Machine Learning of Laboratory Data in Predicting 30-Day Mortality for Adult Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis.

BACKGROUND: Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) carries a high mortality rate. Current existing risk-evaluation methodologies fall short and improved predictive methods are needed. This study aimed to forecast 30-day mortality in adult HLH patients using 11 distinct machine learning (ML) algorithms. METHODS: A retrospective analysis on 431 adult HLH patients from January 2015 to September 2021 was conducted. Feature selection was executed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. We employed 11 ML algorithms to create prediction models. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, F1 score, calibration curve and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate these models. We assessed feature importance using the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) approach. RESULTS: Seven independent predictors emerged as the most valuable features. An AUC between 0.65 and 1.00 was noted among the eleven ML algorithms. The gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) algorithms demonstrated the most optimal performance (1.00 in the training cohort and 0.80 in the validation cohort). By employing the SHAP method, we identified the variables that contributed to the model and their correlation with 30-day mortality. The AUC of the GBDT algorithms was the highest when using the top 4 (ferritin, UREA, age and thrombin time (TT)) features, reaching 0.99 in the training cohort and 0.83 in the validation cohort. Additionally, we developed a web-based calculator to estimate the risk of 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: With GBDT algorithms applied to laboratory data, accurate prediction of 30-day mortality is achievable. Integrating these algorithms into clinical practice could potentially improve 30-day outcomes.

Adult acute leukemia patients with gram-negative bacteria bloodstream infection: Risk factors and outcomes of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

This study aims to analyze the risk factors for the development of multidrug-resistant (MDR) and carbapenem-resistant (CR) bacteria bloodstream infection (BSI) in a patient with acute leukemia (AL) and the mortality in gram-negative bacteria (GNB) BSI. This is a retrospective study conducted at West China Hospital of Sichuan University, which included patients diagnosed with AL and concomitant GNB BSI from 2016 to 2021. A total of 206 patients with GNB BSI in AL were included. The 30-day mortality rate for all patients was 26.2%, with rates of 25.8% for those with MDR GNB BSI and 59.1% for those with CR GNB BSI. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that exposure to quinolones (Odds ratio (OR) = 3.111, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.623-5.964, p = 0.001) within the preceding 30 days was an independent risk factor for MDR GNB BSI, while placement of urinary catheter (OR = 6.311, 95%CI: 2.478-16.073, p < 0.001) and exposure to cephalosporins (OR = 2.340, 95%CI: 1.090-5.025, p = 0.029) and carbapenems (OR = 2.558, 95%CI: 1.190-5.497, p = 0.016) within the preceding 30 days were independently associated with CR GNB BSI. Additionally, CR GNB BSI (OR = 2.960, 95% CI: 1.016-8.624, p = 0.047), relapsed/refractory AL (OR = 3.035, 95% CI: 1.265-7.354, p = 0.013), septic shock (OR = 5.108, 95% CI: 1.794-14.547, p = 0.002), platelets < 30 × 109/L before BSI (OR = 7.785, 95% CI: 2.055-29.492, p = 0.003), and inappropriate empiric antibiotic therapy (OR = 3.140, 95% CI: 1.171-8.417, p = 0.023) were independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in AL patients with GNB BSI. Prior antibiotic exposure was a significant factor in the occurrence of MDR GNB BSI and CR GNB BSI. CR GNB BSI increased the risk of mortality in AL patients with GNB BSI.

Dexamethasone versus methylprednisolone for multiple organ dysfunction in COVID-19 critically ill patients: a multicenter propensity score matching study.

BACKGROUND: Dexamethasone usually recommended for patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to reduce short-term mortality. However, it is uncertain if another corticosteroid, such as methylprednisolone, may be utilized to obtain better clinical outcome. This study assessed dexamethasone's clinical and safety outcomes compared to methylprednisolone. METHODS: A multicenter, retrospective cohort study was conducted between March 01, 2020, and July 31, 2021. It included adult COVID-19 patients who were initiated on either dexamethasone or methylprednisolone therapy within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The primary outcome was the progression of multiple organ dysfunction score (MODS) on day three of ICU admission. Propensity score (PS) matching was used (1:3 ratio) based on the patient's age and MODS within 24 h of ICU admission. RESULTS: After Propensity Score (PS) matching, 264 patients were included; 198 received dexamethasone, while 66 patients received methylprednisolone within 24 h of ICU admission. In regression analysis, patients who received methylprednisolone had a higher MODS on day three of ICU admission than those who received dexamethasone (beta coefficient: 0.17 (95% CI 0.02, 0.32), P = 0.03). Moreover, hospital-acquired infection was higher in the methylprednisolone group (OR 2.17, 95% CI 1.01, 4.66; p = 0.04). On the other hand, the 30-day and the in-hospital mortality were not statistically significant different between the two groups. CONCLUSION: Dexamethasone showed a lower MODS on day three of ICU admission compared to methylprednisolone, with no statistically significant difference in mortality.

