Analysis of Virus Population Profiles within Pigs Infected with Virulent Classical Swine Fever Viruses: Evidence for Bottlenecks in Transmission but Absence of Tissue-Specific Virus Variants.

Classical swine fever virus (CSFV) contains a specific motif within the E2 glycoprotein that differs between strains of different virulence. In the highly virulent CSFV strain Koslov, this motif comprises residues S763/L764 in the polyprotein. However, L763/P764 represent the predominant alleles in published CSFV genomes. In this study, changes were introduced into the CSFV strain Koslov (here called vKos_SL) to generate modified CSFVs with substitutions at residues 763 and/or 764 (vKos_LL, vKos_SP, and vKos_LP). The properties of these mutant viruses, in comparison to those of vKos_SL, were determined in pigs. Each of the viruses was virulent and induced typical clinical signs of CSF, but the vKos_LP strain produced them significantly earlier. Full-length CSFV cDNA amplicons (12.3 kb) derived from sera of infected pigs were deep sequenced and cloned to reveal the individual haplotypes that contributed to the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) profiles observed in the virus population. The SNP profiles for vKos_SL and vKos_LL displayed low-level heterogeneity across the entire genome, whereas vKos_SP and vKos_LP displayed limited diversity with a few high-frequency SNPs. This indicated that vKos_SL and vKos_LL exhibited a higher level of fitness in the host and more stability at the consensus level, whereas several consensus changes were observed in the vKos_SP and vKos_LP sequences, pointing to adaptation. For each virus, only a subset of the variants present within the virus inoculums were maintained in the infected pigs. No clear tissue-dependent quasispecies differentiation occurred within inoculated pigs; however, clear evidence for transmission bottlenecks to contact animals was observed, with subsequent loss of sequence diversity.IMPORTANCE The surface-exposed E2 protein of classical swine fever virus is required for its interaction with host cells. A short motif within this protein varies between strains of different virulence. The importance of two particular amino acid residues in determining the properties of a highly virulent strain of the virus has been analyzed. Each of the different viruses tested proved highly virulent, but one of them produced earlier, but not more severe, disease. By analyzing the virus genomes present within infected pigs, it was found that the viruses which replicated within inoculated animals were only a subset of those within the virus inoculum. Furthermore, following contact transmission, it was shown that a very restricted set of viruses had transferred between animals. There were no significant differences in the virus populations present in various tissues of the infected animals. These results indicate mechanisms of virus population change during transmission between animals.

Classical swine fever in India: current status and future perspective.

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a globally significant disease of swine caused by classical swine fever virus. The virus affects the wild boars and pigs of all age groups, leading to acute, chronic, late-onset or in-apparent course of the disease. The disease causes great economic loss to the piggery industry due to mortality, stunted growth, poor reproductive performance, and by impeding the international trade of pig and pig products. In India, CSF outbreaks are reported from most of the states wherever pig rearing is practiced and more frequently from northeast states. In spite of the highly devastating nature and frequent outbreaks, CSF remained underestimated and neglected for decades in India. The country requires rapid and sensitive diagnostic tests for an early detection of infection to limit the spread of the disease. Also, effective prophylactics are required to help in control and eradication of the disease for the development of the piggery industry. This review looks into the economic impact; epidemiology of CSF highlighting the temporal and spatial occurrence of outbreaks in the last two decades, circulation, and emergence of the virus genotypes in and around the country; and the constraints in the disease control, with the aim to update the knowledge of current status of the disease in India. The article also emphasizes the importance of the disease and the need to develop rapid specific diagnostics and effective measures to eradicate the disease.

Course and transmission characteristics of oral low-dose infection of domestic pigs and European wild boar with a Caucasian African swine fever virus isolate.

