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1.
Nature ; 610(7933): 652-655, 2022 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36224390

ABSTRACT

The general-relativistic phenomenon of spin-induced orbital precession has not yet been observed in strong-field gravity. Gravitational-wave observations of binary black holes (BBHs) are prime candidates, as we expect the astrophysical binary population to contain precessing binaries1,2. Imprints of precession have been investigated in several signals3-5, but no definitive identification of orbital precession has been reported in any of the 84 BBH observations so far5-7 by the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors8,9. Here we report the measurement of strong-field precession in the LIGO-Virgo-Kagra gravitational-wave signal GW200129. The binary's orbit precesses at a rate ten orders of magnitude faster than previous weak-field measurements from binary pulsars10-13. We also find that the primary black hole is probably highly spinning. According to current binary population estimates, a GW200129-like signal is extremely unlikely, and therefore presents a direct challenge to many current binary-formation models.

2.
Nature ; 570(7760): 189-193, 2019 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31092927

ABSTRACT

HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15-49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.


Subject(s)
Geographic Mapping , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology , Female , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Public Health/statistics & numerical data , Public Health/trends , Young Adult
3.
Nature ; 555(7694): 48-53, 2018 02 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29493588

ABSTRACT

Educational attainment for women of reproductive age is linked to reduced child and maternal mortality, lower fertility and improved reproductive health. Comparable analyses of attainment exist only at the national level, potentially obscuring patterns in subnational inequality. Evidence suggests that wide disparities between urban and rural populations exist, raising questions about where the majority of progress towards the education targets of the Sustainable Development Goals is occurring in African countries. Here we explore within-country inequalities by predicting years of schooling across five by five kilometre grids, generating estimates of average educational attainment by age and sex at subnational levels. Despite marked progress in attainment from 2000 to 2015 across Africa, substantial differences persist between locations and sexes. These differences have widened in many countries, particularly across the Sahel. These high-resolution, comparable estimates improve the ability of decision-makers to plan the precisely targeted interventions that will be necessary to deliver progress during the era of the Sustainable Development Goals.


Subject(s)
Educational Status , Adolescent , Adult , Africa , Female , Goals , Humans , Internationality , Male , Middle Aged , Probability , Sex Factors , World Health Organization , Young Adult
4.
Nature ; 555(7694): 41-47, 2018 02 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29493591

ABSTRACT

Insufficient growth during childhood is associated with poor health outcomes and an increased risk of death. Between 2000 and 2015, nearly all African countries demonstrated improvements for children under 5 years old for stunting, wasting, and underweight, the core components of child growth failure. Here we show that striking subnational heterogeneity in levels and trends of child growth remains. If current rates of progress are sustained, many areas of Africa will meet the World Health Organization Global Targets 2025 to improve maternal, infant and young child nutrition, but high levels of growth failure will persist across the Sahel. At these rates, much, if not all of the continent will fail to meet the Sustainable Development Goal target-to end malnutrition by 2030. Geospatial estimates of child growth failure provide a baseline for measuring progress as well as a precision public health platform to target interventions to those populations with the greatest need, in order to reduce health disparities and accelerate progress.


Subject(s)
Child Development , Growth Disorders/epidemiology , Growth , Malnutrition/epidemiology , Wasting Syndrome/epidemiology , Africa/epidemiology , Child, Preschool , Female , Goals , Growth Disorders/prevention & control , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Malnutrition/prevention & control , Prevalence , Public Health/statistics & numerical data , Thinness/epidemiology , Thinness/prevention & control , Wasting Syndrome/prevention & control , World Health Organization
5.
Optom Vis Sci ; 100(2): 145-150, 2023 02 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36728687