Importance of hospital and clinical factors for early mortality in Takotsubo syndrome: Insights from the Swedish Coronary Angiography and Angioplasty Registry.

BACKGROUND: Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is an acute heart failure syndrome with symptoms similar to acute myocardial infarction. TTS is often triggered by acute emotional or physical stress and is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Predictors of mortality in patients with TS are not well understood, and there is a need to identify high-risk patients and tailor treatment accordingly. This study aimed to assess the importance of various clinical factors in predicting 30-day mortality in TTS patients using a machine learning algorithm. METHODS: We analyzed data from the nationwide Swedish Coronary Angiography and Angioplasty Registry (SCAAR) for all patients with TTS in Sweden between 2015 and 2022. Gradient boosting was used to assess the relative importance of variables in predicting 30-day mortality in TTS patients. RESULTS: Of 3,180 patients hospitalized with TTS, 76.0% were women. The median age was 71.0 years (interquartile range 62-77). The crude all-cause mortality rate was 3.2% at 30 days. Machine learning algorithms by gradient boosting identified treating hospitals as the most important predictor of 30-day mortality. This factor was followed in significance by the clinical indication for angiography, creatinine level, Killip class, and age. Other less important factors included weight, height, and certain medical conditions such as hyperlipidemia and smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: Using machine learning with gradient boosting, we analyzed all Swedish patients diagnosed with TTS over seven years and found that the treating hospital was the most significant predictor of 30-day mortality.

Investigation of antimicrobial susceptibility patterns, risk factors and their impact on mortality in cancer patients at a tertiary care cancer hospital- A prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Cancer patients are vulnerable to infections due to immunosuppression caused by cancer itself and its treatment. The emergence of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria further complicates the treatment of infections and increases the mortality and hospital stays. This study aimed to investigate the microbial spectrum, antimicrobial resistance patterns, risk factors, and their impact on clinical outcomes in these patients. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted at a tertiary care cancer hospital in Patna, Bihar, India, which included cancer patients aged 18 years and older with positive microbial cultures. RESULTS: This study analysed 440 patients, 53% (234) of whom were females, with an average age of 49.27 (± 14.73) years. A total of 541 isolates were identified, among which 48.01% (242) were multidrug resistant (MDR), 29.76% (150) were extensively drug resistant (XDR), and 19.84% (112) were sensitive. This study revealed that patients who underwent surgery, chemotherapy, were hospitalized, had a history of antibiotic exposure, and had severe neutropenia were more susceptible to MDR and XDR infections. The average hospital stays were 16.90 (± 10.23), 18.30 (± 11.14), and 22.83 (± 13.22) days for patients with sensitive, MDR, and XDR infections, respectively. The study also revealed overall 30-day mortality rate of 31.81% (140), whereas the MDR and XDR group exhibited 38.92% and 50.29% rates of 30-day mortality respectively (P < 0.001). Possible risk factors identified that could lead to mortality, were cancer recurrence, sepsis, chemotherapy, indwelling invasive devices such as foley catheter, Central venous catheter and ryles tube, MASCC score (< 21) and pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS: This study emphasizes the necessity for personalized interventions among cancer patients, such as identifying patients at risk of infection, judicious antibiotic use, infection control measures, and the implementation of antimicrobial stewardship programs to reduce the rate of antimicrobial-resistant infection and associated mortality and hospital length of stay.