In 2007, African swine fever virus (ASFV) was introduced into the Transcaucasian countries and Russia. Since then, it has spread alarmingly and reached the European Union. ASFV strains are highly virulent and lead to almost 100% mortality under experimental conditions. However, the possibility of dose-dependent disease courses has been discussed. For this reason, a study was undertaken to assess the risk of chronic disease and the establishment of carriers upon low-dose oronasal infection of domestic pigs and European wild boar. It was demonstrated that very low doses of ASFV are sufficient to infect especially weak or runted animals by the oronasal route. Some of these animals did not show clinical signs indicative of ASF, and they developed almost no fever. However, no changes were observed in individual animal regarding the onset, course and outcome of infection as assessed by diagnostic tests. After amplification of ASFV by these animals, pen- and stablemates became infected and developed acute lethal disease with similar characteristics in all animals. Thus, we found no indication of prolonged or chronic individual courses upon low-dose infection in either species. The scattered onset of clinical signs and pathogen detection within and among groups confirms moderate contagiosity that is strongly linked with blood contact. In conclusion, the prolonged course at the "herd level" together with the exceptionally low dose that proved to be sufficient to infect a runted wild boar could be important for disease dynamics in wild-boar populations and in backyard settings.

A systems approach to the policy-level risk assessment of exotic animal diseases: network model and application to classical swine fever.

Exotic animal diseases (EADs) are characterized by their capacity to spread global distances, causing impacts on animal health and welfare with significant economic consequences. We offer a critique of current import risk analysis approaches employed in the EAD field, focusing on their capacity to assess complex systems at a policy level. To address the shortcomings identified, we propose a novel method providing a systematic analysis of the likelihood of a disease incursion, developed by reference to the multibarrier system employed for the United Kingdom. We apply the network model to a policy-level risk assessment of classical swine fever (CSF), a notifiable animal disease caused by the CSF virus. In doing so, we document and discuss a sequence of analyses that describe system vulnerabilities and reveal the critical control points (CCPs) for intervention, reducing the likelihood of U.K. pig herds being exposed to the CSF virus.

Abrogation of the RNase activity of Erns in a low virulence classical swine fever virus enhances the humoral immune response and reduces virulence, transmissibility, and persistence in pigs.

The prevalence of low virulence classical swine fever virus (CSFV) strains makes viral eradication difficult in endemic countries. However, the determinants for natural CSFV attenuation and persistence in the field remain unidentified. The aim of the present study was to assess the role of the RNase activity of CSFV Erns in pathogenesis, immune response, persistent infection, and viral transmission in pigs. To this end, a functional cDNA clone pPdR-H30K-36U with an Erns lacking RNase activity was constructed based on the low virulence CSFV field isolate Pinar de Rio (PdR). Eighteen 5-day-old piglets were infected with vPdR-H30K-36U. Nine piglets were introduced as contacts. The vPdR-H30K-36U virus was attenuated in piglets compared to the parental vPdR-36U. Only RNA traces were detected in sera and body secretions and no virus was isolated from tonsils, showing that RNase inactivation may reduce CSFV persistence and transmissibility. The vPdR-H30K-36U mutant strongly activated the interferon-α (IFN-α) production in plasmacytoid dendritic cells, while in vivo, the IFN-α response was variable, from moderate to undetectable depending on the animal. This suggests a role of the CSFV Erns RNase activity in the regulation of innate immune responses. Infection with vPdR-H30K-36U resulted in higher antibody levels against the E2 and Erns glycoproteins and in enhanced neutralizing antibody responses when compared with vPdR-36U. These results pave the way toward a better understanding of viral attenuation mechanisms of CSFV in pigs. In addition, they provide novel insights relevant for the development of DIVA vaccines in combination with diagnostic assays for efficient CSF control.

[Severe clinical problems lasting several weeks on a multiplier pig farm: what if it had been classical swine fever?]. / Ernstige klinische problemen gedurende meerdere weken op een varkensbedrijf: wat als het KVP was geweest?

