Fire Responses Shape Plant Communities in a Minimal Model for Fire Ecosystems across the World.

AbstractAcross plant communities worldwide, fire regimes reflect a combination of climatic factors and plant characteristics. To shed new light on the complex relationships between plant characteristics and fire regimes, we developed a new conceptual mechanistic model that includes plant competition, stochastic fires, and fire-vegetation feedback. Considering a single standing plant functional type, we observed that highly flammable and slowly colonizing plants can persist only when they have a strong fire response, while fast colonizing and less flammable plants can display a larger range of fire responses. At the community level, the fire response of the strongest competitor determines the existence of alternative ecological states (i.e., different plant communities) under the same environmental conditions. Specifically, when the strongest competitor had a very strong fire response, such as in Mediterranean forests, only one ecological state could be achieved. Conversely, when the strongest competitor was poorly fire adapted, alternative ecological states emerged-for example, between tropical humid savannas and forests or between different types of boreal forests. These findings underline the importance of including the plant fire response when modeling fire ecosystems, for example, to predict the vegetation response to invasive species or to climate change.

Geospatial Modeling of Containment Probability for Escaped Wildfires in a Mediterranean Region.

Despite escalating expenditures in firefighting, extreme fire events continue to pose a major threat to ecosystem services and human communities in Mediterranean areas. Developing a safe and effective fire response is paramount to efficiently restrict fire spread, reduce negative effects to natural values, prevent residential housing losses, and avoid causalties. Though current fire policies in most countries demand full suppression, few studies have attempted to identify the strategic locations where firefighting efforts would likely contain catastrophic fire events. The success in containing those fires that escape initial attack is determined by diverse structural factors such as ground accessibility, airborne support, barriers to surface fire spread, and vegetation impedance. In this study, we predicted the success in fire containment across Catalonia (northeastern Spain) using a model generated with random forest from detailed geospatial data and a set of 73 fire perimeters for the period 2008-2016. The model attained a high predictive performance (AUC = 0.88), and the results were provided at fine resolution (25 m) for the entire study area (32,108 km2 ). The highest success rates were found in agricultural plains along the nonburnable barriers such as major road corridors and largest rivers. Low levels of containment likelihood were predicted for dense forest lands and steep-relief mountainous areas. The results can assist in suppression resource pre-positioning and extended attack decision making, but also in strategic fuels management oriented at creating defensive locations and fragmenting the landscape in operational firefighting areas. Our modeling workflow and methods may serve as a baseline to generate locally adapted models in fire-prone areas elsewhere.

Fire-mediated habitat change regulates woodland bird species and functional group occurrence.

In an era characterized by recurrent large wildfires in many parts of the globe, there is a critical need to understand how animal species respond to fires, the rates at which populations can recover, and the functional changes fires may cause. Using quantified changes in habitat parameters over a ~400-yr post-fire chronosequence in an obligate-seeding Australian eucalypt woodland, we build and test predictions of how birds, as individual species and aggregated into functional groups according to their use of specific habitat resources, respond to time since fire. Individual bird species exhibited four generalized response types to time since fire: incline, decline, delayed, and bell. All significant relationships between bird functional group richness or abundance and time since fire were consistent with predictions based on known time-since-fire-associated changes in habitat features putatively important for these bird groups. Consequently, we argue that the bird community is responding to post-fire successional changes in habitat as per the habitat accommodation model, rather than to time since fire per se, and that our functional framework will be of value in predicting bird responses to future disturbances in this and other obligate-seeder forest and woodland ecosystems. Most bird species and functional groups that were affected by time since fire were associated with long-unburned woodlands. In the context of recent large, stand-replacement wildfires that have affected a substantial proportion of obligate-seeder eucalypt woodlands, and the multi-century timescales over which post-fire succession occurs, it would appear preferable from a bird conservation perspective if fires initiating loss of currently long-unburned woodlands were minimized. Once long-unburned woodlands are transformed by fire into recently burned woodlands, there is limited scope for alternative management interventions to accelerate the rate of habitat development after fire, or supplement the resources formerly provided to birds by long-unburned woodlands, with the limited exception of augmenting hollow availability for key hollow-nesting species.

