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1.
Nat Immunol ; 16(2): 170-177, 2015 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25501631

ABSTRACT

Dengue is a rapidly emerging, mosquito-borne viral infection, with an estimated 400 million infections occurring annually. To gain insight into dengue immunity, we characterized 145 human monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and identified a previously unknown epitope, the envelope dimer epitope (EDE), that bridges two envelope protein subunits that make up the 90 repeating dimers on the mature virion. The mAbs to EDE were broadly reactive across the dengue serocomplex and fully neutralized virus produced in either insect cells or primary human cells, with 50% neutralization in the low picomolar range. Our results provide a path to a subunit vaccine against dengue virus and have implications for the design and monitoring of future vaccine trials in which the induction of antibody to the EDE should be prioritized.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Neutralizing/isolation & purification , Dengue Virus/immunology , Dengue/immunology , Viral Envelope Proteins/immunology , Animals , Antibodies, Monoclonal/blood , Antibodies, Monoclonal/isolation & purification , Antibodies, Monoclonal/metabolism , Antibodies, Neutralizing/blood , Biological Assay , Cell Line , Dengue/blood , Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay , Humans , Immunoblotting , Viral Envelope Proteins/metabolism
2.
N Engl J Med ; 384(23): 2177-2186, 2021 06 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34107180

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the wMel strain of Wolbachia pipientis are less susceptible than wild-type A. aegypti to dengue virus infection. METHODS: We conducted a cluster-randomized trial involving releases of wMel-infected A. aegypti mosquitoes for the control of dengue in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. We randomly assigned 12 geographic clusters to receive deployments of wMel-infected A. aegypti (intervention clusters) and 12 clusters to receive no deployments (control clusters). All clusters practiced local mosquito-control measures as usual. A test-negative design was used to assess the efficacy of the intervention. Patients with acute undifferentiated fever who presented to local primary care clinics and were 3 to 45 years of age were recruited. Laboratory testing was used to identify participants who had virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) and those who were test-negative controls. The primary end point was symptomatic VCD of any severity caused by any dengue virus serotype. RESULTS: After successful introgression of wMel into the intervention clusters, 8144 participants were enrolled; 3721 lived in intervention clusters, and 4423 lived in control clusters. In the intention-to-treat analysis, VCD occurred in 67 of 2905 participants (2.3%) in the intervention clusters and in 318 of 3401 (9.4%) in the control clusters (aggregate odds ratio for VCD, 0.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15 to 0.35; P = 0.004). The protective efficacy of the intervention was 77.1% (95% CI, 65.3 to 84.9) and was similar against the four dengue virus serotypes. The incidence of hospitalization for VCD was lower among participants who lived in intervention clusters (13 of 2905 participants [0.4%]) than among those who lived in control clusters (102 of 3401 [3.0%]) (protective efficacy, 86.2%; 95% CI, 66.2 to 94.3). CONCLUSIONS: Introgression of wMel into A. aegypti populations was effective in reducing the incidence of symptomatic dengue and resulted in fewer hospitalizations for dengue among the participants. (Funded by the Tahija Foundation and others; AWED ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03055585; Indonesia Registry number, INA-A7OB6TW.).


Subject(s)
Aedes/microbiology , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Dengue/transmission , Mosquito Vectors , Wolbachia , Adolescent , Adult , Aedes/virology , Animals , Child , Child, Preschool , Dengue/diagnosis , Dengue/epidemiology , Dengue/prevention & control , Dengue Virus/isolation & purification , Female , Humans , Incidence , Indonesia/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Mosquito Vectors/microbiology , Mosquito Vectors/virology , Young Adult
3.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 29(1): 160-163, 2023 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36573590

ABSTRACT

We assessed predominantly pediatric patients in Vietnam with dengue and other febrile illness 3 months after acute illness. Among dengue patients, 47% reported >1 postacute symptom. Most resolved by 3 months, but alopecia and vision problems often persisted. Our findings provide additional evidence on postacute dengue burden and confirm children are affected.