In the Spring of 2009, a veterinarian reported suspected classical swine fever (CSF) on a multiplier pig farm in the southern part of The Netherlands (close to the Belgian border). Over a 5-week period there had been a number of sick sows and an excessively high percentage of stillborn and preterm piglets. Sick animals were treated with anti-inflammatory drugs and antibiotics, but did not respond as well as anticipated. A visiting specialist team from the Food Safety Authority could not exclude CSF as the cause of the clinical problems and sent blood samples to the reference laboratory in Lelystad for a PCR test on CSF antigen. Fortunately, test results obtained 6 hours later were negative for CSF, and the disease control measures were lifted. It later appeared that porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRSV) might have been responsible for the problems. But what if CSF had caused the clinical problems? A CSF-transmission model was used to simulate CSF outbreaks dependent on the duration of the high-risk period (HRP). As the duration of the HRP increased, there was an exponential growth in the number of pig farms infected during this period. Simulations also showed that with a longer HRP, the virus spread over greater distances from the source herd. It was also investigated whether a possible CSF outbreak could be detected on the basis of an increased mortality and hence increased number of cadavers sent to a rendering plant. However, the calculated mortality incidence was not sensitive enough to serve as an alarm signal. It is recommended that CSF-exclusion diagnostics be used much earlier in similar clinical situations on pig farms.

Estimation of infection risk on pig farms in infected wild boar areas-Epidemiological analysis for the reemergence of classical swine fever in Japan in 2018.

In September 2018, classical swine fever (CSF) reemerged in Japan after 26 years' absence. The first case was detected at a pig farm in Gifu Prefecture, in the center of Japan, and the disease spread to both domestic pigs and wild boar (Sus scrofa). The spread of CSF in wild boar is extremely difficult to control and is thus a great threat to domestic pig farms, and understanding the transmission risk from wild boar to domestic pigs is essential to implement effective control measures that will prevent domestic pig infection. Therefore, this study elucidates the transmission risk from wild boar to domestic pigs by introducing a transmission kernel that is dependent on the distance between infected wild boar and pig farms, and then estimating the risk area of infection from wild boar by describing the transmission probability. The study used epidemiological data from Gifu Prefecture in the period from September 2018 to March 2019, including a total of 171 1-km grid cells where an infected wild boar was detected and pig farm data from 13 infected and 34 uninfected farms. The estimated infection risk area within 28 days matched well with the observed data. The risk area widened gradually during the epidemic, and at the end of March, the risk area extended over a range of approximately 75 km from east to west and 40 km from north to south (almost 3000 km2). Ten out of the 13 infected farms and four out of the 34 uninfected farms were located within the high-risk area (>60 % infection probability). In contrast, one infected farm and 18 uninfected farms were located within the low-risk area (<5 % infection probability). When several infected grid cells were detected within 5 km of a pig farm, the risk of infection from wild boar within 28 days was more than 5 %. This analysis provides an estimate of the potential spatial range over which CSF virus can spread between wild boar and domestic pig farms, and can be used to inform the early detection of CSF-suspected pigs and the strengthening of biosecurity measures that will effectively prevent and control the disease based on the infection risk level.

A stochastic model to quantify the risk of introduction of classical swine fever virus through import of domestic and wild boars.

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a disease of pigs that imposes major hardship on the industry of infected regions. The recent history of CSF epidemics suggests that animal movements remain the main source of CSF virus (CSFV) infection for susceptible populations in Europe. This study presents an assessment of the risk of introducing CSFV into Spain through the importation of live susceptible animals. Results suggest that, if prevailing conditions persist, introduction of CSFV into Spain is likely to occur on average every 9 years and that introduction is almost three times more likely to occur via domestic pigs than through wild boars. The highest risk was concentrated in March and in the Northeastern provinces of Spain. Results were consistent with the time and location of previous CSFV introductions into the country. The methodology and the results presented here will contribute to improve the CSF prevention programme in Spain.

Quantification of classical swine fever virus in aerosols originating from pigs infected with strains of high, moderate or low virulence.

