Forecasting of influenza activity and associated hospital admission burden and estimating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on 2019/20 winter season in Hong Kong.

Like other tropical and subtropical regions, influenza viruses can circulate year-round in Hong Kong. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant decrease in influenza activity. The objective of this study was to retrospectively forecast influenza activity during the year 2020 and assess the impact of COVID-19 public health social measures (PHSMs) on influenza activity and hospital admissions in Hong Kong. Using weekly surveillance data on influenza virus activity in Hong Kong from 2010 to 2019, we developed a statistical modeling framework to forecast influenza virus activity and associated hospital admissions. We conducted short-term forecasts (1-4 weeks ahead) and medium-term forecasts (1-13 weeks ahead) for the year 2020, assuming no PHSMs were implemented against COVID-19. We estimated the reduction in transmissibility, peak magnitude, attack rates, and influenza-associated hospitalization rate resulting from these PHSMs. For short-term forecasts, mean ambient ozone concentration and school holidays were found to contribute to better prediction performance, while absolute humidity and ozone concentration improved the accuracy of medium-term forecasts. We observed a maximum reduction of 44.6% (95% CI: 38.6% - 51.9%) in transmissibility, 75.5% (95% CI: 73.0% - 77.6%) in attack rate, 41.5% (95% CI: 13.9% - 55.7%) in peak magnitude, and 63.1% (95% CI: 59.3% - 66.3%) in cumulative influenza-associated hospitalizations during the winter-spring period of the 2019/2020 season in Hong Kong. The implementation of PHSMs to control COVID-19 had a substantial impact on influenza transmission and associated burden in Hong Kong. Incorporating information on factors influencing influenza transmission improved the accuracy of our predictions.

Outdoor light at night and risk of coronary heart disease among older adults: a prospective cohort study.

AIMS: We estimated the association between outdoor light at night at the residence and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) within a prospective cohort of older adults in Hong Kong. METHODS AND RESULTS: Over a median of 11 years of follow-up, we identified 3772 incident CHD hospitalizations and 1695 CHD deaths. Annual levels of outdoor light at night at participants' residential addresses were estimated using time-varying satellite data for a composite of persistent night-time illumination at ∼1 km2 scale. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the association between outdoor light at night at the residence and risk of CHD. The association between light at night and incident CHD hospitalization and mortality exhibited a monotonic exposure-response function. An interquartile range (IQR) (60.0 nW/cm2/sr) increase in outdoor light at night was associated with an HR of 1.11 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.18) for CHD hospitalizations and 1.10 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.22) for CHD deaths after adjusting for both individual and area-level risk factors. The association did not vary across strata of hypothesized risk factors. CONCLUSION: Among older adults, outdoor light at night at the residence was associated with a higher risk of CHD hospitalizations and deaths. We caution against causal interpretation of these novel findings. Future studies with more detailed information on exposure, individual adaptive behaviours, and potential mediators are warranted to further examine the relationship between light at night and CHD risk.

Dysregulation of ferroptosis may involve in the development of non-small-cell lung cancer in Xuanwei area.

The Xuanwei area of Yunnan Province, China, is one of the regions suffering from the highest occurrence and mortality rate of lung cancer in the world. Local residents tend to use bituminous coal as domestic fuel, which causes serious indoor air pollution and is established as the main carcinogen. After the local government carried out furnace and stove reform work, lung cancer rate including incidence and mortality among residents remains high. We herein wonder if there are specific mechanisms at protein level for the development of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in this area. We investigated the changes of protein profiling in tumour of the patients from Xuanwei area. Tandem mass tag (TMT) was employed to screen the differential proteins between carcinoma and para-carcinoma tissues. We identified a total of 422 differentially expressed proteins, among which 162 proteins were significantly up-regulated and 260 were downregulated compared to para-carcinoma tissues. Many of the differentially expressed proteins were related to extracellular matrix (ECM)-receptor interaction, focal adhesion, PI3K/AKT pathway and ferroptosis. Further experiments on the two differential proteins, thioredoxin 2 (TXN2) and haptoglobin (HP), showed that the change of their expressions could make the lung cancer cell lines more resistant to erastin or RSL-induced ferroptosis in vitro, and promote the growth of tumour in nude mice. In conclusion, this study revealed that aberrant regulation of ferroptosis may involve in the development of lung cancer in Xuanwei area.

