Science, evidence, law, and justice.

For nearly 25 y, the Committee on Science, Technology, and Law (CSTL), of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, has brought together distinguished members of the science and law communities to stimulate discussions that would lead to a better understanding of the role of science in legal decisions and government policies and to a better understanding of the legal and regulatory frameworks that govern the conduct of science. Under the leadership of recent CSTL co-chairs David Baltimore and David Tatel, and CSTL director Anne-Marie Mazza, the committee has overseen many interdisciplinary discussions and workshops, such as the international summits on human genome editing and the science of implicit bias, and has delivered advisory consensus reports focusing on topics of broad societal importance, such as dual use research in the life sciences, voting systems, and advances in neural science research using organoids and chimeras. One of the most influential CSTL activities concerns the use of forensic evidence by law enforcement and the courts, with emphasis on the scientific validity of forensic methods and the role of forensic testimony in bringing about justice. As coeditors of this Special Feature, CSTL alumni Tom Albright and Jennifer Mnookin have recruited articles at the intersection of science and law that reveal an emerging scientific revolution of forensic practice, which we hope will engage a broad community of scientists, legal scholars, and members of the public with interest in science-based legal policy and justice reform.

How to make better forensic decisions.

Much of forensic practice today involves human decisions about the origins of patterned sensory evidence, such as tool marks and fingerprints discovered at a crime scene. These decisions are made by trained observers who compare the evidential pattern to an exemplar pattern produced by the suspected source of the evidence. The decision consists of a determination as to whether the two patterns are similar enough to have come from the same source. Although forensic pattern comparison disciplines have for decades played a valued role in criminal investigation and prosecution, the extremely high personal and societal costs of failure-the conviction of innocent people-has elicited calls for caution and for the development of better practices. These calls have been heard by the scientific community involved in the study of human information processing, which has begun to offer much-needed perspectives on sensory measurement, discrimination, and classification in a forensic context. Here I draw from a well-established theoretical and empirical approach in sensory science to illustrate the vulnerabilities of contemporary pattern comparison disciplines and to suggest specific strategies for improvement.

Clinical Validation of Selected NIH Cognitive Toolbox Tasks in Pediatric Epilepsy.

The NIH Toolbox Cognition Battery (NIHTB-CB) is designed to assess cognitive functioning across the lifespan. We aimed to evaluate the clinical validity of two NIHTB-CB tasks as cognitive screening tools in pediatric epilepsy by comparing them to standard neuropsychological measures and their association with epilepsy characteristics. Forty-seven patients with epilepsy ages 5-18, including ten repeat evaluations, were assessed. Correlational analyses and agreement statistics were conducted to validate NIHTB-CB tasks (Flanker Inhibitory Control and Attention test (Flanker) and Pattern Comparison Processing Speed test (Pattern Comparison)) with standard clinical measures. We also examined if performance was related to epilepsy characteristics, including polytherapy, age of seizure onset, seizure type, and history of Electrical Status Epilepticus in Sleep (ESES). The NIHTB-CB tests had moderate to strong correlations with neuropsychological measures of executive functioning, processing speed, and intelligence. Agreement statistics indicated better sensitivity than specificity. Polytherapy and later age of seizure onset were associated with lower performance on Pattern Comparison. ESES patients did not significantly differ in performance on the tests compared to non-ESES patients. Pilot data from a subset of repeated measures indicated a good range of change scores. These two NIHTB tasks are feasible as a screening tool in a clinic given their correlation with clinical measures that assess executive function, processing speed, and IQ. This study supports the use of these tasks as brief, easily accessible screener tools to identify cognitive dysfunction in domains commonly impacted in patients with epilepsy and potential use for monitoring over time.

The dynamic shaping of local cortical circuitry by sex and age, and its relation to pattern comparison processing speed.

