herders sweeping across the Eurasian Steppes during the Early or Middle Bronze Age (ca. 3000-1500 BCE), the actual economic basis of many early pastoral societies in the region is poorly characterized. In this paper, we use collagen mass fingerprinting and ancient DNA analysis of some of the first stratified and directly dated archaeofaunal assemblages from Mongolia's early pastoral cultures to undertake species identifications of this rare and highly fragmented material. Our results provide evidence for livestock-based, herding subsistence in Mongolia during the late 3rd and early 2nd millennia BCE. We observe no evidence for dietary exploitation of horses prior to the late Bronze Age, ca. 1200 BCE - at which point horses come to dominate ritual assemblages, play a key role in pastoral diets, and greatly influence pastoral mobility. In combination with the broader archaeofaunal record of Inner Asia, our analysis supports models for widespread changes in herding ecology linked to the innovation of horseback riding in Central Asia in the final 2nd millennium BCE. Such a framework can explain key broad-scale patterns in the movement of people, ideas, and material culture in Eurasian prehistory.

Modeling environmental variability and network formation among pastoral nomadic households: Implications for the rise of the Mongol Empire.

We use agent-based computer simulation to test the effect of environmental conditions (available biomass/carrying capacity and environmental risk) on the development of wealth inequality and patron-client herding networks in nomadic pastoral economies. Our results show that 1) wealth inequality reaches very high levels when carrying capacity is high and risk is low, and 2) patron-client contract herding networks increase in size and duration when carrying capacity is high and risk is low. We compare empirical data from the Mongol (1206-1368 CE) and Xiongnu (209 BCE- 48 CE) empires with simulation results to develop an explanatory mechanism for the apparent correlation between nomadic empire creation and positive environmental conditions. We argue that the internal dynamics of nomadic pastoral societies are sufficient to produce high degrees of inequality and hierarchical herding networks. Nomadic empires are more likely to form during key periods of increased biomass and decreased environmental risk.