Associations of seasonal variations and meteorological parameters with incidences of upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have demonstrated the seasonal variations of non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), but there is scanty data on lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) and the association with other meteorological parameters. METHODS: We included all patients hospitalized for UGIB and LGIB between 2009 and 2018 in Hong Kong. The monthly age-standardized and sex-standardized GIB incidences were fitted to meteorological data including average temperature (AT), maximum temperature (MaxT), minimum temperature (MinT), temperature range (TR), average precipitation, average atmospheric pressure (AtomP), and average relative humidity after adjusting for prescriptions of aspirin, proton pump inhibitors, and Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy using the autoregressive integrated moving average model. RESULTS: Despite a gradual decline in UGIB incidences, the incidences of UGIB were still higher in winter months. The incidence and fluctuation of both UGIB and LGIB were higher in the older age groups, especially those ≥80 years. The seasonality was only identified in those ≥60 years for UGIB, and only in those ≥80 years for LGIB. UGIB incidence was inversely associated with AT, MaxT, and MinT, but positively associated with TR and AtomP. LGIB was also significantly associated with AT, MaxT, MinT, and AtomP. CONCLUSION: Despite the changes in GIB incidences, the seasonal patterns of GIB were still marked in the elderly. With the aging population, the impacts of seasonal variations on GIB incidences could be considerable.

Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter and Mortality From Renal Failure: A Retrospective Cohort Study in Hong Kong, China.

Numerous studies have indicated that ambient particulate matter is closely associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease, yet the evidence for its association with renal disease remains underrecognized. We aimed to estimate the association between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter, defined as particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM2.5), and mortality from renal failure (RF) among participants in the Elderly Health Service Cohort in Hong Kong, China, from 1998 to 2010. PM2.5 concentration at the residential address of each participant was estimated based on a satellite-based spatiotemporal model. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate risks of overall RF and cause-specific mortality associated with PM2.5. After excluding 5,373 subjects without information on residential address or relevant covariates, we included 61,447 participants in data analyses. We identified 443 RF deaths during the 10 years of follow-up. For an interquartile-range increase in PM2.5 concentration (3.22 µg/m3), hazard ratios for RF mortality were 1.23 (95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.43) among all cohort participants and 1.42 (95% confidence interval: 1.16, 1.74) among patients with chronic kidney disease. Long-term exposure to atmospheric PM2.5 might be an important risk factor for RF mortality in the elderly, especially among persons with existing renal diseases.

Air pollution associated respiratory mortality risk alleviated by residential greenness in the Chinese Elderly Health Service Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Although residing in lower surrounding greenness and transient exposure to air pollution are independently associated with higher risk of adverse health outcomes, little is known about their interactions. OBJECTIVES: We examine whether residential neighborhood greenness modifies the short-term association between air pollution and respiratory mortality among the participants of Chinese Elderly Health Service Cohort in Hong Kong. METHODS: We estimated residential surrounding greenness by measuring satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from Landsat within catchments of residential addresses of participants who died of respiratory diseases between 1998 and 2011. We first dichotomized NDVI into low and high greenness and used a time-stratified case-crossover approach to estimate the percent excess risk of respiratory mortality associated with fine particulate matter (PM2.5), respirable particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3). We further classified NDVI into greenness quartiles and introduced an interaction term between air pollution and the assigned median values of the NDVI quartiles into the models to assess the trend of greenness modification on the air pollution and respiratory mortality associations. RESULTS: Among 3159 respiratory deaths during the follow-up, 2058 were from pneumonia and 947 from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Elders living in the low greenness areas were associated with a higher risk of pneumonia mortality attributed to NO2 (p = 0.049) and O3 (p = 0.025). The mortality risk of pneumonia showed a decreasing trend for NO2 (p for trend = 0.041), O3 (p for trend = 0.006), and PM2.5 (p for trend = 0.034) with greenness quartiles increasing from Quartile 1 (lowest) to Quartile 4 (highest). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that elders living in higher greenness areas are less susceptible to pneumonia mortality associated with air pollution, which provides evidence for optimizing allocation, siting, and quality of urban green space to minimize detrimental health effects of air pollution.

Indoor, outdoor, and personal exposure to PM2.5 and their bioreactivity among healthy residents of Hong Kong.

