Defining the mechanism of galectin-3-mediated TGF-ß1 activation and its role in lung fibrosis.

Integrin-mediated activation of the profibrotic mediator transforming growth factor-ß1 (TGF-ß1), plays a critical role in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) pathogenesis. Galectin-3 is believed to contribute to the pathological wound healing seen in IPF, although its mechanism of action is not precisely defined. We hypothesized that galectin-3 potentiates TGF-ß1 activation and/or signaling in the lung to promote fibrogenesis. We show that galectin-3 induces TGF-ß1 activation in human lung fibroblasts (HLFs) and specifically that extracellular galectin-3 promotes oleoyl-L-α-lysophosphatidic acid sodium salt-induced integrin-mediated TGF-ß1 activation. Surface plasmon resonance analysis confirmed that galectin-3 binds to αv integrins, αvß1, αvß5, and αvß6, and to the TGFßRII subunit in a glycosylation-dependent manner. This binding is heterogeneous and not a 1:1 binding stoichiometry. Binding interactions were blocked by small molecule inhibitors of galectin-3, which target the carbohydrate recognition domain. Galectin-3 binding to ß1 integrin was validated in vitro by coimmunoprecipitation in HLFs. Proximity ligation assays indicated that galectin-3 and ß1 integrin colocalize closely (≤40 nm) on the cell surface and that colocalization is increased by TGF-ß1 treatment and blocked by galectin-3 inhibitors. In the absence of TGF-ß1 stimulation, colocalization was detectable only in HLFs from IPF patients, suggesting the proteins are inherently more closely associated in the disease state. Galectin-3 inhibitor treatment of precision cut lung slices from IPF patients' reduced Col1a1, TIMP1, and hyaluronan secretion to a similar degree as TGF-ß type I receptor inhibitor. These data suggest that galectin-3 promotes TGF-ß1 signaling and may induce fibrogenesis by interacting directly with components of the TGF-ß1 signaling cascade.

Rheumatoid arthritis and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a bidirectional Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: A usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern of lung injury is a key feature of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and is also observed in up to 40% of individuals with rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD). The RA-UIP phenotype could result from either a causal relationship of RA on UIP or vice versa, or from a simple co-occurrence of RA and IPF due to shared demographic, genetic or environmental risk factors. METHODS: We used two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomisation (MR) to test the hypothesis of a causal effect of RA on UIP and of UIP on RA, using variants from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of RA (separately for seropositive (18 019 cases and 991 604 controls) and seronegative (8515 cases and 1 015 471 controls) RA) and of IPF (4125 cases and 20 464 controls) as genetic instruments. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the results to violations of the MR assumptions. FINDINGS: IPF showed a significant causal effect on seropositive RA, with developing IPF increasing the risk of seropositive RA (OR=1.06, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.08, p<0.001) which was robust under all models. For the MR in the other direction, seropositive RA showed a significant protective effect on IPF (OR=0.93; 95% CI: 0.87 to 0.99; p=0.032), but the effect was not significant when sensitivity analyses were applied. This was likely because of bias due to exclusion of patients with RA from among the cases in the IPF GWAS, or possibly because our genetic instruments did not fully capture the effect of the complex human leucocyte antigen region, the strongest RA genetic risk factor. INTERPRETATION: Our findings support the hypothesis that RA-UIP may be due to a cause-effect relationship between UIP and RA, rather than due to a coincidental occurrence of IPF in patients with RA. The significant causal effect of IPF on seropositive RA suggests that pathomechanisms involved in the development of UIP may promote RA, and this may help inform future guidelines on screening for ILD in patients with RA.

