ABSTRACT
Individuals with potential exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) do not necessarily develop PCR or antibody positivity, suggesting that some individuals may clear subclinical infection before seroconversion. T cells can contribute to the rapid clearance of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronavirus infections1-3. Here we hypothesize that pre-existing memory T cell responses, with cross-protective potential against SARS-CoV-2 (refs. 4-11), would expand in vivo to support rapid viral control, aborting infection. We measured SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells, including those against the early transcribed replication-transcription complex (RTC)12,13, in intensively monitored healthcare workers (HCWs) who tested repeatedly negative according to PCR, antibody binding and neutralization assays (seronegative HCWs (SN-HCWs)). SN-HCWs had stronger, more multispecific memory T cells compared with a cohort of unexposed individuals from before the pandemic (prepandemic cohort), and these cells were more frequently directed against the RTC than the structural-protein-dominated responses observed after detectable infection (matched concurrent cohort). SN-HCWs with the strongest RTC-specific T cells had an increase in IFI27, a robust early innate signature of SARS-CoV-2 (ref. 14), suggesting abortive infection. RNA polymerase within RTC was the largest region of high sequence conservation across human seasonal coronaviruses (HCoV) and SARS-CoV-2 clades. RNA polymerase was preferentially targeted (among the regions tested) by T cells from prepandemic cohorts and SN-HCWs. RTC-epitope-specific T cells that cross-recognized HCoV variants were identified in SN-HCWs. Enriched pre-existing RNA-polymerase-specific T cells expanded in vivo to preferentially accumulate in the memory response after putative abortive compared to overt SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our data highlight RTC-specific T cells as targets for vaccines against endemic and emerging Coronaviridae.
Subject(s)
Asymptomatic Infections , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/virology , DNA-Directed RNA Polymerases/immunology , Memory T Cells/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Seroconversion , Cell Proliferation , Cohort Studies , DNA-Directed RNA Polymerases/metabolism , Evolution, Molecular , Female , Health Personnel , Humans , Male , Membrane Proteins/immunology , Memory T Cells/cytology , Multienzyme Complexes/immunology , SARS-CoV-2/enzymology , SARS-CoV-2/growth & development , Transcription, Genetic/immunologyABSTRACT
Outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases are influenced by local biotic and abiotic factors, with host declines occurring when conditions favour the pathogen. Deterioration in the population of the micro-endemic Tanzanian Kihansi spray toad (Nectophrynoides asperginis) occurred after the construction of a hydropower dam, implicating habitat modification in this species decline. Population recovery followed habitat augmentation; however, a subsequent outbreak of chytridiomycosis caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) led to the spray toad's extinction in the wild. We show using spatiotemporal surveillance and mitogenome assembly of Bd from archived toad mortalities that the outbreak was caused by invasion of the BdCAPE lineage and not the panzootic lineage BdGPL. Molecular dating reveals an emergence of BdCAPE across southern Africa overlapping with the timing of the spray toad's extinction. That our post-outbreak surveillance of co-occurring amphibian species in the Udzungwa Mountains shows widespread infection by BdCAPE yet no signs of ill-health or decline suggests these other species can tolerate Bd when environments are stable. We conclude that, despite transient success in mitigating the impact caused by dams' construction, invasion by BdCAPE caused the ultimate die-off that led to the extinction of the Kihansi spray toad.
