Rationale and study design of the GOREISAN for heart failure (GOREISAN-HF) trial: A randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The decongestion strategy using loop diuretics is essential for improving signs and symptoms of heart failure (HF). However, chronic use of loop diuretics in HF has been linked to worsening renal function and adverse clinical outcomes in a dose-dependent manner. Goreisan, a traditional Japanese herbal medicine, has a long history of use in Japan for regulating body fluid homeostasis and has been recognized as causing less adverse outcomes such as dehydration in contrast to loop diuretics in clinical practice. Therefore, we designed the GOREISAN-HF trial to evaluate the long-term effects of a new decongestion strategy adding Goreisan to usual care in patients with HF and volume overload. METHODS: The GOREISAN-HF trial is an investigator-initiated, multicenter, pragmatic, randomized, comparative effectiveness trial in which we will enroll 2,192 patients hospitalized for HF at 68 hospitals in Japan. All study participants will be randomly assigned to either a decongestion strategy that adds Goreisan at a dose of 7.5 g daily on top of usual care or usual care alone. Investigators have the flexibility to change the existing diuretic regimen in both groups. The primary end point is the improvement rate of cardiac edema at 12-month follow-up, and the co-primary end point is a composite of all-cause death or hospitalization up to the end of the planned follow-up period. Secondary end points include longitudinal changes in patient-reported outcomes, loop diuretics dose, and renal function. CONCLUSIONS: The GOREISAN-HF is the first large-scale randomized pragmatic trial to assess the efficacy and safety of a new congestion control strategy adding Goreisan to usual care in patients with HF and volume overload. REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04691700.

Prognostic Value of the Severity of Clinical Congestion in Patients Hospitalized for Decompensated Heart Failure: Findings From the Japanese KCHF Registry.

BACKGROUND: Congestion is a leading cause of hospitalization and a major therapeutic target in patients with heart failure (HF). Clinical practice in Japan is characterized by a long hospital stay, which facilitates more extensive decongestion during hospitalization. We herein examined the time course and prognostic impact of clinical congestion in a large contemporary Japanese cohort of HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Peripheral edema, jugular venous pressure, and orthopnea were graded on a standardized 4-point scale (0-3) in 3787 hospitalized patients in a Japanese cohort of HF. Composite Congestion Scores (CCS) on admission and at discharge were calculated by summing individual scores. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization. The median admission CCS was 4 (interquartile range, 3-6). Overall, 255 patients died during the median hospitalization length of 16 days, and 1395 died or were hospitalized for HF over a median postdischarge follow-up of 396 days. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome increased at higher tertiles of congestion on admission (32.5%, 39.3%, and 41.0% in the mild [CCS ≤3], moderate [CCS = 4 or 5], and severe [CCS ≥6] congestion groups, respectively, log-rank P < .001). The adjusted hazard ratios of moderate and severe congestion relative to mild congestion were 1.205 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.065-1.365; P = .003) and 1.247 (95% CI, 1.103-1.410; P < .001), respectively. Among 3445 patients discharged alive, 85% had CCS of 0 (complete decongestion) and 15% had a CCS of 1 or more (residual congestion) at discharge. Although residual congestion predicted a risk of postdischarge death or HF hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.314 [1.145-1.509]; P < .001), the admission CCS correlated with the risk of postdischarge death or HF hospitalization, even in the complete decongestion group. No correlation was observed for postdischarge death or HF hospitalization between residual congestion at discharge and admission CCS (P for the interaction = .316). CONCLUSIONS: In total, 85% of patients were discharged with complete decongestion in Japanese clinical practice. Clinical congestion, on admission and at discharge, was of prognostic value. The severity of congestion on admission was predictive of adverse outcomes, even in the absence of residual congestion. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02334891 (NCT02334891) https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017241 (UMIN000015238).

Risk stratification of patients with cardiac sarcoidosis: the ILLUMINATE-CS registry.