Mortality surrogates in combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) with coexistent emphysema, termed combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) may associate with reduced forced vital capacity (FVC) declines compared to non-CPFE IPF patients. We examined associations between mortality and functional measures of disease progression in two IPF cohorts. METHODS: Visual emphysema presence (>0% emphysema) scored on computed tomography identified CPFE patients (CPFE/non-CPFE: derivation cohort n=317/n=183, replication cohort n=358/n=152), who were subgrouped using 10% or 15% visual emphysema thresholds, and an unsupervised machine-learning model considering emphysema and interstitial lung disease extents. Baseline characteristics, 1-year relative FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (D LCO) decline (linear mixed-effects models), and their associations with mortality (multivariable Cox regression models) were compared across non-CPFE and CPFE subgroups. RESULTS: In both IPF cohorts, CPFE patients with ≥10% emphysema had a greater smoking history and lower baseline D LCO compared to CPFE patients with <10% emphysema. Using multivariable Cox regression analyses in patients with ≥10% emphysema, 1-year D LCO decline showed stronger mortality associations than 1-year FVC decline. Results were maintained in patients suitable for therapeutic IPF trials and in subjects subgrouped by ≥15% emphysema and using unsupervised machine learning. Importantly, the unsupervised machine-learning approach identified CPFE patients in whom FVC decline did not associate strongly with mortality. In non-CPFE IPF patients, 1-year FVC declines ≥5% and ≥10% showed strong mortality associations. CONCLUSION: When assessing disease progression in IPF, D LCO decline should be considered in patients with ≥10% emphysema and a ≥5% 1-year relative FVC decline threshold considered in non-CPFE IPF patients.

Feasibility and acceptability of remotely monitoring spirometry and pulse oximetry as part of interstitial lung disease clinical care: a single arm observational study.

BACKGROUND: Remote monitoring of patient-recorded spirometry and pulse oximetry offers an alternative approach to traditional hospital-based monitoring of interstitial lung disease (ILD). Remote spirometry has been observed to reasonably reflect clinic spirometry in participants with ILD but remote monitoring has not been widely incorporated into clinical practice. We assessed the feasibility of remotely monitoring patients within a clinical ILD service. METHODS: Prospective, single-arm, open-label observational multi-centre study (NCT04850521). Inclusion criteria included ILD diagnosis, age ≥ 18 years, FVC ≥ 50% predicted. 60 participants were asked to record a single spirometry and oximetry measurement at least once daily, monitored weekly by their local clinical team. Feasibility was defined as ≥ 68% of participants with ≥ 70% adherence to study measurements and recording measurements ≥ 3 times/week throughout. RESULTS: A total of 60 participants were included in the analysis. 42/60 (70%) were male; mean age 67.8 years (± 11.2); 34/60 (56.7%) had idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), Median ILD-GAP score was 3 (IQR 1-4.75). Spirometry adherence was achieved for ≥ 70% of study days in 46/60 participants (77%) and pulse oximetry adherence in 50/60 participants (83%). Recording ≥ 3 times/week every week was provided for spirometry in 41/60 participants (68%) and pulse oximetry in 43/60 participants (72%). Mean difference between recent clinic and baseline home spirometry was 0.31 L (± 0.72). 85.7% (IQR 63.9-92.6%) home spirometry attempts/patient were acceptable or usable according to ERS/ATS spirometry criteria. Positive correlation was observed between ILD-GAP score and adherence to spirometry and oximetry (rho 0.24 and 0.38 respectively). Adherence of weekly monitoring by clinical teams was 80.95% (IQR 64.19-95.79). All participants who responded to an experience questionnaire (n = 33) found remote measurements easy to perform and 75% wished to continue monitoring their spirometry at the conclusion of the study. CONCLUSION: Feasibility of remote monitoring within an ILD clinical service was demonstrated over 3 months for both daily home spirometry and pulse oximetry of patients. Remote monitoring may be more acceptable to participants who are older or have more advanced disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT04850521 registered 20th April 2021.

Residual Lung Abnormalities after COVID-19 Hospitalization: Interim Analysis of the UKILD Post-COVID-19 Study.

