Opposition to voluntary and mandated COVID-19 vaccination as a dynamic process: Evidence and policy implications of changing beliefs.

SignificanceThe challenge of securing adherence to public health policies is compounded when an emerging threat and a set of unprecedented remedies are not fully understood among the general public. The evolution of citizens' attitudes toward vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic offers psychologically and sociologically grounded insights that enrich the conventional incentives- and constraints-based approach to policy design. We thus contribute to a behavioral science of policy compliance during public health emergencies of the kind that we may increasingly face in the future. From early in the pandemic, we have tracked the same individuals, providing a lens into the conditions under which people's attitudes toward voluntary and mandated vaccinations change, providing essential information for COVID-19 policy not available from cross-section data.

The Economics of Treatment for Depression.

The global prevalence of depression has risen over the past three decades across all socioeconomic groups and geographic regions, with a particularly rapid increase in prevalence among adolescents (aged 12-17 years) in the United States. Depression imposes large health, economic, and societal costs, including reduced life span and quality of life, medical costs, and reduced educational attainment and workplace productivity. A wide range of treatment modalities for depression are available, but socioeconomic disparities in treatment access are driven by treatment costs, lack of culturally tailored options, stigma, and provider shortages, among other barriers. This review highlights the need for comparative research to better understand treatments' relative efficacy, cost-effectiveness, scalability, and potential heterogeneity in efficacy across socioeconomic groups and country and cultural contexts. To address the growing burden of depression, mental health policy could consider reducing restrictions on the supply of providers, implementing digital interventions, reducing stigma, and promoting healthy lifestyles.

Is this advertisement designed to appeal to you? Adolescents' views about Instagram advertisements promoting ultra-processed products.

OBJECTIVE: Examine the key elements that characterise social media advertisements targeted at adolescents by asking adolescents which features of Instagram ads promoting ultra-processed products make them designed to appeal to adolescents. DESIGN: Instagram ads promoting ultra-processed products and brands were selected from a database in which ads had been classified regarding whether they were primarily targeted at adolescents from an adult perspective. Adolescents completed a sorting task in small groups and were requested to reach a consensus through discussions and sticky notes regarding whether sixty ads were designed to appeal to them. The sorting task was analysed using content analysis based on inductive coding. SETTING: One private secondary school and two after-school clubs. PARTICIPANTS: Convenience sample of 105 Uruguayan adolescents aged 11-17 years. RESULTS: Ten categories were identified regarding the reasons for sorting ads as (not) designed to appeal to adolescents: product type, graphic design, explicit references to age groups, language, activities or themes, memes, celebrities, characters, promotions and novelty. Product type emerged as a key element, with adolescents perceiving ads as designed to appeal to them simply because they promoted specific products. CONCLUSIONS: This research contributes to the validation of criteria defined in previous studies and can be used for the development of tools to monitor the prevalence and power of adolescent-targeted digital marketing. However, the importance attributed to type of product suggests that regulations should not exclusively focus on exposure to digital marketing specifically targeted at adolescents but also on exposure to marketing in general.