AIMS: This study evaluated the prognosis and prognostic factors of patients with cardiac sarcoidosis (CS), an underdiagnosed disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients from a retrospective multicentre registry, diagnosed with CS between 2001 and 2017 based on the 2016 Japanese Circulation Society or 2014 Heart Rhythm Society criteria, were included. The primary endpoint was a composite of all-cause death, hospitalization for heart failure, and documented fatal ventricular arrhythmia events (FVAE), each constituting exploratory endpoints. Among 512 registered patients, 148 combined events (56 heart failure hospitalizations, 99 documented FVAE, and 49 all-cause deaths) were observed during a median follow-up of 1042 (interquartile range: 518-1917) days. The 10-year estimated event rates for the primary endpoint, all-cause death, heart failure hospitalizations, and FVAE were 48.1, 18.0, 21.1, and 31.9%, respectively. On multivariable Cox regression, a history of ventricular tachycardia (VT) or fibrillation [hazard ratio (HR) 2.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.59-4.00, P < 0.001], log-transformed brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.07-1.53, P = 0.008), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (HR 0.94 per 5% increase, 95% CI 0.88-1.00, P = 0.046), and post-diagnosis radiofrequency ablation for VT (HR 2.65, 95% CI 1.02-6.86, P = 0.045) independently predicted the primary endpoint. CONCLUSION: Although mortality is relatively low in CS, adverse events are common, mainly due to FVAE. Patients with low LVEF, with high BNP levels, with VT/fibrillation history, and requiring ablation to treat VT are at high risk.

Polypharmacy and Clinical Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy is a common problem among patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) who often have multiple comorbidities. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to define the number of medications at hospital discharge and whether it is associated with clinical outcomes at 1 year. METHODS: We evaluated the number of medications in 2578 patients with ADHF who were ambulatory at hospital discharge in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure Registry and compared 1-year outcomes in 4 groups categorized by quartiles of the number of medications (quartile 1, ≤ 5; quartile 2, 6-8; quartile 3, 9-11; and quartile 4, ≥ 12). RESULTS: At hospital discharge, the median number of medications was 8 (interquartile range, 6-11) with 81.5% and 27.8% taking more than 5 and more than 10 medications, respectively. The cumulative 1-year incidence of a composite of death or rehospitalization (primary outcome measure) increased incrementally with an increasing number of medications (quartile 1, 30.8%; quartile 2, 31.6%; quartile 3, 39.7%; quartile 4, 50.3%; P < .0001). After adjusting for confounders, the excess risks of quartile 4 relative to those of quartile 1 remained significant ( P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: In the contemporary cohort of patients with ADHF in Japan, polypharmacy at hospital discharge was common, and excessive polypharmacy was associated with a higher risk of mortality and rehospitalizations within a 1-year period. Collaborative disease management programs that include a careful review of medication lists and an appropriate deprescribing protocol should be implemented for these patients.

Starting Neurohormonal Antagonists in Patients With Acute Heart Failure With Mid-Range and Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: The clinical benefits of neurohormonal antagonists for patients with heart failure (HF) with mid-range and preserved ejection fraction (HFmrEF and HFpEF) are uncertain.Methods and Results: This study analyzed 858 consecutive patients with HFmrEF (EF: 40-49%) or HFpEF (EF ≥50%), who were hospitalized for acute HF, and who were discharged alive, and were not taking angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE)-I/ angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB) or ß-blockers at admission. The study population was classified into 4 groups according to the status of prescription of ACE-I/ARB and ß-blocker at discharge: no neurohormonal antagonist (n=342, 39.9%), ACE-I/ARB only (n=128, 14.9%), ß-blocker only (n=189, 22.0%), and both ACE-I/ARB and ß-blocker (n=199, 23.2%) groups. The primary outcome measure was a composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome measure was 41.2% in the no neurohormonal antagonist group, 34.0% in the ACE-I/ARB only group, 28.6% in the ß-blocker only group, and 16.4% in the both ACE-I/ARB and ß-blocker group (P<0.001). Compared with the no neurohormonal antagonist group, both the ACE-I/ARB and ß-blocker groups were associated with a significantly lower risk for a composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization (HR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.28-0.76, P=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: In hospitalized patients with HFmrEF and HFpEF, starting both ACE-I/ARB and a ß-blocker was associated with a reduced risk of the composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization compared with patients not starting on an ACE-I/ARB or ß-blocker.