ABSTRACT

SIGNIFICANCE: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration regulates contact lenses as prescription medical devices and defines daily disposable lenses for single use; however, safety comparisons between daily disposable and reusable lenses rely on the lens-wearing regimen. When inappropriately discerned, studies may erroneously report replacement regimen, resulting in inaccurate risk rates. PURPOSE: This study aimed to explore different measures for defining daily disposable wearers in the context of a clinical study. METHODS: A secondary analysis of data from five multisite fieldings (n = 1059) from the Contact Lens Risk Survey was performed. Descriptive statistics were used to examine self-reported lens replacement, use of lens case, and manufacturer's recommended replacement frequency as defined by the participants' selection of their habitual lenses using a photographic aide. Daily disposable wearers were identified as reporting daily replacement (by self-report and lens identification) and not using a lens case. If there was a discrepancy among these three factors, the lens assignment was assessed as a majority response (two of three) or as missing if conflicting information was reported. RESULTS: The cohort was approximately two-thirds (68.7%) female and ranged from 12 to 33 years of age. A total of 154 participants (14.5%) were classified as daily disposable wearers and 896 (84.6%) as reusable wearers. Congruence was observed among all three daily disposable assignment factors for only 106 wearers (68.8%). The greatest discrepancy among daily disposable wearers was the report of using a lens case (n = 32 [20.8%]). In contrast, reusable lens wearers were more likely to report agreement across all three factors (n = 798 [89.1%], P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that the report of not using a lens case is a more conservative surrogate for true single-use lens wear, as one in five may be storing and reusing their daily disposable lenses.


Subject(s)
Contact Lenses, Hydrophilic , Lens, Crystalline , Humans , Female , Male , Disposable Equipment , Surveys and Questionnaires
6.
Ophthalmic Physiol Opt ; 43(2): 202-211, 2023 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36464862

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To use the Health Belief Model (HBM) to understand daily disposable (DD) soft contact lens (SCL) wearers' attitudes and beliefs. METHODS: A convenience sample of DD SCL wearers (18-33 years) was enrolled at two sites. Participants were queried about demographics, SCL wear and HBM constructs. Rasch analysis was used to assess the psychometric properties of the survey instrument and generate scores for each HBM subscale. ANOVA was used to determine relationships among HBM constructs, subject demographics and DD SCL-related health behaviours. RESULTS: One hundred people participated (mean ± SD), age = 24.2 ± 3.9 years, 76% female. Thirty-seven percent reported sleeping in DD SCLs and 25% reported reusing DD SCLs. Self-report of reusing DD SCLs was associated with scores on the benefits: reuse (p = 0.02) and barriers (p = 0.007) subscales, and sleeping in lenses was associated with scores on the susceptibility (p = 0.05), benefits: wear behaviours (p = 0.006) and barriers (p = 0.01) subscales. Rasch analysis showed some subscales demonstrated multidimensionality. CONCLUSIONS: Selected health belief constructs were associated with DD SCL-related behaviours including reusing and overnight wear. Increased understanding of SCL attitudes and beliefs could inform patient education and interventions to decrease risks associated with improper SCL wear.


Subject(s)
Contact Lenses, Hydrophilic , Humans , Female , Young Adult , Adult , Male , Surveys and Questionnaires , Self Report , Disposable Equipment , Attitude , Health Belief Model
7.
Eye Contact Lens ; 48(8): 347-354, 2022 08 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35580482

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To determine if targeted education can influence the behaviors and scores of soft contact lens (SCL) wearers via the Contact Lens Risk Survey (CLRS). METHODS: This was a multicenter, prospective, case-control study. Cases were symptomatic red eye SCL wearers (age, 18-39 years), and controls were age , sex, and site matched. Participants completed the CLRS and were provided targeted patient education at three time points: baseline, one, and six months. Change in scores and behaviors were analyzed using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. RESULTS: Forty-one cases and 71 controls were analyzed. The mean risk score (mean±SE) from baseline to follow-up improved (reduced) for all participants (-1.96±0.73; P =0.01), mostly driven by the improvement among cases (-2.55±1.32; P =0.05). Case subjects reported a decrease in frequency of wearing lenses while showering (-0.32±0.07; P <0.0001), discarding lens solution (-0.13±0.06; P =0.03), and rinsing lenses with tap water (-0.19±0.08; P =0.02) after targeted education. CONCLUSIONS: Targeted patient education can influence some behaviors of SCL wearers, especially those who experienced a red eye event. Further study is needed to determine how to improve other risk behaviors and whether these changes are sustained long term.