Public health and economic benefits of seasonal influenza vaccination in risk groups in France, Italy, Spain and the UK: state of play and perspectives.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza epidemics have a substantial public health and economic burden, which can be alleviated through vaccination. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a 75% vaccination coverage rate (VCR) in: older adults (aged ≥ 65 years), individuals with chronic conditions, pregnant women, children aged 6-24 months and healthcare workers. However, no European country achieves this target in all risk groups. In this study, potential public health and economic benefits achieved by reaching 75% influenza VCR was estimated in risk groups across four European countries: France, Italy, Spain, and the UK. METHODS: A static epidemiological model was used to estimate the averted public health and economic burden of increasing the 2021/2022 season VCR to 75%, using the efficacy data of standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine. For each country and risk group, the most recent data on population size, VCR, pre-pandemic influenza epidemiology, direct medical costs and absenteeism were identified through a systematic literature review, supplemented by manual searching. Outcomes were: averted influenza cases, general practitioner (GP) visits, hospitalisations, case fatalities, number of days of work lost, direct medical costs and absenteeism-related costs. RESULTS: As of the 2021/2022 season, the UK achieved the highest weighted VCR across risk groups (65%), followed by Spain (47%), France (44%) and Italy (44%). Based on modelling, the 2021/2022 VCR prevented an estimated 1.9 million influenza cases, avoiding 375,200 GP visits, 73,200 hospitalisations and 38,400 deaths. To achieve the WHO 75% VCR target, an additional 24 million at-risk individuals would need to be vaccinated, most of which being older adults and patients with chronic conditions. It was estimated that this could avoid a further 918,200 influenza cases, 332,000 GP visits, 16,300 hospitalisations and 6,300 deaths across the four countries, with older adults accounting for 52% of hospitalisations and 80% of deaths. An additional €84 million in direct medical costs and €79 million in absenteeism costs would be saved in total, with most economic benefits delivered in France. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults represent most vaccine-preventable influenza cases and deaths, followed by individuals with chronic conditions. Health authorities should prioritise vaccinating these populations for maximum public health and economic benefits.

'Staying in the lane' of public health? Boundary-work in the roles of state health officials and experts in COVID-19 policymaking.

The state-level COVID-19 response in the United States necessitated collaboration between governor' offices, health departments and numerous other departments and outside experts. To gain insight into how health officials and experts contributed to advising on COVID-19 policies, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 25 individuals with a health specialisation who were involved in COVID-19 policymaking, taking place between February and December 2022. We found two diverging understandings of the role of health officials and experts in COVID-19 policymaking: the role of 'staying in the lane' of public health in terms of the information that they collected, their advocacy for policies and their area of expertise and the role of engaging in the balancing of multiple considerations, such as public health, feasibility and competing objectives (such as the economy) in the crafting of pandemic policy. We draw on the concept of boundary-work to examine how these roles were constructed. We conclude by considering the appropriateness as well as the ethical implications of these two approaches to public health policymaking.

Breathing in danger: Understanding the multifaceted impact of air pollution on health impacts.

Air pollution, a pervasive environmental threat that spans urban and rural landscapes alike, poses significant risks to human health, exacerbating respiratory conditions, triggering cardiovascular problems, and contributing to a myriad of other health complications across diverse populations worldwide. This article delves into the multifarious impacts of air pollution, utilizing cutting-edge research methodologies and big data analytics to offer a comprehensive overview. It highlights the emergence of new pollutants, their sources, and characteristics, thereby broadening our understanding of contemporary air quality challenges. The detrimental health effects of air pollution are examined thoroughly, emphasizing both short-term and long-term impacts. Particularly vulnerable populations are identified, underscoring the need for targeted health risk assessments and interventions. The article presents an in-depth analysis of the global disease burden attributable to air pollution, offering a comparative perspective that illuminates the varying impacts across different regions. Furthermore, it addresses the economic ramifications of air pollution, quantifying health and economic losses, and discusses the implications for public policy and health care systems. Innovative air pollution intervention measures are explored, including case studies demonstrating their effectiveness. The paper also brings to light recent discoveries and insights in the field, setting the stage for future research directions. It calls for international cooperation in tackling air pollution and underscores the crucial role of public awareness and education in mitigating its impacts. This comprehensive exploration serves not only as a scientific discourse but also as a clarion call for action against the invisible but insidious threat of air pollution, making it a vital read for researchers, policymakers, and the general public.

The approach to developing Ireland's first national health protection strategy and lessons learnt, December 2021 to October 2022.

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of strengthening health protection worldwide. To address this as a public health priority in Ireland, between December 2021 and October 2022 the first national Health Protection Strategy (2022-2027) for the Irish Health Service Executive (HSE) was developed. We describe the approach taken to develop a first national health protection strategy for Ireland, and highlight the key lessons learned. Key steps in strategy formation included detailed stakeholder analysis, exploration of the context for the strategy and development of a comprehensive consultation plan. Two stakeholder consultation workshops were held. The first focused on defining strategic vision, aim and objectives, the second verified objectives and identified enablers. A subsequent e-consultation invited feedback from wider stakeholders. The published strategy outlines 10 strategic objectives and 11 enablers. Key lessons identified from the strategy development process include the importance of clear leadership and oversight, the value of identifying the context for change, ensuring adequate consultation planning, taking a multidisciplinary approach with strong stakeholder engagement and the need to maintain a strategic perspective. Lessons from our experience can support colleagues internationally to strategically set out their priorities for health protection beyond COVID-19.