Direct evidence about associations between fine particles (PM2.5) components and the corresponding PM2.5 bioreactivity at the individual level is limited. We conducted a panel study with repeated personal measurements involving 56 healthy residents in Hong Kong. Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) levels were measured from these subjects. Out of 56 subjects, 27 (48.2%) participated in concurrent outdoor, indoor, and personal PM2.5 monitoring. Organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), particle bound-polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and phthalates were analyzed. Alteration in cell viability, lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and 8-isoprostane by 50 µg/mL PM2.5 extracts was determined in A549 cells in vitro. Moderate heterogeneities were shown in PM2.5 exposures and the corresponding PM2.5 bioreactivity across different sample types. Associations between the analyzed components and PM2.5 bioreactivity were assessed using the multiple regression models. Toxicological results revealed that indoor and personal exposure to OC as well as PAH compounds and their derivatives (e.g., Alkyl-PAHs, Oxy-PAHs) induced cell viability reduction and increase in levels of LDH, IL-6, and 8-isoprostane. Overall, OC in personal exposure played a dominant role in PM2.5-induced bioreactivity. Subsequently, we examined the associations of FeNO with IL-6 and 8-isoprostane levels using mixed-effects models. The results showed that per interquartile change in IL-6 and 8-isoprostane were associated with a 6.4% (p < 0.01) and 11.1% (p < 0.01) increase in FeNO levels, respectively. Our study explored the toxicological properties of chemical components in PM2.5 exposure, which suggested that residential indoors and personal OC and PAHs should be of great concern for human health. These findings indicated that further studies in inflammation and oxidative stress-related illnesses due to particle exposure would benefit from the assessment of in vitro PM2.5 bioreactivity.

Lung cancer risk by geologic coal deposits: A case-control study of female never-smokers from Xuanwei and Fuyuan, China.

Coal types vary around the world because of geochemical differences in their source deposits; however, the influence of coal emissions from different deposits on human health remains unexplored. To address this issue, we conducted the first study of the relationship between coal use from various deposits and lung cancer risk in Xuanwei and Fuyuan, counties in China where lung cancer rates are among the highest in the world among female never-smokers due to use of bituminous ("smoky") coal for heating and cooking. We conducted a population-based case-control study of 1031 lung cancer cases and 493 controls among never-smoking women in Xuanwei and Fuyuan. Logistic regression models were used to estimate associations between coal use from various deposits across the lifecourse and lung cancer risk. There was substantial heterogeneity in risks by coal deposit (p = 7.8E-05). Compared to non-smoky coal users, risks by smoky coal deposit ranged from OR = 7.49 (95% CI: 3.43-16.38) to OR = 33.40 (95% CI: 13.07-85.34). Further, women born into homes that used smoky coal and subsequently changed to non-smoky coal had a higher risk (OR = 10.83 (95% CI: 4.61-25.46)) than women born into homes that used non-smoky coal and changed to smoky coal (OR = 4.74 (95% CI: 2.03-11.04, pdifference = 0.04)). Our study demonstrates that various sources of coal have considerably different impact on lung cancer in this population and suggests that early-life exposure to carcinogenic emissions may exert substantial influence on health risks later in life. These factors should be considered when evaluating the health risks posed by exposure to coal combustion emissions.

Respirable Particulate Constituents and Risk of Cause-Specific Mortality in the Hong Kong Population.

Emerging studies examined the associations of particulate matter constituents with nonaccidental and cardiorespiratory diseases, but few have investigated more specific causes of cardiorespiratory diseases or other system diseases, especially in Asia. We estimated the association between respirable particulate matter (PM10) constituents and a spectrum of deaths using a quasi-Poisson time-series model in Hong Kong. Positive associations were identified between cause-specific deaths and elemental carbon, organic carbon (OC), nitrate, and potassium ion (K+), but only the associations for OC and K+ were robust in the two-constituent models adjusting for other constituents. The estimated effects of OC were strongest on mortality from the respiratory system with cumulative percent excess risk (ER%) of 3.82% (95% CI: 0.96%, 6.92%) per interquartile range (6.7 µg/m3) increase over 7 days prior to death (lag0-7), especially for pneumonia (ER%: 4.32%; 95% CI: 0.70%, 8.26%). The digestive system was most sensitive to K+ with cumulative ER% of 6.74% (95% CI: 0.37%, 14.01%) per interquartile range (0.6 µg/m3) increase. This study indicates that PM10 constituents from biomass burning (OC and K+) were more toxic than other constituents for deaths in Hong Kong, especially for mortalities from respiratory and digestive systems. These findings should have potential biological and pollution control implications.