Comparative prospective cohort study of efficacy and safety according to dosage and administration of ceftriaxone for community-acquired pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Limited prospective evidence has been accumulated regarding the efficacy and safety of ceftriaxone (CTRX) based on differences in dosage and administration of the drug as empiric therapy for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). This study aimed to compare initial treatment failure, 30-day mortality, and side effects between two groups of hospitalized adult CAP patients: one receiving intravenous CTRX at 1g twice daily (1gq12hr) and the other receiving 2g once daily (2gq24hr). METHODS: We prospectively included patients with CAP admitted to our hospital between October 2010 and December 2018. We analyzed patients initially treated solely with CTRX as either 1gq12hr or 2gq24hr. The primary outcome was initial treatment failure, while secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality and side effects. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis was used to minimize biases. RESULTS: Among the 457 CAP patients, 186 patients were in the 1gq12hr group and 271 patients were in the 2gq24hr group. After IPTW analysis, no significant differences in initial treatment failure rate (2.43 % vs 4.46 %, p = 0.27) or 30-day mortality rate (2.95 % vs 6.43 %, p = 0.13) were seen between groups. A small but noteworthy tendency was noted in the frequency of side effects between the two groups (1.04 % vs 4.20 %, p = 0.08) following IPTW analysis, even though the difference was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: This study did not find any significant difference between ceftriaxone 1gq12hr and 2gq24hr regarding efficacy or safety in adult patients with CAP. However, CTRX 1gq12hr may represent a safer option in terms of side effects.

Association between multimorbidity and postoperative mortality in patients undergoing major surgery: a prospective study in 29 countries across Europe.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity poses a global challenge to healthcare delivery. This study aimed to describe the prevalence of multimorbidity, common disease combinations and outcomes in a contemporary cohort of patients undergoing major abdominal surgery. METHODS: This was a pre-planned analysis of a prospective, multicentre, international study investigating cardiovascular complications after major abdominal surgery conducted in 446 hospitals in 29 countries across Europe. The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative mortality. The secondary outcome measure was the incidence of complications within 30 days of surgery. RESULTS: Of 24,227 patients, 7006 (28.9%) had one long-term condition and 10,486 (43.9%) had multimorbidity (two or more long-term health conditions). The most common conditions were primary cancer (39.6%); hypertension (37.9%); chronic kidney disease (17.4%); and diabetes (15.4%). Patients with multimorbidity had a higher incidence of frailty compared with patients ≤ 1 long-term health condition. Mortality was higher in patients with one long-term health condition (adjusted odds ratio 1.93 (95%CI 1.16-3.23)) and multimorbidity (adjusted odds ratio 2.22 (95%CI 1.35-3.64)). Frailty and ASA physical status 3-5 mediated an estimated 31.7% of the 30-day mortality in patients with one long-term health condition (adjusted odds ratio 1.30 (95%CI 1.12-1.51)) and an estimated 36.9% of the 30-day mortality in patients with multimorbidity (adjusted odds ratio 1.61 (95%CI 1.36-1.91)). There was no improvement in 30-day mortality in patients with multimorbidity who received pre-operative medical assessment. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity is common and outcomes are poor among surgical patients across Europe. Addressing multimorbidity in elective and emergency patients requires innovative strategies to account for frailty and disease control. The development of such strategies, that integrate care targeting whole surgical pathways to strengthen current systems, is urgently needed for multimorbid patients. Interventional trials are warranted to determine the effectiveness of targeted management for surgical patients with multimorbidity.

Machine learning-based prognostic model for 30-day mortality prediction in Sepsis-3.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis poses a critical threat to hospitalized patients, particularly those in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Rapid identification of Sepsis is crucial for improving survival rates. Machine learning techniques offer advantages over traditional methods for predicting outcomes. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model using a Stacking-based Meta-Classifier to predict 30-day mortality risks in Sepsis-3 patients from the MIMIC-III database. METHODS: A cohort of 4,240 Sepsis-3 patients was analyzed, with 783 experiencing 30-day mortality and 3,457 surviving. Fifteen biomarkers were selected using feature ranking methods, including Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest, and Extra Tree, and the Logistic Regression (LR) model was used to assess their individual predictability with a fivefold cross-validation approach for the validation of the prediction. The dataset was balanced using the SMOTE-TOMEK LINK technique, and a stacking-based meta-classifier was used for 30-day mortality prediction. The SHapley Additive explanations analysis was performed to explain the model's prediction. RESULTS: Using the LR classifier, the model achieved an area under the curve or AUC score of 0.99. A nomogram provided clinical insights into the biomarkers' significance. The stacked meta-learner, LR classifier exhibited the best performance with 95.52% accuracy, 95.79% precision, 95.52% recall, 93.65% specificity, and a 95.60% F1-score. CONCLUSIONS: In conjunction with the nomogram, the proposed stacking classifier model effectively predicted 30-day mortality in Sepsis patients. This approach holds promise for early intervention and improved outcomes in treating Sepsis cases.