HIV-infected Latin American asylum seekers in Madrid, Spain, 2022: A prospective cohort study from a major gateway in Europe.

BackgroundRecent migration trends have shown a notable entry of Latin American asylum seekers to Madrid, Spain.AimTo characterise the profile of asylum-seeking Latin American migrants who are living with HIV in Spain and to outline the barriers they face in accessing HIV treatment.MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted between 2022 and 2023 with a 6-month follow-up period. Latin American asylum seekers living with HIV were recruited mainly from non-governmental organisations and received care at an HIV clinic in a public hospital in Madrid.ResultsWe included 631 asylum seekers. The primary countries of origin were Colombia (30%), Venezuela (30%) and Peru (18%). The median age was 32 years (interquartile range (IQR): 28-37), and 553 (88%) were cis men of which 94% were men who have sex with men. Upon their arrival, 49% (n = 309) lacked social support, and 74% (n = 464) faced barriers when attempting to access the healthcare system. Upon entry in Europe, 500 (77%) participants were taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). At their first evaluation at the HIV clinic, only 386 (61%) had continued taking ART and 33% (n = 209) had detectable plasma HIV-1 RNA levels. Six months later, 99% took ART and 98% had achieved an undetectable viral load.ConclusionsLatin American asylum seekers living with HIV in Madrid, Spain encountered barriers to healthcare and to ART. One-third of these individuals presented detectable HIV viral load when assessed in the HIV clinic, highlighting this as an important public health issue.

Alcohol-related emergency department presentations and hospital admissions around the time of minimum unit pricing in Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Minimum unit pricing (MUP) was recently introduced in Ireland to reduce alcohol-related harms. The size of the impact of alcohol on hospital emergency departments (EDs) in Ireland is poorly understood due to inconsistent alcohol screening and documentation. AIMS: We sought to systematically characterise the volume, timing, and nature of alcohol-related presentations and admissions to a busy urban ED in Dublin, Ireland. METHOD: Patients presenting to the ED were assessed by a dedicated clinician during selected time periods before (Nov-Dec 2021) and after (Feb-Apr 2022) the introduction of MUP. A total of 725 interviews were conducted over 168 h in the ED. FINDINGS: Alcohol consumption was a factor in 19.4% of ED presentations and in 17.3% of hospital admissions across the entire study period. A reduction in overall alcohol-related ED presentations was noted in the period following MUP, although it is not possible to conclude a direct effect. CONCLUSION: Alcohol-related harm places a significant strain on EDs and hospitals, and the impact of MUP on hospital burden in Ireland merits further evaluation. Effective measures at local and population levels are urgently required to address this burden.

The prevalence of developmental defects of enamel in people with cystic fibrosis: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Oral health impacts systemic health, individual well-being, and quality of life. It is important to identify conditions that may exacerbate oral disease to aid public health and policy development and promote targeted patient treatment strategies. Developmental defects can increase an individual's risk of dental caries, hypersensitivity, premature tooth wear, erosion, and poor aesthetics. As part of an ongoing study assessing oral health in adults with cystic fibrosis at Cork University Dental School and Hospital, a systematic review of available literature was conducted to assess the prevalence of enamel defects in people with cystic fibrosis. AIMS: To critically evaluate the literature to determine if the prevalence of developmental defects of enamel is higher in people with cystic fibrosis (PwCF). METHODS: Data Sources: Three online databases were searched Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science Core Collection. Studies that examined an association between cystic fibrosis and developmental defects of enamel were included in this systematic review. RESULTS: The initial search identified 116 publications from the following databases Embase, Web of Science Core Collection, and Scopus. Eleven studies were included for qualitative analysis. Nine studies concluded that PwCF had a higher prevalence of enamel defects than control people and one study found no difference in cystic fibrosis (CF) status. All studies had a risk of bias that may influence study results and their interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the systematic review show a consistent pattern that PwCF have a higher prevalence of DDE than people without CF. Genetic dysfunction, chronic systemic infections, and long-term antibiotic use are possible aetiological causes. This review highlights the need for future studies to investigate if DDEs are caused by the underlying CFTR mutation or as a consequence of disease manifestations and/or management.

