Can primary health care mitigate the effects of economic crises on child health in Latin America? An integrated multicountry evaluation and forecasting analysis.

BACKGROUND: Latin American and Caribbean countries are dealing with the combined challenges of pandemic-induced socicoeconomic stress and increasing public debt, potentially leading to reductions in welfare and health-care services, including primary care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of primary health-care coverage on child mortality in Latin America over the past two decades and to forecast the potential effects of primary health-care mitigation during the current economic crisis. METHODS: This multicountry study integrated retrospective impact evaluations in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico from 2000 to 2019 with forecasting models covering up to 2030. We estimated the impact of coverage of primary health care on mortality rates in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5 mortality) across different age groups and causes of death, adjusting for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health-care factors, with fixed-effects multivariable negative binomial models in 5647 municipalities with an adequate quality of vital statistics. We also performed several sensitivity and triangulation analyses. We integrated previous longitudinal datasets with validated dynamic microsimulation models and projected trends in under-5 mortality rates under alternative policy response scenarios until 2030. FINDINGS: High primary health-care coverage was associated with substantial reductions in post-neonatal mortality rates (rate ratio [RR] 0·72, 95% CI 0·71-0·74), toddler (ie, aged between 1 year and <5 years) mortality rates (0·75, 0·73-0·76), and under-5 mortality rates (0·81, 0·80-0·82), preventing 305 890 (95% CI 251 826-360 517) deaths of children younger than 5 years over the period 2000-19. High primary health-care coverage was also associated with lower under-5 mortality rates from nutritional deficiencies (RR 0·55, 95% CI 0·52-0·58), anaemia (0·64, 0·57-0·72), vaccine-preventable and vaccine-sensitive conditions (0·70, 0·68-0·72), and infectious gastroenteritis (0·78, 0·73-0·84). Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation response strategy implemented in the period 2020-30 that increases primary health-care coverage could reduce the under-5 mortality rate by up to 23% (RR 0·77, 95% CI 0·72-0·84) when compared with a fiscal austerity response, and this strategy would avoid 142 285 (95% CI 120 217-164 378) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico. INTERPRETATION: The improvement in primary health-care coverage in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico over the past two decades has substantially contributed to improving child survival. Expansion of primary health-care coverage should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health effects of the current economic crisis and to achieve Sustainable Development Goals related to child health. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Evaluation of remote radiologist-interpreted point-of-care ultrasound for suspected dengue patients in a primary health care facility in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Early identification of plasma leakage may guide treatment decisions in dengue patients. This study evaluated the value of point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) to detect plasma leakage and predict hospitalization or referral to a higher level of care in suspected dengue patients under routine conditions at a primary care facility in Colombia. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study between April 2019 and March 2020 in a primary care hospital in Cali, Colombia. We prospectively included and followed 178 patients who were at least 2 years old with fever of less than 10 days and clinician-suspected dengue. A trained general practitioner performed a standardized POCUS protocol. Images were quality-rated and overread by an expert radiologist, and her results and those of the general practitioner were compared using the Kappa index. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with plasma leakage at enrollment and explore its prognostic value regarding hospital admission or referral to a higher level of care. RESULTS: Half (49.6%) POCUS images were of suitable quality to be interpreted. The proportion of plasma leakage reported by the radiologist was 85.1% (95% CI: 78.6-90.2%) and 47.2% by the study physician (Kappa = 0.25, 95% CI: 0.15-0.35). The most frequent ultrasound findings were ascites (hepatorenal 87.2%, splenorenal 64%, or pelvic 21.8%) and gallbladder wall thickening (10.5%). Plasma leakage was higher in subjects with thrombocytopenia (aOR = 4, 95% CI: 1.3-12.1) and lower in patients 30-59 years old (aOR = 0.1, 95% CI: 0.0-0.4) than in those 18 years old or younger. POCUS evidence of plasma leakage (aOR = 8.2, 95% CI: 2.2-29.9), thrombocytopenia (aOR = 6.3, 95% CI: 2.4-16.0) and pulse pressure (aOR = 1.1, 95% CI: 1.07-1.2) were associated with hospital admission or referral to a higher level of care. CONCLUSIONS: Ultrasound is useful to detect plasma leakage in primary care and, challenges remain to guarantee high-quality images and diagnostic accuracy, for which a standardized dengue POCUS protocol and training program is needed.