Subject(s)
Contact Lenses, Hydrophilic , Patient Education as Topic , Adolescent , Adult , Case-Control Studies , Contact Lenses, Hydrophilic/adverse effects , Humans , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , Young Adult
8.
N Engl J Med ; 379(12): 1128-1138, 2018 09 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30231224

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Diarrheal diseases are the third leading cause of disease and death in children younger than 5 years of age in Africa and were responsible for an estimated 30 million cases of severe diarrhea (95% credible interval, 27 million to 33 million) and 330,000 deaths (95% credible interval, 270,000 to 380,000) in 2015. The development of targeted approaches to address this burden has been hampered by a paucity of comprehensive, fine-scale estimates of diarrhea-related disease and death among and within countries. METHODS: We produced annual estimates of the prevalence and incidence of diarrhea and diarrhea-related mortality with high geographic detail (5 km2) across Africa from 2000 through 2015. Estimates were created with the use of Bayesian geostatistical techniques and were calibrated to the results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016. RESULTS: The results revealed geographic inequality with regard to diarrhea risk in Africa. Of the estimated 330,000 childhood deaths that were attributable to diarrhea in 2015, more than 50% occurred in 55 of the 782 first-level administrative subdivisions (e.g., states). In 2015, mortality rates among first-level administrative subdivisions in Nigeria differed by up to a factor of 6. The case fatality rates were highly varied at the national level across Africa, with the highest values observed in Benin, Lesotho, Mali, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings showed concentrated areas of diarrheal disease and diarrhea-related death in countries that had a consistently high burden as well as in countries that had considerable national-level reductions in diarrhea burden. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).


Subject(s)
Diarrhea/epidemiology , Africa/epidemiology , Bayes Theorem , Child, Preschool , Diarrhea/mortality , Geography, Medical , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Mortality/trends , Prevalence
9.
Optom Vis Sci ; 98(3): 258-265, 2021 03 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33771955

ABSTRACT

SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides insight into the current recommendations, clinical behaviors, and risk assessments of eye care professionals on the topic of rigid contact lens exposure to tap water. This knowledge may motivate professional organizations to develop initiatives to educate eye care professionals on the dangers of contact lens exposure to water. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the practice patterns and risk perceptions of eye care professionals regarding gas-permeable contact lens exposure to tap water. METHODS: A branched-logic survey was started by 320 clinicians, vision scientists, and industry personnel and was fully completed by 272 participants. The survey queried participants about their current practices, recommendations, and perceptions of risk regarding exposure of gas-permeable contact lenses to tap water. RESULTS: Of those who prescribe gas-permeable contact lenses, 57.4% reported rinsing lenses with tap water, whereas only 32.7% reported engaging in this same behavior in front of patients. Of those who reported never rinsing lenses with tap water, 85.6% indicated that rinsing lenses with water increases infection risk, whereas 52.1% of those who rinse lenses with water reported the same perceived risk (P < .001). Of all participants, 60% indicated that wearing contact lenses while showering increases infection risk, and 50.2% of all participants advised patients to avoid this behavior. CONCLUSIONS: A discrepancy exists between perceptions of risk concerning exposure of contact lenses to water and both clinical practices and patient education provided by professionals.


Subject(s)
Contact Lenses/statistics & numerical data , Eye Infections/epidemiology , Health Behavior , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Professional Practice/statistics & numerical data , Water/adverse effects , Contact Lens Solutions , Contact Lenses/microbiology , Contact Lenses/parasitology , Eye Infections/prevention & control , Female , Health Surveys , Humans , Male , Prosthesis Fitting
10.
Exp Astron (Dordr) ; 51(3): 1385-1416, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34720415

ABSTRACT

Black holes are unique among astrophysical sources: they are the simplest macroscopic objects in the Universe, and they are extraordinary in terms of their ability to convert energy into electromagnetic and gravitational radiation. Our capacity to probe their nature is limited by the sensitivity of our detectors. The LIGO/Virgo interferometers are the gravitational-wave equivalent of Galileo's telescope. The first few detections represent the beginning of a long journey of exploration. At the current pace of technological progress, it is reasonable to expect that the gravitational-wave detectors available in the 2035-2050s will be formidable tools to explore these fascinating objects in the cosmos, and space-based detectors with peak sensitivities in the mHz band represent one class of such tools. These detectors have a staggering discovery potential, and they will address fundamental open questions in physics and astronomy. Are astrophysical black holes adequately described by general relativity? Do we have empirical evidence for event horizons? Can black holes provide a glimpse into quantum gravity, or reveal a classical breakdown of Einstein's gravity? How and when did black holes form, and how do they grow? Are there new long-range interactions or fields in our Universe, potentially related to dark matter and dark energy or a more fundamental description of gravitation? Precision tests of black hole spacetimes with mHz-band gravitational-wave detectors will probe general relativity and fundamental physics in previously inaccessible regimes, and allow us to address some of these fundamental issues in our current understanding of nature.