Health policy and regulations in Seychelles - barriers and opportunities for oral health inclusion.

BACKGROUND: Successful and inclusive policies that embrace oral health as part of the health agenda have the potential to alleviate the burden of oral diseases and to promote dental public health. This study aimed to understand the factors influencing the inclusion of oral health in health and public policy and regulations in the Seychelles. The barriers and opportunities for inclusion / non-inclusion as well as the impact thereof were explored. METHODOLOGY: A qualitative approach was adopted using document analysis and interviews as data collection strategies to allow for a complete analysis of the research problem. Using a purposive sampling approach, individual face to face interviews were conducted with patients, dental staff and representatives of the upper management. Policy and related oral health statistical documents were reviewed to ascertain how oral health was located and implemented from a national to a district level. Thematic analysis and content analysis were used to analyse and interpret the qualitative data. RESULTS: The study provided insight on how oral health is contextualised in the Seychelles and how public policy and strategic documents influences the oral health outcomes. There is fragmentation in how the health and oral health agendas are managed and it is coupled with a severe lack of involvement and commitment to address the latter. CONCLUSION: Oral health needs to be integrated in all relevant policies and public health programmes as part of the broader national NCDs in Seychelles in order reduce the incidence of oral diseases in the population.

[Tabacco harm reduction: the need for a paradigm shift in German tobacco control policy]. / Tabak Harm Reduction: Die Notwendigkeit eines Paradigmenwechsels in der deutschen Tabakkontrollpolitik.

The consumption of tobacco continues to be the greatest preventable health risk in Germany. Every year, more than 127,000 people die prematurely as a result of using tobacco - one in five new cases of cancer is a consequence of smoking. Germany's current tobacco control policy, consisting of advertising bans, the promotion of smoke-free environments, and an abstinence-only paradigm, are only able to initiate slow change. Other countries have shown how the number of smokers can be reduced and deaths prevented by integrating harm reduction as a complementary measure and providing a much more active support for people who want to quit. This article first presents the current situation and current measures in Germany. Then recommendations for changes to the current tobacco control policy in Germany are derived from a look at the United Kingdom, which is considered a pioneer throughout Europe with its tobacco control policy, as well as a summary of the current state of research.

COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting.

Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 through to mid-2021, much of the Australian population lived in a COVID-19-free environment. This followed the broadly successful implementation of a strong suppression strategy, including international border closures. With the availability of COVID-19 vaccines in early 2021, the national government sought to transition from a state of minimal incidence and strong suppression activities to one of high vaccine coverage and reduced restrictions but with still-manageable transmission. This transition is articulated in the national 're-opening' plan released in July 2021. Here, we report on the dynamic modelling study that directly informed policies within the national re-opening plan including the identification of priority age groups for vaccination, target vaccine coverage thresholds and the anticipated requirements for continued public health measures-assuming circulation of the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant. Our findings demonstrated that adult vaccine coverage needed to be at least 60% to minimize public health and clinical impacts following the establishment of community transmission. They also supported the need for continued application of test-trace-isolate-quarantine and social measures during the vaccine roll-out phase and beyond.

Attempted suicide rates before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: interrupted time series analysis of a nationally representative sample.