Understanding the social determinants of child mortality in Latin America over the last two decades: a machine learning approach.

The reduction of child mortality rates remains a significant global public health challenge, particularly in regions with high levels of inequality such as Latin America. We used machine learning (ML) algorithms to explore the relationship between social determinants and child under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico over two decades. We created a municipal-level cohort from 2000 to 2019 and trained a random forest model (RF) to estimate the relative importance of social determinants in predicting U5MR. We conducted a sensitivity analysis training two more ML models and presenting the mean square error, root mean square error, and median absolute deviation. Our findings indicate that poverty, illiteracy, and the Gini index were the most important variables for predicting U5MR according to the RF. Furthermore, non-linear relationships were found mainly for Gini index and U5MR. Our study suggests that long-term public policies to reduce U5MR in Latin America should focus on reducing poverty, illiteracy, and socioeconomic inequalities. This research provides important insights into the relationships between social determinants and child mortality rates in Latin America. The use of ML algorithms, combined with large longitudinal data, allowed us to evaluate the effects of social determinants on health more carefully than traditional models.

Ultrasound in Dengue: A Scoping Review.

To improve dengue triage and treatment decisions, the WHO recommends classifying the disease as dengue with or without warning signs or severe dengue. Vascular leakage is a key component of the pathophysiology of severe dengue and is detectable by ultrasound. The objective of this scoping review is to describe the primary literature on the use of ultrasound in dengue, summarize the findings, and identify knowledge gaps. Our database search retrieved 1,489 records which were reduced to 177 studies following eligibility screening. Descriptive analyses were conducted. Results showed most studies are from South Asia (n = 92, 52%) and assessed hospitalized dengue patients (130, 82%). Radiologists were the most reported ultrasonographers (14, 8%), and conventional ultrasound (39, 68%) was preferred over portable (9, 16%). The most common ultrasound findings in dengue were ascites (107, 60%), pleural effusion (102, 58%), and gallbladder wall thickening (97, 55%). However, the lack of a standard protocol to perform the ultrasound examination in dengue patients hinders conclusions about the frequency of ultrasound findings in dengue. Given the progress of current ultrasound technology, a focused point-of-care ultrasound protocol for early detection of vascular leakage in dengue is needed to generate the evidence required for its implementation in routine care.

Cambios en los conocimientos sobre la relación periodontitis/enfermedades sistémicas. Estudio transversal no analítico / Changes in knowledge regarding the relationship between periodontitis and systemic diseases. Non-analytical cross-sectional study

Introducción: Las enfermedades periodontales tienen efectos locales y sistémicos sobre algunas enfermedades sistémicas. Propósito: Identificar cambios después de una jornada informativa preventiva sobre la relación de las EP y las enfermedades sistémicas en un ambiente universitario de carreras del área de la salud. Materiales y métodos: Estudio transversal no analítico cuyo objeto de estudio fue el cambio de la información obtenida por los participantes de una jornada de educación en salud en una muestra no aleatoria de 264 individuos de facultades de salud diferentes a odontología quienes recibieron encuestas "antes y después". Las variables de los cambios en los conocimientos se evaluaron mediante una escala Likert. Resultados: Antes de la estrategia, el 51,6% consideraban poco importante o que podría ser importante la salud oral como estilo de vida saludable vs un 99.2% al final. El 67.8 % de los sujetos, consideraban que la enfermedad periodontal no compartía factores de riesgo con condiciones sistémicas vs un 92.9%. Se incrementó de un 67.75% a 93.2% el reconocimiento del control del riesgo periodontal como estrategia para incidir en las enfermedades sistémicas. Conclusión: Una estrategia educativa sensibilizar positivamente sobre la importancia de la prevención de las enfermedades periodontales y las condiciones sistémicas.

Introduction: Periodontal diseases have local and systemic effects on some systemic diseases. Purpose: Identify changes after a preventive information session on the relationship between PD and systemic diseases in health faculties. Materials and methods: Non-analytical cross-sectional study whose object was the change in the information obtained by the participants of a health education session in a non-random sample of 264 individuals from health faculties other than dentistry who received "before and after" surveys. The variables were evaluated using a Likert scale. Results: Before the strategy, 51.6% considered oral health to be important for a healthy lifestyle vs. 99.2% at the end of the session. 67.8% of the subjects considered that periodontal disease shared risk factors with systemic conditions before the session vs. 92.9% after it. The recognition of periodontal risk control as a strategy to influence systemic diseases increased from 67.75% to 93.2%. Conclusion: An educational strategy raises a positive awareness of the importance of preventing periodontal diseases and systemic conditions.