Subject(s)
Dengue , Humans , Child , Dengue/complications , Dengue/diagnosis , Dengue/epidemiology , Vietnam/epidemiology
4.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 117(39): 24475-24483, 2020 09 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32913052

ABSTRACT

Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes are refractory to flavivirus infections, but the role of lipids in Wolbachia-mediated virus blocking remains to be elucidated. Here, we use liquid chromatography mass spectrometry to provide a comprehensive picture of the lipidome of Aedes aegypti (Aag2) cells infected with Wolbachia only, either dengue or Zika virus only, and Wolbachia-infected Aag2 cells superinfected with either dengue or Zika virus. This approach identifies a class of lipids, acyl-carnitines, as being down-regulated during Wolbachia infection. Furthermore, treatment with an acyl-carnitine inhibitor assigns a crucial role for acyl-carnitines in the replication of dengue and Zika viruses. In contrast, depletion of acyl-carnitines increases Wolbachia density while addition of commercially available acyl-carnitines impairs Wolbachia production. Finally, we show an increase in flavivirus infection of Wolbachia-infected cells with the addition of acyl-carnitines. This study uncovers a previously unknown role for acyl-carnitines in this tripartite interaction that suggests an important and broad mechanism that underpins Wolbachia-mediated pathogen blocking.


Subject(s)
Aedes/microbiology , Aedes/virology , Carnitine/metabolism , Wolbachia/physiology , Zika Virus/physiology , Aedes/chemistry , Aedes/metabolism , Animals , Carnitine/chemistry , Female , Mosquito Vectors/chemistry , Mosquito Vectors/metabolism , Mosquito Vectors/microbiology , Mosquito Vectors/virology
5.
J Virol ; 95(13): e0220320, 2021 06 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33853965

ABSTRACT

Recent field trials have demonstrated that dengue incidence can be substantially reduced by introgressing strains of the endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia into Aedes aegypti mosquito populations. This strategy relies on Wolbachia reducing the susceptibility of Ae. aegypti to disseminated infection by positive-sense RNA viruses like dengue. However, RNA viruses are well known to adapt to antiviral pressures. Here, we review the viral infection stages where selection for Wolbachia-resistant virus variants could occur. We also consider the genetic constraints imposed on viruses that alternate between vertebrate and invertebrate hosts, and the likely selection pressures to which dengue virus might adapt in order to be effectively transmitted by Ae. aegypti that carry Wolbachia. While there are hurdles to dengue viruses developing resistance to Wolbachia, we suggest that long-term surveillance for resistant viruses should be an integral component of Wolbachia-introgression biocontrol programs.


Subject(s)
Adaptation, Physiological/physiology , Aedes/microbiology , Dengue Virus/growth & development , Dengue/prevention & control , Wolbachia/metabolism , Aedes/drug effects , Animals , Dengue/pathology , Dengue/transmission , Drosophila/microbiology , Evolution, Molecular , Humans , Insecticide Resistance/physiology , Mosquito Vectors/microbiology , Selection, Genetic/genetics
6.
PLoS Pathog ; 16(7): e1008410, 2020 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32726353

ABSTRACT

The bacterial endosymbiont Wolbachia is a biocontrol tool that inhibits the ability of the Aedes aegypti mosquito to transmit positive-sense RNA viruses such as dengue and Zika. Growing evidence indicates that when Wolbachia strains wMel or wAlbB are introduced into local mosquito populations, human dengue incidence is reduced. Despite the success of this novel intervention, we still do not fully understand how Wolbachia protects mosquitoes from viral infection. Here, we demonstrate that the Wolbachia strain wPip does not inhibit virus infection in Ae. aegypti. We have leveraged this novel finding, and a panel of Ae. aegypti lines carrying virus-inhibitory (wMel and wAlbB) and non-inhibitory (wPip) strains in a common genetic background, to rigorously test a number of hypotheses about the mechanism of Wolbachia-mediated virus inhibition. We demonstrate that, contrary to previous suggestions, there is no association between a strain's ability to inhibit dengue infection in the mosquito and either its typical density in the midgut or salivary glands, or the degree to which it elevates innate immune response pathways in the mosquito. These findings, and the experimental platform provided by this panel of genetically comparable mosquito lines, clear the way for future investigations to define how Wolbachia prevents Ae. aegypti from transmitting viruses.


