Estimating the cumulative rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Accurate estimates of the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection remain elusive. Among the reasons for this are that tests for the virus are not randomly administered, and that the most commonly used tests can yield a substantial fraction of false negatives. In this article, we propose a simple and easy-to-use Bayesian model to estimate the infection rate, which is only partially identified. The model is based on the mapping from the fraction of positive test results to the cumulative infection rate, which depends on two unknown quantities: the probability of a false negative test result and a measure of testing bias towards the infected population. Accumulating evidence about SARS-CoV-2 can be incorporated into the model, which will lead to more precise inference about the infection rate.

Emergency department and inpatient hospital use by Medicare beneficiaries in patient-centered medical homes.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Patient-centered medical homes are primary care practices that focus on coordinating acute and preventive care. Such practices can obtain patient-centered medical home recognition from the National Committee for Quality Assurance. We compare growth rates for emergency department (ED) use and costs of ED visits and hospitalizations (all-cause and ambulatory-care-sensitive conditions) between patient-centered medical homes recognized in 2009 or 2010 and practices without recognition. METHODS: We studied a sample of US primary care practices and federally qualified health centers: 308 with and 1,906 without patient-centered medical home recognition, using fiscal year 2008 to 2010 Medicare fee-for-service data. We assessed average annual practice-level payments per beneficiary for ED visits and hospitalizations and rates of ED visits and hospitalizations (overall and ambulatory-care-sensitive condition) per 100 beneficiaries before and after patient-centered medical home recognition, using a difference-in-differences regression model comparing patient-centered medical homes and propensity-matched non-patient-centered medical homes. RESULTS: Comparing patient-centered medical home with non-patient-centered medical home practices, the rate of growth in ED payments per beneficiary was $54 less for 2009 patient-centered medical homes and $48 less for 2010 patient-centered medical homes relative to non-patient-centered medical home practices. The rate of growth in all-cause and ambulatory-care-sensitive condition ED visits per 100 beneficiaries was 13 and 8 visits fewer for 2009 patient-centered medical homes and 12 and 7 visits fewer for 2010 patient-centered medical homes, respectively. There was no hospitalization effect. CONCLUSION: From 2008 to 2010, outpatient ED visits increased more slowly for Medicare patients being treated by patient-centered medical home practices than comparison non-patient-centered medical homes. The reduction was in visits for both ambulatory-care-sensitive and non-ambulatory-care-sensitive conditions, suggesting that steps taken by practices to attain patient-centered medical home recognition such as improving care access may decrease some of the demand for outpatient ED care.

The economic impact of smoke-free laws on restaurants and bars in 9 States.

INTRODUCTION: Smoke-free air laws in restaurants and bars protect patrons and workers from involuntary exposure to secondhand smoke, but owners often express concern that such laws will harm their businesses. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the association between local smoke-free air laws and economic outcomes in restaurants and bars in 8 states without statewide smoke-free air laws: Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Texas, and West Virginia. A secondary objective was to examine the economic impact of a 2010 statewide smoke-free restaurant and bar law in North Carolina. METHODS: Using quarterly data from 2000 through 2010, we estimated dynamic panel data models for employment and sales in restaurants and bars. The models controlled for smoke-free laws, general economic activity, cigarette sales, and seasonality. We included data from 216 smoke-free cities and counties in the analysis. During the study period, only North Carolina had a statewide law banning smoking in restaurants or bars. Separate models were estimated for each state. RESULTS: In West Virginia, smoke-free laws were associated with a significant increase of approximately 1% in restaurant employment. In the remaining 8 states, we found no significant association between smoke-free laws and employment or sales in restaurants and bars. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that smoke-free laws did not have an adverse economic impact on restaurants or bars in any of the states studied; they provided a small economic benefit in 1 state. On the basis of these findings, we would not expect a statewide smoke-free law in Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas, or West Virginia to have an adverse economic impact on restaurants or bars in those states.

Total cost of care lower among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries receiving care from patient-centered medical homes.