Occurrence of right ventricular dysfunction immediately after pericardiocentesis.

The changes in cardiac function that occur after pericardiocentesis are unclear. An understanding of the effect of pericardiocentesis on right ventricular (RV) and left ventricular (LV) function is clinically important. This study was performed to assess RV and LV function with echocardiography before and after pericardiocentesis. In total, 19 consecutive patients who underwent pericardiocentesis for more than moderate pericardial effusion were prospectively enrolled from August 2015 to October 2017. Comprehensive transthoracic echocardiography was performed before, immediately after (within 3 h), and 1 day after pericardiocentesis to investigate the changes in RV and LV function. The mean age of all patients was 72.6 ± 12.2 years. No pericardiocentesis-related complications occurred during the procedure, but one patient died of right heart failure 8 h after pericardiocentesis. After pericardiocentesis, RV inflow and outflow diameters increased (p < 0.05 versus values before pericardiocentesis), and the parameters of RV function (tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion, tricuspid lateral annular systolic velocity, fractional area change, and RV free wall longitudinal strain) significantly decreased (p < 0.001 versus values before pericardiocentesis). These abnormal values or RV dysfunction remained 1 day after pericardiocentesis (p > 0.05 versus values immediately after pericardiocentesis). Conversely, no parameters of LV function changed after pericardiocentesis. Of 19 patients, 13 patients showed RV dysfunction immediately after pericardiocentesis and 6 patients did not. RV free wall longitudinal strain before pericardiocentesis in patients with post-procedural RV dysfunction was reduced compared to those without post-procedural RV dysfunction ( - 18.9 ± 3.6 versus - 28.4 ± 6.3%; p = 0.005). The area under the curve values for prediction of post-procedural RV dysfunction was 0.910 for RV free wall longitudinal strain. The occurrence of RV dysfunction after pericardiocentesis should be given more attention, and pre-procedural RV free wall longitudinal strain may be a predictor of post-procedural RV dysfunction.

Very long-term follow-up data of non-ischemic idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy after beta-blocker therapy: recurrence of left ventricular dysfunction and predictive value of 123I-metaiodobenzylguanidine scintigraphy.

The management of idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is well established. However, a subset of patients do not have recovery from or have recurrences of left ventricular (LV) dysfunction despite receiving optimal medical therapy. There are limited long-term follow-up data about LV function and the predictive value of iodine-123-metaiodobenzylguanidine (123I-MIBG) scintigraphy, especially among the Japanese population. We retrospectively investigated 81 consecutive patients with DCM (mean LV ejection fraction (EF) 28 ± 7.5%) who had undergone 123I-MIBG scintigraphy before starting ß-blockers. According to chronological changes in LVEF, study patients were classified into three subgroups: sustained recovery group, recurrence group, and non-recovery group. The outcome measure was cardiac death. Mean age was 59 ± 11 years and median follow-up was 11.5 (5.8-15.0) years. Thirty-six patients had recovery, 11 had recurrences, and 34 did not have recovery. The sustained recovery group had the best cardiac death-free survival, followed by the recurrence and non-recovery groups. Prolonged time to initial recovery was associated with recurrence of LV dysfunction. Large LV end-diastolic diameter and reduced heart to mediastinum ratio were associated with poor prognosis. In conclusion, with ß-blocker therapy, 14% of patients showed recurrences of LV dysfunction. Thus, careful follow-up is needed, keeping in mind the possibility of recurrence, even if LVEF once improved, especially in patients whose time to initial recovery was long. 123I-MIBG scintigraphy provides clinicians with additional prognostic information.