Subject(s)
Batrachochytrium , Extinction, Biological , Genome, Mitochondrial , Mycoses , Animals , Mycoses/veterinary , Mycoses/epidemiology , Mycoses/microbiology , Anura/microbiology , Tanzania , Bufonidae/microbiology , Chytridiomycota/physiologyABSTRACT
Chickens are believed to have inhabited the Hawaiian island of Kauai since the first human migrations around 1200AD, but numbers have peaked since the tropical storms Iniki and Iwa in the 1980s and 1990s that destroyed almost all the chicken coops on the island and released large numbers of domestic chickens into the wild. Previous studies have shown these now feral chickens are an admixed population between Red Junglefowl (RJF) and domestic chickens. Here, using genetic haplotypic data, we estimate the time of the admixture event between the feral population on the island and the RJF to 1981 (1976-1995), coinciding with the timings of storm Iwa and Iniki. Analysis of genetic structure reveals a greater similarity between individuals inhabiting the northern and western part of the island to RJF than individuals from the eastern part of the island. These results point to the possibility of introgression events between feral chickens and the wild chickens in areas surrounding the Koke'e State Park and the Alaka'i plateau, posited as two of the major RJF reservoirs in the island. Furthermore, we have inferred haplotype blocks from pooled data to determine the most plausible source of the feral population. We identify a clear contribution from RJF and layer chickens of the White Leghorn (WL) breed. This work provides independent confirmation of the traditional hypothesis surrounding the origin of the feral populations and draws attention to the possibility of introgression of domestic alleles into the wild reservoir.
Subject(s)
Chickens , Hybridization, Genetic , Animals , Humans , Chickens/genetics , Hawaii , Islands , BreedingABSTRACT
Few phenomena have had as profound or long-lasting consequences in human history as the emergence of large-scale centralized states in the place of smaller scale and more local societies. This study examines a fundamental, and yet unexplored, consequence of state formation: its genetic legacy. We studied the genetic impact of state centralization during the formation of the eminent precolonial Kuba Kingdom of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in the 17th century. We analyzed genome-wide data from over 690 individuals sampled from 27 different ethnic groups from the Kasai Central Province of the DRC. By comparing genetic patterns in the present-day Kuba, whose ancestors were part of the Kuba Kingdom, with those in neighboring non-Kuba groups, we show that the Kuba today are more genetically diverse and more similar to other groups in the region than expected, consistent with the historical unification of distinct subgroups during state centralization. We also found evidence of genetic mixing dating to the time of the Kingdom at its most prominent. Using this unique dataset, we characterize the genetic history of the Kasai Central Province and describe the historic late wave of migrations into the region that contributed to a Bantu-like ancestry component found across large parts of Africa today. Taken together, we show the power of genetics to evidence events of sociopolitical importance and highlight how DNA can be used to better understand the behaviors of both people and institutions in the past.
Subject(s)
Gene Flow , Human Genetics , Models, Genetic , Democratic Republic of the Congo , Female , Humans , MaleABSTRACT
The protozoan Plasmodium vivax is responsible for 42% of all cases of malaria outside Africa. The parasite is currently largely restricted to tropical and subtropical latitudes in Asia, Oceania, and the Americas. Though, it was historically present in most of Europe before being finally eradicated during the second half of the 20th century. The lack of genomic information on the extinct European lineage has prevented a clear understanding of historical population structuring and past migrations of P. vivax. We used medical microscope slides prepared in 1944 from malaria-affected patients from the Ebro Delta in Spain, one of the last footholds of malaria in Europe, to generate a genome of a European P. vivax strain. Population genetics and phylogenetic analyses placed this strain basal to a cluster including samples from the Americas. This genome allowed us to calibrate a genomic mutation rate for P. vivax, and to estimate the mean age of the last common ancestor between European and American strains to the 15th century. This date points to an introduction of the parasite during the European colonization of the Americas. In addition, we found that some known variants for resistance to antimalarial drugs, including Chloroquine and Sulfadoxine, were already present in this European strain, predating their use. Our results shed light on the evolution of an important human pathogen and illustrate the value of antique medical collections as a resource for retrieving genomic information on pathogens from the past.