Preoperative Variables of 30-Day Mortality in Adults Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Risk adjustment following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is vital for clinical quality registries, performance monitoring, and clinical decision-making. There remains significant variation in the accuracy and nature of risk adjustment models utilised in international PCI registries/databases. Therefore, the current systematic review aims to summarise preoperative variables associated with 30-day mortality among patients undergoing PCI, and the other methodologies used in risk adjustments. METHOD: The MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Web of Science databases until October 2022 without any language restriction were systematically searched to identify preoperative independent variables related to 30-day mortality following PCI. Information was systematically summarised in a descriptive manner following the Checklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies checklist. The quality and risk of bias of all included articles were assessed using the Prediction Model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. Two independent investigators took part in screening and quality assessment. RESULTS: The search yielded 2,941 studies, of which 42 articles were included in the final assessment. Logistic regression, Cox-proportional hazard model, and machine learning were utilised by 27 (64.3%), 14 (33.3%), and one (2.4%) article, respectively. A total of 74 independent preoperative variables were identified that were significantly associated with 30-day mortality following PCI. Variables that repeatedly used in various models were, but not limited to, age (n=36, 85.7%), renal disease (n=29, 69.0%), diabetes mellitus (n=17, 40.5%), cardiogenic shock (n=14, 33.3%), gender (n=14, 33.3%), ejection fraction (n=13, 30.9%), acute coronary syndrome (n=12, 28.6%), and heart failure (n=10, 23.8%). Nine (9; 21.4%) studies used missing values imputation, and 15 (35.7%) articles reported the model's performance (discrimination) with values ranging from 0.501 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.472-0.530) to 0.928 (95% CI 0.900-0.956), and four studies (9.5%) validated the model on external/out-of-sample data. CONCLUSIONS: Risk adjustment models need further improvement in their quality through the inclusion of a parsimonious set of clinically relevant variables, appropriately handling missing values and model validation, and utilising machine learning methods.

Influence of the work environment of nurses on the 30-day mortality of patients hospitalized in Polish hospitals. cross-sectional studies.

BACKGROUND: An optimal work environment for nurses is characterized primarily by appropriate staffing, good team relations, and support from the management staff. These factors are consistently associated with a positive assessment of patient safety by a hospital's employees and a reduction in hospital mortality rates. AIM: To understand the relationships between the work environment as perceived by nurses on the 30-day mortality of patients treated in Polish hospitals. BACKGROUND: An optimal work environment for nurses is characterized primarily by appropriate staffing, good team relations, and support from the management staff. These factors are consistently associated with a positive assessment of patient safety by a hospital's employees and a reduction in hospital mortality rates. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The analysis used discharge data from 108,284 patients hospitalized in internal medicine and surgery departments in 21 hospitals (with 24/7 operations) in Poland. Administrative data included coded data to estimate 30-day mortality. A Nurses' satisfaction questionnaire, including the PES-NWI scale and the SAQ questionnaire, was used to assess the work environment of nurses (n = 1,929). Correlations between variables were assessed using the Pearson coefficient. The analysis used a Poisson regression model, which belongs to the class of generalized linear models. RESULTS: A lower 30-day mortality rate amongst patients was found among those treated in hospitals where the personnel feel that they may question the decisions or actions of their superiors regarding the care provided (r = - 0.50); nurses are informed about changes introduced on the basis of reports about negligence and mistakes (r = - 0.50); the ward nurse is a good manager (r = - 0.41); nurses receive timely information from the head of the department that may have an impact on their work (r = - 0.41). CONCLUSIONS: Factors related to care during hospital stay such as the organization of care at the ward level, analysis of care errors, the number of staff providing direct patient care, informing nurses about mistakes without punishment, and the possibility of nurses challenging the decisions or actions of superiors, which concerns care providing, affect the 30-day mortality of patients after the end of hospitalization in Polish hospitals.

