The combined effect of social pensions and cash transfers on child mortality: evaluating the last two decades in Brazil and projecting their mitigating effect during the global economic crisis.

Background: The world is currently experiencing multiple economic crises due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and inflation surge, which disproportionately affect children, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We evaluated if the expansion of Social Assistance, represented by Social Pensions (SP) and Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT), could reduce infant and child mortality, and mitigate excess deaths among children in Brazil, one of the LMICs most affected by these economic crises. Methods: We conducted a retrospective impact evaluation in a cohort of Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019 using multivariable fixed-effects negative binomial models, adjusted for relevant demographic, social, and economic factors, to estimate the effects of the SP and CCT on infant and child mortality. To verify the robustness of the results, we conducted several sensitivity and triangulation analyses, including difference-in-difference with propensity-score matching. These results were incorporated into dynamic microsimulation models to generate projections to 2030 of various economic crises and Social Assistance scenarios. Findings: Consolidated coverage of SP was associated with significant reductions in infant and child mortality rates, with a rate ratio (RR) of 0.843 (95% CI: 0.826-0.861) and 0.840 (95% CI: 0.824-0.856), respectively. Similarly, CCT consolidated coverages showed RRs of 0.868 (95% CI: 0.842-0.849) and 0.874 (95% CI: 0.850-0.899) for infant and child mortality, respectively. The higher the degree of poverty in the municipalities, the stronger the impact of CCT on reducing child mortality. Given the current economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of SP and CCT could avert 148,736 (95% CI: 127,148-170,706) child deaths up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity measures. Interpretation: SP and CCT programs could strongly reduce child mortality in LMICs, and their expansion should be considered as an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of the current multiple global economic crises. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Grant_Number:INV-027961. Medical Research Council(MRC-UKRI),Grant_Number:MC_PC_MR/T023678/1.

Intersection of Race and Gender in Self-Reports of Violent Experiences and Polyvictimization by Young Girls in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To explore racial disparities in self-reports of violent victimization and polyvictimization among young girls in Brazil and to analyze the distribution of prevalence rates across race groups and the estimated odds of exposure. DESIGN: Data from girls ages 15 and above (N=14,809) from the 2015 edition of PeNSE (National Adolescent School-based Health Survey) were analyzed. Survey weighted proportions and bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to address the objectives. RESULTS: Independent of the girls' age, socioeconomic status, and region of residence, black, indigenous, mixed, and Asian descendant girls (relative to Whites) were more likely to report past experiences of being bullied, suffering physical violence, forced sexual intercourse, and polyvictimization (reporting all three events). Blacks had the highest rates of reporting being bullied and polyvictimization. Asian descendants had the highest reports of physical violence. Indigenous girls had the highest reports of forced sexual intercourse. CONCLUSIONS: This study documented disproportionate risks of violent victimization for young women of color among Brazilian students. The risks were significantly greater for those of darker skin tones and from ethnic minorities. IMPLICATIONS: These findings can inform the development of programs to protect young women from violence in Brazil and highlight the importance of including anti-racism strategies in such programs.