Rationale: Shared symptoms and genetic architecture between coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and lung fibrosis suggest severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection may lead to progressive lung damage. Objectives: The UK Interstitial Lung Disease Consortium (UKILD) post-COVID-19 study interim analysis was planned to estimate the prevalence of residual lung abnormalities in people hospitalized with COVID-19 on the basis of risk strata. Methods: The PHOSP-COVID-19 (Post-Hospitalization COVID-19) study was used to capture routine and research follow-up within 240 days from discharge. Thoracic computed tomography linked by PHOSP-COVID-19 identifiers was scored for the percentage of residual lung abnormalities (ground-glass opacities and reticulations). Risk factors in linked computed tomography were estimated with Bayesian binomial regression, and risk strata were generated. Numbers within strata were used to estimate posthospitalization prevalence using Bayesian binomial distributions. Sensitivity analysis was restricted to participants with protocol-driven research follow-up. Measurements and Main Results: The interim cohort comprised 3,700 people. Of 209 subjects with linked computed tomography (median, 119 d; interquartile range, 83-155), 166 people (79.4%) had more than 10% involvement of residual lung abnormalities. Risk factors included abnormal chest X-ray (risk ratio [RR], 1.21; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.05-1.40), percent predicted DlCO less than 80% (RR, 1.25; 95% CrI, 1.00-1.56), and severe admission requiring ventilation support (RR, 1.27; 95% CrI, 1.07-1.55). In the remaining 3,491 people, moderate to very high risk of residual lung abnormalities was classified at 7.8%, and posthospitalization prevalence was estimated at 8.5% (95% CrI, 7.6-9.5), rising to 11.7% (95% CrI, 10.3-13.1) in the sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: Residual lung abnormalities were estimated in up to 11% of people discharged after COVID-19-related hospitalization. Health services should monitor at-risk individuals to elucidate long-term functional implications.

Child and family health-related quality of life and participation outcomes and goals after acquired brain injury: a cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: To explore longer-term health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and participation outcomes and goals of children and young people (CYP) with acquired brain injuries (ABI) and their families in a region of the UK and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey of (5-18 CYP) and their parent-carers 12-43 months following ABI. Included measures of HRQoL, participation, family function and parental wellbeing and demographic and free text questions. RESULTS: Ninety-five responses (30% response) were received. 67% of CYP were at risk of impaired HRQoL, 72% had severely impaired participation. 53% of parent-carers reported reduced HRQoL and family functioning, 37% of parent-carers screened positive for anxiety/depression. Relationships exist between CYP participation and HRQoL and parental HRQoL and family functioning. Goals were overwhelmingly activity and participation focused. Participants described the global impact of an ABI on the CYP and family as well as the additional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on CYP and family wellbeing. CONCLUSION: ABI significantly impacts CYP participation and both CYP and parent-carer wellbeing in the long-term, potentially further impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Rehabilitation interventions should address both participation and the psychological wellbeing of CYP with ABI and their parent-carers.

Disease monitoring using lung function trajectory in lymphangioleiomyomatosis: assessment in two national cohorts.

STUDY QUESTION: In lymphangioleiomyomatosis, airflow obstruction and impairment of gas transfer progress at variable rates and serial lung function is recommended for disease monitoring. As these measurements are variable, recognising subjects needing treatment can be difficult. We used two prospective national cohorts to study change over time and variation in FEV1 to inform clinical decision making. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Clinical and lung function data for 141 UK and 148 American subjects were studied. Multilevel mixed effects modelling, route mean square analysis of errors and Bland-Altman analysis were used to analyse variability in lung function over time. RESULTS: At baseline assessment, DLCO was reduced to a greater degree than FEV1. In untreated patients, FEV1 and DLCO declined at proportionately similar rates independent of initial lung function. In mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitor treated patients, FEV1 stabilised but DLCO continued to decline. FEV1/DLCO per cent predicted ratio was 1.37 (0.43) at baseline and increased to 1.41 (0.50) after 42 (24) months (p=0.0002). At least five measurements were required before >70% of individuals had estimates of rate of FEV1 loss within 50 mL/year and DLCO loss within 0.1 mmol/min/kPa/year of the final values. CONCLUSIONS: While FEV1 and DLCO fall proportionately in most, in early disease and during mTOR inhibitor treatment, DLCO should also be monitored as it may fall independent of FEV1. Since at least five observations over many months are required to make confident estimates of FEV1 and DLCO trajectories, new strategies are needed to measure disease activity and target early treatment appropriately.