[Perioperative stroke after aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis - incidence, risk factors and short-term outcome].

INTRODUCTION: One of the most serious complications of surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) is stroke that can result in increased rates of complications, morbidity and mortality postoperatively. The aim of this study was to investigate incidence, risk factors and short-term outcome in a well defined cohort of SAVR-patients. MATERIALS AND METHOD: A retrospective study on 740 consecutive aortic stenosis patients who underwent SAVR in Iceland 2002-2019. Patients with stroke were compared with non-stroke patients; including preoperative risk factors of cardiovascular disease, echocardiogram-results, rate of early postoperative complications other than stroke and 30 day mortality. RESULTS: Mean age was 71 yrs (34% females) with 57% of the patients receiving stented bioprosthesis, 31% a stentless Freestyle®-valve and 12% a mechanical valve. Mean EuroSCORE-II was 3.6, with a maximum preop-gradient of 70 mmHg and an estimated valvular area of 0.73 cm2. Thirteen (1.8%) patients were diagnosed with stroke where hemiplegia (n=9), loss of consciousness (n=3) and/or aphasia (n=4) were the most common presenting symptoms. In 70% of cases the neurological symptoms resolved or disappeared in the first weeks and months after surgery. Only one patient out of 13 died within 30-days (7.7%). Stroke-patients had significantly lower BMI than non-stroke patients, but other risk factors of cardiovascular diseases, intraoperative factors or the rate of other severe postoperative complications than stroke were similar between groups. Total length of stay was 14 days vs. 10 days median, including 2 vs. 1 days in the ICU, in the stroke and non-stroke-groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of stroke after SAVR was low (1.8%) and in line with other similar studies. Although a severe complication, most patients with perioperative stroke survived 30 days postoperatively and in majority of cases neurological symptoms recovered.

[Incidence and outcomes of perioperative myocardial infarction associated with coronary artery bypass surgery].

INTRODUCTION: Perioperative myocardial infarction (PMI) after CABG can contribute to in-hospital morbidity and mortality, however, its clinical significance on long-term outcome, remains inadequately addressed. We studied both 30-day mortality and long-term effects of PMI in Icelandic CABG-patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective nationwide-study on 1446 consecutive CABG-patients operated at Landspitali in Iceland 2002-2018 without evidence of preoperative myocardial infarction. PMI was defined as a tenfold elevetion in serum-CK-MB associated with new ECG changes or diagnostic imaging consistent with ischemia. Patients with PMI were compared to a reference group with uni- and multivariate analyses. Long-term and MACCE-free survival were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method and logistic regression used to determine factors associated with PMI. The mean follow-up time was 8.3 years. RESULTS: Out of 1446 patients 78 (5.4%) were diagnosed with PMI (range: 0-15.5%) with a significant annual decline in the incidence of PMI (12.7%, p<0.001). Over the same period preoperative aspirin use increased by 22.3% (p<0.018). PMI patients had a higher rate of short-term complications and a 11.5% 30-day mortality rate compared to 0.4% for non-PMI patients. PMI was found to be a predictor of 30-day mortality (OR 15.44, 95% CI: 6.89-34.67). PMI patients had worse 5-year MACCE-free survival (69.2% vs. 84.7, p=0,01), although overall survival was comparable between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Although PMI after CABG is associated with significantly higher rates of short-term complications and 30-day mortality, long-term survival was similar to the reference group. Therefore, the mortality risk attributable to PMI appears to diminish after the immediate postoperative period.

[New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation following coronary artery bypass grafting: Incidence, clinical course and short-term outcomes].