Subject(s)
Aedes/microbiology , Dengue Virus , Microbial Interactions/physiology , Mosquito Vectors/microbiology , Wolbachia , Animals , Dengue/prevention & control , Dengue/transmission , Gram-Negative Bacterial Infections , Pest Control, Biological/methods , Phenotype
7.
PLoS Pathog ; 16(4): e1008433, 2020 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32282862

ABSTRACT

The insect bacterium Wolbachia pipientis is being introgressed into Aedes aegypti populations as an intervention against the transmission of medically important arboviruses. Here we compare Ae. aegypti mosquitoes infected with wMelCS or wAlbB to the widely used wMel Wolbachia strain on an Australian nuclear genetic background for their susceptibility to infection by dengue virus (DENV) genotypes spanning all four serotypes. All Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes were more resistant to intrathoracic DENV challenge than their wildtype counterparts. Blocking of DENV replication was greatest by wMelCS. Conversely, wAlbB-infected mosquitoes were more susceptible to whole body infection than wMel and wMelCS. We extended these findings via mosquito oral feeding experiments, using viremic blood from 36 acute, hospitalised dengue cases in Vietnam, additionally including wMel and wildtype mosquitoes on a Vietnamese nuclear genetic background. As above, wAlbB was less effective at blocking DENV replication in the abdomen compared to wMel and wMelCS. The transmission potential of all Wolbachia-infected mosquito lines (measured by the presence/absence of infectious DENV in mosquito saliva) after 14 days, was significantly reduced compared to their wildtype counterparts, and lowest for wMelCS and wAlbB. These data support the use of wAlbB and wMelCS strains for introgression field trials and the biocontrol of DENV transmission. Furthermore, despite observing significant differences in transmission potential between wildtype mosquitoes from Australia and Vietnam, no difference was observed between wMel-infected mosquitoes from each background suggesting that Wolbachia may override any underlying variation in DENV transmission potential.


Subject(s)
Aedes/microbiology , Aedes/virology , Dengue Virus/physiology , Mosquito Vectors/microbiology , Mosquito Vectors/virology , Wolbachia/physiology , Aedes/genetics , Aedes/metabolism , Animals , Female , Male , Mosquito Vectors/genetics , Mosquito Vectors/metabolism , Pest Control, Biological , Virus Replication
10.
Clin Infect Dis ; 72(12): e1074-e1083, 2021 06 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33340040

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: One of the generally accepted constructs of dengue pathogenesis is that clinical disease severity is at least partially dependent upon plasma viremia, yet data on plasma viremia in primary versus secondary infections and in relation to clinically relevant endpoints remain limited and contradictory. METHODS: Using a large database comprising detailed clinical and laboratory characterization of Vietnamese participants enrolled in a series of research studies executed over a 15-year period, we explored relationships between plasma viremia measured by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and 3 clinically relevant endpoints-severe dengue, plasma leakage, and hospitalization-in the dengue-confirmed cases. All 4 dengue serotypes and both primary and secondary infections were well represented. In our logistic regression models we allowed for a nonlinear effect of viremia and for associations between viremia and outcome to differ by age, serotype, host immune status, and illness day at study enrollment. RESULTS: Among 5642 dengue-confirmed cases we identified 259 (4.6%) severe dengue cases, 701 (12.4%) patients with plasma leakage, and 1441 of 4008 (40.0%) patients recruited in outpatient settings who were subsequently hospitalized. From the early febrile phase onwards, higher viremia increased the risk of developing all 3 endpoints, but effect sizes were modest (ORs ranging from 1.12-1.27 per 1-log increase) compared with the effects of a secondary immune response (ORs, 1.67-7.76). The associations were consistent across age, serotype, and immune status groups, and in the various sensitivity and subgroup analyses we undertook. CONCLUSIONS: Higher plasma viremia is associated with increased dengue severity, regardless of serotype or immune status.