Diseño y validación de un Protocolo de Atención Psicológica para la ideación suicida / Design and validation of a psychological attention protocol for suicidal ideation

Resumen La cifra de personas que presentan o han presentado alguna conducta suicida ha aumentado significativamente en Colombia desde el año 2014 al 2019, convirtiendo la conducta suicida en una problemática de salud pública; sin embargo, es un concepto amplio, que abarca diferentes tipos de conductas, por esto es necesario establecer un protocolo de atención para estandarizar las acciones del terapeuta o personas que se desempeñan en los servicios prestadores de salud. El presente artículo tiene como objetivo describir cómo se realizó el diseño y la validación de un protocolo de atención psicológica para atención en ideación suicida de los consultantes que asisten a un centro de atención psicológica de una institución universitaria de la ciudad de Bogotá. Se realizó un estudio cuantitativo, de tipo instrumental, el cual implicó: a) el diseño de la ruta de atención, situaciones que activan el protocolo y el módulo de atención en crisis; b) la participación de 10 jueces expertos con el fin de realizar la validación por contenido de todos los componentes del protocolo de atención psicológica. Los resultados arrojaron que el diseño es pertinente, suficiente y relevante para la problemática que se buscó abordar.

Abstract Currently, the number of people who present or have presented some suicidal behavior has increased significantly in Colombia from 2014 to 2019, making suicidal behavior a public health problem. However, it is abroad concept that covers different types of behavior, so it is necessary to establish a protocol of care to standardize the actions of the therapist and/or people who work in health care services. The present article aims to describe how a psychological care protocol was designed and validated for the care of suicidal ideation of consultants who attend a psychological care center at a university institution in the city of Bogotá. A quantitative, instrumental study was carried out, which involved: a) designing the care route, situations that activate the protocol and the crisis care module; b) the participation of 10 expert judges to carry out the validation of the content of all the components of the psychological care protocol. The results showed that the design of the care protocol is pertinent, sufficient, and relevant to the problem to be addressed.

Estrés, estrategias de afrontamiento, estilos de aprendizaje, y comunicación asertiva, en una muestra de estudiantes del Programa de Medicina de la Universidad de Manizales, y diseño de un proceso de mejora: 2012 / Stress, coping strategies, learning styles, and assertive communication, in a sample of students of the Medicine Program at the University of Manizales, and design of an improve-ment process: 2012

Objetivo: El propósito de esta investigación fue identificar las causas de estrés académicos en los estudiantes de primero y segundo Semestre del Programa de Medicina de la Universidad de Manizales, además identificar las estrategias de afrontamiento del mismo; el componente de investigación aplicada consistió en fomentar el uso de estrategias de afrontamiento asertivo del estrés en esta población, mediante la implementación de un programa tendiente a controlar los niveles de frustración. Materiales y métodos: Estudio cuasi-experimental, participaron 47 estudiantes de primer y segundo semestre del programa de medicina de la Universidad de Manizales. Se diseñó un proceso de 7 sesiones, en el cual se evaluaron los niveles de estrés, estrategias de afronatmiento, métodos de estudio, a través de cuestionarios diagnósticos, además se intervino con talleres sobre técnicas de estudio, técnicas de relajación, comunicación asertiva y proyecto de vida. Resultados: La búsqueda de apoyo social como estrategia de afrontamiento del estrés se encontró en un 29,8% de los estudiantes participantes, en un 46,8%; se identificó un riesgo de somatizar el estrés, predomina el estilo de aprendizaje teórico 31,9%, el 42,6% prefiere el método visual como canal de aprendizaje. Los participantes dieron al proceso una calificación promedio de 4,03 sobre la base de su utilidad inmediata en su vida académica. Conclusiones: El estudio permitió confirmar la necesidad de establecer y mantener un adecuado equipo de apoyo interdisciplinario dirigido a ofrecer apoyo y orientación a los estudiantes en sus primeros semestres de vida universitaria.