INTRODUCTION: The aims of this retrospective study were to investigate the incidence, clinical course and short term outcomes of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) following coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A nation-wide study on 1622 patients who underwent CABG from 2006-2020 at Landspitali University Hospital. Clinical data were extracted from registries and 121 patients with pre-existing AF excluded, leaving 1501 patients for further analysis. Patient charts and postoperative ECGs were manually reviewed for determining details of POAF, which was defined as a postoperative episode of AF before discharge lasting at least 5 minutes. Patients with POAF (n=483) were compared to non-POAF patients (n=1018). RESULTS: Altogether 483 (32.2%) patients developed POAF; the annual incidence decreasing over time (tau= -0,45, p=0.023). Most patients were diagnosed on the second day postoperatively (43.5%) and over 90% were diagnosed within 4 days. The median number of POAF episodes was 3 (IQR: 1-5), the first episode lasting 1-6 hours in half of the cases and the total POAF-duration being 12 hours median (IQR: 5-30). Over 94% of cases converted to sinus rythm before discharge, with 25 (5.3%) patients being discharged in AF. Most patients were treated with beta-blockers (98.8%), amiodarone (95%) and 14.9% with electric cardioversion. POAF-patients were older, had higher EuroSCORE II and a longer hospital stay, however, they had similar rates of early postoperative stroke and 30 day mortality. CONCLUSION: The incidence of POAF remains high and was associated with prolonged hospital stay, but not significantly higher 30 day mortality or early postoperative stroke compared to patients in sinus rhythm. POAF-episodes were predominantly transient and almost 95% of patients were discharged in sinus rythm.

A multi-institutional study of short-term mortality in COVID-positive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery: is survival better than expected?

PURPOSE: Early reports of 30-day mortality in COVID-positive patients with hip fracture were often over 30% and were higher than historical rates of 10% in pre-COVID studies. We conducted a multi-institutional retrospective cohort study to determine whether the incidence of 30-day mortality and complications in COVID-positive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery is as high as initially reported. METHODS: A retrospective chart review was performed at 11 level I trauma centers from January 1, 2020 to May 1, 2022. Patients 50 years or older undergoing hip fracture surgery with a positive COVID test at the time of surgery were included. The primary outcome measurements were the incidence of 30-day mortality and complications. Post-operative outcomes were reported using proportions with 95% confidence interval (C.I.). RESULTS: Forty patients with a median age of 71.5 years (interquartile range, 50-87 years) met the criteria. Within 30-days, four patients (10%; 95% C.I. 3-24%) died, four developed pneumonia, three developed thromboembolism, and three remained intubated post-operatively. Increased age was a statistically significant predictor of 30-day mortality (p = 0.01), with all deaths occurring in patients over 80 years. CONCLUSION: In this multi-institutional analysis of COVID-positive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery, 30-day mortality was 10%. The 95% C.I. did not include 30%, suggesting that survival may be better than initially reported. While COVID-positive patients with hip fractures have high short-term mortality, the clinical situation may not be as dire as initially described, which may reflect initial publication bias, selection bias introduced by testing, or other issues. LEVELS OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic Level III.

Palliative appropriateness criteria: external validation of a new method to evaluate the suitability of palliative radiotherapy fractionation.

BACKGROUND: Recently, the palliative appropriateness criteria (PAC) score, a novel metric to aid clinical decision-making between different palliative radiotherapy fractionation regimens, has been developed. It includes baseline parameters including but not limited to performance status. The researchers behind the PAC score analyzed the percent of remaining life (PRL) on treatment. The latter was accomplished by calculating the time between start and finish of palliative radiotherapy (minimum 1 day in case of a single-fraction regimen) and dividing it by overall survival in days from start of radiotherapy. The purpose of the present study was to validate this novel metric. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The retrospective validation study included 219 patients (287 courses of palliative radiotherapy). The methods were identical to those employed in the score development study. The score was calculated by assigning 1 point each to several factors identified in the original study and using the online calculator provided by the PAC developers. RESULTS: Median survival was 6 months and death within 30 days from start of radiotherapy was recorded in 13% of courses. PRL on treatment ranged from 1 to 23%, median 8%. Significant associations were confirmed between online-calculated PAC score, observed survival, and risk of death within 30 days from the start of radiotherapy. Patients with score 0 had distinctly better survival than all other groups. The score-predicted median risk of death within 30 days from start of radiotherapy was 22% in our cohort. A statistically significant correlation was found between predicted and observed risk (p < 0.001). The original and present study were not perfectly concordant regarding number and type of baseline parameters that should be included when calculating the PAC score. CONCLUSION: This study supports the dual strategy of PRL and risk of early death calculation, with results stratified for fractionation regimen, in line with the original PAC score study. When considering multifraction regimens, the PAC score identifies patients who may benefit from shorter courses. Additional work is needed to answer open questions surrounding the underlying components of the score, because the original and validation study were only partially aligned.