Subject(s)
Dengue Virus , Dengue , Asian People , Dengue/epidemiology , Humans , Serogroup , Viremia
11.
Virol J ; 18(1): 251, 2021 12 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34906166

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The uncontrollable spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas during 2015-2017, and its causal link to microcephaly in newborns and Guillain-Barré syndrome in adults, led the World Health Organisation to declare it a global public health emergency. One of the most notable features of ZIKV pathogenesis was the ability of the virus to pass the placental barrier to infect the growing foetus. This pathogenic trait had not been observed previously for medically important flaviviruses, including dengue and yellow fever viruses. METHODS: In this study we evaluated the replication kinetics of ZIKV and the related encephalitic flavivirus West Nile strain Kunjin virus (WNVKUN) in early-term placental cell lines. RESULTS: We have observed that WNVKUN in fact replicates with a greater rate and to higher titres that ZIKV in these cell lines. CONCLUSIONS: These results would indicate the potential for all flaviviruses to replicate in placental tissue but it is the ability to cross the placenta itself that is the restrictive factor in the clinical progression and presentation of congenital Zika syndrome.


Subject(s)
Flavivirus , Zika Virus Infection , Zika Virus , Cell Line , Female , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Kinetics , Placenta/pathology , Pregnancy
12.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 115(36): E8378-E8387, 2018 09 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30127007

ABSTRACT

Two phase 3 placebo-controlled trials of the CYD-TDV vaccine, evaluated in children aged 2-14 y (CYD14) and 9-16 y (CYD15), demonstrated vaccine efficacy (VE) of 56.5% and 60.8%, respectively, against symptomatic virologically confirmed dengue (VCD). Sieve analyses were conducted to evaluate whether and how VE varied with amino acid sequence features of dengue viruses (DENVs). DENV premembrane/envelope amino acid sequences from VCD endpoint cases were aligned with the vaccine insert sequences, and extensions of the proportional hazards model were applied to assess variation in VE with amino acid mismatch proportion distances from vaccine strains, individual amino acid residues, and phylogenetic genotypes. In CYD14, VE against VCD of any serotype (DENV-Any) decreased significantly with increasing amino acid distance from the vaccine, whereas in CYD15, VE against DENV-Any was distance-invariant. Restricting to the common age range and amino acid distance range between the trials and accounting for differential VE by serotype, however, showed no evidence of VE variation with distance in either trial. In serotype-specific analyses, VE against DENV4 decreased significantly with increasing amino acid distance from the DENV4 vaccine insert and was significantly greater against residue-matched DENV4 at eight signature positions. These effects were restricted to 2- to 8-y-olds, potentially because greater seropositivity of older children at baseline might facilitate a broader protective immune response. The relevance of an antigenic match between vaccine strains and circulating DENVs was also supported by greater estimated VE against serotypes and genotypes for which the circulating DENVs had shorter amino acid sequence distances from the vaccine.


Subject(s)
Dengue Vaccines/administration & dosage , Dengue Virus/genetics , Dengue/prevention & control , Genetic Variation , Genotype , Age Factors , Child , Child, Preschool , Dengue/genetics , Dengue/immunology , Dengue Vaccines/genetics , Dengue Vaccines/immunology , Dengue Virus/immunology , Female , Humans , Male
13.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 115(2): 361-366, 2018 01 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29279375

ABSTRACT

The wMel strain of Wolbachia can reduce the permissiveness of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to disseminated arboviral infections. Here, we report that wMel-infected Ae. aegypti (Ho Chi Minh City background), when directly blood-fed on 141 viremic dengue patients, have lower dengue virus (DENV) transmission potential and have a longer extrinsic incubation period than their wild-type counterparts. The wMel-infected mosquitoes that are field-reared have even greater relative resistance to DENV infection when fed on patient-derived viremic blood meals. This is explained by an increased susceptibility of field-reared wild-type mosquitoes to infection than laboratory-reared counterparts. Collectively, these field- and clinically relevant findings support the continued careful field-testing of wMel introgression for the biocontrol of Ae. aegypti-born arboviruses.