Subject(s)
Malaria, Vivax/parasitology , Plasmodium vivax/classification , Plasmodium vivax/genetics , Whole Genome Sequencing/methods , Americas , Asia , Evolution, Molecular , Genetics, Population , Genome, Protozoan , High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing , Humans , Oceania , Phylogeny , Phylogeography , SpainABSTRACT
Modern European genetic structure demonstrates strong correlations with geography, while genetic analysis of prehistoric humans has indicated at least two major waves of immigration from outside the continent during periods of cultural change. However, population-level genome data that could shed light on the demographic processes occurring during the intervening periods have been absent. Therefore, we generated genomic data from 41 individuals dating mostly to the late 5th/early 6th century AD from present-day Bavaria in southern Germany, including 11 whole genomes (mean depth 5.56×). In addition we developed a capture array to sequence neutral regions spanning a total of 5 Mb and 486 functional polymorphic sites to high depth (mean 72×) in all individuals. Our data indicate that while men generally had ancestry that closely resembles modern northern and central Europeans, women exhibit a very high genetic heterogeneity; this includes signals of genetic ancestry ranging from western Europe to East Asia. Particularly striking are women with artificial skull deformations; the analysis of their collective genetic ancestry suggests an origin in southeastern Europe. In addition, functional variants indicate that they also differed in visible characteristics. This example of female-biased migration indicates that complex demographic processes during the Early Medieval period may have contributed in an unexpected way to shape the modern European genetic landscape. Examination of the panel of functional loci also revealed that many alleles associated with recent positive selection were already at modern-like frequencies in European populations â¼1,500 years ago.
Subject(s)
Genetics, Population , Genome, Human , Genomics/methods , Human Migration , Skull/metabolism , White People/genetics , Archaeology , DNA, Ancient , Female , Genetic Variation , Germany , Haplotypes , History, Medieval , Humans , Phenotype , Skull/anatomy & histology , Whole Genome SequencingABSTRACT
Zoroastrianism is one of the oldest extant religions in the world, originating in Persia (present-day Iran) during the second millennium BCE. Historical records indicate that migrants from Persia brought Zoroastrianism to India, but there is debate over the timing of these migrations. Here we present genome-wide autosomal, Y chromosome, and mitochondrial DNA data from Iranian and Indian Zoroastrians and neighboring modern-day Indian and Iranian populations and conduct a comprehensive genome-wide genetic analysis in these groups. Using powerful haplotype-based techniques, we find that Zoroastrians in Iran and India have increased genetic homogeneity relative to other sampled groups in their respective countries, consistent with their current practices of endogamy. Despite this, we infer that Indian Zoroastrians (Parsis) intermixed with local groups sometime after their arrival in India, dating this mixture to 690-1390 CE and providing strong evidence that Iranian Zoroastrian ancestry was maintained primarily through the male line. By making use of the rich information in DNA from ancient human remains, we also highlight admixture in the ancestors of Iranian Zoroastrians dated to 570 BCE-746 CE, older than admixture seen in any other sampled Iranian group, consistent with a long-standing isolation of Zoroastrians from outside groups. Finally, we report results, and challenges, from a genome-wide scan to identify genomic regions showing signatures of positive selection in present-day Zoroastrians that might correlate to the prevalence of particular diseases among these communities.
Subject(s)
Chromosomes, Human, Y/genetics , DNA, Mitochondrial/genetics , Ethnicity/genetics , Gene Flow , Genetic Variation , Genetics, Population , Selection, Genetic , Heredity , Humans , India/epidemiology , Iran/epidemiology , Linkage Disequilibrium , Male , ReligionABSTRACT
Farming and sedentism first appeared in southwestern Asia during the early Holocene and later spread to neighboring regions, including Europe, along multiple dispersal routes. Conspicuous uncertainties remain about the relative roles of migration, cultural diffusion, and admixture with local foragers in the early Neolithization of Europe. Here we present paleogenomic data for five Neolithic individuals from northern Greece and northwestern Turkey spanning the time and region of the earliest spread of farming into Europe. We use a novel approach to recalibrate raw reads and call genotypes from ancient DNA and observe striking genetic similarity both among Aegean early farmers and with those from across Europe. Our study demonstrates a direct genetic link between Mediterranean and Central European early farmers and those of Greece and Anatolia, extending the European Neolithic migratory chain all the way back to southwestern Asia.