Previous resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have shown that the strength of local neural interactions decreases with distance. Here, we extend that line of research to evaluate effects of sex and age on local cortical circuitry in six cortical areas (superior frontal, precentral, postcentral, superior parietal, inferior parietal, and lateral occipital) using data acquired from 1,054 healthy young adults who participated in the Human Connectome Project. We confirmed previous findings that the strength of zero-lag correlations between prewhitened, resting-state, blood level oxygenation-dependent (BOLD) fMRI time series decreased with distance locally and documented that the rate of decrease with distance (spatial steepness) 1) was progressively lower from anterior to posterior areas, 2) was greater in women, especially in anterior areas, 3) increased with age, particularly for women, 4) was significantly correlated with percent inhibition, and 5) was positively and highly significantly correlated with pattern comparison processing speed (PCPS). A hierarchical tree clustering analysis of this dependence of PCPS on spatial steepness revealed a differential organization in processing that information between the two hemispheres, namely, a more independent vs. a more integrative processing in the left and right hemispheres, respectively. These findings document sex and age differences in dynamic local cortical interactions and provide evidence that spatial sharpening of these interactions may underlie cognitive processing speed differently organized in the two hemispheres.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Sex and age significantly affect shaping of local cortical interactions that are more limited in women and older brains. The net result is an increase in local spatial steepness of interactions, leading to a reduction of overlap among local ensembles and, hence, a more efficient information processing and an increase in the number of independent local cortical "processors." Remarkably, cognitive processing speed was positively associated with local spatial steepness, in keeping with the reasoning earlier.

How signature complexity affects expert and lay ability to distinguish genuine, disguised and simulated signatures.

This study examined how variations in signature complexity affected the ability of forensic document examiners (FDEs) and laypeople to determine whether signatures are authentic or simulated (forged), as well as whether they are disguised. Forty-five FDEs from nine countries evaluated nine different signature comparisons in this online study. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses revealed that FDEs performed in excess of chance levels, but performance varied as a function of signature complexity: Sensitivity (the true-positive rate) did not differ much between complexity levels (i.e., 65% vs. 79% vs. 79% for low vs medium vs high complexity), but specificity (the true-negative rate) was the highest (95%) for the medium complexity signatures and lowest (73%) for low complexity signatures. The specificity of high-complexity signatures (83%) was between these values. The sensitivity for disguised comparisons was only 11% and did not vary across complexity levels. One hundred-one novices also completed the study. A comparison of the area under the ROC curve (AUCs) revealed that FDEs outperformed novices in medium and high-complexity signatures but not low-complexity signatures. Novices also struggled to detect disguised signatures. While these findings elucidate the role of signature complexity in lay and expert evaluations, the error rates observed here may differ from those in forensic practice due to differences in the experimental stimuli and circumstances under which they were evaluated. This investigation of the role of signature complexity in the evaluation process was not intended to estimate error rates in forensic practice.

Not all identification conclusions are equal: Quantifying the strength of fingerprint decisions.

In the pattern comparison disciplines, forensic practitioners evaluate two impressions with respect to the same-source and different-sources propositions. The results are communicated using a pre-determined conclusion scale, and in the friction ridge discipline Identification is typically the highest category on the scale for reporting evidence supporting the same source proposition. Although error rates have been measured in most disciplines, there are no widespread quantitative approaches and therefore most conclusions rely on subjective human evaluations. The current work uses articulation decisions provided by fingerprint examiners in error rate studies to produce a quantitative likelihood ratio measure that characterizes the strength of the support for the two propositions. We use an ordered probit model to summarize the distribution of responses of examiners who participated in error rate and validation studies. We then aggregate the data for all image pairs in a database to construct a set of likelihood ratios based on the ratio of the two strength-of-support values. We find that these values are modest relative to values typically produced by DNA analysis or implied by current fingerprint articulation language. The technique can be applied to any pattern comparison discipline for which error-rate data is available, and therefore can be used to appropriately weigh the evidence from different disciplines.

Research on detection techniques for pattern modifications of playing cards used in illegal gambling operations.

We investigated pattern-modified marked cards used in fraudulent gambling cases in Korea. These cards are printed with modifications to some of the repeated marks on the back, revealing the hand on the front and enabling fraudsters to deceive their victims. We proposed a method for identifying the modified part by first enhancing the card's color difference using an image processing technique and then calculating the similarity between the repeated basic patterns with a Siamese network. This method is fast and convenient, as it can determine the deformation with only 1 or 2 cards and can be implemented in mobile applications, allowing law enforcement officers to investigate quickly. The proposed method serves as a useful tool to aid document examiners in making judgments, as it does not require expensive equipment and effectively visualizes the alterations.

Comparison of Injury Patterns between Electric Bicycle, Bicycle and Motorcycle Accidents.