Subject(s)
Aedes/virology , Dengue Virus/physiology , Dengue/virology , Mosquito Vectors/virology , Wolbachia/physiology , Aedes/microbiology , Animals , Dengue/blood , Dengue/transmission , Humans , Logistic Models , Mosquito Vectors/microbiology , Pest Control, Biological/methods , Time Factors , Viremia/blood , Viremia/virology
14.
Biostatistics ; 20(2): 332-346, 2019 04 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29447357

ABSTRACT

Intervention trials of vector control methods often require community level randomization with appropriate inferential methods. For many interventions, the possibility of confounding due to the effects of health-care seeking behavior on disease ascertainment remains a concern. The test-negative design, a variant of the case-control method, was introduced to mitigate this issue in the assessment of the efficacy of influenza vaccination (measured at an individual level) on influenza infection. Here, we introduce a cluster-randomized test-negative design that includes randomization of the intervention at a group level. We propose several methods for estimation and inference regarding the relative risk (RR). The inferential methods considered are based on the randomization distribution induced by permuting intervention assignment across two sets of randomly selected clusters. The motivating example is a current study of the efficacy of randomized releases of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to reduce the incidence of dengue in Yogyakarta City, Indonesia. Estimation and inference techniques are assessed through a simulation study.


Subject(s)
Biostatistics/methods , Models, Statistical , Random Allocation , Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic/methods , Aedes/microbiology , Animals , Dengue/prevention & control , Humans , Mosquito Vectors , Wolbachia/pathogenicity
15.
Nature ; 496(7446): 504-7, 2013 Apr 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23563266

ABSTRACT

Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.


Subject(s)
Dengue/epidemiology , Global Health/statistics & numerical data , Cohort Studies , Databases, Factual/standards , Dengue/transmission , Dengue/virology , Dengue Virus/physiology , Humans , Incidence , Public Health/statistics & numerical data , Quality Control , Rain , Risk Factors , Temperature , Tropical Climate , Urbanization , World Health Organization
16.
Am J Epidemiol ; 187(9): 2021-2028, 2018 09 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29741576

ABSTRACT

Cluster-randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for assessing efficacy of community-level interventions, such as vector-control strategies against dengue. We describe a novel cluster-randomized trial methodology with a test-negative design (CR-TND), which offers advantages over traditional approaches. This method uses outcome-based sampling of patients presenting with a syndrome consistent with the disease of interest, who are subsequently classified as test-positive cases or test-negative controls on the basis of diagnostic testing. We used simulations of a cluster trial to demonstrate validity of efficacy estimates under the test-negative approach. We demonstrated that, provided study arms are balanced for both test-negative and test-positive illness at baseline and that other test-negative design assumptions are met, the efficacy estimates closely match true efficacy. Analytical considerations for an odds ratio-based effect estimate arising from clustered data and potential approaches to analysis are also discussed briefly. We concluded that application of the test-negative design to certain cluster-randomized trials could increase their efficiency and ease of implementation.


Subject(s)
Dengue/prevention & control , Research Design , Humans
17.
BMC Med ; 16(1): 84, 2018 06 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29871628

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Various Zika virus (ZIKV) vaccine candidates are currently in development. Nevertheless, unique challenges in clinical development and regulatory pathways may hinder the licensure of high-quality, safe, and effective ZIKV vaccines. DISCUSSION: Implementing phase 3 efficacy trials will be difficult given the challenges of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of ZIKV transmission, the unpredictability of ZIKV epidemics, the broad spectrum of clinical manifestations making a single definite endpoint difficult, a lack of sensitive and specific diagnostic assays, and the need for inclusion of vulnerable target populations. In addition to a vaccine, drugs for primary prophylaxis, post-exposure prophylaxis, or treatment should also be developed to prevent or mitigate the severity of congenital Zika syndrome. CONCLUSION: Establishing the feasibility of immune correlates and/or surrogates are a priority. Given the challenges in conducting phase 3 trials at a time of waning incidence, human challenge trials should be considered to evaluate efficacy. Continued financial support and engagement of industry partners will be essential to the successful development, licensure, and accessibility of Zika vaccines or therapeutics.