Subject(s)
Agriculture , Anthropology , Europe , Genetics, Population , Humans , Mediterranean Region , Principal Component AnalysisABSTRACT
The Ari peoples of Ethiopia are comprised of different occupational groups that can be distinguished genetically, with Ari Cultivators and the socially marginalised Ari Blacksmiths recently shown to have a similar level of genetic differentiation between them (FST ≈ 0.023 - 0.04) as that observed among multiple ethnic groups sampled throughout Ethiopia. Anthropologists have proposed two competing theories to explain the origins of the Ari Blacksmiths as (i) remnants of a population that inhabited Ethiopia prior to the arrival of agriculturists (e.g. Cultivators), or (ii) relatively recently related to the Cultivators but presently marginalized in the community due to their trade. Two recent studies by different groups analysed genome-wide DNA from samples of Ari Blacksmiths and Cultivators and suggested that genetic patterns between the two groups were more consistent with model (i) and subsequent assimilation of the indigenous peoples into the expanding agriculturalist community. We analysed the same samples using approaches designed to attenuate signals of genetic differentiation that are attributable to allelic drift within a population. By doing so, we provide evidence that the genetic differences between Ari Blacksmiths and Cultivators can be entirely explained by bottleneck effects consistent with hypothesis (ii). This finding serves as both a cautionary tale about interpreting results from unsupervised clustering algorithms, and suggests that social constructions are contributing directly to genetic differentiation over a relatively short time period among previously genetically similar groups.
Subject(s)
Ethnicity/genetics , Alleles , Cluster Analysis , Culture , Ethiopia , Genetic Drift , Genetics, Medical , HumansABSTRACT
Microbes are found on us, within us and around us. They inhabit virtually every environment on the planet and the bacteria carried by an average human, mostly in their gut, outnumber human cells. The vast majority of microbes are harmless to us, and many play essential roles in plant, animal and human health. Others, however, are either obligate or facultative pathogens exerting a spectrum of deleterious effects on their hosts. Infectious diseases have historically represented the most common cause of death in humans until recently, exceeding by far the toll taken by wars or famines. From the dawn of humanity and throughout history, infectious diseases have shaped human evolution, demography, migrations and history.
Subject(s)
Bacteria/genetics , Bacteria/pathogenicity , Biological Evolution , Communicable Diseases , Genome, Bacterial , Host-Pathogen Interactions , Bacterial Physiological Phenomena , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases/microbiology , Communicable Diseases/transmission , Host Specificity , HumansSubject(s)
Coinfection , HIV Infections , Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant , Antitubercular Agents/therapeutic use , Coinfection/drug therapy , Diarylquinolines/therapeutic use , HIV Infections/complications , HIV Infections/drug therapy , Humans , Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant/complications , Tuberculosis, Multidrug-Resistant/drug therapyABSTRACT
Most emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases stem from viruses that naturally circulate in non-human vertebrates. When these viruses cross over into humans, they can cause disease outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics. While zoonotic host jumps have been extensively studied from an ecological perspective, little attention has gone into characterizing the evolutionary drivers and correlates underlying these events. To address this gap, we harnessed the entirety of publicly available viral genomic data, employing a comprehensive suite of network and phylogenetic analyses to investigate the evolutionary mechanisms underpinning recent viral host jumps. Surprisingly, we find that humans are as much a source as a sink for viral spillover events, insofar as we infer more viral host jumps from humans to other animals than from animals to humans. Moreover, we demonstrate heightened evolution in viral lineages that involve putative host jumps. We further observe that the extent of adaptation associated with a host jump is lower for viruses with broader host ranges. Finally, we show that the genomic targets of natural selection associated with host jumps vary across different viral families, with either structural or auxiliary genes being the prime targets of selection. Collectively, our results illuminate some of the evolutionary drivers underlying viral host jumps that may contribute to mitigating viral threats across species boundaries.