Bituminous coal combustion and Xuan Wei Lung cancer: a review of the epidemiology, intervention, carcinogens, and carcinogenesis.

Indoor air pollution from bituminous coal combustion has been linked to the extremely high lung cancer rates of nonsmoking women in Xuan Wei County, Yunnan Province, China. Venting the smoke outdoors by installing chimneys was found to be effective at reducing the lung cancer risk in a cohort study of 21,232 farmers in central Xuan Wei. However, the lung cancer mortality rates in all 1.2 million residents of Xuan Wei have been increasing dramatically over the last four decades. It was higher than that in Yunnan Province and China overall, with significant heterogeneities in the geographic patterns of Xuan Wei. Intervention measures targeting certain types of coal or certain carcinogenic components in coal smoke need to be explored. To inform targeted intervention policies, it is essential to pinpoint the specific substance (particulate matter, organic extract, PAHs, free radicals, crystalline silica, and inorganic matter) that might account for the carcinogenicity of bituminous coal smoke. Exploring the underlying carcinogenesis mechanisms would also contribute to the intervention and control of the lung cancer epidemic in Xuan Wei, China. Here we review the suspected carcinogens and carcinogenesis mechanisms and discuss future research directions towards a better understanding of the etiology of lung cancer in Xuan Wei, China.

Five-year lung cancer mortality risk analysis and topography in Xuan Wei: a spatiotemporal correlation analysis.

BACKGROUND: In Xuan Wei, China, the lung cancer mortality rate is rising significantly more than that of the nation overall. However, it remains unclear 1) if improved diagnosis can just partially explain this observation and how other local risk factors may be correlated with the lung cancer mortality rate and 2) how the lung cancer mortality rates differ within Xuan Wei and how these spatiotemporal patterns are linked with local risk factors. To increase etiological knowledge, this study evaluated the spatial and temporal distributions of the health effects (the lung cancer mortality rates) from 2011 to 2015. METHODS: Four steps of spatial analysis were applied, as follows: 1) hotspot analysis to determine the geographical patterns of lung cancer mortality, 2) spatially-weighted sum to identify areas with higher health risks, 3) bivariate statistical analysis to assess the overall correlation between coal mines and lung cancer mortality, and 4) geographically-weighted regression to test for correlations among different towns within Xuan Wei. RESULTS: Women had higher lung cancer mortality rates than those in men, with an increasing trend in both sexes over time. The incidence rates in Laibin Town were the highest in Xuan Wei every year. Over the 5-year study period, the lung cancer mortality was increasingly concentrated in Laibin, Shuanglong, and Longchang, where the smoky coal mines are most concentrated. The population-level health risks from the coal mine in Xuan Wei were mapped and divided into five types of risk areas (Type I - Type IV). Correlation analysis revealed that there was no significant correlation between lung cancer mortality as a whole and coal mine distribution during the 5-year study period. However, the geographically-weighted regression revealed a stronger correlation in medium (Type III) and second-lowest (Type IV) health risks. CONCLUSIONS: Xuan Wei lung cancer mortality has increased continuously since the third national retrospective surveys on the causes of death by the Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China (2004-2005), especially for local women and residents over 35 years of age. Geographically, lung cancer in Xuan Wei showed unique spatiotemporal clustering. The local lung cancer mortality was significantly correlated with the smoky coal mine geographically. Some specific towns (Laibin, Shuanglong, and Longchang) within Xuan Wei manifested high correlations between lung cancer mortality and coal mines. The effects of coal mines on lung cancer mortality rates also spread geographically outward from these areas. Public health concern regarding lung cancer in Xuan Wei should prioritize higher-risk towns surrounded by smoking coal mines. Intervention strategies for particular toxic coal types require further studies on their chemical characteristics and mechanisms of carcinogenesis. Additional studies are also warranted to systematically examine the local environmental health risks related to coal industries and combustion air pollution and eventually to conduct early screening of lung cancer for local people who are more exposed to smoky coal in high-risk areas.

Association of wheat chaff derived silica fiber and esophageal cancer in north China.

