Predation and nutrients drive population declines in breeding waders.

Allee effects are defined as a decline in per capita fitness at low population density. We hypothesized that predation reduces population size of breeding waders and thereby the efficiency of predator deterrence, while total nitrogen through its effects on primary and secondary productivity increases population size. Therefore, nest predation could have negative consequences for population size because nest failure generally results in breeding dispersal and hence reduced local population density. To test these predictions, we recorded nest predation in five species of waders for 4,745 nests during 1987-2015 at the nature reserve Tipperne, Denmark. Predation rates were generally negatively related to conspecific and heterospecific population density, but positively related to overall population density of the entire wader community. Nest predation and population density were related to ground water level, management (grazing and mowing), and nutrients. High nest predation with a time lag of one year resulted in low overall breeding population density, while high nutrient levels resulted in higher population density. These two factors accounted for 86% of the variance in population size, presumably due to effects of nest predation on emigration, while nutrient levels increased the level of vegetation cover and the abundance of food in the surrounding brackish water. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that predation may reduce population density through negative density dependence, while total nitrogen at adjacent shallow water may increase population size. Nest predation rates were reduced by high ground water level in March, grazing by cattle and mowing that affected access to and susceptibility of nests to predators. These effects can be managed to benefit breeding waders.

Barriers and bridges for sustaining functional habitat networks: A macroecological system analysis of wet grassland landscapes.

This study aims at supporting the maintenance of representative functional habitat networks as green infrastructure for biodiversity conservation through transdisciplinary macroecological analyses of wet grassland landscapes and their stewardship systems. We chose ten north European wet grassland case study landscapes from Iceland and the Netherlands in the west to Lithuania and Belarus in the east. We combine expert experiences for 20-30 years, comparative studies made 2011-2017, and longitudinal analyses spanning >70 years. Wader, or shorebird, (Charadrii) assemblages were chosen as a focal species group. We used evidence-based knowledge and practical experience generated in three steps. (1) Experts from 8 wet grassland landscapes in northern Europe's west and east mapped factors linked to patterns and processes, and management and governance, in social-ecological systems that affect states and trends of wet grasslands as green infrastructures for wader birds. (2) To understand wader conservation problems and their dynamic in wet grassland landscapes, and to identify key issues for successful conservation, we applied group modeling using causal loop diagram mapping. (3) Validation was made using the historic development in two additional wet grassland landscapes. Wader conservation was dependent on ten dynamically interacting ecological and social system factors as leverage points for management. Re-wetting and grazing were common drivers for the ecological and social system, and long-term economic support for securing farmers' interest in wader bird conservation. Financial public incentives at higher levels of governance of wetland management are needed to stimulate private income loops. Systems analysis based on contrasting landscape case studies in space and over time can support (1) understanding of complex interactions in social-ecological systems, (2) collaborative learning in individual wet grassland landscapes, and (3) formulation of priorities for conservation, management, and restoration.

Genetic differentiation in an endangered and strongly philopatric, migrant shorebird.

BACKGROUND: Populations living in fragmented habitats may suffer from loss of genetic variation and reduced between-patch dispersal, which are processes that can result in genetic differentiation. This occurs frequently in species with reduced mobility, whereas genetic differentiation is less common among mobile species such as migratory birds. The high dispersal capacity in the latter species usually allows for gene flow even in fragmented landscapes. However, strongly philopatric behaviour can reinforce relative isolation and the degree of genetic differentiation. The Southern Dunlin (Calidris alpina schinzii) is a philopatric, long-distance migratory shorebird and shows reduced dispersal between isolated breeding patches. The endangered population of the Southern Dunlin breeding at the Baltic Sea has suffered from habitat deterioration and fragmentation of coastal meadows. We sampled DNA across the entire population and used 12 polymorphic microsatellite loci to examine whether the environmental changes have resulted in genetic structuring and loss of variation. RESULTS: We found a pattern of isolation-by-distance across the whole Baltic population and genetic differentiation between local populations, even within the southern Baltic. Observed heterozygosity was lower than expected throughout the range and internal relatedness values were positive indicating inbreeding. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide long-term, empirical evidence for the theoretically expected links between habitat fragmentation, population subdivision, and gene flow. They also demonstrate a rare case of genetic differentiation between populations of a long-distance migratory species. The Baltic Southern Dunlin differs from many related shorebird species that show near panmixia, reflecting its philopatric life history and the reduced connectivity of its breeding patches. The results have important implications as they suggest that reduced connectivity of breeding habitats can threaten even long-distance migrants if they show strong philopatry during breeding. The Baltic Southern Dunlin warrants urgent conservation efforts that increase functional connectivity and gene flow between breeding areas.

Multiple components of environmental change drive populations of breeding waders in seminatural grasslands.

Environments are rapidly changing due to climate change, land use, intensive agriculture, and the impact of hunting on predator populations. Here, we analyzed long-term data recorded during 1928-2014 on the size of breeding populations of waders at two large nature reserves in Denmark, Vejlerne and Tipperne, to determine the effects of components of environmental change on breeding populations of waders. Environmental variables and counts of waders were temporally autocorrelated, and we used generalized least square (GLS) by incorporating the first-order autoregressive correlation structure in the analyses. We attempted to predict the abundance of waders for short-term trends for two nature reserves (35 years) and for long-term trends for one nature reserve (86 years), using precipitation, temperature, nutrients, abundance of foxes Vulpes vulpes, area grazed, and number of cattle. There was evidence of impacts of nutrients, climate (long-term changes in temperature and precipitation), grazing, mowing, and predation on bird populations. We used standard random effects meta-analyses weighted by (N-3) to quantify these mean effects. There was no significant difference in effect size among species, while mean effect size differed consistently among environmental factors, and the interaction between effect size for species and environmental factors was also significant. Thus, environmental factors affected the different species differently. Mean effect size was the largest at +0.20 for rain, +0.11 for temperature, -0.09 for fox abundance, and -0.03 for number of cattle, while there was no significant mean effect for fertilizer, area grazed, and year. Effect sizes for two short-term time series from Tipperne and Vejlerne were positively correlated as were effect sizes for short-term and long-term time series at Tipperne. This implies that environmental factors had consistent effects across large temporal and spatial scales.