Association between ICU admission (neutrophil + monocyte)/lymphocyte ratio and 30-day mortality in patients with sepsis: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is an important public health issue, and it is urgent to develop valuable indicators to predict the prognosis of sepsis. Our study aims to assess the predictive value of ICU admission (Neutrophil + Monocyte)/lymphocyte ratio (NMLR) on the 30-day mortality of sepsis patients. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted in septic patients, and the data were collected from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to investigate the relation between ICU admission NMLR and 30-day mortality. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) was performed to determine the optimum cut-off value of ICU admission NMLR. Survival outcomes of the two groups with different ICU admission NMLR levels were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. RESULTS: Finally, 7292 patients were recruited in the study, of which 1601 died within 30 days of discharge. The non-survival group had higher ICU admission NMLR values than patients in the survival group (12.24 [6.44-23.67] vs. 8.71 [4.81-16.26], P < 0.001). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that ICU admission NMLR was an independent prognostic predictor on 30-day mortality (Univariate: P < 0.001; multivariate: P = 0.011). The RCS model demonstrated the upturn and non-linear relationship between ICU admission NMLR and 30-day mortality (Nonlinearity: P = 0.0124). According to the KM curve analysis,30-day survival was worse in the higher ICU admission NMLR group than that in the lower ICU admission NMLR group (Log rank test, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: The elevated ICU admission NMLR level is an independent risk factor for high 30-day mortality in patients with sepsis.

Contemporary in-hospital and long-term prognosis of patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction depending on renal function: a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease is often associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD), resulting in an increased risk for poor outcome. We sought to determine short-term mortality and overall survival in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients with different stages of CKD. METHODS: In our retrospective cohort study with health insurance claims data of the Allgemeine Ortskrankenkasse (AOK), anonymized data of all STEMI patients hospitalized between 2010 and 2017 were analyzed regarding presence and severity of concomitant CKD. RESULTS: A total of 175,187 patients had an index-hospitalisation for STEMI (without CKD: 78.6% patients, CKD stage 1: 0.8%, CKD stage 2: 4.8%, CKD stage 3: 11.7%, CKD stage 4: 2.8%, CKD stage 5: 0.7%, CKD stage 5d: 0.6%). Patients with CKD were older and had more co-morbidities than patients without CKD. With increasing CKD severity, patients received less revascularization therapies (91.2%, 85.9%, 87.0%, 81.8%, 71.7%, 76.9% and 78.6% respectively, p < 0.001). After 1 year, guideline-recommended medications were prescribed less frequently in advanced CKD (83.4%, 79.3%, 81.5%, 74.7%, 65.0%, 59.4% and 53.7%, respectively, p < 0.001). CKD stages 4, 5 and 5d as well as chronic limb threatening ischemia (CLTI) were associated with decreased overall survival [CKD stage 4: hazard ratio (HR) 1.72; 95% CI 1.66-1.78; CKD stage 5: HR 2.55; 95% CI 2.37-2.73; CKD stage 5d: 5.64; 95% CI 5.42-5.86; CLTI: 2.06; 95% CI 1.98-2.13; all p < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: CKD is a frequent co-morbidity in patients with STEMI and is associated with a worse prognosis especially in advanced stages. Guideline-recommended therapies in patients with STEMI and CKD are still underused.

Mammalian sterile 20-like kinase 1 acts as a candidate biomarker of mortality of emergency surgical repair for acute type a aortic dissection.

BACKGROUND: Acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) is a life-threatening pathological change of the aorta. Patients who have undergone aortic surgery are usually at high risk of mortality. AIM: We investigated the predictive value of serum Mammalian sterile 20-like kinase 1 (MST1) as a biomarker for the risk of mortality of ATAAD patients. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed 160 consecutive ATAAD patients who had undergone emergency surgery from July 2016 to April 2017. Medical records and blood samples were collected and analyzed. ELISA assays were performed to detect the concentrations of several proteins including MST1. The relationship between these potential biomarkers and the primary endpoint of death was evaluated using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. RESULTS: Compared with a low level (< 1330.8 ng/L), high serum MST1 level (≥ 1330.8 ng/L) was positively associated with the 30-day mortality (OR = 5.233, 95%CI, 1.843-14.862, P < 0.01) and retained predictive after adjustment for sex, age, BMI, nasopharyngeal temperature and deep hypothermia circulatory arrest time (OR = 4.628 95% CI, 1.572-13.625, P < 0.01). A pre-existing basic clinical prediction model was improved with the inclusion of preoperative serum MST1. Specifically, the area under the ROC curve for base model (history of cerebrovascular disease, creatinine, time of operation) was 0.708 (95%CI, 0.546-0.836) and markedly increased to 0.823 when taking MST1 into consideration (95%CI, 0.700-0.912, P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that high preoperative circulating MST1, with a concentration greater than 1330.8 ng/L, was correlated with the 30-day mortality of ATAAD patients who underwent emergency surgery.