BACKGROUND: Despite decades of research and intervention programs, the epidemic of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in the Taihang Mountain area of north China has not seen convincing explanation by any risk factor yet and the incidence has not seen a substantial decrease. Based on recently disclosed association of aridity and wheat consumption with esophageal cancer, we revisited the hypothesis of biogenic silica in esophageal cancer development. METHODS: From the archives of the Pathology Department of Heping Hospital, Changzhi Medical College, we selected three pairs of formalin-fixed samples, tumor tissues and distant normal tissues, of three patients operated for ESCC who had no history of workplace exposure to silica dust. Two pairs of dried tissue samples were used for phytolith (silica body) analysis and another pair for microanalysis with Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM). RESULTS: One of the phytoliths in ESCC tumor tissue was similar to the prickle hair on the surface of wheat bract. In the mineral particles detected in the tumor tissue the predominant elements were Si, Ca, and P, whereas Si signals were not obvious in the distant normal tissue. CONCLUSIONS: The preliminary findings on the detection of phytoliths and the higher than normal Si concentration in ESCC tumor tissue warrants further testing the role of biogenic silica in esophageal cancer.

Seasonal temperature variability and emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Climate change increases global mean temperature and changes short-term (eg, diurnal) and long-term (eg, intraseasonal) temperature variability. Numerous studies have shown that mean temperature and short-term temperature variability are both associated with increased respiratory morbidity or mortality. However, data on the impact of long-term temperature variability are sparse. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the association of intraseasonal temperature variability with respiratory disease hospitalisations among elders. METHODS: We ascertained the first occurrence of emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in a prospective Chinese elderly cohort of 66 820 older people (≥65 years) with 10-13 years of follow-up. We used an ordinary kriging method based on 22 weather monitoring stations in Hong Kong to spatially interpolate daily ambient temperature for each participant's residential address. Seasonal temperature variability was defined as the SD of daily mean summer (June-August) or winter (December-February) temperatures. We applied Cox proportional hazards regression with time-varying exposure of seasonal temperature variability to respiratory admissions. RESULTS: During the follow-up time, we ascertained 12 689 cases of incident respiratory diseases, of which 6672 were pneumonia and 3075 were COPD. The HRs per 1°C increase in wintertime temperature variability were 1.20 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.32), 1.15 (1.01 to 1.31) and 1.41 (1.15 to 1.71) for total respiratory diseases, pneumonia and COPD, respectively. The associations were not statistically significant for summertime temperature variability. CONCLUSION: Wintertime temperature variability was associated with higher risk of incident respiratory diseases.

Personal exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) and respiratory inflammation of common residents in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Given the lack of research on the personal exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) in Hong Kong, we examined the association between short-term personal exposure to PM2.5 and their constituents and inflammation in exhaled breath in a sample of healthy adult residents. METHOD: Forty-six participants underwent personal PM2.5 monitoring for averagely 6 days to obtain 276 samples. Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), a biomarker of inflammation in exhaled breath, was measured at the end of each 24-h personal monitoring. PM2.5 chemical constituents, including organic carbon, elemental carbon, 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and 6 phthalate esters, were speciated from the personal samples collected. A mixed-effects model was used to estimate the association of PM2.5 and their constituents with FeNO. The comparison was also made with parallel analyses using ambient concentrations. RESULTS: Personal exposures to PM2.5 (28.1 ±â€¯23.3 µg/m3) were higher than the ambient levels (13.3 ±â€¯6.4 µg/m3) monitored by stations. The composition profile and personal-to-ambient concentration ratio varied among subjects with different occupations. An interquartile range (IQR) change in personal exposure to PM2.5 was positively associated with 12.8% increase in FeNO (95% confidence interval, CI: 5.5-20.7%), while nil association was found for ambient PM2.5. Among the constituents measured, only the carcinogenic PAHs were significantly associated with 12% increase in FeNO responses (95% CI, 0.0-25.6%). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, our study provides the first understanding about personal exposure to PM2.5 and possible sources in Hong Kong. The results also showed that personal exposure to PM2.5 and c-PAHs were linked to increased FeNO levels among healthy adults.

Comparison of Health Impact of Air Pollution Between China and Other Countries.