Demographics, Management, and In-Hospital Outcome of Hospitalized Acute Heart Failure Syndrome Patients in Contemporary Real Clinical Practice in Japan　- Observations From the Prospective, Multicenter Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure (KCHF) Registry.

BACKGROUND: There is a scarcity of reports on the clinical characteristics and management practice in contemporary all-comer patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). Methods and Results: The Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure (KCHF) registry is a prospective observational cohort study enrolling 4,056 consecutive patients who had hospital admission due to ADHF without any exclusion criteria between October 2014 and March 2016 in the 19 participating hospitals in Japan. Baseline characteristics, clinical presentations, management, and in-hospital outcomes were compared between heart failure (HF) with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF; HFrEF, LVEF <40%), HF with mid-range LVEF (HFmrEF, LVEF 40-49%), and HF with preserved LVEF (HFpEF, LVEF ≥50%). Of the 4,041 patients with documented LVEF, 1,744 (43%) had HFpEF; 746 (19%), HFmrEF; and 1,551 (38%), HFrEF. The median age was 80 years (IQR, 72-86 years) in the entire population, and was higher with increasing LVEF (P<0.001). The in-hospital mortality rate was higher in the HFrEF than in the HFmrEF and HFpEF groups (9.2%, 4.8%, and 5.1%, respectively, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This registry elucidated the clinical features and clinically relevant in-hospital outcomes in contemporary consecutive patients with ADHF in real-world clinical practice in Japan. When classified by LVEF, significant differences in characteristics and in-hospital outcomes existed between patients with HFrEF, HFmrEF, and HFpEF.

Relationship between left ventricular diastolic dysfunction and very late recurrences after multiple procedures for atrial fibrillation ablation.

Although very late recurrences (VLRs) (first recurrence >12 months after the last catheter ablation) of atrial fibrillation (AF) after multiple catheter ablation procedures are rare, it remains a critical issue. The risk factors for VLRs remain largely unclear. From December 2011 to April 2014, 253 patients underwent an initial catheter ablation. Of the 253 patients, 21 had AF recurrences within 1 year after the last catheter ablation. The study was conducted in the remaining 232 patients. Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) was assessed by echocardiography using composite categories with tissue Doppler imaging and left atrial volume measurements, i.e., a septal e' < 8 cm/s, lateral e' < 10 cm/s, and left atrium volume index (LAV/body surface area) (LAVI) ≥34 mL/m2. LVDD was observed in 40 patients. Sinus rhythm was preserved in 220 patients after multiple catheter procedures, and 12 had VLRs. The clinical factors possibly related to VLRs were examined, and a multivariate regression analysis showed that LVDD was the only independent risk factor for VLRs (hazard ratio: 10.31, 95% confidence interval: 2.78-38.18, P < 0.0001). LVDD at baseline is a risk factor for a VLR after multiple catheter ablation procedures for AF.

Long-Term Clinical Outcomes and Prognostic Factors After Pericardiectomy for Constrictive Pericarditis in a Japanese Population.

BACKGROUND: Constrictive pericarditis (CP) is characterized by impaired diastolic cardiac function leading to heart failure. Pericardiectomy is considered effective treatment for CP, but data on long-term clinical outcomes after pericardiectomy are limited.Methods and Results:We retrospectively investigated 45 consecutive patients (mean age, 59±14 years) who underwent pericardiectomy for CP. Preoperative clinical factors, parameters of cardiac catheterization, and cardiac events were examined. Cardiac events were defined as hospitalization owing to heart failure or cardiac death.Median follow-up was 5.7 years. CP etiology was idiopathic in 16 patients, post-cardiac surgery (CS) in 21, tuberculosis-related in 4, non-tuberculosis infection-related in 2, infarction-related in 1, and post-radiation in 1. The 5-year event-free survival was 65%. Patients with idiopathic CP and tuberculosis-related CP had favorable outcomes compared with post-CS CP (5-year event-free survival: idiopathic, 80%; tuberculosis, 100%; post-CS, 52%). Higher age (hazard ratio: 2.51), preoperative atrial fibrillation (3.25), advanced New York Heart Association class (3.92), and increased pulmonary artery pressure (1.06) were predictors of cardiac events. Patients with postoperative right-atrial pressure ≥9 mmHg had lower event-free survival than those with right-atrial pressure <9 mmHg (39% vs. 75% at 5 years, P=0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term clinical outcomes after pericardiectomy among a Japanese population were related to the underlying etiology and the patient's preoperative clinical condition. Postoperative cardiac catheterization may be helpful in the prediction of prognosis after pericardiectomy.