Modeling variability in the fire response of an endangered bird to improve fire-management.

Conservation managers regularly burn vegetation to regenerate habitat for fire-dependent species. When determining the time since fire at which to burn, managers model change in a species' occurrence over time, post-fire (fire-response curve) and identify the time since fire associated with decline in occurrence. However, where species exhibit variability in their fire response across space, using a single fire-response curve to determine the timing of burns may lead to burning habitat at an inappropriate time since fire. We tested if elevation, local topography, soil properties, vegetation type or evapotranspiration affect the fire response of the endangered Mallee Emu-wren Stipiturus mallee and its hummock-grass habitat Triodia scariosa in southeastern Australia (n = 217). Previous work on the Mallee Emu-wren found a unimodal fire response with decline in occurrence at ~30-50 yr since fire and a time window of occurrence of ~30 yr. We found that time since fire and elevation interact to affect the Mallee Emu-wren fire response. At high elevations (55-98 m), Mallee Emu-wrens declined in occurrence at ~50 yr since fire, with a time window of occurrence of 20-40 yr. However, at low elevations (28-55 m), Mallee Emu-wrens showed no decline in occurrence with increasing time since fire with a time window of occurrence of up to 107 yr. Extent cover of Tall T. scariosa showed similar patterns to the Mallee Emu-wren, indicating that vegetation structure is a likely driver of variability in the Mallee Emu-wren fire response. We speculate that the effect of low elevation is mediated by increased soil nutrient and water availability for key plants. We used our findings to map the appropriate time since fire at which to burn to regenerate habitat for the Mallee Emu-wren across the study region. We recommend no burning for regeneration across one-third of potential habitat, because the Mallee Emu-wren showed no decline in occurrence in these areas. We recommend managers model variability in species' fire responses across space to improve the timing of burns for regeneration.

A systematic review of resprouting in woody plants and potential implications for the management of urban plantings.

Naturalistic plantings, such as meadow-style plantings, can improve the quality of urban green spaces through aesthetic, biodiversity and low maintenance features. Species selection for, and maintenance of naturalistic plantings are key to their success. While herbaceous and grassy meadows can be mowed, naturalistic plantings with woody plants require more intense maintenance to remove biomass and promote resprouting. We aim to understand woody plant responses to diverse disturbance regimes to potentially inform the selection and management of woody species in urban plantings. We conducted a quantitative systematic literature review of 72 papers and investigated what main external (climate, disturbance regime) and internal (buds, life stage, storage reserves) factors influence the resprouting response of woody plants. We found resprouting literature is geographically widespread for woody plants, but studies are skewed towards Temperate climates in USA and Australia, with a focus on high severity and high frequency fire disturbance. Resprouting response was mostly defined as a continuous response to disturbance dependent on disturbance regime, climate and plant traits. Maintenance and management of naturalistic woody plantings, through hard pruning techniques such as coppicing, may be informed by analogous high severity and high frequency disturbance studies. However, the literature on woody plant resprouting has several knowledge gaps for lower severity and lower frequency disturbance regimes and in more arid climates. Future research should evaluate the response of naturalistic woody plantings to disturbance in specific urban contexts.