Air pollution is the world's largest single environmental risk according to the World Health Organization (WHO), which caused around seven million deaths in 2012. Extensive epidemiological studies have been carried out worldwide to examine the health impacts of ambient air pollution, consistently demonstrating significant health impacts of ambient air pollution. Air pollution problem in China is especially serious; it has become the fourth biggest threat to the health of the Chinese people. In this review, we summarized existing literature, compared health impact of air pollution between China and other countries, and found substantial heterogeneity in the risk estimates of air pollution. The effect heterogeneities may be due to the differences in the characteristics of populations (e.g., the proportion of the elder population and people with preexisting diseases), exposure profile (e.g., air pollution concentrations and composition), and regional climate. Although the magnitude of relative risk estimates of air pollution is generally similar with that in other parts of the world, air pollution is one of China's most serious environmental health problems given the huge number of people exposed to high concentration levels of air pollution in China.

Pneumonia Hospitalization Risk in the Elderly Attributable to Cold and Hot Temperatures in Hong Kong, China.

The growth of pathogens potentially relevant to respiratory tract infection may be triggered by changes in ambient temperature. Few studies have examined the association between ambient temperature and pneumonia incidence, and no studies have focused on the susceptible elderly population. We aimed to examine the short-term association between ambient temperature and geriatric pneumonia and to assess the disease burden attributable to cold and hot temperatures in Hong Kong, China. Daily time-series data on emergency hospital admissions for geriatric pneumonia, mean temperature, relative humidity, and air pollution concentrations between January 2005 and December 2012 were collected. Distributed-lag nonlinear modeling integrated in quasi-Poisson regression was used to examine the exposure-lag-response relationship between temperature and pneumonia hospitalization. Measures of the risk attributable to nonoptimal temperature were calculated to summarize the disease burden. Subgroup analyses were conducted to examine the sex difference. We observed significant nonlinear and delayed associations of both cold and hot temperatures with pneumonia in the elderly, with cold temperatures having stronger effect estimates. Among the 10.7% of temperature-related pneumonia hospitalizations, 8.7% and 2.0% were attributed to cold and hot temperatures, respectively. Most of the temperature-related burden for pneumonia hospitalizations in Hong Kong was attributable to cold temperatures, and elderly men had greater susceptibility.

The influence of pre-existing health conditions on short-term mortality risks of temperature: Evidence from a prospective Chinese elderly cohort in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Both cold and hot temperatures are associated with adverse health outcomes. Less is known about the role of pre-existing medical conditions to confer individual's susceptibility to temperature extremes. METHODS: We studied 66,820 subjects aged ≥65 who were enrolled and interviewed in all the 18 Elderly Health Centers of Department of Health, Hong Kong from 1998 to 2001, and followed up for 10-13 years. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a nested case-control study design was applied to estimate the nonlinear and delayed effects of cold or hot temperature on all natural mortality among subjects with different pre-existing diseases. RESULTS: The relative risk of all natural mortality associated with a decrease of temperature from 25th percentile (19.5°C) to 1st percentile (11.3°C) over 0-21 lag days for participants who reported to have an active disease at the baseline was 2.21 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19, 4.10) for diabetes mellitus (DM), 1.59 (1.12, 2.26) for circulatory system diseases (CSD), and 1.23 (0.53, 2.84) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), whereas 1.04 (0.59, 1.85) for non-disease group (NDG). Compared with NDG, elders with COPD had excess risk of mortality associated with thermal stress attributable to hot temperature, while elders with DM and CSD were vulnerable to both hot and cold temperatures. CONCLUSIONS: Elders with pre-existing health conditions were more vulnerable to excess mortality risk to hot and/or cold temperature. Preventative measures should target on elders with chronic health problems.

Who is more vulnerable to death from extremely cold temperatures? A case-only approach in Hong Kong with a temperate climate.

The short-term effects of ambient cold temperature on mortality have been well documented in the literature worldwide. However, less is known about which subpopulations are more vulnerable to death related to extreme cold. We aimed to examine the personal characteristics and underlying causes of death that modified the association between extreme cold and mortality in a case-only approach. Individual information of 197,680 deaths of natural causes, daily temperature, and air pollution concentrations in cool season (November-April) during 2002-2011 in Hong Kong were collected. Extreme cold was defined as those days with preceding week with a daily maximum temperature at or less than the 1st percentile of its distribution. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the effects of modification, further controlling for age, seasonal pattern, and air pollution. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by using the 5th percentile as cutoff point to define the extreme cold. Subjects with age of 85 and older were more vulnerable to extreme cold, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.33 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.22-1.45). The greater risk of extreme cold-related mortality was observed for total cardiorespiratory diseases and several specific causes including hypertensive diseases, stroke, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and pneumonia. Hypertensive diseases exhibited the greatest vulnerability to extreme cold exposure, with an OR of 1.37 (95 % CI, 1.13-1.65). Sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of these effect modifications. This evidence on which subpopulations are vulnerable to the adverse effects of extreme cold is important to inform public health measures to minimize those effects.