Pre- and Postoperative Predictors of Long-Term Prognosis After Aortic Valve Replacement for Severe Chronic Aortic Regurgitation.

BACKGROUND: There are few data on the long-term prognosis and chronological changes in left ventricular (LV) function after aortic valve replacement (AVR) in patients with severe chronic aortic regurgitation (AR) among the Japanese population.Methods and Results:We retrospectively investigated the long-term prognosis in 80 consecutive patients with severe chronic AR who underwent AVR. Additionally, 65 patients with follow-up echocardiography at 1 year after AVR were investigated to evaluate chronological changes in LV function. The mean follow-up period was 8.9±5.2 years. Freedom from all-cause death and cardiac death at 10 years after AVR was 76% and 91%, respectively. The preoperative ejection fraction (EF) and estimated glomerular filtration rate were independent predictors of all-cause death. Preoperative EF, LV end-systolic diameter, and diabetes might be useful predictors of cardiac death. Among the 65 patients with follow-up echocardiographic data, LV function had normalized at 1 year after AVR in all patients, except for 2 who died of cardiac causes in the long-term after AVR. LV end-diastolic diameter, LV end-systolic diameter, and EF at 1 year after AVR might be useful predictors of long-term cardiac death. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with severe chronic AR, preoperative LV dysfunction is remarkably improved at 1 year after AVR. Pre- and postoperative echocardiographic data are important for predicting long-term outcome after AVR. (Circ J 2016; 80: 2460-2467).

Predictors of Rapid Progression and Clinical Outcome of Asymptomatic Severe Aortic Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: The optimal timing of aortic valve replacement (AVR) is controversial in patients with asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis (AS) except when very severe. Prediction of progression of severe AS is helpful in deciding on the timing of AVR. The purpose of this study was to clarify the predictors of progression rate and clinical outcomes of severe AS. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively investigated 140 consecutive patients with asymptomatic severe AS (aortic valve area [AVA], 0.75-1.0 cm(2)). First-year progression rate and annual progression rate of AVA and of aortic jet velocity (AV-Vel) were calculated. Cardiac events were examined and the predictors of rapid progression and cardiac events were analyzed. The median follow-up period was 36 months. The median annual progression rate was -0.05 cm(2)/year for AVA and 0.22 m/s/year for AV-Vel. Dyslipidemia, moderate-severe calcification, and first-year AV-Vel progression ≥0.22 m/s/year were independent predictors of cardiac events. Cardiac event-free rate was lower in patients with AV-Vel first-year progression rate ≥0.22 m/s/year than in those with a lower rate. Diabetes and moderate-severe calcification were related to first-year rapid progression. CONCLUSIONS: The annual progression rate of severe AS was -0.05 cm(2)/year for AVA and 0.22 m/s/year for AV-Vel. Patients with first-year rapid progression or severely calcified aortic valve should be carefully observed while considering an early operation. (Circ J 2016; 80: 1863-1869).

Relationship between diastolic ventricular dysfunction and subclinical sleep-disordered breathing in atrial fibrillation ablation candidates.

Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is recognized as a primary factor or mediator of atrial fibrillation (AF). We hypothesized that the severity of SDB among AF ablation candidates would be associated with left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD) even for subclinical SDB. A total of 246 patients hospitalized for initial pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) were analyzed. Known SDB cases were excluded. We measured the oxygen desaturation index (ODI) by pulse oximetry overnight as an indicator of SDB, and classified SDB severity by 3 % ODI as normal (ODI < 5 events/h), mild (ODI ≤ 5 to <15 events/h), or moderate-to-severe (ODI ≥15 events/h). The LVDD was assessed by echocardiography using combined categories with tissue Doppler imaging and left atrial (LA) volume measurement. Among the participants, 42 patients (17.1 %) had LVDD. The prevalence of LVDD increased with the SDB severity from 8.6 % (normal) to 12.7 % (mild) to 40.0 % (moderate-to-severe SDB) (p < 0.0001). In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the odds ratio of having LVDD in the moderate-to-severe SDB group (ODI ≥ 15) vs. normal group (ODI < 5) was 5.96 (95 % CI, 2.10-19.00, P = 0.006). The presence of moderate-to-severe SDB in AF ablation candidates adversely affected LV diastolic function even during a subclinical state of SDB.

The Influence of Assay Selection on Prothrombin Time Measured in Patients Treated With Rivaroxaban for Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Prothrombin time (PT) can provide a qualitative assessment of the relative intensity of anticoagulation by rivaroxaban. More than ten types of assay are available for the measurement of PT in clinical settings, but it is not yet fully understood whether their interactions with rivaroxaban are uniform or inconsistent. METHODS: We examined 139 blood samples from patients taking rivaroxaban. We measured PT using five different commercially available assays. We also evaluated the estimated rivaroxaban concentration using a chromogenic anti-factor Xa assay. RESULTS: The median estimated concentration of rivaroxaban was 192 ng/ml (interquartile range 85-284 ng/ml). The correlation coefficient (r) between PT and the estimated concentrations of rivaroxaban was as follows: Thromborel S, r = 0.768; Thrombocheck PT, r = 0.861; Coagpia PT-N, r = 0.909; Neoplastin Plus, r = 0.882; and Triniclot PT Excel S, r = 0.870. The gradients of the regression plots differed more than fourfold, and the standard deviation of the regression line ranged from 1.001 to 2.980, which tended to be higher for the assays with the higher regression slope gradients. CONCLUSION: The estimated concentration of rivaroxaban varied greatly depending on the assay, so the PT measured in patients taking rivaroxaban should be interpreted with caution.

Prognostic value of E/e' ratio and its change over time in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction in the reperfusion era.

BACKGROUND: The ratio of early diastolic mitral inflow velocity to mitral annular velocity (E/e') is a prognostic factor in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, data are lacking on long-term outcomes and longitudinal changes in E/e' in patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in the reperfusion era. METHODS: This is a pre-specified echocardiographic substudy of a randomized controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of beta-blockers in STEMI patients with LVEF ≥40 % after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Patients were divided into 2 groups according to E/e' at discharge: ≤14 (normal E/e' group) or > 14 (high E/e' group). The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction, stroke, acute coronary syndrome, and heart failure hospitalization. We also assessed longitudinal changes in E/e' and conducted a landmark analysis using E/e' at 1 year after STEMI. RESULTS: There were 173 and 38 patients in the normal and high E/e' groups, respectively. During a median follow-up of 3.9 years, the primary outcome occurred in 19 patients (11.0 %) and 10 patients (26.3 %) in the normal and high E/e' groups, respectively. The cumulative incidence of the primary outcome was higher in the high E/e' group than in the normal E/e' group (21.9 % vs. 7.1 % at 3 years; log-rank p = 0.013). E/e' in the high E/e' group decreased over time (p < 0.001), but remained higher than in the normal E/e' group at 1 year after STEMI (13.7 ±â€¯5.3 vs. 8.6 ±â€¯2.3, p < 0.001). E/e' > 14 at 1 year was also associated with poor outcomes (log-rank p = 0.008). A sensitivity analysis using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models yielded consistent results. CONCLUSION: High E/e' at discharge is associated with poor long-term outcomes in STEMI patients with preserved LVEF after primary PCI, which may be explained by persistent high E/e' late after STEMI.