Mediators of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD): systematic review and meta-analyses.

Systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) is rare, poorly understood, with heterogeneous characteristics resulting in difficult diagnosis. We aimed to systematically review evidence of soluble markers in peripheral blood or bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) as biomarkers in SSc-ILD. METHOD: Five databases were screened for observational or interventional, peer-reviewed studies in adults published between January 2000 and September 2021 that assessed levels of biomarkers in peripheral blood or BALF of SSc-ILD patients compared with healthy controls. Qualitative assessment was performed using Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklists. Standardised mean difference (SMD) in biomarkers were combined in random-effects meta-analyses where multiple independent studies reported quantitative data. RESULTS: 768 published studies were identified; 38 articles were included in the qualitative synthesis. Thirteen studies were included in the meta-analyses representing three biomarkers: KL6, SP-D and IL-8. Greater IL-8 levels were associated with SSc-ILD in both peripheral blood and BALF, overall SMD 0.88 (95% CI 0.61 to 1.15; I2=1%). Greater levels of SP-D and KL-6 were both estimated in SSc-ILD peripheral blood compared with healthy controls, at an SMD of 1.78 (95% CI 1.50 to 2.17; I2=8%) and 1.66 (95% CI 1.17 to 2.14; I2=76%), respectively. CONCLUSION: We provide robust evidence that KL-6, SP-D and IL-8 have the potential to serve as reliable biomarkers in blood/BALF for supporting the diagnosis of SSc-ILD. However, while several other biomarkers have been proposed, the evidence of their independent value in diagnosis and prognosis is currently lacking and needs further investigation. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021282452.

Parenchymal lung abnormalities following hospitalisation for COVID-19 and viral pneumonitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Persisting respiratory symptoms in COVID-19 survivors may be related to development of pulmonary fibrosis. We assessed the proportion of chest CT scans and pulmonary function tests consistent with parenchymal lung disease in the follow-up of people hospitalised with COVID-19 and viral pneumonitis. METHODS: Systematic review and random effects meta-analysis of proportions using studies of adults hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV or influenza pneumonia and followed up within 12 months. Searches performed in MEDLINE and Embase. Primary outcomes were proportion of radiological sequelae on CT scans; restrictive impairment; impaired gas transfer. Heterogeneity was explored in meta-regression. RESULTS: Ninety-five studies (98.9% observational) were included in qualitative synthesis, 70 were suitable for meta-analysis including 60 SARS-CoV-2 studies with a median follow-up of 3 months. In SARS-CoV-2, the overall estimated proportion of inflammatory sequelae was 50% during follow-up (0.50; 95% CI 0.41 to 0.58; I2=95%), fibrotic sequelae were estimated in 29% (0.29; 95% CI 0.22 to 0.37; I2=94.1%). Follow-up time was significantly associated with estimates of inflammatory sequelae (-0.036; 95% CI -0.068 to -0.004; p=0.029), associations with fibrotic sequelae did not reach significance (-0.021; 95% CI -0.051 to 0.009; p=0.176). Impaired gas transfer was estimated at 38% of lung function tests (0.38 95% CI 0.32 to 0.44; I2=92.1%), which was greater than restrictive impairment (0.17; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.23; I2=92.5%), neither were associated with follow-up time (p=0.207; p=0.864). DISCUSSION: Sequelae consistent with parenchymal lung disease were observed following COVID-19 and other viral pneumonitis. Estimates should be interpreted with caution due to high heterogeneity, differences in study casemix and initial severity. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020183139.

Phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitor treatment and survival in interstitial lung disease pulmonary hypertension: A Bayesian retrospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Pulmonary hypertension is a life-limiting complication of interstitial lung disease (ILD-PH). We investigated whether treatment with phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitors (PDE5i) in patients with ILD-PH was associated with improved survival. METHODS: Consecutive incident patients with ILD-PH and right heart catheterisation, echocardiography and spirometry data were followed from diagnosis to death, transplantation or censoring with all follow-up and survival data modelled by Bayesian methods. RESULTS: The diagnoses in 128 patients were idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (n = 74, 58%), hypersensitivity pneumonitis (n = 17, 13%), non-specific interstitial pneumonia (n = 12, 9%), undifferentiated ILD (n = 8, 6%) and other lung diseases (n = 17, 13%). Final outcomes were death (n = 106, 83%), transplantation (n = 9, 7%) and censoring (n = 13, 10%). Patients treated with PDE5i (n = 50, 39%) had higher mean pulmonary artery pressure (median 38 mm Hg [interquartile range, IQR: 34, 43] vs. 35 mm Hg [IQR: 31, 38], p = 0.07) and percentage predicted forced vital capacity (FVC; median 57% [IQR: 51, 73] vs. 52% [IQR: 45, 66], p=0.08) though differences did not reach significance. Patients treated with PDE5i survived longer than untreated patients (median 2.18 years [95% CI: 1.43, 3.04] vs. 0.94 years [0.69, 1.51], p = 0.003) independent of all other prognostic markers by Bayesian joint-modelling (HR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.59, p < 0.001) and propensity-matched analyses (HR 0.38, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.58, p < 0.001). Survival difference with treatment was significantly larger if right ventricular function was normal, rather than abnormal, at presentation (+2.55 years, 95% CI: -0.03, +3.97 vs. +0.98 years, 95% CI: +0.47, +2.00, p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: PDE5i treatment in ILD-PH should be investigated by a prospective randomized trial.

Three-Month FVC Change: A Trial Endpoint for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Based on Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis.

Rationale: Novel therapies for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) are in development, but there remains uncertainty about the optimal trial endpoint. An earlier endpoint would enable assessment of a greater number of therapies in adaptive trial designs. Objectives: To determine whether short-term changes in FVC, DlCO, and six-minute-walk distance could act as surrogate endpoints to accelerate early-phase trials in IPF. Methods: Individual participant data (IPD) from IPF clinical trials were included in a two-step random-effects meta-analysis to determine whether baseline or 3-month changes in FVC, DlCO, and 6-minute-walk distance were associated with mortality or disease progression in placebo arms. Three-month and 12-month FVC decline endpoints were compared with treatment arm data from antifibrotic studies by meta-regression. Measurements and Main Results: IPD were available from 12 placebo cohorts totaling 1,819 participants, with baseline and 3-month changes in all physiological variables independently associated with poorer outcomes. Treatment data were available from six cohorts with 1,684 participants. For each 2.5% relative decline in FVC over 3 months, there was an associated 15% (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.24; I2 = 59.4%) and 20% (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.12-1.28; I2 = 18.0%) increased risk for mortality in untreated and treated individuals, respectively. An FVC change treatment effect was observed between treatment and placebo arms at 3 months (difference in FVC change of 42.9 ml; 95% CI, 24.0-61.8 ml; P < 0.001). Conclusions: IPD meta-analysis demonstrated that 3-month changes in physiological variables, particularly FVC, were associated with mortality among individuals with IPF. FVC change over 3 months may hold potential as a surrogate endpoint in IPF adaptive trials.

A systematic review of blood biomarkers with individual participant data meta-analysis of matrix metalloproteinase-7 in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Blood-derived biomarkers have been described extensively as potential prognostic markers in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but studies have been limited by analyses using data-dependent thresholds, inconsistent adjustment for confounders and an array of end-points, thus often yielding ungeneralisable results. Meta-analysis of individual participant data (IPD) is a powerful tool to overcome these limitations. Through systematic review of blood-derived biomarkers, sufficient studies with measurements of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-7 were identified to facilitate standardised analyses of the prognostic potential of this biomarker in IPF. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched on 12 November 2020 to identify prospective studies reporting outcomes in patients with untreated IPF, stratified according to at least one pre-specified biomarker, measured at either baseline, or change over 3 months. IPD were sought for studies investigating MMP-7 as a prognostic factor. The primary outcome was overall mortality according to standardised MMP-7 z-scores, with a secondary outcome of disease progression in 12 months, all adjusted for age, gender, smoking and baseline forced vital capacity. RESULTS: IPD was available for nine studies out of 12 identified, reporting outcomes from 1664 participants. Baseline MMP-7 levels were associated with increased mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.03-1.48; I2=64.3%) and disease progression (adjusted OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.11-1.46; I2=5.9%). In limited studies, 3-month change in MMP-7 was not associated with outcomes. CONCLUSION: IPD meta-analysis demonstrated that greater baseline MMP-7 levels were independently associated with an increased risk of poor outcomes in patients with untreated IPF, while short-term changes did not reflect disease progression.