BACKGROUND: To characterize the association between the protracted biopsychosocial coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic exposures and incident suicide attempt rates. METHODS: Data were from a nationally representative cohort based on electronic health records from January 2013 to February 2021 (N = 852 233), with an interrupted time series study design. For the primary analysis, the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on incident suicide attempts warranting in-patient hospital treatment was quantified by fitting a Poisson regression and modeling the relative risk (RR) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Scenarios were forecast to predict attempted suicide rates at 10 months after social mitigation strategies. Fourteen sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results. RESULTS: Despite the increasing trend in the unexposed interval, the interval exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic was statistically significant (p < 0.001) associated with a reduced RR of incident attempted suicide (RR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.52-0.78). Consistent with the primary analysis, sensitivity analysis of sociodemographic groups and methodological factors were statistically significant (p < 0.05). No effect modification was identified for COVID-19 lockdown intervals or COVID-19 illness status. All three forecast scenarios at 10 months projected a suicide attempt rate increase from 12.49 (7.42-21.01) to 21.38 (12.71-35.99). CONCLUSIONS: The interval exposed to the protracted mass social trauma of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a lower suicide attempt rate compared to the unexposed interval. However, this trend is likely to reverse 10 months after lifting social mitigation policies, underscoring the need for enhanced implementation of public health policy for suicide prevention.

Malaria control and elimination in Kenya: economy-wide benefits and regional disparities.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a public health problem in Kenya despite several concerted control efforts. Empirical evidence regarding malaria effects in Kenya suggests that the disease imposes substantial economic costs, jeopardizing the achievement of sustainable development goals. The Kenya Malaria Strategy (2019-2023), which is currently being implemented, is one of several sequential malaria control and elimination strategies. The strategy targets reducing malaria incidences and deaths by 75% of the 2016 levels by 2023 through spending around Kenyan Shillings 61.9 billion over 5 years. This paper assesses the economy-wide implications of implementing this strategy. METHODS: An economy-wide simulation model is calibrated to a comprehensive 2019 database for Kenya, considering different epidemiological zones. Two scenarios are simulated with the model. The first scenario (GOVT) simulates the annual costs of implementing the Kenya Malaria Strategy by increasing government expenditure on malaria control and elimination programmes. The second scenario (LABOR) reduces malaria incidences by 75% in all epidemiological malaria zones without accounting for the changes in government expenditure, which translates into rising the household labour endowment (benefits of the strategy). RESULTS: Implementing the Kenya Malaria Strategy (2019-2023) enhances gross domestic product at the end of the strategy implementation period due to more available labour. In the short term, government health expenditure (direct malaria costs) increases significantly, which is critical in controlling and eliminating malaria. Expanding the health sector raises the demand for production factors, such as labour and capital. The prices for these factors rise, boosting producer and consumer prices of non-health-related products. Consequently, household welfare decreases during the strategy implementation period. In the long run, household labour endowment increases due to reduced malaria incidences and deaths (indirect malaria costs). However, the size of the effects varies across malaria epidemiological and agroecological zones depending on malaria prevalence and factor ownership. CONCLUSIONS: This paper provides policymakers with an ex-ante assessment of the implications of malaria control and elimination on household welfare across various malaria epidemiological zones. These insights assist in developing and implementing related policy measures that reduce the undesirable effects in the short run. Besides, the paper supports an economically beneficial long-term malaria control and elimination effect.

Green sleep: Immediate residential greenspace and access to larger green areas are associated with better sleep quality, in a longitudinal population-based cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Sleep is pivotal to health, wellbeing and functioning in daily life, but sleep difficulties are common and may be affected by modifiable qualities in the residential surrounding environment, in terms of greenspace. However, population-based studies on individual-level greenspace and sleep are limited. The objective of the current study was thus to investigate prospective associations between fine-grained individual-level residential greenspace and sleep, and moderating effects of life style (physical activity, work status) and sex, in a nationwide population-based Swedish cohort. METHODS: Participants of the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health (SLOSH)-a population-based sample of adults in Sweden-were studied during 2014-2018 (19,375 individuals; 43,062 observations). Residential greenspace land cover, and coherent green area size, were assessed via high resolution geographic information systems, at 50, 100, 300, 500 and 1000 m buffers around residences. Prospective greenspace and sleep associations were assessed via multilevel general linear models, adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic (individual and neighborhood), life style and urban factors. RESULTS: Higher greenspace availability in the immediate residential surroundings (50 m and 100 m buffer zones) was associated with less sleep difficulties, even after adjustment for confounders. Greenspace effects were generally greater among non-working individuals. Among the physically active, and among non-working, greenspace and green area size further away from home (300, 500 and 1000 m, i.e. dependent on mobility) were also associated with less sleep difficulties. CONCLUSIONS: Residential greenspace in the immediate residential surroundings is associated with significantly less sleep difficulties. Greenspace further away from home was associated with better sleep especially among the physically active, and non-working individuals. The results highlight the importance of greenspace in the immediate residential-surrounding environment for sleep, and the need to integrate health and environmental policies, urban planning and greening.