Development and Validation of Earthquake Fire Response Simulation Protocol for Korean College Students in Health Programs.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the adequacy of the developed protocol by verifying the validity of the expert group for the earthquake and fire response simulation protocol. A protocol development team consisting of one emergency rescue professor, one counseling psychology professor, three paramedics, and one firefighter developed the study's protocols to promote the core response and capabilities required at an earthquake fire site. We checked the content validity for the appropriateness of the contextual connection for each stage for the protocol. We also created an evaluation checklist to measure the items for each stage. The protocol developed in this study consists of earthquake response, fire response, evacuation, and fire suppression. We set the situation for each stage and composed learner activities and learning performance goals. The earthquake response stage included (1) shout "it's an earthquake," (2) protect yourself, (3) turn off electricity and gas, and (4) evacuate to a safe place. In the fire response stage, (1) shout "fire," (2) press the emergency bell and call 119, (3) close the door of a dangerous place where fire can spread, and (4) evacuate to a safe place. In the evacuation stage, (1) open the emergency exit, (2) cover your nose and mouth, (3) lower your posture, and (4) evacuate quickly in one direction. Lastly, in the firefighting stage, (1) pull out the safety pin, (2) hold the nozzle and face the fire, (3) grab the handle, and (4) spray the powder evenly. The protocol contributes to the development of systematic and elaborate simulation education materials in the future. Furthermore, it provides basic data for future disaster simulation operation and protocol development through continuous training and practical exercises.

Modeling initial attack success of wildfire suppression in Catalonia, Spain.

In southern European regions, the few fires that escape initial attack (IA) account for most of the burned area. Nonetheless, limited effort has been conducted to develop spatiotemporal models aiming at improving pre-positioning and deployment of fire-fighting brigades on the first dispatch. To this end, we calibrated a model to assess the probability of containment of fire by IA in Catalonia (northeastern Spain). The model was trained using machine learning algorithms from georeferenced historical fire ignition locations, fire response and weather conditions. Our results indicated that early detection, ground accessibility, and aerial support governed the broad spatial pattern of fire containment probability, with strong gradients that ranged from lowest chances of containment in northwestern mountains to highest in the coastal belt. In turn, weather conditions and fire simultaneity were crucial to explain the differences during wildfire season. We found that fires igniting above the 85th percentile of temperature and wind speed, during simultaneous fire episodes (n > 10), and 12.5 km away from the nearest fire station will probably escape IA, and grow into large events. These hazardous fire danger conditions were met 13 days per year on average during the period 1998-2015, with 5 fire simultaneous episodes escaping IA that burned 1546 ha in total. Results were provided as a set of high-resolution raster grids (100 m), which replicated the most typical weather and fire occurrence scenarios that first responders are likely to face during the wildfire season. This study reveals existing limitations in the dominant fire exclusion policy of Mediterranean areas and advocates for a comprehensive long-term wildfire management solution. Our model may help inform science-based decision-making on IA and general fire response planning in the study area.

Seed size and seedling emergence: an allometric relationship and some ecological implications.

We develop a geometric model predicting that maximum seedling emergence depth should scale as the cube root of seed weight. We tested the prediction by planting seeds from 17 species ranging in weight from 0.1 to 100 mg at a variety of depths in a sand medium. The species were spread across 16 genera and 13 families, all occurring in fire-prone fynbos shrublands of South Africa. Maximum emergence depth was found to scale allometrically with seed weight with an exponent of 0.334, close to the predicted value. We used the allometry to predict recruitment response to experimentally simulated variation in fire intensity. Five species with small (<2 mg) seeds and five with large (>10 mg) seeds were planted at ≤20-mm and 40-mm depths and exposed to low and high heat treatments and a control. The allometric equation predicted that species with large seeds would be able to emerge from a depth of 40 mm but those with small seeds would not. Only 1% of 481 seedlings from small-seeded species emerged from the 40-mm planting compared with 40% of 626 seedlings from the large-seeded group. The simulated fire treatments killed seeds in shallow, but not deeper, soil layers. At simulated high fire intensities, seedling emergence was poor in small-seeded species but good in large-seeded species, with most seedlings emerging from the 40-mm planting depth. Seed size could be a useful general predictor of recruitment success under different fire intensities in this system. We suggest that allometric relationships in plants deserve wider attention as predictive tools.