OBJECTIVE: To compare health care utilization and payments between NCQA-recognized patient-centered medical home (PCMH) practices and practices without such recognition. DATA SOURCES: Medicare Part A and B claims files from July 1, 2007 to June 30, 2010, 2009 Census, 2007 Health Resources and Services Administration and CMS Utilization file, Medicare's Enrollment Data Base, and the 2005 American Medical Association Physician Workforce file. STUDY DESIGN: This study used a longitudinal, nonexperimental design. Three annual observations (July 1, 2008-June 30, 2010) were available for each practice. We compared selected outcomes between practices with and those without NCQA PCMH recognition. DATA COLLECTION METHODS: Individual Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries and their claims and utilization data were assigned to PCMH or comparison practices based on where they received the plurality of evaluation and management services between July 1, 2007 and June 30, 2008. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Relative to the comparison group, total Medicare payments, acute care payments, and the number of emergency room visits declined after practices received NCQA PCMH recognition. The decline was larger for practices with sicker than average patients, primary care practices, and solo practices. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides additional evidence about the potential of the PCMH model for reducing health care utilization and the cost of care.

The relation between tobacco taxes and youth and young adult smoking: what happened following the 2009 U.S. federal tax increase on cigarettes?

BACKGROUND: On April 1, 2009, the federal government raised cigarette taxes from $0.39 to $1.01 per pack. This study examines the impact of this increase on a range of smoking behaviors among youth aged 12 to 17 and young adults aged 18 to 25. METHODS: Data from the 2002-2011 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) were used to estimate the impact of the tax increase on five smoking outcomes: (1) past year smoking initiation, (2) past-month smoking, (3) past year smoking cessation, (4) number of days cigarettes were smoked during the past month, and (5) average number of cigarettes smoked per day. Each model included individual and state-level covariates and other tobacco control policies that coincided with the tax increase. We examined the impact overall and by race and gender. RESULTS: The odds of smoking initiation decreased for youth after the tax increase (odds ratio (OR)=0.83, p<0.0001). The odds of past-month smoking also decreased (youth: OR=0.83, p<0.0001; young adults: OR=0.92, p<0.0001), but the odds of smoking cessation remained unchanged. Current smokers smoked on fewer days (youth: coefficient=-0.97, p=0.0001; young adults: coefficient=-0.84, p<0.0001) and smoked fewer cigarettes per day after the tax increase (youth: coefficient=-1.02, p=0.0011; young adults: coefficient=-0.92, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The 2009 federal cigarette tax increase was associated with a substantial reduction in smoking among youths and young adults. The impact of the tax increase varied across male, female, white and black subpopulations.

Community health center efficiency: the role of grant revenues in health center efficiency.

OBJECTIVE: To test the relationship between external environments, organizational characteristics, and technical efficiency in federally qualified health centers (FQHCs). We tested the relationship between grant revenue and technical efficiency in FQHCs. DATA SOURCES/STUDY DESIGN: Secondary data were collected in each year from the Uniform Data System (UDS) on 644 eligible U.S.-based FQHCs between 2005 and 2007. The study employs a retrospective longitudinal cohort design with instrumental variables. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Increased grant revenues did not increase the probability that a health center would be on the efficiency frontier. However, increased grant revenues had a negative association with technical efficiency for health centers that were not fully efficient. CONCLUSION: If all health centers were operating efficiently, anywhere from 39 to 45 million patient encounters could have been delivered instead of the actual total of 29 million in 2007. Policy makers should consider tying grant revenues to performance indicators, and future work is needed to understand the mechanisms through which diseconomies of scale are present in FQHCs.

Time series analysis of sexual assault case characteristics and the 2007-2008 period of post-election violence in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Following the declaration that President Mwai Kibaki was the winner of the Kenyan presidential election held on December 27, 2007, a period of post-election violence (PEV) took place. In this study, we aimed to identify whether the period of PEV in Kenya was associated with systematic changes in sexual assault case characteristics. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Medical records of 1,615 patients diagnosed with sexual assault between 2007 and 2011 at healthcare facilities in Eldoret (n = 569), Naivasha (n = 534), and Nakuru (n = 512) were retrospectively reviewed to examine characteristics of sexual assault cases over time. Time series and linear regression were used to examine temporal variation in case characteristics relative to the period of post-election violence in Kenya. Key informant interviews with healthcare workers at the sites were employed to triangulate findings. The time series of sexual assault case characteristics at these facilities were examined, with a specific focus on the December 2007-February 2008 period of post-election violence. Prais-Winsten estimates indicated that the three-month period of post-election violence was associated with a 22 percentage-point increase in cases where survivors did not know the perpetrator, a 20 percentage-point increase in cases with more than one perpetrator, and a 4 percentage-point increase in cases that had evidence of abdominal injury. The post-election violence period was also associated with an 18 percentage-point increase in survivors waiting >1 month to report to a healthcare facility. Sensitivity analyses confirmed that these characteristics were specific to the post-election violence time period. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate systematic patterns in sexual assault characteristics during the PEV period in Kenya.