Acceptability and perceived harm of calorie labeling and other obesity policies: A cross-sectional survey study of UK adults with eating disorders and other mental health conditions.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed perceptions of recently proposed UK obesity policies (mandatory calorie labeling, banning of advertisements of unhealthy food and drinks online and before 9 pm on TV, and banning "buy one get one free" deals for unhealthy food and drinks) in people with an eating disorder (ED) and other mental health conditions. METHOD: A total of 1273 participants with a self-reported lifetime mental health condition (N = 583 with an ED) completed an online survey in September-November 2022. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine support for and potential adverse effects of policies in participants with and without an ED. A qualitative analysis of the potential effects of the policy on current ED symptoms was also conducted to better understand how and why policies may be damaging or beneficial. RESULTS: Participants with an ED had a lower level of support for the implementation of the calorie labeling policy compared to those without an ED (43% vs. 58%). Half of the participants with an ED (55%) reported that labeling may worsen their ED symptoms. Qualitative data indicated perceived potential harm (e.g., a gateway to relapse, negative effects on mood) and perceived benefits (e.g., feeling informed and reassured) of calorie labeling in participants with an ED. No differences in support or perceived harms of the other two policies were observed between participants with versus without an ED. DISCUSSION: Future studies are warranted to explore the potential effects of calorie labeling and how to mitigate negative impacts on people with an ED. PUBLIC SIGNIFICANCE: This research is the first to assess the perceptions of UK obesity-related policies in people with an ED and other mental health conditions. Participants with an ED (vs. without) were more likely to disagree with the government implementing the calorie labeling policy. These findings highlight the potentially harmful effects of calorie labeling in people with an ED and the need for future research to understand how to mitigate negative impacts.

What works in advocating for food advertising policy change across an english region - a realist evaluation.

BACKGROUND: With increasing recognition of the role of commercial determinants of health, local areas in England have sought to restrict the advertising of products high in fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) on council-owned spaces, as part of wider strategies to reduce obesity. While there is some evidence of the impact of such policy change on behaviour, little is known about what works in the process of implementing this policy change. METHODS: Guided by a realist evaluation framework that explores the interaction between context, mechanism and outcomes, this study aims to investigate the factors that influence the restriction of outdoor advertising of HFSS products in one region in England. It refines a programme theory co-produced with stakeholders from 14 local authorities within a region and uses multiple data sources from each area with an in-depth examination of four case study sites. Data sources include longitudinal realist interviews, focus groups and surveys with policy advocates and policy stakeholders. Data were analysed retroductively to understand the causal link between context, mechanism and outcomes. RESULTS: Outcomes were driven by five dominant mechanisms: a strategic and staggered approach to stakeholder engagement, gathering intelligence, identifying policy champions, building relationships, reframing the issue; and two secondary mechanisms of amplifying the issue and increasing public will. These led to varied outcomes with no changes in formal policy position within the evaluation period but draft policy guidance in place and changes in political will demonstrated. Dominant context factors influencing change included having a named and resourced policy advocate in place supported by an external Community of Improvement and having existing aligned local objectives. Organisational complexity and change, financial concerns, lack of local examples, ideological positions and the pandemic were also influencing contextual factors. CONCLUSION: Effecting policy change in this area requires the commitment of an extended period and the valuing of short-term policy outcomes, such as increasing political will. The importance of a resourced and well-supported policy advocate to lead this work is fundamental and the commercially sensitive nature of this policy change means that a complex interplay of mechanisms is required which may be dominated by a strategically staggered approach to stakeholder engagement.