11.
Lancet ; 393(10183): 1843-1855, 2019 May 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30961907

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Routine childhood vaccination is among the most cost-effective, successful public health interventions available. Amid substantial investments to expand vaccine delivery throughout Africa and strengthen administrative reporting systems, most countries still require robust measures of local routine vaccine coverage and changes in geographical inequalities over time. METHODS: This analysis drew from 183 surveys done between 2000 and 2016, including data from 881 268 children in 49 African countries. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model calibrated to results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017, to produce annual estimates with high-spatial resolution (5 ×    5 km) of diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus (DPT) vaccine coverage and dropout for children aged 12-23 months in 52 African countries from 2000 to 2016. FINDINGS: Estimated third-dose (DPT3) coverage increased in 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 64·6-80·3) of second-level administrative units in Africa from 2000 to 2016, but substantial geographical inequalities in DPT coverage remained across and within African countries. In 2016, DPT3 coverage at the second administrative (ie, district) level varied by more than 25% in 29 of 52 countries, with only two (Morocco and Rwanda) of 52 countries meeting the Global Vaccine Action Plan target of 80% DPT3 coverage or higher in all second-level administrative units with high confidence (posterior probability ≥95%). Large areas of low DPT3 coverage (≤50%) were identified in the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, and in Angola. Low first-dose (DPT1) coverage (≤50%) and high relative dropout (≥30%) together drove low DPT3 coverage across the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, Guinea, and Angola. INTERPRETATION: Despite substantial progress in Africa, marked national and subnational inequalities in DPT coverage persist throughout the continent. These results can help identify areas of low coverage and vaccine delivery system vulnerabilities and can ultimately support more precise targeting of resources to improve vaccine coverage and health outcomes for African children. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Subject(s)
Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Vaccine/supply & distribution , Immunization/economics , Vaccination Coverage/statistics & numerical data , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data , Africa/epidemiology , Angola , Cost of Illness , Delivery of Health Care/standards , Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Vaccine/administration & dosage , Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Vaccine/therapeutic use , Ethiopia , Guinea , Humans , Infant , Models, Theoretical , Morocco , Rwanda , Socioeconomic Factors , Somalia , Spatio-Temporal Analysis
12.
PLoS Med ; 16(3): e1002755, 2019 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30835728

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In 2015, high rates of microcephaly were reported in Northeast Brazil following the first South American Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak. Reported microcephaly rates in other Zika-affected areas were significantly lower, suggesting alternate causes or the involvement of arboviral cofactors in exacerbating microcephaly rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We merged data from multiple national reporting databases in Brazil to estimate exposure to 9 known or hypothesized causes of microcephaly for every pregnancy nationwide since the beginning of the ZIKV outbreak; this generated between 3.6 and 5.4 million cases (depending on analysis) over the time period 1 January 2015-23 May 2017. The association between ZIKV and microcephaly was statistically tested against models with alternative causes or with effect modifiers. We found no evidence for alternative non-ZIKV causes of the 2015-2017 microcephaly outbreak, nor that concurrent exposure to arbovirus infection or vaccination modified risk. We estimate an absolute risk of microcephaly of 40.8 (95% CI 34.2-49.3) per 10,000 births and a relative risk of 16.8 (95% CI 3.2-369.1) given ZIKV infection in the first or second trimester of pregnancy; however, because ZIKV infection rates were highly variable, most pregnant women in Brazil during the ZIKV outbreak will have been subject to lower risk levels. Statistically significant associations of ZIKV with other birth defects were also detected, but at lower relative risks than that of microcephaly (relative risk < 1.5). Our analysis was limited by missing data prior to the establishment of nationwide ZIKV surveillance, and its findings may be affected by unmeasured confounding causes of microcephaly not available in routinely collected surveillance data. CONCLUSIONS: This study strengthens the evidence that congenital ZIKV infection, particularly in the first 2 trimesters of pregnancy, is associated with microcephaly and less frequently with other birth defects. The finding of no alternative causes for geographic differences in microcephaly rate leads us to hypothesize that the Northeast region was disproportionately affected by this Zika outbreak, with 94% of an estimated 8.5 million total cases occurring in this region, suggesting a need for seroprevalence surveys to determine the underlying reason.