Subject(s)
Viral Vaccines/therapeutic use , Zika Virus Infection/prevention & control , Zika Virus/pathogenicity , Humans , Viral Vaccines/pharmacology , Zika Virus Infection/epidemiology
18.
PLoS Pathog ; 12(2): e1005434, 2016 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26891349

ABSTRACT

Wolbachia pipientis is an endosymbiotic bacterium estimated to chronically infect between 40-75% of all arthropod species. Aedes aegypti, the principle mosquito vector of dengue virus (DENV), is not a natural host of Wolbachia. The transinfection of Wolbachia strains such as wAlbB, wMel and wMelPop-CLA into Ae. aegypti has been shown to significantly reduce the vector competence of this mosquito for a range of human pathogens in the laboratory. This has led to wMel-transinfected Ae. aegypti currently being released in five countries to evaluate its effectiveness to control dengue disease in human populations. Here we describe the generation of a superinfected Ae. aegypti mosquito line simultaneously infected with two avirulent Wolbachia strains, wMel and wAlbB. The line carries a high overall Wolbachia density and tissue localisation of the individual strains is very similar to each respective single infected parental line. The superinfected line induces unidirectional cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) when crossed to each single infected parental line, suggesting that the superinfection would have the capacity to replace either of the single constituent infections already present in a mosquito population. No significant differences in fitness parameters were observed between the superinfected line and the parental lines under the experimental conditions tested. Finally, the superinfected line blocks DENV replication more efficiently than the single wMel strain when challenged with blood meals from viremic dengue patients. These results suggest that the deployment of superinfections could be used to replace single infections and may represent an effective strategy to help manage potential resistance by DENV to field deployments of single infected strains.


Subject(s)
Aedes/microbiology , Insect Vectors/immunology , Pest Control, Biological , Rickettsiaceae Infections/microbiology , Superinfection/microbiology , Wolbachia , Animals , Dengue/virology , Dengue Virus , Female , Humans , Pest Control, Biological/methods , Saliva/microbiology , Virus Replication
19.
Clin Infect Dis ; 64(5): 656-663, 2017 03 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28034883

ABSTRACT

Background: Early prediction of severe dengue could significantly assist patient triage and case management. Methods: We prospectively investigated 7563 children with ≤3 days of fever recruited in the outpatient departments of 6 hospitals in southern Vietnam between 2010 and 2013. The primary endpoint of interest was severe dengue (2009 World Health Organization Guidelines), and predefined risk variables were collected at the time of enrollment to enable prognostic model development. Results: The analysis population comprised 7544 patients, of whom 2060 (27.3%) had laboratory-confirmed dengue; nested among these were 117 (1.5%) severe cases. In the multivariate logistic model, a history of vomiting, lower platelet count, elevated aspartate aminotransferase (AST) level, positivity in the nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) rapid test, and viremia magnitude were all independently associated with severe dengue. The final prognostic model (Early Severe Dengue Identifier [ESDI]) included history of vomiting, platelet count, AST level. and NS1 rapid test status. Conclusions: The ESDI had acceptable performance features (area under the curve = 0.95, sensitivity 87% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80%-92%), specificity 88% (95% CI, 87%-89%), positive predictive value 10% (95% CI, 9%-12%), and negative predictive value of 99% (95% CI, 98%-100%) in the population of all 7563 enrolled children. A score chart, for routine clinical use, was derived from the prognostic model and could improve triage and management of children presenting with fever in dengue-endemic areas.


Subject(s)
Outpatients , Severe Dengue/diagnosis , Severe Dengue/epidemiology , Algorithms , Biomarkers , Child , Child, Preschool , Dengue Virus/classification , Dengue Virus/genetics , Female , Humans , Male , Nomograms , Odds Ratio , Population Surveillance , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , ROC Curve , Severe Dengue/virology , Symptom Assessment , Time Factors , Vietnam/epidemiology
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