Importance of non-cardiovascular comorbidities in atrial fibrillation and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) are interlinked and frequently coexisting conditions. To date, patients with AF and HFpEF have limited evidence guiding their management. This study aimed to investigate the predictors of adverse outcomes among patients with AF and HFpEF. METHODS: The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. From the registry, we explored predictors for a composite of cardiac death or HF hospitalization among AF patients with HFpEF (defined as having a prior HF hospitalization or New York Heart Association class ≥2 in association with heart disease and left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50%). Besides, we investigated whether the scoring using the predictors identified by the Fushimi AF Registry could stratify the outcomes in patients with AF and HFpEF registered in another independent Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure Registry. RESULTS: Of 755 patients with AF and HFpEF [mean age: 77.5 ± 9.9 years; female: 391 (52%); paroxysmal AF: 258 (34%); and mean CHA2DS2-VASc score: 4.5 ± 1.5], cardiac death or HF hospitalization occurred in 246 patients (33%) during the median follow-up period of 4.4 years in the Fushimi AF Registry. Using multivariate Cox regression analysis, age ≥75 years [hazard ratio (HR): 1.72, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.26-2.36] and non-cardiovascular comorbidities such as anaemia (HR: 1.83, 95% CI: 1.37-2.46), chronic kidney disease (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.27-2.26), diabetes mellitus (HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.15-2.09) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR: 1.87, 95% CI: 1.08-3.22) were independent predictors of adverse outcomes. Meanwhile, cardiovascular comorbidities including coronary artery disease, valvular heart disease or cardiomyopathy were not significantly associated with adverse outcomes. These results were also the case when analysed for patients with AF and HFpEF who registered in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry (N = 878). The score assigning 1 point for each five predictors (age, anaemia, chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; ranging 0-5 points) stratified the incidence of adverse outcomes among patients with AF and HFpEF registered in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure Registry as well as among those in the Fushimi AF Registry (both log-rank; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Non-cardiovascular comorbidities such as anaemia, diabetes mellitus and kidney or pulmonary disease in addition to advanced age were independent predictors of adverse outcomes in patients with AF and HFpEF. Our study suggests the importance of focusing on these non-cardiovascular comorbidities for individualized risk stratification and optimal management in patients with AF and HFpEF.

Development of interpretable machine learning models to predict in-hospital prognosis of acute heart failure patients.

AIMS: In recent years, there has been remarkable development in machine learning (ML) models, showing a trend towards high prediction performance. ML models with high prediction performance often become structurally complex and are frequently perceived as black boxes, hindering intuitive interpretation of the prediction results. We aimed to develop ML models with high prediction performance, interpretability, and superior risk stratification to predict in-hospital mortality and worsening heart failure (WHF) in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, which enrolled 4056 patients with AHF, we developed prediction models for in-hospital mortality and WHF using information obtained on the first day of admission (demographics, physical examination, blood test results, etc.). After excluding 16 patients who died on the first or second day of admission, the original dataset (n = 4040) was split 4:1 into training (n = 3232) and test datasets (n = 808). Based on the training dataset, we developed three types of prediction models: (i) the classification and regression trees (CART) model; (ii) the random forest (RF) model; and (iii) the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model. The performance of each model was evaluated using the test dataset, based on metrics including sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier score, and calibration slope. For the complex structure of the XGBoost model, we performed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, classifying patients into interpretable clusters. In the original dataset, the proportion of females was 44.8% (1809/4040), and the average age was 77.9 ± 12.0. The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.3% (255/4040) and the WHF rate was 22.3% (900/4040) in the total study population. In the in-hospital mortality prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.816 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.815-0.818], surpassing the AUC values for the CART model (0.683, 95% CI: 0.680-0.685) and the RF model (0.755, 95% CI: 0.753-0.757). Similarly, in the WHF prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.766 (95% CI: 0.765-0.768), outperforming the AUC values for the CART model (0.688, 95% CI: 0.686-0.689) and the RF model (0.713, 95% CI: 0.711-0.714). In the XGBoost model, interpretable clusters were formed, and the rates of in-hospital mortality and WHF were similar among each cluster in both the training and test datasets. CONCLUSIONS: The XGBoost models with SHAP analysis provide high prediction performance, interpretability, and reproducible risk stratification for in-hospital mortality and WHF for patients with AHF.