Subject(s)
Phylogeny , Humans , Animals , Genome, Viral , Evolution, Molecular , Viruses/genetics , Viruses/classification , Biological Evolution , Host Specificity , Selection, GeneticABSTRACT
The acquisition of exogenous mobile genetic material imposes an adaptive burden on bacteria, whereas the adaptational evolution of virulence plasmids upon entry into carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) and its impact remains unclear. To better understand the virulence in CRKP, we characterize virulence plasmids utilizing a large genomic data containing 1219 K. pneumoniae from our long-term surveillance and publicly accessible databases. Phylogenetic evaluation unveils associations between distinct virulence plasmids and serotypes. The sub-lineage ST11-KL64 CRKP acquires a pK2044-like virulence plasmid from ST23-KL1 hypervirulent K. pneumoniae, with a 2698 bp region deletion in all ST11-KL64. The deletion is observed to regulate methionine metabolism, enhance antioxidant capacity, and further improve survival of hypervirulent CRKP in macrophages. The pK2044-like virulence plasmid discards certain sequences to enhance survival of ST11-KL64, thereby conferring an evolutionary advantage. This work contributes to multifaceted understanding of virulence and provides insight into potential causes behind low fitness costs observed in bacteria.
Subject(s)
Antioxidants , Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae , Klebsiella pneumoniae/genetics , Phylogeny , Acclimatization , Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae/genetics , Carbapenems/pharmacology , Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacologyABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Drug resistance in tuberculosis (TB) poses a major ongoing challenge to public health. The recent inclusion of bedaquiline into TB drug regimens has improved treatment outcomes, but this advance is threatened by the emergence of strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) resistant to bedaquiline. Clinical bedaquiline resistance is most frequently conferred by off-target resistance-associated variants (RAVs) in the mmpR5 gene (Rv0678), the regulator of an efflux pump, which can also confer cross-resistance to clofazimine, another TB drug. METHODS: We compiled a dataset of 3682 Mtb genomes, including 180 carrying variants in mmpR5, and its immediate background (i.e. mmpR5 promoter and adjacent mmpL5 gene), that have been associated to borderline (henceforth intermediate) or confirmed resistance to bedaquiline. We characterised the occurrence of all nonsynonymous mutations in mmpR5 in this dataset and estimated, using time-resolved phylogenetic methods, the age of their emergence. RESULTS: We identified eight cases where RAVs were present in the genomes of strains collected prior to the use of bedaquiline in TB treatment regimes. Phylogenetic reconstruction points to multiple emergence events and circulation of RAVs in mmpR5, some estimated to predate the introduction of bedaquiline. However, epistatic interactions can complicate bedaquiline drug-susceptibility prediction from genetic sequence data. Indeed, in one clade, Ile67fs (a RAV when considered in isolation) was estimated to have emerged prior to the antibiotic era, together with a resistance reverting mmpL5 mutation. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of a pre-existing reservoir of Mtb strains carrying bedaquiline RAVs prior to its clinical use augments the need for rapid drug susceptibility testing and individualised regimen selection to safeguard the use of bedaquiline in TB care and control.
Subject(s)
Diarylquinolines , Mycobacterium tuberculosis , Tuberculosis , Humans , Mycobacterium tuberculosis/genetics , Clofazimine , Antitubercular Agents/pharmacology , Antitubercular Agents/therapeutic use , Microbial Sensitivity Tests , Phylogeny , Tuberculosis/drug therapyABSTRACT
Comparing the evolution of distantly related viruses can provide insights into common adaptive processes related to shared ecological niches. Phylogenetic approaches, coupled with other molecular evolution tools, can help identify mutations informative on adaptation, whilst the structural contextualization of these to functional sites of proteins may help gain insight into their biological properties. Two zoonotic betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission have caused pandemics in recent times (SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), whilst a third virus (MERS-CoV) is responsible for sporadic outbreaks linked to animal infections. Moreover, two other betacoronaviruses have circulated endemically in humans for decades (HKU1 and OC43). To search for evidence of adaptive convergence between established and emerging betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission (HKU1, OC43, SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), we developed a methodological pipeline to classify shared non-synonymous mutations as putatively denoting homoplasy (repeated mutations that do not share direct common ancestry) or stepwise evolution (sequential mutations leading towards a novel genotype). In parallel, we look for evidence of positive selection, and draw upon protein structure data to identify potential biological implications. We find 30 mutations, with four of these [codon sites 18121 (nsp14/residue 28), 21623 (spike/21), 21635 (spike/25) and 23948 (spike/796); SARS-CoV-2 genome numbering] displaying evolution under positive selection and proximity to functional protein regions. Our findings shed light on potential mechanisms underlying betacoronavirus adaptation to the human host and pinpoint common mutational pathways that may occur during establishment of human endemicity.