Lysyl oxidase like 2 is increased in asthma and contributes to asthmatic airway remodelling.

BACKGROUND: Airway smooth muscle (ASM) cells are fundamental to asthma pathogenesis, influencing bronchoconstriction, airway hyperresponsiveness and airway remodelling. The extracellular matrix (ECM) can influence tissue remodelling pathways; however, to date no study has investigated the effect of ASM ECM stiffness and cross-linking on the development of asthmatic airway remodelling. We hypothesised that transforming growth factor-ß (TGF-ß) activation by ASM cells is influenced by ECM in asthma and sought to investigate the mechanisms involved. METHODS: This study combines in vitro and in vivo approaches: human ASM cells were used in vitro to investigate basal TGF-ß activation and expression of ECM cross-linking enzymes. Human bronchial biopsies from asthmatic and nonasthmatic donors were used to confirm lysyl oxidase like 2 (LOXL2) expression in ASM. A chronic ovalbumin (OVA) model of asthma was used to study the effect of LOXL2 inhibition on airway remodelling. RESULTS: We found that asthmatic ASM cells activated more TGF-ß basally than nonasthmatic controls and that diseased cell-derived ECM influences levels of TGF-ß activated. Our data demonstrate that the ECM cross-linking enzyme LOXL2 is increased in asthmatic ASM cells and in bronchial biopsies. Crucially, we show that LOXL2 inhibition reduces ECM stiffness and TGF-ß activation in vitro, and can reduce subepithelial collagen deposition and ASM thickness, two features of airway remodelling, in an OVA mouse model of asthma. CONCLUSION: These data are the first to highlight a role for LOXL2 in the development of asthmatic airway remodelling and suggest that LOXL2 inhibition warrants further investigation as a potential therapy to reduce remodelling of the airways in severe asthma.

Biomarker signatures for progressive idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive lung disease in which circulatory biomarkers have the potential for guiding management in clinical practice. We assessed the prognostic role of serum biomarkers in three independent IPF cohorts: Australian Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Registry (AIPFR), Trent Lung Fibrosis (TLF) and Prospective Observation of Fibrosis in the Lung Clinical Endpoints (PROFILE). METHODS: In the AIPFR cohort, candidate proteins were assessed by ELISA as well as in an unbiased proteomic approach. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression was used to restrict the selection of markers that best accounted for the progressor phenotype at 1 year in the AIPFR cohort, and subsequently prospectively selected for replication in the validation TLF cohort and assessed retrospectively in the PROFILE cohort. Four significantly replicating biomarkers were aggregated into a progression index model based on tertiles of circulating concentrations. RESULTS: 189 participants were included in the AIPFR cohort, 205 participants from the TLF cohort and 122 participants from the PROFILE cohort. Differential biomarker expression was observed by ELISA and replicated for osteopontin, matrix metallopeptidase-7, intercellular adhesion molecule-1 and periostin for those with a progressor phenotype at 1 year. Proteomic data did not replicate. The progression index in the AIPFR, TLF and PROFILE cohorts predicted risk of progression, mortality and progression-free survival. A statistical model incorporating the progression index demonstrated the capacity to distinguish disease progression at 12 months, which was increased beyond the clinical GAP (gender, age and physiology) score model alone in all cohorts, and significantly so within the incidence-based TLF and PROFILE cohorts. CONCLUSION: A panel of circulatory biomarkers can provide potentially valuable clinical assistance in the prognosis of IPF patients.

Using patient experiences to evaluate care and expectations in lung cancer: analysis of the English Cancer Patient Experience Survey linked with the national cancer registry.