Metastasis-associated protein, S100A4 mediates cardiac fibrosis potentially through the modulation of p53 in cardiac fibroblasts.

Metastasis-associated protein, S100A4 is suggested as a marker for fibrosis in several organs. It also modulates DNA binding of p53 and affects its function. However, the functional role of S100A4 in the myocardium has remained unclear. Therefore, we investigated the role of S100A4 and its relationship with p53 in cardiac fibrosis. In Dahl-rat hypertensive heart disease model, S100A4 was upregulated in the hypertrophic myocardium and further activated during transition to heart failure (HF). It was expressed in various cells including fibroblasts. In in vitro cardiac fibroblasts, the knockdown of S100A4 significantly suppressed both cell proliferation and collagen expressions. S100A4 co-localized and interacted with p53 in the nucleus. S100A4 knockdown increased the expression of p53-downstream genes, p21 and mdm2, and concomitant knockdown of p53 recovered cell proliferation and collagen expression. Transverse aortic constriction (TAC) was performed in S100A4 knockout (KO) mice, which showed a similar baseline-phenotype to wild type (WT) mice. Although there was no difference in hypertrophic response, KO mice showed reduced interstitial fibrosis, decreased myofibroblasts, and suppressed expressions of collagens and profibrotic cytokines in the left ventricle. Also, DNA microarray analysis showed that S100A4 knockout in vivo had a significant impact on expressions of p53-associated genes. These findings suggest that S100A4 modulates p53 function in fibroblasts and thereby mediates myocardial interstitial fibrosis through two distinct mechanisms; cell proliferation and collagen expression. Blockade of S100A4 may have therapeutic potential in cardiac hypertrophy and HF by attenuating cardiac fibrosis.

Association of intravenous heparin administration with in-hospital clinical outcomes among hospitalized patients with acute heart failure.

BACKGROUNDS: Patients with acute heart failure (AHF) possess a high risk for thromboembolism, and thromboembolism prophylaxis using heparin has been recommended by the guidelines. METHODS: Among 4056 patients enrolled in the KCHF Registry, the current study population consisted of 2525 patients after excluding patients with acute coronary syndrome and oral anticoagulants on admission and those with mechanical circulatory supports. There were 789 patients (31%) with heparin administration within 24 h after admission, and 1736 patients (69%) without. RESULTS: The baseline characteristics included mean age: 78 ± 13 years, New York Heart Association class IV: 51%, ischemic etiology: 30%, atrial fibrillation: 31% and mean left ventricular ejection fraction: 45%. During median hospitalization length of 16 days, 161 patients had all-cause death, 34 patients developed ischemic stroke, and 48 patients developed major bleeding. Multivariable logistic regression analyses demonstrated that heparin administration compared with no heparin administration was not associated with a lower risk for all-cause death (OR: 1.39, 95%CI: 0.90-2.15; P = 0.14), nor for ischemic stroke (OR: 1.14, 95%CI: 0.53-2.43; P = 0.74), but was associated with a higher risk for major bleeding (OR: 2.88, 95%CI: 1.54-5.41; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AHF, heparin administration within 24 h after admission was not associated with a lower risk of all-cause death and ischemic stroke, but was associated with a higher risk of major bleeding during hospitalization. Our study raises questions about the routine use of heparin for thromboembolism prophylaxis in hospitalized patients with AHF. Further studies are warranted to address the utility of anticoagulant therapy in these patients.