During epidemics of classical swine fever (CSF), the route of virus introduction into a farm is often unclear. One of the suggested routes is via the air. Under experimental conditions, airborne transmission over a short distance seems possible, but analysis of outbreak data is still inconclusive. For a better understanding of the role of airborne transmission, quantitative information is needed on concentrations of virus emitted by infected pigs. This was studied in four groups of 10 pigs in which three pigs were inoculated with either a low virulent strain (Zoelen), a low or high dose of a moderately virulent strain (Paderborn), or a highly virulent strain (Brescia). The other seven pigs in each group served as contact pigs. At several moments after infection, air samples were obtained using gelatine filters. Infectious virus and viral RNA were detected in the air of rooms housing the pigs infected with the moderately and highly virulent strains with titres of 10(1.2) to 10(3.0)TCID(50)/m(3) of infectious virus, and 10(1.6) to 10(3.8)TCID(50)equiv./m(3) of viral RNA. It was observed that the higher the dose or virulence of the virus strain used for inoculation of the pigs, the sooner virus could be detected in the air samples. This is the first study describing the quantification of (infectious) CSFV in air samples of rooms housing infected pigs, enabling to quantify the contribution of individual infected pigs to virus concentrations in aerosols. This can be used as input for quantitative models of airborne spread over large distances.

Dynamics of virus excretion via different routes in pigs experimentally infected with classical swine fever virus strains of high, moderate or low virulence.

Classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is transmitted via secretions and excretions of infected pigs. The efficiency and speed of the transmission depends on a multitude of parameters, like quantities of virus excreted by infected pigs. This study provides quantitative data on excretion of CSFV over time from pigs infected with a highly, moderately or low virulent strain. For each strain, five individually housed pigs were infected. Virus excretion was quantified in oropharyngeal fluid, saliva, nasal fluid, lacrimal fluid, faeces, urine and skin scraping by virus titration and quantitative Real-Time Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (qRRT-PCR). Infectious virus was excreted in all secretions and excretions of pigs infected with the highly and moderately virulent strain, while excretion from pigs infected with the low virulent strain was mostly restricted to the oronasal route. Pigs infected with the highly virulent strain excreted significantly more virus in all their secretions and excretions over the entire infectious period than pigs infected with the moderately or low virulent strains. An exception were the pigs that developed the chronic form of infection after inoculation with the moderately virulent strain. During the entire infectious period, they excreted the largest amounts of virus via most secretions and excretions, as they excreted virus continuously and for a long duration. This study highlights the crucial role chronically infected pigs may play in the transmission of CSFV. Furthermore, it demonstrates the importance of discriminating between strains and the clinical appearance of infection when using excretion data for modelling.

Comparison of viraemia- and clinical-based estimates of within- and between-pen transmission of classical swine fever virus from three transmission experiments.

Analyses of recent classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics in the European Union have shown that silent circulation of CSF virus (CSFV) occurs before the first outbreak is detected and this may lead to a large epidemic. However, severity of CSF disease signs may be linked with efficacy of disease transmission, the most severely affected animals having a higher infectivity than the less affected ones. The purpose of this study was to combine disease transmission quantification methods with CSF clinical signs quantification tools to investigate whether clinical signs, considered as infectivity markers, may allow us to calculate reliable estimates for disease transmission parameters. Data from three transmission experiments were used, varying according to the viral strain (Eystrup or Paderborn) and to the contact structure between experimentally inoculated and contact animals (direct or indirect contact). Within- and between-pen basic reproduction ratios (R0) were compared using viraemia data or clinical data. Between-pen R0 estimates were close and not significantly >1, with either strain or computation mode (using viraemia or clinical data). Conversely, within-pen R0s (Paderborn strain) computed using clinical data appeared higher than the estimates obtained using viraemia data. A models comparison (Bayes information criterion) showed a better fit of the clinical-based models, for both strains. This suggests that, in affected herds, the most severely affected animals could play a prominent role in CSFV transmission.