Subject(s)
Disease Outbreaks , Microcephaly/epidemiology , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/epidemiology , Zika Virus Infection/epidemiology , Brazil/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Male , Microcephaly/diagnosis , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/diagnosis , Risk Factors , Zika Virus Infection/diagnosis , Zika Virus Infection/transmission
14.
Lancet ; 390(10108): 2171-2182, 2017 Nov 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28958464

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, many countries in Africa achieved marked reductions in under-5 and neonatal mortality. Yet the pace of progress toward these goals substantially varied at the national level, demonstrating an essential need for tracking even more local trends in child mortality. With the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, which established ambitious targets for improving child survival by 2030, optimal intervention planning and targeting will require understanding of trends and rates of progress at a higher spatial resolution. In this study, we aimed to generate high-resolution estimates of under-5 and neonatal all-cause mortality across 46 countries in Africa. METHODS: We assembled 235 geographically resolved household survey and census data sources on child deaths to produce estimates of under-5 and neonatal mortality at a resolution of 5 × 5 km grid cells across 46 African countries for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We used a Bayesian geostatistical analytical framework to generate these estimates, and implemented predictive validity tests. In addition to reporting 5 × 5 km estimates, we also aggregated results obtained from these estimates into three different levels-national, and subnational administrative levels 1 and 2-to provide the full range of geospatial resolution that local, national, and global decision makers might require. FINDINGS: Amid improving child survival in Africa, there was substantial heterogeneity in absolute levels of under-5 and neonatal mortality in 2015, as well as the annualised rates of decline achieved from 2000 to 2015. Subnational areas in countries such as Botswana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia recorded some of the largest decreases in child mortality rates since 2000, positioning them well to achieve SDG targets by 2030 or earlier. Yet these places were the exception for Africa, since many areas, particularly in central and western Africa, must reduce under-5 mortality rates by at least 8·8% per year, between 2015 and 2030, to achieve the SDG 3.2 target for under-5 mortality by 2030. INTERPRETATION: In the absence of unprecedented political commitment, financial support, and medical advances, the viability of SDG 3.2 achievement in Africa is precarious at best. By producing under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at multiple levels of geospatial resolution over time, this study provides key information for decision makers to target interventions at populations in the greatest need. In an era when precision public health increasingly has the potential to transform the design, implementation, and impact of health programmes, our 5 × 5 km estimates of child mortality in Africa provide a baseline against which local, national, and global stakeholders can map the pathways for ending preventable child deaths by 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Subject(s)
Cause of Death , Child Mortality/trends , Conservation of Natural Resources , Infant Mortality/trends , Africa, Western , Age Factors , Bayes Theorem , Child, Preschool , Developing Countries , Female , Goals , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Population Surveillance , Predictive Value of Tests , Risk Assessment , Sex Factors
15.
Eye Contact Lens ; 44(1): 21-28, 2018 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27755286

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To test the ability of responses to the Contact Lens Assessment in Youth (CLAY) Contact Lens Risk Survey (CLRS) to differentiate behaviors among participants with serious and significant (S&S) contact lens-related corneal inflammatory events, those with other events (non-S&S), and healthy controls matched for age, gender, and soft contact lens (SCL) wear frequency. METHODS: The CLRS was self-administered electronically to SCL wearers presenting for acute clinical care at 11 clinical sites. Each participant completed the CLRS before their examination. The clinician, masked to CLRS responses, submitted a diagnosis for each participant that was used to classify the event as S&S or non-S&S. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to compare responses. RESULTS: Comparison of responses from 96 participants with S&S, 68 with non-S&S, and 207 controls showed that patients with S&S were more likely (always or fairly often) to report overnight wear versus patients with non-S&S (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 5.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-18.7) and versus controls (aOR, 5.8; CI, 2.2-15.2). Patients with S&S were more likely to purchase SCLs on the internet versus non-S&S (aOR, 4.9; CI, 1.6-15.1) and versus controls (aOR, 2.8; CI, 1.4-5.9). The use of two-week replacement lenses compared with daily disposables was significantly higher among patients with S&S than those with non-S&S (aOR, 4.3; CI, 1.5-12.0). Patients with S&S were less likely to regularly discard leftover solution compared with controls (aOR, 2.5; CI, 1.1-5.6). CONCLUSIONS: The CLRS is a clinical survey tool that can be used to identify risky behaviors and exposures directly associated with an increased risk of S&S events.