PURPOSE: Identification of unmet needs in person centred and supportive care could be limited by differences in experience across specific cancer populations. Using the experiences of people with lung cancer, we assess distinctions according to demographic and clinical characteristics. METHODS: The English Cancer Patient Experience Survey was linked to the national cancer registry. The primary outcome was experience of the lung cancer pathway when assessed in multi-question models developed with item response theory. Secondary outcomes were experience by treatment received and in separate dimensions of the care pathway: up to diagnosis, treatment information, and staff support. RESULTS: Responses from 15,967 adults with a lung cancer diagnosis between 2009 and 2015 were included. Positive experiences were more likely to be reported by people aged between 65 and 80 (adjusted coefficient 0.08, 95%CI 0.05;0.11), those living in the most deprived areas (adjusted coefficient 0.10, 95%CI 0.05;0.14), diagnosed at lung cancer stage IIA-B (adjusted coefficient 0.09, 95%CI 0.04;0.14), and those diagnosed through inpatient elective admissions (adjusted coefficient 0.17, 95%CI 0.07;0.28). Specific experiences differed across dimensions of care and within lung cancer treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: Experiences differed according to gender and ethnicity, supporting previous observations in cancer. In contrast to previous studies, people with lung cancer were more likely to report positive pathway experiences at older ages, living in more deprived areas, or diagnosed after stage I, all frequently associated with worse clinical outcomes. The distinct observations in lung cancer specific analyses suggest potential unmet needs, such as in early stage disease and younger age groups.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of anakinra, sarilumab, siltuximab and tocilizumab for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: There is accumulating evidence for an overly activated immune response in severe COVID-19, with several studies exploring the therapeutic role of immunomodulation. Through systematic review and meta-analysis, we assess the effectiveness of specific interleukin inhibitors for the treatment of COVID-19. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched on 7 January 2021 to identify studies of immunomodulatory agents (anakinra, sarilumab, siltuximab and tocilizumab) for the treatment of COVID-19. The primary outcomes were severity on an Ordinal Scale measured at day 15 from intervention and days to hospital discharge. Key secondary endpoints included overall mortality. RESULTS: 71 studies totalling 22 058 patients were included, 6 were randomised trials. Most studies explored outcomes in patients who received tocilizumab (60/71). In prospective studies, tocilizumab was associated with improved unadjusted survival (risk ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.96, I2=0.0%), but conclusive benefit was not demonstrated for other outcomes. In retrospective studies, tocilizumab was associated with less severe outcomes on an Ordinal Scale (generalised OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.64, I2=98%) and adjusted mortality risk (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.66, I2=76.6%). The mean difference in duration of hospitalisation was 0.36 days (95% CI -0.07 to 0.80, I2=93.8%). There was substantial heterogeneity in retrospective studies, and estimates should be interpreted cautiously. Other immunomodulatory agents showed similar effects to tocilizumab, but insufficient data precluded meta-analysis by agent. CONCLUSION: Tocilizumab was associated with a lower relative risk of mortality in prospective studies, but effects were inconclusive for other outcomes. Current evidence for the efficacy of anakinra, siltuximab or sarilumab in COVID-19 is insufficient, with further studies urgently needed for conclusive findings. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020176375.

Precision Global Determination of the B→X_{s}γ Decay Rate.

We perform the first global fit to inclusive B→X_{s}γ measurements using a model-independent treatment of the nonperturbative b-quark distribution function, with next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic resummation and O(α_{s}^{2}) fixed-order contributions. The normalization of the B→X_{s}γ decay rate, given by |C_{7}^{incl}V_{tb}V_{ts}^{*}|^{2}, is sensitive to physics beyond the standard model (SM). We determine |C_{7}^{incl}V_{tb}V_{ts}^{*}|=(14.77±0.51_{fit}±0.59_{theory}±0.08_{param})×10^{-3}, in good agreement with the SM prediction, and the b-quark mass m_{b}^{1S}=(4.750±0.027_{fit}±0.033_{theory}±0.003_{param}) GeV. Our results suggest that the uncertainties in the extracted B→X_{s}γ rate have been underestimated by up to a factor of 2, leaving more room for beyond-SM contributions.