Migration patterns of hepatitis C virus in China characterized for five major subtypes based on samples from 411 volunteer blood donors from 17 provinces and municipalities.

UNLABELLED: We investigated the migration patterns of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in China. Partial E1 and/or NS5B sequences from 411 volunteer blood donors sampled in 17 provinces and municipalities located in five large regions, the north-northeast, northwest, southwest, central south, and southeast, were characterized. The sequences were classified into eight subtypes (1a, n = 3; 1b, n = 183; 2a, n = 83; 3a, n = 30; 3b, n = 44; 6a, n = 55; 6n, n = 10; 6v, n = 1) and a new subtype candidate. Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees of the E1 sequences of the five major subtypes revealed distinct migration patterns. Subtype 1b showed four groups: one is prevalent nationwide with possible origins in the north-northeast; two are locally epidemic in the central south and northwest, respectively, and have spread sporadically to other regions; and the fourth one is likely linked to the long-distance dispersion among intravenous drug users from the northwest. Subtype 2a showed two groups: the larger one was mainly restricted to the northwest and seemed to show a trend toward migration via the Silk Road; the smaller one was geographically mixed and may represent descendants of those that spread widely during the contaminated plasma campaign in the 1990s. Subtype 3a exhibited three well-separated geographic groups that may be epidemically unrelated: one showed origins in the northwest, one showed origins in the southwest, and the other showed origins in the central south. In contrast, subtype 3b had a mixture of geographic origins, suggesting migrations from the southwest to the northwest and sporadically to other regions. Structurally resembling the tree for subtype 3a, the tree for subtype 6a showed four groups that may indicate migrations from the central south to southeast, southwest, and northwest. Strikingly, no subtype 6a strain was identified in the north-northeast. IMPORTANCE: With a population of greater than 1.3 billion and a territory of >9.6 million square kilometers, China has a total of 34 provinces and municipalities. In such a vast country, the epidemic history and migration trends of HCV are thought to be unique and complex but variable among regions and are unlikely to be represented by those observed in only one or at best a few provinces and municipalities. However, due to the difficulties in recruiting patients, all previous studies for this purpose have been based only on data from limited regions, and therefore, geographical biases were unavoidable. In this study, such biases were greatly reduced because we utilized samples collected from volunteer blood donors in 17 provinces and municipalities. To our knowledge, this is the first study in which the HCV isolates represented such a large portion of the country, and thus, the results should shed light on the current understanding of HCV molecular epidemiology.

Differential distributed lag patterns of source-specific particulate matter on respiratory emergency hospitalizations.

While different emission sources and formation processes generate mixtures of particulate matter (PM) with different physicochemical compositions that may differentially affect PM toxicity, evidence of associations between PM sources and respiratory events is scarce. We estimated PM10 sources contributed from 19 chemical constituents by positive matrix factorization, and examined association of short-term sources exposure with emergency respiratory hospitalizations using generalized additive models for single- and distributed lag periods. PM10 contributions from eight sources were identified. Respiratory risks over a consecutive 6-day exposure period were the highest for vehicle exhaust [2.01%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 2.99], followed by secondary sulfate (1.59%; 95% CI: 0.82, 2.37). Vehicle exhaust, regional combustion, and secondary nitrate were significantly associated with 0.93%-2.04% increase in respiratory hospitalizations at cumulative lag2-5; significant associations of aged sea salt (1.2%; 95% CI: 0.63, 1.78) and soil/road dust (0.42%; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.82) were at lag0-1. Some effect estimates were no longer significant in two-pollutant models adjusting for PM10; however, a similar temporal pattern of associations remains. Differential lag associations of respiratory hospitalizations with PM10 sources were indicated, which may reflect the different particle size fractions that sources tend to emit. Findings may have potential biological and policy implications.