Designing a conceptual framework for strategic selection of Bushfire mitigation approaches.

Fires are an important aspect of environmental ecology; however, they are also one of the most widespread destructive forces impacting natural ecosystems as well as property, human health, water and other resources. Urban sprawl is driving the construction of new homes and facilities into fire-vulnerable areas. This growth, combined with a warmer climate, is likely to make the consequences of wildfires more severe. To reduce wildfires and associated risks, a variety of hazard reduction practices are implemented, such as prescribed burning (PB) and mechanical fuel load reduction (MFLR). PB can reduce forest fuel load; however, it has adverse effects on air quality and human health, and should not be applied close to residential areas due to risks of fire escape. On the other hand, MFLR releases less greenhouse gasses and does not impose risks to residential areas. However, it is more expensive to implement. We suggest that environmental, economic and social costs of various mitigation tools should be taken into account when choosing the most appropriate fire mitigation approach and propose a conceptual framework, which can do it. We show that applying GIS methods and life cycle assessment we can produce a more reasonable comparison that can, for example, include the benefits that can be generated by using collected biomass for bioenergy or in timber industries. This framework can assist decision makers to find the optimal combinations of hazard reduction practices for various specific conditions and locations.

Socio-technical scales in socio-environmental modeling: Managing a system-of-systems modeling approach.

System-of-systems approaches for integrated assessments have become prevalent in recent years. Such approaches integrate a variety of models from different disciplines and modeling paradigms to represent a socio-environmental (or social-ecological) system aiming to holistically inform policy and decision-making processes. Central to the system-of-systems approaches is the representation of systems in a multi-tier framework with nested scales. Current modeling paradigms, however, have disciplinary-specific lineage, leading to inconsistencies in the conceptualization and integration of socio-environmental systems. In this paper, a multidisciplinary team of researchers, from engineering, natural and social sciences, have come together to detail socio-technical practices and challenges that arise in the consideration of scale throughout the socio-environmental modeling process. We identify key paths forward, focused on explicit consideration of scale and uncertainty, strengthening interdisciplinary communication, and improvement of the documentation process. We call for a grand vision (and commensurate funding) for holistic system-of-systems research that engages researchers, stakeholders, and policy makers in a multi-tiered process for the co-creation of knowledge and solutions to major socio-environmental problems.

Integrated modeling of extended agro-food supply chains: A systems approach.

The current intense food production-consumption is one of the main sources of environmental pollution and contributes to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Organic farming is a potential way to reduce environmental impacts by excluding synthetic pesticides and fertilizers from the process. Despite ecological benefits, it is unlikely that conversion to organic can be financially viable for farmers, without additional support and incentives from consumers. This study models the interplay between consumer preferences and socio-environmental issues related to agriculture and food production. We operationalize the novel concept of extended agro-food supply chain and simulate adaptive behavior of farmers, food processors, retailers, and customers. Not only the operational factors (e.g., price, quantity, and lead time), but also the behavioral factors (e.g., attitude, perceived control, social norms, habits, and personal goals) of the food suppliers and consumers are considered in order to foster organic farming. We propose an integrated approach combining agent-based, discrete-event, and system dynamics modeling for a case of wine supply chain. Findings demonstrate the feasibility and superiority of the proposed model over the traditional sustainable supply chain models in incorporating the feedback between consumers and producers and analyzing management scenarios that can urge farmers to expand organic agriculture. Results further indicate that demand-side participation in transition pathways towards sustainable agriculture can become a time-consuming effort if not accompanied by the middle actors between consumers and farmers. In practice, our proposed model may serve as a decision-support tool to guide evidence-based policymaking in the food and agriculture sector.

Analyzing the social impacts of scooters with geo-spatial methods.

Scooters, or gasoline powered two-wheelers, are becoming increasingly popular in the Netherlands. They provide fast, independent and affordable transportation, especially in urban congested areas. Unfortunately, they also have considerable adverse impacts on the environment and human health. The three most prominent impacts are associated with air pollution, noise pollution and traffic accidents. While the total contribution of emissions by scooters is relatively small compared to total traffic related emissions, they have a disproportionally large impact on their direct environment, especially when sharing roads with bicycles as in the Netherlands, where they are characterized as super-polluters. A scoping GIS based assessment, using theoretical and available secondary data, could identify routes with highest likelihood of scooter presence to estimate exhaust and noise impacts and related traffic accidents. Estimated are provided for the total population, and the number of childcare facilities within the impact areas. For future projections four different scenarios are analyzed. For the case study of the town of Enschede in the Netherlands the present noise/exhaust environmental impact of scooters is affecting at least 30% of the population and in the future this number can increase to 38%-53%.

Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio-environmental modeling.

Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PM's establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human-environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM.

An overview of the model integration process: From pre-integration assessment to testing.

Integration of models requires linking models which can be developed using different tools, methodologies, and assumptions. We performed a literature review with the aim of improving our understanding of model integration process, and also presenting better strategies for building integrated modeling systems. We identified five different phases to characterize integration process: pre-integration assessment, preparation of models for integration, orchestration of models during simulation, data interoperability, and testing. Commonly, there is little reuse of existing frameworks beyond the development teams and not much sharing of science components across frameworks. We believe this must change to enable researchers and assessors to form complex workflows that leverage the current environmental science available. In this paper, we characterize the model integration process and compare integration practices of different groups. We highlight key strategies, features, standards, and practices that can be employed by developers to increase reuse and interoperability of science software components and systems.

Economics, socio-ecological resilience and ecosystem services.

The economic process transforms raw materials and energy into economic products and waste. On a finite planet, continued economic growth threatens to surpass critical socio-ecological thresholds and undermine ecosystem services upon which humans and all other species depend. For most systems, whether such thresholds exist, where they lie and whether they are reversible cannot be known with certainty until they are crossed. We argue that our central economic challenge is to maintain the resilience of the current socio-ecological regime. We must reduce net impacts of economic activity to avoid critical ecological thresholds while ensuring economic necessities. Conventional economists pursue continuous growth as the central goal of economic activity, and assume that the price mechanism and technological breakthroughs ensure system resilience. Unfortunately, the price mechanism fails to address ecological thresholds because it ignores unowned ecosystem services, and fails to address economic thresholds because it ignores the needs of the poorest individuals, who live on the edge of them. Panarchy theory suggests that systems go through a cycle of growth, conservation, release and renewal. Managing a subsystem too long for growth or conservation-which many consider to be the goal of sustainability-actually threatens to collapse the higher-level system upon which that subsystem depends. Black Swan theory suggests we should seek to reduce the risk of catastrophic thresholds and promote the likelihood of technological breakthroughs. Economic degrowth, or planned release, is required to avoid catastrophic collapse. At the same time, publicly funded, open source information can help stimulate the technological breakthroughs economists count on to ensure resilience.

Food-energy-water nexus optimization brings substantial reduction of urban resource consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

Urban sustainability is a key to achieving the UN sustainable development goals (SDGs). Secure and efficient provision of food, energy, and water (FEW) resources is a critical strategy for urban sustainability. While there has been extensive discussion on the positive effects of the FEW nexus on resource efficiency and climate impacts, measuring the extent to which such synergy can benefit urban sustainability remains challenging. Here, we have developed a systematic and integrated optimization framework to explore the potential of the FEW nexus in reducing urban resource demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Demonstrated using the Metropolis Beijing, we have identified that the optimized FEW nexus can reduce resource consumption and GHG emissions by 21.0 and 29.1%, respectively. These reductions come with increased costs compared to the siloed FEW management, but it still achieved a 16.8% reduction in economic cost compared to the business-as-usual scenario. These findings underscore the significant potential of FEW nexus management in enhancing urban resource efficiency and addressing climate impacts, while also identifying strategies to address trade-offs and increase synergies.

The Value of Ecosystem Services from Giant Panda Reserves.

Ecosystem services (the benefits to humans from ecosystems) are estimated globally at $125 trillion/year [1, 2]. Similar assessments at national and regional scales show how these services support our lives [3]. All valuations recognize the role of biodiversity, which continues to decrease around the world in maintaining these services [4, 5]. The giant panda epitomizes the flagship species [6]. Its unrivalled public appeal translates into support for conservation funding and policy, including a tax on foreign visitors to support its conservation [7]. The Chinese government has established a panda reserve system, which today numbers 67 reserves [8, 9]. The biodiversity of these reserves is among the highest in the temperate world [10], covering many of China's endemic species [11]. The panda is thus also an umbrella species [12]-protecting panda habitat also protects other species. Despite the benefits derived from pandas, some journalists have suggested that it would be best to let the panda go extinct. With the recent downlisting of the panda from Endangered to Vulnerable, it is clear that society's investment has started to pay off in terms of panda population recovery [13, 14]. Here, we estimate the value of ecosystem services of the panda and its reserves at between US$2.6 and US$6.9 billion/year in 2010. Protecting the panda as an umbrella species and the habitat that supports it yields roughly 10-27 times the cost of maintaining the current reserves, potentially further motivating expansion of the reserves and other investments in natural capital in China.