Outcomes for children with acquired brain injury (ABI) admitted to acute neurorehabilitation.

AIM: To evaluate an innovative paediatric neurorehabilitation model in relation to improving quality of neurorehabilitation and reducing length of stay (LOS) for children with acquired brain injury. METHOD: A process evaluation approach was conducted in line with Medical Research Council evaluation of complex interventions guidance. Analysis was conducted on routinely collected patient data from 2017 to 2018, including LOS and family feedback. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for quantitative analysis and qualitative data was analysed thematically. RESULTS: Outcomes for 70 children (0-16y, median age 5y, IQR 1-11y, 46 males, 24 females) referred to the service indicated improved function and reduced complexity of need. The mean LOS was 10.6 days compared to baseline mean LOS of 41 days (2011-2012). High satisfaction from the families was recorded; however, ongoing needs and service gaps regarding long-term support were identified. INTERPRETATION: This service model is effective in delivering quality paediatric neurorehabilitation, demonstrating a sustained impact on LOS, and positive patient outcome data and family feedback for this group of patients. What this paper adds Investment in early intensive neurorehabilitation and supported discharge impacts length of stay (LOS) for children with acquired brain injury. Early intensive neurorehabilitation and supported discharge is effective. This is demonstrated by a sustained reduction in LOS, positive patient outcomes, and family feedback.

A low exhaled nitric oxide level excludes a short-term benefit from inhaled corticosteroids in suspected asthma: A randomized placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) is a non-invasive biomarker that reflects IL-4/IL-13 production and therefore represents T2 allergic inflammation. FeNO has previously been used to guide inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) treatment in asthma. The purpose of this study was to determine if a low FeNO (≤27 ppb) could be used to reliably identify patients with symptoms suggestive of asthma who would not benefit from initiating treatment with an ICS. METHODS: A total of 180 steroid-naïve adults with healthcare professional suspected asthma and an FeNO of ≤27 ppb were randomized to receive either 400 mcg of budesonide or placebo daily for 3 months. The primary outcome was the difference in the Asthma Control Questionnaire 7 (ACQ7) between treatment groups and the study was powered to determine equivalence. Secondary outcomes were the difference in FEV1 , Medical Research Council and Leicester Cough Questionnaire scores. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-four patients (68 budesonide and 66 placebo) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The between-group mean difference in ACQ7 from baseline to the end of the study was -0.25 and the 95% CI around this difference was -0.004 to 0.495 confirming equivalence (p < 0.05). Differences in forced expiratory volume over 1 s and other secondary outcomes were also small and clinically unimportant. CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that steroid-naïve patients with symptoms suggestive of asthma and an FeNO ≤ 27 ppb are unlikely to benefit from initiating treatment with an ICS over 3 months. However, further research is recommended to confirm these findings before withholding ICS treatment.

Development and Reporting of Prediction Models: Guidance for Authors From Editors of Respiratory, Sleep, and Critical Care Journals.

Prediction models aim to use available data to predict a health state or outcome that has not yet been observed. Prediction is primarily relevant to clinical practice, but is also used in research, and administration. While prediction modeling involves estimating the relationship between patient factors and outcomes, it is distinct from casual inference. Prediction modeling thus requires unique considerations for development, validation, and updating. This document represents an effort from editors at 31 respiratory, sleep, and critical care medicine journals to consolidate contemporary best practices and recommendations related to prediction study design, conduct, and reporting. Herein, we address issues commonly encountered in submissions to our various journals. Key topics include considerations for selecting predictor variables, operationalizing variables, dealing with missing data, the importance of appropriate validation, model performance measures and their interpretation, and good reporting practices. Supplemental discussion covers emerging topics such as model fairness, competing risks, pitfalls of "modifiable risk factors", measurement error, and risk for bias. This guidance is not meant to be overly prescriptive; we acknowledge that every study is different, and no set of rules will fit all cases. Additional best practices can be found in the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, to which we refer readers for further details.