Could African swine fever and classical swine fever viruses enter into the United States via swine products carried in air passengers' luggage?

On average 8,000 pork derived products are annually confiscated by Customs and Border Protection at the United States (US) ports of entry such as international airports, harbours or mail offices. These swine products with unknown sanitary status could pose a risk for foreign animal diseases introduction into the US. This study aimed at analysing the risk of African swine fever virus (ASFV) and classical swine fever virus (CSFV) being introduced into the US through prohibited swine products carried by air passengers (PSPAP) and identifying locations and time periods at higher risk where and when preventive and mitigation measures should be implemented. Our results estimated that the risk for CSFV entry was seven times higher and further spread between US airports than for ASFV. Specifically, the overall mean annual probability of ASFV entry was estimated as 0.061 at 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.007, 0.216] while the probability of CSFV entry was estimated as 0.414 (95% CI [0.074, 1]). For both diseases, July and May were the months at highest risk for entry. For ASFV, the origin countries of those PSPAP that represented the highest risk (above 70% of the total risk) were Ghana, Cape Verde, Ethiopia and the Russian Federation, while for CSFV above 90% of the risk at origin was concentrated in the Dominican Republic and Cuba, followed by India, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and China. These results could be used to implement and feed real time surveillance systems, which could potentially help customs to increase the detection rate of smuggled products, indicating when and where to look for them. Similarly, these systems could be adapted and implemented to other diseases improving the cost-effectiveness of the resources invested in preventing entrance of diseases via air passengers' luggage.

Experimental infection of pigs with a classical swine fever virus isolated in Japan for the first time in 26 years.

Following an outbreak of classical swine fever (CSF) in Japan, 2018, CSFV JPN/1/2018 was isolated from an infected pig sample. In this study, we carried out a comparative experimental infection in pigs using this strain and the highly virulent ALD strain and compared outcomes, including clinical manifestation, virus shedding patterns and antibody responses. Although pigs inoculated orally or intramuscularly with JPN/1/2018 developed hyperthermia and had decreased leucocyte numbers, they survived for the whole experimental period and showed less severe clinical signs than those infected with the ALD strain. We confirmed the presence of characteristic multifocal infarction of the margin of the spleen that arises following infection with JPN/1/2018, albeit that this finding was not observed in all infected pigs. Both viruses efficiently spread to contact pigs in a similar manner, suggesting in transmissibility between the two strains. Viral RNAs were detected in all clinical samples, especially whole blood samples, before the pigs developed hyperthermia until at least approximately 2 weeks after inoculation. Our findings will be valuable for the investigations into epidemic events occurring in Japan and for establishing diagnostic strategies and control measures against CSF.

Survival of classical swine fever virus at various temperatures in faeces and urine derived from experimentally infected pigs.

Indirect transmission of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) can occur through contact with mechanical vectors, like clothing and footwear or transport vehicles, contaminated with the secretions or excretions of infected pigs. A prerequisite for indirect transmission is survival of the virus on the mechanical vector. Consequently, to obtain more insight into these transmission routes, it is important to know how long the virus remains viable outside the host. In this study we examined the survival of classical swine fever virus in faeces and urine derived from pigs intranasally inoculated with a highly or moderately virulent CSFV strain. Faeces and urine were collected between days 5 and 36 post-inoculation, and stored at 5, 12, 20, and 30 degrees C. Next, the virus titres were determined in the samples by virus titration, and a random selection of these samples was also analyzed by quantitative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRRT-PCR) to determine the viral RNA decay. Survival curves were generated, and it was shown that the inactivation rate was inversely related to the storage temperature. Average half-life values were between 2 and 4 days at 5 degrees C, and between 1 and 3h at 30 degrees C. Significant differences were observed in survival between virus strains in faeces, however, not in urine. The reduction in viral RNA during the entire study period was limited. This study provided detailed information on survival of CSFV in excretions of infected pigs, which can be used to improve control measures or risk-analysis models.