ABSTRACT
Comparing the evolution of distantly related viruses can provide insights into common adaptive processes related to shared ecological niches. Phylogenetic approaches, coupled with other molecular evolution tools, can help identify mutations informative on adaptation, although the structural contextualization of these to functional sites of proteins may help gain insight into their biological properties. Two zoonotic betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission have caused pandemics in recent times (SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), although a third virus (MERS-CoV) is responsible for sporadic outbreaks linked to animal infections. Moreover, two other betacoronaviruses have circulated endemically in humans for decades (HKU1 and OC43). To search for evidence of adaptive convergence between established and emerging betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission (HKU1, OC43, SARS-CoV-1, and SARS-CoV-2), we developed a methodological pipeline to classify shared nonsynonymous mutations as putatively denoting homoplasy (repeated mutations that do not share direct common ancestry) or stepwise evolution (sequential mutations leading towards a novel genotype). In parallel, we look for evidence of positive selection and draw upon protein structure data to identify potential biological implications. We find 30 candidate mutations, from which 4 (codon sites 18121 [nsp14/residue 28], 21623 [spike/21], 21635 [spike/25], and 23948 [spike/796]; SARS-CoV-2 genome numbering) further display evolution under positive selection and proximity to functional protein regions. Our findings shed light on potential mechanisms underlying betacoronavirus adaptation to the human host and pinpoint common mutational pathways that may occur during establishment of human endemicity.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus , Animals , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , COVID-19/genetics , Phylogeny , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus/genetics , MutationABSTRACT
There has been limited characterisation of bat-borne coronaviruses in Europe. Here, we screened for coronaviruses in 48 faecal samples from 16 of the 17 bat species breeding in the UK, collected through a bat rehabilitation and conservationist network. We recovered nine complete genomes, including two novel coronavirus species, across six bat species: four alphacoronaviruses, a MERS-related betacoronavirus, and four closely related sarbecoviruses. We demonstrate that at least one of these sarbecoviruses can bind and use the human ACE2 receptor for infecting human cells, albeit suboptimally. Additionally, the spike proteins of these sarbecoviruses possess an R-A-K-Q motif, which lies only one nucleotide mutation away from a furin cleavage site (FCS) that enhances infectivity in other coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2. However, mutating this motif to an FCS does not enable spike cleavage. Overall, while UK sarbecoviruses would require further molecular adaptations to infect humans, their zoonotic risk warrants closer surveillance.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Chiroptera , Animals , Humans , COVID-19/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/metabolism , Genomics , United Kingdom , Phylogeny , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/genetics , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/metabolismABSTRACT
SARS-CoV-2, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerged in late 2019 in China, and rapidly spread throughout the world to reach all continents. As the virus expanded in its novel human host, viral lineages diversified through the accumulation of around two mutations a month on average. Different viral lineages have replaced each other since the start of the pandemic, with the most successful Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants of concern (VoCs) sequentially sweeping through the world to reach high global prevalence. Neither Alpha nor Delta was characterized by strong immune escape, with their success coming mainly from their higher transmissibility. Omicron is far more prone to immune evasion and spread primarily due to its increased ability to (re-)infect hosts with prior immunity. As host immunity reaches high levels globally through vaccination and prior infection, the epidemic is expected to transition from a pandemic regime to an endemic one where seasonality and waning host immunization are anticipated to become the primary forces shaping future SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics. In this review, we consider a body of evidence on the origins, host tropism, epidemiology, genomic and immunogenetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 including an assessment of other coronaviruses infecting humans. Considering what is known so far, we conclude by delineating scenarios for the future dynamic of SARS-CoV-2, ranging from the good-circulation of a fifth endemic 'common cold' coronavirus of potentially low virulence, the bad-a situation roughly comparable with seasonal flu, and the ugly-extensive diversification into serotypes with long-term high-level endemicity.