Subject(s)
Contact Lenses, Hydrophilic/adverse effects , Keratitis/etiology , Refractive Errors/therapy , Risk Assessment/methods , Surveys and Questionnaires , Adolescent , Adult , Age Distribution , Age Factors , Female , Humans , Incidence , Keratitis/epidemiology , Male , Ontario/epidemiology , Prognosis , Reproducibility of Results , Risk Factors , Sex Distribution , Sex Factors , United States/epidemiology , Young Adult
16.
Phys Rev Lett ; 119(25): 251103, 2017 Dec 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29303299

ABSTRACT

In a regime where data are only mildly informative, prior choices can play a significant role in Bayesian statistical inference, potentially affecting the inferred physics. We show this is indeed the case for some of the parameters inferred from current gravitational-wave measurements of binary black hole coalescences. We reanalyze the first detections performed by the twin LIGO interferometers using alternative (and astrophysically motivated) prior assumptions. We find different prior distributions can introduce deviations in the resulting posteriors that impact the physical interpretation of these systems. For instance, (i) limits on the 90% credible interval on the effective black hole spin χ_{eff} are subject to variations of ∼10% if a prior with black hole spins mostly aligned to the binary's angular momentum is considered instead of the standard choice of isotropic spin directions, and (ii) under priors motivated by the initial stellar mass function, we infer tighter constraints on the black hole masses, and in particular, we find no support for any of the inferred masses within the putative mass gap M≲5 M_{⊙}.

17.
Optom Vis Sci ; 94(6): 664-671, 2017 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28514248

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The aims of this study were to use cross-sectional optical coherence tomography imaging and custom curve fitting software to evaluate and model the foveal curvature as a spherical surface and to compare the radius of curvature in the horizontal and vertical meridians and test the sensitivity of this technique to anticipated meridional differences. METHODS: Six 30-degree foveal-centered radial optical coherence tomography cross-section scans were acquired in the right eye of 20 clinically normal subjects. Cross sections were manually segmented, and custom curve fitting software was used to determine foveal pit radius of curvature using the central 500, 1000, and 1500 µm of the foveal contour. Radius of curvature was compared across different fitting distances. Root mean square error was used to determine goodness of fit. The radius of curvature was compared between the horizontal and vertical meridians for each fitting distance. RESULTS: There radius of curvature was significantly different when comparing each of the three fitting distances (P < .01 for each comparison). The average radii of curvature were 970 µm (95% confidence interval [CI], 913 to 1028 µm), 1386 µm (95% CI, 1339 to 1439 µm), and 2121 µm (95% CI, 2066 to 2183) for the 500-, 1000-, and 1500-µm fitting distances, respectively. Root mean square error was also significantly different when comparing each fitting distance (P < .01 for each comparison). The average root mean square errors were 2.48 µm (95% CI, 2.41 to 2.53 µm), 6.22 µm (95% CI, 5.77 to 6.60 µm), and 13.82 µm (95% CI, 12.93 to 14.58 µm) for the 500-, 1000-, and 1500-µm fitting distances, respectively. The radius of curvature between the horizontal and vertical meridian radii was statistically different only in the 1000- and 1500-µm fitting distances (P < .01 for each), with the horizontal meridian being flatter than the vertical. CONCLUSIONS: The foveal contour can be modeled as a sphere with low curve fitting error over a limited distance and capable of detecting subtle foveal contour differences between meridians.