Detection and quantification of classical swine fever virus in air samples originating from infected pigs and experimentally produced aerosols.

During epidemics of classical swine fever (CSF), neighbourhood infections occurred where none of the 'traditional' routes of transmission like direct animal contact, swill feeding, transport contact or transmission by people could be identified. A hypothesized route of virus introduction for these herds was airborne transmission. In order to better understand this possible transmission route, we developed a method to detect and quantify classical swine fever virus (CSFV) in air samples using gelatine filters. The air samples were collected from CSFV-infected pigs after experimental aerosolization of the virus. Furthermore, we studied the viability of the virus with time in aerosolized state. Three strains of CSFV were aerosolized in an empty isolator and air samples were taken at different time intervals. The virus remained infective in aerosolized state for at least 30 min with half-life time values ranging from 4.5 to 15 min. During animal experiments, concentrations of 10(0.3)-10(1.6)TCID(50)/m(3) CSFV were detected in air samples originating from the air of the pig cages and 10(0.4)-10(4.0)TCID(50)/m(3) from the expired air of infected animals. This is the first study describing the isolation and quantification of CSFV from air samples originating from infected pigs and their cages, supporting previous findings that airborne transmission of CSF is feasible.

Quantitative assessment of the likelihood of the introduction of classical swine fever virus into the Danish swine population.

Classical swine fever virus (CSFV) is a major infectious-disease agent of livestock and causes production losses through increased morbidity and mortality, particularly of young pigs. We identified the pathways for introduction of CSFV into Denmark and assessed the annual probability of introduction (based on a US Department of Agriculture model). We developed pathways based on material from scientific articles, reports from veterinary agencies and custom officers, and consultations with experts in the field. Returning livestock trucks and legal meat imports were the most important pathways for CSFV introduction to Denmark from other EU states with predicted overall likelihood of one or more introductions of CSFV within a median of 130 years (46-280) provided mitigating steps, such as cleaning trucks, were maintained to a very high standard. The likelihood would increase dramatically if these activities were abandoned: one or more introductions within a median of 5.2 years (2-14). The predicted risks from live-animal imports and semen were extremely low given the very few imports of these products. The most important countries for Denmark's CSFV risk are Germany and the Netherlands, though this risk is again predicted to be dramatically reduced as long as mitigating activities are maintained. We predicted the risk from illegal movements of pork into Denmark to be low because little pork enters through this route and only a small fraction of this pork would be fed to pigs.

Simulating the spread of classical swine fever virus between a hypothetical wild-boar population and domestic pig herds in Denmark.

Denmark has no free-range wild-boar population. However, Danish wildlife organizations have suggested that wild boar should be reintroduced into the wild to broaden national biodiversity. Danish pig farmers fear that this would lead to a higher risk of introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV), which could have enormous consequences in terms of loss of pork exports. We conducted a risk assessment to address the additional risk of introducing and spreading CSFV due to the reintroduction of wild boar. In this paper, we present the part of the risk assessment that deals with the spread of CSFV between the hypothetical wild-boar population and the domestic population. Furthermore, the economic impact is assessed taking the perspective of the Danish national budget and the Danish pig industry. We used InterSpreadPlus to model the differential classical swine fever (CSF) risk due to wild boar. Nine scenarios were run to elucidate the effect of: (a) presence of wild boar (yes/no), (b) locations for the index case (domestic pig herd/wild-boar group), (c) type of control strategy for wild boar (hunting/vaccination) and (d) presence of free-range domestic pigs. The presence of free-range wild boar was simulated in two large forests using data from wildlife studies and Danish habitat data. For each scenario, we estimated (1) the control costs borne by the veterinary authorities, (2) the control-related costs to farmers and (3) the loss of exports associated with an epidemic. Our simulations predict that CSFV will be transmitted from the domestic pig population to wild boar if the infected domestic pig herd is located close to an area with wild boar (<5 km). If an outbreak begins in the wild-boar population, the epidemic will last longer and will occasionally lead to several epidemics because of periodic transfer of virus from groups of infected wild boar to domestic pig herds. The size and duration of the epidemic will be reduced if there are no free-range domestic pig herds in the area with CSF-infected wild boar. The economic calculations showed that the total national costs for Denmark (i.e. the direct costs to the national budget and the costs to the pig industry) related to an outbreak of CSF in Denmark will be highly driven by the reactions of the export markets and in particular of the non-EU markets. Unfortunately, there is a substantial amount of uncertainty surrounding this issue. If hunting is used as a control measure, the average expenses related to a CSF outbreak will be 40% higher if wild boar are present compared with not present. However, a vaccination strategy for wild boar will double the total costs compared with a hunting strategy.

