Evidence for Behavioral Autorepression in Covid-19 Epidemiological Dynamics.

It has long been hypothesized that behavioral reactions to epidemic severity autoregulate infection dynamics, for example when susceptible individuals self-sequester based on perceived levels of circulating disease. However, evidence for such 'behavioral autorepression' has remained elusive, and its presence could significantly affect epidemic forecasting and interventions. Here, we analyzed early COVID-19 dynamics at 708 locations over three epidemiological scales (96 countries, 50 US states, and 562 US counties). Signatures of behavioral autorepression were identified through: (i) a counterintuitive mobility-death correlation, (ii) fluctuation-magnitude analysis, and (iii) dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection waves. These data enabled calculation of the average behavioral-autorepression strength (i.e., negative feedback 'gain') across different populations. Surprisingly, incorporating behavioral autorepression into conventional models was required to accurately forecast COVID-19 mortality. Models also predicted that the strength of behavioral autorepression has the potential to alter the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Overall, these results provide evidence for the long-hypothesized existence of behavioral autorepression, which could improve epidemic forecasting and enable more effective application of non-pharmaceutical interventions during future epidemics. Significance: Challenges with epidemiological forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic suggested gaps in underlying model architecture. One long-held hypothesis, typically omitted from conventional models due to lack of empirical evidence, is that human behaviors lead to intrinsic negative autoregulation of epidemics (termed 'behavioral autorepression'). This omission substantially alters model forecasts. Here, we provide independent lines of evidence for behavioral autorepression during the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrate that it is sufficient to explain counterintuitive data on 'shutdowns', and provides a mechanistic explanation of why early shutdowns were more effective than delayed, high-intensity shutdowns. We empirically measure autorepression strength, and show that incorporating autorepression dramatically improves epidemiological forecasting. The autorepression phenomenon suggests that tailoring interventions to specific populations may be warranted.

Quantitative comparison of single-cell RNA sequencing versus single-molecule RNA imaging for quantifying transcriptional noise.

Stochastic fluctuations (noise) in transcription generate substantial cell-to-cell variability. However, how best to quantify genome-wide noise, remains unclear. Here we utilize a small-molecule perturbation (IdU) to amplify noise and assess noise quantification from numerous scRNA-seq algorithms on human and mouse datasets, and then compare to noise quantification from single-molecule RNA FISH (smFISH) for a panel of representative genes. We find that various scRNA-seq analyses report amplified noise, without altered mean-expression levels, for ~90% of genes and that smFISH analysis verifies noise amplification for the vast majority of genes tested. Collectively, the analyses suggest that most scRNA-seq algorithms are appropriate for quantifying noise including a simple normalization approach, although all of these systematically underestimate noise compared to smFISH. From a practical standpoint, this analysis argues that IdU is a globally penetrant noise-enhancer molecule-amplifying noise without altering mean-expression levels-which could enable investigations of the physiological impacts of transcriptional noise.

Engineered deletions of HIV replicate conditionally to reduce disease in nonhuman primates.

Antiviral therapies with reduced frequencies of administration and high barriers to resistance remain a major goal. For HIV, theories have proposed that viral-deletion variants, which conditionally replicate with a basic reproductive ratio [R0] > 1 (termed "therapeutic interfering particles" or "TIPs"), could parasitize wild-type virus to constitute single-administration, escape-resistant antiviral therapies. We report the engineering of a TIP that, in rhesus macaques, reduces viremia of a highly pathogenic model of HIV by >3log10 following a single intravenous injection. Animal lifespan was significantly extended, TIPs conditionally replicated and were continually detected for >6 months, and sequencing data showed no evidence of viral escape. A single TIP injection also suppressed virus replication in humanized mice and cells from persons living with HIV. These data provide proof of concept for a potential new class of single-administration antiviral therapies.