BACKGROUND: Electric bicycles (E-bikes) are an increasingly popular means of transport, and have been designed for a higher speed comparable to that of small motorcycles. Accident statistics show that E-bikes are increasingly involved in traffic accidents. To test the hypothesis of whether accidents involving E-bikes bear more resemblance to motorcycle accidents than conventional bicyclists, this study evaluates the injury pattern and severity of E-bike injuries in direct comparison to injuries involving motorcycle and bicycle accidents. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, the data of 1796 patients who were treated at a Level I Trauma Center between 2009 and 2018 due to traffic accident, involving bicycles, E-bikes or motorcycles, were evaluated and compared with regard to injury patterns and injury severity. Accident victims treated as inpatients at least 16 years of age or older were included in this study. Pillion passengers and outpatients were excluded. RESULTS: The following distribution was found in the individual groups: 67 E-bike, 1141 bicycle and 588 motorcycle accidents. The injury pattern of E-bikers resembled that of bicyclists much more than that of motorcyclists. The patients with E-bike accidents were almost 14 years older and had a higher incidence of moderate traumatic brain injuries than patients with bicycle accidents, in spite of the fact that E-bike riders were nearly twice as likely to wear a helmet as compared to bicycle riders. The rate of pelvic injuries in E-bike accidents was twice as high compared with bicycle accidents, whereas the rate of upper extremity injuries was higher following bicycle accidents. Conclusion: The overall E-bike injury pattern is similar to that of cyclists. The differences in the injury pattern to motorcycle accidents could be due to the higher speeds at the time of the accident, the different protection and vehicle architecture. What is striking, however, is the higher age and the increased craniocerebral trauma of the E-bikers involved in accidents compared to the cyclists. We speculate that older and untrained people who have a slower reaction time and less control over the E-bike could benefit from head protection or practical courses similar to motorcyclists.

Matching walking speed of controls affects identification of gait deviations in patients with a total knee replacement.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of functional recovery of patients after a total knee replacement includes the quantification of gait deviations. Comparisons to comfortable gait of healthy controls may incorrectly suggest biomechanical gait deviations, since the usually lower walking speed of patients already causes biomechanical differences. Moreover, taking peak values as parameter might not be sensitive to actual differences. Therefore, this study investigates the effect of matching walking speed and full-waveform versus discrete analyses. METHODS: Gait biomechanics of 25 knee replacement patients were compared to 22 controls in two ways: uncorrected and corrected for walking speed employing principal component analyses, to reconstruct control gait biomechanics at walking speeds matched to the patients. Ankle, knee and hip kinematics and kinetics were compared over the full gait cycle using statistical parametric mapping against using peak values. FINDINGS: All joint kinematics and kinetics gait data were impacted by applying walking speed correction, especially the kinetics of the knee. The lower control walking speeds used for reference generally reduced the magnitude of differences between patient and control gait, however some were enlarged. Full-waveform analysis identified greater deviating gait cycle regions beyond the peaks, but did not make peak value analyses redundant. INTERPRETATION: Matching walking speed of controls affects identification of gait deviations in patients with a total knee replacement, reducing deviations confounded by walking speed and revealing hidden gait deviations related to possible compensations. Full-waveform analysis should be used along peak values for a comprehensive quantification of differences in gait biomechanics.

The NIH Toolbox Pattern Comparison Processing Speed Test: Normative Data.

The NIH Toolbox Pattern Comparison Processing Speed Test was developed to assess processing speed. While initial validation work provides preliminary support for this test in both children and adults, more work is needed to ensure dependability and generalizability. Thus, this replication study examines descriptive data (including age effects), test-retest reliability, and construct validity in n = 4,859 participants ages 3-85 years (matched to 2010 census data). Although the Pattern Comparison was not appropriate for all 3 and 4 years old, by ages 5 and 6, more meaningful scores were apparent. There was evidence for convergent and discriminant validity. There was also a moderate practice effect (i.e., increase of 5.5 points) over a 1-week time frame. Pattern Comparison exhibits a number of strengths: it is appropriate for use across the lifespan (ages 5-85), it is short and easy to administer, and there is support for construct validity.

On the value of probability for evaluating results of comparative pattern analyses.

This letter to the Editor comments on the article Practical relevance of pattern uniqueness in forensic science by P.T. Jayaprakash (Forensic Science International, in press).