The local threshold for geographical spread of infectious diseases between farms.

We investigated the influence of the spatial pattern of farms on the geographical spread of infectious livestock diseases, such as classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza in a combined analytical-numerical approach. Our purpose of this paper is to develop a method to identify the areas in which an infection has the potential to spread in an outbreak. In our model, each infected farm can infect neighbouring farms and the probability of transmission is a function of the inter-farm distance (spatial kernel). Therefore, the density of farms in an area is a good indicator for the probability of a major outbreak. In the epidemiological nomenclature, such density corresponds to a local reproduction ratio and we studied the critical behaviour of both the local density and the local reproduction ratio. We found that a threshold can be defined above which major outbreaks can occur, and the threshold value depends on the spatial kernel. Our expression for the threshold value is derived based on scaling arguments and contains two parameters in the exponents of the equation. We estimated these parameters from numerical results for the spatial spread using one particular mathematical function for the form of the spatial kernel. Subsequently, we show that our expression for the threshold using these estimated parameters agrees very well with numerical results for a number of different other functional forms of the spatial kernel (thus suggesting that we are dealing with universal parameters). As an illustration of the practical relevance of the presented method, we calculated the threshold value for avian influenza in the Netherlands and use it to produce a risk map for this disease.

Evidence of indirect transmission of classical swine fever virus through contacts with people.

A strict system for visiting experimentally inoculated and susceptible weaner pigs was used to examine the potential indirect transmission of classical swine fever (CSF) virus by people wearing contaminated boots, gloves and coveralls. The inoculated and susceptible pigs were housed in separate compartments, between which the airborne transmission of the virus was impossible. A worst-case scenario with an intensive visiting protocol and no form of disinfection or hygiene was established. Fifteen days after the pigs were inoculated, infection was detected in one contact pig, and it was concluded that under the conditions of the experiment CSF virus could be transmitted by contact with people.

Descriptive epidemiology of the outbreak of classical swine fever in Catalonia (Spain), 2001/02.

Spain suffered an outbreak of classical swine fever between June 14, 2001 and May 7, 2002, which affected 49 herds; this paper describes the epidemiological characteristics of the 39 herds that were affected in Catalonia, an area of high pig density in the north east of Spain. The outbreak took place in two waves, which affected first the province of Lleida and then Barcelona. A total of 291,058 animals were slaughtered, 59,595 belonging to infected herds; 22 of the infected herds were detected on the basis of clinical suspicion on the part of the farmer or farm veterinarian, and the other 17 were detected by surveillance methods. The transmission of the virus between herds was attributed to the movement of people in 23 per cent of the cases, to animals in 13 per cent, vehicles in 10 per cent, proximity 18 per cent, the pick-up service of the rendering plant in 8 per cent and slurry in 5 per cent; in the other nine herds (23 per cent) the route of entry of the disease could not be established. The viruses isolated in the two waves of the outbreak were 100 per cent homologous and belonged to subgroup 2.3. The origin of the outbreak remains unknown.