Subject(s)
Fovea Centralis/anatomy & histology , Tomography, Optical Coherence/methods , Adult , Female , Humans , Male , Reference Values , Young Adult
18.
Phys Rev Lett ; 117(19): 191101, 2016 Nov 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27858443

ABSTRACT

The redshift factor z is an invariant quantity of fundamental interest in post-Newtonian and self-force descriptions of compact binaries. It connects different approximation schemes, and plays a central role in the first law of binary black hole mechanics, which links local quantities to asymptotic measures of energy and angular momentum in these systems. Through this law, the redshift factor is conjectured to have a close relation to the surface gravity of the event horizons of black holes in circular orbits. We propose and implement a novel method for extracting the redshift factor on apparent horizons in numerical simulations of quasicircular binary inspirals. Our results confirm the conjectured relationship between z and the surface gravity of the holes and that the first law holds to a remarkable degree for binary inspirals. The redshift factor enables tests of analytic predictions for z in spacetimes where the binary is only approximately circular, giving a new connection between analytic approximations and numerical simulations.

19.
Optom Vis Sci ; 93(1): 42-9, 2016 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26583800

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To identify the contact lens-related modifiable and nonmodifiable factors associated with corneal inflammatory events (CIEs) in a university eye care center. METHODS: Contact lens-wearing undergraduate and graduate/professional students (age range, 18 to 36 years) with CIEs and contact lens wearers without complications (non-CIEs) were surveyed about their age, education level, overnight wear, brand of lens, brand of care solution, storage case age, topping-off, and lens replacement. Logistic regression was used to assess the impact of participant characteristics (demographic and behavior) and contact lens factors on the risk of a CIE. RESULTS: There were 160 participants enrolled, with 76 presenting with a CIE. Age was significant in the multivariate model (p < 0.001) as was an interaction between disinfectant and wearing schedule (p = 0.027). When daily wear (DW) and disinfectant were compared, polyquaternium-1/myristamidopropyl dimethylamine (PQ-1/MAPD) was associated with a greater risk of CIE versus peroxide (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 18.4; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.9-173.9) and versus polyhexamethylene biguanide or polyaminopropyl biguanide (PHMB) (aOR, 15.0; 95% CI, 4.5-50.0). For PHMB users only, extended wear (EW) compared with DW increased CIE risk (aOR, 10.0; 95% CI, 2.0-51.2). There was no difference in risk between EW and DW for PQ-1/MAPD (aOR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.2, 2.6). CONCLUSIONS: The multivariate analysis suggests that younger age and the use of PQ-1/MAPD, particularly in DW, increase the risk of acquiring a CIE with soft contact lens wear in college-aged students. For PHMB users, EW compared with DW increases the risk of a CIE; but for PQ-1/MAPD users, there is no difference between EW and DW.


Subject(s)
Contact Lenses, Hydrophilic/adverse effects , Keratitis/etiology , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Biguanides/adverse effects , Cross-Sectional Studies , Disinfectants/adverse effects , Disposable Equipment , Female , Humans , Male , Odds Ratio , Polymers/adverse effects , Propylamines/adverse effects , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , Universities , Young Adult
20.
Anal Chem ; 87(14): 7017-21, 2015 Jul 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26108480

ABSTRACT

Determining and correcting for background contributions of Re and Os from chemical reagents is critical for accurate and precise Re-Os dating of materials with parts per billion to parts per trillion Re and Os concentrations. Here we investigate reducing Os content in nitric acid, as it is the main contributor to the Os blank. Pretreating high-purity nitric acid with hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) significantly reduces nitric acid's Os contribution to femtogram levels, greatly reducing Os blank corrections. The improvement in background Os allows analysis of samples with extremely low Os concentrations (into the low ppt level). We present experimental data identifying key factors in reducing Os blank, including nitric acid to hydrogen peroxide volume ratios, wet versus dry glassware, and dark versus lighted reaction environments. These variables affect the reaction time between the two reagents, which in turn correlates inversely with the final Os content. The volume ratio of H2O2/HNO3 is shown to be the fundamental control on reaction time and final Os content, yielding a well-defined exponential relationship; minor variations in reaction time result from wet/dry glassware and light/dark reaction environment. At a H2O2/HNO3 volume ratio of ∼0.24, the total procedural Os blank is reduced from 6.5 pg (no H2O2) to 0.043 pg. The (187)Os/(188)Os of the Os blank ranges from 0.18 to 0.36, consistent with the Os blank compositions obtained by the AIRIE Program and other Re-Os laboratories worldwide, and is uncorrelated with any experimental variables. In contrast to Os, pretreatment with hydrogen peroxide did not improve the Re blank of nitric acid; Re background reduction requires conventional methods such as sub-boiling distillation.

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