Correlation between Bilirubin Elimination with the Cytokine Adsorber CytoSorb® and Mortality in Critically Ill Patients with Hyperbilirubinemia.

INTRODUCTION: Hyperbilirubinemia is often the first evidence for any kind of liver disorder and over one-third of all patients in intensive care units (ICU) show elevated bilirubin concentrations. In critically ill patients, high concentrations of serum bilirubin are correlated with a poor outcome. Therapies to lower bilirubin concentrations are often just symptomatically and their effect on the patients' outcome is hardly evaluated. Therefore, this study investigates whether the extracorporeal elimination of bilirubin with the cytokine adsorber CytoSorb® (CS) reduces mortality in patients with hyperbilirubinemia. METHODS: Patients with bilirubin concentrations >10 mg/dL at the ICU were screened for evaluation from 2018 to 2020. Patients with kidney replacement therapy and older than 18 years were included. Patients with continuously decreasing bilirubin concentrations after liver transplantation or other liver support systems (i.e., Molecular Adsorbents Recirculating System [MARS®], Advanced Organ Support [ADVOS]) were excluded. CS therapy was used in clinical routine and was indicated by the treating physicians. Statistical analysis was performed with IBM SPSS statistics utilizing a multivariate model. Primary outcome measure was the effect of CS on the 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Data from 82 patients (mean Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS] II: 74 points, mean bilirubin: 18 mg/dL, mean lactate: 3.7 mmol/L) were analyzed. There were no significant differences in patients with and without CS treatment. The multivariate model showed no significant effect of CS therapy (p = 0.402) on the 30-day mortality. In addition, a significant effect of bilirubin concentration (p = 0.274) or Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (p = 0.928) on the 30-day mortality could not be shown. In contrast, lactate concentration (p = 0.001, b = 0.044) and SAPS II (p = 0.025, b = 0.008) had significant impact on 30-day mortality. CONCLUSION: The use of CS in patients with hyperbilirubinemia did not result in a significant reduction in 30-day mortality. Randomized and controlled studies with mortality as primary outcome measure are needed in the future to justify their use.

Association between nutritional status scores and the 30-day mortality in patients with acute kidney injury: an analysis of MIMIC-III database.

BACKGROUND: Studies have proven that the risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) increased in patients with malnutrition. Prognostic nutritional index (PNI) and geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) were general tools to predict the risk of mortality, but the prognostic value of them for in-hospital mortality among patients with AKI have not been validated yet. Herein, this study aims to explore the association between PNI and GNRI and 30-day mortality in patients with AKI. METHODS: Demographic and clinical data of 863 adult patients with AKI were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database in 2001-2012 in this retrospective cohort study. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional regression analyses were used to explore the association between PNI and GNRI and 30-day mortality. The evaluation indexes were hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Subgroup analyses of age, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and Simplified Acute Physiology (SAPS-II) score were also performed. RESULTS: Totally, 222 (26.71%) patients died within 30 days. After adjusting for covariates, PNI ≥ 28.5 [HR = 0.71, 95%CI: (0.51-0.98)] and GNRI ≥ 83.25 [HR = 0.63, 95%CI: (0.47-0.86)] were both associated with low risk of 30-day mortality. These relationships were also found in patients who aged ≥ 65 years old. Differently, high PNI level was associated with low risk of 30-day mortality among patients with SOFA score < 6 or SAPS-II score < 43, while high GNRI was associated with low risk of 30-day mortality among those who with SOFA score ≥ 6 or SAPS-II score ≥ 43 (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: PNI and GNRI may be potential predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with AKI. Whether the PNI is more recommended for patients with mild AKI, while GNRI for those with severe AKI is needed further exploration.