Fine-grained mathematical modeling for cost-effectiveness evaluation of public health policies for cervical cancer, with application to a Colombian case study.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer (CC) is globally ranked fourth in terms of incidence and mortality among women. Vaccination against Human Papillomavirus (HPV) and screening programs can significantly reduce CC mortality rates. Hence, executing cost-effective public health policies for prevention and surveillance is crucial. However, defining policies that make the best use of the available resources is not easy, as it requires predicting the long-term costs and results of interventions on a changing population. Since the simpler task of predicting the results of public health policies is difficult, devising those that make the best usage of available resources is an arduous challenge for decision-makers. METHODS: This paper proposes a fine-grained epidemiological simulation model based on differential equations, to effectively predict the costs and effectiveness of CC public health policies that include vaccination and screening. The model represents population dynamics, HPV transmission within the population, likelihood of infection clearance, virus-induced appearance of precancerous lesions and eventually CC, as well as immunity gained with vaccination and early detection with screening. RESULTS: We offer a compartmentalized modeling approach that separates population, epidemics, and intervention concerns. We instantiate models with actual data from a Colombian case study and analyze their results to show how our modeling approach can support CEA studies. Moreover, we implement models in an open-source software tool to simultaneously define and evaluate multiple policies. With the support of the tool, we analyze 54 policies within a 30-year time horizon and use as a comparator the CC policy that has been used until recently. We identify 8 dominant policies, the best one with an ICER of 6.3 million COP (Colombian Pesos) per averted DALY. We also validate the modeling approach against the available population and HPV epidemic data. The effects of uncertainty in the values of key parameters (discount rate, sensitivity of screening tests) is evaluated through one-way sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our modeling approach can provide valuable support for healthcare decision-makers. The implementation into an automated tool allows customizing the analysis with country-specific data, flexibly defining public health policies to be evaluated, and conducting disaggregate analyses of their cost and effectiveness.

Having a real say: findings from first nations community panels on pandemic influenza vaccine distribution.

BACKGROUND: Recent deliberations by Australian public health researchers and practitioners produced an ethical framework of how decisions should be made to distribute pandemic influenza vaccine. The outcome of the deliberations was that the population should be considered in two categories, Level 1 and Level 2, with Level 1 groups being offered access to the pandemic influenza vaccine before other groups. However, the public health researchers and practitioners recognised the importance of making space for public opinion and sought to understand citizens values and preferences, especially First Nations peoples. METHODS: We conducted First Nations Community Panels in two Australian locations in 2019 to assess First Nations people's informed views through a deliberative process on pandemic influenza vaccination distribution strategies. Panels were asked to make decisions on priority levels, coverage and vaccine doses. RESULTS: Two panels were conducted with eighteen First Nations participants from a range of ages who were purposively recruited through local community networks. Panels heard presentations from public health experts, cross-examined expert presenters and deliberated on the issues. Both panels agreed that First Nations peoples be assigned Level 1 priority, be offered pandemic influenza vaccination before other groups, and be offered two doses of vaccine. Reasons for this decision included First Nations people's lives, culture and families are important; are at-risk of severe health outcomes; and experience barriers and challenges to accessing safe, quality and culturally appropriate healthcare. We found that communication strategies, utilising and upskilling the First Nations health workforce, and targeted vaccination strategies are important elements in pandemic preparedness and response with First Nations peoples. CONCLUSIONS: First Nations Community Panels supported prioritising First Nations peoples for pandemic influenza vaccination distribution and offering greater protection by using a two-dose full course to fewer people if there are initial supply limitations, instead of one dose to more people, during the initial phase of the vaccine roll out. The methodology and findings can help inform efforts in planning for future pandemic vaccination strategies for First Nations peoples in Australia.